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Challenger mindset

A Tamaraw unit is inspected at TMP’s conversion factory in Santa Rosa, Laguna. — PHOTO BY KAP MACEDA AGUILA

For TMP, it’s all hands on deck with the Tamaraw

AS 2024 DRAWS to a close, Toyota Motor Philippines Corp. (TMP) is set to add yet another feather in its cap with an incredible 23rd consecutive “triple crown” — leading all auto companies here in passenger, commercial, and total vehicle sales. Yes, that’s 23 straight years of market leadership.

So imagine my incredulity upon hearing TMP President Masando Hashimoto describe the company as being a challenger in the commercial vehicle segment where the recently launched all-new Tamaraw will wage battle. Clearly, despite its legacy name, TMP is not taking any chances on the Tamaraw.

Mr. Hashimoto first voiced this sentiment shortly following the Tamaraw’s ceremonial roll-off at TMP’s massive Santa Rosa facility in Laguna. “After 2004, we stopped the commercial vehicle line (of the Tamaraw). This market is (now) dominated by Mitsubishi and Hyundai and we are quite behind. We are now the challenger,” he told reporters. “We need to develop again the image of Toyota in this specific category. In passenger cars, we have no problem, we are very confident. But this (utility vehicle space) is really a big challenge.”

At the press conference on the day of the recent (and impressive) eight-location public launch of the model, he reiterated this view, replying to my question thus: “We will do our maximum effort; we will try our best to catch again the (companies) in this area. That’s our promise to this project.”

And while the executive acknowledged the work to be done, TMP is already setting a high bar in sales expectations. Mr. Hashimoto said the company is eyeing to move 1,500 to 1,800 units a month — figures that approximate the production output of the newly established, P1.1-billion “conversion factory” in Santa Rosa which will churn out the basic iterations of the flexible workhorse.

Of course, having available units is one thing, being able to sell them is an entirely different matter. While this was touched upon during the launch program, I prodded TMP brass for more details on how it will leverage its massive ecosystem to give the model all the help it needs to be accessible to more people.

“We believe that this model isn’t just the return of the legacy name. It’s been a well-loved product among Filipinos… As I said in my speech, this is a car for the livelihood of many people — in the commercial area, in the agricultural area, in the industry. Those people should be able to access this car. One of the keys is affordability or ease of finance. Our value chain or the dealer network is a strong key to deliver in those areas,” stated Mr. Hashimoto.

I also asked Toyota Mobility Solutions Philippines, Inc. (TMSPH) President and CEO Tini Arevalo if the Tamaraw will be made available for leasing. “Maybe the basic models that are most in demand,” she replied. “The very unique conversion types will have to be purchased because they’re very specific to individual preferences. Kinto, our full-service operating lease package, is available for both business and individual customers. If people want to be asset-light and they don’t want to spend on capital too much for vehicle purchases, Kinto is a very good option, and we’re open to accept reservations.”

Meanwhile, Toyota Financial Services Philippines Corp. (TFSPH) President and Director Rommel Ocampo shared, “We’re offering our Pangkabuhayan on Wheels program for MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises), especially for micro. It’s a crowded area, accounting for about 90% of establishments in the Philippines. Somehow, it’s still underserved and untapped. (Our program) focuses on the lowest down payment possible — 10%, with a maximum term of 84 months. We are also offering a weekly payment scheme.”

He added that TFSPH has “other programs that will somehow improve (customers’) ability to pay,” and keenly target those who are “fresh to credit, by employing nontraditional approaches in approving applications so that we may be able to expand the market base.” TFSPH will tailor packages “based on capability to service monthly obligations.”

With TMP and its affiliate companies staging a comprehensive, complete campaign across multiple battlefronts, you could very say that the Tamaraw definitely has more than a fighting chance as a returning “combatant.”

Debt yields end higher

By Lourdes O. Pilar, Researcher

YIELDS on government securities (GS) mostly climbed last week as the market awaited the policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for hints on the future path of benchmark interest rates.

GS yields, which move opposite to prices, went up by an average of 7.08 basis points (bps) week on week at the secondary market, based on the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates as of Dec. 20 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

GS volume traded decreased to P24 billion last week from P35.73 billion a week prior.

At the short end, yields on the 91- and 182-day Treasury bills (T-bills) increased by 10.43 bps and 1.94 bps to 5.9447% and 6.0765%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 364-day T-bill saw its rate drop by 0.23 bp to 6.0716%.

At the belly of the curve, the rates of the two-, three-, four-, five-, and seven-year Treasury bonds (T-bonds) rose 5.74 bps (6.0031%), 9.78 bps (6.0098%), 12.72 bps (6.0196%), 14.06 bps (6.0258%), and 14.95 bps (6.0327%), respectively.

Lastly, at the long end, the 10-year T-bond went up by 9.29 bps to fetch 6.0101%. Meanwhile, yields on the 20- and 25-year papers inched down by 0.61 bp to 6.0921% and 0.19 bp to 6.0943%, respectively.

“Local bonds had a rough week given the upward movement of US Treasuries due to data showing the resilience of the US economy and forward guidance by the Fed on future plans on monetary policy,” Alessandra P. Araullo, chief investment officer at ATRAM Trust Corp., said in a Viber message.

The market mostly consolidated early last week as players were cautious before the policy decisions of the Fed and the BSP, she said.

“On Thursday, Philippine bonds were sold off once again after the Fed delivered a 25-bp cut accompanied by a more hawkish than expected forward guidance. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, in his speech after the decision, said that the Fed will be more cautious as it considers further adjustments to policy rates. The Summary of Economic Projections, which provides insights into the expectations of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), showed that the members are now only expecting two 25-bp cuts for 2025 from originally four cuts,” Ms. Araullo said.

“On the other hand, the BSP also decided to cut by 25 bps. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. also walked back some of his comments earlier this month and said that they no longer see 100 bps worth of rate cuts in 2025, mimicking the Fed’s view. The hawkish rhetoric caused yields in the three- to 10-year space to move higher by 13 bps on average while the rest of the curve remained relatively unchanged.”

A bond trader likewise said in an e-mail that GS yields mostly rose last week following the Fed’s “hawkish cut.”

This week, both analysts expect muted trading as the market will be closed for the Christmas holidays and amid a lack of catalysts.

“Bonds will likely continue to trade at current ranges. One key risk that we are anticipating will be the release of the BTr’s (Bureau of the Treasury) borrowing schedule which may cause investors to reposition accordingly to accommodate the additional supply,” Ms. Araullo said.

“We remain constructive on short dated local bonds for now as we may see another selloff due to future macroeconomic data and supply risk.”

Ayala stock falls after getting €50-M loan

SHARES of Ayala Corp. declined after the company secured a €50-million loan for Ayala Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AC Health).

The stock closed 3.3% lower at 593.50 each on Friday from a week earlier. About 1.5 million shares worth P899.42 million switched hands from Dec. 16-20, making it the ninth most actively traded stock on the local bourse last week.

The stock has fallen 12.8% this year.

Last week, the listed company got a social loan from ING Group to support AC Health’s growth.

“This social loan from ING will enable us not only to build and scale our AC Health portfolio, but it will also enable us to serve more Filipinos by providing them access to quality and affordable healthcare,” Ayala Chief Finance Officer Alberto M. de Larrazabal said in a statement.

The capital investment would improve AC Health’s capacity to fill important gaps in the local healthcare industry, Juan Alfonso G. Teodoro, equity research analyst at Timson Securities, Inc., said in a Viber message.

“According to a report by Ayala, the funding would go toward capital expenditures for AC Health’s hospital and retail pharmacy groups, including QualiMed and St. Joseph Drug, as well as portfolio growth,” he said.

In August, AC Health completed its acquisition of a 49% stake in St. Joseph Drug, adding the North Luzon-based pharmaceutical company to its healthcare portfolio. Established in 1958, St. Joseph Drug has more than 112 stores in North Luzon.

Alexandra Margaux Denise G. Yatco, equity analyst at Regina Capital Development Corp., said the social loan could contribute to the company’s revenue.

The company’s third-quarter revenue rose 9.4% to P76.24 billion from a year earlier, bringing its nine-month revenue to P232.88 billion or 11.9% higher.

But the company’s net income during the quarter fell 16% to P11.68 billion, bringing its nine-month net income to P33.96 billion, or 5.1% higher.

“The segment’s net income growth may still be slower compared with the general health and pharmaceutical industry decline seen in the third quarter of 2024,” Ms. Yatco said in a separate Viber message.

“Investors are looking for possible value opportunities which may have been drawn to Ayala Corp.’s stock because it has been trading close to its 52-week low of ₱560 per share,” Mr. Teodoro said.

“AC in particular had several price dips throughout the week, yet was partially supported by solid third-quarter earnings and recent company news such as the firm’s aim to redeem P10-billion bonds due on February 10, 2025,” Ms. Yatco said.

Mr. Teodoro said the stock price had been affected by foreign investors reshoring back to US markets.

“The local market scene may see muted performance next year due to the recent US Fed rate cuts and the potential implementation of tariff adjustments as property and holdings, while banking, consumer, and power may continue to hold steady,” Ms. Yatco said.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates for a third time by 25 basis points.

“According to the Fed, only two rate cuts are possible next year. So that should give a breather for the heavily battered local market,” Mr. Teodoro said.

He added that the financial circumstances of groups like Ayala might improve under a low-interest environment. “A decline in the dollar may result from lower US interest rates, which could help economies like the Philippines that have a lot of debt denominated in dollars.”

Mr. Teodoro also said investors could buy AC shares at even cheaper prices next year if foreign investors’ sell-off continues.

“The selling pressure may continue to prevail in the upcoming days, as the market continues to digest recent interest rate cut news and clear out positions for the upcoming year,” Ms. Yatco said.

“We expect [the stock] price to retrace back to our P600 to P610 resistance level before possibly going to our next support level, which will be around the P560 to P580 area, where we expect price to bounce off to,” Mr. Teodoro said. — Pierce Oel A. Montalvo

Design Center to open satellite offices outside NCR

THE Department of Trade and Industry-Design Center of the Philippines unveiled plans to open several satellite offices outside the National Capital Region (NCR) — but first, they’re moving offices.

On Dec. 5 at the First United Building in Escolta, Manila, during the Design Center’s Media Salo-Salo, Maria Rita O. Matute, executive director of the Design Center, told media about the impending move from their present Sen. Gil Puyat office in Pasay City up the same road in Makati in January 2025. “We’ve outgrown our current office,” said Ms. Matute in an interview with BusinessWorld. They’re moving from the Philippine Trade Training Center to the Fair Trade Enforcement Bureau office (after they moved from the Cultural Center of the Philippines due to the widespread renovations in the complex).

“While we’re still waiting for the approval na sana (of the) design museum/co-working space/Design Center office… this will serve for the next two, three years; hopefully, as we continue to grow,” she said.

EXPANDING
She said that they would reach almost 200 staffers by 2028, if all their plans come to fruition.

Their increasing size is due to Republic Act No. 10557 (An Act Promoting and Strengthening Filipino Design, Providing for the Purpose a National Design Policy and Renaming the Product Development and Design Center of the Philippines into the Design Center of the Philippines and for Other Purposes). Section 4 of the Act says, “The Product Development and Design Center of the Philippines is hereby reengineered and renamed into the Design Center of the Philippines, herein referred to as the Design Center. It shall be attached to the Department of Trade and Industry. It is mandated to promote design as a creative tool for improving the quality and competitiveness and branding of Filipino products in the global market; as a strategic tool of value creation for sustainable economic growth and development; and as an innovative tool for enhancing the quality of human life.”

“The mandate was expanded,” explained Ms. Matute. “It needs to have people. It’s not just people in Metro Manila.

“Part of that Republic Act is to create satellite offices,” she said, noting that they plan to open those in Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.

“To make design a culture, you really need to be on the ground and not just in the National Capital Region.”

GOOD DESIGN AWARDS
Other achievements of the Design Center were highlighted during the event, such as the success of Good Design Award Philippines, the national design excellence recognition program.

Good Design Award Philippines showcased 84 shortlisted entries, an 87% increase from the previous edition, with 27 of these earning the prestigious award.

Among these winners, nine designs were conferred with Japan’s renowned G Mark, affirming the opportunities waiting for the Philippines in the international market.

“Through programs like Good Design Award Philippines and collaborations with Good Design Award Japan (G Mark), we help not only new micro-, small- and medium-enterprises (MSMEs) demonstrate their creativity, innovation, and social impact on the world stage, but also open up new and higher value international trade rates,” Ms. Matute said in a statement.

A cornerstone of the Design Center’s initiatives is its work with pinyapel®, a sustainable, non-wood alternative for the pulp and paper industry. The Design x pinyapel® project is a platform to take Philippine MSMEs on a path toward green entrepreneurship. Using pinyapel®, pulp made from discarded pineapple leaves, this collection is a result of the collaboration and co-creation between the agency, Creative Director Milo Naval, and 21 companies for the production of the materials to its transformation into interior products.

The Design Center also joined a global panel on democratizing design, alongside the UK, Germany, and Taiwan at the World Design Policy Conference held in San Diego California. The Philippines is considered one of the Global models for democratizing design.   

Ms. Matute discussed that MSMEs could avail of their support through the various resources they have at their disposal: these include WGSN trend reports, and their design collection and library, which contains over 1,000 titles related to design. “They can come anytime, eight to five, to get (free) access to these resources.” — JLG

France bird flu-free after month without outbreaks

REUTERS

PARIS — France has declared itself to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the absence of new outbreaks for more than a month, though the country remains on high alert for the virus that has been spreading rapidly in Europe, the agriculture ministry said.

France had recorded 12 farm outbreaks of the disease, commonly called bird flu, since early August, as well as three cases among backyard poultry, the ministry said in a statement.

Surveillance was lifted in the past week at the locations of the most recent cases, it said.

The return to bird flu-free status under international rules could help French trade by leading some importing countries to lift restrictions typically introduced following bird flu outbreaks.

“Good news for our poultry sector, enabled by the vaccination strategy implemented since October 2023 and which will continue in 2025,” acting Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard said in a post on X regarding the bird flu-free status.

France launched a year ago a vaccination programme for farm ducks, which are notably reared for foie gras pate and are seen as particularly vulnerable to bird flu.

The US, meanwhile, is grappling with transmission of bird flu to cattle and humans. It reported its first severe human case of bird flu after suspected contact with an infected backyard flock. — Reuters

How PSEi member stocks performed — December 20, 2024

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Friday, December 20, 2024.

Auto Sales (November 2024)

VEHICLE SALES in the Philippines jumped by 8.5% year on year in November, mainly driven by demand for commercial vehicles, an industry report. Read the full story.

Auto Sales (November 2024)

PHL stocks may drop on hawkish BSP, Fed hints

BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE SHARES could move lower in the shortened trading week amid bearish sentiment following the hawkish tone of the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

On Friday, the bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 0.16% or 10.78 points to close at 6,406.38, while the broader all shares index went up by 0.11% or 4.08 points to 3,675.83.

Week on week, however, the PSEi fell by 3.18% or 210.13 points from the 6,616.51 finish on Dec. 13.

“Hawkish comments from the Fed and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) spooked local equities,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The local market is turning more bearish as it extended its decline last week… On a positive note, the 6,400 support line still holds,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

For this week, market weakness could persist as investors digest policy hints from both the Fed and the BSP, Mr. Tantiangco said.

“From a fundamental standpoint, the local market has been driven to more attractive levels, giving opportunity to bargain hunters. However, the trimmed rate cut projections of both the Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may weigh on the market,” he said.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its third interest rate cut of the year but forecast in its summary of economic projections just two 25-basis-point (bp) cuts for 2025, down from its September view of four cuts, in a nod to the economy’s continued health and sticky inflation, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the BSP Monetary Board on Thursday delivered a third straight rate cut, slashing its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75% from 6%. The central bank has now reduced benchmark borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps this year since it began its easing cycle in August.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said delivering 100 bps worth of cuts next year may be “too much” as inflation risks remain.

“The 2025 national budget concerns, if it remains unresolved this week, may also dampen sentiment. Investors are also expected to monitor the movement of the local currency. A further depreciation of the peso is expected to pose downside risks to the market while a recovery is expected to provide the opposite,” Mr. Tantiangco added. He put the market’s immediate support at 6,400 and major resistance at 6,800.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort placed the PSEi’s support at 6,400 and resistance at 7,000.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com put support at 6,200-6,400 and resistance at 6,500-6,700.

“Expect quiet sessions in the final trading week of the year… 2025 forces and themes are looking to demand more active management styles as the hunt for alpha becomes less straightforward and more challenging,” it said.

Philippine financial markets are closed on Dec. 24-25 for Christmas Eve and Day. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave with Reuters

US posture in PHL’s sea dispute with China hinges on Trump’s Cabinet

US PRESIDENT-ELECT Donald J. Trump is set to assume office on Jan. 20, 2025. — REUTERS

By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter

WASHINGTON’s stance in dealing with Manila’s dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea will hinge on who ends up joining US President-elect Donald J. Trump’s Cabinet, a security analyst said as his nominees favor a hawkish approach towards China.

“What remains to be seen is what posture the US will take toward the West Philippine Sea and the alliance in 2025 under Donald Trump,” Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message.

“Many of Trump’s initial cabinet nominations have taken hawkish positions on China and may look for opportunities to keep Beijing off-balance.”

Last month, Mr. Trump nominated former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe to head the Central Intelligence Office, FOX News host Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary and Florida Congressman Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser.

He had also named New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as the United Nations ambassador. They are known for advocating a “hard-line” foreign policy on Beijing.

“With the incoming Trump return to the White House, we will expect that China will intensify its gray zone tactics and legal claims in the West Philippine Sea,” Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Beijing is poised to increase its aggression as it may see Manila topside more with Washington.”

The Philippines and China have been embroiled in repeated spats in the past few years over disputed features within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), sparking regional concerns about a miscalculation and escalation at sea.

Just last Friday, Reuters reported that China’s coast guard said it warned and “drove away” a Philippine C-208 aircraft that “illegally” entered the airspace over Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines calls Bajo de Masinloc, in the South China Sea.

China urged the Philippine side to immediately cease “violations and provocations”, the coast guard said, adding that it will continue to strengthen law enforcement in “waters under China’s jurisdiction.”

Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tristan Tarriela clarified in an X post on Saturday that the PCG vessels and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) aircraft left the vicinity of Shoal “by their own decision” after the successful delivery of supplies to fishermen in the area.

“The PCG vessels and BFAR aircraft conducted legitimate patrols in our waters at Bajo De Masinloc to ensure the safety and security of our Filipino fishermen,” Mr. Tarriela said.

“We have also noted China’s encroachment in Bajo De Masinloc, with the deployment of China Coast Guard vessels, the Chinese Maritime Militia, and even a PLA (People’s Liberation Army) Navy vessel.”

Mr. Tarriel also said Beijing has no jurisdiction over Scarborough Shoal, citing the 2016 Arbitral Award and Article 121 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which classified it as a rock.

“The Philippines has sovereignty over it, including its territorial sea. The waters beyond Bajo de Masinloc’s 12-nautical-mile territorial sea up to 200 nautical miles, fall within the Philippine EEZ, measured from Luzon’s baseline.”

China has rejected the 2016 ruling, which invalidated its claims, under international law.

Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, The Philippines and Vietnam all claim parts of the sea. Tensions have risen amid concern over China’s expansive claims encroach on their exclusive economic zones.

In April, Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and Democrat Senator Tim Kaine pushed a bill that increased US military aid for the Philippines to $500 million from $40 million over five fiscal years through 2029.

The Philippines, one of the weakest in the world in terms of military capability, is important to Washington’s efforts to push back against China, which claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety.

Last month, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said he had a “very productive” congratulatory phone call with United States Mr.  Trump, following an election that has put countries in the Indo-Pacific region on a wait-and-see mode.

The Philippine leader said the relationship between the US and the Philippines is “as deep as can possibly be because it has been for a very long time.”

“Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal have emerged as the two primary flashpoints as 2025 begins,” Mr. Powell said. “Second Thomas Shoal has, for now, receded as both the Philippines and China seem content with the murky terms of the truce reached last summer.” — with Reuters

Marcos admin may be considering legal charges vs VP Sara ahead of polls

Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporters

THE GOVERNMENT of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is likely considering letting the country’s justice system deal with Vice-President (VP) Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio’s alleged misuse of secret funds, delaying her impeachment process after the midterm elections, analysts said over the weekend.

“Since it was not acted upon by the House leadership from the first impeachment complaint that was filed, [it seems] they opted to take the criminal charges route,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook messenger Chat.

Ms. Duterte has been slapped with a slew of ouster raps at the House of Representatives, with three impeachment complaints accusing the embattled vice-president of failing to account for more than P600 million worth of confidential and intelligence funds (CIF) in 2022 and 2023.

The Office of the Vice-President did not immediately respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

Ephraim B. Cortez, president of the National Union of Peoples’ Lawyers, said that Ms. Duterte could be held criminally liable for plunder and falsification of public documents in relation to her disbursements of secret funds. Congressmen earlier unveiled that fictitious identities were used as CIF recipients.

He said complaints could be filed with the Ombudsman, the country’s anti-graft body responsible for investigating and prosecuting government officials accused of graft, corruption and other crimes.

It is currently headed by Ombudsman Samuel R. Martires, with his term set to end in August 2025.

“The new Ombudsman should not be afraid of going against the Dutertes,” said Mr. Aguirre.

Mr. Cortez said Ms. Duterte could simultaneously face ouster proceedings and Ombudsman complaints.

“The proceedings in the Ombudsman are for the purpose of determining criminal liability. Impeachment on the other hand is a constitutional process for the removal of an impeachable officer, like the vice-president,” he said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Aguirre noted that lawmakers may have opted for the “riskier” route of deliberating the impeachment complaints after the midterm elections due to the lack of urgency from the House leadership to act on the impeachment complaints.

The House first deliberates impeachment complaints, requiring one-third of its members, or at least 103 congressmen, to find the ouster allegations with merit before the case is elevated to the Senate for trial.

“Looking at the calendar, the timeline for an impeachment process to happen became tight since Congress is now in recess,” he said. “They are also having another break in February in preparation for the midterms.”

The Philippine Congress went on recess for its Christmas break on Dec. 21, resuming again on Jan. 13 for its final leg of session before the midterm polls in May 2025. Lawmakers would then go on break for four months in preparation for the upcoming election.

Incumbent officials will have the looming impeachment complaint against Ms. Duterte hanging over their heads amid their re-election campaign, said Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University.

“Before the elections, the impeachment process will force prospective candidates to canvas their constituencies and determine how many remain loyal, or at least supportive of the Dutertes,” he said in a separate Facebook chat.

“The results of such can help sway the actions of concerned lawmakers and the prospective candidates among them,” he added.

Mr. Borja noted that congressmen are relatively insulated from the repercussions of supporting or opposing Ms. Duterte’s impeachment. Senators, however, bear the brunt of the decision, as the feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps is “at the national level.”

Ouster raps against Ms. Duterte come against the backdrop of a widening political rift between two of the country’s most influential political clans. The falling out of the Dutertes and Marcoses has resulted in the collapse of what was once a formidable electoral alliance that delivered them landslide wins in the 2022 elections.

DECLINING TRUST RATING
Ms. Duterte and House Speaker Martin G. Romualdez emerged as the biggest losers in Pulse Asia Survey Research, Inc.’s most recent approval and trust rating.

Ms. Duterte’s trust rating in November declined by 12 points to 61% from 49% in September, while her approval score fell to 50% from 60%.

Her trust rating was still highest in Mindanao at 81%, but this was a 9 percentage-point decline from 90% in September. Her rating in Visayas also plunged to 47% from 74%.

Her trust rating fell to 34% from 37% in the capital region. It declined in Luzon areas outside Metro Manila to 37% from 47%.

Mr. Aguirre cited Ms. Duterte’s “numerous meltdowns” that have been well discussed on social media and in the news cycle.

“The accusations too that VP Sara is using government resources for her presidential ambition might also be affecting her in a negative way,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

The Vice-President’s approval rating in Mindanao also plunged to 80% from 93% and saw a 20-percentage point decline in the Visayas at 51%.

Her approval ratings in Balance Luzon and Metro Manila fell to 40% from 46% and to 34% from 36%, respectively.

In the survey, Mr. Romualdez continued to be the least trusted among the top four Philippine officials, with only 21% or 1 in 5 Filipinos saying they trust him. This was down from 31% in September.

His distrust rating was higher at 35%, up from 25% two months earlier.

In the Visayas, his supposed bailiwick, his trust rating declined by 14-percentage point, while his distrust rating rose by 24 points.

His approval rating in Visayas also went down by 7 percentage points, while his disapproval rating rose by 8 percentage points.

“The equally drastic increase of disapproval towards Speaker Romualdez indicates the relative insulation of the president from the political duels between the VP and the House,” Mr. Borja.

He said the survey results were not necessarily good for the Marcos administration because for one, “the approval and disapproval for both the President and the Vice-President are statistically tied with both experiencing increasing levels of disapproval.”

The President’s trust rating declined by three percentage points to 47% in November from 50% in September.

His approval rating dropped by two percentage points to 48% from 50%.

While the President’s approval rating saw a 12-percentage point decline in Mindanao, it rose by 4 percentage points in Luzon.

“The president must not be seen as dealing with anything else other than the most pertinent issues on economic welfare and public service. To this end,” Mr. Borja said.

Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches politics at the Ateneo, said Ms. Duterte has “failed to control the narrative against her, and the media cycle continues to be about how every major political actor in Congress is out to get her.”

“Considering her stances and her seeming unwillingness to take accountability for anything, these declines are predictable,” he added in a Messenger chat.

In the survey, which has a margin error of 2% at the 95% confidence level, Pulse interviewed 2,400 adults.

Over P15-M Phivolcs budget cut compromises protection for landslide-prone areas, group says

PCOO

A SCIENTIST group at the weekend flagged the massive cut under the Congress-approved 2025 national budget for an early warning system project designed to prepare communities for landslides, which it said is a step in the wrong direction as the country bears the brunt of the worsening climate.

The cut, which would see the Dynaslope project’s budget slashed to P25.5 million next year from P41.1 million in 2024, has serious consequences for landslide-prone communities, AGHAM said in a statement.

“Cutting its budget now — when typhoons are becoming stronger and more frequent — is a step in the wrong direction, risking lives and erasing hard-won progress in disaster resilience.”

AGHAM said if the cut pushes through, a third or 19 of the project’s employees are at risk of losing their jobs next year.

This will affect scientists, researchers and other personnel working on the project, it said.

“Such move will waste highly valuable government resources—skilled disaster risk reduction management workers who have spent years honing their expertise through rigorous training and work experience, serving vulnerable communities.”

“These workers, already burdened by pay delays, unsafe working conditions, job insecurity, and the absence of rightful benefits, now face yet another threat to their livelihoods,” it added.

Dynaslope, a project at the Department of Science and Technology’s Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, has been providing community-based early warning systems for landslides in the Philippines since 2008.

It monitors 52 landslide sites in 18 provinces and has developed hazard maps, risk assessments, a landslide monitoring system, and landslide early warning committees in partnership with local government units (LGUs).

In an open letter to Mr. Marcos dated Dec. 17, Dynaslope project staff including scientists, engineers and community development professionals said the 44% budget reduction will “deeply compromise a lifeline that protects Filipino lives and livelihoods from landslide disasters.”

They said professionals working for the project have “devoted years to honing their expertise through rigorous training, practice, and research.”

“This loss threatens to severely undermine our 24/7 landslide monitoring operations, downscale cutting-edge landslide research, and reduce critical capacity-building initiatives and technical assistance to communities — all of which vital for advancing disaster risk reduction strategies,” they said.

At the 2024 Gawad KALASAG awards, Mr. Marcos urged the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and other concerned agencies and LGUs “to continue working together to develop innovative solutions that are science-based, that are sustainable, and are future-ready, and establish clear guidelines for more effective disaster-response.”

Dynaslope staff said the project “is a prime example of such innovation, pioneering a community-based early warning system for landslides that has safeguarded 52 vulnerable communities across 24 provinces, protecting thousands of lives, public infrastructures, and empowering over 46 local government units to protect their people.”

Mr. Marcos in November said typhoons experienced by his country have been increasingly unpredictable due to the changing climate, and that his government doesn’t have a “template to follow” in terms of response.

“With your support, we can continue our work and expand our services to more environmentally fragile communities,” they added. “Without sufficient funding, life-saving efforts in the development of localized, cost-efficient landslide early warning technologies will be stalled, leaving more at risk,” Dynaslope workers said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Mary Jane Veloso’s pardon won’t hurt PHL-Indonesia ties — NUPL

Mary Jane Veloso is emotional upon seeing her parents, sons and other family members inside the Correctional Institute for Women in Mandaluyong City, Dec. 18. PHOTO BY MIGUEL DE GUZMAN, The Philippine Star

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

ADVOCATES urged President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. to grant an absolute pardon to Mary Jane F. Veloso, a Filipina who was previously a death-row prisoner in Indonesia, to address what they describe as “a grave miscarriage of justice,” asserting that such a move will not significantly impact Manila’s relations with Jakarta.

“It is wise and proper for President Marcos to grant absolute pardon on Mary Jane… to correct an injustice done to her,” National Union of Peoples’ Lawyers (NUPL) President Ephraim B. Cortez told BusinessWorld in a Viber message over the weekend.

“It is clear that Mary Jane was a victim of human trafficking. Under international conventions on human trafficking, and under both Indonesian and Philippine laws, trafficked victims are exempted from criminal liability, meaning that they should not be prosecuted for the crimes they committed as trafficked persons,” he added.

He noted this issue was never raised during her trial in Indonesia, leading to her prosecution for drug trafficking when she should have been exempted from criminal liability.

“Since Mary Jane is now under the custody of the Philippine government, it has the power to correct that injustice, and the way to do it is through executive clemency by granting her an absolute pardon.”

The President has absolute power to grant executive clemency.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, lecturer at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance, said granting clemency would not drastically affect Manila and Jakarta’s diplomatic relations.

“[It] would not drastically affect our ties with Indonesia given [it] already transitioned all the legalities of Veloso’s case to the Philippine judicial system. Therefore, such decisions are beyond Indonesian purview by now,” he told BusinessWorld in a Messenger chat.

He, however, noted that illicit drug cases are something Jakarta is stringent with, it might view Manila’s drug policies as “not that serious enough” which “may affect their decision to our future pleas, if ever.”

“There will be not [many] diplomatic setbacks, if ever, as Indonesia also respects the Philippines’ sovereignty and jurisdiction on the matter. However, should similar circumstances transpire again in the near future, then Jakarta might be wary already of granting similar pleas relating to such circumstances.”

NUPL’s Mr. Cortez also noted that Ms. Veloso is now entitled to remedies and protection the country could afford her as jurisdiction over her case has been transferred back to the Philippine government.

“This includes [availing] of clemency through absolute pardon,” he said, noting the nine Australian convicts turned over by the Indonesians to the Australians who were released immediately as soon as they landed in Australia.

“The Philippine government should do the same [to Ms. Veloso],” he noted.

The President last week said he is still consulting with legal experts on Ms. Veloso’s clemency request, adding “We are still far from that… We still have to have a look at really what her status is.”

Ms. Veloso was convicted in 2010 for drug trafficking in Indonesia after being caught with heroin in her luggage. However, evidence and testimonies that emerged later strongly suggest that Ms. Veloso was a victim of human trafficking, exploited by a syndicate that used her as an unwitting drug courier.

She received a last-minute reprieve from execution in 2015 after the late former President Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III appealed to the Indonesian government, arguing she could be a vital witness in prosecuting drug syndicates.

She arrived in Manila last Dec. 18 after almost 15 years of incarceration in Indonesian prison.

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