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Holiday spending, vaccine rollout seen producing ‘robust’ recovery

THE HOLIDAY spending surge and rising optimism associated with the vaccine rollout will support a “robust” economic recovery, according to First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC) and the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) in a report released over the weekend.

In the December issue of its Market Call, FMIC and UA&P Capital Markets Research said it expects “a good economic recovery” next year as the economy reopens further and quarantine restrictions are relaxed, building on the momentum provided by holiday spending this month.

However, it warned that recovery “may not be fast enough for some” sectors.

“The further opening of the economy, the relaxation of lockdown restrictions due to the country’s winning stance against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) even without the expected rollout of vaccines and the usually ebullient Christmas season spending, provide the ingredients for a robust economic recovery,” it said.

The report cited the latest business expectations survey and consumer’s confidence index report of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) which showed firms and consumers becoming more optimistic this quarter, possibly carrying over intoh 2021.

The vaccine news has been positive lately, according to FMIC and UA&P Capital Markets Research, noting that in the Philippines, case rates are on a downtrend.

The Department of Finance (DoF), in an economic bulletin Sunday, said that “with a vaccine in sight, continuing the prudent, calibrated reopening of key sectors of the economy will be key to the recovery of the economy in general and trade in particular.”

The government should also proceed with its push to adopt policy reforms, boost infrastructure programs and attract more investments to further support recovery, it said.

FMIC and UA&P Capital Markets Research said the stronger-than-expected uptick in inflation to 3.3% in November is likely to be a one-off event caused by the destruction caused by the late-year typhoons and the resulting floods.

It maintained its inflation forecast for 2020 at 2.6% as “prices will revert to pre-typhoon days,” but expects the indicator to pick up to slightly higher levels next year.

This view of inflation is within the BSP’s inflation target of 2-4% for the year.

“Money growth continues to decelerate and this, together with inflation going back closer to 2% by January 2021, provides the BSP with more elbow room to cut policy rates by another 25 bps in Q1-2021 to provide a further boost to the domestic economy and lower borrowing costs of the national government,” it said. — Beatrice M. Laforga

DoE sees pickup in oil demand as transport sector opens further

DEPARTMENT of Energy (DoE) Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi said demand for oil products will be higher in 2021 as the transportation sector continues to open and as the economy recovers.

“Sa oil sector…magkakaroon iyon ng demand. Also, nagkakaroon tayo ng opening in the transportation sector where even the provincial buses are being allowed to operate (There will be demand in the oil sector. The transportation sector is opening up. Even provincial buses are being allowed to operate),” Mr. Cusi said at a briefing on Dec. 21.

Demand overall will also rise as the economy recovers, Mr. Cusi said.

He added that overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), including health workers and seafarers, will contribute to the recovery if the government increases deployment.

“Pag nag-deploy tayo (when we deploy workers)…then that will help in our economic recovery,” he said, noting that OFWs were not able to travel for work this year, adding to the weak demand for oil.

Asked for an outlook on power, Mr. Cusi said that the DoE is carrying on with building power capacity, noting that the current supply “barely” meets demand. “We have to make sure that we are ready, but we are already building up the supply. Hindi pwede ‘yung intermittent supply (It won’t do to have intermittent supply) during our economic recovery,” he said.

“I think as far as the power demand is concerned, there will be (a) surge when we fully open our economy and the energy family must be ready to meet that,” he added.

At the same briefing, Mr. Cusi said Petron Corp.’s closure of its Bataan oil refinery was a business decision.

The company announced this month that it would shutter its 180,000-barrel-per-day crude oil refinery, the country’s only remaining refinery. Mr. Cusi also said that the closure would not affect the fuel supply. — Angelica Y. Yang

Southeast Asian coal demand doubles in past decade — IEA

COAL demand in Southeast Asia doubled in the past decade led by Indonesia, with Philippine consumption fourth, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Vietnam, followed by Malaysia and the Philippines. In 2019, demand in Southeast Asia was 332 MT (million tons), of which 42% was accounted for by Indonesia and 27% by Vietnam,” the IEA said in a report.

According to IEA data, the Philippines used 250 MT in the past decade. In 2019, coal consumption was 30 MT. The Philippines’ coal-fired power plant capacity was 9.6 gigawatts (GW) last year, making the power industry by far the largest user of coal.

According to the Department of Energy (DoE), the Philippines consumed around 33 MT of coal last year.

This year, however, coal demand in the Philippines will fall “for the first time in several years due to the global health emergency, the IEA said.

The IEA’s report on coal, published on Dec. 18, projected that overall coal demand in Southeast Asia will rebound 7% next year as economies recover.

In Indonesia, which consumed 1,001 MT of coal in the past decade, demand is expected to rise after Jakarta ruled that coal producers investing in downstream operations will receive a waiver on royalties, the IEA said.

The IEA said global demand for coal in 2020 will register the “largest drop since the Second World War, falling 5% from its 2019 levels.”

“Coal’s decline is only slightly sharper in power generation than in industrial applications. Except for China, industrial output has been severely subdued by the COVID-19 crisis,” the IEA said.

The European Union (EU) and the US logged a 19% increase and 14% decrease, respectively, in coal-fired power generation. Consumption increased 1.2% in the Asia Pacific region this year, the IEA reported.

It added that by 2025, global coal demand is projected to “flatten out” at 7.4 billion tons, but Southeast Asia will surpass the US and EU to become the third-largest coal-consuming region.

Two months earlier, the Department of Energy (DoE) announced a moratorium on new coal-fired power plant projects, following a recent assessment which showed the need to shift to a “more flexible” power supply mix.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) said in a November report that around 10GW of greenfield coal plants will be affected by the DoE’s ban.

However, a report by non-government organization Clean Air Asia estimated that power generating capacity from coal-run plants is expected to rise by 135% as soon as the plants which are currently being built became operational. — Angelica Y. Yang

The geopolitical outlook in 2021

As the world continues to grapple with the pandemic, global political risk hit a multi-year high and is expected to persist in 2021. The performance of markets and companies will be impacted by events and conditions due to a combination of pandemic-related issues, climate change, trade tensions, political transitions and other factors. Without question, the top risk is COVID-19.

Pandemics are inherently geopolitical, involving issues such as global leadership, international cooperation and competition, and national security. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a political-risk event on an unprecedented global scale as well as a public health crisis, influencing all the top 10 risks identified by the EY Geostrategic Business group in a recent report, the EY 2021 Geostrategic Outlook.

In addition to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the report discusses the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, the disentangling of US-China interdependence, European strategic autonomy, and the rise of neo-statism. Also identified are reinvigorated climate policy agendas, the geopolitics of technology and data, US policy realignment, the tipping point for emerging market debt and another wave of social unrest.

Furthermore, COVID-19 will continue to generate high levels of uncertainty as governments continue to rapidly develop pandemic response policies and innovate in real time. This uncertainty will challenge strategy development and execution, making it even more crucial for companies to dynamically monitor political risks for challenges as well as opportunities in the coming year.

POLITICAL RISKS IN 2021
Export controls, vaccine nationalism, domestic political consequences and restrictions on cross-border people movement will generate political risks in markets worldwide. This underscores the need to re-evaluate talent decisions, supply chains, and approaches towards building enterprise resilience. We should also anticipate that the geopolitics of data and technology will come to the fore, given that each country has different approaches to data privacy, technological standards, digital taxation efforts and antitrust enforcement. Companies with cross-border operations will increasingly need to evaluate how the standards in one of their markets will interact with the standards in the other markets within which they operate.

Significant trends in regulatory and policy changes will see the world entering an era of neo-statism. Neo-statism refers to state-controlled competition where the state takes on a more active role and may even intervene in driving certain industries within its economy. As the pandemic intensifies the focus on self-reliance, several countries may start to diversify supply chains or re-shore manufacturing, with governments deploying policy tools to not only support domestic production, but also take measures to make their chosen industries inherently more competitive.

With more countries announcing their carbon neutrality targets, ambitious climate policy agendas are also likely to be part of COVID-19 stimulus plans, particularly in light of the upcoming 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November.

Also coming into play are power politics among the EU, China and the US. The European Union (EU) will utilize its investment, industrial and trade policies as well as its ability to shape global standards to progress towards strategic autonomy. On the other hand, China and the US will continue to try disentangling their strategic interdependence amid their trade relationship, rival industrial policies, technological competition and friction regarding Chinese sovereignty.

President-elect Biden has also declared his incoming administration’s focus on environmental and industrial policies, with volatility likely in the areas of anti-trust, immigration and trade. Companies could expect production and supply chains in strategic sectors to shift more towards the US economy, while green industries will see expanded investment and growth opportunities.

Meanwhile, the global competition in the Indo-Pacific will likely cause more geopolitical instability. This is evinced by recent tensions between China and India, as well as Australia and China, with middle and major powers becoming more assertive in shaping geopolitics while balancing between US and China. Government interventions will also affect investment and growth strategies, while maritime policies may reconfigure global supply chains.

Moreover, emerging market debt may hit a tipping point in 2021, with funding vulnerabilities expected to be highest in large emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Mexico and South Africa. Key markets growth prospects may suffer as tax and financial burdens rise among companies. Despite international efforts at debt relief, debt resolution will likely to be complicated by geopolitical dynamics and COVID-19.

Finally, a potential wave of social unrest in the form of protests may bring more disruptions to business operations. Five primary issues likely to motivate protestors in 2021 include social justice, climate change, inequality, pandemic restrictions and governance issues. Heightened stakeholder expectations could also magnify reputational risks for companies.

MANAGING RISKS THROUGH GEOSTRATEGIC PRIORITIES
While the geostrategic considerations differ for each specific political risk, there are five overarching actions that business leaders may consider to manage such risks in 2021.

1. Actively monitor your company’s political risk environment. Make political risks part of the company’s risk radar and dynamically monitor them throughout the year. The debt situation in some large emerging markets and the US policy realignment will require constant monitoring as the year progresses.

2. Conduct in-depth and real-time assessments of identified risks. Model the impact of potential political risk events across key business functions such as supply chain, revenue, data and intellectual property, as well as regularly monitor the potential effects of evolving US-China relations. Moreover, the geopolitics of technology and data likewise warrant close assessment.

3. Create a culture of political risk management across the company. Too often, the identification, assessment, and management of political risk is siloed within various business functions, as revealed in the EY Geostrategy in Practice 2020 survey of global executives. Companies should establish cross-functional teams that will leverage on the lessons learned from ongoing COVID-19 crisis management. This fosters better communication and management of political risks arising from the pandemic and will build greater agility in company operations.

4. Engage your stakeholders in political risk management. Political intervention and public opinion will continue to target companies on a variety of issues, upon which companies must proactively engage their stakeholders. By leveraging on relationships with policymakers, employees, customers, non-governmental organizations, community groups, and other stakeholders, companies can potentially turn challenges from political risks into opportunities.

5. Make political risk analysis integral to strategic decisions. Scenario analyses about political risks can be used to quantify and capture the uncertainty associated with their trajectories in the coming years. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come.

THE NEED FOR A GEOSTRATEGY
The New Normal may have started in 2020, but it is poised to become even more disruptive in 2021, with the medium and long-term effects of the pandemic becoming more visible. It would therefore be advisable for companies to develop their own geostrategy — one that can help the business integrate political risk management into its operations, as well as into its broader risk management, governance and strategic analyses.

Let us look to 2021 with renewed strength, depth of purpose, and clarity of insight as we work to unmask the difficulties brought about by the disruptions happening now, focus on the work to be done Next in order to recover, and keep our eyes on the vision of building and restoring long-term value to our businesses in the world beyond the pandemic.

Allow me to take this opportunity to thank the readers of Suits the C-Suite, a thought leadership column regularly published by SGV & Co. since 2009. On behalf of our partners, principals and staff who have contributed to this column, I wish you all a New Year filled with hope and peace.

This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.

 

Wilson P. Tan is the Country Managing Partner of SGV & Co.

Tatum: NBA sees players like Sotto further shoring up league’s growth

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo, Senior Reporter

ALREADY one of the biggest sports brands in the world, the National Basketball Association (NBA) knows there is always room for growth and it was happy to share that it is going in that direction, aided, among others, by the growing number of international talent joining its family.

In a global media conference call last week, NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum said there is no denying how international influence has done wonders for The Association in becoming the league it is today.

And it is set to continue with players like Kai Sotto of the Philippines choosing to continue to develop their game through the NBA.

“We see incredible excitement in the Philippines as a result of Kai Sotto’s involvement with Team Ignite,” said Mr. Tatum of Mr. Sotto, who is playing for Team Ignite in the NBA G League.

“What we see is continued unprecedented interest in the game in the Philippines and other parts of the world. Players like Kai, who grew up in our Jr. NBA program and is now playing in the G League, that will [spur] development of players coming from around the rest of the world,” the NBA executive added.

Mr. Sotto is among the players of champion NBA player and coach Brian Shaw at Team Ignite.

The team is composed of standout talents from different parts of the world under a program designed to develop young players and, hopefully, prepare them for the NBA Draft and provide them with professional life skills that they could use in and out of the court.

Mr. Sotto is joined in the team by Filipino-American Jalen Green, among the top prospects in next year’s draft, as well as Princepal Singh, an NBA Academy graduate from India.

“We are continuing to invest at the grassroots level in Jr. NBA programs around the world, in Basketball School programs around the world, and then NBA Academies in certain parts of the world continue that process of developing elite talent that will eventually play in our league,” said Mr. Tatum in describing one of the ways they are tapping to fortify the league.

As the NBA rolled out its 2020-21 season last week, 107 international players from 41 countries were part of opening-night rosters.

It marked the seventh consecutive season that opening-night rosters featured at least 100 international players.

All 30 teams have at least one international player.

Canada (17 players) is the most-represented country outside of the United States, followed by France (nine players), Australia (eight players), Serbia and Germany (six players each).

The Washington Wizards have an NBA-high seven international players. The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets each have six, while the New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder and Toronto Raptors each have five.

There are also a number of American players with ties to other countries, including more than 30 players with at least one parent from Africa. Among the American players with ties to other countries are Jordan Clarkson (Utah Jazz; ties to the Philippines), Victor Oladipo (Indiana Pacers; ties to Nigeria), Matisse Thybulle (Philadelphia 76ers; ties to Australia and Haiti), and Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves; ties to the Dominican Republic).

BEING READY
Meanwhile, Mr. Tatum also took time to discuss the uncertain times with the coronavirus pandemic and how they are being ready for any eventuality.

“We’re obviously very closely monitoring the situation with the pandemic here in the United States and in our cities. We feel very confident in our protocols, in working with our medical experts, public health officials, the Players Association, and our teams that we have the sort of protocols that will keep us safe and healthy,” he said.

Adding, “There’s going to be a level of uncertainty here, and we’re managing through that and we’re monitoring it every single day. We need to remain flexible, and we understand that.”

One of the ways they are going about it, Mr. Tatum said, is managing the season schedule.

They released the schedule only for the first half of the season last Dec. 22, recognizing the flexibility needed to adjust to situations that lie ahead, and is set to release the schedule for the second half on March 4.

Russell, Timberwolves hang on to spoil Jazz’ home opener

D’ANGELO Russell scored 25 points, including three key free throws in the final seconds, to lead the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves to a 116-111 victory over the Utah Jazz on Saturday night in Salt Lake City.

Malik Beasley and rookie Anthony Edwards each scored 18, while Karl-Anthony Towns contributed 16 points, 12 rebounds, and four blocked shots as Minnesota won its first road game after opening the season with a home win over Detroit.

The Timberwolves led by as many as 17, but needed to play a full 48 minutes to escape Utah with a win.

Russell left the door open with 4.2 seconds remaining after hitting just 1 of 2 free throws to give Minnesota a three-point lead. Utah hauled in the rebound and, after a time out to advance the ball, Bojan Bogdanovic was called for a five-second penalty after not being able to find an open teammate on the inbound pass.

Russell then hit two free throws with 3.3 seconds left.

It was the first loss of the season for the Jazz in their home debut.

Jordan Clarkson led Utah with 23 points, but the Jazz shot only 38.3% and were hurt by rough shooting nights by Donovan Mitchell and Bogdanovic. Mitchell heated up late, hitting back-to-back 3-pointers as Utah rallied, but the All-Star hits only 6 of 23 shots for 21 points. Bogdanovic scored nine on 3-of-16 shooting.

Mike Conley scored 20 points for Utah, which won big at Portland on Wednesday. Rudy Gobert, fresh off signing a $205-million contract extension, finished with 18 points and 17 rebounds.

Naz Reid hit a 3-pointer with 2:34 remaining in the third to put the Timberwolves up 86-69, matching the visitors’ biggest lead of 17.

Former Jazz guard Ricky Rubio, a fan favorite while in Utah from 2017-19, scored nine points with six assists off the bench for Minnesota.

The Timberwolves were hot from beyond the arc, hitting 13 of 29. Utah cooled down after hitting 19 of 50 3-pointers in a season-opening win at Portland by shooting 10-for-34 from deep.

The Jazz were allowed to have 1,500 fans in the stands for their home-opener.

The Timberwolves outscored the Jazz 31-27 in the first quarter and then surged into the locker room ahead 68-53 after a 24-12 push. — Reuters

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rout Detroit Lions, clinch first playoff berth since 2007

TOM BRADY threw four first-half touchdown passes and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched a playoff berth by pounding the host Detroit Lions 47-7 on Saturday.

The Buccaneers (10-5) qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2007. Brady completed 22 of 27 passes for 348 yards despite sitting out the entire second half. Backup Blaine Gabbert threw two touchdown passes.

Mike Evans caught 10 passes for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and Chris Godwin had five receptions for 84 yards and a score. Tight end Rob Gronkowski scored on both of his receptions.

Jamal Agnew scored on a punt return for the Lions (5-10). Detroit’s starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford, injured his ankle in the first quarter and did not return. The Lions have lost seven of their last nine games.

Tampa Bay raced to a 34-0 halftime lead, scoring touchdowns on five of its first six possessions.

Brady connected with Gronkowski, who beat one-on-one coverage, from 33 yards out for the first score. The extra point was missed.

The Bucs needed only four plays to drive 80 yards on their next possession. Brady’s 47-yard hookup with Godwin set up his 27-yard scoring strike to Evans.

Leonard Fournette ran 4 yards up the middle for Tampa Bay’s third touchdown.

Later in the second quarter, the Bucs drove 91 yards in seven plays. Brady connected with Godwin, made a leaping grab in the end zone, from 7 yards out to complete that drive.

A nine-play drive finished off the Bucs’ big first half. Brady’s fourth touchdown pass of the game was snared by Antonio Brown, who scored from 12 yards out.

Lions rookie running back D’Andre Swift fumbled on the first play from scrimmage in the second half. Gabbert threw a 25-yard scoring pass to Gronkowski on the next play. Ryan Succop missed another extra point, leaving the score at 40-0.

The Lions finally got on the board when Agnew returned a Bradley Pinion punt 74 yards with 9:38 remaining in the third quarter.

Gabbert threw a 22-yard scoring pass to Evans midway through the quarter. — Reuters

Holcim Philippines taps Vera for ‘Built to Excel’ campaign

RECOGNIZING their common push for excellence, Holcim Philippines, Inc. recently tapped mixed martial arts (MMA) champion Brandon “The Truth” Vera for its newest campaign — “Built to Excel.”

As Holcim’s latest brand ambassador, Mr. Vera, the reigning ONE Championship world heavyweight champion, will help highlight Holcim Excel, the company’s flagship general purpose cement brand, which is set to celebrate its 20th year in 2021.

The company, along with Mr. Vera and ONE Championship, has lined up activities over social media for the campaign. It has also produced materials for its trade partners nationwide.

“We are excited to work with ONE Championship and Brandon. Aside from tapping into their growing fan base, which aligns with our own customers, we decided to continue this partnership due to shared values with them,” said Holcim Philippines President and CEO John Stull in a press release of their latest tie-up.

“Our Holcim Excel brand is set to reach its 20th year in 2021. During this period, billions of bags of this product have been used by our partners to build important structures all over the country. It’s a testament to the trust it has built in delivering excellent performance. We believe that Brandon embodies what Holcim Excel means to our partners and thrilled to have him for this campaign,” he added.

Mr. Vera, who has been ONE champion since 2015 and has had two successful title defenses to date, welcomed being part of the Holcim family built on “excellence.”

“Many thanks to Holcim for trusting me to be the face of their brand. I am honored to have been chosen by a company who is known in its industry for products that stand out for their excellent performance, strength, and durability,” said Mr. Vera, who is a veteran MMA fighter with a record of 16-8.

The partnership between Holcim and ONE Championship dates back to the launch of the former’s road and infrastructure cement Holcim Solido in 2019 with ONE helping generate interest in the product through engagements and activities at the promotion’s “Roots of Honor” event fight also on that year. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

49ers hand Cardinals costly defeat

C.J. BEATHARD threw two touchdown passes to Kyle Juszczyk, Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-best 183 yards and Ahkello Witherspoon thwarted a late Arizona Cardinals threat with an end-zone interception Saturday afternoon, lifting the visiting San Francisco 49ers to a 20-12 victory in Glendale, Arizona.

The loss was a costly one for the Cardinals (8-7), who with a third consecutive victory could have earned a wild-card playoff berth by winning their last two games. Instead, now the Chicago Bears (7-7) can eliminate Arizona by winning their last two, including Sunday at Jacksonville.

Juszczyk’s touchdown catches covered 9 yards in the third quarter and 1 yard in the fourth, allowing the 49ers (6-9), who snapped a three-game losing streak, to extend a 7-6 halftime edge.

When Robbie Gould missed right on his point-after attempt following Juszczyk’s second score with 8:36 remaining, the Cardinals needed a touchdown and two-point conversion to tie.

Murray drove Arizona to the San Francisco at 14, but his floater intended for Christian Kirk was picked off by Witherspoon.

Arizona got the ball back one more time after Gould missed his second field goal attempt of the day, a 37-yarder with 1:09 remaining. But the Cardinals couldn’t get out of their own territory as Murray finished a 31-for-50, 247-yard, touchdown-less game.

Starting in place of injured Raheem Mostert, Wilson rushed 22 times and hauled in Beathard’s first of three touchdown passes, a 21-yarder in the first quarter.

Beathard, San Francisco’s third-stringer getting an opportunity with both Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullens out, went 13-for-22 passing for 182 yards and the three scores.

DeAndre Hopkins was the game’s top pass-catcher with eight for 48 yards, while teammate Kirk went for a team-high 76 yards on seven catches.

Kenyan Drake scored Arizona’s only touchdown on a 1-yard plunge with 12:08 left in the game, but a two-point conversion pass from Murray to Hopkins went incomplete, leaving the Cardinals two points behind at 14-12.

George Kittle, returning to the San Francisco lineup after suffering a broken foot in Week 8, had a game-high 92 receiving yards on four receptions.

Arizona’s Mike Nugent sandwiched Wilson’s touchdown with a pair of field goals — from 27 and 43 yards — to keep the Cardinals with 7-6 at halftime. — Reuters

Arsenal stops rot by beating Chelsea, Everton moves second

MANCHESTER — Arsenal ended their seven match winless run in the Premier League with a surprise 3-1 London derby victory over Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday while Manchester United were held to a 2-2 draw at Leicester City.

Everton moved into second spot with a late winner in a 1-0 defeat of bottom club Sheffield United, while Manchester City moved fifth thanks to a 2-0 win over Newcastle United.

Manchester United, who had won their last 10 away games in the Premier League, dropped to fourth on 27 points, with third-placed Leicester on 28 and a resurgent Everton on 29.

Leaders Liverpool (31) can extend their lead when they face West Bromwich Albion on Sunday.

Chelsea’s third defeat in four games drops them to seventh, behind Aston Villa on goal difference after Dean Smith’s side beat Crystal Palace 3-0.

Under pressure Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta’s troubles looked to have increased with several regulars ruled out for the visit of a Chelsea side that could have gone second with a win.

But the Gunners took the lead in the 35th minute through an Alexandre Lacazette penalty after Kieran Tierney was adjudged to have been clipped in the box by Reece James.

Nine minutes later, Granit Xhaka’s unstoppable freekick past Édouard Mendy made it 2-0.

Visibly frustrated Chelsea coach Frank Lampard replaced out-of-form Germany striker Timo Werner with winger Callum Hudson-Odoi and Mateo Kovacic with Jorginho at halftime, but Arsenal sealed a timely win in the 56th minute when Bukayo Saka’s cross floated over Mendy and the ball went in off the post.

Tammy Abraham grabbed a late consolation from a Hudson-Odoi cross and Chelsea could have scared Arsenal further if Jorginho had not had a 90th-minute penalty saved by Bernd Leno.

“That shows you that we’re able to do it when we’re at our best. Can we do it every three days? That’s the question mark we need to respond in the next weeks or so,” Arteta, whose side are in 14th spot, told reporters.

Marcus Rashford put United ahead in the 23rd minute with a cool finish after being slipped in by Bruno Fernandes, but Harvey Barnes equalized eight minutes later from the edge of the box.

Fernandes restored United’s lead in the 79th minute, drilling into the bottom corner after being found inside the area by substitute Edinson Cavani.

Again though, the lead was short-lived as Vardy’s first time shot on the half-turn from a low cross from Ayoze Perez, deflected off United defender Axel Tuanzebe.

“One point is not the worst result but we’re disappointed to not get the three points against a tough side,” United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær said.

Aston Villa made light of playing half the match with 10 men to thrash Crystal Palace (3-0).

Bertrand Traore put an impressive Villa side ahead early on, but the hosts had Tyrone Mings dismissed shortly before the break after picking up a second yellow card.

It made little difference as they outplayed Palace in the second half with Kortney Hause heading in from close range to double their lead in the 66th minute and Anwar El Ghazi’s rasping finish 10 minutes later wrapping up the points.

Everton left it late with Gylfi Sigurdsson’s 80th-minute goal earning them the points at Sheffield United.

Goals in each half from Ilkay Gundogan and Ferran Torres allowed Manchester City to cruise past Newcastle.

City have kept their 13th clean sheet of the campaign, more than any other team within the top five European leagues this season. They travel to second-placed Everton on Monday.

Southampton were left frustrated by a 0-0 draw at Fulham as James Ward-Prowse hit the woodwork with a 26th minute freekick and both Shane Long and Theo Walcott had efforts ruled out.

Fulham remain in the relegation zone, on 11 points in 18th place, while Southampton are ninth on 25 points. — Reuters

Dominant Brady

When the Buccaneers went after Tom Brady in the offseason, they were dead set on breaking the second-longest playoff drought in the National Football League (NFL). They understood the risks; even as they knew the pluses of getting arguably the best player in history, they acknowledged that he was likewise all of 43 and on the downside of a long pro journey. And it was precisely his extraordinary body of work that made him a question mark moving forward; with 20 extended seasons’ worth of pounding compelling the Patriots to part ways with him, how much more of a beating could he still take?

For the Buccaneers, the answer had been varying from week to week. For a while there, it even looked as if they had to temper their expectations from doing battle for the division crown to simply getting a wild card slot. Then something happened: Brady happened. They began to win with more consistency anew after an atrocious November that had them being shellacked by the rival Saints and absorbing two more setbacks over the next three contests. Yesterday’s triumph over the Lions both presented their potential and represented their ceiling; everything clicked, and their acquisition at center couldn’t have been better.

How dominant was Brady in his latest outing? Consider this: He led five touchdown drives, four off his passes, in going 22 of 27 for a whopping 348 yards in the first half. No, it’s not a typo. And, yes, it had the Buccaneers up by so much — 34-0, to be precise — at the break that he didn’t need to get back on the field anymore. So good were his numbers that they were just the second set to surpass 240 yards and four touchdowns in a half through the last four decades. The first was, of course, his as well; in 2009, he went for 345 and five.

Always with a flair for the dramatic, Brady went for the record books on the 300th game of his NFL career, which just so happened to begin in the same state 20 years ago. That said, he’s not done — and, if he’s to be believed, nowhere near to being done; he’s angling to play even after he turns 45, and until he can’t. First things first, though, and, for the Buccaneers, it means moving up the standings to secure a better postseason seed. Up next: the dangerous Falcons, who had them on the ropes last week before he managed to engineer a second-half comeback.

As foolhardy as it may be to draw conclusions from a small sample size, the Buccaneers can’t help but be buoyed by Brady’s showing. For all the pitfalls of decency bias, it’s fair to argue that they’re trending in the right direction. Whether or not the pieces are finally falling into place remains to be seen, but there’s no denying the strides they made in any case.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

2021: A better new normal?

Bill Gates says “there is good news coming in 2021.”  But that’s not for the whole world. Perhaps there’s optimism in America, with Donald Trump exiting and a mass vaccination program being set in motion. Mr. Gates acknowledges that the decline in infections and deaths will happen “at least in wealthy countries.”

Sadly for the Philippines, we are far from normalcy, much less from a better new normal.

Consider the following:

1. The world rejoices over the introduction of several vaccines, but the Philippines will not immediately benefit from them. According to Health Secretary Francisco Duque III, the best scenario is having the vaccination started in the second quarter of 2021. But the first best is wishful thinking. In reality, the second best is what works. (In economics, the “first best” is but an abstraction that gets supplanted by the second or third best in practice. Countries with weak institutions like the Philippines settle for the third or fourth best.)

It does not help that “someone dropped the ball.” Officialdom’s incompetency and the systemic mess that impaired the country’s response to COVID-19 presage how the administration will handle the vaccination program.

Further, the logistical and financial requirements for mass vaccination are huge. The budget allocation for vaccination in 2021 is deficient. The health workers have to be first trained on the vaccine protocols. Storage facilities have to be set up or upgraded. Social preparation is necessary, and the people have to be informed about the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. It remains disturbing that a Social Weather Stations’ (SWS) September 2020 survey showed that a third of Filipinos are unwilling to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

And so, even with the availability of the scarce vaccine, we really have no choice but dance with the virus. The consolation we get — thanks but no thanks — is some form of aliw (entertainment) from the overexcited singing of the hyper-salivating presidential spokesperson.

2. Arguably, on the economic front, the worst is over. The economy has reached rock bottom.

The economic decline is steep — with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falling by 16.9% in the second quarter of 2020 and 11.9% in the third quarter. For the whole year, we can expect the economy to have contracted by around 10%.

This is far worse than the recession during the twilight years of the Marcos dictatorship. The difference? Marcos had no credible scapegoat (even as some apologists blamed Imelda for the profligacy), while Duterte can point the finger at coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

But the “worst being over” should not translate into optimism. In the fourth quarter survey of SWS, only 16% of Filipinos said they were not poor, and 30% thought their quality of life would worsen in 2021 (compared to 32% who expected an improvement).

Furthermore, in the longer-term, the economic picture is not so bright. The Philippine scarring is so deep that the economy will suffer from chronic effects. The consultancy Oxford Economics (and cited by The Economist) has announced its research and modeling, showing which countries are most vulnerable to long-term economic scarring and which countries are likely to recover soonest.

To quote  (Dec. 15, 2020): “Yet the distinction between emerging and advanced economies masks large variations: the Philippines and India have especially bleak growth outlooks, whereas China and Brazil are expected to perform better. The Philippines ranked worst overall in the study largely because of its labor market, with high unemployment and skills shortages, and the economy’s dependence on tourism.”

3. By now, the economic authorities can no longer rely on the economic reforms and gains that happened before the pandemic broke out. Surely, the policy reforms, especially on taxation, are assets for recovery. They exhibit credibility and creditworthiness. But a better new normal entails a new set of challenges and a new generation of reforms.

But it seems that the momentum for reforms has recently lost steam. Proof of this is the stalling of the bill that seeks to rationalize fiscal incentives and make corporate income tax responsive to the stimulus in the short run and competitive in the long run. The bill titled CREATE (Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises) has always been a priority. The Executive long ago certified its urgency.

Yet, its passage has been delayed several times. Some have even packaged the passing of CREATE as an early Christmas gift. The year is ending, and there is no word when the bicameral conference committee will meet to approve CREATE.

What is apparent is that CREATE has been held hostage by politicians and vested interests. And while Congress disrupted CREATE, the Philippine Senate had the compulsion to speed up, nay, railroad, the granting of unnecessary fiscal incentives — contrary to the spirit of CREATE — to the San Miguel Aerocity. The Executive so far has been silent on this.

Does this signal the start of a lame-duck presidency? This can make vested interests happy, but this can likewise abet investors’ uncertainty.

2021 will thus be bumpy, unpredictable, and risky. Take note that we haven’t figured into our discussion the intensifying political conflicts and human rights abuses.

I nevertheless greet everyone a safe and healthy 2021, and pray that we be caring to our people.

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph

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