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More reforms needed to support investment liberalization — economist

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

FOLLOW-UP REFORMS are needed to build on the progress made in opening the economy up to foreign investment and ensure that the Philippines becomes a viable investment destination for the long haul, an Ateneo de Manila economist said.

“All these steps are intended to attract foreign investors into the country,” Economics Professor Leonardo A. Lanzona said in a Viber message. “The crucial question is whether we have instituted enough reforms to make the country attractive.”

He was referring to recent laws easing foreign ownership restrictions in industries like telecommunications, railways, and retail.

However, he cited workforce skills and technical proficiency as a possible deal-breaker for foreign investors, even when they are allowed to take full ownership of more types of companies, making any gains in investment unsustainable.

“Unless these questions are addressed, capital will increase, but eventually diminishing returns will emerge. Capital formation is necessary, but it will not be sufficient.”

Mr. Lanzona said there is some uncertainty surrounding the government’s 7-9% growth target this year, because many micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were rendered “no longer viable” by the pandemic.

Mr. Lanzona said the reforms should center on stepping up the pace of technological adoption and the corresponding upskilling of the workforce.

“We need to have policy of technological change so that investors are induced to create the appropriate technology suited for our resources,” he said. “Technological innovation should not just be the responsibility of the government, the private sector needs to take part in it.”

“Second, we need to have a policy of skill development and employment creation. This will ensure that benefits of the reforms will reach the poor.”

“Third, institutions should be created to maximize technological change.”

“The structural reforms initiated by this government has to create better and more efficient enterprises to replace this,” Mr. Lanzona added. “But without the reforms I indicated, this objective (7-9% GDP target) will not be reached.”

On Sunday, the National Economic and Development Authority said in a statement that Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua is projecting a return to pre-pandemic growth levels by this year.

He cited the amendments to the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, the Public Service Act, and the Foreign Investment Act, liberalizing investment in many industries.

In addition, he also said that the 10-point policy agenda, which is the government’s approach to reviving the economy, centers on accelerating the vaccination program, reducing restrictions on foreign and domestic travel, and fast-tracking digitalization.

GDP grew by 5.7% last year, recovering from a contraction of 9.8% in 2020.

The growth outlook is also clouded because of external factors, another Ateneo economist said.

Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, associate director at the Ateneo de Manila University Center for Economic Research and Development, said in an e-mail: “With developed economies adapting to the pandemic, many find themselves experiencing the aftereffect of port congestion and supply chain disruptions leading to delays in the movement of output.”

He said the US economy is currently being overwhelmed by supply shortages, high wages, and pressures from rising oil prices. These effects are expected to linger due to the extra pressure exerted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s zero-COVID policy, which is hindering factory output.

“At the same time, higher prices are exerting upward pressure on wages,” Mr. Peña-Reyes said. “The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has no recourse but to eventually follow suit. Higher interest rates will affect the recovery efforts of many small and medium enterprises that will have to pay more for loans.”

BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said last month that a rate hike could be in the cards by June, when more data on economic growth and employment are available to prove that the recovery is more firmly established.

The more US interest rates increase, more funds will be attracted back to US markets and away from the Philippines, thereby weakening the peso.

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points, the highest in 22 years.

“This could significantly affect our trade, which depends heavily on imports,” Mr. Peña-Reyes added. “Most likely, we will also import inflation.” — Tobias Jared Tomas

A valid assessment emanates from a valid authority

Yesterday’s election was a defining moment for all Filipinos as voters selected the country’s next leaders. The sovereignty of the people manifested itself once again, with hopes high that elected government officials and representatives embody their aspirations and dreams. Representatives of the people are there with a mandate from the people. Thus, whenever an elected official exceeds the authority delegated to him, he acts without legitimacy, and such authority may be withdrawn.

The same is true in tax assessment cases — the BIR’s power exercised without authority is void. Thus, an assessment without a valid Letter of Authority (LoA) cannot prosper and must be withdrawn.

An LoA is the authority given to the appropriate revenue officer assigned to perform assessment functions. It empowers and enables the revenue officer to examine the books of account and other accounting records of a taxpayer for the purpose of collecting the correct amount of tax.

As set forth in Section 6 (A) of the Tax Code, as amended, the authority to examine and assess the taxpayer for the correct amount of tax is restricted only to the CIR or his duly authorized representatives such as the Deputy Commissioner, Assistant Commissioners (ACIRs) and Head Revenue Executive Assistant (HREA).

However, by way of exception, Section 10 (c) of the Tax Code, as amended, allows the Revenue Regional Directors to issue an LoA in favor of revenue officers performing assessment functions in their respective region and district offices for the examination of any taxpayer within such region. Thus, the issuance of an LoA is premised on the fact that the examination of a taxpayer who has already filed his tax returns is a power that statutorily belongs only to the CIR himself or his duly authorized representatives. Therefore, before any revenue officer can conduct an examination or assessment, there must be a grant of authority, in the form of an LoA. In the absence of such an authority, the assessment or examination is a nullity.

In a recent Court of Tax Appeals (CTA) decision (CIR vs. EDS Manufacturing, Inc., CTA EB No. 2411, promulgated on April 22, 2022), the CTA nullified the Final Decision on Disputed Assessment issued against the taxpayer and cancelled the tax assessment worth P223.8 million of the taxpayer because the names of the revenue officers who actually examined and recommended the PAN were not found in the LoA.

The CTA held that the LoA is the concrete manifestation of the grant of authority bestowed by the Commissioner of Internal Revenue (CIR) or his authorized representatives to the revenue officers. The LoA gives notice to the taxpayer that it is under investigation for possible deficiency tax assessment and at the same, it authorizes or empowers a designated revenue officer to examine, verify, and scrutinize a taxpayer’s books and records in relation to internal revenue tax liabilities for a particular period. Hence, the absence of such an authority renders the assessment or examination a patent nullity.

The CTA emphasized that the issuance of a valid LoA by the CIR or his duly authorized representatives in favor of revenue officers performing assessment functions, except when the examination is conducted by the CIR himself, or the BIR officials duly authorized by law, is a pre-requisite for the validity of their tax examination and assessment. It stated that a LoA is not a general authority to any revenue officer. It is a special authority granted to a particular revenue officer. Hence, the claim of the petitioner CIR that the continuation of the examination of a taxpayer may be re-assigned to another revenue officer and group supervisor within the same RDO without issuing a new LoA is devoid of merit. 

The CTA explained that the practice of reassigning or transferring revenue officers who are the original authorized officers named in the LoA, and subsequently substituting them with new revenue officers who do not have a separate LoA issued in their name, is in effect a usurpation of the statutory power of the CIR or his duly authorized representatives. Since the memorandum of assignment, referral memorandum, or such other internal document of the BIR directing the reassignment or transfer of revenue officers is typically signed by the revenue district officer or other subordinate official, and not signed or issued by the CIR or his duly authorized representatives, such issuance and its subsequent use as a proof of authority to continue the audit or investigation supplants the functions of the LoA since it seeks to exercise a power that belongs exclusively to the CIR himself or his duly authorized representatives.

Further, the CTA also disagreed with the petitioner’s assertion that a valid LoA only applies to revenue officers in the revenue district office (RDO). It did not accept the contention of the petitioner that since revenue officers who performed the audit and examination were under the Office of the Commissioner of Internal Revenue (OCIR)-Large Taxpayer Service (LTS), the issuance of a valid LoA may be dispensed with. It pointed out that the necessity for the issuance of an LoA is premised on the persons who would perform the audit and examination of the taxpayer and is not based on the office where the revenue officers is stationed or detailed.

This has been consistently held by the court, and in the case of CIR vs. McDonalds Philippines Realty Corp., G.R. 242679, promulgated on May 10, 2021 (McDonald Case), no less than the Supreme Court emphasized the importance of identifying the revenue officer authorized to continue the tax audit or investigation in the LoA. It held that the issuance of an LoA prior to examination and assessment is a requirement of due process and not a mere formality or technicality. As part of due process requirement, taxpayers have the right to know that the revenue officers are duly authorized to conduct the examination and assessment, and this requires that the LoAs must contain the names of the authorized revenue officers. Accordingly, identifying the authorized revenue officers in the LoA is a jurisdictional requirement of a valid audit or investigation by the BIR, and therefore of a valid assessment.

In another case, the CTA in GS MTE Grains Corporation vs. CIR (CTA Case No. 8837 dated March 19, 2018) had the occasion to rule that failure to revalidate the LoA before the expiration of the 120-day period renders the LoA invalid, and the resulting assessment or examination a nullity. Under Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) No. 36-99, the revenue officer is allowed only 120 days from the date of the receipt of the LoA by the taxpayer to conduct the audit and submit the required report of investigation. If the revenue officer is unable to submit the final report of investigation within the 120-day period, he must then submit a Progress Report to the head office and surrender the LoA for revalidation. The CTA, in this case, held that by continuing with the audit beyond the prescribed 120-day period without submission of a Progress Report and without the surrender of the LoA for revalidation, the revenue officer acted without authority and the deficiency tax assessments issued against petitioner, arising from the audit conducted, is void ab initio.

In the exercise of the government’s right to assess, it must, in the first place, ensure that any examination of the taxpayer by the BIR’s revenue officers is properly authorized by those to whom the discretion to exercise the power of examination is given by statute. The power of the State to collect tax must be balanced with the taxpayer’s right to substantial and procedural due process. In balancing the scales between the power of the State to tax and the constitutional rights of a citizen to due process of law, the scales must tilt in favor of the individual, for a citizen’s right is amply protected by the Bill of Rights under the Constitution. Thus, while taxation is the lifeblood of the government, the power to tax must be exercised reasonably and in accordance with the prescribed procedures.

For the taxpayer, it would be helpful to always be mindful to check the validity of the LoA, that is, a LoA that emanates from a valid authority, for it pays to know that a void assessment bears no fruit.

Let’s Talk Tax is a weekly newspaper column of P&A Grant Thornton that aims to keep the public informed of various developments in taxation. This article is not intended to be a substitute for competent professional advice.

 

Paraluman Andres-Neagoe is a director from the Tax Advisory & Compliance division of P&A Grant Thornton, the Philippine member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd.

pagrantthornton@ph.gt.com

Police records less election-related violence so far this year 

Tighter security measures have been put in place in Cotabato City following several election-related incidents on the weekend before the May 9 elections. — POLICE REGIONAL OFFICE-BANGSAMORO REGION 

REPORTED incidents during this years election period, which started in the second week of January, reached 71 including 16 that have been confirmed to be election-related as of Monday morning, according to the police.  

Philippine National Police Spokesperson Jean S. Fajardo said in a media briefing that of the total, 41 have been determined to be non-election related while 14 are still being investigated.   

An election-related violence is defined as an incident involving candidates or their supporters and family members, and the motive is to disrupt or influence the electoral exercise, Ms. Fajardo explained.   

She said this years record is still lower than the 133 confirmed election-related incidents in the 2016 presidential election and 60 in the 2019 mid-term polls.  

Police Major General Valerian T. De Leon, deputy commander of the police election task force, said in the same briefing that the overall situation across the country remained peaceful and they were focusing on areas declared under the Commission on Electionscontrol. 

These are: Pilar in Abra province; the entire province of Misamis Occidental; Marawi City and the towns of Tubaran, Malabang, and Maguing in Lanao del Sur; and the towns of Buluan, Datu Odin Sinsuat, Datu Piang, Mangudadatu, Pandag, and Sultan Kudarat in Maguindanao.   

Cotabato City, the political center of the Bangsamoro region, has also been placed under tight watch following several election-related incidents over the weekend up to Monday morning.   

About 500 trained police officers have been assigned to take over the functions of the electoral boards in several voting precincts of the city, where tensions have been high due to intense political rivalry among candidates.   

The Bangsamoro regional police office, in a statement on Monday, said security forces have also increased the checkpoints and patrol operations around the city.”   

Further, intensified police visibility and Quick Reaction Teams were also in placed for immediate response when necessary,it said. MSJ 

DepEd condemns killing of teacher in Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental on eve of election 

DEPED PHILIPPINES

THE DEPARTMENT of Education has condemned the killing on Sunday night of a teacher designated to serve in the May 9 elections in Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental in central Philippines.  

Though it is unclear yet if such brutality was election-related, we denounce any acts of violence and injustice towards our teachers, who have dedicated their lives to the Filipino children and are now selflessly serving the country in this years election,the department said in a statement on Monday.    

Education Undersecretary Alain Del B. Pascua, the departments Election Task Force chair, is coordinating with field offices and law enforcement agencies for the investigation and assistance to the teachers family.   

Himamaylan Mayor Raymund I. Tongson, in a statement on his Facebook page late Sunday, said he has ordered the local police force to exhaust all efforts to arrest the killers.”  

A report from the city police office identified the victim as Mercy B. Miguel, a teacher at the Himamaylan National High School.   

Initial police investigation showed the victim and her husband were on board a motorcycle on their way home when they stopped at a crossing to move stones that were on the road. They were then fired upon by still unidentified suspects.  

The city is not categorized as an election hotspot. — MSJ

Lacson to quit politics if he loses presidential race

PRESIDENTIAL aspirant Senator Panfilo M. Lacson, Sr. — PING LACSON OFFICIAL FB PAGE

PRESIDENTIAL aspirant Senator Panfilo M. Lacson, Sr. on Monday said he does not plan on continuing his political career if he loses in the May 9 election.   

Mr. Lacson, in a media interview after casting his vote in his hometown Imus, said he is not interested in holding a Cabinet position under the next administration.  

No. I wont even speculate but like I said, Im more inclined not to accept anything anymore,he said in a mix of English and Filipino based on a transcript sent by his team.   

Under Philippine law, losing candidates may be appointed to a government position a year after the electoral exercise.  

The senator, a former police chief, said he feels he has done enough public service.   

Its already been 50 years and that’s it for me as far as government service,he said. But, as I said, it depends on the conditions, he added.   

The conditions, he said, includebaseline principles,which will not sacrifice the values he protected in his years as a public servant.   

If that will be compromised in exchange for a position as Cabinet secretary, then never mind, I will not.”  

When asked who among his rivals matched his principles, he said no one. 

In any case, Mr. Lacson said he expects that all animosities between candidates will be cast aside after the elections.  

It is understandable that during the campaign, someone will come out with a statement against any or some of the candidates, but that is normal. Now that it is over, I hope all of it will be forgotten after today,he said.  

Let us be one nation, one people again,he added.  

If he does retire from politics, the senator said his plans include farming in Silang, another town in his home province Cavite. Alyssa Nicole O. Tan 

Philippine labor force situation

The country’s unemployment rate in March eased on a monthly basis to its lowest since the start of the coronavirus pandemic due to further loosening of mobility restrictions, but job quality worsened to a four-month high. Read the full story.

Philippine labor force situation

World determined to make sure Putin loses in Ukraine — Trudeau

CANADIAN Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky attend a news conference, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine, May 8, 2022. — REUTERS

KYIV — The world will do everything possible to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin loses his war in Ukraine, including keeping Moscow under sanctions for years, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said late on Sunday.

“What Putin needs to understand is that the West is absolutely determined and resolved to stand against what he is doing,” Mr. Trudeau told Reuters in an interview.

“His illegal war, his escalations, his crossing of red lines by choosing to further invade Ukraine means that we will do as a world everything we can to make sure that he loses.”

Speaking on the sidelines of an unannounced visit to Ukraine for talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he calls a friend, Mr. Trudeau said Mr. Putin is making a terrible mistake.

“He is inflicting atrocities upon civilians, and it’s all something that he is doing because he thought he could win. But he can only lose,” Mr. Trudeau said when asked what he would tell Mr. Putin on the eve of Russia’s commemorations of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, which Moscow calls the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.

On Sunday, Europe commemorated the 77th anniversary of the surrender of the Nazis. Russia celebrates the victory on May 9. Nazi Germany’s unconditional surrender came into force at 11:01 p.m. on May 8, 1945, which was May 9 in Moscow.

Trudeau also echoed a statement from the Group of Seven issued earlier on Sunday, following a video call of G7 leaders with Zelensky, on how Mr. Putin’s “actions bring shame on Russia and the historic sacrifices of its people” during World War II.

“Quite frankly, on Victory in Europe Day, when we all celebrate the victory over fascism of so many decades ago,” Mr. Trudeau said, “Vladimir Putin is bringing shame upon the memory of the millions of Russians who fought and died in the fight for freedom and the fight against fascism.”

Mr. Putin, Russia’s paramount leader since 1999 who will preside over the anniversary celebrations on Monday, in recent years has used Victory Day to needle the West from a tribute in Red Square before a parade of troops, tanks, rockets and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Earlier, Mr. Trudeau said Canada will provide new weapons and equipment for Ukraine and will reopen its embassy in Kyiv, the country’s capital.

Mr. Putin says that he launched a “special military operation” on Feb. 24 to disarm Ukraine and rid it of anti-Russian nationalism fomented by the West. Ukraine and its allies say Russia launched an unprovoked war.

Mr. Trudeau said all the countries that have imposed sanctions on Moscow, which have taken a steep toll on the Russian economy, are determined to keep them in place as long as necessary, even for years.

“Vladimir Putin cannot upend over 70 years of stability and growth and prosperity for the world and expect to continue to benefit from that stability, growth and prosperity,” he said. — Reuters

Elon Musk’s tweet on Japan doomed by low birthrate provokes anger

A WOMAN smiles between the early flowering cherry blossoms in Kyoto, Japan, March 13, 2020. — REUTERS

TOKYO — An Elon Musk tweet saying Japan would “eventually cease to exist” without a higher birthrate set off a flood of sarcasm and anger on Monday — though much of the angst was aimed at a Japanese government many said did little to address the issue.

Mr. Musk, the head of electric vehicle maker Tesla, Inc., at the weekend tweeted, “At risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world.”

The comment hit a nerve among Japan watchers and in Japan, whose population peaked in 2008 and has declined since due to its low birthrate to about 125 million as of last year despite government warnings and sporadic attempts to grapple with the issue.

But Japan remains the world’s third-largest economy, host to global heavyweights ranging from car manufacturers to games developers, and is a key link in global semiconductor supply chains.

“What is even the point of tweeting this?” wrote Tobias Harris, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

“The anxieties surrounding Japan’s demographic future is not that ‘Japan will eventually cease to exist’ but rather the profound social dislocations that are occurring as a result of the decline to a lower population level.”

Others noted sluggish birthrates plague many nations besides Japan, including Germany — where Tesla has just opened a new factory — and that Japan was simply being hit first.

But many Japanese commentators said the situation was not surprising and slammed their government for not doing enough to fight it, such as by providing more daycare centers and making it easier for women to return to work after having children.

“They keep saying the birthrate’s falling, but given that the government isn’t taking thorough steps to deal with it, what can we say? Everything they say and do is contradictory,” wrote Twitter user SROFF. “In this environment, who’s going to say ‘Okay, let’s have a child’? I despair for Japan.” — Reuters

China’s sea levels touched new high in 2021, gov’t study shows

SHANGHAI — China’s sea levels reached their highest on record last year, swelled by rising water temperatures and the melting of glaciers and polar icecaps, the government said in a report.

Coastal sea levels were 84 mm (3.3 inches) higher in 2021 than the average over the period from 1993 to 2011, the National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center said in an annual bulletin.

Saturday’s report warned that rising sea levels brought by climate change were having a “continuous impact” on the development of coastal regions, and urged authorities to improve monitoring and bolster early warning and prevention efforts.

The long-term effects of such rise include erosion of coastal ecosystems and the loss of tidal flats, while coastal cities face greater risks of floods and salt tides, said the center, a research unit of the national resources ministry.

Coastal sea levels around China have now risen by an average of 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inch) a year since 1980, higher than the global rate over the period.

Although the temperatures of China’s coastal waters fell slightly in 2021 from the previous year, they were still the third highest on record and 0.84 degrees Celsius above the 1993-2011 average.

Last year, the environment ministry forecast a rise of another 55 mm to 170 mm (2 inches to 7 inches) in coastal water levels during the next 30 years, which would require a greater effort by China to protect its coastline.

Its east coast cities have begun making contingency plans against rising sea levels, with the commercial hub of Shanghai looking into building new drainage tunnels and tidal gates. — Reuters

China says it conducted exercises near Taiwan

REUTERS

SHANGHAI — China’s armed forces carried out another round of exercises near Taiwan last week to improve joint combat operations, the People’s Liberation Army said on Monday, after the Chinese-claimed island reported a spike in activity. 

Taiwan has complained for the past two years about frequent Chinese military activity near it, mostly concentrated in the southern and southwestern part of the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). 

Taiwan’s air force scrambled planes on Friday to warn away 18 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defense zone, and reported further incursions on Saturday and Sunday, though with fewer aircraft. 

The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement that naval and air force assets carried out drills from Friday to Sunday to the east and southwest of Taiwan to “further test and improve the joint combat capability of multiple services and arms.” It did not elaborate. 

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said China deployed bombers, fighters and anti-submarine aircraft. 

No shots were fired and the Chinese aircraft had not been flying in Taiwan’s air space, but in its ADIZ, a broader area Taiwan monitors and patrols that acts to give it more time to respond to any threats. 

Taiwan has raised its alert since Russia invaded Ukraine, wary of China making a similar move, though the government in Taipei has not reported any signs this is about to happen. 

Taking questions in parliament on Monday, Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said China was continuing to pose a threat. 

“But we have the determination to defend our country,” he said. 

Japan last week reported eight Chinese naval vessels, including an aircraft carrier, passed between islands in Japan’s southern Okinawa chain, to the northeast of Taiwan. 

Taiwan also carried out pre-announced missile and other drills off its southern and southeastern coasts last week. 

China has never renounced the use of force to bring democratically ruled Taiwan under its control, and the Taiwan Strait remains a potential military flashpoint. 

Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s 23 million people can decide their future. — Reuters

Judgment Day for Pulse Asia

PHILIPPINE STAR/ RUSSELL PALMA

After every election I write in this space that the results bear out the forecasts of the two major pollsters — Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia (PA). In 2016, not only did I note that the results of the 2016 presidential election validated the two pollsters’ projections, I also wrote that the rankings of all the presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the two polls jibed with how they placed in the actual elections.

I defend election polling when detractors question the integrity of surveys. In 2010, presidential candidates Gilbert Teodoro and Richard Gordon asked how 2,000 respondents in a survey can represent the sentiments of an electorate made up of 50 million voters. Teodoro’s campaign manager said that Teodoro ranked No. 1 in all the universities in which the candidate spoke and that the students who said they will vote for him numbered in the tens of thousands. The late Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago raised the same issue when she ran for president in 2016. Like Teodoro, she ranked first in a survey of university students.

In reaction I wrote that it can also be asked how 10, 20, or even 30,000 university students can reflect the sentiments of 50 million voters or how students from the middle to upper income classes of the national capital region can possibly represent the entire electorate. University students belong to the middle to upper income groups, are 18-22 years old, mostly single, highly educated, well-informed by mass media, and highly politicized. Their choice of candidate differs from the voting preference of the electorate taken as a whole.

This trust in election polling stems from my having worked for Robot Statistics, the first public opinion pollster/market research firm in the country. In fact, it was my first job right after college. It was the Philippine affiliate of Gallup Polls when I was with the firm. I had also earned enough credits in Statistics — as an AB-Commerce student, then as a graduate student of Psychology, and subsequently as an MBA student — to have a good understanding of random sampling, margin of error, and confidence level. (Robot enrolled me in Ateneo’s Graduate School of Psychology as it was then planning to go into motivation research.)

But when the results of the survey conducted by Pulse Asia from Jan. 19 to 24 showed Bongbong Marcos as the preferred presidential candidate of 60% of the respondents and Leni the choice of only 16%, doubts lurked in my mind. In the three elections where Bongbong ran for national office, he got no more than 35% of the votes of the electorate.

When Bongbong first ran for senator in 1995, he got 8,168,788 votes, or 31.7% of the votes cast that year, short of the number of votes needed to land one of the 12 Senate seats to be filled up. He ran again in 2010. He garnered 13,169,634 votes or 34.5%, good enough to win him a Senate seat. When he ran for vice-president in 2016, he got 14,155,314 or 34.5%. But Leni Robredo bested him with her 14,418,817 votes or 35.1%.

Bongbong had not done anything from the elections of 2016 to 2021 to have raised his political stock or gained the admiration, gratitude, or goodwill of the electorate. I asked how he could be preferred by 60% of the respondents when he is running for president against the same person who beat him for the vice-presidency, who is now preferred by only 16%?

Leni as vice-president had not done a bad job for people who voted her vice-president to diminish in number by half. In fact, she did a lot for the people, especially the marginalized, in spite of the fact that President Rodrigo Duterte hindered her efforts to serve the people. In contrast, Bongbong was preoccupied with his electoral protest during the same period.

Some political pundits say Bongbong’s message of “Babangon muli” (“Rise again”) instills nostalgia of the “Golden Age” during his father’s presidency. Bongbong’s army of trolls had flooded social media with narratives of a robust economy, grandiose infrastructure, and lasting peace and order that his father’s reign was. As the youth did not experience life under Martial Law, they believe what they read in social media.

But netizens saturated social media with factual evidence that belie the claim that Ferdinand Marcos’ 20-year rule was the “Golden Age” of Philippine history. Their posts show that his reign was marked by massive corruption, unbridled human rights abuses, and an economy ever on the verge of collapse.

Also, the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) issued a pastoral letter on Feb. 25 that spoke of “blatant and subtle distortion” of history, the trivialization of the People Power Revolution, and the seeding of false information to influence the opinion of the people and to malign and blackmail people. The pastoral letter called attention to “troll farms which sow the virus of lies.”

Detractors of Bongbong have said that even if the narrative of a “Golden Age” were true, it does not necessarily follow that the son can duplicate what his father had achieved. He doesn’t have the brilliant mind, the zeal for work, and the doggedness to finish what he had set out to accomplish — qualities that his father had. He has shown during the campaign that he lacks the oratorical skills or the persuasive power to be able to lead people.

He has been branded a coward for not participating in the Comelec-sponsored debates and for refusing to be interviewed by respected local broadcast journalists and foreign correspondents.

All that bashing seems to have had little effect on his rating in Pulse Asia surveys. In the March 17 to 21 survey, Bongbong’s score was 56%, down by 4% from his 60% in January. That is still 21% higher than the 35% he got in actual elections. The April 16 to 21 survey didn’t reflect any change in the attitudes of people towards him. Fifty-six percent still preferred him over the other candidates.

This almost constant high rating of Bongbong in Pulse Asia’s surveys has been met with skepticism if not criticism, not from politicians who fare badly in election polls, but from respected professional statisticians. Dr. Romulo Virola, former secretary-general of the National Statistical Coordination Board and a professor of Statistics in UP, Diliman, found numerous “flaws” in Pulse Asia’s current election surveys. He pointed out overrepresentation and underrepresentation of certain demographic groups. Such over and under representation of sub-groups could have corrupted the survey results.

Arvin Boller, lecturer at the Ateneo School of Social Science, says not one presidentiable since 1986 has won the votes of the majority of Filipinos. The Pulse Asia surveys show Bongbong could potentially pull it off. He sees three possible reasons for the 56% rating: 1. Bongbong’s campaign is extremely effective; 2. there is a methodical flaw in the conduct of the survey; 3. there is a conspiracy behind the survey results.

Well, we will know today the results of yesterday’s elections. If the Pulse Asia numbers for Bongbong Marcos and Leni Robredo match or approximate closely the results of the elections, then Pulse Asia will be affirmed as a credible forecaster of election outcomes. If the results show a Leni Robredo victory, Pulse Asia will crumble, bringing down with it the entire polling industry.

 

Oscar P. Lagman, Jr. is a retired corporate executive, business consultant, and management professor. He has been a politicized citizen since his college days in the late 1950s.

After the elections

PHILIPPINE STAR/ RUSSELL PALMA

By the time you read this, it would be the day after E-day. The voters would have fulfilled their duty and chosen their candidates. Between now as I write this and then, exactly a week would have lapsed. The mitings de avance haven’t taken place yet. The last-minute frenzied campaigning in “must win” areas are ongoing. So far, it’s been a peaceful campaign, except in cyberspace where fake news, calumny, and uncivil behavior abound. I hope and pray that the overzealous don’t spill blood before, during, and after E-day.

The worrisome time is after the counting. There’s been so much talk about violence, that the losing candidate/s will cry foul and rampage. That’s because the political environment is so poisoned and corrupted that nothing is believable. We steadily slid to reach this abysmal point. Everything’s under suspicion: the vetting process, the candidates, the surveys, the news, the printed ballot, the distribution of ballots, the voting, and the count. Worse, speculating over a violent outcome is enough to place investments on hold and shift capital to safe havens.

Who will emerge victorious? The surveys have consistently shown that presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and his vice-presidential running mate Sara Duterte are the clear leaders. A distant second is the incumbent Vice-President Leni Robredo and her running mate former Senator Kiko Pangilinan. But lately, there has been a counterpoint to the local surveys — Google Trends (GT) — which is touted to be an accurate predictor of political outcomes in various parts of the world since 2004. GT points to a Robredo-Pangilinan vote outcome. Who to believe?

In our obviously polarized, color- and meme-dominated political environment, the partisans of these top two pairs of contenders are being watched closely. Whichever way the needle points, the persistent belief is that supporters of the losing side won’t have it; that violent protests would erupt. Additionally, if the violence gets out of hand, proponents of “RevGov” — basically the rabid supporters of the incumbent administration — would step in with the AFP and PNP (Armed Forces of the Philippines and Philippine National Police) in tow, restore order, and extend their stay indefinitely. Maybe, maybe not.

The Filipino people wield ultimate power exercised through the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches of government. It’s in that context that I scrutinized the personal character and record, vision, priorities, capabilities, personality, preparedness, readiness, and potential for greatness. It’s borne out of duty and responsibility to choose the best one who can be relied upon to uphold and advance our national interests. After six months of observation and assessment, it turned out that the best man was a woman. So, may the best woman win!

In any case, here’s the painful truth and harsh reality: whoever wins the top posts of the land will inherit all the rising external risks, internal crises, and accumulated burdens of the country. Selecting the right mix of Cabinet and Sub-Cabinet team members based on merit, instead of political payback, is essential to their success. They must hit the ground running as soon as they’re declared winners of the 2022 elections. The transition period will be crucial in ensuring a proper handover of the records or paper trail for seamless continuity of public governance.

The rising external risks are: inflation, food and energy supply contraction due to the pandemic, extreme weather, supply chain disruptions, and recessionary pressures amid great power competition in strategic areas of the world. Internal crises could be political instability, the resurgence of violent armed groups, organized crime in the private and public sectors, and rising street crime. The country’s accumulated burdens or inter-generational problems begging for attention and resolution are poverty, injustice, corruption, exclusion, and division.

There’s this viewpoint though that the outcome of our elections is being keenly watched by the great and middle powers in the region, particularly ASEAN, the USA, China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The Philippines is strategically located. So, the belief is that whoever is most influential will have the upper hand in projecting power throughout the Indo-Pacific region. All eyes are on the USA and China, with imaginations running wild as to who would have the better “inside track” on our electoral system to obtain a favorable result. Who knows?

This much I know — there’s much to do in the years ahead just to survive. The quality of our governance and citizenship must be our main agenda. I foresee big trouble requiring us all to unite and focus on a common purpose to protect our national interest, and to look after each other. Perhaps the coming storm will be compelling enough to move us from division to unity, apathy to empathy, self-interest to the common good, pettiness to worthiness. Just like young soldiers in their teens who are thrust into battle and emerge from it as men and women.

Whoever takes over must be risk and crisis management conscious, and organize the teams accordingly to address inherited problems, deal with emerging risks and crises, and pursue its vision and mission. The new administration will need to form multi-disciplinary teams to apply diverse solutions aimed at lifting the nation from its knees. Enough of incompetent political “solutions” for every business, technological, technical, cultural, and social issues confronting us. Enough of that silly posturing as if we’re on top of the situation and know what we’re doing. No mas! (No more!)

The new administration will need an army of implementors backed by a Legislature that will remove, amend, or pass new laws to facilitate the implementation of the Executive’s initiatives to clean house, reorganize, deliver services, and transform mindsets. The years ahead won’t just be about the incoming administration. It will be about us — our preparedness and readiness to face any risk and survive any crisis coming our way in these perilous times, to perform selflessly and emerge from it transformed for the better. We must, for the sake of future generations.

That’s my hope and prayer from this day forward.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.

 

Rafael “Raffy” M. Alunan III is a former governor of the MAP. He is the chair of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations, vice-chair of Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines, Inc., and sits on the boards of other companies as an independent director.

map@map.org.ph

rmalunan@gmail.com

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