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Lower tax collection seen in Jan.-Feb.

THE Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) said it expects lower tax collection for the first two months of the year, as the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the eruption of Taal Volcano last month disrupted company operations.

BIR Deputy Commissioner for Operations Arnel S.D. Guballa said some businesses had reported a decline in sales due to the volcanic eruption and the outbreak.

Mr. Guballa said some hotels had reported their occupancy rates plummeting to as low as 12% due to the virus scare, even after offering discounted rates.

He said the bureau’s regional offices are still assessing the potential impact on their collections, especially those from large taxpayers who account for more than half or P1.6 trillion of the BIR’s collection target of P2.576 trillion for the year.

“Actually nagsesend na ng feelers na don’t expect voluntary payments this coming month. So ’yan ang ginagawan na namin ng remedy on how to still cope (Actually, they are sending feelers not to expect voluntary payments to be good this month. So we are looking at remedies to cope),” Mr. Guballa told reporters on the sidelines of a BIR event on Friday.

The BIR official said they are now looking at alternatives to raise revenues, but they still hope the impact will not be that significant.

The BIR’s target collection this year will account for 78% of the P3.3-trillion goal for the country’s two biggest tax agencies, with the Customs bureau tasked to collect the remaining P731.235 billion.

Bureau of Customs (BoC) Commissioner Leonardo B. Guerrero has said some importers had reported delays in shipments this month, while some failed to ship goods from China to the Philippines due to lack of manpower.

Mr. Guerrero said when the news of the COVID-19 outbreak spread, there were workers in China that extended their vacation after the Chinese New Year, leaving businesses without enough workers to operate.

Even with the virus outbreak and Taal Volcano’s eruption last month expected to dent economic expansion, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III has said they are keeping this year’s growth target of 6.5-7.5% as they expect the impact to be minimal.

The BIR collected P2.172 trillion in taxes in 2019, missing its P2.33-trillion target even as its haul increased by 10.67% year on year.

Collections of the BIR and Customs make up the bulk of the country’s revenues, with other collections coming from the Bureau of the Treasury and nontax revenue from other offices, such as privatization proceeds and fees.

These revenues are meant to fund the government’s P4.1-trillion spending program this year, with other funding to come from local or foreign borrowings, as the country still operates on a budget deficit. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Dollars to shield economy from Brexit — BSP chief

DOLLAR REMITTANCES, outsourcing and tourism receipts would probably shield the Philippine economy from the short-term effects of Brexit, central bank Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said last week.

“Uncertainty that may arise from the post-Brexit transition may contribute to a short-term spike in market volatility and risk aversion, which could lead to a temporary flight to safe-haven assets,” he told reporters.

Mr. Diokno noted that after Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, major currencies depreciated against the dollar, a safe-haven currency.

“Following the departure and during the transition period, domestic financial markets may experience relatively similar magnitudes in volatility and asset price movements that we’ve seen in 2016,” he added.

Britain left the EU on Jan. 31 and proponents have said the exit was a dream “independence day” for a United Kingdom escaping what they cast as a doomed German-dominated project that is failing its 500 million population.

Brexit opponents say it is the worst thing to happen to Britain and Europe since World War II, adding that it will torpedo what is left of the UK’s global clout and undermine its economy.

Mr. Diokno said gross placements from the UK accounted for 0.7% of the country’s foreign direct investments from January to August last year, while foreign portfolio investments from the UK accounted for 29.7% of the total.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas chief also said British nationals accounted for only 2.7% of tourist arrivals as of November last year, making it the country’s eighth biggest tourist market.

Meanwhile, remittances from Filipino workers in the UK accounted for 5.1% of the total from January to November, he said.

Despite limited, short-term risks during the transition period, the Philippines has enough buffers to withstand uncertainties, Mr. Diokno said.

The country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals should “mitigate the uncertainty and possible disruptions that may arise from the post-Brexit transition,” he added.

Gross international reserves have reached $86.422 billion as of end-January, equivalent to 5.3 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and four times based on residual maturity, according to central bank data.

The reserves were down by 1.61% from a month earlier but 4.77% higher than a year earlier.

Cash remittances grew by 2% to $2.372 billion in November from a year earlier, the slowest in almost five months, according to central bank data. Analysts blamed global uncertainties for the slowing growth.

Cash remittances grew by 4.4% to $27.231 billion in the 11 months through November from a year earlier, data showed. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

Duterte rejects reclamation in Manila Bay

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte on Saturday said he would not allow the private sector to pursue new reclamation projects in Manila Bay, saying these will put the Philippine capital environmentally in peril.

“Not during my time. I will only allow maybe plans of whatever reclamation if it is in connection with a government project. I will not allow massive reclamation for the private sector. Not now. Because if you approve one, you approve all. Ganun ’yun eh (That’s the way it is),” he said in a speech at the inauguration of the P486-million Sangley Airport Development Project (SADP).

Mr. Duterte said only government-related reclamation projects and those approved by the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA) will be allowed to proceed.

“You know, when you govern… at least you try very hard to be equal and fair. But if I do that, of which I am wont to do, I will choke Manila. The entire Manila City would be environmentally at peril. So pag-aralan ninyong mabuti ’yan (You have to study that very carefully),” he said.

Mr. Duterte said the next administration should study proposed reclamation projects very carefully, “because that Manila there, that old city is an old city and it will decay if you add so many things in front of Manila Bay.”

This was not the first time Mr. Duterte expressed his opposition to reclamation projects in Manila Bay.

Last year, Mr. Duterte signed an executive order transferring the power to approve reclamation projects to the Office of the President. The PRA was previously under the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board had the power to approve reclamation projects.

“That is why ’yung Reclamation Authority kinuha ko. I got it back because I heard that everybody was lobbying (for approval of their projects)… Sabi ko, no (I told them, no),” Mr. Duterte said on Saturday.

Property developers are looking to capitalize on the booming real estate market by reclaiming land along Manila Bay. There are around 25 proposed projects to reclaim 10,000 hectares from Navotas City to Cavite.

Last December, PRA General Manager Joselito Gonzales said four projects have been given the green light — the Navotas City Coastal Bay Reclamation Project, Pasay 360-hectare Reclamation Project, Pasay 265-hectare Reclamation Project, Horizon Manila 418-hectare Reclamation Project.

SM Prime Holdings last December received the official notice from the Pasay City government to proceed with its 360-hectare reclamation project within the latter’s municipal waters. The said project will be connected to the Mall of Asia Complex, which is also a joint reclamation-land project by both parties.

On the other hand, the other 265-hectare reclamation project in Pasay City is being pursued by the LGU and the Pasay Harbour Center Consortium.

The Navotas Coastal Bay Reclamation Project is being undertaken by the Navotas LGU and Argonbay Construction Company, Inc.

The Horizon Manila project is being developed by the Manila LGU and Jbros Construction Corp. — GMC

Which emerging markets offer the best logistics opportunities?

Which emerging markets offer the best logistics opportunities?

Global economic policy direction hinges on China

THE BROAD POLICY direction for many of the world’s central banks and governments now hinges on one question: how will the Chinese government respond to the economic shock caused by the coronavirus?

The Communist Party’s elite Politburo has urged the nation to meet its economic targets this year, an imperative that could shake the government’s recent reluctance to fire up large-scale stimulus.

If it translates into an all-out loosening of monetary policy and a ramp up in government spending, key trading partners that have been slammed by the hit to exports, supply chains, commodities and tourism may see short-term pain followed by a rapid snap back.

The economic shock is expected to dominate discussions at this week’s meeting of finance ministers and central bankers at a Group of 20 summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Friday suggested there may be a need for “synchronized or, even better, coordinated measures to protect the world economy.”

Much depends on which levers China pulls. Near-term options include further cuts to central bank funding rates and more tax relief to hard-hit sectors as well as flush liquidity for the financial system. The emphasis for now remains on not over-doing it, though there are signs the resolve is softening.

The People’s Bank of China could further cut the proportion of deposits banks must hold as reserves. Local governments are being allowed to speed up bond sales to fund infrastructure like highways and health facilities.

Economists from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. to UBS Group AG and BNP Paribas SA see more easing steps ahead.

Real gross domestic product is now forecast to grow 5.8% this year, according to the median result in a Bloomberg survey, down from 5.9% last month. That would be the weakest in three decades.

The unknown is whether officials will really relax their rigid clampdown on borrowing in an economy where total debt is heading toward 300% of national output, making financial stability a political priority.

“The key for China’s trading partners is not so much the composition of China’s stimulus but, rather, that the stimulus is tailored to reflect the features of the shock.” said Nathan Sheets, a former Fed official who is now chief economist for PGIM Fixed Income.

China’s factories are vital links in the supply chains for multinational companies. Hubei province, an industrial powerhouse with an economy the size of Sweden’s, remains in lockdown while a mix of curbs on factory production and travel remain in place elsewhere too, complicating the task of getting the economy back up to speed.

CHINA EFFECT
HSBC Bank Plc economists led by Janet Henry estimate the hit to tourism revenue will be the biggest drag on Asia. They also highlight China’s role at the center of the global supply chain for electronics will delay a nascent recovery after a prolonged slump.

The Asia-focused lender has cut its 2020 global GDP forecast to 2.3% from 2.5% on the back of the China effect.

Analysis by Tom Orlik at Bloomberg Economics shows that Australia, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand are among the most exposed in the region while Brazil, Germany and South Africa are high up the list of global vulnerability.

President Xi Jinping has stressed the hit to growth will be short term and has used opportunities like a half hour phone call with Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to assure the fallout will be contained.

One worry: Because China is experiencing a supply side shock that’s upended production and distribution, a conventional stimulus such as lower interest rates or higher public spending may not be enough to turn things around, according to former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard.

“The effects on the rest of the world are likely to be mostly through the disruption of supply chains, and the effect on firms outside of China,” Mr. Blanchard said. “Much more so than the effect through lower exports to China, because of lower growth in China.”

Governments across Asia are already gearing up to respond.

Koichi Hamada, an adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said more fiscal stimulus will be needed if the fall out worsens.

Singapore is poised to roll out extra spending, Malaysia will announce stimulus next month, while Indonesia plans faster spending.

Globally, policy makers including the IMF’s Georgieva Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell say they are closely watching the virus fallout. Among emerging markets, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines have already cut their benchmarks and others may follow.

Which is why there’s so much focus on how China responds.

“I would guess the global policy response will be 3/4 on Beijing and 1/4 by the rest of the world,” said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute of International Finance. — Bloomberg

LRT-1 operator starts counting cost of virus

THE privately owned company operating the light rail transit’s line 1 has started assessing the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on revenues, its top official said, as rider count further slipped when schools cancelled classes and shoppers avoided malls.

“In January, we had the Taal [eruption] and then the [coronavirus]. We are affected. If there’s no class, then [we are affected]. Taal was almost one week,” Juan F. Alfonso, president and chief executive officer of Light Rail Manila Corp. (LRMC), told reporters last week.

LRMC is the operator of Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1), which passes by schools and universities along Taft Ave. Some of the line’s stations are near shopping malls, residential condominiums and public markets.

Mr. Alfonso said the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had scared commuters, adding to the effects of the Taal Volcano eruption on LRT-1’s ridership.

He noted that the volume of people going to shopping malls had gone down, which consequently affected the train’s ridership.

“Definitely, everybody is affected. We are still studying the full impact. We are not sure what the exact numbers will be,” Mr. Alfonso said. “I think there’s uncertainty because people are not sure of how it is going to affect them.”

For its part, the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the coronavirus might have a “minimal impact” on ongoing construction works.

DPWH Secretary Mark A. Villar said: “The [construction] of bridges are still ongoing. So far, wala pa akong nakikitang major effects, tuloy-tuloy naman yung trabaho nila (I don’t see major effects, their work continues).”

“Timelines are the same. If ever may [there are] effects, [they are] minimal. Wala pa akong nakikitang (I don’t see) major effects,” he added.

The Philippines has three confirmed cases of COVID-19, including one death, all involving Chinese nationals. More than 400 people have been checked for infection, more than half of whom had been confined, according to health authorities.

Based on preliminary estimates by the National Economic and Development Authority, the spread of COVID-19 could hurt the country’s economic growth by 0.3% if the outbreak stays longer or until June largely due to its impact on the tourism industry.

Tourist arrivals from China stood at 1.71 million from January to November last year, accounting for 22.9% of the overall tourism visitors to the country during the period, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority show.

The Trade department said the impact on the economy would be “minimal” since the country’s trading activities with China’s Hubei province, where the first case of the virus was detected and is currently on total lockdown, account for just about one percent of the Philippines’ total trade with China. — Arjay L. Balinbin

Tax appellate court upholds its ruling on Dole’s P167-M refund

THE Court of Tax Appeals (CTA) upheld its decision granting P166.7-million tax refund to Dole Food Co., Inc. (DFCI) over its erroneously paid capital gains tax.

In a 13-page decision, the court en banc denied for lack of merit the petition for review of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), affirming its third division’s decision and resolution in granting refund to DFCI.

The case stemmed the shared transfer agreement of DFCI and Dole Asia Holdings Pte. Ltd. (DAHL) where the company sold and transferred all its rights and interest in Dole Philippines, Inc. (DPI) for P1.9 billion.

The company owns 11.87% of the shares in Dole Philippines.

The CTA junked the bureau’s claim that the court’s third division erred in considering the financial statements of DPI in 2012 despite DFCI’s failure to submit those during its administrative claim in the bureau.

It said the court is not limited from receiving pieces of evidence that were not submitted in the administrative filing.

“Thus, petitioner is totally mistaken in his assertion that only those evidence which respondent submitted in its administrative claim for refund may be presented before this Court. A claimant may also present new or additional evidence that will solidify and further corroborate its claim for refund,” the court said.

The BIR also alleged that the property values in the financial statement of DPI was stated at cost and not based on fair market value which it said should be used at the time of the sale of the stocks.

The court, however, said that the bureau did not provide evidence to support its claim that DFCI opted to use a revaluation model wherein it was supposed to carry its property, plant and equipment in its financial statement at fair market value.

“Thus, this Court cannot disturb the factual findings of the Court in Division which initially tried the case,” the court said.

“There being no allegation nor iota of evidence from petitioner of abuse, arbitrariness, or capriciousness being committed by the Court in Division, this Court has no reason to reverse the latter’s findings,” it added.

The court noted that the case is about whether the tax refund has legal basis and the admission of the financial statement “was material to the determination of the total assets profile of DPI.”

The shares of stocks of the company is covered by Article 14(2) in relation to Article 1 of the Reservation Clause of the RP-US Tax Treaty.

Article 14(2) states that gains from the alienation of property shall be taxable only in the contracting state “of which the alienator is a resident” while Article 1 states that both the Philippines and US may tax gains from the disposition of an interest of a corporation if the assets “consists principally of a real property interest located in that country.”

It also said that based on records, real property assets constituted only 17.8% of DPI’s total assets. “Thus, the gains from the sale of DPI shares by respondent to DAHL were taxable only in the United States where the alienator, i.e., respondent, is a resident.”

“The capital gains tax therefore paid by respondent to petitioner on the sale of share transaction was erroneous. Hence, the argument of the petitioner that the value of the Property Plant and Equipment must be based on the fair market value at the time of sale and not on cost is irrelevant and immaterial to the case at hand,” the court said.

The court noted that the Tax Treaty was the basis of the refund grant and not the Certification No. 16-016 dated Dec. 8, 2016, which the BIR claimed must not be given weight or credit as the DFCI failed to present the custodian of the document.

The decision was penned by Associate Justice Catherine T. Manahan. — Vann Marlo Villegas

Negative investor sentiment pulls down ISM’s share price

INVESTORS sold off ISM Communications Corp. shares last week with analysts attributing the movement to overall negative market sentiment as well as news on Dito Telecommunity Corp.’s possible delay in its commercial operations.

A total of 525.40 million ISM shares worth P1.09 billion were traded from Feb. 10 to 14, data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed, making it the fifth-most actively traded stock last week.

ISM shares closed at P1.90 apiece on Friday, down 21.8% from P2.43 a week ago. Year to date, the stock’s share price slipped by 51%.

“ISM’s share price movements were influenced by the developments in Dito Telecommunity. The company is poised to be the telecommunications, media, and entertainment arm of the Udenna group, so it was negatively affected with the reports [last] week about the possible delay of Dito Telecommunity’s roll-out due to problems in permit application,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a text message.

Mr. Tantiangco noted the report “drew skepticism” on the part of investors, which led them to sell positions on ISM.

A news article published on Feb. 9 reported that Dito’s commercial operations will be delayed “over the complicated cell tower permitting process,” adding that there were concerns from some lawmakers and Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) Secretary Gregorio B. Honasan II regarding Dito’s capability to complete its rollout program by July this year.

To recall, Dito is scheduled to launch its services in the second quarter of 2020, with a government commitment to deliver a minimum broadband speed of 27 megabits per second (mbps) to 37.03% of the national population by July.

ISM has gained approval from its board of directors in December to buy 100% of Udenna Communications, which it will use as the parent firm for Dennis A. Uy’s telecommunications, media, and entertainment businesses.

Dito is owned and controlled by Mr. Uy’s Udenna Corp. and Chelsea Logistics and Infrastructure Holdings Corp., and China Telecommunications Corp.

In a separate disclosure on Wednesday, Chelsea said that “there is no truth” to the said delay, assuring the public that it will be able to meet its commitments to the government.

For Regina Capital Development Corp. Equity Analyst Anna Corenne M. Agravio, the decline in ISM was more due to the overall negative investor sentiment in the market.

“While the downturn may indicate some stock-specific negative investor sentiment, ISM’s movement last week is more of a reflection of the local market as a whole. ISM was but one of the many companies that bore the brunt of the bearish volumes and selling pressure we saw from the index the past days,” Ms. Agravio said in an e-mail.

“If anything, investors sold down ISM due to the increased uncertainties brought about by the global virus outbreak. Again, this is as much a reflection of the company as it is on the Philippine stock market,” she added.

ISM posted a net income of P50.42 million in the nine months to September 2019, up 235.8% from P15.01 million in the same period in 2018.

“ISM has an initial support range from P1.55 to P1.60. If this fails to hold, its next support will be at P1.30. Initial resistance lies at P2.00, while the next resistance is at P2.60,” said Philstock’s Mr. Tantiangco.

Meanwhile, Regina Capital’s Ms. Agravio placed the stock’s support and resistance levels at P1.7 and P2.37, respectively.

“ISM is already at its almost two-year low. Given that indicators are already deep into the oversold region, it is likely that the stock will soon settle at a new bottom before consolidating sideways. Note that at this rate, it is more plausible that ISM will trade closer to its support than the resistance for the rest of the month,” Ms. Agravio said. — Jobo E. Hernandez

Davao mixed-use project to start with housing, UP graduate school

CONSTRUCTION will start this year for the initial residential units and the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) graduate school at the Agriya mixed-use complex of Damosa Land, Inc. (DLI) in Panabo City, Davao Del Norte.

DLI First Vice President Ricardo F. Lagdameo said the company has so far sold about 40% of the initial 177 lots for the residential component, which is expected to generate 70% of the project’s total revenue.

Mr. Lagdameo, in an interview during the project’s formal launch on Feb. 13, said the initial phase of the project is estimated to cost about P4 billion, but the total investment has yet to be determined for what the firm sees as a long-term development for the 88-hectare complex.

“It is really a long-gestation project,” he said.

Agriya, conceptualized by architect Felino A. Palafox, Jr., is designed as an “agricultural metropolis” or agropolis, and the name is a play on “Agricultural City of Anflocor,” the Floirendo family’s holding firm that includes DLI and the flagship Tagum Agricultural Development Co., Inc.

Macy P. Bibat, project head, said the company will showcase the first model house by next month and start building before the end of the year.

“We are not really advocating that they (lot buyers) put up a big house on the lot,” said Ms. Bibat, noting that the project promoters want to encourage backyard farming in keeping with the agropolis concept.

The lots range between 202 to 450 square meters priced at P6 million to P15 million.

Mr. Lagdameo said that when the company turns over the properties, it will be giving out seedlings to the owners to get them started on their own small farm.

For the university campus, Ms. Bibat said UPLB is scheduled to start with the first building by the second quarter this year.

The 1,500-square meter building will house classrooms and an auditorium, among other office components.

DLI donated three hectares for the UPLB extension unit, which will be focusing on graduate studies in agriculture.

Ms. Bibat said the state-run school will later set up greenhouses and laboratories.

Mr. Lagdameo said the firm is planning to invite other educational institutions to set up a campus for primary and secondary education.

“We also want to have here a K to 12 (kindergarten to grade 12) school.”

Meanwhile, the company is also finalizing Agriya’s Naturetainment area, which will be open to visitors.

The agri-tourism area features a living crop and aquaculture farm where guests can learn how food is grown and have a better “appreciation of agriculture,” Ms. Bibat said.

It will have a “pick-and-pay” section where children can harvest vegetables to bring home.

Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat, speaking at the project launch, said Naturetainement will be part of the campaign on agri-tourism, which is being promoted as a key segment for the tourism industry.

“It is a noble thing what you are doing here at Agriya, highlighting the merits and importance of agriculture,” said Puyat. — Carmelito Q. Francisco

MPIC, Marinduque team up to protect marine biodiversity

METRO PACIFIC Investments Corp. (MPIC) has teamed up with the local government of Marinduque to boost awareness of the environment and protect the province’s marine biodiversity.

In a statement during the weekend, MPIC said its corporate social responsibility arm Metro Pacific Investments Foundation had signed an agreement with Marinduque for a program created for coastal communities.

“I am pleased that we have institutionalized collaboration among our member companies with different stakeholders from government, academe and civil society to rapidly respond to socio-economic issues of our country, as well as to proactively support activities towards community development,” said MPIC Chairman Manuel V. Pangilinan.

“We, as a business, strive to fulfill our share of the responsibility to mitigate the effects of climate change — a goal that we are slowly attaining through this cause,” he added.

The signing of a memorandum of understanding between MPIC and Marinduque through Lord Allan Jay Q. Velasco, who represents a legislative district of the province at the House of Representatives, will activate the adoption of MPIC’s flagship environmental program called Shore It Up!

The program aims to raise environmental awareness, provide livelihood assistance, protect and propagate mangroves, and conserve the country’s marine resources.

For its 12th year, the award-winning environmental sustainability movement, chose Marinduque as its community partner because of the province’s geographic location as a center of marine biodiversity.

The partnership includes the formation of the marine protection, inspection and conservation guardians and the implementation of underwater and coastal clean-ups.

Shore It Up! will also develop a program that protects more than 2,000 hectares of mangroves, raising awareness on conservation efforts within the province.

Mr. Velasco said: “The province of Marinduque is very much pleased that Shore It Up! and the MVP group decided to implement their MPIC Guardians Program here in our island, so that our bantay dagats can serve with authority as better stewards of our seas to heighten the protection and conservation efforts in our province.”

Marinduque is the eighth Shore It Up! site in the country. The island province, a popular destination among diving aficionados, attracts tourists for its “rustic, calm and blissful atmosphere,” MPIC said.

Under the memorandum of understanding, the program will earmark specific efforts and sustainable programs that will benefit not only the environment, but also the local community of Marinduque.

Of lukewarm coffee and new roads

ANOTHER alarm goes off at the crack of dawn. Another early morning drive in total darkness. I drag myself out of the house — still a little disoriented from the lack of sleep — and set my destination via a link that was sent over Viber to an unmapped location. I arrive at a very non-descript corrugated iron gate that is pulled open just wide enough for my car to squeeze in then is immediately shut behind me. I park, get handed a hard hat, a reflectorized vest, and a lukewarm cup of coffee. I wait.

I’ve been getting more and more of these calls recently and, as much as I am not a morning person, I have come to look forward to them; because when Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Mark Villar calls and asks to meet at a construction site at an ungodly hour, in my experience, it’s always good news.

Today is another one of those days. It’s Thursday, February 13, a day before Valentine’s. We are standing on a tiny blue digital dot in the middle of the Pasig River and Sec. Mark is talking excitedly about his big date. “By second quarter of next year, this will cut travel time from BGC to Ortigas down from one hour to just 11 minutes.” He says quite proudly. That digital blue dot we are standing on is, of course, the new BGC-Ortigas Link. It’s only a blue dot now because there’s no map for it yet — mainly because there’s no bridge here yet, but that is exactly why Sec. Mark invited me here. He is excited to show me.

“See how close it is now?” Sec. Mark points at the roughly 100-meter gap between the Ortigas side and the BGC side as we stand on the edge listening to him speak about his project like an ob-gyn describing an ultrasound to expecting parents. “We are using what they call ‘traveling form’ technology to connect it. Every three days, you will see this gap move about eight meters,” which is roughly the same speed of the cars along EDSA, I cut in. Sec. Mark laughs out loud, but this time with a lot more confidence and less weight than I have seen before.

I say that because three years ago, that joke probably would have been taken more personally. Simply because, with frustration at an all-time high and not a solution in sight, Sec. Mark knew that a lot of that responsibility and hate would land on his desk.

Sure, he could argue that he inherited those problems, but hate is still hate and traffic is still traffic — inherited or otherwise. Which is why the DPWH secretary and his team spent the last three years quietly developing 23 different decongestion plans for EDSA — the biggest of which will be the NLEX/SLEX/Skyway connector. There are also nine bridges being built across the Pasig River — all of which will provide a vital link between the north and south of Metro Manila — expected to be completed under his term.

These are all micro solutions that are designed to form a macro one by creating opportunities outside Metro Manila by providing a road network that can serve as the economic backbone of our nation’s capital. The full effect will only be felt once completed, of course, but Sec. Mark and his team are confident that we will be feeling it more and more over the next couple of years because we will have just crossed the “it will get worse before it will get better” hump. So while it will still take time — and the improvements incremental — every new road opening, bridge opening, or additional piece of infra will slowly untie this knot that we have come to know as Metro Manila.

I’m sure there are those who feel that it can’t come quick enough, and I feel you. We all do. But this is not something that can be done overnight; this is something that is usually done in the middle of it, while everyone is sleeping and only a quiet few are working around the clock so they can set up super early morning meetings with lukewarm coffee with people like me, so they can announce another new section of road that should bring us one step closer to the dream of a city that never sleeps but one that can finally start moving again.

And that will always be something worth getting up for.

Cocoa traders expect adverse weather to hit Ivorian sales

ABIDJAN/LONDON — Adverse weather and hoarding in Ivory Coast could see sales of the top cocoa producer’s largest export fall some way short of consensus, which could push global prices higher, traders said.

Cocoa futures on ICE are near their highest in three years as overly dry, hot winds have damaged the crop outlook in Ivory Coast, which grows around 40% of the world’s cocoa.

“Everyone knows the mid-crop this year is going to be a nightmare,” a Swiss-based trader told Reuters. “The weather has been dry (and) people are not selling what they promised to sell because they’re hoping for higher prices.”

Nine Ivory Coast exporters and buyers said they expect port arrivals for the April to September mid-crop to reach just 350,000-400,000 tonnes. This compares with official data of 527,000 tonnes last mid-crop and is well short of forecasts.

“Mid-crop arrivals should be between 450,000-500,000, that is what people are expecting,” Marex Spectron deputy head of agriculture Jonathan Parkman, who has been involved in cocoa for almost four decades, said.

Ivory Coast, along with its neighbour Ghana, has introduced a $400 a tonne living income differential or premium for its 2020/21 cocoa sales in a bid to guarantee higher prices for farmers and combat pervasive poverty. This has prompted local dealers waiting for next season’s price hike to hoard stock and even default.

“We’re not going to get any (supplies) in August and September, they’re all going to hold onto their cocoa because they want to sell it next season,” a France-based trader said.

Adverse weather is having an impact on the tail end of the October to March main crop, with Ivory Coast exporters and buyers now expecting port arrivals at 1.58 million tonnes from a previously forecast 1.69 million.

Last season’s main crop was 1.652 mln tonnes, official data shows.

“Our counting teams have noted since January that production will be down compared to last season following the lack of rain,” said an Ivory Coast-based director of a European export company.

If the main and mid-crop forecasts of Ivorian buyers and exporters prove true, total arrivals this season would come to 2 million tonnes maximum. Last season’s arrivals totalled 2.18 million, according to official figures.

A Reuters poll last month forecast 2019/20 Ivorian output of 2.2 million tonnes, but locals are sceptical.

“I’m looking for 5,000 tonnes of (cocoa) before March but I don’t think I’ll (get) it. There is not much left,” an Ivory Coast based exporter said. — Reuters

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