NEW YORK — The global coffee market should see a surplus of 5.26 million 60-kg bags in the 2020/21 season (October-September), above a revised upwards surplus of 4.14 million bags in 2019/20, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in a report on Tuesday.

In its first projection for the 2020/21 season, the ICO said production should reach 171.89 million bags, 1.9% higher than in the previous season, while consumption was seen at 166.62 million bags, 1.3% higher.

“Global demand for coffee is expected to stage a limited recovery as social distancing measures remain in place and the global economy slowly picks up,” the ICO said, adding that the increase in demand will not be enough to improve the market’s balance.

“This could limit further increases in coffee prices later in the coffee year unless demand recovers more quickly than currently anticipated,” the organization said.

Analysts have also predicted a large surplus for 2020/21, with a Reuters poll indicating it at 8 million bags. — Reuters