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AstraZeneca clot worries muddle attempt to vaccinate the world

GROWING worries that AstraZeneca Plc’s COVID-19 vaccine causes rare blood clots could hinder immunization campaigns across the world, from London to Seoul.

Reviews by UK and European Union (EU) regulators finding potential links to the unusual side effects are another blow for the shot, a cheaper and easier-to-deploy product that many nations are counting on in a bid to end the pandemic.

Safety concerns following increasing reports of blood clots in people who received the inoculation could shake confidence in it, even though regulators have agreed that the benefits outweigh the risks. Although many regions are turning their attention to vaccines from Johnson & Johnson and developers in China, Russia and elsewhere, they’re in a difficult position with demand for doses far outstripping supply.

“Better Astra than nothing,” said Michael Kinch, a drug development expert and associate vice chancellor at Washington University in St. Louis. “In an under-vaccinated country, I think you have no choice but to take it.”

Scrutiny of the vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, has been particularly intense in Europe, where skepticism about shots was already running high in places such as France and Poland. The UK on Wednesday recommended that people under the age of 30 should be offered alternatives to Astra’s vaccine, and countries across the EU have also imposed age restrictions.

HIGH STAKES
Governments and regulators elsewhere are watching closely, too, and in some cases taking action. There’s a lot at stake, with AstraZeneca’s shot accounting for almost a quarter of the total supply deals signed for 2021, according to Airfinity Ltd., a London-based research firm.

Covax, an initiative designed to level global access that’s backed by groups including the World Health Organization (WHO), is highly reliant on the AstraZeneca vaccine. Shots from Pfizer, Inc. and Moderna, Inc. are more expensive and harder to store.

Even before the results of the latest reviews in Europe, South Korea moved to temporarily suspend AstraZeneca vaccinations for people under 60.

Authorities in Canada, meanwhile, are reviewing the new guidance, as well as information submitted by AstraZeneca, and will determine further steps later, federal health ministry spokesperson Anna Maddison wrote in an email. Canada had suspended plans in late March to give the vaccine to people below the age of 55, citing blood clot concerns.

Regulators believe the vaccine is safe and effective and are leaving it up to individual countries to make their own decisions, according to Anthony Harnden, deputy chair of the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization. There aren’t a lot of options for many countries.

“This is important for the whole world,” he said.

Countries in Africa, such as Namibia, Ivory Coast and Senegal, said they’ll go ahead with plans to administer the doses as they arrive, pointing to comments backing the vaccine from regulators and the WHO. Cameroon had previously stopped Astra inoculations.

“For Namibia this changes nothing,” Namibian health minister Kalumbi Shangula said. “It has not been conclusively demonstrated in clinical settings. We still plan to administer the vaccine when we get it.”

LINK LIKELY
The UK’s move to avoid giving the shots to young adults follows an evaluation by the country’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency that evidence of a link between the vaccine and the sometimes deadly clots is “stronger, but more work is still needed.”

AstraZeneca said it’s studying the individual cases to understand the “epidemiology and possible mechanisms that could explain these extremely rare events.” It’s also working with regulators on their request for new labels on its shots, it said in a statement.

UK health officials described the clotting syndrome as similar to a rare side effect of treatment with heparin, an anticoagulant, in which the body forms antibodies against blood platelets. How or why the vaccine might be involved in such a process is still under investigation.

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) said that unusual blood clots with low platelets should be listed as very rare side effects, although the regulator didn’t issue any guidelines on age.

The EMA’s analysis was based on a review of 86 instances that had been reported as of March 22, including 18 fatalities. Some 25 million people had received the Astra shot in the UK and Europe by that point. On April 4, there had been 222 reported instances of that type of clotting out of about 34 million people, the agency said.

FIRST DOSE
So far, most of the cases occurred in women under the age of 60, taking place within two weeks of vaccination. The events generally occurred after people received their first dose, so it’s unclear how a second dose might affect people, health officials said.

Many countries have populations that are significantly younger than in Europe, potentially pointing to a higher risk of the clotting, even if it remains very rare. For now, it’s unclear how the data will be interpreted globally, particularly in developing nations that had been banking on widespread use of the shot.

“I believe that the epidemiological data show that the natural infection is far worse than the severity of the side effects of the vaccine,” Washington University’s Mr. Kinch said. — Bloomberg

Swiss luxury watchmakers learn to love the pre-owned market

ZURICH — Swiss luxury watch brands have long considered the market for second-hand watches as a potential threat to their business, but now their view is shifting as they see it can provide valuable insights into pricing and demand.

Initially seen as cannibalizing sales of new watches, the market for previously owned or “pre-owned” watches has become the best place to assess the value of a watch over time and provide liquidity to watch owners who want to trade in their watch for a new one.

Richemont, which owns Cartier, has so far been the only big luxury goods company to embrace the pre-owned market with its acquisition of online store Watchfinder https://www.watchfinder.com in 2018.

Watchfinder has just launched a home collection service to make transactions easier during the pandemic.

Justin Reis, chief executive of pre-owned platform WatchBox https://www.thewatchbox.com/ch/en, said the size of the pre-owned watch market was estimated at $16 billion and WatchBox’s business was growing about 25% per year, including last year, when sales of new watches took a severe hit.

“We’ve seen so much in terms of new tailwinds pushing this sector. There’s been a cultural change where people are more emphatic about collectibles,” Mr. Reis told Reuters.

Mr. Reis said prices for popular Rolex, Patek Philippe or Audemars Piguet models had increased by around 25% and smaller independent brands like H. Moser & Cie, F.P. Journe or De Bethune were also gaining traction on WatchBox.

WatchBox and Watchfinder both set out as online platforms, but now also have some physical showrooms.

H. Moser & Cie head Edouard Meylan told Reuters demand for the brand’s new watches had benefited from the “good job” WatchBox and peers were doing in the second-hand market.

“Some brands still try to fight this market instead of working with it,” Meylan said. “We monitor it almost day by day, it gives us indications on prices, on what we should produce,” he said in an interview ahead of the Watches & Wonders virtual industry event launched on Wednesday..

Watch brands like Audemars Piguet and established retailers like Bucherer have already started selling pre-owned watches, while eBay recently launched an authenticity guarantee for luxury watches sold on its marketplace.

Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Jon Cox, who estimated the size of the pre-owned market at close to $20 billion, said brands used to see the secondary market as a channel for discounted grey market products, but tighter controls had helped ease that problem with some pre-owned models now selling at a premium.

“This is a positive,” Mr. Cox said. “It is part of the change that ultimately can rejuvenate an industry that struggled for much of the last decade.” — Reuters

UK launches welcome package for resettling Hong Kongers

LONDON — Britain has pledged £43 million ($59 million) to help people arriving from Hong Kong find jobs, houses and schools under an initiative allowing millions to resettle after China’s imposition of new security laws in the former British colony.

An escalating row with Beijing over reforms in Hong Kong has seen Britain open its doors to potentially more than 5 million people, offering them the chance to live and work in the country and eventually apply for citizenship.

The bulk of the money announced on Thursday will be spent by local government on programmes to help with English language support and housing costs for new arrivals. The government will also launch 12 virtual regional offices to provide help with tasks like registering for healthcare and schools.

These ‘Welcome Hubs’ will also provide advice on how to set up businesses in Britain.

“This programme will ensure British National (Overseas) status holders and their families have the very best start as soon as they arrive, and support to help them find a home, schools for their children, opportunity and prosperity,” said communities minister Robert Jenrick.

Britain says Chinese-imposed security laws and democracy reforms in Hong Kong have violated the terms of the agreement that saw the semi-autonomous city handed back to China in 1997. Ministers say the visa programme is a way of honoring its side of that deal.

China has reacted angrily to the offer and says the West’s views on its actions over Hong Kong are clouded by misinformation and an imperial hangover.

Since its launch in January, around 27,000 people had applied for the new visa as of March 19. Although overall estimates of demand are uncertain, the government forecasts between 258,000 and 322,000 applicants over five years.

The programme is open to 2.9 million people classed as British National (Overseas) — a special status that specifically relates to Hong Kong — and a further 2.3 million eligible dependents. — Reuters

Peril of divergent economic recoveries for the Philippines

 

BusinessWorld reported last Wednesday that Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez announced the National Government’s plan to “tap the US bond market before rates skyrocket.” Secretary Dominguez did not elaborate during his interview with Bloomberg Television’s Kathleen Hays but in the congressional hearing in August 2020, the Government disclosed its plan to raise some P3 trillion or $62 billion from both domestic and international sources.

It would be a smart move for the Government to return to the US capital market but it should do it fast. The Philippines had impressed investment bankers and fund managers before the pandemic with, one, its excellent record of undertaking policy and structural reforms that has endured for 25 years; and, two, positive macroeconomic outcomes. Our past fund-raising activities were always capped by tight spreads and oversubscriptions.

Today’s growth narrative is definitely less exciting. But in online investment roadshows, last year’s dismal performance of a 9.5% contraction is something that could be explained. The weak public health system is a legacy issue and definitely, a work in progress. We could also make up for the delays in the vaccine rollout. These reasons are matters of governance and if the Administration is serious about leaving a good legacy in the last quarter of the game, economic managers can propose appropriate changes in leadership in the health and other concerned sectors. If the Palace accepts, the announcement by the Presidential Spokesperson could attract more than a hundred thousand hits.

It can also be conveyed to prospective investors that the forthcoming 2022 national election would be an occasion for renewed hope and expectation.

But the global economy and financial markets have become more complicated, as the April 2021 releases of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) would show. Stronger recoveries from the pandemic are now more apparent in the US, UK, and other advanced economies (AEs) and these should usher in a stronger rebound in the global economy in 2021. The positive assessment of AEs was based on, one, the successful vaccine programs; two, business adaptation to the challenges of lockdown through digital platforms and innovative logistics; and, three, US President Joe Biden’s $1.9-trillion fiscal stimulus package.

We are now looking at higher global growth of 6% this year and 4.4% in 2022, against the January 2021 WEO forecasts. This upgraded outlook did not come cheap. The Fund claimed that governments around the world spent $16 trillion in pandemic and economic mitigation without which, the global economy could have shrunk instead by 10% in 2020.

But in her blog, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath admitted that “the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed.”

The WEO equated the cost of the pandemic to wider income inequality. Some 95 million more people descended into extreme poverty in 2020. This is expected to be felt more acutely in emerging markets and developing economies (EDMs) where the initial success in mitigating the business fallout from the pandemic may not likely be replicated. Their economic scars are expected to be deeper than those in the AEs.

This is the essence of divergent economic recoveries.

Following this trend, a key issue found in both the WEO and GFSR is the anticipated increase in interest rates. For EDMs, the Fund described such anticipation “with trepidation.” The reason is quite obvious. They are faced with slower economic recovery due to their weak pandemic management and vaccine rollout. Their fiscal space is rather limited. With shaky economic prospects, their external payments position may be challenged by a possible drying up of capital flows. With the prospects of higher interest rates in the AEs, EMDs will have to balance the need for matching US interest rates and the need to sustain monetary policy support to their own rebound. Financial market stability could be compromised if the balancing proves wrong.

This is the peril of divergent economic recoveries.

For the Philippines, as for other EDMs, “what matters is the reason for the rise in US interest rates.”

There are both good and bad reasons for interest rates to climb and their impact on EDMs like the Philippines can range wide.

When the reasons are benign like higher job creation in the US and accelerated rollout of vaccines all over the county, foreign investors in the Philippines may be expected to bring in more capital, both portfolio and direct. It’s risk on, and even Filipino resident investors could share their optimism and we should see demand for both equities and bonds further expand. This is a balance of payments (BoP) — positive because with stronger economic activities in the US, its trading partners stand to benefit. Exports and imports increase, demand for Filipino workers improves with higher OFW remittances, capital and financial accounts both capture renewed foreign investment sentiment. This is the healthy type of BoP, not the type that is driven by weak market sentiment and animal spirit. This is when production is down so imports are low; demand for the dollar is weak so the peso is strong; foreign debt increases so the proceeds beef up the gross international reserves.

If interest rates spiral up due to higher inflation in the US, the effect on the Philippines could still be benign, or on balance, constructive. It is benign because it reflects optimistic market sentiment about the economic outlook of the world’s biggest economy. The prospects for recovery could be clearer for the country’s propensity to consume and invest so that those macroeconomic indicators including domestic interest rates, exchange rate and capital flows are moving in the right direction.

However, when interest rates in the US or in Europe start exhibiting correlation with hawkish central bank actions, or expectations of more hawkish monetary policy, that could be harmful to EDMs including the Philippines by driving up domestic interest rates. Funding the budget and development becomes costly.

Fund research also shows that a monetary policy surprise consisting of one percentage point increase in the US Fed, for instance, tends to cause one-third of a percentage point increase in long-term interest rates in the average emerging markets, or two-thirds of a percentage point in an emerging market with speculative credit rating. The Fund documents that this quick development could cause, all others being equal, capital outflows from emerging markets. Currency depreciates and inflation might act up.

As early as the beginning of 2021, inflation has started to climb in the Philippines. First quarter inflation averaged 4.5% compared to the official target of 2 to 4%.

While higher inflation remains supply driven, if second-round effects are triggered, and inflation expectations are disanchored, monetary policy will have to respond. This is the reason why monetary authorities should normally conserve their ammunition. Should interest rate adjustments become necessary, we would not have to do more. That could upset the real sector.

In reality, other factors may also be in operation. Rising term premium would reflect uncertainties about US’ future inflation, debt issuances and bond purchases. We can afford to wait because interest rates in the US and other AEs remain low. They are bound to climb as the recovery gains more traction. Market sentiment against emerging markets, specifically the Philippines, could gather momentum as vaccines remain elusive for massive, or even targeted, vaccination. Our failure in neutralizing the virus does not exactly inspire market confidence that would allow us to maintain monetary policy setting longer.

To reduce uncertainty, central banks in big economies should help by providing clearer guidance through transparent communication about future monetary policy. This important piece of information figures prominently in every central bank policy meeting. What happened in the Philippines in 2020 was consistent with the Fund’s analysis that “economies with more transparent central banks, more rules-based fiscal decision-making and higher credit ratings were able to cut their policy rates by more during the crisis.” Our monetary policy has been traditionally transparent and independent. Fiscal policy is not only responsible and transparent, but it also observes fiscal and debt sustainability metrics. Our credit rating is relatively high as we were about to reach at least an A- before the pandemic.

But we should not expect a zebra when we hear hoofbeats. The unseen virus has undermined most of our previous buffers during this pandemic.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Calvary 2021 

RESIDENTS of Batasan Hills in Quezon City line up to receive financial assistance from the government on the second day of distribution on April 8. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

Holy Week has come and gone in the Philippines, but whether Christian, Muslim, or non-believer, the Filipino’s Calvary is continuing and its torments multiplying.

Only for a few brief moments in this country’s troubled history has there been any respite from it. The defeat of Spanish colonial forces by the armies of the Republic by the end of the 19th century was one instance. But it was all too fleeting as the local gentry’s treachery and collaboration with US colonial interests frustrated the Revolution’s promise of national independence and social change.

Another was the overthrow of the Marcos terror regime in 1986, in the aftermath of which everything including the realization of those aspirations seemed possible. But that moment was equally brief, as the restoration of dynastic rule put an end to the EDSA promise of an Easter-like rebirth.

The country has since been ruled by incompetent and corrupt regimes dominated by the successors of the Spanish period principalia who have made the Philippines the most pathetic failure in Asia since it supposedly regained its independence. As a consequence of dynastic rule, the same injustice, misery, and uncertainty that defined the lives of their forebears still haunt the poorest 19% of the population and the millions more in danger of joining that ever growing legion because of a breadwinner’s illness, loss of employment, or death.

But as used to it as many presumably are, there is now every indication that the country has entered the worst leg so far of the Filipino Via Dolorosa.

The Philippines has once again overtaken Indonesia, a country with 200 million inhabitants, as the Southeast Asian country with the most numerous cases of COVID-19 during Year Two of the pandemic. It is now 14th in the world in the list of most affected countries. As of Wednesday, April 7, nearly 800,000 people across the archipelago had been afflicted with the virus as the rate of daily infections surged to 10,000-plus daily and with over 13,000 deaths.

As disturbing as those numbers already are, one study suggests that they may be even higher, since many cases and deaths go unreported, and given the tendency of the government to fudge the numbers and the usual flaws in the country’s statistics-gathering capacity.

The administration again blamed the victims and claimed that the surge in infections is due to the afflicted’s failure to follow health protocols. As if it were as infallible as the Pope, it won’t admit that a number of its own decisions, among them the reopening of cinemas, malls, and other public places as well as the easing of domestic and international tourism requirements at the urging of its economic bureaucrats were most responsible for boosting the daily infection rate from less than 2,000 last January to over 8,000 on March 29.

That Holy Monday, President Duterte again placed the National Capital Region (NCR) and the surrounding provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) lockdown until Easter Sunday on April 4, but extended it until the 11th. It is as if 12 long months had not passed since he put the country under the longest and most militarized lockdown on the planet last year. During his March 29 television address to the nation Mr. Duterte indeed said that the Philippines is “back to square one” despite his earlier claim, made through his spokesperson and other officials, that government response to the contagion has been “excellent.”

He was wrong on both counts. With the economy in recession; the inflation rate at an all-time high and rising; 4.4 million workers unemployed and their families destitute and hungry; the educational system in shambles; the country’s supplies of vaccines far, far below the 140 million doses (at two doses per person) needed for the 100 million-plus population to achieve herd immunity; and the slow-as-molasses, red tape-hampered administration of the limited vaccine doses available — with all these, the more accurate description of the country’s present state is that it is back to square zero, and it is because the regime response to the pandemic has been the exact opposite of excellent.

She waited for an entire year to say what has been obvious since Day One of the pandemic to anyone with any discernment, but even his political ally Imee Marcos pointed out two weeks ago that Mr. Duterte should have put doctors and public health experts in charge of the regime’s response to the COVID-19 threat rather than retired generals.

Ferdinand Marcos’ eldest daughter also noted the perplexing absence of logic and common sense behind a Department of Health (DoH)-instigated Executive Order she said Mr. Duterte was being made to issue that would have prevented the private sector — the country’s biggest corporations and chambers of commerce among others — from importing vaccines into the country despite their commitment to turn over to the government 50% of whatever vaccine doses they order.

But unreason, the absence of a national plan, the regime’s unexplained preference for Chinese vaccines to the virtual exclusion of vaccines from other sources, and the sheer incompetence of its bureaucrats are not the only characteristics of what passes for its response to the worst threat to the country and its long-suffering people since World War II. There is as well the same bureaucracy’s sense of entitlement and exceptionalism, and its abuse of power.

Previously mostly unremarked, for example, is the significance of the online news site Rappler’s finding that even in the administrative headquarters of a number of government agencies, the health protocols every citizen has to observe on pain of being fined and even arrested are not being followed by their bosses, some of whom have even held parties in their offices to celebrate such occasions as birthdays.

As a result of those infractions, a large percentage of the surge of infections in the capital is from some of the NCR offices of the very same government charged with containing the COVID-19 contagion. Perhaps as unaware of it as he sometimes is of even the contents of some of the documents he has signed (such as the Indemnity Fund Bill), or because he thinks his overpaid bureaucrats are entitled to do what they please, Mr. Duterte addressed this issue in the same way that he did his current police chief’s partying last year: he ignored it. Erring officials resign and are punished, and even kill themselves out of shame in other countries; in the Philippine regime of impunity, they’re promoted.

Not only during the pandemic has Mr. Duterte’s distressing watch been weighed, measured and found wanting. More than any of its predecessors, the regime has demonstrated how ineffectual and how far less capable of good governance is the Philippine power elite compared to those of other countries of Asia such as Singapore and Malaysia.

But while he might very well be amongst the worst if not the worst head of State this country has ever had, solely replacing him with someone else will not end the troubles Filipino flesh has been heir to for decades.

Dynastic rule is the cross the people of this country have long had to bear. Come 2022, together with the question of who will replace Mr. Duterte and his ilk, whether that someone will just be another member of the same political class responsible for the suffering and the terror-filled lives of the teeming millions or not will matter even more in ending, or at the very least, in mitigating, the Filipino Calvary. 

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Supporting a strong, inclusive, and sustainable recovery in ASEAN

TWO ISSUES will be critically important for ASEAN members to shape their recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic: strengthening regional cooperation and improving domestic resource mobilization.

First is the need to leverage stronger regional cooperation to enhance regional financial safety nets, deepen regional trade and supply chains, and build regional health security.

US interest rate hikes often drive capital outflows from emerging markets, which can trigger currency and financial volatility. At this stage of the pandemic, the additional policy supports and accelerated vaccine rollouts in advanced economies have improved their near-term recovery prospects. These economies could start policy normalization earlier than expected. Long-term interest rates in some advanced economies have already risen on positive outlooks and inflation concerns, rattling global financial markets.

A return to more normal interest rates could trigger another “taper tantrum” among Asia’s emerging markets, including those in ASEAN. To address this, we should reinforce regional financial safety nets such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization to cushion any possible spillovers from global shocks.

The pandemic has also shown how fragile global trade and supply chains can be. While I believe globalization will eventually return, it will take a different shape, requiring our renewed commitment to regional cooperation and integration by deepening regional trade and diversifying supply chains.

The reconfiguration of global supply chains offers ASEAN economies a great opportunity to establish themselves as reliable new suppliers and to attract investment. To enhance competitiveness, ASEAN economies should reduce behind-the-border bottlenecks such as nontariff barriers and restrictive regulations, continue improving trade logistics and efficiency, and promote paperless trade.

We also need to reduce health vulnerabilities and lift regional health security.

ADB supports the ASEAN Strategic Framework for Public Health Emergencies and the establishment of Regional Reserves for Medical Supplies — which will help the region better respond to future disease outbreaks and pandemics.

ADB will use its $9 billion Asia Pacific Vaccine Access Facility, or APVAX, to support ASEAN’s Vaccine Security and Self-Reliance. The region already has strong vaccine manufacturing capacities in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which can facilitate swift and fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines despite near-term global supply bottlenecks.

The second key issue is improving domestic resource mobilization. This will be indispensable as a foundation for lasting recovery. It can be achieved by strengthening tax systems and closing loopholes through international tax cooperation, deepening local currency bond markets, and catalyzing green finance.

The pandemic pushed many economies into fiscal deficits and higher debt, making domestic resource mobilization a top policy priority for sustained post-pandemic recovery.

The average 14% tax-to-GDP ratio in ASEAN is low compared to the average for developing Asia and the OECD, leaving room for improvement in boosting revenue generation and strengthening tax collection in ASEAN. Appropriate tax policy measures will be needed to strengthen the tax base and improve tax compliance once the region is on track to full recovery.

International tax cooperation can also help fight tax avoidance and evasion. The rise of the borderless digital economy makes it easier for multinationals to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions and exploit tax loopholes. With the increase in multinational investments in growing ASEAN markets, we need to ensure that all parties pay their fair share of taxes.

To date, six ASEAN countries — Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — are members of the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting, under which more than 130 developed and developing economies are collaborating closely to tackle the issue of tax avoidance. Eight ASEAN countries — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam — are members of the Global Forum, which is committed to the automatic exchange of information critical to combating tax evasion.

The second key measure to enhance domestic resource mobilization is to foster local currency bond markets. Local currency bond markets are an effective funding source for increased fiscal spending, while also providing central banks an additional avenue for injecting liquidity into markets and cash-strapped businesses to safeguard financial stability.

ASEAN’s local currency bond markets have expanded significantly over the past two decades. In particular, thematic bonds, such as green, social, and sustainability bonds can help finance green infrastructure and inclusive recovery. While they remain a small fraction of the total market size, thematic bonds outstanding increased six-fold since 2017. ADB is committed to working with ASEAN to reinforce this trend.

Finally, a green and innovative financing mechanism can help ASEAN countries to effectively mobilize financial resources and increase investment in quality, climate-resilient infrastructure.

The ASEAN Catalytic Green Financing Facility, or ACGF, under the Asian Infrastructure Fund, is owned by ASEAN countries together with ADB and receives administration support from ADB. Launched in 2019, ACGF aims at scaling up green projects in the region by mobilizing public and private resources. Through $1.4 billion in support from six partners including ADB, ACGF will make projects less risky by reducing the cost of equity and debt. By doing so, we make the projects more bankable and attractive for private investors.     

ACGF is not only a source of financing, but also of knowledge. Through ACGF, ADB is providing technical assistance to support Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines in issuing green, social, and sustainability bonds.

Stronger regional cooperation and more effective domestic resource mobilization will help ASEAN economies recover and rebuild for a greener and more resilient future. ADB is committed to supporting ASEAN in forging a strong, inclusive, and sustainable recovery.

 

Masatsugu Asakawa is President of the Asian Development Bank.

Trust me. You don’t want to be the biggest billionaire in China.

XB100-FREEPIK

IN CHINA, it’s good to be rich, but not too rich. Getting to the top of the billionaire rankings carries great risks. Just take a look at those who were once first among plutocrats. All got into trouble with Beijing — be they real estate developers or big tech bosses.

Wang Jianlin, founder of commercial real estate Dalian Wanda Group Co. Ltd. and China’s richest person as recently as 2016, was forced by the government to divest his overseas assets a year later when Beijing began a corporate deleveraging campaign in earnest. Hui Ka Yan, China’s richest in 2017, was asked to cut back on debt after his China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer, crossed the country’s new “three red lines.”

The best known billionaire made an example of by Beijing is, of course, Jack Ma, founder of Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. According to several news reports, President Xi Jinping personally pulled Ma’s $35-billion Ant Group initial public offering in early November, furious with the tech billionaire’s blunt criticism of China’s state-owned banks. Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s Pony Ma, who in recent years jostled with Jack for the No. 1 slot, has not been spared. He was recently called in by Beijing’s watchdogs to discuss antitrust compliance issues.

Conspicuous wealth attracts unwanted scrutiny. Beijing is wary of rich developers because they often load up on debt to fuel expansion, thereby putting corporate China’s financial health at risk. The government is just as watchful of Big Tech as it gets bigger. The ubiquity of Alibaba and Tencent in the economy raises the issue of their monopolistic powers, which can choke innovation but also pose systemic risks to Chinese society (that is, the supremacy of the Communist Party).

So, what are the smart ways for billionaires to retain their wealth but stay officially correct?  Here are three suggestions.

First, give to charity. If you have to be China’s richest, you should also be the country’s most philanthropic. Take Colin Huang, the founder of Pinduoduo, Inc., the e-commerce startup whose sharp stock rally propelled him to No. 4 in the rankings. In terms of active users, the six-year-old company has overtaken Alibaba as the most popular online shopping site.

Last summer, he donated a larger than 10% stake in Pinduoduo to charity and scientific research. That, combined with a 2.7% ownership transfer to an early investor, led to a more than $10 billion decrease in his net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index. It now stands at $46.3 billion, $16 billion away from Zhong Shanshan, chairman of bottled water company Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd., the current richest person in China. Huang recently stepped down as the company chairman to focus on “life sciences” research, which not only led to a slide in Pinduoduo’s shares but personally cost him another $4 billion. (All net wealth and ranking data quoted in this column are as of March 26, 2021 market close.)

I am not belittling Huang’s virtue, but moving down the rankings is important in officially socialist China — and philanthropy is a good way to exhibit one’s selflessness. It may also have blunted some of the criticism this year at the news of the death of two young employees. That ignited debates over long work hours at big tech companies. Pinduoduo is particularly hard-charging but you can’t be too critical of a person who gives his money and time away to medical science?

Huang, however, is no match for Evergrande’s Hui. In 2020, with 3 billion yuan in donations, Hui ranked as China’s most charitable person, the fourth year in a row, according to Jiemian, a news website. The billionaire was particularly proactive with the COVID-19 epidemic, remitting cash to Wuhan one day after its lockdown and donating millions of dollars to medical research. Hui knows how to calibrate his relationship with Beijing, having engaged in a delicate dance with the government over soaring home prices and his company’s debt-fueled growth.

Second, tinker with your share structure. As I’ve noted in the past, billionaire rankings around the world are heavily skewed by stock prices, while private wealth — such as an individual’s venture capital stakes — is practically ignored. As a result, big tech and green tech billionaires, such Amazon.com, Inc.’s Jeff Bezos and Tesla, Inc.’s Elon Musk, are now the world’s wealthiest. Chinese tech billionaires have to figure out how to contain the way their net worth soars when their company stocks rally in the market.

To do this, a dual-class share structure can come in handy. Tech entrepreneurs often use this strategy to retain control as their startups seek rounds of venture capital funding and later a public listing. But Chinese businessmen can use it to suppress their billionaire rankings too.

Let’s take a look at Pinduoduo’s Huang again. When he was still the chairman, his class B shares — which granted him 10 times the voting rights as class A shares — gave him 80% control in the company. In terms of “beneficial ownership,” he had only a 29% stake, because the two share classes have the same economic rights. The 29% stake is what the billionaire rankings look at when they estimate individual net worth. Put another way, if you are an aspiring Chinese unicorn founder on the cusp of a mega-IPO, it pays to have dual-class structure. You get to retain control but minimize the glaring large numbers that will attract Beijing’s eye.

Suggestion number three: Don’t be shy about setting up conglomerates. Evergrande’s Hui has a crown-jewel asset that is unaccounted for in his net worth. He owns over 70% of China Evergrande Group, which in turn holds over 70% of China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group. As part of the global green tech rally, his EV subsidiary’s market value has soared by over 1,000% in the last year to $76 billion, well above its parent’s $25-billion market cap.

Using rough estimates, if Hui’s net worth was based on the EV unit — assigning zero equity value to all his other businesses — he would be the fifth-richest person in China. However, in the billionaire rankings, Hui only gets credit for his stake in China Evergrande Group — and so he is about $20 billion poorer! Thanks to the conglomerate discount, he is now blissfully China’s 13th richest man, with a net worth of only $23 billion.

And what about China’s biggest billionaire? Shouldn’t the bottled water tycoon be nervous? First, Zhong isn’t in the volatile real estate and technology sectors. He’s also a do-gooder: Zhong has controlling stakes in a vaccine and hepatitis test-kit maker. Finally, if he decides being No. 1 isn’t for him, he can climb down the billionaire listings simply by parting with some of his 84% stake in the company. He won’t lose anything tangible. His wealth is an accounting matter. He can sleep easy.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Twitter launches ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ emoji as movement grows

BANGKOK – Social media giant Twitter on Thursday launched an emoji for the Milk Tea Alliance, a global online pro-democracy movement that has united anti-Beijing campaigners in Hong Kong and Taiwan with protesters in Thailand, Myanmar and beyond.

Activists welcomed the announcement of the emoji – a white cup set against a background of three colours representing different shades of milk tea in Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan – for the first anniversary of the movement.

The Milk Tea Alliance sprang from a Twitter war that flared after Chinese nationalists accused a young Thai actor and his girlfriend of supporting democracy in Hong Kong and Taiwanese independence.

It is named after a shared passion for sweet tea drinks in the three places.

Use of the hashtag peaked again in February after the military coup in Myanmar, where protesters using the hashtag rallied regional support.

“We have seen more than 11 million Tweets featuring the #MilkTeaAlliance hashtag over the past year,” Twitter said in an announcement that pushed the hashtag to among the top trending in Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan on Thursday.

Previously, Twitter launched emojis for #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter movements.

The Twitter emoji showed global recognition and lent greater credibility to the youth movement, said prominent Thai activist Netiwit Chotiphatphaisal, one of the alliance’s leading voices.

“It’s important as it shows the young people fighting for democracy that the world is with them and they’re making an impact,” Netiwit told Reuters. “It’s a sign that online activism can go much further.”

Twitter is blocked in China and its apparent endorsement of a movement with a strong current of opposition to Beijing was unlikely to hurt its business, said James Buchanan, a lecturer at Bangkok’s Mahidol University International College.

“Twitter has plenty to gain by appealing to young people in the Asian markets that are open to them,” he said. – Reuters

Singapore becomes a global cruise leader, for now

SINGAPORE – Singapore currently accounts for a third of the world’s cruises its tourism body said on Wednesday, owing to the roaring success of its “cruises to nowhere” at a time of crisis in the industry globally.

Cruises have yet to restart in many parts of the world after taking a beating from the coronavirus pandemic, with some of the earliest big outbreaks found on cruise ships.

The city-state launched what it called “round trips” on luxury liners in November, which have no port of call and last only a few days. Singapore has seen relatively few domestic COVID-19 cases since last year.

The Singapore cruises are open only to its 5.7 million residents, who have been unable to leave the tiny country for leisure and have settled instead for activities like staycations and even indoor camping.

The cruises recorded about 120,000 passengers, according to the Singapore Tourism Board, and run at lower capacity, with stringent health protocols.

The tourism board said it calculated its share of global cruises by using data from the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA).

Some cruises from the Caribbean are expected to resume from June while the U.S. Centers for Disease has retained tight curbs on resuming cruises from the United States.

Some cruises have operated in parts of Europe, Asia and the South Pacific, according to the Cruise Lines International Association.

Royal Caribbean said this month that it was extending the season in Singapore for its Quantum of the Seas ship due to “overwhelming demand” through October.

Genting Cruise Lines and Royal Caribbean launched their pilot cruises late last year.

STB Chief Executive Keith Tan said Singapore did not expect to be leading in cruises for long.

“Over the next few months, I certainly believe there will be more resumption of cruise business in the Caribbean, and in the Mediterranean as well,” Tan said.

Singapore’s tourism industry has been hit hard by the pandemic, with visitors dropping nearly 86% to 2.7 million last year. – Reuters

What you need to know about the coronavirus right now

April 8, 2021 – Here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus right now:

 

NZ temporarily suspends entry to travellers from India

New Zealand on Thursday temporarily suspended entry for all travellers from India, including its own citizens, for about two weeks following a high number of positive coronavirus cases arriving from the South Asian country.

The move comes after New Zealand recorded 23 new positive coronavirus cases at its border on Thursday, of which 17 were from India. The suspension will start from 1600 local time on April 11 and will be in place until April 28.

 

AstraZeneca rollout to continue in Australia

Australia has no current plans to change the rollout of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday, after Europe’s drug regulator found possible links between rare blood clots and the vaccine.

Australian authorities have ordered an urgent inquiry into findings from Europe’s drug regulator with Morrison expecting updates later on Thursday from the medicines regulator and the immunisation advisory group.

 

Mixed guidance in the EU on AstraZeneca shot

European Union health ministers failed on Wednesday to agree a common guidance on the use of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, despite calls for coordination across member states to combat public hesitancy over taking the shot.

Italy and Spain recommended on Wednesday that it only be used on those over 60 and Britain that people under 30 should get an alternative, due to possible links between the vaccine and very rare cases of blood clots.

 

If approved by EU, Germany wants to buy Sputnik vaccine

Germany is about to start bilateral negotiations with Russia to obtain its Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, a source told Reuters on Wednesday, adding that any final agreement depended on Russia providing key data to the European Medicines Agency (EMA). In the preliminary talks, Germany first wants to determine which quantities Russia can deliver and when, the source said.

In any case, Germany will only buy the Russian vaccine once it has been approved by EMA and for this it is paramount that Russia provides the necessary data, the source added.

 

After detecting UK variant, Thailand braces for infections

Thailand has detected at least 24 cases of the coronavirus variant B.1.1.7 first identified in Britain, a government health expert said on Wednesday, its first known domestic transmission of the highly contagious variant. The UK variant was found in a cluster of 24 visitors to entertainment venues in Bangkok, which were detected at the weekend. Nearly 200 such venues have been closed for two weeks.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha instructed authorities to prepare field hospitals in anticipation of a spike in infections. Ten of his ministers and dozens of lawmakers were self-isolating on Wednesday due to exposure to positive cases. – Reuters

Passive vaping: an impending threat to bystanders

Disclaimer: This asset – including all text, audio and imagery – is provided by The Conversation. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of, or endorse any views or opinions expressed in, this asset.

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), also known as vapes, are gaining popularity among youths in many parts of the world, including the US and Europe.

These young vapers are often unaware their e-cigarettes contain nicotine, an addictive substance that is also present in tobacco cigarettes.

Little do vapers know that their habit may also endanger non-vapers. Vapers may expose others to e-cigarette emissions.

Passive vaping, or secondhand exposure, is a condition where bystanders, usually non-vapers, are exposed to the exhaled aerosol from e-cigarette use.

Unlike passive smoking, which includes the smoke released from the end of the burning cigarette (side stream), passive vaping only comes from the exhaled e-cigarette aerosol since the device does not yield side stream.

Passive vaping is as concerning as passive smoking for at least two reasons.

1. E-cigarette aerosol from passive vaping contains dangerous toxins

Vaping aerosols do not only contain water vapour as commonly believed.

The toxins include, among others, fine and ultra-fine particles (also known as particulate matter), nicotine, volatile organic compounds like formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, as well as metals. The latter was found in e-cigarette aerosol at a higher level than in tobacco smoke.

Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde can cause cancer in humans . Nicotine may cause impaired brain function, especially in young people.

The particulate matter is smaller in e-cigarette aerosol than is found in cigarette smoke. This makes it easier for these particles to penetrate the lungs and induce diseases such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and diabetes.

Many studies show levels of particulate matter and nicotine increase in an indoor environment during and after vaping, suggesting it creates indoor pollution.

For example, in homes of e-cigarette users, the concentration of indoor airborne nicotine was more than six times higher than in non-users’ homes.

People who lived with vapers also absorbed the nicotine from the aerosol into their system.

Airborne nicotine and fine particulate matter from passive vaping may also contaminate other rooms or spaces as they can travel to neighbouring areas and outdoor environments.

The aerosol from passive vaping also contains other chemicals not present in regular cigarettes, such as propylene glycol and glycerol, which serve as the solvent in vape liquid, and flavourings.

Although propylene glycol and glycerol are considered safe for ingestion, they have not proved safe for inhalation.

Short-term exposure to e-cigarette aerosol has been shown to irritate eyes and airways and worsen respiratory conditions, such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, like chronic bronchitis.

This COVID-19 pandemic may put bystanders exposed to e-cigarettes at higher risk of contracting or having poor outcomes for COVID-19 since the aerosol may compromise lung function and immunity.

2. Passive vaping may endorse social acceptance of vaping and renormalise smoking

Studies found that youth seeing someone else vaping or exposed to the vaping aerosol were likely to initiate vaping or even smoking combustible cigarettes.

They even tend to perceive vaping or passive vaping as safe.

This raises concern about the gateway effect for non-smokers who may become smokers at a later stage or become dual users who vape and smoke.

The magnitude of passive vaping is not negligible. Exposure to e-cigarette aerosol has been pervasive, especially in countries where e-cigarette use is prevalent, like Greece and England .

In 2017-2018, 16% of adult bystanders in 12 European countries were exposed to e-cigarette aerosol in indoor settings.

In the US, passive vaping in indoor or outdoor public places was reported by nearly one in three middle and high-school students in 2018.

Indeed, passive vaping disproportionately affected youth, men and former vapers.

In Europe, passive vaping commonly occurred in places where smoking was already banned, including the indoor areas of bars, restaurants and workplaces or education facilities.

Vaping was even observed in locations where kids are likely around, such as children’s playgrounds and school gates.

To mitigate the negative impacts of passive vaping on bystanders, we must closely monitor the trend of passive vaping in the population, especially among vulnerable groups such as children and people with threatening diseases.

Policymakers should consider including vaping in smoke-free policies to simplify communication and implementation of the regulations.

The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control has advised countries to forbid vaping in enclosed spaces or at least in smoke-free places.

However, less than 60% of WHO European region countries had national laws on e-cigarette use by 2018.

This lack of regulation of e-cigarette aerosol occurs because European countries still focus more on other e-cigarette regulatory domains, such as marketing, retailing, pricing and product standards.

Fortunately, people are mainly in favour of vaping bans in public places, particularly in smoke-free areas. This implies an opportunity for authorities to adopt vaping regulations as part of the country’s tobacco control strategy.

2020 PHL GDP drop faster than initially estimated

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY in 2020 declined at a slightly faster pace than previously reported, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) — the value of all finished goods and services produced in the country at a given period in time — fell by 9.6% last year, inching up from the 9.5% drop initially reported on Jan. 28.

Meanwhile, GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 was unchanged at 8.3% from its initial estimate. — A. O. A. Tirona

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