What lies ahead, what to do?

We’re going into the 4th week of the Luzon-wide lockdown, or officially known as the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ), in a bid to “flatten the curve” by getting ahead of this lethal coronavirus which causes COVID-19 at the soonest possible time. As of Palm Sunday, the country had 3,246 confirmed cases, 64 recovered, 152 deaths. The ECQ or “Stay Home” strategy aims to deny the virus any chance of infecting us and infecting each other. That way, we ease the burdens of the health sector depleted by death and sidelined frontliners.

  Staying home must be complemented by personal low tech interventions to keep our immune systems healthy through proper hygiene, nutrition, vitamins, physical exercise and sufficient sleep; wearing of face masks, gloves, caps and eye protection when outdoors at the grocery store, drug store or bank; washing of hands; following disinfection procedures.

However, it’s difficult to enforce physical distancing especially in densely populated areas that lack basic services. They’re high risk areas where poverty, hygiene and sanitation are real problems that render the people there vulnerable and exposed. LGUs dispatch disinfection teams with high pressure sprays or cannons but, apparently, such items are limited in quantity. We never imagined we’d be in this situation. It caught us flatfooted. That’s a lesson learned for future risk reduction and crisis management readiness.

Based on the Inter-Agency Task Force’s or IATF’s daily reports, I surmise that we have yet to peak. We don’t know what the real condition of the country is given the limited supply of reliable testing kits, laboratories, and technical experts. Instincts point to a continuing rise compounded by inadequate border controls in our southern backdoor; the risk of infection posed by asymptomatic carriers; lack of imported Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) and life-saving equipment, i.e., ventilators and respirators, since we don’t manufacture them here. I can see a case being made for a Strategic Procurement and National Stockpile.

I concur with Fareed Zakaria’s scholarly estimate of the situation summarized by the title of his April 3 commentary in the Washington Post: “This is just the first in a series of cascading crises.” In summary he says: 

• We’re in the early stages of a series of cascading crises reverberating worldwide.

•  The 1st phase is the current health-care crisis. If I may add, caused by a virus that’s expected to attack in waves. 
• The 2nd phase is a severe global economic recession. 
• The 3rd phase will be an agonizing financial crisis. 
• Oil demand has consequently dropped. Prices are forecasted to drop to $10 ppb, way below break-even of P60 ppb.
• Political turmoil, unemployment, refugees, revolutions, terrorism will surge.
• The world’s awash in debt, approximately $260 trillion, compared to global GDP of around $90-trillion.
• America has abdicated its global leadership and uniting role.

I see a stark parallel here with the flu pandemic about a hundred years ago. The Spanish flu lasted two years (January 1918 to December 1920) where over 500 million people were infected, of which 10%, or 50 million, died worldwide. The Great Depression followed suit. The League of Nations proved inutile. Civil wars erupted. Dictatorships emerged. All that led to World War II. So, it looks like we’re on track for another apocalyptic period. I fret for our OFWs scattered worldwide. They have no survival lifelines, nowhere to go. What to do?

Over here, the government has pretty much been on the ball after a slow start caused by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) prolonged hesitation. But from the time it declared a global health emergency, Mr. Duterte, through the IATF, has been making timely decisions although implementation needs to rise to the occasion. Sloppy so far. The silver lining is that the government, business, and civil society are collaborating to address the gaps in human resources, supplies, and quarantine facilities.

The 30-day ECQ will end on April 14. I read somewhere that to flatten the curve, a 49-day period may be needed provided there’s total cooperation. Other models indicate up to 90-days before the all-clear is given. I believe the IATF will recommend the extension of the ECQ by at least two more weeks. I support the move. While mankind has the smarts to revive businesses and economies, it has yet to find a way to bring the dead back to life. A partial lifting based on false hopes will only lower our guard. Bear in mind that the longer it takes us to “flatten the curve,” the, more will die, and the longer the ECQ period will be.

China is now saying it’s expecting a second wave, a surge of cases from “imported” human transmission amidst suspicions that it has been fudging its data that cost the world precious time to act early against the virus. Singapore and Japan are reporting signs of resurgence. The world’s anticipating the possibility of a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th wave. The world needs a coordinated global lockdown because there are many asymptomatic carriers out there who pose a clear and present danger to human life. Lifting it prematurely will only worsen matters for everyone.

As the ECQ is extended, there is much to do. We need to quickly shift our attention to an equally pressing imperative: save the people impacted by the business shutdowns. We need to get cash and credit pushed to big business, SMEs, and micro-businesses to sustain them and their payrolls; and ensure food security especially for poor communities. We must avert hunger from turning to anger; prevent the business sector, now down on its knees, from totally shutting down; and assure the continuous flow of life-saving goods and services. We need to replenish our depleted frontliners with fresh recruits and volunteers with compensation and benefits.

I end with prayers for those felled by the virus and their families; for our doctors and health workers; our men and women in uniform; other frontliners who keep our supply lines flowing; our national and local officials who are striving to keep our country from collapsing. I pray for our redemption and emergence as a transformed nation. So help us God.