Not a few quarters saw fit to write the Nuggets off in the wake of their disconcerting loss to the Lakers the other day. It wasn’t simply that the outcome put them two down after two contests in the West Finals. More crucially, it was that they appeared quite overmatched for long stretches at a time in both encounters. And while they made enough adjustments after Game One to nearly snatch victory in Game Two, that they succumbed, anyway, speaks volumes of their status as vast underdogs. In a series where they don’t have the two best players, they need no small measure of good fortune to survive.
To be sure, the Nuggets aren’t predisposed to accepting conventional wisdom. In fact, bucking it is precisely why they continue to be in the National Basketball Association’s bubble environment at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex. If they’re well into their third month at Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida, it’s because they’ve learned to make their own luck with a heady concoction of skill and determination. Their remarkable sense of purpose was what enabled them to become the first in pro hoops annals to overcome two one-three deficits through a single playoff run.
For all the Nuggets’ confidence, though, they understand that their latest challenge is Sisyphean at best. Not only do they need to win four of their next five outings; they’ll be up against the vaunted Lakers, who: one, have LeBron James and Anthony Davis; two, boast of superior speed, strength, and athleticism; and, three, are equally driven to succeed. Which is why they’re bent on outworking their rivals at every turn from here on. They know that then, and only then, can they have a puncher’s chance of prevailing.
If there’s anything going for the Nuggets, it’s that they believe in themselves and in their capacity to blaze new trails. They, too, have an all-world cornerstone in Nikola Jokic, a fearless competitor in Jamal Murray, and a supporting cast completely subscribed to collective pursuits. They’re not likely to win — but, hey, their plight is nothing new to them. They’ve been there and done that, and if they’re still around to keep plodding on, it’s due to their resiliency. They won’t be handing anything to the Lakers without a fight, and they’ll be at their best just because they’re incapable of showing anything less.
Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.
Progressive, non-traditional education for children is becoming more attractive to parents amid COVID-19, said George Carey, founder and chief executive officer of The Family Room Strategic Consulting Group, a research and brand strategy consultancy firm.
According to firm’s Passion Points Study, a quarterly consumer survey across 14 markets, parents believe that life skills such as determination, confidence, and creativity are better predictors of their children’s success over excellence in academic fields like math and science.
The latter is often the focus of traditional schools, wherein students are lectured in classroom settings and assessed by their knowledge of academic subjects. Some members of the academe have criticized this “one-size-fits-all” approach, noting that students have different ways of learning.
On the other hand, progressive, non-traditional schools emphasize experiential learning and holistic development, with the approach varying on the institution’s philosophy.
In the Philippines, the Manila Waldorf School focuses on developing a child’s physical, emotional, spiritual, and intellectual faculties based on the teachings of Rudolf Steiner, an Austrian philosopher who advocated “working from the ‘hands’ (physical) through the ‘heart’ (emotional and spiritual) to the ‘mind’ (intellectual).” Meanwhile, the Raya School runs a discovery-based, play-oriented curriculum that inculcates a deep sense of the country’s heritage.
“Parents don’t want their kid to be forced into a square hole if they’re a round peg. They want the hole to be conformed to their child,” said Mr. Carey during a session in All That Matters 2020, an online convention.
Other findings from the study show that parents are looking for educational content that will preserve and restore their children’s sense of optimism and belief in the future. There is also a growing interest in preserving and celebrating family traditions. According to Mr. Carey, this category shot up by 125% in the past six months after a five-year decline among their interviewees.
“We have got a future which is very uncertain, very murky, and for many parents, very dark. As a consequence, these millennial parents have suddenly gone from having this love affair with the future to a love affair with the past,” he said.
While this seems to paint a negative forecast for the future, hope may be found in the children themselves who were found to have a strong sense of fairness and righteousness. The study’s six-year-old interviewees showed concern for the environment and literacy rates and a drive to accept other children coming from different backgrounds.
“This [the world’s injustices] has made the kids understand that the world’s unfair, but that they have a real role to play in righting that ship,” said Mr. Carey.
Meralco crews work round-the clock to provide safe, adequate, and reliable supply of electricity to United Imus Doctors Inc., one of Cavite’s COVID-19 treatment facilities located in the city of Imus. The project involves the upgrading of metering facilities, installation of two concrete poles, and replacement of two 75-kVA distribution transformers with three 250-kVA distribution transformers. Powering COVID-19 quarantine and treatment facilities within its franchise area is one of Meralco’s priority projects this year, as the company continues its relentless support to the government and to the private sector in the fight against COVID-19.
The most common outlook was one of caution. They are mindful that much of the rebound in markets and private-company valuations is thanks to ultra-low interest rates, massive central bank stimulus, and government fiscal support, some of which could start to be wound back in coming months. Photo by Mackenzie Marco on Unsplash
Hotels, pipelines, convenience stores, and automaker bonds are among the assets being bought by some of the world’s biggest asset managers as they look for value in a world thrown into turmoil by the coronavirus pandemic.
In interviews with sovereign wealth funds, pension firms, and asset managers across Asia and Europe that collectively manage about $3.4 trillion, one thing was clear: many of them are avoiding the overheated stock market.
The most common outlook was one of caution. They are mindful that much of the rebound in markets and private-company valuations is thanks to ultra-low interest rates, massive central bank stimulus, and government fiscal support, some of which could start to be wound back in coming months.
With asset values still seen as inflated, even in some hot areas like healthcare and technology, many are waiting for a potential second downturn after stimulus measures end but before mass vaccinations enable economies to restart without risking widespread infection.
Here’s what they had to say:
CONVENIENCE STORES, PIPELINES GIC Pte, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, is looking at “less loved” areas from retailing to infrastructure, whose valuations have been pummeled by the pandemic, Chief Executive Officer Lim Chow Kiat said when the firm released its annual review in late July.
The fund only officially discloses it manages more than $100 billion but has more like $450 billion, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, making it the sixth-biggest in the world.
In two of its largest deals this year, it was part of a group that acquired a 49% stake in ADNOC Gas Pipelines for $10.1 billion, and last month teamed with Australian property group Charter Hall in a A$682 million ($500 million) acquisition of more than 200 convenience stores attached to gas stations.
Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Jaensubhakij says even areas like hospitality could bounce back before global travel resumes. “Once you’ve contained the virus, domestic travel can come back even if international travel can’t,” he said. “Then there might be opportunities in the hotel space where domestic travel could continue to grow and take up a fair amount of demand.”
SUPPLY CHAIN SHIFT Global border closures can only be temporary, and trade is slowly recovering, says Didier Borowski, head of global views at Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager which oversees the equivalent of about $1.9 trillion.
However, he predicts pharmaceutical and health industries will relocate production of some key goods to avoid being dependent on one country. But even then, Mr. Borowski says it would be too expensive and not cost-efficient to bring it all home.
“This is the end of unbridled globalization, not the end of globalization,” he said in an interview earlier this month.
STAYCATIONS With travel restrictions limiting holiday plans, so-called staycations are back on the agenda, says Will James, deputy head of European equities at Standard Life Aberdeen Plc, whose team manages the equivalent of about $11 billion.
It’s invested in Thule Group AB, the Swedish maker of bike racks and roof-top luggage carriers for cars, whose shares have almost doubled since late-March.
“Rather than going abroad to the beach, people are staying home to drive around the country,” he said in an interview late last month.
Aviation stocks like Airbus SE could “recover very aggressively” if a vaccine is found, though he warns it’s still unclear if the world will ever go back to the way things were even if it works.
BONDS, AUTO BONDS Bonds are one of the great unloved assets of the Covid crisis, says Andrew McCaffery, global CIO at Fidelity International, which manages about $437 billion.
Carmaker bonds are particularly attractive as auto production picks up, and more people drive to avoid crowded public transport, he said in an interview earlier this month.
“If you look at credit spreads, they’ve moved to levels that make the bonds of some global carmakers relatively attractive,” he said, citing Ford Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. as examples. “These bonds are unloved, especially when you consider there’s been an increase in car usage versus public transport.”
GREEN REBOUND During the pandemic selloff and rebound AustralianSuper, the nation’s biggest pension fund with the equivalent of about $133 billion, kept more than half its portfolio in Australian and global stocks and reduced holdings of property, credit, and private equity.
Now it’s hunting for digital, transport, and social infrastructure investments as governments pump-prime economies, CIO Mark Delaney said last week. The firm is also looking for more renewable energy opportunities like last year’s $300 million deal with Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners as governments consider a green rebound.
“Clearly doing more around the environment will be a really great long-term outcome,” he said. “Given governments are prepared to spend more and be more proactive around the economy, they’ll probably be far more proactive around the environment as well.”
HOLDING FIRE With a mandate to maximize long-term returns, Australia’s sovereign wealth fund is keeping its powder dry, CEO Raphael Arndt said at its annual portfolio update earlier this month. The $118 billion fund is positioned cautiously with no pressure to deploy its liquidity “unless and until the opportunities arise,” he said.
“Economies right around the world are in their worst recessions for many, many decades, and if you look at the price of assets, they haven’t moved much,” he said. “The question investors have to ask is: does that make sense? The only way it makes sense is if interest rates stay very close to zero and stimulus stays for a very, very long time—and there’s got to be risks to that. That’s why we think we’re much better positioned in a cautious way right now.”
DATA CENTERS With public markets overvalued, Aware Super CIO Damian Graham is going into direct investments, such as data centers and apartment buildings. The $91 billion fund is also selling some of the assets it thinks will struggle, like office buildings and malls, as people change the way they work and shop, he said in an interview last month.
The Sydney-based fund last week invested 100 million euros ($118 million) with APG Group NV to build serviced apartments in Europe—a deal that could increase to 500 million euros. It’s also in a bidding war for listed fiber-optic operator OptiComm Ltd.
CHINA TECH While China was the first to be hit by the coronavirus, it is now leading the way out, making it an attractive proposition for Singapore’s state investor Temasek Holdings Pte.
The firm, which oversees the equivalent of about $225 billion, is positive about several key themes in China, including consumer technology, life sciences, biotechnology, and fintech, Chief Investment Strategist Rohit Sipahimalan said at the firm’s annual review earlier this month.
“This year, probably China will be the only large economy with positive GDP growth,” he said.
FAST FASHION L Catterton Asia Managing Partner Chinta Bhagat, whose parent company manages $20 billion, says investing amid the pandemic requires a detailed look at each country’s circumstances, down to how specific cities are faring. While deal-making continues to be slow in some places, it’s roared back elsewhere.
“COVID basically started in China and has ended in China,” he said. “Unless there’s some miraculous negative misfortune where it resurfaces, COVID in China is over for all economic—and our deal environment—considerations.”
The firm is considering doing deals at an earlier stage in areas like e-commerce and consumer technology—if it waits to do late-stage buyouts in those sectors it risks being outbid by big competitors like Temasek.
One area of interest is Chinese-style influencer-driven fashion. Where Western brands have traditionally used the star power of a single celebrity (think Kim Kardashian and Jessica Alba), many companies in China use armies of social-media influencers to sell products via e-commerce platforms to great effect.
“I’d be very surprised if we don’t end up doing some kind of social commerce deal just because we’re becoming better and better at figuring out the risk-reward there,” he said. — Bloomberg
Presently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say the novel coronavirus mainly spreads from person-to-person through respiratory droplets, which can land in the mouth or nose of people nearby.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday took down its guidance warning on possible airborne transmission of the novel coronavirus, saying that the draft recommendation was posted in error.
The now-withdrawn guidance, posted on the agency’s website on Friday, recommended that people use air purifiers to reduce airborne germs indoors to avoid the disease from spreading.
“CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted,” the agency said.
The CDC did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment on when the guidance will be updated.
The health agency had said that COVID-19 could spread through airborne particles that can remain suspended in the air and travel beyond six feet.
Presently, the agency’s guidance says the virus mainly spreads from person-to-person through respiratory droplets, which can land in the mouth or nose of people nearby.
Earlier this month, US President Donald J. Trump took exception to comments from the CDC director, who said masks might be even more effective than a vaccine for the novel coronavirus that could be broadly rolled out in mid–2021.
That followed a New York Times report that guidance about novel coronavirus testing posted last month on the CDC’s website was not written by the agency’s scientists and was posted over their objections.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has not changed its policy on aerosol transmission of the coronavirus, it said on Monday.
The agency still believes the disease is primarily spread through droplets, but that in enclosed crowded spaces with inadequate ventilation, aerosol transmission can occur, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies program. — Reuters
NEW YORK — Social media giant Twitter said on Monday it would investigate its image-cropping function that users complained favored white faces over black.
The image preview function of Twitter’s mobile app automatically crops pictures that are too big to fit on the screen and selects which parts of the image to display and cut off.
Prompted by a graduate student who found an image he was posting cropped out the face of a Black colleague, a San Francisco-based programmer found Twitter’s system would crop out images of President Barack Obama when posted alongside Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.
Twitter is one of the world’s most popular social networks, with nearly 200 million daily users.
Other users shared similar experiments online they said showed Twitter’s cropping system favoring white people.
Twitter said in a statement: “Our team did test for bias before shipping the model and did not find evidence of racial or gender bias in our testing.”
However it said it would look further into the issue.
“It’s clear from these examples that we’ve got more analysis to do. We’ll continue to share what we learn, what actions we take, and will open source our analysis so others can review and replicate,” Twitter said in its statement.
In a 2018 blog post, Twitter had said the cropping system was based on a “neural network” that used artificial intelligence to predict what part of a photo would be interesting to a user and crop out the rest.
A representative of Twitter also pointed to an experiment by a Carnegie Mellon University scientist who analyzed 92 images and found the algorithm favored Black faces 52 times.
But Meredith Whittaker, co-founder of the AI Now Institute that studies the social implications of artificial intelligence, said she was not satisfied with Twitter’s response.
“Systems like Twitter’s image preview are everywhere, implemented in the name of standardization and convenience,” she told Thomson Reuters Foundation.
“This is another in a long and weary litany of examples that show automated systems encoding racism, misogyny and histories of discrimination.” — Thomson Reuters Foundation
One of the unforeseen challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the continued distribution of goods and services in a safe and efficient manner. Utmost care and responsiveness are required to ensure that both workers and consumers are protected from the virus. This is doubly important in less urbanized areas where the large companies and the national government have difficulty reaching.
Davao-based BDO Network Bank, the largest rural bank in the Philippines, recognized the differing needs of clients of the rural banking sector, who are often lack the options and services available to those in Metro Manila.
“Our overall objective is ‘How can we maintain our capacity to serve our communities as much as we can?’ because we know that unlike banks in the highly urbanized areas where there are a lot of alternatives, in the communities where we operate, there are not enough providers,” BDO Network Bank President Jesus Antonio S. Itchon said.
To address this need, he noted that the lender has first invested heavily in its COVID-19 continuous screening program, including protective gear and vitamins, to ensure the health and wellness of their employees.
“We have also tried to figure out if there are ways under the current conditions where we can fulfill certain customer requests without them having to come to the bank… We cannot wait for the customers to go to the branch. We actually go to our customers,” Mr. Itchon said.
“At a time when most businesses are working from home, most of our employees are out serving the communities,” he added.
Then, to better serve its client base, BDO Network Bank classified its borrowers into two groups: the government employees who avail of salary loans, and the MSMEs for unsecured loans.
“In terms of proportion, we are still quite heavy on government employees’ salary loans. In terms of their impact on our portfolio, as long as the government employees will continue to be employed and draw a salary, that part of our portfolio is going to be okay,” he said.
“The MSMEs, which is a small but growing part of our portfolio because that is what we have started to grow for the last two years, is clearly being challenged by this pandemic… About half are still operating under the IATF guidelines and we do not expect big issues out of that part of the portfolio,” Mr. Itchon said that even with depressed sales, most are still doing quite well like sari-sari stores.
The lender then reconsidered previous plans for its expansion and instead directed its efforts towards rebuilding its operations to better suit the conditions of the ‘new normal’.
“For now, we think that our highest priority is to be there for our customers and the communities that we are serving, which means that our employees need to be protected; our processes and the way we make our services available needs to be safer. We will continue working on those things. We think we are in the right direction, but obviously, there are still a lot of things to do,” Mr. Itchon said.
He mentioned that the central bank’s initiatives during the COVID-19 pandemic had been a huge relief in making this shift of priorities possible. The relaxation of reporting and regulation deadlines, he said, are among the most beneficial of these such initiatives.
Since most banks were working on a skeletal workforce, and thus unable to comply with the necessary rules and regulations on time, the effect of relaxing deadlines was that of relief. In addition, the BSP no longer required the submission of hard copies, allowing banks to send soft copies and emails of all the necessary paperwork.
“One thing that this pandemic has taught us: When the traditional channels and the traditional ways of doing business are disrupted and you cannot afford to not serve your customers, it generates a lot of creativity and resourcefulness,” he said.
“We cannot just continue doing what we have always done. What got us to where we were at the start of this pandemic is not the way we are going to get to our next goal. We have to do it differently,” he added.
BANGKOK — A group of garment workers in Thailand who were illegally underpaid while making products for global brands including Starbucks and Walt Disney Co. are taking legal action to demand compensation after losing their jobs last year.
A Thomson Reuters Foundation investigation in September 2019 found dozens of migrants from neighboring Myanmar working at several factories in the western region of Mae Sot were paid less than the daily minimum wage of 310 Thai baht ($10.15).
Located 500 km (310 miles) from the capital Bangkok, Mae Sot is the main entry point into western Thailand and a trade hub home to about 430 factories and at least 44,500 workers— mainly migrants seeking to make money to send back to their families.
Following the expose, officials raided two garment factories and ordered the owners to pay wages owed to their workers.
Owners of one of the factories were ordered last year to pay 18 million baht in compensation to 600-odd workers. The company that owns the factory—Cortina Eiger—said it had repaid the workers, which was confirmed by labor officials in Mae Sot.
The owner of the other factory, Kanlayanee Ruengrit, has not yet paid 3.48 million baht to 26 workers who lost their jobs when she closed her business following the raid.
Interviews with workers by local and global rights groups found that her factory was making goods for several major brands from Universal Studios to Britain’s largest supermarket Tesco.
Disney, Starbucks, and Tesco said they were working with local representatives and civil society groups to support the workers from Ms. Kanlayanee’s factory and find a solution.
The 26 workers are yet to receive any money and are part of a civil lawsuit filed last month on their behalf by the Human Rights and Development Foundation (HRDF), asking a local labor court to enforce the compensation order against Ms. Kanlayanee.
“This case is just another example that shows every business that invests in Mae Sot takes advantage of cheap migrant labor,” said Suchart Trakoonhutip, labor rights coordinator at MAP Foundation, which has supported the workers along with HRDF.
Jarunchai Korsripitakkul, an inspector at the Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, declined to comment on the case but rejected criticism from campaigners that officials had turned a blind eye to labor violations in the region.
Last year, another labor ministry official, Somboon Trisilanun, said Mae Sot—which is in Tak province and part of a special economic zone (SEZ)—was a “black hole” because many garment factories in the region were difficult to inspect.
‘CHILLING MESSAGE’ Ms. Kanlayanee said she could only afford to offer the workers a total of about 800,000 baht—a quarter of the sum ordered—which they rejected this month.
“I am sad with what has happened,” said Ms. Kanlayanee. “I am confident I have never taken advantage of (the workers) in a moral sense, but in terms of the law I admit that I was wrong.”
“Most factories in Mae Sot are in the same situation … only the large factories can afford to (pay the minimum wage).”
HRDF and the MAP Foundation—which provides support to Burmese migrant workers – estimate fewer than a dozen factories paid minimum wage based on research and interviews in the area.
Separate to HRDF’s legal case—which has its first hearing next month—the Tak Province Office of Labour Protection and Welfare said it was in the process of filing a criminal lawsuit against Ms. Kanlayanee for failing to compensate the 26 workers.
If found guilty, Ms. Kanlayanee faces a fine of up to 20,000 baht and/or a year in prison.
The MAP Foundation said global brands also had a responsibility to reimburse the workers in their supply chains.
A Starbucks spokeswoman said the company terminated its relationship with the factory in December, and was looking for a way to “remediate the situation with the involved parties”.
Disney and Tesco said the factory was not authorized to make their products and they were seeking to help the workers.
NBCUniversal, which owns Universal Studios, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Several workers said Ms. Kanlayanee circulated their details after the raid with their names and photos put on blacklists outside some factories so they were repeatedly refused jobs.
Ms. Kanlayanee denied sharing the details of any workers.
“This is an egregious case with a chilling message to other garment workers in Mae Sot,” said Ilona Kelly, coordinator at the Clean Clothes Campaign (CCC), a global pressure group.
“If you say anything you will be punished,” said Ms. Kelly, whose group is supporting the workers’ push for compensation.
One of the workers, Aye Aye, said she was now lucky to get even a couple of days work a month on a farm earning less than 160 baht, and was struggling to pay off a 40,000 baht debt.
“I’m stressed out, because I’m constantly asked to pay back the money I owe, and I barely have enough to eat,” said Aye Aye, whose name has been changed to protect her identity. — Thomson Reuters Foundation
YIWU/SHANGHAI — At the Yiwu Fuye Christmas factory in eastern China, workers are stitching and testing out Santa Claus toys, checking they play a Christmas tune at the press of a button.
But the jingles are the only seasonal cheer in the factory in the city of Yiwu, which produces 80% of Christmas consumer goods exported globally, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
“There is no way to save this year,” Luo Jingjing, the company’s co-owner, told Reuters after losing almost half her clients because of the coronavirus pandemic.
“Let’s see if the virus will return when weather becomes cold and if it does, my next year’s business is also finished,” she added.
Yiwu is a city dedicated to Christmas all year round, filled with factories, showrooms, and stores that deliver decorations and toys to destinations all around the world.
The city last year exported around 1.92 billion yuan ($278.02 million) worth of Christmas products between January and October, up 23.9% from the previous year, according to government data.
Data for this year has not yet been released, but the anecdotal evidence is bleak after the global pandemic all but halted international business travel when many countries placed entry bans on foreigners.
Christmas shops in the city’s markets are piled high with samples of reindeer toys, faux Christmas trees, singing-and-dancing Santa Claus figurines and other baubles. The displays are designed to attract clients from as far afield as the United States and Brazil, who usually descend on Yiwu in the summer months to make bulk orders in preparation for the holiday season.
“It’s not comparable if we talk about the flow of customers inside the commodities market this year,” said Liu Jufang, surrounded by dozens of Christmas trees in her showroom in a gigantic mall. “There is no flow here at all. Foreigners cannot come (into China) at all. It’s an empty market. That’s it.”
Yiwu would normally have been in high production mode in recent months, preparing to send products abroad by October. Even without the usual ramp-up in production this year, many sellers will be left holding excess stock.
Finding alternate buyers has been difficult. There’s little interest from domestic e-commerce platforms given Christmas is not traditionally celebrated in China. Sales to cross-border sites such as Amazon or AliExpress were not feasible because of the large quantities needed to justify the shipping costs.
Wholesale prices for the decorations are modest, usually a few US dollars each for smaller pieces. Even Fuye’s life-size singing Santa Claus costs no more than 200 yuan ($30).
In another showroom, Yue Yuanyuan spends much of her time trying to arrange online video meetings with previous customers, employing a translator to help show them her samples to try entice a sale.
“We have to work much harder for much fewer orders this year,” she told Reuters. — Reuters
Migrant workers from Asia’s developing countries have managed to send home record amounts of money in recent months, defying pandemic expectations and propping up home economies at a critical time.
Remittance doomsayers see something else in the bigger-than-usual transfers: a coming crash, triggered by a bleak job market, particularly in the Middle East. As they see opportunity drying up along with demand for oil, workers are sending money home in advance of their own return.
The Philippine government, for example, expects almost 300,000 overseas Filipinos to come home this year, with potentially severe consequences: Remittances make up about 10% of the economy and have pushed the peso to a three-year high against the dollar.
“People are returning home,” said Thomas Isaac, the finance minister for the southern Indian state of Kerala, which accounts for the country’s largest share of remittances. “Therefore, they bring back all their savings.” India is the world’s top recipient of transfers and a leading supplier of labor to the gulf; it took in $83 billion last year, exceeding the $51 billion it took in as foreign direct investment.
Overall, remittances to the Asia-Pacific region will drop 12% in the second half of 2020 compared with the same period last year, Fitch Ratings said this month. “That will drive a decline in remittances as the temporary supporting factors fade,” said Jeremy Zook, a director at Fitch Ratings based in Hong Kong.
Unlike Latin American countries, which continue to benefit from a tentative US recovery, Asian countries are vulnerable to economic austerity in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East. More than 60% of remittances to India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan come from Gulf Cooperation Council countries, said Khurram Schehzad, chief executive officer at Karachi-based advisory Alpha Beta Core Solutions Pvt. The region is also the top destination for workers from the Philippines, one of the world’s largest suppliers of overseas labor.
UNEMPLOYMENT TRAP
Saudi Arabia has already raised taxes and import fees to make up for falling oil revenue. Job cuts in the kingdom appear to target foreigners first, with Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment estimating more than a million foreign workers will leave the labor market this year.
After eight years of sending money to family in Karachi, Abdul Hanan Abro is one of the workers who will follow his money home. He was laid off from his accounting job in Dubai in May and hasn’t found a new gig—and he’s not the only one. “No one is getting anything,” said Mr. Abro. “Two to three of my friends have already moved back to Lahore. People are selling their cars and stuff, doing their final settlements.”
For Mr. Abro, coming home means starting over. He wants to use the savings he accumulated overseas to start a business. “It’s high time to just focus on what I was planning for two to three years now,” Mr. Abro said. “It’s better than wasting more time in finding a job in this market.”
In April, the World Bank predicted overseas workers would send home 20% less this year, the biggest drop since at least 1980. The lender hasn’t updated its forecast to reflect the recent resilience, but a decline is still coming, said Dilip Ratha, lead economist on migration and remittances at the World Bank based in Washington D.C. “High unemployment rates among foreign-born workers in major host countries and associated financial difficulties are expected to dampen the flow of remittances,” he said. — Bloomberg
LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS (LGUs) will likely face substantial fiscal stress over the short to medium term, as tax collections continue to decline due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said.
In its Financial Risks Statement report for 2021, the DBCC said the collection target of local treasurers has been slashed to P171.85 billion this year, 44% less than its pre-crisis goal of P307.08 billion “due to the financial hardship and economic impact brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
“The COVID-19 pandemic has caused sudden economic shock…. The fiscal stress to LGUs is expected to be very substantial as they are at the frontline of the pandemic’s response and mitigation efforts,” it said. Fiscal stress is the gap between projected revenues and expenditures.
If another wave of coronavirus infections occurs, the interagency body warned the impact on revenues and an increase in spending would mean another P115 billion in quarterly funding requirements for LGUs and another round of budget realignments.
The DBCC said the impact on local tax revenues will likely be more pronounced in 2021 since local tax assessments will be based on this year’s weak collections and the reduced capacity of taxpayers who are affected by the economic slowdown.
The DBCC has set a P144.89-billion collection target for LGUs in 2021, 16% less than this year’s already-revised goal.
“Anticipating improvements in the economy, local revenue collection would still grow conservatively with a projected increase of 10% annually and reach P159.38 billion to P192.85 billion from FY 2022 to FY 2024. These projections would be adjusted once the Q2 FY 2020 data becomes available,” it said.
The DBCC also flagged the “conservative” borrowing performance of LGUs that could have been used to fund their projects. The total outstanding balance of LGU borrowings are at P108.07 billion or 0.58% of the nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
By 2022, LGU budgets are expected to grow because of a Supreme Court ruling increasing their share of National Government revenue. However, this is also seen to be affected by the lingering impact of the pandemic, the DBCC said.
The DBCC is considering shifting the implementation of programs, activities and projects worth P404.5 billion, currently handled by the National Government (NG), to LGUs in response to the ruling on the Mandanas-Garcia petition.
It estimated P234.4 billion (equivalent to 0.92% of GDP) will be needed once the ruling takes effect in 2022.
“The Executive is currently considering three measures to mitigate the impact of the SC ruling: (i) submit a legislative proposal to Congress lowering the LGU share from 40% to 30% of national taxes; (ii) declare an ‘unmanageable fiscal deficit’ to bring down the LGU share from 40% to 30%; and (iii) gradually devolve services to LGUs,” the DBCC said.
Thepandemic will also affect the 2023 tax allocation transfers of internal revenue allotment (IRA) to LGUs as these will be based on the weak tax collections this year.
“The anticipated increase in the LGUs’ adjusted IRA in consideration of the SC ruling on the Mandanas case in FY 2022 will therefore be short-lived and may continue in FY 2024 if collections for FY 2021 of NG will not significantly recover,” it added.
Economic managers also suggested revisiting the current formula in computing IRA.
“In light of the SC ruling on IRA, it is imperative that a review of the IRA formula be considered to address the fiscal imbalance on intergovernmental transfers, the effect on the limited fiscal space of the NG, the growing surplus of LGUs, and inadequacy of its design to address development constraints in rural and low-income LGUs,” it said.
The National Economic and Development Authority, the Budget department and the Department of Interior Local Government are now drafting an executive order for the preparation of devolution transition plans.
“Engagements with development partners to discuss the organizational implications of devolving functions and services, clarify functional assignments at different LGU levels, and analyze the economic impact of the SC ruling are also ongoing,” the DBCC added.
To mitigate the impact on the fiscal standing of LGUs, the economic team said they can redirect funds, use savings, adopt austerity measures, and tap other sources of financing.
“Adequate fiscal resiliency measures should be adopted to allow gradual recovery of local business, through grant of short-term relief and incentives, phased implementation of increased tax rates or fees and charges, and adopt local stimulus programs for productive sectors of agriculture, transportation, tourism, and other services that will revitalize local economy,” it added.
The pandemic also had a huge impact on GOCCs’ financial position, economic managers said.
“The Governance Commission continues with the streamlining of the GOCC Sector by recommending 6 GOCCs for abolition and/or privatization and merger of 3 GOCCs to the Office of the President by the end of 2017. From 157 in 2011, only 119 GOCCs remain to be going concerns for the Governance Commission in 2020,” it said.
GOCCs remitted P150 billion to the government in the seven months to July through dividends, feed and return of unused subsidies to help boost its war chest against the pandemic. — Beatrice M. Laforga
THE central bank may maintain the low interest rate environment in the next two years to provide support to the economy amid uncertainty caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
“Given that there’s a lot of uncertainty still in the air, we are committed to a long-term low inflation regime…. To me, that is what we intend to do. What we have done will be on the table for the next, maybe, another two years,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said in an interview with ANC News Channel when asked about the country’s interest rate environment by 2023 after the Federal Reserve’s recent signal that US interest rates should be kept at near-zero for at least three years.
Mr. Diokno said central banks have been working on a “disengagement strategy’’ to give signals that “should not be early nor too late.”
“[B]ecause otherwise it may create more hazard issues where corporations which should not have been supported will continue to rely on the support of the government…,” he said.
The overnight reverse repurchase, lending, and deposit facility are at record lows of 2.25%, 2.75%, and 1.75% after the central bank slashed rates by a total of 175 basis points this year.
Mr. Diokno’s latest statement provides the market with a time-based forward guidance on the BSP’s accommodative policy, said ING Bank N.V. Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa.
“The two-year timeline also highlights the outlook for economic growth with BSP likely expecting the economy to be in need of stimulus all throughout the next two years. We may not be in for a quick recovery.” Mr. Mapa said in an e-mail.
The economy has plunged into recession, with a record 16.5% contraction in the second quarter due to the lockdown.
As the pandemic stretches on, the government expects the GDP to contract this year by 4.5-6.6% before bouncing back with a 6.5% to 7.5% growth next year.
“It is prudent to assume some slow growth in the meantime until a vaccine has been developed, and until the central bank has been successful in restoring confidence — which means we cannot be caught off-guard if situation worsens and I think the BSP has so far been successful in that front,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said in a text message.
Mr. Diokno said they have taken a deliberate pause in order to gauge how the market took in the liquidity support from the BSP which is estimated to have reached about P1.4 trillion or equivalent to 7.3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The BSP’s Monetary Board will have its next policy-setting meeting on Oct. 1 following the Aug. 20 review where they kept policy rates unchanged.
Also on Monday, Mr. Diokno said the central bank is ready to deploy unconventional tools to support the economy and the government amid the crisis.
“This [unconventional tools] is a one-off or whenever there is a need for it…. But as I keep saying we still have a lot of tools in our arsenal,” Mr. Diokno said.
Mr. Diokno’s statement comes after the enactment of the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act (Bayanihan II) which increases the allowed repurchase agreement of the BSP with the National Government to about P810 billion from the initial ceiling of P540 billion.
“Armed with the access to a war chest with the BSP and soothed by a pickup in revenue collection, we hope the National Government will use these funds to finally bankroll a COVID-19 response that addresses other glaring weaknesses in the economy given that BSP appears to have covered the banking sector pretty well after the flurry of its policy moves,” Mr. Mapa said. — Luz Wendy T. Noble
