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James, LA Lakers lead NBA merchandise sales

NATIONAL Basketball Association (NBA) superstar LeBron James and his Los Angeles (LA) Lakers paced league merchandise sales through the first half of the 2020-21 season.

In figures released by the NBA and National Basketball Players Association, and shared to the media, 17-time All-Star and four-time champion James and the Lakers held the top positions on the NBA’s Most Popular Jersey and Team Merchandise lists. 

Results were based on NBAStore.com sales for the first half of the ongoing season of The Association, which ran until the All-Star break.

However, no figures were given.

The Brooklyn Nets finished second in team merchandise sales, their highest ranking to date in the category.

Based on the list released, Mr. James had the most popular jersey, followed by Dallas’ Luka Dončić, Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant, Golden State’s Stephen Curry and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Coming in sixth was Kyrie Irving of Brooklyn, then Anthony Davis (Lakers), Jayson Tatum (Boston), James Harden (Brooklyn), and Zion Williamson (New Orleans).

Rounding out the top 15 were Jimmy Butler (Miami), Damian Lillard (Portland), Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers), Trae Young (Atlanta), and Russell Westbrook (Washington).

New Orleans’ Williamson made his top 10 debut, while Atlanta’s Young appeared in the top jersey list for the first time.

The top 10 most popular team merchandise, meanwhile, had the Lakers at first, followed by Brooklyn, Golden State Warriors, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors, and Milwaukee Bucks. Michael Angelo S. Murillo

Marvelous Marvin Hagler dead at 66

MARVELOUS Marvin Hagler, who dominated boxing’s middleweight division in the 1980s, has died at the age of 66, his wife Kay Hagler said on Saturday. Hagler, who legally changed his name to Marvelous in 1982, posted a record of 62-3-2 and ruled supreme until his reign as undisputed middleweight champion came to a controversial end in 1987 with a loss to Sugar Ray Leonard.

“I am sorry to make a very sad announcement. Today unfortunately, my beloved husband Marvelous Marvin passed away unexpectedly at his home here in New Hampshire. Our family requests that you respect our privacy during this difficult time,” Kay Hagler posted on the Marvelous Marvin Hagler Fan Club page on Facebook.

Regarded as one of boxing’s great champions and best pound-for-pound fighters, Hagler was knocked down just once in 67 professional bouts while 52 of his wins came by way of knockouts. — Reuters

Lee Westwood and Bryson DeChambeau set up final-round duel at The Players Championship

BRYSON DeChambeau figured there would be more duels with England’s Lee Westwood ahead and just as he predicted, the two will butt heads in the final group Sunday at The Players Championship in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Westwood carded a bogey-free, 4-under 68 on Saturday to hold onto the lead at 13-under-par 203 on the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, while DeChambeau moved into second place at 11 under.

Last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, they were in the same positions heading into Sunday’s final round, with DeChambeau finishing off the victory. It was then that DeChambeau figured he would duel with Westwood again.

Known for his long drives, DeChambeau has backed off his bombastic approach ever so slightly on the tricky Sawgrass track, leaning on his putter to make a difference. He drained a 14-foot birdie putt on the 18th green to move into a temporary tie for the lead with Westwood with a 5-under 67 in the third round.

Still on the course after DeChambeau’s finish, Westwood punctuated his round with four birdies on the back nine including a 25-foot right-breaking birdie putt on the famed island green at the 17th hole. He shot a steady even par on the front nine before making his first birdie at No. 10.

Westwood closed with a par save at 18 after he missed the green with his approach shot. The 47-year-old Westwood, who won most recently in January 2020 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, has not won on the PGA Tour since 2010 at the St. Jude Classic at Memphis.

Justin Thomas had the round of the day Saturday, firing an 8-under 64 to move to 10 under for the tournament and into a tie for third place with Doug Ghim (68). The round came despite posting a bogey at the par-4 fifth hole.

Ghim, who is on the hunt for his first career victory, was 5 under for the day before a bogey at No. 16. — Reuters

Fragile physique

Denizens in the City of Brotherly Love were, no doubt, sending lots of it to Joel Embiid following his sidelining last Friday. The initial prognosis wasn’t good; he crumpled to the floor in pain after landing awkwardly off a ferocious dunk midway through the third quarter of the Sixers’ match against the Wizards. Replays were cringe-inducing, to say the least; the evident hyper-extension of his left knee conjured thoughts of a serious injury, never mind that he was able to walk to the locker room of his own volition. And, based on magnetic resonance imaging scans that show no damage apart from a bone bruise, the fans’ prayers were heard and answered.

To be sure, Embiid’s well-documented susceptibility to physical trauma had all and sundry expecting the worst. His potential had the Sixers drafting him third overall in 2014 despite indications of vulnerability to pounding in his lone year as a Jayhawk. He then missed his first two, and large chunks of the next four, seasons in the National Basketball Assocation. During the times he has played, he’s every bit the two-way force scouts pegged him to be. Unfortunately, his availability has been spotty at best; between 2016 and 2020, he has suited up in all of 209 games — as much an indication of his poor conditioning as of his relative brittleness.

Up until Friday, however, Embiid had been solid in the Sixers’ 2020-21 campaign. He still got to miss a contest here and there; that said, he managed to suit up in four out of every games on the schedule, and how. His traditional stats are so transcendent as to draw comparisons to Shaquille O’Neal’s at the turn of the millennium. In the pace-and-space era, it’s no small feat to be mentioned alongside the last center to have taken the league by storm. And then there are his advanced metrics, which rightly place him at the top of any list for the Most Valuable Player award.

It remains to be seen how Embiid’s latest brush with injury will affect his bid for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy or, more importantly, the Sixers’ designs on the Larry O’Brien Trophy. He’s projected to be out for at least two weeks, by which time other stalwarts of the blue and red will have burned rubber in another eight games at minimum. Needless to say, what he does after he comes back will provide clarity to queries on his, and their, fitness to compete for the hardware. That hoops followers are breathing signs of relief even though he’ll be out anew speaks volumes of his fragile physique. In any case, there’s no other choice but to wait.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

The city we deserve now and in the future

There is so much to learn from 2020 as we go ahead in 2021 and beyond.

In normal times, when we look at our cities, we are resigned to see poverty and inequality, inadequate healthcare, chaotic traffic, crumbling infrastructure, pollution and garbage everywhere. This is just the way it has been and will be. It is what it is.

But calamities like coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can stir us from the trance of complacency and force us to ask first principle-questions about our cities: What is the community for? How is it put together? What are its basic needs? How should we provide them?

These are questions that 12 City Teams led by their mayors asked themselves during the six-month online conversations among themselves from July to December last year.

The cities include Candon in Ilocos Sur, Ilagan in Isabela, San Jose del Monte in Bulacan, Lipa in Batangas, Iriga in Camarines Sur, Tabaco in Albay, Sipalay and Himamaylan in Negros Occidental, Roxas in Capiz, Calbayog in Samar, Mati in Davao del Sur, and Gingoog in Misamis Oriental.

The City Teams exchanged experiences, best practices, as well as failures in a program dubbed Adapt+Innovate Towards the New Normal in this Time of Uncertainties. Galing Pook facilitated the sessions with the support of the Local Government Academy of the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) as well as the League of Cities of the Philippines (LCP).

Three lessons emerged from COVID-19 and from calamities like volcanic eruptions and typhoons.

First, cities are inadequate in keeping their citizens safe and healthy. City governments, even with the assistance of the national government, cannot do the work alone. Citizens must buy-in and empower themselves.

Second, citizens may be physically distanced by lockdowns — but because of technology they can be socially connected to their families, neighbors, friends, co-workers, and to city hall.

Third, by “going to the balcony,” city teams are forced to rethink and “visualize the future”; not going back to the old normal but building back better: more sustainable, livable, resilient, and, most important, caring communities.

From these lessons, what should cities do? What should citizens demand from their cities?

Cities now and in the future have to be safe and healthy, smart and sustainable. We want magaGaling na Pook: Ligtas, Matalino at Matatag.

For cities to be safer and healthier, Universal Health Care has to be implemented. Health is not only a basic right but also a responsibility. Every citizen has to be empowered to take care of himself/herself and their family. Safe water, sanitation and other public health interventions like vaccinations are public goods that should be provided, regardless of income, religion, and politics. The continuum of quality healthcare, from prevention, simple out-of-patient treatments, hospitalization, to rehabilitation should be accessible to all — rich and poor. In the age of pandemics, experts say that “Universal Health Care is not only a safety net but a matter of national security.”

Cities have to be smarter by using technology. Every community has to be linked to the internet so that citizens can have access to city hall. Cities can use artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies to make services more effective and efficient. Through e-governance, they can issue business permits faster, collect more taxes, inform constituents in real time, and deliver services better. Telemedicine, contact tracing, GPS, social media — are platforms that facilitate better governance.

And as cities plan ahead, sustainability has to be anchored on resiliency, livability, and caring environments. Resiliency involves the ability to adapt and innovate to disasters and calamities in order to survive and thrive. Livability includes the ability of citizens to have decent jobs, clean housing and neighborhoods, to walk, bike, and take affordable transport, as well as contribute to a vibrant diverse local economy.

One of the striking positive lessons of the pandemic is the ability of people to care: giving food to the hungry, transporting those who don’t have access, linking farmers to consumers, taking care of family, relatives, and friends. This caring environment is a must in replacing the cold, impersonal, and detached city neighborhoods we have at present.

Yes, cities have to be safer and healthier, smarter and more sustainable.

To do this we need leaders who are adaptive and innovative, and citizens who are empowered and “load-sharers.”

 

Eddie G. Dorotan is the Executive Director of Galing Pook Foundation, the Convener of COVID-19 Action Network, and a senior fellow of Action for Economic Reforms.

On the exodus of manufacturing and double dead agriculture

For many people, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an invitation to pivot to a better place. But what better place? Lest we pivot to nowhere and waste a good crisis, let’s study the signs.

Nissan Philippines closed its Santa Rosa, Laguna assembly plant in March 2021. Honda Cars Philippines shuttered its Sta. Rosa, Laguna plant, in operation since 1990, On Feb. 22, 2020 following a progressive decline in demand. Ford Motor Philippines closed its assembly plant in 2012. Though car assembly plants are headed for the door, Nissan, Honda, and Ford cars will still grace the showrooms, only now the cars are imported from Thailand and Indonesia. Likewise, there used to be three oil refineries in the country. The Caltex oil refining plant in Batangas owned by Chevron was shuttered in 2003 and converted into, you guessed it, a terminal for imported refined oil products! With the Filipinas Shell refinery mothballed in 2020, the only refinery left is Petron, whose owners are threatening to close down unless accorded some tax breaks on imported feedstock. Meanwhile, refined oil importer and distributor, Jetti Petroleum, is set to open its third import terminal in Camarines Sur. Caltex is being strategic: if you can’t beat the importers, you join them. This beeline to the door for manufacturers started long before the pandemic and nothing has transpired to stop it. For all manufacturing, not just car assembly and oil refining, the truth is the opposite of our vaunted tourism slogan, “More fun in the Philippines.”

The closure of assembly plants and oil refineries is the typical harvest of a domestic currency that favors imports. The once vibrant Australian car manufacturing sector blipped out in 2020 in the wake of the strength of the Australian dollar occasioned by the massive growth of exported mineral products (largely coal) to the People’s Republic of China. Dutch manufacturing declined (The Economist, Nov. 26, 1977) starting in the 1970s when the dollar inflows from export of Groningen gas pushed the Dutch guilder to record highs. The same fate befell Spanish manufacturing in the 16th century when gold flowing from Latin American colonies made the Spanish peseta so strong it cheapened imports so causing the wipeout of domestic production. The phenomenon — christened “Dutch Disease” by The Economist in 1977 — happens when the singular success in the export of extracted mineral and/or indigenous resources pushes the domestic currency so high it whiplashes all manufacturing. The export of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) also administered a Dutch Disease whiplash on Philippine manufacturers. High-value added activities like Agriculture (grains, meats, fruits, etc.) are especially penalized. In the parlance local pork, Agriculture ends up “double dead”: killed first by Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) and then killed again by a pro-import ecology.

The interesting work of Bergsten and Gagnon (2012, 2017), lately revived by Schreiber (NYT, March 2021), revealed the massive loss for the US economy exacted by currency manipulators: one to five million jobs! This is overlaid on a natural tendency for the US dollar to overvalue due to the foreign appetite for US bonds and treasuries as safe haven instruments. Overvaluation is “a war on the workingman,” observes Mike Stomo of the Coalition for a Prosperous America (sic Schreiber). Gagnon (2020) estimated the dollar overvaluation in 2020 at 10-20%. All that translates into a massive trade deficit and massive debt obligation of the USA against the rest of the world. Manufacturing in the USA has been hollowing out so that between 2000 and 2010, manufacturing lost 5 million jobs. Since the massive debt is denominated in dollars, its repayment should not pose a problem for the USA as the issuer of the currency — it can just print greenbacks. But the US dollar is also the global medium of exchange for which the US collects massive seigniorage. Printing greenbacks willy-nilly will erode the primacy of the US dollar and reduce the associated seigniorage. The USA is thus walking a tightrope. Trump’s MAGA fulminated against unfair traders and the bloating trade deficit but he obsessed over the wrong instrument — tariffs — to do the job. The trade deficit has only grown since! President Biden has now pledged to narrow the trade deficit. But how?

Why not a technology-driven response to the challenge instead of a fiscal and/or a monetary one? After all, the USA is still a technology leader. That’s the path favored by Making Things: 21st Century Manufacturing and Design (2012) by the National Academy of Engineering, following the three decades old view initiated by the famous MIT volume Made in America. The technology pathway has not worked. Why? US manufacturers faced two options: either stay and innovate with uncertain returns or relocate offshore and make almost sure profit. With the myopic horizon and shareholder impatience haunting US firms, relocation easily won.

Bergsten and Gagnon are more realistic: manufacturing will stay only if the US becomes a competitive venue for manufacturing. Their recommendation: a “dollar policy” to maintain a desirable value for the US dollar: use taxes to discourage demand for dollars and use tooth-for-tooth countervailing action to discourage currency manipulation. For example, when a foreign country aggressively buys dollars to depress the value of its currency, the US Treasury must aggressively buy that currency to prop it up. And further, the USA must lead a coalition of the supposed victims to confront the currency rogues. Good luck!

The list of countries identified by Bergsten and Gagnon as currency manipulators is interesting: Japan, China, Denmark, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, India, Germany, Norway, and Switzerland. And in 2020, Vietnam. These countries deliberately leaned on a pro-tradeable ecology to attract foreign direct investors, grow their exports resulting in large trade surpluses against the world. But look closely at this list — a veritable honor roll of countries in the pink of economic health! An unintended revelation from Bergsten and Gagnon: the global monetary system is a persistent tragedy of the commons where currency rogues win. With its monetary sovereignty and unhindered by the US-type dilemma, shouldn’t the Philippines be aspiring to join the exalted ranks of currency rogues?

The Department of Trade and Industry, blaming imports of CBU (completely built units) for the closure of local car assemblers, has imposed safeguard duties of from P70,000 to P120,000 per unit or about 10% tariff in 2021. Safeguard measures are additional tariffs against imports; but like the Trump tariffs, they don’t address the root cause of the problem. In 2020 alone, the peso appreciated by about 10%, effectively pre-empting the imposed safeguard duties. The car assembly workers’ union, the oil refiners and pro-agriculture lobby are barking for relief from the wrong agencies. They should be barking at the BSP!

Unless we pivot away from a pro-import to a pro-tradable ecology, the flight of Manufacturing and the double-dead Agriculture will continue and we shall have wasted a good crisis.

 

Raul V. Fabella is a retired professor of the UP School of Economics, a member of the National Academy of Science and Technology and an honorary professor of the Asian Institute of Management. He gets his dopamine fix from bicycling and tending to flowers with wife Teena.

How powerful is the Philippines?

How powerful is the Philippines when measured against other nations? How much influence do we wield in global affairs?

To answer these questions, we first have to define what constitutes “power.” For much of history, power was defined by territorial reach, size of population, national wealth, military might or a combination thereof.

These attributes are referred to by political scientists as “hard power.”

But globalization has changed the world order. With borderless trade, open migration and multilateral alliances as the new norm, the definition of power had shifted to something completely different. Power is now defined as the ability to control people and events, the ability to influence decisions, the ability to act towards producing a desired effect, the ability to convert mindsets and the ability to get others to do what you want, not through coercion but by persuasion. These attributes are known as “soft power” and it is the world’s new benchmark of supremacy.

Brand Finance is the world’s leading brand valuation company. Based in the United Kingdom Brand Finance assesses the soft power of countries according to a five-point criteria. These include: the popularity (or familiarity) with a nation; its level of positive reputation; its degree of influence in global affairs; the effectiveness of its anti-COVID-19 response (a criteria for 2020 only); and what it calls the “seven soft power pillars.” Let me break down what these seven pillars are.

Pillar 1 is Business and Trade. Taken into consideration are the vibrancy of a country’s economy, its business environment, volume of trade and investments, level of infrastructure development, number of global brands and prospects for future growth.

Pillar 2 is Governance. Evaluated are a nation’s adherence to the rule of law, its human rights record, its crime rate and internal security conditions.

Pillar 3 is International Relations. Assessed is the scope and depth of a country’s diplomatic relations, its participation in international organizations and alliances, its level of outward foreign aid, and climate change action.

Pillar 4 is Culture and Heritage. Appraised is a nation’s popularity in tourism, cuisine, sports, music, fine arts, film, and fashion.

Pillar 5 is Media and Communication. Weighed are a country’s visibility in traditional media, social media and advertising.

Pillar 6 is Education and Science. Approximated are the quality of higher education and technological proficiency of a country.

Pillar 7 is People and Values. Estimated are the perceived trustworthiness, character and values of its people.

For the Country Brand rank of 2021, 75,000 respondents originating from 102 countries were made to evaluate 105 countries in terms of the criteria mentioned above. The views of 778 experts from 47 countries were also taken into consideration. These include business leaders, journalists, academics, and politicians.

How did the Philippines measure up?

Over the past 10 years, the Philippines posted two highs in the global power rankings. In 2016, when we were deemed the 29th most powerful country in the world and in 2019 when we ranked 25th. Within ASEAN-6, we were the second most powerful in 2015 and 2019 trailing Indonesia, whose global rank was at 19th and 15th place, for both years respectively.

In 2015, the strength of the Philippines was largely derived from good governance and the vibrancy of business and trade. In 2019, it was derived from the vibrancy of business and trade, culture and heritage, and values of the people.

Things took a turn for the worst in 2020 and 2021. From our lofty perch, the Philippines plunged to being the 42nd most powerful country in 2020 due to the eroding quality of governance, corruption, our poor human rights record, worsening internal security, and weaker international relations. From second most powerful in ASEAN, we stumbled to being the 5th most powerful, only ahead of Vietnam.

Our global soft power rank further eroded in 2021, falling to 53rd place. Statistics show that this was largely due to the government’s relatively poor anti-COVID response and overall governance. As is fast becoming a recurring theme, we have become the least powerful country among ASEAN-6, overtaken by Vietnam which did exceptionally well in its anti-COVID response. Vietnam is presently considered the world’s 47th most powerful country.

Indonesia is no longer the most powerful country in ASEAN. Singapore has taken pole position with its global rank of 20. Thailand follows with a rank of 33, Malaysia at 39, and Indonesia at 45.

One bit of good news is that the Philippines has emerged as the 5th most preferred tourist destination in Asia following Singapore, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea. We are preferred over China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia.

As a Filipino, it is demoralizing to see our country lose its gravitas and influence for two consecutive years.

Making matters worse is that the slippage was significant at 17 places in 2020 and 11 places in 2021.

But alas, the fates of nations are determined by their leaders. Our diminishing power in the world is largely attributed to poor governance. The next administration cannot come soon enough. Hopefully, we can gain lost ground then.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Twitter @aj_masigan

Regaining gender equity momentum amid modernization and pandemic changes

EFFORTS to close the gender gap have been stalled by two global experiences that have disproportionately harmed women: the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and disruptions brought by new technologies. To meet these challenges and regain momentum toward gender equity, women in the Philippines must prepare for the transitions ahead and take advantage of growing needs for scarce skills — with collective support from public and private players.

In moving forward, the Philippines starts from a position of relative strength. In a context in which most nations still have a significant gender equity gap, the World Economic Forum (WEF), in its Global Gender Gap Report 2020, placed the Philippines as the most equitable in Asia. The study measures the gender gap based on labor participation and income, education, health, and political empowerment in each country.

In 2020, the WEF gave the Philippines a gender equity score of 78.1%, essentially unchanged from 2018, and well above the global average of 68.6%. But as the Philippines’ score remained steady, countries including Spain, Latvia, and Costa Rica improved their situations dramatically, and the Philippines global ranking fell from 8th place in 2018 to 16th place in 2020.

Since 2006, when the WEF began its gender equity rankings, the Philippines has excelled in reaching gender parity in education and health standards and has lagged significantly in terms of labor participation and income and political empowerment. One reason is a sharp drop off between women achieving an advanced degree and gaining an entry-level job. A separate McKinsey report found that while women account for 53% of university graduates in the Philippines, they only make up 43% of entry-level professionals.

COVID-19 and changes brought by new technologies have made closing the gender gap more difficult. In 2020 the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) found that globally jobs held by women are 19% more vulnerable than those held by men. Indeed, women dominate jobs in three of the four economic sectors most affected by the pandemic. In food service and entertainment globally, for instance, women accounted for 39% of the global workforce yet suffered 54% of overall jobs losses as of May 2020.

Looking at two hard-hit sectors, this global trend is likely to be reflected in the Philippines. In 2018, the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that women held 60% of the jobs in the wholesale and retail trade and 53% of those in accommodation and food services.

Beyond lost employment, the pandemic has also added to a general burden on women as primary caregivers for children and the elderly. Home schooling, increased housework, and greater attention needed for health and hygiene, among other effects of the pandemic, have disproportionately fallen to women, often taking them away from paid employment.

Coupled with the new challenges to gender equity brought by the pandemic, the move toward advanced technologies — automation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, and other digital innovations — is disrupting the workplace in a way that could potentially leave many women behind. While the trend to digitization was apparent before COVID-19 struck, the pandemic has accelerated adoption of these new technologies globally as companies and individuals were forced to embrace online work, shopping, and entertainment.

MGI estimates that the overall direct impact on jobs will be similar for women and men, even though individual sectors tend to be dominated by one or the other. Overall, in 10 countries studied, 20% of working women could lose their jobs to automation by 2030, compared to 21% of working men. But as jobs are lost, new ones are created. In its baseline scenario, in the 10 countries studied, MGI estimates that a net total of about 150 million jobs will be created, and filling these would require a transition to new skills in the workforce.

The institute estimates that globally 40 million to 160 million women will need to transition to new jobs by 2030, a wide range that reflects the uncertainty of the timing of adopting digital technologies. In total, 7% to 24% of employed women will face disruption, compared to 8% to 28% of employed men.

But while the scale of disruption may be similar between men and women, women will face greater challenges in moving into new occupations. Finding time to learn new skills could be more difficult for women who are more often weighed down with unpaid caregiving responsibilities, are less mobile because of risks to their physical safety, and are generally under-represented in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) disciplines, among other obstacles.

Although challenges persist, the changes also present opportunities that can be seized. For example, MGI estimates that demand for advanced IT and programming skills will increase by as much as 90% over the next 15 years. Overall, basic skills in digital literacy will be needed in many positions, including those not directly concerned with technology. With efforts focused on helping women overcome their unique obstacles to transitioning into the new economy, progress toward closing the gender gap could be accelerated.

For example, women can be encouraged to pursue advanced degrees in STEM disciplines. Of the 227,000 students studying engineering and technology in Philippine universities in the 2017-18 school year, only 31% were women. Similarly, of 316,000 IT students, only 39% were women. Some efforts are already underway to address this gap. The International Labor Organization and the JPMorgan Chase Foundation, for instance, launched a program in 2021 focused on preparing women in the Philippines for STEM-related careers.

Measures must also be found to relieve women of the burden of unpaid care responsibilities, allowing more time for re-training and paying jobs. The rise of remote work and education during the pandemic has helped address this, giving women and men greater flexibility. More is needed, however, to free women of the established and pervasive structural and societal barriers to participate fully in the workforce.

Closing the gender gap goes beyond meeting a sense of moral fairness to delivering significant benefits to corporations and the economy generally. McKinsey studies have shown, for example, that companies with the highest gender diversity are 25% more likely to have above-average profit than those with the lowest levels of diversity. Similar results are shown for companies with a higher proportion of female executives.

Economic growth is also buoyed by gender equity. Another McKinsey study found that if no action were taken to counter the adverse effects on gender diversity brought by the pandemic, global gross domestic product (GDP) would be about $1 trillion less by 2030 than if the status quo continued. Conversely, if the gender gap were successfully addressed, global GDP would be about $13 trillion more in 2030 than the baseline projection.

The theme of this year’s International Women’s Day is “Choose to Challenge,” and the time is right to challenge the harm to gender equity brought by the pandemic and the move toward a global digital economy. Public and private leaders can take this moment to understand the unique challenges faced by women to overcome the impact of the health crisis and successfully transition into new employment. Success not only creates greater social equity, but also can support a strong economy.

 

Kristine Romano is the managing partner of McKinsey Philippines and is based in the Manila office, where Oleg Timchenko is also based as a partner.

Global baby drought of COVID-19 crisis risks population crunch

MORE than a year since the global pandemic struck, its damage to population growth is starting to become starkly clear, and not just because of the grim death toll.

Major economies from Italy to Singapore, already afflicted by dire demographics, are seeing that phenomenon accelerate after measures limiting social contacts and the worst growth crisis in generations combined to prevent or dissuade people from having babies.

While workplace closures and forced isolation might have encouraged couples to spend time together productively, the number of newborns has been dwarfed by plunging fertility emerging in national data for 2020. They range from France’s lowest birth rate since World War II, to Chinese authorities receiving 15% fewer registrations for babies.

That points to a potentially ruinous legacy of the crisis. Not only have governments racked up enormous borrowings to fund economic aid, but the supply of future taxpayers to service that debt and fund public pension systems now looks even thinner than it was. Such a blow would be particularly crippling in parts of Asia and Europe with aging populations.

“The longer and more severe the recession, the steeper the fall in birth rates, and the more likely it is that a fall in birth rates becomes a permanent change in family planning,” said HSBC Holdings Plc economist James Pomeroy. If his forecasts pan out, “it’s going to lower potential growth rates and it makes high levels of debt less sustainable in the long term.”

Within two decades, 10% to 15% fewer adults may join the workforce, according to Mr. Pomeroy’s calculations. He reckons a recent projection by demographers at the Lancet journal for the world’s population to start shrinking in the 2060s already risks looking obsolete, with an inflection a decade sooner.

A dropping birth rate is particularly evident in Italy, one of the first outbreak hotspots. Births in 15 cities there plummeted 22% in December, exactly nine months after the pandemic struck. Comparable effects are appearing elsewhere: Japan saw the fewest newborns on record in 2020, while Taiwan’s fertility rate fell below one child per woman for the first time.

RECORD LOW
Fiscally speaking, such outcomes are ominous. In the US for example, even without the effects of the pandemic, retirees are due to outnumber children by the 2030s.

In the European Union, the ratio of people over 65 to those aged 15-64, a key metric on the affordability of social services for the old, will probably deteriorate. That would exacerbate a situation that was already worsening, with pension spending rising by nearly a third between 2008 and 2016.

“The fiscal impact can be a double whammy,” said Sonal Varma, an economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “Falling population growth will hurt potential growth (as the labor force falls), hurting tax revenues. And this will occur concurrently with increased spending on public pensions and healthcare.”

Lower birthrates have also vastly outweigh whatever effect could have resulted from existing couples being kept indoors and in each other’s company. In one outlier of fertility, six women in a single street in the English city of Bristol became concurrently pregnant in 2020, according to the BBC.

Even if vaccine drives are successful in taming the virus’s spread, the economic fallout, such as joblessness, is likely to last past the point where the health crisis abates, with a corresponding brake on births.

Things might not necessarily improve when the economic data show a recovery, however, considering that fertility across major economies has steadily declined for decades.

The crisis has been most damaging for people in the prime childbearing ages of their 20s and 30s. Research by the Guttmacher Institute found the pandemic led more than 40% of women in the US to change plans about when to have children or how many to have.

A study published by Germany’s IZA–Institute of Labor Economics projected that the drop in US births will be 50% larger than during the 2008-09 crisis. Consultancy PWC predicts a “dramatic decline” in UK newborns this year.

Lockdowns have also physically prevented and hindered people from forming relationships that could ultimately lead to pregnancy.

“Almost nonexistent,” is how Sierra Reed, a 34-year-old Californian, describes her experience of dating last year once the pandemic hit. Even when lockdowns loosened, she stayed wary.

“There was a big part of me that was still super uncomfortable with being in spaces of people, without masks, and doing typical date activities like dining together,” she said. 

As evidence of how the pandemic is delaying family formation, the number of marriages in Singapore sank about 10% in 2020. The government has boosted cash payments on offer to encourage citizens to have children despite the coronavirus.

What’s more worrisome for some countries now is that lower fertility will be hard to reverse in line with other economic healing.

“When you start delaying births by a few years, it’s possible that some of those births will come back, but it’s possible that some of them aren’t” going to, said Phillip Levine, a professor of economics who analyzes childbearing data at Wellesley College in Massachusetts.

Some births won’t occur “because the window for postponement is narrowing down,” said Tomas Sobotka, a fertility expert at the Vienna Institute of Demography in Austria.

“Many women and men who plan to have a baby in the future are now in their late 30s or early 40s, and likely to face infertility when trying to have a child later,” he said. -— Bloomberg

Londoners protest after police officer charged with woman’s murder

LONDON — Police in London clashed with mourners and protesters on Saturday after more than a thousand people gathered to mark the killing of a 33-year-old woman, hours after the police officer charged with her murder appeared in court.

Sarah Everard’s disappearance as she walked home on the evening of Mar. 3 had led to a wave of accounts from women about the dangers of walking streets alone at night, and dismay at the failure of police and wider society to tackle this.

Early on Saturday an impromptu memorial with flowers and candles sprang up around the bandstand on Clapham Common in southwest London, near where Ms. Everard was last seen alive.

Kate, Britain’s Duchess of Cambridge, was among those who paid their respects. A palace official said Kate “remembers what it was like to walk around London at night before she was married.”

By late Saturday around a thousand people — mostly women — gathered at the site to pay their respects and protest at the lack of security they felt when out alone. Some chanted “shame on you” at police who were present.

Campaign groups had wanted to organize a formal vigil, but London’s Metropolitan Police said people should not gather due to coronavirus restrictions. The head of the force, Cressida Dick, said any vigil “would be unlawful and would be unsafe.”

As tensions mounted, Reuters witnesses saw police drag several women away from the gathering on Clapham Common.

Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner Helen Ball said four people were arrested for public order offenses and breaches of the Health Protection Regulations.

“We absolutely did not want to be in a position where enforcement action was necessary,” Ms. Ball said in a statement. “But we were placed in this position because of the overriding need to protect people’s safety.”

London Mayor Sadiq Khan — who is responsible for policing in the city — said the officers’ response “was at times neither appropriate or proportionate” and added that he was seeking an urgent explanation from Dick.

Labor Party leader Keir Starmer called the scenes “deeply disturbing” and Conservative interior minister Priti Patel said she too wanted answers from police about “upsetting” images.

Earlier on Saturday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he and his partner Carrie Symonds would light a candle in memory of Everard. “I will do everything I can to make sure the streets are safe and ensure women and girls do not face harassment or abuse,” he said.

Appearing at London’s Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Saturday morning, 48-year-old police officer Wayne Couzens, wearing a grey tracksuit, spoke only to confirm his identity.

Mr. Couzens’s lawyer did not enter a plea to the charges of kidnap and murder ahead of a fuller court hearing scheduled for Tuesday. Mr. Couzens remains in custody.

Police discovered Ms. Everard’s body on Wednesday in woodland about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of London. The court heard that her body was found in a builder’s refuse bag, and was identified using dental records.

Mr. Couzens joined the Metropolitan Police in 2018 and guarded foreign embassies before his arrest.

England’s police watchdog has launched an investigation into the Metropolitan Police’s handling of the case. — Reuters

Island in middle of Atlantic close to COVID-19 herd immunity

LISBON — The small, lush green Portuguese island of Corvo, home to around 400 people, has vaccinated most of its population against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and will soon reach herd immunity, according to its only doctor.

“There’s an atmosphere of celebration in Corvo,” Dr. Antonio Salgado told the Lusa news agency.

He said the vast majority of the island’s residents were likely to become immune by the end of the month, adding: “From now on, we will feel safe.”

Authorities in Corvo, the smallest island of the Azores archipelago, on Friday finished vaccinating 322 people with a second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. That is about 85% of the island’s population and 95% of those eligible to receive shots.

Herd immunity happens when enough people in a population have immunity to an infection to be able to effectively stop that disease from spreading. Experts say it could kick in when between 50% and 70% gains immunity through vaccination.

The island, an area of only just over 17 square kilometers with sheer cliffs running along the coast and a volcanic crater lake, has reported only one coronavirus case since the start of the pandemic.

The Azores’ regional government decided to include all those aged over 16 in Corvo’s first phase of the vaccination roll-out because of the island’s characteristics, such as the small size of its population and the fact it only has one health center.

Gustavo Borges, Azores’ COVID-19 coordinator, told Publico newspaper he believed Corvo was the first place in Europe to carry out a “mass vaccination of the entire population.”

“Having 85% of people vaccinated is a milestone,” he said. Reuters

North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — North Korea has not responded to behind-the-scenes diplomatic outreach since mid-February by President Joseph R. Biden’s administration, including to Pyongyang’s mission to the United Nations, a senior Biden administration official told Reuters on Saturday.

The disclosure of the so-far unsuccessful US outreach, which has not been previously reported, raises questions about how Mr. Biden will address mounting tensions with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

It also adds a new dimension to a visit America’s top diplomat and defense secretary will make next week to South Korea and Japan, where concerns over North Korea’s nuclear arsenal are expected to be high on the agenda.

The senior Biden administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, offered few details on the diplomatic push. But the official said there had been efforts to reach out to the North Korean government “through several channels starting in mid-February, including in New York.”

“To date, we have not received any response from Pyongyang,” the official said.

North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Biden administration has so far been cautious in publicly describing its approach to North Korea, saying it is carrying out a comprehensive policy review following former President Donald Trump’s unprecedented engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Mr. Trump’s efforts failed to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

The Biden administration official said it appeared there had been no active dialogue between the United States and North Korea for more than a year, including at the end of Mr. Trump’s administration, “despite multiple attempts during that time by the United States to engage.”

The US official declined to speculate about how the silence from Pyongyang would impact the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review, which was expected to be completed in the coming weeks.

During his election campaign, Mr. Biden described Mr. Kim as a “thug” and said he would only meet him “on the condition that he would agree that he would be drawing down his nuclear capacity.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held out the possibility of additional sanctions, in coordination with allies, to press North Korea to denuclearize.

Sanctions have so far failed to convince Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.

Mr. Blinken is slated to host the first face-to-face discussions between senior Biden administration and Chinese officials on Mar. 18 in Alaska. The Trump administration accused China of failing to enforce sanctions against North Korea.

A confidential UN (United Nations) report found that North Korea maintained and developed its nuclear and ballistic missile programs throughout 2020 in violation of international sanctions, helping fund them with some $300 million stolen through cyber hacks.

The report by independent sanctions monitors said Pyongyang “produced fissile material, maintained nuclear facilities and upgraded its ballistic missile infrastructure” while continuing to seek material and technology for those programs from abroad. — Reuters

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