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Industry disputes ASF finding in processed meat

MEAT PROCESSORS are disputing government claims of the detection of African Swine Fever (ASF) in sausages and cured meat, saying that the hog disease can only survive in live hogs and fresh pork.

They asked the government to give specifics on the producer of the meat products where ASF was found.

The Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) issued a laboratory report dated Oct. 15 which returned an ASF finding on products tested like tocino, hot dogs, and sausages. The copy of the report given to reporters did not reveal the manufacturer’s name.

Philippine Association of Meat Processors, Inc. Vice-President Jerome D. Ong told BusinessWorld in a phone interview that only “live hogs and fresh pork have been found to be infected with ASF, and it appears there is an effort to drag with them processed meat which are absolutely safe, and 100% ASF free.”

He said the industry wants the manufacturer identified because “we’re not even sure if it was made by a reputable manufacturer, or if it is a homemade brand.”

“While we acknowledge the authority and the competence of the Bureau of Animal Industry to conduct testing for the presence of the ASF virus, it is important that the manner of securing the samples is also transparent, with presence of all stakeholders and government authorities,” he said.

Department of Agriculture (DA) spokesman Noel O. Reyes confirmed that the products were processed by a medium-sized manufacturer, purchased in Central Luzon, and collected from a port in Calapan, Oriental Mindoro. He did not reveal the name of the manufacturer.

“We received reports that the team of Mindoro quarantine personnel along with NMIS (National Meat Inspection Service) and BAI were able to seize hand-carried items of tocino, hot dogs and other meat products. Kokonti lang, siguro pang home consumption (They were in small amounts, likely for home consumption),” he told reporters.

He said the DA is considering the possibility that hog raisers are keeping the condition of their pigs secret when they sell hogs to traders and manufacturers.

Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG) Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet reiterated the group’s position that processed meat products should not be allowed to cross into other jurisdictions without tests proving that the products are ASF-free.

He said in a text message the BAI finding “demolishes” the processing industry’s claim that ASF cannot be transmitted via processed products.

The hog raising industry is pressing local governments to maintain their bans on the movement of processed meat from ASF-affected areas in Luzon, putting them in conflict with the processors, who insist that their products cannot infect hogs when transported across borders.

The Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) has officially instructed local governments to lift their bans on processed meat products if they are cooked or smoked at certain temperatures and for certain durations, which are assumed to render meat products safe.

The meat processors claim that losing freedom of movement could cost the industry P50 billion in lost sales, particularly with the industry’s strongest sales period — the year-end holidays — coming up.

SINAG has also asked the DA, Department of Health (DoH), and the Bureau of Customs (BoC) to test imported pork products for the disease.

“Importation (of pork) should only be allowed once it can be established that ASF virus testing for all pork imports and pork-based products can be undertaken at the port of first entry,” it said. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Unconditional cash aid for rice farmers to go to worst-affected areas, Finance department says

THE government’s unconditional cash transfer program for farmers will focus on those “most affected” by the Rice Tariffication Law, with the assistance funded by excess collection from rice tariffs, the Department of Finance (DoF) said.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III told reporters late Wednesday that the Department of Agriculture (DA) will compile a list of areas where farmers have been hardest-hit by tariffication, which has liberalized rice imports and weakened the prices they can obtain for their crops.

Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said that the program Mr. Dominguez is referring to is the P5,000 one-time cash assistance program announced last week.

Mr. Dar has said that the cash assistance will require P3 billion. The Rice Tariffication Law imposes tariffs on imported rice — typically 35% for Southeast Asian grain — and the collections support the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund for six years at P10 billion a year. The cash transfer funds will be taken from excess over P10 billion, or after the government meets its RCEF funding obligations.

Mr. Dominguez said that the DA will determine the “most affected farmers” as “not all farmers in the Philippines were affected in the same way.”

“They’re still determining who are the most affected farmers and determining how much they will provide assistance to them. And quite frankly, not all farmers in the Philippines were affected in the same way… The idea is to have those most affected farmers and we will have the budget for it because we are going to be collecting more (from rice tariffs),” he told reporters after the members of the Cabinet’s economic development cluster met Wednesday.

He said that a governor from Central Visayas “assured” him that farmgate palay prices there “have not dropped,” while prices in Mindanao “seem to be holding up.”

The presence of large volumes of rice imports has rendered traders reluctant to offer competitive prices to domestic farmers, with the farmgate price for palay, or unmilled rice, reportedly in the single digits in some provinces, well below the P19 per kilo support price offered by the National Food Authority.

The government has collected P15 billion since March from rice tariffs, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Monetary Board Member Bruce J. Tolentino said at a briefing on Monday.

Asked about the aborted investigation into possible safeguard duties to protect farmers from imports, Mr. Dominguez said Mr. Dar did not bring up the issue during the cluster meeting.

“Apparently they don’t have confidence in pushing this idea and maybe they don’t have all the numbers to their satisfaction. So, we didn’t discuss it today,” he said.

“Decision-making has to be data-driven. I’m sure the DA is looking at the data so we’ll certainly listen to them, if and when they bring it back,” he added. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Superior service seen as key to surviving automation wave — DoT

THE Department of Tourism (DoT) said the industry it oversees can survive a global push for automation by continuing to focus on service quality.

The DoT said Tuesday that it is confident many tourism jobs will survive if the industry maintains a high level of quality for the “Filipino brand of service.”

The DoT released the statement to accompany its announcement of a training partnership with the Tourism Industry Board Foundation, Inc. (TIBFI).

The DoT said it hopes the arrangement will help tourism-industry worker to improve and adapt to changing demands.

To supplement industry training, the DoT urged curriculum updates across the education sector, including the teaching of hospitality skills to K-12 students.

Tourism Undersecretary Arturo P. Boncato, Jr. said: “Tourism is bigger than artificial intelligence. Tourism is bigger than robotics. (Service quality) is something that only human beings can give… It’s all about the human heart. Tourism is all about experience and relationships,” he said.

The department said the industry should still focus on upgrading its technology which will make tasks more efficient. — Gillian M. Cortez

Cigarettes, medicine top counterfeit goods entering the Philippines

DAVAO CITY — Cigarettes and alcohol remain the top counterfeit goods being smuggled into the Philippines, followed closely by fake medicines and personal care products, according to the running tally of the International Property Office of the Philippines (IPOPHL).

Chester Arturo D. Cinco, a division chief with IPOPHL’s Bureau of Trademarks, said it has so far recorded P1.8 billion worth of fake products seized by various government agencies.

Of the total, cigarettes and alcohol accounted for about P456 million, followed closely by pharmaceuticals and personal care products at P455 million. The others are handbags and wallets, P449 million; optical media products, P190 million; and footwear, P130 million.

Mr. Cinco, speaking at a news conference during Wednesday’s opening of a two-day workshop for Law Enforcers and Public Prosecutors on Developments of Intellectual Property Laws and Best Practices here, said this year’s seizures still much lower than 2018’s total of P23.5 billion because the office is still consolidating reports.

“One is we have not received all the reports. The operations of the Bureau of Customs (BoC) a couple of months ago ay hindi pa (are not yet) fully reported… because at the moment they are still doing their inventory and evaluations. Another reason is, it depends on the efforts of the brand owners in enforcing their rights,” he said.

The IPOPHL list is reported and verified by members of the National Committee on Intellectual Property Rights, Food and Drug Administration, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), Optical Media Board, and the BoC.

In 2018, seized cigarettes and alcohol amounted to P20.2 billion; pharmaceutical and personal care products, P1.2 billion; handbags and wallets, P820 million; optical media products, P789 million; and footwear, P190 million.

Halos 80% ay yung pekeng sigarilyo (Almost 80% are fake cigarettes),” IPOPHL Deputy General Director Teodoro C. Pascua said.

He said the government appeals to the public to stop patronizing counterfeit goods, which deprive the country of taxes and affects legitimate manufacturers and traders.

Mr. Cinco said the ongoing workshop in Davao City is intended to increase the awareness and understanding of intellectual property rights (IPR) among law enforcers.

He cited that most seizures in the city, undertaken by members of the NBI and police force, are cosmetic products.

“This is just the start because we have a long way ahead,” Mr. Cinco said.

Ann N. Edillon, a director of IPOPHL’s Bureau of Patents, said they are pushing for the inclusion of IPR in the Philippine National Police’s learning program as well as conducting seminars in schools as part of consumer education.

“Awareness is the number one way to protect the consumers,” she said.

Ms. Edillon also stressed that the government’s campaign against fake products focuses on stopping the source.

Kung hindi mapigilan ang source kahit pa hulihin ang lahat ng small vendors, in a few weeks babalik din ang mga ito (If we don’t stop the source, even if we arrest all the small vendors, in a few weeks the fake goods will be back).”

In the Property Rights Alliance’s 2019 International Property Rights Index, the Philippines ranked 67th among 131 countries, three notches higher than its position at number 70 last year. Within the Asia and Oceania regional grouping composed of 21 countries, the Philippines remained at 14th. — Maya M. Padillo

PHL, China sign feasibility study deals for major projects

THE government signed 10 agreements with China yesterday, including six feasibility studies for two big-ticket infrastructure projects under the “Build, Build, Build” program.

Philippine officials met with Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua yesterday in Manila to discuss the progress of their financing cooperation and development initiatives, the Department of Finance said in a statement late Thursday.

“We welcome this high-level engagement, as we underscore the importance of assessing where we stand, while providing added impetus in our efforts to achieve our objectives and deliverables,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III was quoted as saying.

“I’ll be happy to work together with you, Mr. Secretary, to implement the important consensus of our two heads of state and to promote the better development of our cooperation,” Mr. Hu said.

The officials signed six feasibility study agreements and four agreements dealing with trade, customs and communications.

The feasibility studies include the Davao City Expressway Project and Panay-Guimaras-Negros Island Bridge, both by CCCC Highway Consultants Co., Ltd. and funded by the Chinese government.

Another agreement covered the Chinese donation of broadcasting equipment to the Philippine Broadcasting Service (PBS) of the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) under the Philippine Radio Equipment project.

The donation includes live broadcast room equipment, FM broadcast transmitter equipment and medium wave transmitter equipment, among others.

The Bureau of Customs (BoC) is also to receive container testing equipment, including four sets of mobile container/vehicle inspection system and two sets of CT Scan inspection systems.

Two other agreements cover the Marawi Sports Complex and Central Market Projects, and the Protocol on Phytosanitary Requirements for the Export of Avocado from the Philippines to China. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Sports are feeling the heat from Climate Change

By Adam Minter

CLIMATE CHANGE is likely to melt glaciers, raise sea levels, and obliterate vulnerable species. It may also disrupt venerable sporting traditions. The 2020 Olympic marathon, previously scheduled for Tokyo, is now being relocated to cooler Sapporo, thanks to extreme heatwaves that have killed hundreds and hospitalized thousands in recent years.

It’s no isolated incident. As global temperatures rise, athletic events as diverse as Iditarod races and baseball games are feeling the effects. Sports may seem inconsequential next to other climate disruptions, such as habitat loss or warming seas. But for many people, they offer a far more immediate and tangible reminder of what’s at stake in this crisis. For the sports business, that’s both a challenge and an opportunity.

Anybody who’s experienced a rainout understands the close relationship between sports and the weather. But the threat of climate change really started dawning on the sports world in the late 1990s. In particular, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) began worrying that long-term climate shifts could severely disrupt future games. One study analyzed data from the host cities of 19 previous Winter Olympics and determined that as many as 11 of them wouldn’t be cold enough to host the events by 2050.

Similar worries are spreading throughout the $500-billion global sports business. In Canada, recent studies found that the ski-tourism industry could lose nearly three-quarters of its capacity by mid-century, while the cultural mainstay of outdoor ice hockey is melting away. In Scotland, the world-famous Montrose Links golf course is seriously threatened by rising sea levels and fierce storms that have accelerated coastal erosion and brought the North Sea 220 feet closer to the holes.

Meanwhile soccer, tennis, and cricket are among the prominent team sports adding protocols to protect athletes from the heat and adjusting to more frequent storms, which disrupt competitions and upend lucrative broadcast schedules.

Even before climate change became a global threat, Tokyo was a less-than-ideal location for the Summer Olympics. In 1964, when the city first played host, the games were shifted to the fall to avoid the sweltering heat. Since then, Tokyo has only grown hotter, with August temperatures over the past decade 2.5 degrees higher on average than they were in the decade preceding the previous games. Nationwide, the number of days with extreme heat has been increasing at a steady pace — a phenomenon that’s grabbed global attention thanks to regular deadly heatwaves.

Even so, next year’s games are scheduled for the hottest days of summer. Nobody at the IOC is publicly calling that decision a mistake just yet. But the relocation of the marathon — a signature event that typically concludes the games — is an embarrassing acknowledgement that global warming wasn’t adequately considered when the site was awarded. The good news is that the committee is planning ambitious countermeasures for the heat at next year’s games, and will consider climate change in future site selections.

But it could certainly go further. In 2018, the IOC joined some of the world’s most prominent athletic leagues in establishing the Sports for Climate Action Framework, which aims to bring the sporting world into alignment with the Paris Agreement. It was a reminder that the global sports business is uniquely positioned to educate its unusually dedicated and attentive audiences on climate change and its consequences.

It shouldn’t shy away from doing so. Rather than simply acknowledge Tokyo’s heat, for example, the IOC and its Olympic broadcast partners should explain how much it’s changed in 50 years, and how it affects the performance and safety of athletes and spectators. The relocated marathon offers a good moment to begin this approach, and to show sports fans around the world why climate change is much more than a rain delay.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

No win situation

Not only the credibility of the Duterte regime is at stake in the scandal over the alleged appropriation and sale by 13 so-called “ninja cops” of illegal drugs they had confiscated during an anti-drug operation, as well as resigned Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief Oscar Albayalde’s supposedly preventing their dismissal from the service. On the block as well is whether the PNP should continue as the lead organization in that “war” — or should have even been so designated at all.

Not that doubts have not been raised before about the wisdom of President Rodrigo Duterte’s making the PNP the lead agency in the “war on drugs.” The PNP record of killings it has since accumulated, killings which supposedly occurred when suspected drug users and pushers “fought back,” already argues against it, because of the possibility that most of the killings were deliberate. The current scandal is now saying that some police officers may have even benefitted from the “war” and contributed to the persistence of the drug problem.

There is as well the growing conviction that the police, and hence, the regime they serve, were targeting the poor to the exclusion of the drug lords who have managed to sneak into the country billions of pesos in drugs even while the much hyped up anti-drug campaign was at its most brutal second stage. Neither did Mr. Duterte’s appointing the former head of the Bureau of Customs to another post despite suspicions that he was incompetent if not corrupt help.

It was in the context of widespread skepticism over the sincerity of the regime’s commitment to ending the drug problem that the “ninja cops” scandal broke.

In Japanese history, literature, and folk lore, ninjas or shinobis are not the dashing, romantic figures Hollywood movies have made them out to be. Recruited from the lowest rungs of a society in turmoil, they were trained as spies, assassins, and mercenaries whose criminal services they sold to the highest bidder.

They’re often thought to be another name for samurai by those unfamiliar with the complexity of Japanese feudal society. But the ninjas were often at war with the former, and were considered unworthy of the code of honor of the warrior class of ancient Japan.

In the Hollywood film The Last Samurai, ninjas were thus depicted as treacherous killers in the service of rogue feudal lords who had no compunction about killing women and children so long as it suited their patrons’ intentions

Ninjas have nevertheless been mostly celebrated as heroic figures by Hollywood and US television. There’s a TV series called American Ninja Warrior and even an Australian equivalent. In both programs ninjas are celebrated as great and incredible athletes focused on overcoming the most difficult obstacles and performing impossible feats as excellently as possible.

123VVECTOR/FREEPIK

What to make then of the use of the term “ninja cops” to describe those police officers who profit from the illegal drugs they’ve confiscated during anti-drug operations? There’s no denying the hint of approval in the term — telling proof of the power of the movies and television in propagating the legend about the ninjas’ supposed dexterity in scaling walls, their stealth, their mastery of martial arts, and exceptional athleticism. Additionally, however, in Philippine mass culture, getting away with anything and amassing wealth no matter how and what the source is also admired rather than condemned. In the court of public opinion, grand theft is often regarded as indicative of cunning, initiative, and resourcefulness.

“Ninja cops” is therefore not a pejorative label in police ranks. But as of last week, Senator Richard Gordon, who chairs the Senate Blue Ribbon and Justice and Human Rights Committees, was declaring the guilt of the 13 police officers and recently resigned Philippine National Police Director General Oscar Albayalde. All 13 were allegedly involved in what he said was a 2013 holdup-extortion operation (the street name for it is “hulidap”) in Pampanga province after which over 100 kilos of confiscated drugs went missing.

Gordon was also saying that all those involved deserve life imprisonment as mandated by the Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Act of 2002 (Republic Act 9165) and the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act (RA 3019). The latter provides prison terms of only six to 15 years for those guilty of using their positions to influence responsible officials to act in their behalf. But, said Gordon, Albayalde and company are also in violation of RA 9165, while the former PNP chief would also be liable under the provisions of the Revised Penal Code. If proven in court, these alleged offenses would lead to his imprisonment for life and permanent disqualification from holding public office.

Gordon is a Duterte ally. But despite his committees’ recommendations, it’s still the Department of Justice (DoJ) that will decide whether charges will be filed against Albayalde and the police officers accused of being “ninja cops.” The DOJ is “reinvestigating” the complaint against them. But Secretary Menardo Guevara said Albayalde could be included in an amended complaint “if there’s any basis for it.”

If the DoJ does file charges against Albayalde and company, it will convince even more citizens that the Duterte regime’s bloody “drug war” is not only anti-poor and completely bogus. That it is the PNP rather than the authority mandated by RA 9165, the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA), that’s the lead organization in the enforcement of the law would also validate the conclusion that Mr. Duterte’s choice of police chief made sure that the main plank of his platform of government will fail.

Should the DoJ not find “any basis” for including Albayalde in its “reinvestigation” despite the findings of the Senate Committees, it will reinforce the already current view that only the small fry — in this case the 13 police officers — are ever prosecuted by the so-called Philippine justice system while the big fish nearly always get away with anything, including murder. But if none of the 13 and Albayalde are charged after the “reinvestigation,” the consequences in terms of public opinion will be even more devastating.

It looks like a no-win situation for the DoJ, the PNP, the Duterte regime, and the so-called “war” on drugs.

That “war” has long been under suspicion as false, anti-poor, and a populist attempt to convince Mr. Duterte’s political base that he’s serious about ending the drug problem. In a frantic attempt at damage control, Mr. Duterte apparently convinced his man Albayalde to resign his post only weeks before his retirement, and has threatened to pay back “evil ninja cops” with — whatever it means — the same “evil.” Whether this latest public relations ploy will work is uncertain, given the decline in his approval ratings. Already severely challenged even before Mr. Duterte launched his “war on drugs,” police credibility is also likely to reach sub-basement levels because of the “ninja cops” scandal.

Time passes — and together with it, the slow but certain erosion of the current regime’s support not only among the already skeptical but also among its once ardent partisans. Like the medals Ferdinand Marcos claimed to have amassed for fighting the Japanese during World War II, as brutal and as bloody as it may be, the “war on drugs” is being exposed to the entire country and the world as a fraud and a sham.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Charot!

“Thank God for a man who makes up his mind,” said M once to James Bond. But perhaps the novel, Moonraker, was written at a time when men were men.

For in today’s liberal progressive environment where men are to be emasculated and sentimentality trumps reason, that manly certitude previously admirable is now considered a matter for contempt.

As pointed out here previously (“The coming crisis: the womanization of men,” 2018), “One suspects that the progressive hatred towards men have less to do with the patriarchy than it is to do with virtue. ‘Virtue,’ from the Latin virtus, was derived from vir, which is the Roman word for ‘man.’

“To say ‘virtue’ is thus to refer to the ‘excellent qualities of men, including physical strength, valorous conduct, and moral rectitude’ (see The Merriam-Webster New Book of Word Histories).”

“In short, this attack on men is but a variation of the progressive push for relativism, of rejecting objective moral standards, and the doing away of traditional values. It is essentially to pull apart what made us a society.”

This needs reiteration in light of this month’s most popular word: charot.

The origins of “charot” are as silly, vapid, and idiotic as the word itself. It’s sub-culture slang for (so they say) “joke only.” But really the “joke” part is a lie.

Many who use “charot” don’t really mean it as a joke. Forget for now that dictum that “jokes are half-truths,” a thought too subtle for those peopling the subject matter herein.

Like that equally stupid “my bad” (an unashamed non-apology disguised as an apology), “charot” represents boring uncertainty, a boring inability to commit, a boring and unexciting desire but without the backbone, courage, and intelligence to possess.

Take a sample of charot’s usage: “crush kita, charot!,” “bobo ka, charot!,” “ilibre mo ko dinner, charot!” The person saying this is oft focused on the reaction, deciphering if the words were positively received. “Charot” is the escape route in case of the opposite.

Charot” is not mere kidding around. There is an agenda hidden behind it not found in the ordinary jostling of friends. The proof is the reaction of charot’s utterer: hostility or sullenness when the supposed joke proffered is rejected or (worse) not taken seriously.

Get Real Philippines’ “benign0” correctly identifies “charot” as “a disturbing symptom of a deeper malaise” (“The word ‘charot’ reflects Philippine society’s cowardly COP-OUT culture,” October 2019).

Indeed: “Why say something if you don’t intend to mean it? That, in essence, is the dishonest underpinnings of Charot Culture.”

Similarly, he traces charot to the inability to commit, to make a stand for the declaration made: “This has something to do with the one-dimensional thinking of people who are sub-educated or lack exposure to cultural diversity.”

Socmed commentator Michelle Tolledo, researching for her masters degree in guidance and counselling, found that “more attractive individuals are viewed as more knowledgeable and more persuasive, and are more likely to be sought out by others for political information. In addition, more attractive individuals (even the relatively uninformed) are more likely to report attempting to persuade others” (citing Palmer and Peterson, “Halo Effects and the Attractiveness Premium in Perceptions of Political Expertise,” 2015).

This is relevant as assuredness and confidence in oneself and what one knows is an important component for social discourse. We should also add “social trust.”

Yet “charot,” as “benign0” points out, makes it “hard conversing with people who are incapable of taking even themselves seriously.”

Fairly similar are those beginning their declarations with “I’m not a lawyer (or doctor, economist, soldier, theologian, etc.) but…,” then pontificates exhaustively on a technical subject he knows nothing about. If confronted with the inevitable error, then the equally inevitable defensive response comes: “Well, I’m not a lawyer, etc.”

But what is the point of uttering personal circumstances at all? An opinion is valid (or not) regardless of credentials. Otherwise, it falls into an ad hominem fallacy.

If one wants to speak up and be heard, it means strongly believing in the merit of that which is to be said after thoughtful study and deliberation. If found wrong, one just maturely acknowledges the mistake and moves on.

Otherwise, just shut up.

Charot,” “my bad,” “I’m not a lawyer but…” are all flakey cop-outs, discourse stoppers, a cowardly rejection of responsibility. They are a disrespectful and vulgar use of one’s freedom of expression.

Society cannot be centered on one’s feelings alone. For society to function, all of us need to take responsibility for what we say or do. This means studying and thinking first before speaking or acting.

Like any freedom, its employment should be judicious: just because you have the right to speak doesn’t necessarily mean you should.

If one has to utter “charot,” then the wiser course is silence. Speak later when you are prepared to stand by what you say.

All will be the better for it.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula

From Wyoming to Australia, coal’s heartlands are retreating

By David Fickling

FROM THE Rocky Mountains to the Rhineland and Australia’s Great Dividing Range, the great tide of the coal industry is receding.

The entire Powder River Basin, the region spanning the states of Montana and Wyoming that provides about half of America’s thermal coal, is “distressed,” Moody’s Investors Service wrote in a report last week. All companies producing coal there are now focusing on mining coking coal elsewhere in the US, the ratings company wrote. Output “will likely fall significantly in 2020,” it said.

Energy Information Administration forecasts quoted by Moody’s suggest that production from the Powder River-dominated Western Region will drop to 339 million short tons in 2020 from 418 million short tons in 2018, a 19% reduction and a 42% decline from 592 million short tons in 2010. Most of that decline happened while coal could still produce electricity more cheaply than renewable alternatives, a situation that’s now reversed. A comparable drop over the coming decade would shutter almost every mine in the basin.

In Australia, the world’s second-largest coal exporter after Indonesia, similar trends are afoot. The pipeline of new renewables projects, led by solar farms, now stands at 133 gigawatts, according to research group Rystad Energy. Coupled with a flood of energy-storage projects coming online by 2025, that means that coal-fired generation could be extinct by 2040, the group said Tuesday.

Changes under way in Europe are pointing in the same direction. Germany, long considered one of the rich world’s last redoubts of coal-fired power, is seeing generation plummet as the rising price of carbon credits and falling cost of gas squeeze out profits for generators. Germany’s current-year and next-year dark spreads, which represent the theoretical profit for coal-fired power based on prevailing fuel, electricity and carbon prices, have been in negative territory for much of the year.

Generators RWE AG and Uniper SE are still able to eke out margins by utilizing carbon credits bought in former years when prices were in the region of €5 ($5.57) compared to their current €25.93. Eventually, that stockpile will run out. Unless gas gets more expensive or carbon gets cheaper, the German government’s target for ending coal-fired generation by 2038 is likely to come 15 years or so early.

Remarkably, this trend is even sweeping up brown coal, or lignite, a cheap-and-dirty variety that’s been seen as more resilient than Germany’s costlier black coal. Lignite generation in the six months through June fell 28% from a year earlier at RWE, a drop of 9.9 terawatt-hours.

Even regions that were once viewed as the last hopes for coal demand are looking dicier. The pipeline of thermal power projects under construction in Southeast Asia has fallen to zero this year everywhere except in Indonesia. Even there, the capacity being built is just 1,500 megawatts, equivalent to just five or six power plants, according to a report published Wednesday by Global Energy Monitor, a research group in favor of fossil fuel phase-out.

The world has gone through a remarkable energy transition over the past decade, but much of the shift still lies, iceberg-like, beneath the surface. Renewables are cheaper than coal almost everywhere, a prospect that was considered so improbable at the time of the 2006 Stern Review on climate change that it wasn’t treated as a serious possibility beyond a vague hope that research and development might one day flip the script.

The great hope for coal now is not that it will be able to survive in the free market, but that government support will come in to bail out an industry that can’t survive on its own, in the process locking in pollution-related disease and climate emissions for future generations.

It’s not impossible that this bet will work in a few regions — as exemplified by the speech given last week to China’s National Energy Commission by Li Keqiang, in which the premier sang the praises of domestic coal deposits and stepped back from previous promises to accelerate deployment of renewables.

Any industry that harms its consumers, pollutes the planet and depends for its survival on political support is living on borrowed time, though. The declines to coal-fired power on multiple continents are the death throes of a technology that’s rapidly heading towards obsolescence. Humanity will still struggle to reduce our emissions fast enough to avoid devastating climate change — but don’t be surprised if this industry falls even faster than people have dared to hope.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Iran is losing leverage in Syria

By Bobby Ghosh

IRANIAN PRESIDENT Hassan Rouhani can be forgiven for feeling a twinge of envy as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Sochi to work out a deal for a buffer zone in northeastern Syria. Was his invitation lost in the mail?

Only a few years ago, the Iranian president would have been expected to preside over the negotiations, and sign off on the agreement. The Islamic Republic has been involved in every important discussion bearing on Syria, whether directly or as the elephant in the room, since the start of the civil war. That Putin and Erdogan didn’t require Rouhani’s presence in Sochi, or even his endorsement, says much about Iran’s reduced leverage in the country where it has shed much blood, and spent much treasure.

There are several reasons for this. US sanctions have weakened Iran’s position in Syria: With its economy in free-fall and its people increasingly resentful of expensive foreign adventures, the regime in Tehran cannot match the resources Russia and Turkey can deploy in pursuit of their interests in the country. Iran’s regional ambitions have forced it to spread its reduced resources thin, from Yemen and the Persian Gulf to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

A more proximate cause for Iran’s reduced leverage may be the mass protests that have broken out in Syria’s neighborhood, leaving Tehran’s preferred proxies, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraq’s Shiite militias, somewhat distracted.

Under the circumstances, Putin and Erdogan may have reckoned they could afford to take Iran for granted.

Of course, Iran enjoys cordial relations with both Russia and Turkey; in recent years, the three have bonded over a shared grievance against the US. In Syria, their interests have sometimes coincided. Iran and Russia back the dictator Bashar al-Assad; all three oppose a US military presence on Syrian soil.

But they also compete over Damascus, each viewing Syria as part of its own sphere of influence. The Islamic Republic has older and deeper connections in Syria than Russia. The Shiite regime in Tehran is suspicious of Sunni Turkey’s designs.

And yet, Iran was able to voice only mild dissatisfaction over Erdogan’s invasion of Syria, offering to mediate between the Turks and Syrian Kurds. It has conducted an unannounced military drill along its borders with Turkey, an unsubtle reminder to Erdogan and Putin that they are not the only big guns in the field. But there’s no indication it will move forces into Syria, to expand its own footprint.

Instead the Iranians can only watch anxiously as Russia and Turkey capitalize on the reduced US military presence in Syria to widen their own spheres of influence.

In other circumstances, the Putin-Erdogan deal would have given Iran an opportunity to strengthen its connections to Assad, at Russia’s expense. The sight of Moscow and Ankara carving up a chunk of Syrian soil is not likely to please the dictator of Damascus. On the eve of the meeting in Sochi, he described Erdogan as “a thief of territory.”

Assad’s response to the Turkish invasion has been to make a deal with the Kurds, offering clemency to those he viewed as his mortal enemies. He will encourage them to resist the Turks. But if he expects the backing of his patrons in Tehran, he’s in for disappointment. Iran has a surfeit of enemies, and can ill afford to antagonize the Turks and Russians.

Circumstances can change, as we’ve learned in Syria over the past few years. Erdogan’s ambitions could come unstuck for any number of reasons, from Kurdish resistance to another about-face by US President Donald Trump. If the protests in Lebanon and Iraq die down, Iran’s proxies could again turn their attention to Syria, restoring some of Tehran’s lost leverage.

Rouhani can take some consolation from the hope that he will be a key figure in the next round of discussions. But for now, he’s a spectator, not a player.

 

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Stocks rebound on bargain hunting, Q3 earnings

LOCAL SHARES bounced back on Thursday because of a rally in the afternoon session, as bargain hunters lifted the main index before closing.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) added 17.22 points or 0.21% to close at 7,950.98 yesterday, while the broader all-shares index ended flat, recording an uptick of 1.96 points or 0.04% to 4,780.16.

“The sideways trading today ended on a positive note as bargain hunters, backed by optimistic third quarter earnings anticipation, swooped in to lift the local market,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a text message on Thursday.

He added that foreign funds helped drive traction in the local bourse as well, as overseas investors recorded a net buying of P494.99 million.

For AAA Southeast Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun, another contributor in yesterday’s trading were the mixed results in global markets.

“Global equities markets had mixed results again today with some gaining and some losing but basically flat as investors await corporate earnings reports… Here at the PSE, the main index ended slightly higher after being down in early trading on below average trading volumes again today,” he said in an e-mail on Thursday.

US stocks edged higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged off lackluster quarterly reports from industrial bellwethers Boeing Co. and Caterpillar, Inc., though a lower-than-expected revenue outlook from Texas Instruments, Inc. sent chipmakers’ shares lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 45.85 points or 0.17% to 26,833.95; the S&P 500 gained 8.53 points or 0.28% to 3,004.52; and the Nasdaq Composite added 15.50 points or 0.19% to 8,119.79.

Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks hit a six-week high on Thursday ahead of the central bank’s key rate decision, while Singapore shares rose on hopes of a revival in economic growth in the city-state.

Back home, four of six sectoral indices ended in the green. Mining and oil went up 53.18 points or 0.58% to 9,128.08; financials rose 10.30 points or 0.55% to 1,869.84; holding firms added 34 points or 0.43% to 7,784.76; and property climbed 11.35 points or 0.27% to 4,192.23.

Meanwhile, industrials dropped 98.33 points or 0.92% to 10,536.37 and services went down 0.02 point to 1,530.99.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 104 to 80, while 51 names closed unchanged.

Value turnover jumped to P5.19 billion from P4.67 billion on Wednesday, with 660.11 million issues changing hands.

“The market has been operating with value turnover below average for the past 10 trading days. This shows the cautious stance of investors with many shying away from the market while waiting for a catalyst primarily the 3rd quarter company reports,” Philstock Financial’s Mr. Tantiangco said.

Net foreign buying dropped to P494.99 million from Wednesday’s P1.14 billion. — Denise A. Valdez with Reuters

Peso weakens anew versus dollar

THE PESO weakened on Thursday due to risk-off sentiment arising from geopolitical tensions in Hong Kong and Europe.

The local unit ended at P51.24 against the greenback on Thursday, weaker by 27 centavos from the P50.97 versus the dollar finish on Wednesday.

The peso opened the session at a flat P51-to-a-dollar. Its weakest point for the day was seen at P50.92, while its intraday best was at P51.29.

Dollars traded on Thursday rose to $1.225 billion from $1.162 billion on Wednesday.

According to one trader, market investors opted for safe-haven currencies due to the continued geopolitical uncertainties abroad.

“The peso weakened from investor safe-haven demand amid lingering geopolitical uncertainties in Hong Kong and United Kingdom. Expectations of dovish cues ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting tonight has also boosted the greenback against the peso,” the trader said in an email on Thursday.

Another trader attributed the peso’s falldown to a “sharp squeeze” in the market.

“There was a sharp squeeze today as the market was short. So nagbreak above to cover (So [the market] broke above to cover). There is also a modest dollar strength so I feel that contributed as well,” the second trader said in a phone call on Thursday.

Hong Kong’s legislature on Wednesday formally withdrew planned legislation that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China, but the move was unlikely to end months of unrest as it met just one of five demands of pro-democracy demonstrators.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam had said many times the extradition bill was as good as dead and that other demands, including universal suffrage and an amnesty for all those charged with rioting, were beyond her control.

Meanwhile, a source on Thursday said the United Kingdom will ultimately leave the European Union on the terms of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal even though parliament has complicated the timing of the divorce.

“This ends with us leaving with the PM’s deal,” a senior Downing Street source told Reuters, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “We will leave with a deal, with the PM’s deal.”

When asked when Brexit would happen given a deadline of Oct. 31, the source said: “Parliament has taken back control.”

For today, the first trader sees the peso trading at a range of P51.10-51.40 while the second trader expects it to end around the P51.10-51.40 band. — Luz Wendy T. Noble with Reuters