STATE weather bureau PAGASA has declared the end of the cold weather called La Niña, but its “lag effect” may still bring above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months.
“La Niña (cold phase) condition has ended,” the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its last La Niña advisory.
However, the rains from its lag effect may still potentially lead to “adverse impacts” such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in some highly vulnerable areas.
It said most of the climate models predict that ENSOneutral — meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño — is favored from March through June this year.
There’s an increased likelihood of a transition to El Niño (warm phase) afterwards, it added.
“El Niño, on the other hand, increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative effects (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country,” it added.
In its outlook for March, PAGASA said the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan, is expected to dwindle while winds blowing from the east will become predominant.
It said at least one tropical cyclone may develop this month.
“The rainfall forecast for March shows that generally, most parts of the country will likely experience near to above-normal rainfall conditions except for some provinces over the western section of Northern Luzon and the northern part of Palawan that may receive below-normal to way below-normal rainfall,” it said.
“Also, the probabilistic forecast of near to above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country depicts high confidence for the month of March.”
In a report, the World Economic Forum said 2022 was the third consecutive La Niña year, “which is highly unusual and has only occurred three times since records began in the 1950s.”
Citing climate scientists, it said uncertain changes in La Niña and El Niño patterns “add up to an uncertain outlook for the future.” — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza
