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Djokovic’s Olympic bid

It’s easy to point to Novak Djokovic’s participation in the Tokyo Games as a no-brainer. After all, he’s conscious of his place in history, and, having won the first three major tournaments, he has in his hands an opportunity to claim an ultra-rare Golden Slam in an Olympic year. Only living legend Steffi Graf has managed to accomplish it, breezing through upending the competition in each of the sport’s premier events as well as in Seoul. All stars aligned for her in 1988; she was at her peak then, and she took advantage of the fact that tennis was back in the quadrennial meet for the first time in 64 years. And all stars seem to align for him as well, what with the pandemic postponing competition for another summer — just when he’s also at his peak and with the other top condensers sidelined. 

The flipside, of course, is that the spread of the novel coronavirus in Japan and the stringent safety protocols being implemented as a result have made things doubly hard for Djokovic. Forget about the strength — or peck thereof — of the field. He didn’t decide to join the Olympics until the weekend because, his status as the prohibitive favorite notwithstanding, at the top of his mind is the sacrifice he would need to make simply to show up. Nothing in tennis is etched in stone, and especially with no spectators from which he routinely draws inspiration. As he himself noted, “I am not overjoyed about playing with no fans present or about the various coronavirus restrictions effective in Japan.” 

So what made Djokovic decide to throw his proverbial hat in the ring? “It came down to patriotism and my feelings for Serbia,” he said, recounting a conversation he had with Croatian Olympic medalist Blanka Vlašić. “She said that people will only remember who won the medals, not what the conditions were like or whether there were any fans or not.” Precisely, and should he thrive in Tokyo, he will be four-fifths into providing fuel for the argument that he’s the sport’s greatest of all time. First things first, though, and he’s obviously willing to put in the work on the court and off to separate himself from contemporaries Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. 

To be sure, Djokovic doesn’t have a stellar record in the Olympics. He lost in the semifinals to Nadal (2008) and Andy Murray (2012), and his most recent foray in the Games was a one-and-done effort against Juan Martin Del Potro (2016). His record of futility, however, is precisely what underscored the need for him to grab the chance at immortality. He’s the only player to have all nine Masters trophies on his mantel, and he already has the Davis Cup hardware. How could he pass up his date with destiny? Sure, there’s a risk to his plan; the hoops he has to go through in Tokyo could even derail his quest for the United States Open crown. Nonetheless, he understands that the bigger sin lies not in his having tried and failed, but in his not having tried at all.

Twitter temporarily blocks U.S. Republican Greene for COVID-19 posts

REUTERS

Twitter Inc on Monday said it temporarily suspended Republican U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene’s account for tweets which violated the social media’s misinformation policy on COVID-19.

Ms. Greene posted that the coronavirus is not dangerous for non-obese people and those under 65, and that organizations should not force “non-FDA” approved vaccines or masks. These tweets have been labeled as “misleading” by the platform.

The United States is using vaccines made by Pfizer Inc , Moderna Inc and Johnson & Johnson under Food and Drug Administration’s emergency use authorization. None of these vaccines are fully approved but numerous studies have proven their efficacy.

U.S. President Joe Biden has called on the social media companies to take action on vaccine misinformation.

“We took enforcement action on the account @mtgreenee for violations of the Twitter Rules, specifically the COVID-19 misleading information policy,” a Twitter spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

Ms. Greene’s account will remain locked for 12 hours, according to Twitter.

In a video statement on Facebook Live, Ms. Greene acknowledged that she had been temporarily suspended from the platform and blamed the Biden administration for trying to control free speech.

“Remember, last week when our press secretary said the White House is working to stop the spread of (misinformation) because they want to be careful and they want to be in control of the information that is shared about COVID-19 and vaccines, isn’t that concerning?” Ms. Greene said.

The Republican representative has come under fire before for remarks on the pandemic. In June she apologized after comparing COVID-19 mask requirements and vaccinations to the Holocaust that killed 6 million Jews.

In January, Twitter locked Ms. Greene’s account after she sparred with a state election official over voter fraud allegations. – Reuters

Stranded seafarers threaten global supply lines

SHIPS are loaded at a container terminal in Hamburg, Germany, March 29. — REUTERS

LONDON/SINGAPORE — “I’ve seen grown men cry,” says Captain Tejinder Singh, who hasn’t set foot on dry land in more than seven months and isn’t sure when he’ll go home.

“We are forgotten and taken for granted,” he says of the plight facing tens of thousands of seafarers like him, stranded at sea as the Delta variant of the coronavirus wreaks havoc on shore.

“People don’t know how their supermarkets are stocked up.” Mr. Singh and most of his 20-strong crew have criss-crossed the globe on an exhausting odyssey: from India to the United States then on to China, where they were stuck off the con-gested coast for weeks waiting to unload cargo. He was speaking to Reuters from the Pacific Ocean as his ship now heads to Australia.

They are among about 100,000 seafarers stranded at sea beyond their regular stints of typically 3-9 months, according to the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), many without even a day’s break on land. Another 100,000 are stuck on shore, unable to board the ships they need to earn a living on.

The Delta variant devastating parts of Asia — home to many of the world’s 1.7 million commercial seafarers — has prompted many nations to cut off land access to visiting crews, in some cases even for medical treatment. Just 2.5% of seafarers — one in every 40 — have been vaccinated, the ICS estimates.

The United Nations describes the situation as a humanitarian crisis at sea and says governments should class seafarers as essential workers. Given ships transport around 90% of the world’s trade, the deepening crisis also poses a major threat to the supply chains we rely on for everything from oil and iron to food and electronics.

Bulk carrier master Mr. Singh, from northern India, is not optimistic of going ashore anytime soon; his last stint at sea lasted 11 months. He said his crew of Indians and Filipinos were living out of cabins measuring about 15ft by 6ft. “Being at sea for a very long time is tough,” he says, adding that he had heard reports of seafarers killing themselves on other ships.

“The most difficult question to answer is when kids ask, ‘Papa when you are coming home?’,” he said from his vessel, which was recently carrying coal.

India and the Philippines, both reeling from vicious waves of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), account for more than a third of the world’s commercial seafarers, said Guy Platten, secretary general of the ICS, which repre-sents over 80% of the world’s merchant fleet.

“We are seriously disturbed that a second global crew change crisis is looming large on the horizon,” he told Reuters, referring to a months-long stretch in 2020 when 200,000 seafarers on ships were unable to be relieved.

PEOPLE ARE DESPERATE

In a snapshot of the situation, this month almost 9% of merchant sailors have been stuck aboard their ships beyond their contracts’ expiry, up from just over 7% in May, according to data compiled by the Global Maritime Forum non-profit group from 10 ship managers together responsible for over 90,000 seafarers.

The maximum allowed contract length is 11 months, as stipulated by a U.N. seafaring convention.

In normal times, around 50,000 seafarers rotate on and 50,000 rotate off ships per month on average but the numbers are now a fraction of that, according to industry players, though there are no precise figures.

The new crew crisis stems from restrictions imposed by major maritime nations across Asia including South Korea, Taiwan and China, which are home to many of the world’s busiest container ports. Requirements range from mandatory testing for crews who come from or have visited certain countries, to outright bans on crew changes and berthing operations.

“Asia really is struggling and the only countries you can go about routine crew changes to some extent are Japan and Singapore,” said Rajesh Unni, chief executive of Synergy Marine Group, a leading ship manager responsible for 14,000 seafarers.

“The issue is that we have one set of people who desperately want to go home because they have finished their tenure, and another set of people onshore that are desperate to get back onboard to earn a living.”

GLOBAL BRANDS, BEWARE

The crisis has led to almost half of commercial seafarers either considering leaving the industry or being unsure whether they would stay or go, according to a survey by the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) in March.

This suggests a looming labor crunch that would strain the world’s 50,000-strong merchant shipping fleet and threaten the integrity of global supply chains.

A shortage of container ships carrying consumer products and logjams at ports around the world are already rippling through the retail industry, which has seen freight rates spike to record levels, driving up prices for goods.

“You don’t have enough crew anyway. The shipping industry was working on a very lean model,” said Mark O’Neil, CEO of leading ship manager Columbia Shipmanagement and also president of the international association for ship and crew managers.

“But now we have all of these problems and we have a large number of seafarers taken out of that available crewing pool,” he said, adding that the result could be vessels unable to sail.

Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the ITF, said seafarers were being pushed to their physical and mental limits.

“Some in the industry estimate that as many as 25% fewer seafarers are joining vessels than pre-pandemic,” he added. “We have warned that global brands need to be ready for the moment some of these tired and fatigued people finally snap.”

SHOTS FOR SEAFARERS

While COVID-19 infections in India have retreated from their peak, countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia are grappling surging cases and imposing new lockdowns. “If it gets worse, which it could well do, or if Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Ukraine — other crewing centres — experience the same problem, then the wheels would really come off,” Mr. O’Neil added.

The gravity of the assessment was echoed by Esben Poulsson, chairman of the board of the ICS.

“In my 50 years in the maritime industry, the crew change crisis has been unprecedented in the devastating impact it has had on seafarers around the world,” he told his board in June.

Most seafarers come from developing nations that have struggled to secure adequate vaccination supplies, leaving many in the maritime industry low on the priority list.

Governments with significant access to vaccines have a “moral responsibility” towards seafarers, said the ICS’s Mr. Platten.

“They must follow the lead of the US and the Netherlands and vaccinate non-native crews delivering goods to their ports. They must prioritize seafarer vaccination,” he added. — Reuters

A total of 55 member countries of the U.N. shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), have classed seafarers as essential workers, said David Hammond, chief executive of the charitable organization Hu-man Rights at Sea.

This would allow them to travel more freely and return to their homes, and give them better access to vaccines.

“But what about the other 119 member states and associate members?” asked Mr. Hammond. “Collectively, the global shipping industry is part of a $14-trillion maritime supply chain that cannot seemingly look after its 1.7 mil-lion seafarers.” — Reuters

Vietnam reaches deals on tech transfers for Russian, US COVID-19 vaccines

HANOI — Vietnam has reached agreements on technology transfers for Russian and US coronavirus vaccines, the government said in a statement, without elaborating.

The Southeast Asian country is keen to boost its vaccine capacity and the World Health Organization said in May it was reviewing a proposal by an unidentified manufacturer in Vietnam to become an mRNA-based COVID-19 vac-cine technology hub.

Vietnam’s health ministry was also in talks with Russia to produce the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, media has reported.

Tuesday’s statement also said Vietnam will receive 20 million more doses of the mRNA shot co-developed by US company Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech, raising the total to 51 million doses.

After successfully containing the virus for much of the pandemic, Vietnam is facing its worst outbreak so far, with a surge in daily infections to record levels adding to pressure on the government to shore up supplies and accel-erate inoculations.

Up to now, Vietnam has secured deals for 105 million doses of vaccines and is in talks with other manufacturers on deals for a further 70 million shots, the government said, adding it hoped to receive the shots in 2021 and early 2022.

The Southeast Asian country has received around 10.6 million doses of vaccines, and is due to receive supplies of Moderna’s vaccine from the United States via the COVAX facility.

Vietnam has also asked China for doses of the Sinopharm vaccine, the government statement added.

Vietnam’s health ministry said the country’s home-grown vaccine, NanoCovax, was expected to be widely administered by the end of 2021.

To date around 4.3 million doses have been administered, but only about 310,000 people have been fully vaccinated out of a population of 98 million. — Reuters

Hong Kong’s first trial under national security hears closing arguments

HONG KONG – The trial of the first person charged under Hong Kong’s national security law is set to wrap up on Tuesday, with the defendant denied bail and a jury in a landmark case that critics say is a departure from common law.

Former waiter Tong Ying-kit, 24, has pleaded not guilty to charges of terrorism, inciting secession as well as an alternative charge of dangerous driving causing grievous bodily harm on July 1 last year, shortly after the law was enacted.

Hong Kong’s common law has traditionally allowed defendants to seek release unless prosecutors can show lawful grounds for their detention.

Under the new law, which some Western governments and rights groups say is being used to crush dissent in the global financial hub, the burden rests with the defendant to prove they will not break the law if released on bail.

The governments in Beijing and Hong Kong have said repeatedly the new law was necessary to bring stability to the former British colony after anti-government protests in 2019.

Tong’s trial is being presided over by three judges handpicked by Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing leader, Carrie Lam, to hear national security cases: Esther Toh, Anthea Pang and Wilson Chan. There is no jury.

Hong Kong’s Judiciary describes trial by jury as one of the most important features of the city’s legal system, a common law tradition designed to offer defendants additional protection against authorities’ overreaching their power.

Article 46 of the security law – drafted by Beijing, where courts are controlled by the Communist Party and conviction rates are close to 100% – states three instances in which juries can be scrapped: protecting state secrets, cases involving foreign forces and protecting jurors’ safety.

Tong, the first of more than 120 people arrested under the security law, is accused of driving his motorbike into officers at a rally while carrying a flag with the protest slogan “Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of our times.”

The interpretation of the protest slogan is a key element of the trial. The government has said it suggests a call for independence, which would violate the security law. Defence lawyers argue it is a phrase with diverse meanings, including the desire for freedom and democracy.

Tong’s fate could signal how the courts will handle scores of other national security cases. – Reuters

Caught between China and the US, Asian countries stockpile powerful new missiles

SEOUL – Asia is sliding into a dangerous arms race as smaller nations that once stayed on the sidelines build arsenals of advanced long-range missiles, following in the footsteps of powerhouses China and the United States, analysts say.

China is mass producing its DF-26 – a multipurpose weapon with a range of up to 4,000 kilometers – while the United States is developing new weapons aimed at countering Beijing in the Pacific.

Other countries in the region are buying or developing their own new missiles, driven by security concerns over China and a desire to reduce their reliance on the United States.

Before the decade is out, Asia will be bristling with conventional missiles that fly farther and faster, hit harder, and are more sophisticated than ever before – a stark and dangerous change from recent years, analysts, diplomats, and military officials say.

“The missile landscape is changing in Asia, and it’s changing fast,” said David Santoro, president of the Pacific Forum.

Such weapons are increasingly affordable and accurate, and as some countries acquire them, their neighbors don’t want to be left behind, analysts said. Missiles provide strategic benefits such as deterring enemies and boosting leverage with allies, and can be a lucrative export.

The long-term implications are uncertain, and there is a slim chance that the new weapons could balance tensions and help maintain peace, Santoro said.

“More likely is that missile proliferation will fuel suspicions, trigger arms races, increase tensions, and ultimately cause crises and even wars,” he said.

HOMEGROWN MISSILES

According to unreleased 2021 military briefing documents reviewed by Reuters, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) plans to deploy its new long-range weapons in “highly survivable, precision-strike networks along the First Island Chain,” which includes Japan, Taiwan, and other Pacific islands ringing the east coasts of China and Russia.

The new weapons include the Long-range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), a missile that can deliver a highly maneuverable warhead at more than five times the speed of sound to targets more than 2,775 kilometers (1,724 miles) away.

An INDOPACOM spokesman told Reuters that no decisions had been made as to where to deploy these weapons. So far, most American allies in the region have been hesitant to commit to hosting them. If based in Guam, a U.S. territory, the LRHW would be unable to hit mainland China.

Japan, home to more than 54,000 U.S. troops, could host some of the new missile batteries on its Okinawan islands, but the United States would probably have to withdraw other forces, a source familiar with Japanese government thinking said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Allowing in American missiles – which the U.S. military will control – will also most likely bring an angry response from China, analysts said.

Some of America’s allies are developing their own arsenals. Australia recently announced it would spend $100 billion over 20 years developing advanced missiles.

“COVID and China have shown that depending on such extended global supply chains in times of crisis for key items – and in war, that includes advanced missiles – is a mistake, so it is sensible strategic thinking to have production capacity in Australia,” said Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Japan has spent millions on long range air-launched weapons, and is developing a new version of a truck-mounted anti-ship missile, the Type 12, with an expected range of 1,000 kilometres.

Among U.S. allies, South Korea fields the most robust domestic ballistic missile program, which got a boost from a recent agreement with Washington to drop bilateral limits on its capabilities. Its Hyunmoo-4 has an 800-kilometer range, giving it a reach well inside China.

“When the U.S. allies’ conventional long-range-strike capabilities grow, the chances of their employment in the event of a regional conflict also increase,” Zhao Tong, a strategic security expert in Beijing, wrote in a recent report.

Despite the concerns, Washington “will continue to encourage its allies and partners to invest in defence capabilities that are compatible with coordinated operations,” U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, told Reuters.

BLURRED LINES

Taiwan has not publicly announced a ballistic missile program, but in December the U.S. State Department approved its request to buy dozens of American short-range ballistic missiles. Officials say Taipei is mass producing weapons and developing cruise missiles such as the Yun Feng, which could strike as far as Beijing.

All this is aimed at “making the spines of (Taiwan’s) porcupine longer as the abilities of China’s military improve”, Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, told Reuters, while insisting that the island’s missiles were not meant to strike deep in China.

One diplomatic source in Taipei said Taiwan’s armed forces, traditionally focused on defending the island and warding off a Chinese invasion, are beginning to look more offensive.

“The line between defensive and offensive nature of the weapons is getting thinner and thinner,” the diplomat added.

South Korea has been in a heated missile race with North Korea. The North recently tested what appeared to be an improved version of its proven KN-23 missile with a 2.5-ton warhead that analysts say is aimed at besting the 2-ton warhead on the Hyunmoo-4.

“While North Korea still appears to be the primary driver behind South Korea’s missile expansion, Seoul is pursuing systems with ranges beyond what is necessary to counter North Korea,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.

As proliferation accelerates, analysts say the most worrisome missiles are those that can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. China, North Korea and the United States all field such weapons.

“It is difficult, if not impossible, to determine if a ballistic missile is armed with a conventional or nuclear warhead until it reaches the target,” Davenport said. As the number of such weapons increases, “there is an increased risk of inadvertent escalation to a nuclear strike.” — Reuters

Taiwan to open representative office in China sceptic Lithuania

TAIPEI – Taiwan announced on Tuesday that it will open a de facto embassy in the Baltic country of Lithuania, which risks further straining ties with Beijing by deepening diplomatic engagement with an island that China considers its own territory.

Lithuania said earlier this year it plans to open its own representative office in Taiwan, a decision that angered Beijing. The country announced last month it would also donate 20,000 COVID-19 vaccine doses to Taiwan.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told reporters in Taipei the new mission in Vilnius would be called the Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania, though he did not say when it would open.

“Taiwan and Lithuania are both at the strategic forefront of defending democratic institutions,” Wu said.

“I believe that through the close connection of shared values, the two countries’ peoples can work together to play a positive role in the international community and contribute to world peace, stability and prosperity.”

The United States welcomed the move, with its de facto embassy in Taiwan saying: “All countries should be free to pursue closer ties and greater cooperation with Taiwan, a leading democracy​, a major economy, and a force for good in the world”.

Only 15 countries have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but many others have de facto embassies which are often termed trade offices, as is the case for the European Union, of which Lithuania is a member state.

China has ramped up pressure on countries not to engage with Taiwan.

In February, the South American country of Guyana revoked a deal for Taiwan to open a representative office there only a day after Taipei had announced it. Taiwan blamed Chinese “bullying” for the decision.

Lithuania has been sceptical of other aspects of Beijing’s policies, and appeared to signal its concerns by only sending its transport minister, rather than a government leader, to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and central and eastern European countries in February. – Reuters

U.S. and allies accuse China of global hacking spree

WASHINGTON – The United States and its allies accused China on Monday of a global cyberespionage campaign, mustering an unusually broad coalition of countries to publicly call out Beijing for hacking.

The United States was joined by NATO, the European Union, Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan and New Zealand in condemning the spying, which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said posed “a major threat to our economic and national security.”

Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Justice charged four Chinese nationals – three security officials and one contract hacker – with targeting dozens of companies, universities and government agencies in the United States and abroad.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, called the accusations against China “irresponsible.”

“The Chinese government and relevant personnel never engage in cyber attacks or cyber theft,” Liu said in a statement.

At an event about the administration’s infrastructure plan, U.S. President Joe Biden told reporters: “My understanding is that the Chinese government, not unlike the Russian government, is not doing this themselves, but are protecting those who are doing it. And maybe even accommodating them being able to do it.”

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki was later asked at her daily briefing why Biden did not directly blame the Chinese government in his response to a reporter’s question.

“That was not the intention he was trying to project. He takes malicious cyber activity incredibly seriously,” Psaki said.

Psaki also said the White House does not differentiate between Russia and China when it comes to cyber attacks.

“We are not holding back, we are not allowing any economic circumstance or consideration to prevent us from taking actions … also we reserve the option to take additional action,” she said.

While a flurry of statements from Western powers represents a broad alliance, cyber experts said the lack of consequences for China beyond the U.S. indictment was conspicuous. Just a month ago, summit statements by G7 and NATO warned China and said it posed threats to the international order.

Adam Segal, a cybersecurity expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, called Monday’s announcement a “successful effort to get friends and allies to attribute the action to Beijing, but not very useful without any concrete follow-up.”

 

SOME CIRCUMSPECT STATEMENTS

Some of Monday’s statements even seemed to pull punches. While Washington and its close allies such as the United Kingdom and Canada held the Chinese state directly responsible for the hacking, others were more circumspect.

NATO merely said that its members “acknowledge” the allegations being leveled against Beijing by the U.S., Canada, and the UK. The European Union said it was urging Chinese officials to rein in “malicious cyber activities undertaken from its territory” – a statement that left open the possibility that the Chinese government was itself innocent of directing the espionage.

The United States was much more specific, formally attributing intrusions such as the one that affected servers running Microsoft Exchange earlier this year to hackers affiliated with China’s Ministry of State Security. Microsoft had already blamed China.

U.S. officials said the scope and scale of hacking attributed to China had surprised them, along with China’s use of “criminal contract hackers” who Blinken said carry out both state-sponsored activities and cybercrime for their own financial gain.

U.S. security and intelligence agencies outlined more than 50 techniques and procedures that “China state-sponsored actors” use against U.S. networks, a senior administration official said.

Washington in recent months have accused Russian hackers of a string of ransomware attacks in the United States.

The senior administration official said U.S. concerns about Chinese cyber activities have been raised with senior Chinese officials, and further action to hold China accountable was not being ruled out.

The United States and China have already been at loggerheads over trade, China’s military buildup, disputes about the South China Sea, a crackdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong and treatment of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region.

Blinken cited the Justice Department indictments as an example of how the United States will impose consequences.

The defendants and officials in the Hainan State Security Department, a regional state security office, tried to hide the Chinese government’s role in the information theft by using a front company, according to the indictment.

The campaign targeted trade secrets in industries including aviation, defense, education, government, healthcare, biopharmaceutical and maritime industries, the Justice Department said.

Victims were in Austria, Cambodia, Canada, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

“These criminal charges once again highlight that China continues to use cyber-enabled attacks to steal what other countries make, in flagrant disregard of its bilateral and multilateral commitments,” Deputy U.S. Attorney General Lisa Monaco said in the statement. – Reuters

Caught between China and the US, Asian countries stockpile powerful new missiles

SEOUL – Asia is sliding into a dangerous arms race as smaller nations that once stayed on the sidelines build arsenals of advanced long-range missiles, following in the footsteps of powerhouses China and the United States, analysts say.

China is mass producing its DF-26 – a multipurpose weapon with a range of up to 4,000 kilometers – while the United States is developing new weapons aimed at countering Beijing in the Pacific.

Other countries in the region are buying or developing their own new missiles, driven by security concerns over China and a desire to reduce their reliance on the United States.

Before the decade is out, Asia will be bristling with conventional missiles that fly farther and faster, hit harder, and are more sophisticated than ever before – a stark and dangerous change from recent years, analysts, diplomats, and military officials say.

“The missile landscape is changing in Asia, and it’s changing fast,” said David Santoro, president of the Pacific Forum.

Such weapons are increasingly affordable and accurate, and as some countries acquire them, their neighbors don’t want to be left behind, analysts said. Missiles provide strategic benefits such as deterring enemies and boosting leverage with allies, and can be a lucrative export.

The long-term implications are uncertain, and there is a slim chance that the new weapons could balance tensions and help maintain peace, Santoro said.

“More likely is that missile proliferation will fuel suspicions, trigger arms races, increase tensions, and ultimately cause crises and even wars,” he said.

 

HOMEGROWN MISSILES

According to unreleased 2021 military briefing documents reviewed by Reuters, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) plans to deploy its new long-range weapons in “highly survivable, precision-strike networks along the First Island Chain,” which includes Japan, Taiwan, and other Pacific islands ringing the east coasts of China and Russia.

The new weapons include the Long-range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), a missile that can deliver a highly maneuverable warhead at more than five times the speed of sound to targets more than 2,775 kilometers (1,724 miles) away.

An INDOPACOM spokesman told Reuters that no decisions had been made as to where to deploy these weapons. So far, most American allies in the region have been hesitant to commit to hosting them. If based in Guam, a U.S. territory, the LRHW would be unable to hit mainland China.

Japan, home to more than 54,000 U.S. troops, could host some of the new missile batteries on its Okinawan islands, but the United States would probably have to withdraw other forces, a source familiar with Japanese government thinking said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Allowing in American missiles – which the U.S. military will control – will also most likely bring an angry response from China, analysts said.

Some of America’s allies are developing their own arsenals. Australia recently announced it would spend $100 billion over 20 years developing advanced missiles.

“COVID and China have shown that depending on such extended global supply chains in times of crisis for key items – and in war, that includes advanced missiles – is a mistake, so it is sensible strategic thinking to have production capacity in Australia,” said Michael Shoebridge of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Japan has spent millions on long range air-launched weapons, and is developing a new version of a truck-mounted anti-ship missile, the Type 12, with an expected range of 1,000 kilometres.

Among U.S. allies, South Korea fields the most robust domestic ballistic missile program, which got a boost from a recent agreement with Washington to drop bilateral limits on its capabilities. Its Hyunmoo-4 has an 800-kilometer range, giving it a reach well inside China.

“When the U.S. allies’ conventional long-range-strike capabilities grow, the chances of their employment in the event of a regional conflict also increase,” Zhao Tong, a strategic security expert in Beijing, wrote in a recent report.

Despite the concerns, Washington “will continue to encourage its allies and partners to invest in defence capabilities that are compatible with coordinated operations,” U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, told Reuters.

 

BLURRED LINES

Taiwan has not publicly announced a ballistic missile program, but in December the U.S. State Department approved its request to buy dozens of American short-range ballistic missiles. Officials say Taipei is mass producing weapons and developing cruise missiles such as the Yun Feng, which could strike as far as Beijing.

All this is aimed at “making the spines of (Taiwan’s) porcupine longer as the abilities of China’s military improve”, Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, told Reuters, while insisting that the island’s missiles were not meant to strike deep in China.

One diplomatic source in Taipei said Taiwan’s armed forces, traditionally focused on defending the island and warding off a Chinese invasion, are beginning to look more offensive.

“The line between defensive and offensive nature of the weapons is getting thinner and thinner,” the diplomat added.

South Korea has been in a heated missile race with North Korea. The North recently tested what appeared to be an improved version of its proven KN-23 missile with a 2.5-ton warhead that analysts say is aimed at besting the 2-ton warhead on the Hyunmoo-4.

“While North Korea still appears to be the primary driver behind South Korea’s missile expansion, Seoul is pursuing systems with ranges beyond what is necessary to counter North Korea,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.

As proliferation accelerates, analysts say the most worrisome missiles are those that can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads. China, North Korea and the United States all field such weapons.

“It is difficult, if not impossible, to determine if a ballistic missile is armed with a conventional or nuclear warhead until it reaches the target,” Davenport said. As the number of such weapons increases, “there is an increased risk of inadvertent escalation to a nuclear strike.” – Reuters

US Defense secretary to visit Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam

PIXABAY

WASHINGTON – U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will visit Southeast Asia later this month, the Pentagon said, a trip that will include stops in the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, according to the U.S. embassy in Hanoi.

“Secretary Austin’s visit will demonstrate the importance the Biden-Harris Administration places on Southeast Asia and on ASEAN as an essential part of the Indo-Pacific’s architecture,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc.

The U.S. embassy in Hanoi said on Tuesday that Austin’s trip would start on July 23.

“This trip will underscore the enduring U.S. commitment to the region, and our interest in upholding the rules-based international order in the region and promoting ASEAN centrality,” the embassy said in a Facebook post.

The United States under President Joe Biden is looking to reinforce the need for a U.S. role in a region where China has sizeable influence as the dominant trade partner, but testy relationships as a result of its military activities in the South China Sea.

Austin has been to preserve decades-old military ties with the Philippines, a defense treaty partner, after repeated threats to downgrade the alliance by its largely pro-China President Rodrigo Duterte, whose term ends next year. — Reuters

Driven by fear, Filipinos saving more to prepare for COVID-19 risks — survey

Driven mostly by fear and insecurity, 77% of Filipino survey respondents said they plan to save more because of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A majority of these (or 94% of 800 respondents) prefer low-interest bank deposits — prompting AIA Group Limited, the parent company of insurer AIA Philam Life, to say that Filipinos “could be saving smarter.”

The Save Smarter Study 2021, conducted by AIA Group Limited, showed that 53% of Filipinos increased their savings by up to 50% in 2021; and 29% have said that they list out their savings goals and put aside savings to meet them, higher than the 25% average of other markets. 

According to AIA, this discipline in saving isn’t optimized as the “low bank interest environment threatens to depreciate savings with by far the most popular place to save being the bank with 91% using demand deposits and a massive 40% having no other form of savings at all.”

For Filipinos, the main motivation for saving is to manage uncertainties due to COVID-19, with 72% of respondents saying they put aside money for emergency spending; 65%, for financial security in case of misfortune; and 62%, for medical expenses 

“With the valuable insights we’ve gathered on Filipinos’ views on savings during the pandemic, we have very clear indications on what our customers need,” said AIA Philam Life Chief Executive Officer Kelvin Ang in a press release. “This ensures we are able to provide them the best product options that will help them live healthier, longer, better lives.” 

The pandemic has also led to a stronger interest in insurance, with three-fourths of Filipinos surveyed agreeing that insurance is needed for protection in case of unexpected incidents. Of those planning to raise spending on insurance, 80% intend to spend more on life insurance and 60% said they plan to spend more on medical and health insurance. 

The AIA Future Builder plan, the latest addition to AIA Philam Life’s portfolio, addresses the concerns revealed by the study. 

It comes with basic insurance protection for life, total permanent disability, and personal accidents as well as additional benefits through riders. It also allows the diversification of investments through either locally or globally managed funds. 

The Save Smarter Study 2021 surveyed 7,400 insurance consumers over 25 years old across eight Asian markets including the Philippines. In the region, preparing for emergency spending emerged as the top savings goal (64%), followed by guaranteeing financial security (60%), and coverage for medical expenses (54%). — Brontë H. Lacsamana

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