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Knight endgames are hard

Last Thursday we studied the Knight-and-Pawn Endgame in Alekseenko vs. Giri. Nowadays we have the benefit of the endgame tablebases to assist us in the analysis of these endgames. As BW readers know an endgame tablebase is a computerized database that contains precalculated exhaustive analysis of chess endgame positions. They are generated by working backwards from a checkmated position. Thus, the tablebase acts as an oracle, always providing the optimal moves.

Before the development of the tablebases, chessplayers had to work out the do’s and don’ts of endgame play with their own brains. Do you know that the theory of that specific knight and pawn endgame in Alekseenko vs. Giri was first brought to light by GM Eugene Torre in the crucial game Torre vs. Portisch from the 1982 Toluca Interzonal?

Torre went to Toluca with every hope of qualifying for the Candidates’ Matches, but started very badly, scoring four draws and a loss (from a winning position against Igor Ivanov, formerly Soviet who was already representing Canada then) for 2.0/5 and a place near the bottom of the tournament table.

After the loss Eugene reckoned that he had no more chances to qualify and, with nothing to lose, started playing in a carefree manner. Feeling no pressure at all he threw caution to the winds and shocked the chess world with a five-game winning streak against several of the top GMs in the world, starting with Lev Polugaevsky (USSR), the Cuban Amador Rodriguez, then Yugoslavia’s champion Krunoslav Hulak, the American champion and sensation Yasser Seirawan, and finally the tough Lebanese-turned-French champion Bachar Kouatly.

Suddenly three rounds before the end he was leading the field with 7.5/10 followed by Lajos Portisch (7.0/10) and three pre-tournament favorites with 6.5/10: Yasser Seirawan (USA), Artur Jussupow (USSR), and former world champion Boris Spassky (USSR).

In the 11th round he met Hungarian living legend Lajos Portisch. With the tournament leaders all tightly bunched it was obvious that there was no question of an early draw — they were both in for the fight of their lives.

Torre, Eugenio (2535) — Portisch, Lajos (2625) [E15]
Toluca Interzonal (11), 1982

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 b6 4.g3 Ba6 5.b3 Bb4+ 6.Bd2 Be7 7.Bg2 Bb7 8.Nc3 0–0 9.0–0 Na6

Portisch was among the leading theoreticians of his day. He introduced this move for the first time in this game, and it has since become the main line. Previously everybody automatically played 9…d5.

10.Ne5 d5 11.cxd5 exd5 12.Bg5 c5 13.Rc1 Ne4 14.Bxe7 Qxe7 15.e3 Rfc8 16.Ne2 Nb4!

Tempting white to move his pawn to a3, where it becomes a target for the black queen.

17.a3 Na6 18.Nf3 cxd4 19.Rxc8+ Rxc8 20.Nfxd4 Qxa3 21.Nf4 g6 22.Qa1! Qxa1 23.Rxa1

Intending to win back his pawn with Bf1.

23…Rc5! 24.Bf1 Ra5 25.Rxa5 bxa5 26.Bxa6 Bxa6 27.Nc6?

A little bit too flashy — he should have simply taken the d5–pawn. Now Portisch uncorks a small maneuver to get rid of his d5 weakness.

27…Nd2! 28.Nxa5 d4 29.exd4 Nf3+ 30.Kg2 Nxd4 31.f3 Kg7 32.Kf2 Kf6 33.Ke3 Ke5 34.Nd3+ Bxd3 35.f4+ Kd5 36.Kxd3 h5 37.b4 Nf3 38.h3 h4 39.gxh4 Nxh4 40.Ke3 f6

The time came for Eugene to seal a move. Elated with the fact that the draw is already well within reach he makes a mistake.

41.b5?

The move 41.Ke2 holds everything. 41…Nf5 (Black cannot advance with his king because then 41…Ke4 42.Kf2 Kxf4 43.Nc6 wins Black’s a-pawn) 42.Kd3 Nd4 43.Nc4! Ne6 44.Ne3+ Kd6 45.f5!= No kidding, these knight endgames are very difficult to play.

41…Nf5+ 42.Kd3 Nd4 43.b6 axb6 44.Nc4 b5 45.Ne3+ Kc5 46.f5! gxf5 47.h4 f4 48.Ng4 f5 49.Nh2 Nc6 50.h5

Now Eugene goes after the b-pawn in order to leave Black with doubled pawns on the same file.

50…Ne5+ 51.Ke2 b4 52.h6 b3 53.h7 Ng6?

The question mark comes from Portisch, who claims that 53…Nf7! wins. What is the difference between putting the knight on f7 and g6? In fact on g6 it performs the additional function of defending his f4–pawn. It turns out that on f7 a valuable check becomes available on g5. It appears that he is right, Black wins if Eugene defends the same way as he did in the actual game. However, there is still a way to a draw: 53…Nf7 54.Kd3 Kb4 55.Nf3 Ka3 56.Nd2 b2 57.Nc4+ Kb3 58.Nxb2 Kxb2 59.Ke2! we have a draw as Black’s king cannot get back in time to save his pawns.

54.Nf3 b2 55.Nd2 Kd4 56.Kf3 Kc3 57.Nb1+ Kd3 58.Kf2 Ke4

Now Black realizes the dilemma. If he tries to queen his b-pawn then 58…Kc2 59.Na3+ Kc1 60.Kf3 b1Q 61.Nxb1 Kxb1 62.h8Q Nxh8 63.Kxf4 draws, so he has to reconcile himself with the reality that the b-pawn must be given away for its counterpart white pawn on h7.

59.Nd2+ Kd5 60.Ke2

Game was adjourned for the second time here with White sealing the text move. Eugene was very distraught at the prospect of his qualifying chances melting away and came away from the board with a sinking feeling of hopelessness. GM Miguel Quinteros of Argentina, who was a close personal friend of Eugene, was present in Toluca as a correspondent for several big newspapers in his country, and did not hesitate to offer his services in the adjournment analysis.

They were both aware of the importance of the game and so really burned the midnight oil on this one. However, after several hours’ study they were forced to conclude that the endgame was lost. There was nothing left to be done but to catch a few hours sleep before the morning adjournment so that at least Eugene could meet the Hungarian legend with a clear head.

The game would not leave Eugene’s mind, though, and after sinking into an exhausted sleep the adjourned position broke into his dream with the knights and pawns dancing around the board. They were moving at a rapid pace all over the board and then, suddenly, a sequence of moves kept repeating itself in his dream and, subconsciously realizing its significance, he was shocked into wakefulness.

“Miguelito! Miguelito! It’s a draw! It’s a draw!” This call in the wee hours of the morning brought Quinteros running, and once again the feverish analysis started. Finally, with daybreak peaking from the waning darkness of the night they both sat back, smiling and happy. They had really found it.

60…Ke6 61.Kd3 Kf6 62.Kc2 Kg7 63.Nf3 Kxh7 64.Kxb2 Kh6 65.Kc2 Kh5 66.Kd2 Kg4 67.Nd4!

[67.Ke2? Kg3 68.Nd4 Kg2 69.Nf3 Ne7 70.Nd4 Nd5! 71.Nf3 (71.Nxf5? f3+) 71…Nc3+ and wins]

67…Ne5 68.Ke2 Nf7 <D>

Position after 68…Nf7

The position on the board more or less forcibly arises after the adjournment. They had concluded that it was lost because of 69.Kf2 Ng5 70.Kg2 (70.Ke2 Ne4 71.Kf1 f3 72.Ne6 Kg3 73.Ke1 f2+ 74.Ke2 f4) 70…f3+ Kf1 Kf4 and now the winning method is obvious — Black will bring his knight to g4 and king to e3 and force through the pawn. Here is how it will go 72.Kf2 Ne4+ 73.Kf1 Nf6 74.Kf2 Ng4+ 75.Kf1 Ke4 76.Nb5 Ke3 the sequence …Nh2+ followed by …f2 and queens cannot be prevented.

But this was the sequence Eugene saw — there WAS a way after all to prevent Black’s king from going to f4 and crossing over to the other side.

69.Kf1!!

The dream sequence. Eugene’s knight is already on d4 and that is good — his King has to be on f2 when Black plays Ng5 otherwise he won’t be able to maintain his blockade on f3. If immediately 69.Kf2 Ng5 70.Kg2 (70.Ke2 Ne4 71.Kf1 f3 72.Ne6 Kg3 73.Ke1 f2+ 74.Ke2 Nd2) 70…f3+ 71.Kf1 (71.Kf2 Kf4 once the Black king gets to f4 it is curtains for White) 71…Kf4 72.Kf2 Ne4+ 73.Kf1 Nf6 74.Kf2 Ng4+ 75.Kf1 Ke4 76.Nb5 Ke3 Portisch wins.

69…Ng5

[69…f3 70.Kf2 Kf4 71.Nxf5!=]

70.Kf2

This is the same position as in 69.Kf2 Ng5, only now it is Black to play, and it is a draw.

70…Ne4+

If 70…f3 then 71.Ke3 preventing Black’s king from going to f4. Black is now in a bit of a zugzwang. If he moves his king then Nxf5. If he moves his knight then Nxf3. Take note that white’s king is two diagonal squares away from the black knight, meaning that it will take black a minimum of three moves before it can check the white king. Just a small tidbit to remember if you want to avoid any surprise checks.

71.Kg2

The blockade on f3 holds. Portisch has to find a way to break it.

71…Nd2 72.Kf2 Ne4+ 73.Kg2 Nd2 74.Kf2 f3 75.Ke3!

The second part of the dream. Eugene’s king has to go to have access to e3 when the Black pawn advances to prevent …Kf4.

75…Nc4+ 76.Kf2 Nd2 77.Ke3 Nc4+ 78.Kf2

Portisch makes one last winning try.

78…Ne5 79.Ke3 f4+ 80.Kf2 Nd3+ 81.Kf1 Ne5 82.Kf2 Nd3+ 83.Kf1 Nc5 84.Kf2 Ne4+ 85.Kf1 Ng5 86.Kf2 Nh3+ 87.Kf1 Ng5 88.Kf2 Ne4+ 89.Kf1 Kg3 90.Nf5+ Kh3 91.Nd4 f2 92.Nf5! f3

[92…Ng3+ 93.Kxf2 Nxf5 94.Kf3 is a draw]

93.Nd4 Kg4 94.Nxf3! Kg3

[94…Kxf3 stalemate!]

95.Ke2 Nc3+ 96.Kf1 Nd5 97.Nd2 Nf6 98.Nf3 Ng4 99.Ke2 Ne5 100.Ne1! ½–½

Taking the knight is an immediate draw, the black king cannot move without losing the pawn, and if his knight moves then Nd3 would win the pawn.

With this very important draw GM Eugene tied with Lajos Portisch for 1st place in the 1982 Toluca Interzonal and qualified for the Candidates’ matches.

 

Bobby Ang is a founding member of the National Chess Federation of the Philippines and its first Executive Director. A Certified Public Accountant, he taught accounting in the University of Santo Tomas for 25 years and is currently Chief Audit Executive of the Equicom Group of Companies.

bobby@cpamd.net

How to stay productive while working remotely

By Aliyya Sawadjaan
Features Writer, The Philippine STAR

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has changed the lives of millions all over the world, with people now physically distancing themselves and practicing self-quarantine to prevent infection.

Most companies have to stop physical operations and employers have adopted a work-from-home policy to help curb the coronavirus.

Some excel from working remotely, compared to working in the office. But others, not so much, as working from home can mean too many distractions (Netflix, napping, snacking, etc.), or productivity dwindles mid-working.

Here are some tips to keep the momentum going while working from home:

FIND AN OFFICE SPACE

Find a dedicated and comfortable location in the house to work on — that is not the bedroom. This area’s sole purpose should be for working, a place that you can come in for work and leave later when you’re off the clock. If there is a spare room in your home, the better, so that you can close the door and shut out any and all noise and distractions. Create a cozy but productive space that is suited to your individual working style. While you’re at it, add elements that promote either a calming environment or an inspirational one.

DECLUTTER

If you find that you lose concentration because of a cluttered desk or room, declutter. Claim the space as a clutter-free zone. This will help you stay focused on your workload and more aligned with your in-office experience.

GET READY FOR THE DAY AS USUAL

Working from home does not necessarily mean sitting around in your pambahay clothes. Instead, get ready for the day as if you were still going to the office. Practice your morning routine: getting dressed, making your coffee, eating breakfast, etc.

PLAN OUT YOUR DAY

Determine which time of the day do you prefer working: in the morning or in the afternoon? Then keep a structured daily schedule. Determine what time you start and what time you stop or clock out. Some studies recommend that time spent alone is better if it is structured. Include multiple breaks. The schedule also gives a message to your coworkers that these are the hours you are available. Don’t forget to put your highest priority task first.

TAKE BREAKS TO GET AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER AND/OR DESKS

Spend time with family or pets. Make yourself a fresh cup of coffee or green juice. Have lunch at the kitchen table with family instead of bringing a plate to your desk. Just because you are working from home does not mean you need to work 100% of the time just to be productive. Don’t be afraid to take a nap if it’ll make you more productive and energetic after.

TALK TO SOMEONE

Some people can work through isolation and solitude, but others may need some social interactions to get through the day. Some studies say that it is essential for the mental well-being of a person working remotely. Find or choose a colleague that you can chat with when you feel the need to chat with someone. Alternatively, find a friend who is going through the same experience as you.

WORK ON YOUR WORK COMMUNICATION

Build up camaraderie among your colleagues by using digital communication apps that go beyond texting. Use video conferencing services like Zoom or chat apps like Slack. Better work communication while working remotely can help maintain your relationship with your colleagues and managers.

Managers should also remember that each employee works differently, and that even though they are working from home, these are challenging times and that the COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer of stress to themselves and their employees. It is key that they communicate with them and help the employees who are struggling with the quarantine.

FIND INSPIRATION

Play on blast your playlist to get you going, or put on a more soothing soundtrack while working or try listening to an audiobook or podcast. If you prefer looking at nature and listening to the birds, face your desk towards the windows (or doors) towards where there is greenery.

DO MORE TASKS

Commit to doing more tasks as this might make you more productive and burn a fire within you to see those list of tasks filed under “complete.”

TAKE CALLS AND MESSAGES AT A CERTAIN TIME

If you are the type that easily gets distracted from taking calls and answering messages, allot a time slot on your schedule just for this particular purpose. You will save time and energy to focus on other tasks and projects.

Maintaining proper nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic

By Hannah Mallorca
Features Writer, The Philippine STAR

According to the Department of Health (DoH), maintaining proper nutrition is crucial to protect the body from COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019). The department released guidelines on how to care for the nutrition and boost the immunity of Filipino families, especially during the quarantine period.

Proper nutrition amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Observe the three principles of nutrition in preparing food for your family.

Balance, Variety and Moderation

Maintain a balanced diet.

–      Eat Go, Grow and Glow food.

–      Drink eight glasses of water.

Observe health measures when shopping for groceries.

Prioritize buying vegetables, fruits, meat, fish and eggs.

Plan your family meals.

–      Make a food inventory.

–      Observe First In, First Out when deciding what meals to serve your family.

Double-check the food you buy and observe proper preparation methods.

–      Ensure that your drinking water is clean.

–      Wash and clean food properly before cooking and preparation.

–      Wash your hands for 20 seconds before cooking.

–      Wash dishes and cooking utensils.

Observe proper exercise

Do it three times a week.

Eating the right food

For National Nutrition Council – Nutrition Information and Education division chief Jovie Raval, good nutrition is crucial during the pandemic as it helps build immunity against diseases.

“Nutrition should be part of a healthy lifestyle. If you have a balanced diet, there is no need to take vitamin and mineral supplements unless prescribed by your health professional,” she said.

According to Ms. Raval, nutritious food include vegetables, fruits, lean meat, eggs, chicken, tofu or tokwa, legumes, brown rice, corn and root crops. She also recommends avoiding alcohol since it reduces immunity.

For Nutritionist Dietitians Association of the Philippines national president Zenaida Velasco, staying hydrated is important to maintain proper nutrition. However, drinking water every 15 minutes is a myth since it doesn’t guarantee full protection against the virus.

“Drinking water flushes toxins from your body. They do not neutralize the toxins, but our kidneys use water to get rid of certain waste products. An accumulation of toxins weakens the immune system,” clarified Ms. Velasco.

Boosting immunity through medicine

According to Ms. Velasco, relying on supplements to treat or prevent COVID-19 may do more harm than good. Maintaining nutrition by eating food rich with vitamins A, C, D, E and zinc is still recommended.

“There is not enough research to support the use of high dose of vitamin C (1000 milligrams or more) with lung inflammation. Taking too much vitamin C supplements can cause side effects like diarrhea, heartburn, abdominal cramps, headache, even insomnia,” added Ms. Velasco.

For Ms. Raval, there is limited evidence supporting the claim that taking high doses of vitamin C can boost the immune system.

“Any excess vitamin C intake is excreted in the urine. Thus, there is really no need to take vitamin C supplements if the diet is adequate,” said Ms. Raval.

WHAT IF YOU’RE MORE AT RISK?

If you’re more prone in catching the virus, Ms. Raval recommended these tips in taking care of your health during the pandemic.

Follow the recommendations of DoH such as frequent proper handwashing, social distancing, staying at home, and eating healthy food.
Older people should be supported by their families to make sure they eat healthy and drink enough water.
Babies should be breastfed exclusively in the first six months and be given appropriate complementary feeding while continuing to breastfeed.

 

At present, there is no antiviral medication to treat COVID-19. However, the pandemic is a call for the world to take care of their health and for various sectors to ensure the safety of mankind.

Five simple tips on transforming home spaces into productive workspaces

It’s been a little over a month since the national government began announcing community lockdowns around the country. In that time, millions of Filipino workers have begun to experience for the first time the benefits and challenges of work-from-home arrangements.

And with talk of extending the current ECQ, or mandating intermittent lockdowns over the next few months, that struggle will only continue.

Beyond connectivity and logistics concerns, one major issue many of us who have become used to reporting to office spaces designed for productivity is: What can I do to make my personal space more conducive for work?

Here are five simple tips you can use to build the best possible workspace at home:

1. Dedicate a space. Keep it clean and uncluttered, distractions are the enemy.

This might sound simple, but it’s an important distinction to make. Your home is meant to be comfortable and is designed to help you relax. But now that you need a place to get things done—mixing business with pleasure will not work.

Whether it be a desk in your bedroom or spot in the living room, make sure you designate your work area, and stick to it. The clearer a distinction you can draw between what is a workspace, and what is a relaxation space, the quicker and more effectively your brain can switch into work mode when you need it to.

2. Light it up.

Research shows that natural light significantly increases productivity. So, as much as possible, find a spot by your window. Daylight will minimize eye strain from exposure to computer screens and the view always helps keep your mind stimulated.

If that’s not an option, a good task lamp with a white or daylight color bulb is best. Avoid warm lights, they promote relaxation and will get you ready for bed (even more than the back-to-back Zoom calls you have on deck).

3. Organize – Your space and yourself.

Make sure there is a place for everything you need—books, reference materials, chargers, a pen and paper, and the like. You do not want to be procrastinating by getting up now and then to go on a scavenger hunt. A drawer or desk organizer should do the trick as long as it’s within your reach. In a pinch, a nice wooden crate or a shoebox can also be used.

Put up a calendar, a scrum board, or a ‘to-do’ list to keep track of your progress. Set your working time for each day and be firm about it. Humans thrive on routine, and now that we don’t have excruciating daily commutes to help us delineate our schedules, it’s time to practice some self-discipline.

4. Remember—”Less is More.”

This saying, attributed to modernist architect Mies van der Rohe, perfectly describes the minimalist philosophy.

Your work space is a reflection of your mind, and a clear mind is a productive one. Stick to the essentials and save the rest for your down time. Avoid putting distracting gadgets or toys near your work area. Put a natural touch instead—we suggest a plant or a fishbowl.

5. Make it yours – functional and personal.

Now that you’ve experimented with all these previous tips, the real goal is to find what works best for you.

The beauty of building a personal workspace at home is you have total control over how to set it up. So be flexible. Add a personal touch to keep yourself inspired and motivated, your favourite artwork or a family photo would be perfect.

Try out different configurations or even different spots around your home until you find what feels right. Your most productive days are ahead of you—so get designing.

—

HADO is an architecture and design studio based in San Juan, Metro Manila. They focus on a people-centered design process, believing that good design should be accessible for all. You can find them here at their website. (www.hado-architects.com)

The A-Z’s of M&E: How monitoring and evaluation are valuable to your project planning

Timelines, logistics, mechanics, and budgets—these are some of the concepts that come to mind when one mentions project planning and implementation. But there is another one—monitoring and evaluation (M&E)—that is very important and unfortunately, often overlooked.

Some may misconstrue M&E as being synonymous with project auditing, but they’re actually two different processes with differing points of focus. “[M&E] doesn’t say if what you’re doing is wrong… or what sanctions you should be given because you’re doing something wrong,” said Lemuel Segui, former monitoring and evaluation officer at the Philippine Development Foundation, during QBO’s TBI 4.0 Virtual 4.0 Conference held last April 1.

“M&E is actually allied with planning and implementing because [it tells] you, “These are the lessons that we saw on-ground, and these are the challenges that we need to address for you to make more informed decisions and improve your performance.”

On planning and implementing

M&E may be jointly defined as a “continuous management function” that assesses if progress is being made, spots bottlenecks in implementation, and highlights whether there are any unintended effects from a project or program. While the two processes that comprise its name more or less have the same objective, the key difference is that monitoring is done internally while the latter is conducted by a separate body.

To help ensure effective results management, there are a number of factors that an organization must finalize. For one, an organization must set how often they will conduct M&E, which depends on the project cycle and success indicators that are being measured.

An organization must also know what system they will use. There are a number to choose from, such as results-based management (RBM), which emphasizes improved performance and tangible, demonstrable results.

However, it doesn’t stop with crafting and implementing the plan. There are three principles that must be observed while doing so:

  • Ownership, or understanding the purpose of the project and going beyond simple compliance of the requirements;
  • Encouragement of stakeholders to participate actively in the entire process; and
  • A focus on results, or emphasis on achieving results instead of rigidly following activities as planned.

“M&E is actually an art and a science. There is a system, a scientific process… But the art part is how you implement the system,” said Segui.

Weaving stories from systems

If implemented well, M&E can bring several kinds of benefits. On a technical level, it can help an organization make informed decisions, improve their performance, and meet their goals. Internally, it gives them more confidence in making decisions. But perhaps one of its most fascinating benefits is that it brings out beautiful stories that can increase engagement among your stakeholders.

“People would always say that [M&E is] very scientific, and is sometimes even perceived as a boring aspect of implementation. But what we don’t [see] is the heart of a story that you’re making,” said Segui.

“For example, if your indicator [of success as an incubation program] is the number of startups that you’ve incubated, it doesn’t tell you the kind of effect your intervention had on your beneficiaries. It doesn’t tell you the change that happened to them or how you changed the lives of your beneficiaries through your initiatives. So this is something that’s unique with M&E: you see the effects through its proper implementation.”

BIR, Customs miss Q1 collection goal

THE government’s main collection agencies failed to meet their revenue targets for the first quarter, as March collections took a hit due to the Luzon-wide lockdown that shuttered government and business operations.

Citing preliminary data, the Finance department reported the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Bureau of Customs (BoC) generated a combined P600.86 billion from January to March. This was 20.63% or P156.26 billion short of the P757.12-billion revenue target for the first quarter, and P10.17 billion lower than the collections in the first quarter of 2019.

Collections in March were significantly affected by the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Luzon which began on March 16 and has been extended until April 30.

For the month of March, the BIR and BoC collected P163.15 billion, representing 65.65% of the month’s P248.5-billion goal, and 17.45% lower than the P197.64 billion collected in March 2019.

BIR collections in March slumped 20.06% year on year to P118.35 billion, which represented only 62.13% of the P190.48-billion target for the month. Collections from large taxpayers fell 17.42% to P80.19 billion.

Customs revenues also declined 9.66% to P44.8 billion in March, which also fell 22.78% short of the P58.02-billion target.

“I think it’s safe to say the global situation due to the COVID-19 affected port operations globally, leading to the shortfall we experienced in March,” BoC Assistant Commissioner and Spokesperson Vincent Philip C. Maronilla said in a mobile phone message earlier.

For the first quarter, BIR collections stood at P455.45 billion — 22.86% short of its P590.43-billion target and slipping 2.86% from a year ago’s P468.86 billion.

BIR collected P284.39 billion from large taxpayers in the January to March period, 26.36% lower than the P386.19-billion goal and a 6.14% drop from a year-ago’s collections.

The BoC reported P145.41 billion in collections during the first quarter, 2.28% up from the P142.17 billion it collected last year, but still 12.76% short of its P166.69-billion target.

As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic widens, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said he expects tax collections to be “definitely… a bit lower than our original target.”

The two agencies were tasked to collect P3.307 trillion this year to partially fund the government’s P4.1-trillion spending plan, with BIR’s target at P2.576 trillion and BoC’s at P731 billion.

Mr. Dominguez said the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) estimated that the government’s revenues could decline by as much as P318 billion if the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by one percent or by P286.4 billion if the economy posts zero growth.

Meanwhile, National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon has assured that the government has enough cash to fund its cash aid programs and response against the coronavirus outbreak.

In an interview on Friday, Ms. De Leon said the government could still meet its funding requirements given the central bank’s P300-billion payment for the government bonds as well as the previous successful auctions which raised P84.925 billion.

She said there will be additional liquidity once the $5.7 billion worth of loans from multilateral lenders are approved. She said they will also continue to tap the local market via the regular auctions, while keeping an eye on the international market for opportunities. — Beatrice M. Laforga

PHL not top choice for Japan firms moving from China

By Jenina P. Ibañez
Reporter

THE Philippines is unlikely to be the top choice of Japanese manufacturing companies that are planning to shift production out of China, the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Philippines, Inc. (JCCIPI) said.

“They really want to move out from China to other countries, but unfortunately, they consider first Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand because of supply chain, resources, and raw material production,” JCCIPI Vice-President and Executive Director Nobuo Fujii said in an e-mail on Wednesday.

Japan is looking to reduce its reliance on China as a manufacturing base, amid supply chain disruptions caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The Japanese government earlier this month announced it has set aside $2.2 billion of its economic stimulus package to help its manufacturers move production out of China and into Japan or Southeast Asia.

Mr. Fujii said manpower resources is the best way to attract Japanese companies to the Philippines.

“But lack of supply chain and raw material production is a bottleneck. And furthermore, perception of country image. We have been trying to change this (for a) long time, but we cannot say success,” he said.

The JCCIPI currently has around 600 member companies.

Takashi Ishihara, executive director of the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in Manila, said in an e-mail on Wednesday that their 2019 report found that 17 Japanese manufacturers in East Asian countries considered relocating their manufacturing base to the Philippines in response to US-China trade talks.

But 42.3% of companies in the report selected Vietnam as a transfer destination, followed by 20.6% that picked Thailand and 18.6% chose the Philippines.

“Meanwhile, under the impact of COVID-19, many Japanese manufacturers are facing problems on their supply chain as their key factories are located in the specific countries,” he said.

Mr. Ishihara said Japanese companies are willing to do business in the Philippines as long as the country retains its advantages, including a talented and English-speaking work force, competitive employee compensation and ease of hiring, smooth communication with local staff, a growing local market, and tax incentives.

University of Asia and the Pacific Economist Cid Terosa said in an e-mail on Thursday that Japanese investors are also looking for complementary infrastructure such as transportation networks and telecommunications services, competitively priced utilities, and a liberal investment climate for foreign businesses.

He said the companies are looking for a predictable business environment, such as reduced policy inconsistencies and revisions.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Research Fellow Francis Mark Quimba said the Philippines is doing well in terms of quality of workers.

“We are trying to improve the quality of infrastructure and reducing the cost of electricity. Also, incumbent Japanese companies have perceived the Philippines as friendly in terms of supporting the Japanese workers who transfer here,” he said in an e-mail on Thursday.

After joining investment promotion activities of the trade department in Japan, Mr. Quimba found that the companies are also considering the number of engineers and the socioeconomic status of Japanese people in the country as factors for investment.

“Incumbent Japanese companies are important resources for other companies (maybe their suppliers or customers) who are looking to transfer their business to the Philippines so we should work with the incumbent Japanese companies to prepare an investment promotion strategy,” he said.

Mr. Quimba said Japanese companies will also be taking a close look at the Philippine’s immediate and long-term response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

The government placed Luzon under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) on March 16, which halted almost all economic activity. Companies have been forced to stop operations, although in recent weeks some manufacturing firms have been allowed to resume operations but under certain conditions such as social distancing. The ECQ is scheduled to be lifted on April 30.

Japanese firms may also consider the impact of the lockdown on businesses, such as regulations and conditions that would allow companies to continue manufacturing operations.

“The incumbent Japanese companies may also view the Philippine response as indicators of good governance: level of transparency of the Philippine government; degree of responsiveness and how participative or consultative it is,” he said.

Mr. Quimba said the companies will also look at the Philippines’ post-COVID-19 response in terms of business environment, incentives, and available support.

“We need to communicate these plans as early as now so the companies moving out of China can already formulate their plans and include the Philippines as an option. We need to send the right signals as early as now,” he said.

BSP: Current policy can accommodate ECQ extension

THE central bank’s current policy stance can accommodate the impact of a possible extension or expansion of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said.

“The BSP’s recent moves are designed to be prospective, given our strong economic fundamentals,” Mr. Diokno said in a text message on Sunday. “We think the BSP is ahead of the curve.”

Presidential Spokesperson Harry L. Roque said in a radio interview on Saturday the ECQ could be extended or modified after April 30. A modified lockdown, according to him, will depend on geographical location, comorbidity or industries.

Earlier, Mr. Roque said a total lockdown could be enforced as the virus has yet to be contained and as cases continue to rise.

Resigned Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia earlier said extending the lockdown to May would be “difficult” and had suggested a gradual lifting that will allow the partial resumption of public transportation and mall operations.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has already sickened 6,259 as of Sunday, according to the Department of Health. The death toll has reached 409, while recoveries have risen to 572.

Mr. Diokno said in an interview with ABS-CBN News Channel that its latest move to include lending to micro-, small- and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs) as part of banks’ compliance with reserve requirements could be equivalent to a cut of more than two percentage points in the reserve ratio.

The move was announced along with the latest 50-basis-point (bp) off-cycle rate cut from the central bank last week, barely a month since it reduced policy rates by the same magnitude in March.

This brought the overnight reverse repurchase, lending and deposit rates to record lows of 2.75%, 3.25% and 2.25%, respectively.

The BSP has already slashed rates by a total of 125 bps for this year, following the 75 bps in cuts in 2019. This means the BSP has completely reversed the 175 bps in hikes done in 2018.

Meanwhile, the central bank also reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for big banks by 200 bps in early April to 12%. Although it kept RRR for smaller thrift and rural lenders at four percent and three percent, the BSP shaved 400 bps off the minimum liquidity ratio (MLR) of stand-alone thrift, rural and cooperative banks to 16% until end-2020 to provide a liquidity boost for smaller lenders.

LOCKDOWN EXTENSION TO HIT FIRMS
According to Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort, another ECQ extension will take a toll on businesses.

“For the hardest hit business sectors, every two weeks of lockdown extension is equivalent to about four percent of production or income lost on an annualized basis,” Mr. Ricafort said in a text message.

But this is not to say an extension should not be taken into consideration as this is meant to contain the outbreak that could have greater impact on the global economy if left unchecked, he said.

“This is also a dilemma faced by many countries around the world — in whether or not to extend lockdowns,” Mr. Ricafort said.

UnionBank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion is also of the view that a modified quarantine could be the “ideal” way to ensure economic recovery.

“A shift to some form of a modified community quarantine is most ideal to help jumpstart the economy, but a probable extension may prove essential as a form of premature uncoiling of current interventions may result in a resurgence of cases,” Mr. Asuncion said in a text message.

He cited data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development which estimates that countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) could lose 2% for every month in lockdown.

“A total lockdown from March 15 to May 15 is equivalent to four percent GDP decline, much of the average GDP output of the Philippines in recent years. We are not even talking about unemployment here,” he said.

“A careful balance must be adopted to help restrain the virus and jumpstarting the economy.”

The Philippine economy grew 5.9% in 2019. Prior to the outbreak, the government targeted GDP growth of 6.5% to 7.5% this year.

As the pandemic continues, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III has said the country may see flat or zero growth or as much as a one percent contraction in GDP. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

BusinessWorld launches online forum series

TO give a better perspective on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy and to help prepare for recovery, BusinessWorld, the Philippines’ premier business daily, will be holding an online forum series starting April 29.

BUSINESSWORLD INSIGHTS will engage high-caliber speakers and experts in an intelligent online discussion on today’s most relevant issues, moderated by BusinessWorld editors.

The online forum, scheduled every Wednesday at 11 a.m., will be shown live on the Facebook pages of BusinessWorld and The Philippine STAR. It will also be uploaded to BusinessWorld’s website (www.bworldonline.com).

The first phase of BUSINESSWORLD INSIGHTS will focus on the theme “Laying Out the Macro Scenario for Businesses Amid COVID-19,” with three sessions tackling the pandemic’s impact on the economy; the so-called “new normal” for businesses; and opportunities for stock market investors.

Scheduled on April 29, “Assessing the Coronavirus Pandemic’s Impact on the Philippine Economy” will be the first session. The confirmed speakers are Souleymane Coulibaly, World Bank lead economist and program leader; Calixto Chikiamco, Foundation for Economic Freedom president; and Amb. Benedicto V. Yujuico, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry president. Another invited speaker is Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran. It will be moderated by Wilfredo G. Reyes, BusinessWorld editor-in-chief.

The second session, “Understanding the ‘New Normal’ for Businesses after the COVID Crisis,” will be held on May 6 and discuss how companies can do business in a post-COVID-19 society by understanding its social, health, and economic impact. Confirmed speakers are Dr. Raul Destura, Philippine Genome Center deputy executive director; and Anthony Oundjian, Boston Consulting Group managing director and senior partner. Another invited speaker is Dr. Nicole Curato of University of Canberra. It will be moderated by Santiago Jose J. Arnaiz, BusinessWorld’s SparkUp editor.

The third session, “COVID-19 and The Philippine Stock Market: Uncertainties and Opportunities,” is scheduled on May 13 and will cover the impact of the coronavirus on financial markets and how investors can take advantage of market opportunities. Among the confirmed speakers are April Lee-Tan, COL Financial Group head of research; and Jun Calaycay, PhilStocks Financial, Inc. vice-president and head of research and traditional sales. Another invited speaker is Ramon S. Monzon, Philippine Stock Exchange president and CEO. It will be moderated by Leo Jaymar G. Uy, BusinessWorld head of research.

BUSINESSWORLD INSIGHTS: An Online Forum Series is made possible by eLearning Platform partner Olern; partner organizations Management Association of the Philippines and Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry; and media partner, The Philippine STAR.

For more information, contact Shai Cordero at 09979954734 or smcordero@bworldonline.com.

PHL among countries with the most stringent response to Coronavirus pandemic

PHL among countries with the most stringent response to Coronavirus pandemic

Risk assets revival seen ‘volatile, uneven’

By Denise A. Valdez
Reporter

A GRADUAL lifting of the regional lockdown and its would-be effect on the resumption of businesses is key to the recovery of risk assets, a United States-based investment company said.

In an e-mail interview last week, Franklin Templeton Managing Director Subash Pillai said the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in the volatility of markets amid the drop in risk asset prices.

Risk assets are equities, commodities, high-yield bonds, real estate, currencies, or any other asset or financial product whose prices are at risk of fluctuating due to external factors.

With the global economy falling into its worst recession since the Great Depression — according to the International Monetary Fund — the recovery of risk assets is highly dependent on how governments will react to the pandemic.

“[I]t is very hard to make shorter term prediction on a recovery. We do favor risk assets recovering over a 6-18 month timeframe but expect the recovery to be volatile and uneven,” said Mr. Pillai, who is also the regional head of client investment solutions for Asia Pacific for Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions.

“Key to this recovery will be positive developments around our ability to combat the virus (i.e. a clearer pathway to a vaccine and /or improved treatment) as well as the staged reduction of social distancing measures by the government,” he added.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed nations across the world to implement varying degrees of lockdowns to help contain the spread of the virus.

In the Philippines, an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) until the end of April has been in place over the Luzon island, which accounts for about 70% of the country’s gross domestic product. Some provinces have also implemented their own regional lockdowns as well.

The ECQ has resulted in the suspension of several “non-essential” work, which state-run think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies said might result in losses to the economy of between P276.3 billion and P2.5 trillion.

Franklin Templeton’s Mr. Pillai said governments are expected to roll out expansionary fiscal and monetary settings to support a strong recovery for the economy.

He noted, however, that as an emerging economy, it will be more challenging for the Philippines to do this on the same scale other developed markets are able to.

“EMs (emerging markets) including the Philippines are employing expansionary fiscal policy, but most will lack the ability to stimulate to the extent that we are seeing from the US, UK, Australia and other DM (developed market) nations,” he said.

“It can be harder to finance aggressive fiscal stimulus for the economy, while currency depreciation can threaten the ability to support debt raised in foreign currencies,” he added.

Before he resigned, former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia pushed for a gradual lifting of the ECQ after April 30 to help the economy start its recovery. Business groups have also called for the same measure from the government.

Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go, a close ally and former personal assistant of President Rodrigo R. Duterte, said in a radio interview Sunday that the chief executive might decide this week whether to lift or extend the ECQ beyond April 30.

Nascent data protection moves leave firms at risk, says Straits Interactive

By Arjay L. Balinbin
Reporter

VARIOUS companies in the Philippines are still in the infancy stage of implementing their data protection and data privacy obligations, placing them at a high risk for data breaches, Singapore-based technology company Straits Interactive Pte. Ltd. said.

“As of now, based on our assessment, a lot of the organizations in the Philippines are still in the infancy stage of implementing a data privacy and information management program,” Straits Interactive Country Manager for the Philippines Edwin A. Concepcion told BusinessWorld in a recent phone interview.

A privacy management program by companies ensures their compliance with Republic Act No. 10173, also known as the Data Privacy Act (DPA) of 2012, according to the National Privacy Commission (NPC).

Mr. Concepcion said compliance with the DPA, which promotes and upholds individuals’ data privacy rights, reflects a company’s commitment to building trust with its client and employees.

In 2019 alone, the NPC received more than 2,000 complaints of alleged harassment and shaming by some mobile online lending operators, he said.

He added that such incidents happen because users wittingly or unwittingly allow privacy-intrusive applications to collect excessive information from them.

The Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned the public against investing in at least 14 groups that are allegedly taking advantage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis by luring individuals into illegal investment activities.

One of them is a text scam that uses the name of President Rodrigo R. Duterte. It works by sending text messages to people that they have won P750,000 in an electronic raffle, then asks for their personal information to claim the prize.

Mr. Concepcion said what business organizations should do is train their employees on data protection.

“Companies need to have a sense of ownership, responsibility and accountability. They typically only invest in technical security, but data security should be done at three levels such as employee awareness, physical security, and administrative, which means that there must be an individual in charge or group in the organization who will enforce data protection,” he explained.

Internet security firm Kaspersky said that companies in Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, are starting to prioritize investing in their cybersecurity capabilities, with many planning to raise their IT security budgets over the next three years.

Kaspersky’s 2019 survey with nearly 300 IT business leaders in the region showed that 34% of the companies are worried about data loss and being exposed to a targeted attack.

The IT security firm said 31% of such companies are concerned about electronic leakage of data from internal systems.

Mr. Concepcion said having trained and aware employees is the best defence.

WORK FROM HOME ISSUES
“The most common issue that arises from the work-from-home setup and using all these technologies available now is the excessive collection of personal information,” Mr. Concepcion said.

He also noted that such data are being used for multiple purposes without the subject’s consent.

“Also, a lot of companies store and retain information, creating a very high risk for personal data breaches and leading to unauthorized access and disclosure,” he continued.

Early this month, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) urged the public to take measures to be safe when using video and teleconferencing applications amid security issues that have emerged.

The DICT also advised users to install firewall software from trusted firewall security companies and free browser extensions that block tracking activities of applications such as Chrome’s AdBlock Plus and Firefox Ad Hacker.

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