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Agriculture and economic recovery

The economy is breaking out of recession. It is hard to believe that since GDP in the first quarter contracted by 4.2%. Just the same, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and the Department of Finance (DOF) are optimistic based on economic indicators. The unemployment rate in March fell from 8.8% to 7.1% in just a month. The underemployment rate was down two percentage points also in March, to 16.2%. Labor force participation rate rose as well. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the economy had a net new employment in the first quarter of 2.8 million jobs.

Recovery this year is also hard to believe because of the lingering effect of COVID-19. The positive quarterly growth expected by our economic managers might just evaporate in the face of the second wave of COVID-19’s new cases starting in the second half of March this year. Health authorities once again had to be the killjoy to the economic recovery. They placed NCR Plus areas under ECQ and MECQ — the two strictest quarantine levels — in most of the second quarter. And when the surge in the NCR seemed to have been brought under control, new cases spiked in other parts of the country.

The good news we now have is that this year we have access to the COVID-19 vaccines. The uncertainty and desperation which gripped us last year are slowly being replaced with hope of reducing COVID-19 to a manageable disease, getting the economy to generate jobs and incomes, and of seizing back the normal lives we used to have before the pandemic snatched those from us in the first quarter of last year. The authorities will increasingly do an even better and faster job of vaccinating the population to attain herd immunity, hopefully this year.

With reasonable hope, the economy may grow for three straight quarters this year despite the current wave of new COVID-19 cases. Economic managers had set their eyes on economic growth from 6-7% this year. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), noting the slow pace of economic recovery, downgraded its projected economic growth of the Philippines to 5.4% from nearly 7%.

Just the same, analysts take such forecasts with a grain of salt. No one knows the future exactly. Economic managers could hit their economic growth target if better things happen in the economy in the second half of this year that forecasters failed to put into their economic forecasting models. Equally possible, growth could even be lower than the IMF’s projection.

We can define economic performance in the remaining quarters of the year the way we want it to be. It would be disappointing if we closed the year with an economic contraction, and if that happens, we deserve the hardships which that entails for not doing our part in rebuilding the economy from the recession.

I recall former NEDA Secretary and now Philippine Competition Commission Chairman Arsenio Balisacan telling a few of us that he told the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasters, who had always forecast the Philippines to be among the worst performers in Asia, to check their data and forecasting model they used. The ADB analysts had claimed that the projections they made were all based on existing data. That was in 2011, if I am not mistaken. Balisacan knew there were better developments in the economy and expected it to rebound.

Balisacan was right. Starting in 2012, the economy started to grow faster until it became the second-best performer in the ADB region after China. It stayed so even beyond the Aquino government, so much so that the NEDA had targeted to get rid of poverty in the country by 2040.

But of course, COVID-19 spoiled our chance of becoming a higher income developing country, and, like Malaysia, of significantly alleviating our poverty problem. All countries had their share of the global economic recession from COVID-19. The Philippine economy nosedived to double digit negative growth in the second quarter of 2020, to finish off that year with -9.5%.

AGRICULTURE’S CONTRIBUTION
There are many things we can do to rebuild our economy better. I would just like to focus on agriculture. I examined agriculture’s performance since 2000. Over the past two decades, its growth had significantly dropped. Figure 1 shows how the growth of value added from agriculture, fisheries, and forestry has been going down since 2000. In the last decade, the disparity between GDP (gross domestic product) and GVA (gross value added) growth had widened, when the economy had become one of Asia’s best performers.

Agricultural growth failed to contribute to the higher growth of the economy. The resurgence of manufacturing and continued growth of the services sectors in the last decade failed to pull up agriculture’s performance. The average growth of GVA was 3.5% from 2001 to 2010 and fell to 1.9% in the last decade, excluding the COVID-19 year of 2020. In contrast, GDP expanded from an average growth of 5% in the earlier decade to 6.3% from 2011 to 2019.

If agriculture is going to make a significant contribution to economic recovery, it should recover its growth performance of several years back. But what should authorities focus on to realize that?

I associate this lackluster growth of agriculture to the falling tradability of the sector. Countries that tend to be more open to trade are those that are likely to succeed not only in increasing their agricultural exports, but also in garnering positive net exports. But progressively, our agriculture sector had increasing lost its capability to export and import through the years.

In Table 1, agriculture’s share in total exports used to be 64% in the 1960s. Two years ago, it had fallen to only 8%. It’s true we now have a more diversified export basket compared to the 1960s. Let us look at another indicator, agricultural exports share in gross value added of the sector. In the 1960s, that used to be a third and dropped to only 1.6% in 2019.

Declining tradability is reflected as well in agricultural and food imports. The share of agricultural imports to the total had declined until 2000. But in the most recent two decades, agriculture’s share to total imports climbed up because of rice imports. The National Food Authority (NFA) miscalculated its response to the 2008 rice crisis, and, in a panic, imported more rice than the country needed. In 2019, Congress enacted the rice tariffication law, liberalizing rice imports.

Falling importability of agriculture is better reflected in the share of imports to gross value added in agriculture. In the 1960s, that share was 6%. In the next three decades, it climbed up, reflecting falling productivity of the rice industry relative to food needs. Despite increases in rice imports in the last two decades, importability of the sector fell to less than 2%.

Summing it up, agricultural trade in proportion to GVA fell from 38% in the 1960s to only 3.5%. I associate this to falling sectoral growth, which I earlier noted. If the sector could recover its growth performance and contribute to a stronger and faster economic recovery, it has to become more open like the rest of the economy.

 

Ramon L. Clarete is a professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics.

Opposition coalitions in Israel and the Philippines

PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES
CONVENORS of the 1Sambayan present the coalition during its launching in Makati City on March 18. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

Today’s politics in Israel is complicated and confusing, and seems crazy. The coalition that has replaced Benjamin Netanyahu’s 12-year regime is an oddball mix of eight political parties. They consist of the ultra-right Orthodox Jews, former allies of Netanyahu and other conservative hardliners, the secular upper middle class, center-left Labor, left-wing social democrats and Greens, Arabs, and Islamists.

Their ideologies and political platforms clash. The centrists and the left favor a two-state solution with the Palestinians. The conservatives and the hawks want further expansion of Jewish settlements in Palestine’s West Bank. Some parties are secular; the others are sectarian and extremely nationalistic.

Nothing unites all those that have joined the “unity government” except their being anti-Netanyahu. In the words of a neo-conservative Jewish columnist, what fell Netanyahu was his politics of “demagogy, vilification, sleaziness, and sheer pettiness.” Netanyahu’s corruption is spectacular. He has been indicted for bribery, deception, and breach of trust in three cases. The trial is in its early stage.

In truth, Naftali Bennett, who will serve as prime minister for the first two years of the new government, is more ideologically aligned with Netanyahu. Some pundits say he is “definitely worse than Netanyahu.” He is for further annexing of Palestinian land and blocking a two-state solution.

One can argue though that the reality of coalition politics to preserve power makes a hardline politician pragmatic. The combination of keeping the coalition and dealing with foreign affairs will compel Bennett to make compromises.

The unwieldy coalition has succeeded in ousting Netanyahu. But the most difficult part is how to stabilize a fractious, fragile coalition.

Israel’s politics of coalition that removed Netanyahu might seem to be an attractive playbook to follow for the Philippine opposition. The opposition sees the imperative of having just one candidate to contest the presidency in the 2022 elections. The various forces of the opposition have formed 1Sambayan, which draws membership from across the political spectrum. The primary basis of unity is being anti-Duterte.

Despite their ideological and political contradictions and their deeply rooted animosities, the opposition forces have an anti-Duterte program. The coalition can find unity in a better way to fight COVID-19, the containment of Chinese aggression, the human rights abuses particularly the extra-judicial killings, and the peace talks.

But on other big issues like dealing with economic and social policies, ideological and political biases will obstruct consensus. On the economy, the debate will revolve around the role of state interventions and freer markets. On social issues, conservatives in the coalition will oppose expansion of gay rights and reproductive and sexual health goods.

Even on issues where unity can be found — say, the peace talks— problems on framework and implementation will arise. 1Sambayan co-founder and retired Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio favors peace talks, but wants negotiations to be done within the purview of the Constitution. The National Democratic Front has rejected this. (In the case of the talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, both parties avoided making the Constitution a deal-breaker.)

In other words, like the Israeli coalition that ousted Netanyahu, the anti-Duterte Philippine coalition is tenuous.

Despite the similarity between the successful anti-Netanyahu coalition and the struggling anti-Duterte coalition, the differences are also stark.

One difference is the scope of the coalition. The Israeli coalition is broad, having been able to attract bedfellows of Netanyahu and their nemeses. 1Sambayan, however, remains narrow. The narrowness has become pronounced in the wake of the withdrawal of strong candidates from its list.

The anti-Netanyahu coalition is opportunistic. 1Sambayan is pure. As mentioned earlier, the Israeli coalition includes personalities and parties that were once close allies or partners of Netanyahu. The new prime minister is in fact more hardline than Netanyahu.

1Sambayan has rejected politicians allied with the administration, even though some of these politicians, like Manny Pacquiao, have discreetly distanced themselves from Duterte. Off the bat, former Justice Carpio rejected Pacquiao’s inclusion in 1Sambayan.

This is a naïve view about tactical coalitions. It is a manifestation of sectarianism. (The dictionary defines sectarianism as “narrow-minded devotion to a particular sect.”) Perhaps, another coalition, never mind its being opportunist, has to be built that can break apart the Duterte camp and win over impure politicians that can no longer be accommodated by the ruling party.

The second difference is that unlike the situation in Israel where the coalition removed a sitting prime minister, Duterte will complete his term, which will end soon. He is not eligible to run for reelection. It’s more challenging to explain to unsophisticated voters an anti-Duterte campaign when Duterte himself is not in the race.

Assume that daughter Sara Duterte is Rodrigo’s anointed candidate. In line with traditional social norms, Sara will likely shield her father from accountability.

But a clever Sara can package herself as a Duterte who is different from her dad. In this way, she would still be able to capture the Duterte votes at the same time that she could court those voters disappointed with her dad.

The claim of Sara’s independence from Rodrigo is credible. Rodrigo has described his daughter as pasaway (stubborn). But this pasaway is dangerous. In one tweet, she wrote: “I have been described as heartless by my mother.”

On the difference between father and daughter, read Peter Kreuzer’s “Governors and Mayors in the Philippines: Resistance to or Support for Duterte’s Deadly War on Drugs” (Jan. 1, 2020). The Kreuzer paper documented the varied responses of different local government units (LGUs) to Duterte’s war on drugs. Kreuzer’s study dealt with the war on drugs between 2016 and 2017 in seven highly urbanized LGUs. The LGUs consisted of two provinces and five independent cities, including Sara Duterte’s Davao City.

Manolo Quezon’s Inquirer column of June 16 also cites the Kreuzer report. This opinion piece does not intend to provide a full review of the Kreuzer study, which the Quezon column does. Rather, it wants to point out a critical difference between President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter, Mayor Sara Duterte.

It behooves the opposition to anticipate the implications of any contradiction between father and daughter.

The gist of Kreuzer’s argument follows: “Active local chief executives” that had their own program on citizen security and crime control and had ownership on policies through dense networks enjoyed the police’s trust and cooperation. This counteracted national influence when police loyalty was conflicted. “Passive chief executives” that lacked ownership of such program suffered from weak cooperation with the local police. The local police’s loyalty gravitated towards the Philippine National Police (PNP).”

Active executives including Sara Duterte “reinforced local networks that enabled them to enhance their informal control over and bonds with the local PNP.” The result was a mitigation of “the escalatory dynamic emanating from the higher level of the police hierarchy.”

On the other hand, the passive executives had weak control over the local police and allowed them to be directed by the national hierarchy. Consequently “the local police directors opted for a more violent strategy of crime control that satisfied the center’s demands.”

This passage on Kreuzer’s Davao case study is relevant to pointing out the difference between the Duterte father and daughter: “Without the presence of Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, actual practice has become less violent than might have been expected four years ago. Instead, under Sara Duterte-Carpio’s mayorship, the police seem to have shifted to a hardline strategy that nevertheless largely follows bureaucratic rules and laws and thus results in a reduction of police and especially vigilante use of deadly force.”

Nonetheless, Kreuzer qualifies that among the three “active chief executives” in the case studies wherein violence was mitigated, Sara Duterte was the most “repression- and police-oriented.”

We return to the dissimilarity between the conditions facing the anti-Netanyahu coalition and the anti-Duterte coalition. The third difference is obvious. Even though Netanyahu retains a solid base, the majority of Israelis dislike him. Duterte, however, continues to enjoy high trust and satisfaction ratings despite the botched pandemic response and the deep economic recession. It is difficult for a coalition to defeat a hugely popular leader.

What accounts for Duterte’s popularity is a different question altogether. Vice-President Leni Robredo, in her weekly radio show, states with candor and maturity this question:

“Kailangang natin intindihin bakit marami iyong attracted sa Pangulo, bakit ba maraming attracted sa ganitong klaseng mga politiko? (We need to understand why many are attracted to the President, why are many attracted to politicians like him?)

1Sambayan and others identified with the opposition can take the cue from Vice-President Robredo. It is from taking stock of this difficult situation can we learn to advance. It is from recognizing our weaknesses can we learn to craft the appropriate strategy and build a more effective and diverse coalition.

 

Filomeno S. Sta. Ana III coordinates the Action for Economic Reforms.

www.aer.ph

What animals can teach humans about living with stress

BRGFX-FREEPIK

CONSIDERING how bad stress is supposed to be for our bodies, it’s still a confusing concept. Is it worse for our health to have too much work or too little? To have too much responsibility or to be bored? The COVID-19 pandemic triggered lots of stress — even in people who never got the virus. It’s not clear how much the forced isolation, fear or job loss harmed our health.

But scientists are starting to identify the kinds of stress that damage us physically by studying other species — not just lab rats, but animals from whales to iguanas to fish. That research has already generated some understanding of the harms we have imposed on them through captivity, pollution, and underwater noise. It might also help us understand the harms we impose on each other.

Decades ago, scientists established a questionable narrative that stress was associated with “Type A” personalities — people who try to do too much. Much of the foundational research was funded primarily by the tobacco industry. That research came out at a time in the mid-20th century when heart disease had been sharply rising in the United States in parallel with the rise in smoking.

The tobacco-funded research propagated the message was that it wasn’t smoking that was killing people but our busy “modern” lifestyle combined with Type A personalities and behavior. But no reliable, repeatable studies ever backed up a link between heart disease and Type A behavior or personalities.

But others over the years suspected there was something valuable there that needed to be untangled. “It’s been so hard to define stress that people have made proposals that we jettison the word from science,” says Michael Romero, a Tufts University biologist. “For many years people were asking what is a stress response … It’s something that the body initiates in response to a noxious stimulus called a stressor,” he says. “And what is a stressor? That is something that turns on a stress response.” It’s a circular definition.

He says he had a flash of insight early in his career when he traveled to the Arctic — a wet, cold, and seemingly stressful place. It was stressful for him, but not for the native animals. They were adapted to live in that environment.

The current understanding equates stress with environmental conditions more than with behavior. Romero says unhealthy stress in animals comes from extreme weather events such as storms or floods — things that go beyond what they’re adapted to. The other major causes of stress are predators, famine, infectious disease, social conflicts, and human-generated environmental changes — chemical and noise pollution, for example.

A few years ago, he studied marine iguanas in the Galapagos. A group of them survived a terrible oil spill, but those with the most elevated stress hormones were more likely to die months later. Another study in fish showed that those living downstream of a mining spill showed hormonal changes associated with stress.

In his favorite stress research technique, scientists measure stress hormone levels in Eastern right whales by using dogs to sniff out fresh whale feces, which contain stress hormones (and happen to float for about an hour after being deposited). Those studies revealed that noise and fishing lines create stress, but that whales’ stress levels plummeted in the days that ship traffic subsided, temporarily, after 9/11.

He says stress hormones represent an evolutionary trade-off. They can be lifesaving in an emergency by channeling energy to a fight or flight response.

Most stress-related disease seems to be connected to problems regulating the hormone cortisol, he says, which is an anti-inflammatory substance. This can be beneficial — think of the most effective drug against acute COVID-19, dexamethasone, which is an anti-inflammatory. But anti-inflammatory substances can also suppress the immune system, so a long-term cortisol imbalance can leave an animal more vulnerable to viruses, bacteria, or parasites.

And stress can help animals by shutting down fertility during times when it might be unfavorable to reproduce — when there’s too little food, for example. That’s been documented in humans, too. Women who have recently survived famines or been freed from concentration camps are unlikely to get pregnant.

There’s a popular idea about “the upside of stress” — which is the title of a popular TED talk and book by a psychologist who said she had once been wrong to tell patients to avoid stress.

The problem with that thesis is that if the source of stress is something people can avoid, then it probably isn’t the health-destroying kind of stress that’s killing whales and iguanas, and probably people as well.

Stimulation, challenge, and excitement may be something we humans are adapted to live with — just as those arctic creatures are adapted to extreme cold. As I learned from biologist Lori Marino, a lack of challenge will also stress out and sicken captive marine mammals. When they’re in captivity, she said, people used to think they led “cushy” lives, with abundant food, safety, and no need to work beyond performing in shows. But they die much more often of infectious disease than their wild counterparts even though they usually live in clean, filtered water.

They were clearly suffering psychologically, she says. Captive orcas are known to bash their heads against the walls and shatter their own teeth. “It becomes a situation where there’s really no escape … they are literally bored to death.”

While fewer animals are captured today, those born in captivity are still stressed. They may not know a different life, but evolution shaped them to live in an open ocean surrounded by others of their species — not the solitary confinement of a tank.*

The lesson for us is that it’s not enough to tell people to focus on the positive — or to avoid stress, which looks to be rooted in environmental factors rather than behavior. You might not be stressed by working 80 hours a week if you love what you do. If you hate your job, on the other hand, you can avoid one source of stress by quitting, but might risk replacing it with the stress of being short of money.

But maybe those animals can guide us toward ways to change the way we treat each other. That way we can help each other through the rest of this pandemic and be less vulnerable to the next one.

*The best solution to help already captive whales is to free them into sanctuaries, Morino says. They can’t be dumped back into the sea and survive any more than a city dweller could be dumped alone into a rain forest or desert.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

The TikTok Revolution

MYRIAMMIRA-FREEPIK

TikTok is taking the world by storm and even challenging Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube for social media dominance. Not only is it an engaging platform to pass time, TikTok has proven to be a potent tool for product marketing, image building and driving sales.

For those unaware, TikTok, known as Douyin in China, is a video sharing/social networking service owned by Chinese company, ByteDance. The platform is used to make a variety of short-form videos whose genres span dance, comedy, political commentary, educational clips, entertainment, and personal blogs, among others. Each video has a duration from 15 seconds to one minute.

Between 2019 and 2020, TikTok increased its user base by 582%. In February 2019, TikTok reached its first billion downloads and it took them just eight months to gain another half-billion users. As of April 2020, the app surpassed the two billion mark. It may be approaching 3 billion by now. No surprise, the Chinese app recently beat YouTube and Instagram in the Apple App Store in terms of number of downloads.

TikTok provides the tools and platform for amateur video makers (called “creators”) to publish their work for an international audience. Creators upload their works on the platform with an eye towards garnering engagements. Engagements come in the form of “likes,” comments, and/or followers — the more engagement, the more gravitas a creator carries. This gravitas can be monetized by way of product endorsements, collaborations, and brand ambassadorships. This, on top of royalties from TikTok itself which is about $.02 to $.04 per thousand views, depending on the territory.

The 15-second to one-minute videos are designed to be fast paced and extremely engaging. Unlike Facebook, TikTok algorithms feed you the types of videos you engage with the most and where you spend the most time in. In other words, you are only fed the videos that suit your interest. This is what makes it addicting. Studies show that TikTok users spend an average of 81 minutes per day on the App which they open 16 times a day, on average. Users spend four times more time on TikTok than they do on Instagram. TikTok is presently available in some 155 countries and territories.

Sixty-two percent TikTok users are aged 10 to 29 years old. This age demographic represents the largest market for consumer goods. They are highly impressionable and particularly conscious about trends. This makes TikTok an ideal marketing platform for companies engaged in fashion (apparel, accessories, and footwear), cosmetics, gadgets, trendy food products, and lifestyle products. The caveat, however, is that in this segment, trends change rapidly and product preferences tend to be fickle.

Marketers of consumer goods can penetrate the world of TikTok by collaborating with creators. Creators are selected by how the tonality, mood, and theme of their videos match the values of the product or brand. Of course, number of followers weighs heavy on the equation too. Authenticity sells, hence, a video has a higher probability of going viral if there is a match between the creator’s personality and that of the brand.

The cost to collaborate depends on the creator’s number of followers, his/her reputation, and country of origin. As a point of reference, a local advertising agency quoted a fee of P75,000 per video for a Filipino A-list celebrity to feature a product on his TikTok. Some A-listers in the US, Europe, and South Korea charge an upfront fee plus a royalty computed as a percentage of gross revenues for the duration of the campaign.

Creators prefer long term relationships rather than one-off engagements. Hence, it is more cost efficient to negotiate “brand ambassadorships” with creators whereby they feature the product or brand not only on TikTok but also on their other social media platforms. In the Philippines, it is common to include personal appearances at special events as well. In a brand ambassadorship arrangement, however, the brand’s image becomes intertwined with the image of the creator himself. This is why an eject clause is often included in the contract in case of untoward events.

Apart from fair compensation, what matters to TikTok creators is the artistic freedom to conceptualize and create their videos. When working with a creator, companies are advised not to be over-prescriptive nor should they bind the creator with strict guidelines. The less parameters, the better. Creators must be given the license to create since the most effective videos — those that go viral — are those that appear organic.

American TikTok consultants Mavrck, advises creators and product promoters to make TikTok’s algorithm work to your advantage. Captions, keywords, and hashtags play an import role in how often and to whom the video is to be channeled to. Interestingly, the choice of background music and/or sound effects determines frequency of exposure too. Trending music get higher exposure.

Sound shouldn’t be an afterthought, says Mavrck. Unlike other social media platforms, music and sound are inherent to the TikTok experience. Mavrck advises brand promoters to work with creators to consider the best approach for sounds. This can drastically change how the brand is perceived.

TikTok is all about starting and promulgating trends. Mavrck advises that videos be made to pique emotions towards social causes. Starting and promulgating a movement helps to increase engagements.

Startup brands that have been the early adaptors of TikTok have grown large enough to challenge mainstream brands in their local markets. For instance, Vessi Shoes of Canada achieved instant fame and tremendous sales growth on the back of its videos that give away free shoes for singing duets. International restaurant chain, Chipotle Mexican Grill, achieved brand awareness and sales growth for their “cool” testimonials and cooking demonstrations. Elf Cosmetics of California is now a hot brand after they commissioned a song specifically for a TikTok campaign. The song, which takes inspiration from Kash Doll’s hit “Ice Me Out” and is called “Eyes Lips Face.” These new brands are challenging traditional market leaders like Vans shoes, McDonalds, and L’Oreal, all of whom are now scrambling to get a piece of the TikTok market. Early adaptors in the Philippines include Pocofino Coffee, Belo Clinics, and Shopee.

Times have changed and so have the platforms that influence our consumer behavior. In just five years, TikTok has become an effective marketing platform that challenges not only Facebook and Instagram but TV and radio itself. It should be a part of every consumer brand’s marketing strategy, especially those that target the youth.

 

Andrew J. Masigan is an economist

andrew_rs6@yahoo.com

Facebook @AndrewJ. Masigan

Twitter @aj_masigan

US triples coronavirus vaccines for Taiwan with shipment of 2.5M doses

FREEPIK

WASHINGTON — The United States shipped 2.5 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Taiwan on Saturday, more than tripling Washington’s previous allocation of shots for the island, which has faced increasing political and military pressure from China.

Washington, competing with Beijing to deepen geopolitical clout through so-called “vaccine diplomacy,” initially had promised to donate 750,000 doses to Taiwan but increased that number as President Joseph R. Biden’s administration advances its pledge to send 80 million US-made shots around the world.

China, which considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory, has repeatedly offered to send coronavirus vaccines to the island, which has been battling a spike in domestic infections. Taipei has expressed concern about the safety of Chinese shots.

The 2.5 million donated doses of the Moderna, Inc. vaccine were set to leave Memphis, Tennessee, on a flight belonging to Taiwan’s China Airlines early on Saturday and arrive in Taipei on Sunday evening, a senior US administration official told Reuters, noting that the prompt delivery was due to experts from both sides being able to work out regulatory issues.

State Department spokesman Ned Price later tweeted that the plane carrying the vaccines had departed.

“We are not allocating these doses, or delivering these doses, based on political or economic conditions. We are donating these vaccines with the singular objective of saving lives,” the senior official said.

“Our vaccines do not come with strings attached,” the official said, adding Taiwan had “faced unfair challenges in its efforts to acquire vaccines on the global marketplace.”

A deal for Taiwan to purchase vaccines from Germany’s BioNTech SE fell through this year, with Taiwan’s government blaming pressure from Beijing.

China has denied the accusation, saying Taiwan is free to obtain the vaccines through Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co. Ltd., which has a contract to sell BioNTech’s vaccine in China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

“We believe that these attempts by China to block purchases, for political purposes, are reprehensible,” the senior Biden administration official said.

Taiwan is trying to speed up the arrival of the millions of vaccines it has on order, although infections remain comparatively low despite a rise in domestic cases. Only around 6% of Taiwan’s 23.5 million people have received at least one shot of a vaccine regimen.

The US shipment comes at a time when Washington has been working with Taipei to create secure supply chains for strategic items such as computer chips, of which Taiwan is a key producer, that are vital for US automobile manufacturers and other industries.

It also comes after Taiwan announced on Friday that it will allow Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Taiwan’s Foxconn and semiconductor giant TSMC, to negotiate on its behalf for COVID-19 vaccines.

Taiwan Presidential Office spokesman Xavier Chang said Washington’s assistance with vaccines confirmed the “rock-solid friendship between Taiwan and the United States.”

Jonathan Fritz, a senior State Department official, said on Thursday that China had been “very aggressively using vaccine donations as a lever to induce more of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to switch recognition.”

Beijing has steadily whittled down the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, which now stands at just 15 countries.

The United States, which like most countries has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, has watched with alarm the stepped up tensions with Beijing, and Mr. Biden’s administration has vowed to boost ties with the island, which it is required under US law to supply with the means of defense.

Earlier this week Taiwan reported the largest incursion yet by China’s air force, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, into its air defense identification zone. — Reuters

As Iran veers right, ties with Gulf Arabs may hinge on nuclear pact

DUBAI — Gulf Arab states are unlikely to be deterred from dialogue to improve ties with Iran after a hardline judge won the presidency but their talks with Tehran might become tougher, analysts said.

Prospects for better relations between Muslim Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Gulf Arab monarchies could ultimately hinge on progress to revive Tehran’s 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, they said, after Ebrahim Raisi won Friday’s election.

The Iranian judge and cleric, who is subject to US sanctions, takes office in August, while nuclear talks in Vienna under outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a more pragmatic cleric, are ongoing.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime regional foes, began direct talks in April to contain tensions at the same time as global powers have been embroiled in nuclear negotiations.

“Iran has now sent a clear message that they are tilting to a more radical, more conservative position,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political analyst, adding that Mr. Raisi’s election might make improving Gulf ties a tougher challenge. “Nevertheless, Iran is not in a position to become more radical … because the region is becoming very difficult and very dangerous,” he added.

The United Arab Emirates, whose commercial hub Dubai has been a trade gateway for Iran, and Oman, which has often played a regional mediation role, were swift to congratulate Mr. Raisi.

Saudi Arabia has yet to comment.

Mr. Raisi, an implacable critic of the West and an ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate power in Iran, has voiced support for continuing the nuclear negotiations.

“If the Vienna talks succeed and there is a better situation with America, then (with) hardliners in power, who are close to the supreme leader, the situation may improve,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of Gulf Research Center.

LEVERAGE
A revived nuclear deal and the lifting of US sanctions on the Islamic Republic would boost Mr. Raisi, easing Iran’s economic crisis and offering leverage in Gulf talks, said Jean-Marc Rickli, an analyst at Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

Neither Iran nor Gulf Arabs want a return to the kind of tensions seen in 2019 that spiralled after the US killing, under former US President Donald Trump, of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. Gulf states blamed Iran or its proxies for a spate of attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil plants.

A perception that Washington was now disengaging militarily from the area under US President Joseph R. Biden has prompted a more pragmatic Gulf approach, analysts said.

Nevertheless, Mr. Biden has demanded Iran rein in its missile programme and end its support for proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen, demands that have strong support from Gulf Arab nations.

“The Saudis have realized they can no longer rely on the Americans for their security … and have seen that Iran has the means to really put pressure on the kingdom through direct attacks and also with the quagmire of Yemen,” Mr. Rickli said.

Saudi-Iran talks have focused mainly on Yemen, where a military campaign led by Riyadh against the Iran-aligned Houthi movement for over six years no longer has US backing.

The UAE has maintained contacts with Tehran since 2019, while also forging ties with Israel, Iran’s arch regional foe.

Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Britain’s Chatham House, wrote last week that regional conversations, particularly on maritime security, were expected to continue but “can only gain momentum if Tehran demonstrates meaningful goodwill.” — Reuters

Brazil passes half a million COVID-19 deaths; experts say worse ahead

SAO PAULO — Brazil’s death toll from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surpassed 500,000 on Saturday as experts warn that the world’s second-deadliest outbreak may worsen due to delayed vaccinations and the government’s refusal to back social distancing measures.

Only 11% of Brazilians have been fully vaccinated and epidemiologists warn that, with winter arriving in the southern hemisphere and new variants of the coronavirus circulating, deaths will continue to mount even if immunizations gain steam.

Brazil has registered 500,800 deaths from 17,883,750 confirmed COVID-19 cases, according to Health Ministry data on Saturday, the worst official death toll outside the United States. Over the past week, Brazil has averaged 2,000 deaths per day.

COVID-19 continues to devastate countries around the region with the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) reporting 1.1 million new cases of COVID-19 and 31,000 deaths in the Americas last week. PAHO noted upticks in six Mexican states, Belize, Guatemala, Panama and some places in the Caribbean.

PAHO warned that Colombia’s COVID-19 situation is at its worst point yet, with intensive care unit beds filled in major cities.

Experts see the toll in Brazil, already the highest in Latin America, climbing far higher.

“I think we are going to reach 700,000 or 800,000 deaths before we get to see the effects of vaccination,” said Gonzalo Vecina, former head of Brazilian health regulator Anvisa, predicting a near-term acceleration in fatalities.

“We are experiencing the arrival of these new variants and the Indian variant will send us for a loop.”

Vecina criticized far-right President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic, including the lack of a coordinated national response and his skepticism toward vaccines, lockdowns and mask-wearing requirements, which he has sought to loosen.

Thousands of Brazilians protested against Mr. Bolsonaro’s management of the pandemic in nationwide demonstrations on Saturday, blaming the administration for the high death toll and calling for the president’s ouster.

Raphael Guimaraes, a researcher at Brazilian biomedical center Fiocruz, said delays in the vaccination program in Latin America’s most populous nation meant its full effects would not be felt until September or later.

Mr. Guimaraes warned that Brazil could revisit scenes from the worst of its March-April peak, when the country averaged 3,000 deaths per day.

“We are still in an extremely critical situation, with very high transmission rates and hospital bed occupancy that is still critical in many places,” he said.

Last week, new confirmed cases in Brazil accelerated to more than 70,000 per day on average, edging past India for the most in the world.

Vaccination will be crucial in beating the virus in Brazil, since the country has failed to reach a consensus on social distancing and masks, said Ester Sabino, an epidemiologist at the University of Sao Paulo.

“We really need to increase vaccination very quickly,” she said.

However, evidence from neighboring Chile, which like Brazil has relied overwhelming on a vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech, suggests it may be months before mass immunization will effectively curb transmission.

Nearly half of Chileans have been vaccinated, but their capital Santiago just went back into lockdown as cases surged again to near peak levels.

Brazil will need to inoculate some 80 million people to reach Chile’s current per capita vaccination levels.

That will require a more consistent supply of vaccines and ingredients in Brazil, which have been spotty in recent months, as imports from China were delayed after Mr. Bolsonaro antagonized Beijing with comments perceived as anti-Chinese. — Reuters

Airlines, holiday companies ramp up pressure on Britain to ease travel rules

LONDON — Britain’s airlines and holiday companies are planning a “day of action” on Wednesday to ramp up pressure on the government to ease travel restrictions, with just weeks to go before the start of the peak summer season.

Travel companies, whose finances have been stretched to breaking point during the pandemic, are desperate to avoid another summer lost to COVID-19. But with Britain’s strict quarantine requirements still in place that now looks likely.

As the clock ticks down to July, Europe’s biggest airline Ryanair and Manchester Airports Group on Thursday launched legal action to try to get the government to ease the rules before the industry’s most profitable season starts.

On Wednesday, June 23, pilots, cabin crew and travel agents will gather in Westminster, central London, and at airports across Britain to try to drum up support.

Britain’s aviation industry has been harder hit by the pandemic than its European peers, according to data published by pilots trade union BALPA on Sunday.

That showed daily arrivals and departures into the United Kingdom were down 73% on an average day earlier this month compared to before the pandemic, the biggest drop in Europe. Spain, Greece and France were down less than 60%.

UK airports were also badly affected, with traffic in and out of London’s second busiest airport Gatwick down 92%, according to the data.

Time is running out for the industry, said the union.

“There is no time to hide behind task forces and reviews,” said BALPA general secretary Brian Strutton.

“BALPA is demanding that the UK Government gets its act together and opens the US routes and European holiday travel destinations that it has blocked with no published evidence at all.”

Over 45,000 jobs have already been lost in UK aviation, with estimates suggesting that 860,000 aviation, travel and tourism jobs are being sustained only by government furlough schemes. — Reuters

UAE to suspend entry from three countries, Dubai updates travel protocols

CAIRO — The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will suspend travelers from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Namibia from entering the country on national and foreign flights, effective 23:59 p.m. on Monday, June 21, state news agency WAM reported on Saturday, citing a statement by the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA).

The GCAA said the restrictions would also include transit passengers, with the exception of transit flights travelling to the UAE and bound for those countries.

Cargo flights between those countries and the UAE will continue, as usual, the statement added.

It said the restrictions were being introduced to limit the spread of COVID-19.

The GCAA added that exemptions to its decision include: UAE nationals, their first-degree relatives, diplomatic missions, official delegations, business jets — after getting prior approvals — and golden and silver residency permit holders, in addition to those who work essential jobs.

Those who are exempted will still have to take a PCR test at the airport and enter a mandatory 10-day quarantine.

Separately, Dubai’s Supreme Committee of Crisis and Disaster Management said on Saturday it would allow travellers from South Africa, who have received two doses of a UAE-approved vaccine, to enter Dubai starting from June 23, WAM said.

Travelers from India, who have valid residence visas and have received two doses of a UAE-approved vaccine, will also be allowed in the emirate.

Meanwhile, travellers from Nigeria must only present a negative PCR test taken 48 hours prior to departure and will also undergo another PCR test on arrival in Dubai, WAM added. — Reuters

Taiwanese staff to leave Hong Kong office in ‘one China’ row

XANDREASWORK-UNSPLASH

TAIPEI — Taiwanese staff working at the island’s representative office in Hong Kong will begin leaving the Chinese-run city from Sunday, a senior official said, after the government there demanded its officials sign a document supporting Beijing’s claim to Taiwan. 

Chinese-ruled Hong Kong has become another bone of contention between Taipei and Beijing, especially after Taiwan lambasted a security law imposed on Hong Kong by Beijing and began welcoming Hong Kongers to settle on the island. 

Lin Fei-fan, deputy secretary general of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said only local staff would remain at the office. 

“This is because the Chinese Communist Party and the Hong Kong government continue to force our personnel stationed in Hong Kong to sign a ‘one China commitment letter’ to recognize ‘one China,’” he said on his Facebook page. 

“As a political prerequisite for the visa renewal, we will of course not accept it!” 

China sees democratically ruled Taiwan as part of “one China” and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. 

Mr. Lin said Taiwan would never accept “one China” or “one country, two systems,” Beijing’s way of running Hong Kong under Chinese sovereignty it hopes to one day apply to the island. 

A senior Taiwan official familiar with the matter told Reuters seven Taiwan officials will return on Sunday afternoon, with the last remaining official to come back after visa expiry next month. 

In a statement earlier on Sunday, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said that since July 2018 the Hong Kong government has “repeatedly set unreasonable political conditions for staff visas for our Hong Kong office, demanding the signing of a ‘One China Commitment Letter.’” 

Starting from Monday, the Hong Kong office will “adjust its business handling method,” it added, saying the office will maintain “necessary operations.” 

Taiwanese staff will not sign any such “one China” letter, it added. 

Last month, Hong Kong suspended operations at its Taiwan representative office, blaming Taipei’s “gross” interference in internal affairs, including with its offer to assist “violent” protesters, accusations Taiwan rejected. 

Macau’s government followed suit on Wednesday. — Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee/Reuters  

Rohingya artists tackle COVID-19 fears as refugees wait for vaccines

UNSPLASH

DHAKA — Busy with his brushes beneath a tarpaulin roof, Rohingya artist Ansar Ullah works on a mural depicting a giant vial of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine towering over the ramshackle homes of the world’s largest refugee settlement in Bangladesh. 

More than 700,000 Rohingya who fled Myanmar in 2017 live in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, where a vaccination drive scheduled to start in March has been postponed indefinitely due to delays in supplies from the COVAX program, the United Nations said. 

COVID-19 cases have remained relatively low despite a recent uptick, but the artists said many refugees have misconceptions about the coronavirus vaccines, which they aim to allay through their work. 

“Firstly, we hope someone or some organization sees this painting and helps us get vaccines. Our camps are crowded and we need them the most,” Mr. Ullah, 26, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation by phone. 

“There are also fears about the vaccine in our camps. Some are scared they might die or that their health might worsen because of the injection. We want to address these rumors, so that when the vaccine does come, everybody takes it,” he added. 

Painted ahead of Sunday’s World Refugee Day by a dozen artists, the mural also depicts a refugee receiving the jab and a man using a megaphone to challenge vaccine hesitancy and encourage camp residents to get vaccinated as soon as possible. 

“Fear and stigma around COVID-19 has proven to be a major barrier to people getting tested,” Louise Donovan, a spokesperson for the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said by e-mail. 

“Hence major efforts are being undertaken to ensure that refugees have adequate information when the vaccination campaign will begin,” she added. 

Mr. Ullah and his fellow artists are supported by New York-based nonprofit Artolution, and their project is the latest in a series of arts-based initiatives aimed at tackling issues in the camps — from gender-based violence to mental health concerns. 

THE WEDDING SINGER
Rohingya singer Nabi Hossain used to perform at weddings back home in Myanmar, but last year the 50-year-old visited homes around the camps to sing songs about the importance of wearing face masks and respecting social distancing. 

“The same messages are given by authorities through megaphones, but people understand the messages better through music,” said Mr. Hossain, 50, who was forced to leave for Bangladesh after his village was destroyed during a military crackdown. 

UN investigators later concluded that Myanmar’s military campaign was executed with “genocidal intent.” Myanmar denies that, saying the army was battling an insurgency. 

While most of Mr. Hossain’s family made it safely across the border, two of his sisters who lived in another village were killed. 

Mr. Hossain said he still grieved for his sisters, but that singing songs about them brought some relief. 

“It’s not just me. Many Rohingya have lost their relatives. They ask me to sing about them. They cry when I sing about those days. But they also laugh when I sing happy songs. Some of them even record the songs and take them back,” he added. 

Max Frieder, executive director and co-founder of Artolution, said he had witnessed “massive improvements” in the mental health of the artists he has worked with in recent years. 

“The shifts we’ve seen are not always quantitative, but qualitative … We’ve seen our artists, many of whom have had traumatizing experiences, go from becoming victims to survivors to becoming agents of social change,” he said. 

Numerous murals adorn the plastic and bamboo structures at the camps in Cox’s Bazar, a city in southeastern Bangladesh, and many contain broader references to Rohingya culture. 

One shows an elephant crossing the river Naf, which thousands of Rohingya had to pass as they fled Myanmar four years ago, and being welcomed by a rooster symbolizing Bangladesh. 

Even when the artists work in partnership with UN agencies and are given set themes, camp residents come up with the ideas for the murals — often after a discussion about key social issues with other members of the community, Mr. Frieder said. 

‘MUST FOR SURVIVAL’
Before the pandemic, theater was widely used in the camps to highlight residents’ concerns, too. 

The Bangladesh Institute of Theatre Arts (BITA), a nonprofit, organized more than 1,200 plays on issues including trafficking, drug abuse and early marriage, and the entity’s executive director, Sisir Dutta, said they had raised awareness. 

“Take the trafficking cases. Initially many adolescents didn’t even know the term, let alone the dangers. But when they could visualize it, they understood how brokers worked and how their life could be in danger,” he said. 

Many arts-based projects have seen their activities reduced during the pandemic, said Ms. Donovan, but she added that the UNHCR aimed to boost community-led art projects later in the year in partnership with groups like Artolution. 

Another of the COVID-19 mural painters, Ayla Akter, 18, said the artistic initiatives were “a must for survival” in the camps. 

“As long as we sit together and paint, life in the camp feels really good,” she said. “I don’t really have anything else to look forward to. This gives my mind peace.” — Naimul Karim/ Thomson Reuters Foundation 

French far-right tests voters’ appetite in regional elections

Image via Rémi Noyon/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

PARIS — French voters go to the polls on Sunday in regional elections that will test the appeal of far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s softened image less than a year before the next presidential election. 

Coming after a grueling year and a half of lockdowns, curfews and restrictions, Sunday’s first round is likely to prove dire for President Emmanuel Macron, whose party is projected to win none of mainland France’s 13 regions. 

Boosted by a resurgence of law-and-order issues during the campaign, despite the fact French regions have no police powers, Le Pen is hoping to capitalize on a rebrand that has seen her ditch promises of “Frexit” and inflammatory rhetoric. 

“She appears less extreme in the eyes of the French, less dangerous for democracy, than she did a decade ago,” Brice Teinturier, an analyst with pollster IPSOS told Reuters. 

Her best chance is in the south of France, the region around Marseille and Nice, where one of her lieutenants, a former conservative minister, is projected by one opinion poll as winning the race even if all parties rally against him. 

Gaining one region, for the first time ever, would give Ms. Le Pen a major boost less than a year before presidential elections, and would be a slap in the face for Mr. Macron, who has painted himself as a bulwark against the far-right. 

The far-right is also likely to do well in two other regions, around Calais in the north and in Burgundy, helped by low turnout in a country whose attention is shifting to summer holidays to forget the pandemic. 

In the deindustrialized north, the incumbent and frontrunner to become the conservatives’ candidate in the presidential election, Xavier Bertrand, is facing Ms. Le Pen’s party spokesman and Mr. Macron’s justice minister. 

Whether Mr. Macron’s party reaches the 10% threshold will determine if it can force Mr. Bertrand into an alliance to defeat the far-right, which would undermine his pitch as Mr. Macron’s opponent-in-chief in 2022. 

However, a win for Mr. Bertrand would bolster his chances of becoming the conservatives’ presidential candidate. Mr. Macron aides see the one-time health minister as a rival who would erode the president’s center-right voting base. 

Results of Sunday’s first round will send parties into frantic backroom dealing for two days to strike alliances ahead of June 27’s final round. — Reuters

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