NEW YORK/LONDON – Some global consumers are showing signs of cracking, as shoppers stressed by record inflation stick to buying basics like food, bleach and cheap burgers, while those with bigger bank accounts are snapping up $3,000 Louis Vuitton handbags.
Investors are closely watching second quarter corporate results for signs economies are headed toward recession. But so far consumers are sending mixed signals. There is weakness seen in those that have been hit hardest by record fuel and food prices. Meanwhile, credit card and other data shows some are still spending on travel and other high-end pursuits. Read full story
Walmart sounded a warning shot on Monday, issuing a rare profit warning. Its US customers, who tend to come from lower-income households, are buying food and other essentials while skipping aisles filled with clothes and sporting goods. Read full story
“The results overnight indicate that the US consumer is now much more focused on the staples element of shopping where we’ve got double-digit food inflation coming through in some of these retailers,” said Nicola Morgan-Brownsell, fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management.
US consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in July amid persistent worries about higher inflation and rising interest rates. Read full story
Sales at luxury group LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE climbed 19% in the second quarter, slightly lower than earlier this year. Handbag and high-end liquor sales in Europe and the United States helped offset slowdowns stemming from COVID-19 lockdowns in China. Read full story
And payment processor Visa said cross-border volume jumped 40% reflecting a summer travel boom and some consumer resilience. Read full story
But softer consumer demand hit video gaming revenue at Xbox maker Microsoft MSFT.O, which posted a 7% drop in Xbox-related revenue and expects a further contraction this quarter. Microchip maker Texas Instruments TXN.O saw weaker demand from consumers for personal electronics.
BUYING, BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Consumer giants Coca Cola Co., McDonald’s Corp. and Unilever Plc all said on Tuesday that their products are still selling, even at higher prices.
Unilever, which has 400 brands including Hellmann’s mayonnaise, Knorr stock cubes and Domestos bleach, raised its full-year sales guidance after beating first-half underlying sales forecasts as it hiked prices. Read full story
So far consumers are buying, but there is a question around how long that can last.
“We see price increases when we go out to do a weekly shop. The question is: how much more accepting can the consumer be on those price increases?” said Ashish Sinha, portfolio manager at Unilever and Reckitt RKT.L shareholder Gabelli.
McDonald’s which operates nearly 40,000 restaurants, said its global same-store sales jumped almost 10%, much better than the expectation for an increase of 6.5%. Read full story
Even so, the Chicago-based company said it is considering whether to add more discounted menu options because soaring inflation, particularly in Europe, is leading some lower-income consumers to “trade-down” to cheaper items and to buy fewer big combination meals, Chief Financial Officer Kevin Ozan said.
Coke’s global sales volumes rose 8% in the second quarter, the company said, powered by growth in both developed and emerging markets, while average selling prices increased about 12%. Read full story
“Coke’s results are testament to its brand value because consumers are unwilling to trade down to other colas, despite increasing prices,” CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said.
SLOWDOWN AHEAD?
Germany-based footwear maker Adidas AG cut its earnings target for the year due to a slow recovery for its business in China. Read full story
General Motors Co. on Tuesday reaffirmed its full-year profit outlook on an expected surge in demand and said it was curbing spending and hiring ahead of a potential economic slowdown, but a 40% drop in its quarterly net income disappointed, sending shares lower. Read full story
The Detroit automaker’s reduced net income reflected supply-chain snarls, including a global semiconductor chip shortage that hit hardest in June. The company’s shares fell 3.4%.
Nevertheless, GM sees a lot of pent-up demand.
Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said GM still sees strong pricing and demand for its vehicles.
A GM pickup truck starts around $31,500 for a base Chevrolet model, while a loaded GMC Sierra can top $100,000. Most models come in the $50,000 to $70,000 range.
“We feel good about making up all that (lost) volume in the back half of the year,” he said. – Reuters
MANILA – Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has ordered the immediate dispatch of rescue and relief teams to the earthquake-affected province of Abra, his press secretary said on Wednesday.
Marcos will also fly to Abra, the epicentre of a powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake, Press Secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles told a news conference. — Reuters
FILRT President and CEO Maricel Brion-Lirio (rightmost) is joined by other ICT-BPM thought leaders.
The Philippines’ IT-BPM sector is on the fast lane towards recovery. The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) announced that the industry’s 2021 showing surpassed 2021 and 2022 targets with revenues coming in at $29.49 billion for 2021 indicating a 10.6% year-on-year revenue growth. Filinvest REIT (FILRT) President and CEO Maricel Brion-Lirio shared the same optimism during the Go-Tech Summit hosted by the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
“Our high occupancy rate is a clear demonstration of FILRT’s strong support for the IT-BPM industry. Indeed, the BPO sector remains to be the top demand driver for office space in the country, and for FILRT, in particular, the BPO sector comprises 91% of our tenant mix or equivalent to 240,998 sq.m. of space in our Grade A, sustainable office buildings portfolio,” shared Ms. Brion-Lirio.
FILRT boasts of a portfolio that consists of 17 Grade A (highest quality) and LEED Gold-certified office buildings, which include green and sustainability-themed features. Of these, 16 are in Northgate Cyberzone in Filinvest City in Alabang, a PEZA Special Economic Zone and IT park, and the first central business district (CBD) in the Philippines to receive LEED® v4 Gold for Neighborhood Development Plan certification for its township-wide green and sustainability features, as well as the first CBD to receive Berde certification. Two of the properties in its portfolio namely Axis Tower One and Vector Three are among the country’s few LEED Gold-certified developments. Rounding up the portfolio is Filinvest Cyberzone Cebu, a 1.2-hectare joint commercial development of FILRT with the Cebu Provincial Government, represented by the honorable Governor Gwendolyn Garcia, under a 30-year “build-transfer-operate” arrangement.
Office buildings inside Northgate Cyberzone are cooled by the country’s largest district cooling system that reduces carbon emissions and energy consumption, the result of Filinvest’s partnership with Engie, a world leader in developing sustainable technology solutions. All FILRT properties have bicycle parking facilities to help reduce the use of motorized vehicles and encourage greener modes of transport. Electric jeepneys ply the streets of the neighborhood to offer low-carbon transport for the commuting public.
“Our energy management approach revolves around the two key focus areas of energy efficiency and using renewable energy whenever economically feasible. We are exploring how we can attain 100% renewables for our tenants. To date, 6 out of 17 properties getting 100% renewable energy from a retail electricity supplier, and we are in discussions on how the supply can be increased to serve more buildings in the next 2 to 3 years. Needless to say, we aim to replicate these measures in all FILRT office developments moving forward as these sustainability features are sought after by multinational BPOs and ROHQ companies,” shared Ms. Brion-Lirio on FILRT’s sustainability initiatives.
According to Colliers, more companies in the Philippines are now looking for sustainable and healthy work environments that will provide confidence for their employees to return to workplaces, an important consideration in a post-COVID-19 world.
“We are proud to say that FILRT was the first sustainability-themed REIT listed on the bourse. We strongly believe that the future of the offices sector lies on sustainability. This is why the Filinvest group is committed to creating green and sustainable developments. FILRT’s growth strategy is largely anchored on having a pipeline of green, high-value assets that attract tenants who share Filinvest’s journey towards a future in real estate where environmental sustainability is embedded in the design of spaces and daily operations,” added Ms. Brion-Lirio.
Learn more about investing in or leasing spaces with FILRT by visiting the Filinvest REIT official website www.filinvestreit.com and official social media platforms www.facebook.com/filinvestreitcorp and www.linkedin.com/company/filinvestreit.
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The region’s leading NGO Enterprise Asia is pleased to confer the Asia Responsible Enterprise Awards (AREA) 2022 to 72 outstanding award recipients for championing ESG to build a resilient world and a sustainable future for all.
Widely regarded as the gold standard for CSR and sustainability practice, the AREA is the most prominent CSR recognition program across Asia initiated by Enterprise Asia. The AREA aims to recognize and honor Asian businesses and leaders for championing sustainable and socially responsible business practices.
Richard Tsang, president of Enterprise Asia, stated in his welcome speech, “The pandemic has catalyzed our growth as people and as a society, and this is only the beginning of a much greater transformation. Through collaboration and partnership, we can deliver the required investments and actions to accelerate progress in social, environmental, and economic sectors.”
According to Dr Eugene Chien, Chairman of the AREA Judging Committee, “I am proud that many of the participants this year have strived to adopt this practice as well as manage the continuance of their CSR initiatives and evolve them into larger ventures. This results in projects that are more sustainable, of greater relevance to the target community, and create a meaningful positive change in society.”
Since 2011, the AREA has been recognizing businesses from various industries while honoring their achievements in the categories of Social Empowerment, Investment in People, Health Promotion, Green Leadership, Corporate Governance, Circular Economy Leadership, Responsible Business Leadership, and Corporate Sustainability Reporting. This year, a total of 260 submissions across 19 countries have undergone a stringent judging process which is based on the 3 criterion of effectiveness and reach, relevance, and sustainability, and only 100 impactful CSR programs and 3 business leaders were accorded as winners.
The recipients of the Responsible Business Leadership Category which recognizes leaders who are strong advocates for responsible entrepreneurship and at the forefront of promoting sustainable practices and in promoting the sustainability agenda within their organizations and their communities include Tsai Hong-Tu, chairman of Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. and Joseph Huang, chairman of E.SUN Commercial Bank Ltd, from Taiwan, and Dr. Jacques Marcille, managing director of Kulara Water Co., Ltd. From Cambodia.
Other notable award recipients are CPC Corporation Taiwan under the Green Leadership category with its program “Take the First Step Towards Carbon Neutrality in the Energy Industry”; Far Eastern New Century Corporation under the Circular Economy Leadership category with its “Green Growth through Circular Economy” program; KWG Living Group Holdings Limited of China, Puncak Niaga Holdings Berhad of Malaysia and AUO Corporation of Taiwan under the Corporate Governance category; Government Housing Bank of Thailand, and SinoPac Holdings under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting category; PT Pupuk Kujang of Indonesia and LEO Global Logistics Public Company Limited of Thailand under the Social Empowerment category.
Four Philippines companies emerged as winners of the AREA 2022 which include Energy Development Corporation under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting category; Watsons Personal Care Stores (Philippines), Inc. under the Green Leadership category; UHS Essential Health Philippines, Inc. under the Investment In People category; and SM Investments Corporation under the Corporate Governance category.
The AREA 2022 is supported by CSRone, the Global Reporting Initiative, India CSR Network, Malaysian Business Council of Cambodia (MBCC), Malaysia Green Technology and Climate Change Corp. (MGTC), National Institute of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (NIEI), Singapore-Thai Chamber of Commerce, and Taiwan Institute for Sustainable Energy (TAISE), with Bangkok Post, BusinessWorld, Commercial Times, Hong Kong Economic Times, Kumparan, and SME Magazine as media partners, and Evogenetic Studio as the Official Production Partner.
RECIPIENTS OF THE ASIA RESPONSIBLE ENTERPRISE AWARDS 2022
RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS LEADERSHIP
NAME
ORGANIZATION
COUNTRY
Tsai Hong-Tu Chairman
Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd.
Taiwan
Joseph Huang Chairman
E.SUN Commercial Bank Ltd
Taiwan
Dr. Jacques Marcille Managing Director
Kulara Water Co., Ltd.
Cambodia
SOCIAL EMPOWERMENT CATEGORY
ORGANIZATION
CSR PROGRAM
COUNTRY
ADATA Technology Co., Ltd
The Future is Ours to Define
Taiwan
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd
Lighting up the Stars and Inspiring Hope
Taiwan
Aspire Systems
Harihara Subramanian Scholarship
India
Celcom Axiata Berhad
Community Reliefs, Digital Entrepreneurship & Equity in Education
Malaysia
Chugai Pharma Taiwan
Cycling for Charity
Taiwan
CK Power Public Company Limited
Hinghoi: Renewable Energy for Sustainable Community
Thailand
CPC Corporation Taiwan
The Guardian Angels of CPC, Taiwan
Taiwan
DBS Bank (Taiwan) Ltd.
DBS Taiwan’s Effort Towards Zero Food Waste
Taiwan
E Ink Holdings Inc.
eRead for The Future
Taiwan
Far Eastern Big City Shopping Malls Co., Ltd.
Big City Street Art Festival
Taiwan
Farglory Life Co.,Ltd.
Farglory Life Insurance Infinite Love Support Vulnerable Groups Program
Taiwan
Fubon Life Insurance
Fubon Life Transportation and Medical Assistance Program for Elderly Cancer Patients
Taiwan
Government Savings Bank
Car and Motorcycle Title Loan
Thailand
KDN Company Limited
Krisy Kreme Super60
Thailand
Krungthai Bank PCL.
Paotang App
Thailand
LEO Global Logistics Public Company Limited
My School Project
Thailand
Nan Shan Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
Dementia Friendly Program
Taiwan
NSE Asia Products Pte Ltd
Nu Skin Southeast Asia Children’s Heart Fund (SEACHF)
Singapore
PETRA Group
Providing Solutions for Humanity through Sustainable Technology
Malaysia
President Chain Store Corp.
7-ELEVEN In-store Spare Change Donation Brings Back The Love Together
Taiwan
Prince Holding Group
Chen Zhi Scholarship
Cambodia
Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA)
Renewable Energy Project and Sustainable Development for the Community
Thailand
PT Badak NGL
Salin Swara (Sampah Keliling Swadaya Masyarakat) Social Innovation in Waste Management
Indonesia
PT Pembangkitan Jawa Bali – UBJOM Rembang
Empowered Women in Agriculture (Wanita Berdaya Tani Community)
Indonesia
PT Polytama Propindo
Mang Covid (Covid-19 Prevention Management)
Indonesia
PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur
Community Empowerment Program for Coral Reef Media Plantation by KIMASEA Group
Indonesia
PT Pupuk Kujang
Kampung NanasKu: Pineapple Cultivation and Processing Based On Community Empowerment
Indonesia
S&P Syndicate Public Company Limited
S&P Value for a Better Community
Thailand
SinoPac Holdings
Organizing Song of Life for the Elderly: Record the Stories of Taiwan
Taiwan
Sinyi Realty Inc.
Deeply Rooted in Communities for a Sustainable Future
Taiwan
SPEEDWIND DISTRIBUTIONS Co., Ltd.
Giving with Heart – CSR Initiative
Cambodia
Tai O Heritage Hotel
Promoting Sustainable Tourism and Cultural Heritage Conservation
Hong Kong
Taiwan Business Bank
Trust Combines Urban Renewal to Create A Well-being Life
Taiwan
Taiwan Life Insurance Co., Ltd
The 10th “Three-Generation Walk for Health”: Digital Technology Increases Impact on Social Welfare
Taiwan
The Shanghai
Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd.
“Love The Earth” Painting Shimen Public Welfare Activity
Taiwan
Tourism Authority Of Thailand
Leader in Opening the Phuket Sandbox for Foreign Tourists
Thailand
TPN FlexPak Co., Ltd
Sharing Happiness with Our Community
Thailand
INVESTMENT IN PEOPLE CATEGORY
ORGANIZATION
CSR PROGRAM
COUNTRY
BAT Taiwan
Be The Change – Putting People and Our Society First
Fulfillment of Sustainability Commitment and Be a Model of Sustainability
Taiwan
Taiwan Depository & Clearing Corporation
Start from the Heart and Demonstrate the Spirit of Sustainability – TDCC ESG Report
Taiwan
Taiwan Life Insurance Co., Ltd
“Sustainable Trust, Enriched Future” Taiwan Life 2020 Sustainability Report
Taiwan
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Photo shows Dr. Tony Tan Caktiong and Mrs. Grace Tan Caktiong receiving the award from former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban, PHINMA Chairman and CEO Ramon R. del Rosario, Jr., Ambassador Jesus P. Tambunting (2010 RVR Awardee), Ambassador Jose L. Cuisia, Jr., Asian Institute of Management President and Dean Dr. Jikyeong Kang, and JCI Manila President Richard Lim.
Jollibee Founder and Chairman Dr. Tony Tan Caktiong was honored with the 2022 Ramon V. del Rosario (RVR) Award for Nation Building at a recently concluded ceremony on July 25, 2022 at the Manila Polo Club.
Dr. Tan Caktiong was chosen as this year’s awardee for his dedication to quality, innovation, and excellence, which propelled the Jollibee Group from its humble beginnings to being one of the largest food companies in the world with 18 brands across 34 countries—putting the Philippines on the global map and being a source of national pride.
PHINMA Chairman and CEO Ramon R. del Rosario, Jr., welcomed distinguished business personalities, young entrepreneurs, and civic leaders gathered at the Manila Polo Club and online viewers tuned in to the event livestream.
“In honoring outstanding nation builders, we are helping build a business constituency for good. We do not see this as just another recognition ceremony but rather, a recommitment event as well as a continuing clarion call to make business a genuine force for good! I am confident that tonight’s honoree will join his fellow awardees in multiplying this force,” he said.
The RVR Award for Nation Building is bestowed upon individuals who have contributed to nation building through their businesses and social enterprises, and who have proven themselves worthy of honor and emulation by their peers and by emerging young entrepreneurs. Nominees go through a screening process by a committee consisting of representatives of JCI Manila, PHINMA, AIM RVR Center, and the del Rosario Family, before the final selection by the award’s Board of Judges led by former Chief Justice Artemio V. Panganiban and Ramon R. del Rosario, Jr.
In his acceptance speech, Tan said, “the work of nation-building is the responsibility of all — each and every one of us — it is a shared task. Now, more than ever, our strong participation is needed.”
The Ramon V. del Rosario Awards acknowledges the support of the following companies:
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The Ortigas Business District seen from Antipolo, May 13, 2021. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
By Keisha B. Ta-asan
THE PHILIPPINE central bank signaled an interest rate hike of less than 75 basis points (bps) at its next meeting in August, as it focuses on bringing down inflation.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Felipe M. Medalla also ruled out any more off-cycle rate adjustments.
“One thing I can say is you can only surprise people only once. So there will be no more off-cycle rate hikes. As to how many more rate hikes before the end of the year, that would be very data dependent,” he said during the post-State of the Nation Address (SONA) economic briefing in Pasay City on Tuesday.
In a surprise move, the BSP raised its benchmark rates by 75 bps on July 14, as it sought to contain broadening price pressures.
This brought the rate on the key overnight reverse repurchase facility to 3.25%. The BSP’s overnight deposit and lending facilities were also increased by 75 bps, to 2.75% and 3.75%, respectively.
The Monetary Board has raised benchmark interest rates by a total of 125 bps so far this year as inflation continues to remain elevated.
Mr. Medalla also hinted the Monetary Board may consider a rate hike of 25-50 bps at its Aug. 18 meeting.
“My guess is you can rule out zero or 75 bps,” he said.
“What we don’t want is the high inflation creating momentum. Wage adjustment, fare adjustment… or what we call second-order effects. That is what monetary policy is looking at. Of course, we have to balance, if we raise too much the economy weakens.”
Inflation rose by 6.1% year on year in June, the fastest in nearly four years and exceeded the central bank’s 2-4% target band for a third straight month. The average inflation rate in the first six months is 4.4%, still below the BSP’s full-year forecast of 5%.
“This year we will not meet our 2-4% target. Inflationary forces outside the Philippines are just too high. Indeed, even countries with very low inflation in the past are actually experiencing even higher inflation than we are,” Mr. Medalla said.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise policy rates by at least 75 bps at its July 26-27 meeting.
“The US is surely going to raise policy rates by 75 basis points. Like it or not, the US dollar is the safe-haven currency. Too much depreciation of the peso, or overshooting, can actually add to inflation. These are the things we are managing,” Mr. Medalla said.
The Philippine peso, which had hit a record low early this month against the US dollar, recovered lost ground on Tuesday.
The local unit closed at P55.30 per dollar on Tuesday, sharply gaining 80 centavos from its P56.10 finish on Monday, based on Bankers Association of the Philippines data.
Mr. Medalla said favorable growth conditions this year suggest that the domestic economy can handle tightening monetary policy.
“However, when you look at it, our monetary policy is still very supportive of economic growth. Indeed, the policy rate, which used to be a record low of 2%, is now just around 3.25%. By large, our estimate is the economy can absorb the increase in policy rate,” he added.
The BSP slashed benchmark rates by a cumulative 200 bps to support the pandemic-hit economy in 2020.
The economy expanded by a faster-than-expected 8.3% in the first quarter. The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is targeting 6.5-7.5% GDP growth this year.
Mr. Medalla also added that banks are very adequately capitalized and can absorb the rate hikes.
“Going forward, there is so much uncertainty. But we stand ready to make the necessary adjustments so that balancing between maintaining and sustaining growth and ensuring financial stability in one hand and price stability on the other will all be achieved,” Mr. Medalla said.
The BSP is scheduled to review its policy on Aug. 18.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is scheduled to release July inflation data on Aug. 5, and second-quarter GDP data on Aug. 9.
Meanwhile, in a research note from S&P Global Ratings authored by Asia-Pacific Chief Economist Louis Kuijs, central banks in the Asia-Pacific region may not follow the Fed closely as the region’s core inflation is generally lower compared with the US.
“In the Asia-Pacific economies where core inflation pressure is lower than in the US, policy rates may not rise as much and as fast as in the world’s largest economy,” S&P Global Ratings said.
“Nonetheless, good growth prospects and a comparatively large proportion of equity-based capital flows relative to bond flows should dampen such pressure in several other regional economies. Relatively rapid growth has helped attract foreign capital to the Asia-Pacific region in recent decades.”
S&P Global Ratings also said the coronavirus pandemic weakened the region’s performance in recent years.
“But we forecast Asia-Pacific GDP expansion of about 4.7% in 2023-2025. The region will keep its status as the world’s fastest growing,” the credit rater added.
Laborers work on the Marikina River rehabilitation project, May 16. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ WALTER BOLLOZOS
By Diego Gabriel C. Robles
THE NATIONAL Government’s budget deficit widened in June, as revenues grew by double digits but was outpaced by faster spending for road and transport infrastructure projects, military modernization efforts, and social welfare programs.
The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) on Tuesday said the budget gap stood at P215.5 billion in June, 43.8% higher than the P149.9 billion in the same month a year ago.
“The June outturn was driven by the 27.91% growth in expenditures which outpaced the 18.20% increase in government receipts,” it said in a statement.
Government expenditures rose by 28% to P505.8 billion during the month, thanks to an increase in capital outlay disbursements for road and transport infrastructure programs and projects under the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ modernization program.
“Spending, likewise, grew on the back of the implementation of various social protection programs of the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), the release of the P10-billion Coco Levy Fund, and higher personnel services expenditures,” the Treasury said.
On the other hand, total revenue collection jumped by 18.2% to P290.3 billion in June from P245.57 billion in the same period last year. This was driven by a 17.42% rise in tax revenues to P250.9 billion, and a 23.46% increase in nontax revenues to P39.4 billion.
The bulk of tax revenues came from the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) with P173.5 billion, up by 8.9% year on year. The Bureau of Customs (BoC) collected P76.2 billion, a 46.07% increase from last year, while tax collections from other offices slid by 46.47% to P1.1 billion.
“The [BoC] attributed the gains from anti-smuggling measures including the fuel marking program which was further boosted by elevated oil prices and peso depreciation,” the BTr said.
The BTr’s revenues dipped by 0.33% to P20.8 billion, while nontax collections from other offices surged by 68% to P18.6 billion.
Primary expenditures, or spending net of interest payments, expanded by 28.33% to P469 billion in June.
Interest payments increased by 22.81% to P36.8 billion in June, “due to the effect of monetary policy adjustments on the reissuance of government securities.”
Analysts attributed the higher expenditures in June to catch-up projects as the election ban on public works projects ended in May.
“Spending was also upbeat in June after the election ban was lifted and as interest payment rose sharply by 23% due to rising interest rates,” said Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at the Manila branch of Dutch bank ING Bank N.V.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that “the wider budget deficit [against] a year ago could be attributed to the end of the 45-day election ban on some public works [and] other government spending.”
“This is partly offset by the double-digit growth in government revenues as consistent with measures to further reopen the economy towards greater normalcy,” Mr. Ricafort said.
NARROWER GAP In the first six months of 2022, the budget deficit narrowed to P674.2 billion, 5.84% lower than the P716.1-billion gap a year ago and 18.64% below the program.
Total revenue collection by the National Government jumped by 15.91% to P1.73 trillion in the first half, and exceeded the six-month target of P1.648 trillion by 4.8%.
Tax revenues, which accounted for 89% of the total, jumped by 14.72% to P1.54 trillion during the six-month period. This was attributed to the 9.7% increase in BIR collections to P1.13 trillion, and 31.47% rise in BoC collections to P396.7 billion.
Nontax revenues, on the other hand, went up by 26.85% to P186.3 billion, thanks to a 27.54% rise in BTr revenues to P104.1 billion.
On the other hand, year-to-date expenditures rose by 8.85% to P2.4 trillion, but fell short of the six-month goal of P2.47 trillion by 3%.
The BTr said this can be attributed to “the slower-than-expected capital expenditures amid the election ban in late March up to early May, as well as the timing of release for the special shares of LGUs (local government units) in the proceeds of national taxes to July.”
Primary expenditures stood at P2.14 trillion in the first semester, up by 7.34% year on year but 3.57% short of the P2.2-trillion program.
Interest payments surged by 23.34% to P257.2 billion.
“As a percentage of expenditure and revenue, interest payments for Jan.-Jun 2022 accounted for 10.71% and 14.89% respectively, compared with 9.45% and 13.99% last year,” the BTr said.
The government expects the budget deficit to hit P1.65 trillion this year, slightly lower than the actual deficit of P1.67 trillion in 2021.
As of the first quarter, the budget deficit as a ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 6.4%.
The government aims to reduce the deficit to 7.6% of GDP this year, and further to 6.1% in 2023, 5.1% in 2024, 4.1% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027, and 3% in 2028.
FINANCE Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno on Tuesday said there is no need for the Philippine government to ramp up borrowings as it did during the height of the pandemic in 2020.
This as economic managers on Tuesday unveiled the game plan to achieve the Marcos administration’s ambitious economic and fiscal targets for the next six years.
“The indication is clear. We do not have to borrow as much as we did in the last years, and at the same time, we will continue to boost domestic economic activity with our massive infrastructure investment of 5-6% of gross domestic product (GDP),” Mr. Diokno said at the post-State of the Nation (SONA) economic briefing in Pasay City.
The Philippines’ debt pile reached P12.495 trillion as of end-May, reflecting the surge in government borrowings to finance its pandemic response.
As of end-March, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio breached the 60% threshold recommended by multilateral lenders at 63.5%.
The Finance chief said the Philippines is fully prepared to address risks arising from elevated inflation, lingering effects of the pandemic and the unpredictable global economy.
“The Marcos administration will implement a comprehensive 8-point socioeconomic agenda to decisively respond to these risks and steer the economy back to its high-growth trajectory,” he said, referring to the government’s 6.5-7.5% GDP target for this year and up to 8% GDP goal for 2023-2028.
The socioeconomic agenda includes ensuring food security, reducing transportation and logistics costs, and bringing down the high cost of power. The near-term agenda also includes mitigating the scarring impact from the pandemic by addressing learning losses and strengthening social protection, as well as ensuring sound macroeconomic fundamentals by improving bureaucratic efficiency.
Mr. Diokno said that the country still has enough fiscal space to meet these ends, citing a sound tax system and 200 ready-to-implement projects left by the preceding administration.
“We will enhance the improved tax system, so that will give us more revenues… we will rightsize the government so that the government will be in much better shape and do much more with less,” he said.
Over the medium term, the Marcos administration wants to create more jobs, improve infrastructure and ensure a level playing field in markets.
“We need to address the constraints to growth [and] constraints to quality employment creation that have been well identified by our development partners. These include issues affecting infrastructure,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said.
Mr. Balisacan said the government will focus on improving the educational system, as well as develop high-quality job-creating sectors, particularly manufacturing.
UPPER MIDDLE INCOME Economic managers are hoping to achieve President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s target for the Philippines to achieve upper middle-income status by 2024.
“At the rate we are growing, and assuming that we’ll achieve the 6.5-7.5% growth this year and the 6.5-8% next year, we should be reaching that minimum of $4,250 in 2024,” Mr. Balisacan said.
The World Bank recently increased its income range for the upper middle-income bracket to a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $4,256-$13,205 from $4,096-$12,695.
The Philippines remained a lower middle-income economy despite the GNI per capita going up by 6.12% to $3,640 last year.
“That will mean that the size of the economic pie will be bigger, and that will mean that even without Mr. Diokno raising the rates of taxes, the size of the government revenues will be much bigger, and so we’ll have more resources for meeting public services and social protection,” Mr. Balisacan said.
Mr. Marcos is also aiming to reduce poverty incidence to 9% by 2028 or the end of his term.
“It’s so crucial that we are able to grow quickly, and sustain that growth because that is the most sustainable way of reducing poverty and achieving greater distribution of opportunities,” Mr. Balisacan said. — Diego Gabriel C. Robles
THE PROPOSED P5.268-trillion national budget for 2023 will focus on the Marcos administration’s top priorities such as education, health, infrastructure, social safety nets, and agriculture, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said on Tuesday.
During the post-State of the Nation Address (SONA) economic briefing, Ms. Pangandaman said the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) is still finalizing the proposed General Appropriations Act (GAA) which will be submitted to Congress on Aug. 22.
The proposed P5.268-trillion budget accounts for 22% of gross domestic product (GDP), and is 5% higher than this year’s P5.024-trillion budget.
Ms. Pangandaman expressed hope the budget bill will be approved by Congress before the Christmas break.
“Our budget will support our medium-term fiscal framework and the eight-point agenda… First, of course, is funding for education. It is the top priority, as mandated by the Constitution,” Ms. Pangandaman said.
“We will use and allocate our scarce resources to be able to finance our priority programs and projects. We will ensure that every peso in our GAA (General Appropriations Act) will be spent and implemented timely,” she added.
Since the Marcos administration promised to continue the “Build, Build, Build” program, she said the DBM will provide funding support for infrastructure projects.
“As directed by the President, we shall continue with the ‘Build Build Build,’ and expand it further,” Ms. Pangandaman said, adding that spending on infrastructure is seen to reach P2 trillion by 2028.
The Marcos administration is targeting an infrastructure spending-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 5-6% annually from 2023 to 2028.
The infrastructure program for this year is at P1.2 trillion, accounting for 5.5% of GDP.
In his first SONA on Monday, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. said the government should aspire to “build, better, more.”
“Necessarily, infrastructure development will remain a very high priority in our drive for growth and employment. Once again, I will not suspend any of the ongoing projects as those have already been shown to be of benefit to the public that they serve,” Mr. Marcos said.
The DBM will also roll out the Budget and Treasury Management System.
“It is an online ledger of all transactions of the government, from planning up to the release of the budget. We will see the levels of the budget in real time. You’ll see the releases; you’ll see the balances of our budget. So, it will ensure transparency in government transactions,” she said.
‘COMPLICATIONS’ Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said they are now reviewing which spending items should be assigned to local government units (LGUs), as the Mandanas ruling is implemented this year.
“In an executive order issued by President Duterte before he left office, he specified some of the items that are now going to be assigned to LGUs. These are not really new items… except that there are some items that should not be there in the first place,” he said.
“Right now, we are reviewing what spending items should be assigned to LGUs, and we are in close coordination with the needs of cities, provinces, etc.,” he added.
Mr. Marcos also highlighted this issue during his SONA on Monday.
“We have been in discussion with local government leaders, governors and mayors, in the last few weeks to determine, with the LGUs, what is actually practicable, what functions belong to the LGUs and what belong to the National Government,” Mr. Marcos said.
The President noted some “complications” arose over who will repair school buildings in relation to the Mandanas ruling.
Starting this year, LGUs received a bigger share of the National Government’s tax collections, alongside the transfer of basic services.
President Rodrigo R. Duterte in June 2021 signed Executive Order (EO) No. 138 which transfers a number of basic services to LGUs by 2024. With this, the government is shifting programs and projects, worth an estimated P234.4 billion, to LGUs. — D.G.C.Robles
JAKARTA The other week, I was in Jakarta to watch Gilas Pilipinas play in the FIBA Asia Basketball Cup. On the way to our hotel, I was struck by how different the city looked since I last visited in 2018. Undeveloped spaces sprang forth new buildings, transport hubs, and vibrant centers of economic activity. It was amazing. When I asked what spurred this pace of growth, the reply was: “Well, people kept working through the pandemic.”
Later, when I visited Anthoni Salim in his office at Indofood, he shared with me his plans to develop 600 hectares of greenhouses. Their goal, he says, is to help feed their population of 270 million people. This is the kind of single-minded approach to Agriculture that our country sorely needs — and one which our Group is passionate about — feeding our people first. It is appalling how many billions of dollars we spend on imported food every year. President Marcos’s focus on the sector has resonated with us, and our people. It will be precisely this mindset — focus, boldness, and planning — that could turn this industry around.
OUTLOOK Outlooks are tricky. Several studies have revealed that economic growth forecasts — many of which rely on formulas more scientific and sophisticated than my own studied observations — tend to have upward biases. So instead of speculating about how our country might perform in the coming years, perhaps it would be more prudent to offer my own outlook in the form of a to-do list — starting with areas that our companies can materially affect.
Agriculture is foremost in our mind. We are in sugar and dairy production already. We will emulate the greenhouses of Anthoni here, and expand into other food areas.
Power is next. The Philippines needs adequate and affordable energy, and simply more power plants to augment supply. This was driven home by President Marcos Jr. in his SONA earlier this week. If there are no new plants built soon, we can expect rotating brownouts in the country. We must also achieve a fair degree of energy independence, failing which import dependencies will subject us to the vagaries of geopolitics. And if we do not reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, we can expect a grim future for our children.
Meralco, for its part, intends to build a substantial portfolio of power plants, especially renewable. We plan to raise the share of renewables in our distribution supply chain and our generation portfolio. We envisage an energy mix that is 35% renewable by 2030, and 60% in 2040. We are also applying with the government for an ambitious capex for advanced metering infrastructure which, with solar panels on rooftops, will help consumers better manage their electricity consumption.
The other currency with which modern economies are being reimagined is connectivity. Infrastructure has come to mean both information and brick and mortar highways — both of which our Group builds. Cities who deal with transport shortages and traffic congestion must work with business to sort out the ideal logistical arrangements — both physical and digital — which should ultimately connect via data the providers of goods and services directly with the consumer. The most efficient ecosystem is the direct connect digitally, between producers and consumers, linked by efficient logistics, and with fewer intermediaries. This is now possible with technology.
Back in the real world — earlier this year, we opened the 8.9 km Cebu-Cordova Link Expressway (CCLEX) in Cebu — the longest and tallest bridge in the country. We partnered directly with the local governments of Cebu City and Cordova, which we hope can become an archetype for Private Sector/LGU engagements in the future. We plan to build more roads here and abroad. On the connectivity side, PLDT has also been on an appropriate track. Last year, we laid out more domestic and international fiber than before, and added more than a million Home Broadband Fiber customers. Our goal to provide connectivity to anyone who needs it, wherever the location, remains inviolate. And we want to make the Marcos administration’s universal connectivity initiative a reality.
Finally, on the health side, our hospitals saw a lack of manpower — particularly nurses — which became one of the major bottlenecks to our Covid response. There were instances where available beds could not be filled because no one could man them. The President’s support for a Medical Reserve Corps Act, which will allow him to mobilize such a group during a public health emergency, is timely. And a development such as this will result in more healthcare professionals in the pipeline.
FINALLY President Marcos Jr.’s SONA gave us a spacious idea of the government’s position on various areas, and it was comforting to hear that his administration is taking a thorough, pragmatic approach to the challenges confronting the country. Indeed, there is much work ahead. But the most dangerous takeaway would be to think that that work should fall on the shoulders of government alone. If we want to level up with our neighbors like Indonesia, we must not simply match their dedication, but exceed it. That means all of us — including us from the private sector. When we are able to work together — like a basketball team — the passion, creativity, and inherent ingenuity of our people will carry us through. This should supply us with the optimism which had vacated us these many years. Perhaps it is also what encouraged the President to close his SONA with these hortatory words — that despite everything, “the State of the Nation is sound.” I couldn’t agree more.
Manuel V. Pangilinan is the president, chairman, and chief executive officer (CEO) of Metro Pacific Investments Corporation. He is the managing director and CEO of Hong Kong-based investment management and holding company, First Pacific Company Limited, with operations in the Asia-Pacific Region. He is also the chairman of PLDT, Meralco, Maynilad, Philex, TV5, Media Quest, and PXP Energy.
The young sub-editor sat stone-faced and unblinking before BusinessWorld’s brass early one morning, even as he was disappointed by the publisher’s outwardly lukewarm reception of a 1996 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit report which he had just presented. He had toiled on the report for weeks on end — conceptualizing the cover design and completely rewriting some articles — on top of work on regular pages that began at about 9 a.m. and stretched towards 10 p.m. daily.
It was just another brush with the exacting culture of quality he had struggled with since joining the publication as a reporter after leaving government service.
Sensing the newly promoted sub-editor’s discouragement, the city editor at that time took him aside. “Uy, dapat matuwa ka na ’nun. Ganun lang talaga si Boss magpuri ng trabaho (Hey, you should be glad. That is really just how Boss praises work.),” the senior editor said, referring to the late Raul L. Locsin who had founded the publication in July 1987. “Don’t expect a medal.”
Of course, talent management has improved by leaps and bounds since then, even as the focus on quality endures — it is probably one of the few things that has kept steady since BusinessWorld’s founding in mid-1987.
VETERANS’ TALES For some BusinessWorld vets, the publication’s story from the start has been characterized in part by an awareness of available tools to kick the business up even just a notch through ever-present hurdles.
Ronaldo A. Romero, who started as news editor when BusinessWorld began operations and retired as publisher in 2006, recalled how computerization of the newsroom back then had cut the time it took to produce the newspaper. “Little by little, we were able to put the paper to bed earlier than 12 midnight, then 11 p.m., until we were able to close at 10 p.m.,” he recalled in a recent chat.
Besides that, focal to competitiveness even then was the quality of talent and well-oiled newsroom operations. “It is noteworthy that we had only so many reporters, but were still able to put one or two over the other dailies,” Mr. Romero added, saying that one “major advantage” was the ability of newsroom staff to promptly support reporters in the field who needed background information before interviews or for articles.
Marvin A. Tort — a BusinessWorld columnist who had served as managing editor through years that saw resurgent political and economic uncertainties, punctuated by the 2005 resignation of some Cabinet secretaries and senior officials amid a top-level election controversy — remembered the constant struggle “to look for new ways to distribute content” as print subscription plateaued.
“We were somewhat ahead in the online space, but revenues were still driven by print, and circulation was not growing,” he explained. In that setting, the online platform ended up “competing rather than complementing” print.
Among others, BusinessWorld ventured into a content partnership with the ABS-CBN News Channel at that time, and while that did not bring in ad revenue, it generated “greater awareness,” Mr. Tort recalled.
“We also started a breakfast forum, organizing events for subscribers to attend,” he added, generating revenue from sponsorship.
The 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis made business even tougher, said Anthony L. Cuaycong, the publication’s former president who had been vice-president and chief operating officer at that time, noting that advertising slowed as “(t)he usual sources turned to papers with higher circulation, compelling management to think outside the box in order to enhance the paper’s value as an advertising medium.” At that time, he said, such efforts included coming up with special sections to lure specialized ads.
STANDARD FARE Challenges constantly knocking at BusinessWorld’s door notwithstanding, the publication has become standard fare for those monitoring the Philippine economy.
“To be effective in our work, my research team needs to know what’s in BusinessWorld each morning of each trading day, as we simply can’t afford to miss any major economic and financial market development,” Emilio S. Neri, Jr., lead economist at the Bank of the Philippine Islands, said in a recent interview.
“We find BusinessWorld articles a valuable source of information…,” he added, citing particularly the Quarterly Banking Report.
Peter Lee U, dean of the University of Asia and the Pacific’s School of Economics, who specializes in energy and industrial economics, said separately that BusinessWorld keeps him “posted on developments like the latest policy pronouncements of key government officials and business players, as well as releases of economic statistics.”
“When giving economic analyses and briefings to our public, one has to be aware of these developments,” he said.
“As an economics teacher, I use BusinessWorld reportage of developing and past issues to draw examples for my economics classes. This prevents economics lessons from remaining theoretical so that students can see it actually applies to real-life events, and thus understand how markets work,” he explained.
“In both cases, facts and figures need to be collected and monitored historically. To talk based on the latest numbers without knowledge of trends emerging from actual historical data is like shooting from the hip. Thus, I also go back to old news to give context, which is important as well in academic research.”
Still, newspapers have long since acknowledged the dire prognosis for print as a medium for content delivery. In fact, this had been a nagging planning topic after The Philippine Star took over BusinessWorld in mid-2015.
Major survey groups have provided an overall picture of the changed landscape of news consumption over the past two years, among others showing that close to half of Filipino adults (aged at least 18 years old) polled used the internet, with nearly all of that complement maintaining a Facebook account, almost half of those accessing the Web doing so to get news and just 1-3% relying on newspapers for such content. If anything, “internet use has been on a generally upward trend for all age and education groups since June 2006,” one of them — the Social Weather Stations — said in a September 2020 report. (1)
Jarring adjustments amid the disruption caused by the ongoing pandemic ironically provided the much-needed kick — making both editorial and business sense — towards digital space.
CHANGE HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN Miguel G. Belmonte, president and chief executive officer (CEO)of BusinessWorld and parent The Philippine Star, said earlier this month that fundamental principles will anchor the company as it dives further into the digital realm.
“BusinessWorld has always believed in and maintained the highest quality of journalism simply because this is what business readers deserve, whether they follow us on traditional platforms or on newer media channels. The important thing is that the quality of journalism will remain the same regardless,” Mr. Belmonte said.
“From a static medium, BusinessWorld was able to create new community of readers and followers in the digital space.BusinessWorld Insights and BusinessWorld Virtual Economic Forum became two of our most successful endeavors in the digital space. These were able to mitigate the impact of the pandemic in the last two years. Despite the challenges in 2020, we saw 2021 becoming profitable again and it looks like 2022 will be BusinessWorld’s most profitable year ever,” he added.
Miguel G. Belmonte, president & CEO of BusinessWorld Publishing Corp.
“On the other hand, we continue to embrace newer platforms to cater to the needs of our audience. The mission is quite simple: to remain the same by keeping our core values intact while evolving so that our brand is able to adapt to the changed media landscape.”
BusinessWorld’s current journey is mirrored in the wider business world.
In an effort to “build back better” as they claw their way out of the slump in the past two years, organizations are beating a path through an uncertain environment and fighting to survive through a pandemic, persistently fast-rising prices, successive interest rate increases, the fragile recovery of the overall economy and the growing risk of a global recession next year.
The internet is replete with prescriptions from consultancies and international organizations for those sailing further into such uncharted waters.
In its 2022 Global Risks Report, for example, the World Economic Forum isolated five emerging best practices in organizations’ quest for resilience:
• Identify specific types of failure or damage that could hit core business goals in order for organizations to gain a better appreciation of their capabilities and available tools that may have to be deployed, redesigned or improved.
• View vulnerabilities within a broader ecosystem that includes third parties on which organizations rely.
• Emphasize “just-in-case reliability” rather than “just-in-time efficiency” by putting backups and redundancies in place to ensure that the organization can adapt quickly for business continuity. In this effort, “(s)upportive employee behaviors are as vital as structural measures, especially when empowered by good leadership and effective communication,” the report said.
• Connect resilience efforts with environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals. “For example, shortening supply chains can advance net zero strategies as well as reduce exposure to adverse geoeconomic developments, while strong community relations may help recovery initiatives in the event of a disaster,” it said.
• Consider resilience as a journey and not as a target and constantly be alert to changing circumstances that could result in fresh blind spots and gaps that, in turn, would warrant urgent new adjustments.
For Bain & Company, “getting business resilience right” means staying on one’s toes to spot vulnerabilities as they emerge and improve scenario planning to prepare as best one can for the unforeseen.(2)
First off, “(t)here is no way you’re going to remove volatility,” Dunigan O’Keeffe, Bain’s head of Global Strategy practice, said in a January 2021 video discussion. And that, in a way, is a good thing. Amid all the talk these days about agility, his remarks bring to mind a principle behind new-generation fighter jets’ supermaneuverability (as seen in Top Gun: Maverick) — they are designed to be so inherently unstable they would drop like rocks were it not for onboard computers that keep them steady via microsecond adjustments.
Bain Director James Allen separately described the pandemic as “a dress rehearsal for a new, more turbulent world.” “…(W)ithout that pandemic, you’d still be heading for a new, more turbulent world. You just wouldn’t have had the dress rehearsal,” he said in another video. “… (H)ow adaptable are you to more turbulence?” (3)
“There’s this issue that you’re preparing for yesterday’s ‘(black) swan’ event. Right, you had a problem with commodity pricing and now you’re hedging. Turns out that the next one event is a technology problem. That’s a big issue,” Hernan Saenz, Bain’s global head for Performance Improvement practice, explained in the January 2021 video. “And the other one is to just cover certain areas, right: the ones you’ve covered in the past and the ones that you read about in the news. But now, you have to cover everywhere — your strategy, your operations, your organization, your technology. So you don’t want surprises in any big angle of your business.”
Lessons have been myriad: from having leadership positions in various parts of the company’s portfolio, to being aware of which business segments risk being very stressed in a crisis, to a culture and structure (i.e., empowering local teams more) “close enough to the frontline with the customer, such that you see those crises early and are able to respond,” to cite just a few.
Turning to the global challenge of worsening inflation, Bain said that companies that improve productivity by cutting costs and spending better, while adjusting prices and finding new sources of growth will “weather the storm best.” It noted that the current inflationary period differs from the last one in the early months of the 2008 global recession in that labor markets are tighter and supply chains are more constrained, though consumer demand has not dipped the way it did then. “As they prepare for higher inflation in this new environment, companies will need to make moves that not only cut costs but also build more scalable growth platforms, positioning them to strategically reinvest in programs that deliver greater resilience and stronger purchasing and pricing capabilities,” Bain said in an April 2022 article. “They need cost programs that allow them to grow top-line revenue and reduce their dependence on difficult labor markets while improving employee retention.” (4)
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) identified a number of priorities for corporate leaders this year. (5)
The list includes figuring out which features adopted amid the pandemic that enabled an organization to respond quickly to contingencies, like breaking down traditional barriers as well as forming and empowering small teams to address key challenges, to keep. The company can then deploy more resources to scale up and then integrate what works in these teams. “Competing on innovation velocity should be a pressing priority for 2022,” said Karalee Close, BCG’s managing director and senior partner, as well as global leader for Technology Advantage.
ESG may also be catching on, but “make sure your company’s good deeds are profitable and scalable,” said Richard Hutchinson, BCG managing director and senior partner, as well as global leader for Social Impact practice. “Investors, employees, governments, and other stakeholders increasingly expect companies to work for the public good. These expectations have risen dramatically in just the past few years,” he said. “My advice is that if you want to make a real social impact, find something you can do profitably. Because if it’s profitable, it’s scalable. And if a solution is scalable, it can be really powerful.” The trick, Mr. Hutchinson said, is to find ways to incorporate such initiatives into the core business.
Organizations also need to rethink and recalibrate their talent management framework, said BCG Managing Director and Senior Partner Deborah Lovich. That, she said, involves finding out what makes key workers tick or dissatisfied and then collaborating with them to craft better structures and arrangements that would be good for both them and the business.
Finally — for those considering adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) — there is a need to first understand AI’s full potential for one’s business before moving forward, said François Candelon, BCG managing director and senior partner, as well as global director of its Henderson Institute think tank. “CEOs know that it’s important and are ready to make serious investments,” Mr. Candelon said of AI. “But many don’t really understand what to do with it. To borrow a French saying, it’s like giving a knife to a chicken. Not surprisingly, only around 10% of companies say that they see significant financial returns on their AI investments, according to a recent study we at BCG conducted with MIT Sloan Management Review.”
Zeroing in on digital transformation, McKinsey & Co. said that while most organizations have dived into digitalization to varying degrees, “simply getting projects off the drawing board doesn’t guarantee that the organization is increasing revenue, profitability, market share, efficiency, or competitive moats as a result.” Besides having the top brass engaged in this effort, ensuring success would require prioritizing scalable initiatives that will substantially improve organization performance, focusing on minimally viable outcomes that can be improved over time, as well as measuring and tracking the impact and value creation of digital initiatives. (6)
“To maximize returns, we recommend transforming one business domain at a time and broadening from there for traction and coherence,” Laura LaBerge, director of Capabilities for Digital Strategy at McKinsey’s Stamford, Connecticut, office as well as senior partners Kate Smaje and Rodney Zemmel said in a June 2022 article. Focusing on one critical process or function at a time, they said, “allows organizations to leverage similar data sets, technology solutions, and team members for multiple use cases, which ultimately saves time and expense.” (7)
They also noted that, among others, use of digital technologies to achieve competitive differentiation in terms of customer engagement and innovation, rather than to merely achieve cost efficiencies, would have better chances of reaping these investments’ full value.
IN A STATE OF FLUX Our 35th anniversary report now seeks to provide an idea of how environments have changed for a selection of industries and sectors and what stakeholders there have been doing or can do, not only to cope but also to thrive.
If anything, BusinessWorld’s own migration to the digital realm amid continuing disruption remains a work in progress. A process that accelerated a quarter after the declaration of a pandemic in March 2020 has given this publication a slew of brands in its digital portfolio, including the BusinessWorld Virtual Economic Forum; BusinessWorld B-Side podcasts available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Anchor; BusinessWorld Insights online discussion with experts; BusinessWorld In-Depth Magazine that now includes the Quarterly Banking Report; BWorld Lounge Viber community; and BusinessWorld One-on-One virtual interviews with top government and private sector leaders, among others.
Coming up are even more initiatives as we maximize the digital potential of BusinessWorld’s content and services. So please stay tuned.
(1)For details of the Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations surveys from late 2019 to late last year, go to https://www.pulseasia.ph/september-2021-nationwide-survey-on-news-sources-and-use-of-the-internet-social-media-and-instant-messaging-applications/ and https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20200908150946.
(2)Dunigan O’Keeffe, Hernan Saenz, Andrew Schwedel, and Thomas Devlin, “Getting business resilience right,” https://www.bain.com/insights/getting-business-resilience-right/; “Dispelling Five Myths on Business Resilience, https://www.bain.com/insights/dispelling-five-myths-on-business-resilience-video, Jan. 7, 2021.
(3)James Allen, “Roadmap for a post-pandemic world,” https://www.bain.com/insights/roadmap-for-a-post-pandemic-world-video, 7 April 2021.
(4)Jaxon Heinrich, Simon Henderson and Megan Portanova, “Turning inflation disruption into value with six strategic steps,” https://www.bain.com/insights/turning-inflation-disruption-into-value-with-six-strategic-steps/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mkto&utm_campaign=OPT-q2-best-of-bain-insights-2022-07-06&utm_term=turning-inflation-disruption-into-value-with-six-strategic-steps&mkt_tok=Mzc4LU5ZVS0yMjAAAAGFdIBJ7R-mYDLZjs60DgZdBqelF2W00RGF8Wot1M5fPkIDJgXjtZ0FsEqG09-hMayL7k_Lkc5virk91aS55GvfnLfB07s6UPnuaY5R2IZ0, April 18, 2022.
(5)Priorities for the C-Suite in 2022, https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/c-suite-executive-priorities-2022, Jan. 10, 2022.
(6)Matt Fitzpatrick and Kurt Strovink, “How do you measure success in digital?” https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/how-do-you-measure-success-in-digital-five-metrics-for-ceos, Jan 21, 2021.
(7)Laura LaBerge, Kate Smaje and Rodney Zemmel, “Three new mandates for capturing a digital transformation’s full value,” https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/three-new-mandates-for-capturing-a-digital-transformations-full-value, June 15, 2022.
NEDA Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan will have to strike an uneasy balance as he formulates economic policy for the Marcos administration.
On one hand, he must continue the infrastructure programs of the Duterte administration as these are necessary investments for our economic future. At the same time, a deluge of new investments must be made to elevate our education system, broaden healthcare services and provide social protection for the poorest among us through the conditional cash transfer program. All these necessitate massive spending on the part of the government.
On the other hand, he must tighten belts. The Marcos administration inherited an economy that operates on a deficit -— one only bridged by debt. From a public debt of roughly P5.9 trillion in 2016, debt ballooned to P12.68 trillion as of January this year, representing 63.5% of GDP. In other words, the Philippines owes P63.5 pesos for every P100 worth of goods and services she produces. Our debt-to-GDP ratio surpasses the government’s own self-imposed limit of 59.1% and the international standard for developing countries of 60%.
So Secretary Balisacan is under pressure to spend more on infrastructure and social services while slashing expenses and avoiding the take-up of new loans.
Putting a stop to ongoing infrastructure projects is out of the question as it is bad practice and will send an unfavorable signal to investors, Mr. Balisacan has said. As of April 2021, just 12 out of 119 flagship infrastructure projects have been completed. Another seven should have been completed by the time Mr. Duterte stepped down, if the former President’s spokesmen are to be believed. That leaves 100 projects still in the pipeline, all of which require funding.
The Marcos administration intends to sustain infrastructure spending at 5.5% of GDP in 2022, 5.4% in 2023 and 5.3% in 2024 and 2025.
Meanwhile, budget appropriations for education, healthcare and social protection must increase by at least 40%, 30% and 20%, respectively, to make an impact. Investing in health and human capital capacitation is an equally important investment in our economic future.
And then there is debt service. Mr. Duterte left Mr. Marcos with P834 billion in debt falling due this year; roughly 4.2 trillion will be falling due within the decade.
Difficult as it may seem, performing this balancing act is possible. However, it will require the adoption of radical policies.
The first is to crack down on budgetary leakage. Few are aware that as much as 15% of the national budget is lost to graft and corruption. This amount was validated by a senior official of the Department of Budget and Management. Graft and corruption come by way of procurement overpricing, ghost purchases, ghost payrolls, congressional pork barrel funds, frivolous budget insertions, etc. To better appreciate the scale of budgetary leaks at present, the volume of public funds thought to be lost to graft and corruption is nearly enough to pay our debt service bill this year.
There is no way out of it -— graft and corruption must be culled to get maximum value out of the national budget. This will entail sacrifices from those that benefit from it most — the legislature and grafters from the Executive branch.
Second is to spread the cost of infrastructure. The funding requirement of the 100 remaining flagship projects is well over P4 trillion. Mr. Duterte’s preference for loans (through official development assistance) is simply not sustainable. Fitch’s negative outlook on the Philippines, as affirmed in February, underscores the need to adjust the funding mix for infrastructure development.
Mr. Balisacan was correct when he said that private capital must be tapped to help foot the infrastructure bill. The Philippine playbook on public-private partnerships (PPP), developed during the Aquino administration, is so advanced that it has been used as a template by the governments of Thailand, Indonesia, India and Poland, among others. It will be foolish not to tap the wealth of private capital for projects where private participation is warranted, especially considering our vast experience in undertaking PPP projects. Besides, the private sector has consistently proven that it can build, operate and maintain projects more efficiently than government can. By leveraging PPP, infrastructure projects that would have required a cash outlay on the part of the government will instead become a source of income by way of royalties and taxes.
Although Mr. Balisacan has ruled out canceling infrastructure projects, I still think that certain projects need to be reviewed. Poorly managed projects must be rationalized or privatized. Those that garnered a negative report from the Commission on Audit must be subject to cancellation. One of them is the Kaliwa Dam Project. The CoA reported that there was a simulated bid among Chinese contractors in favor of the winner, China Energy Engineering Corp. Projects tainted with corruption from the get-go should have no place in the current administration. Similarly, projects that employ majority foreign workers should be canceled or reconfigured as they leave out Filipino laborers at the Philippine government’s expense.
Third, increase tax collection. Government’s tax collection efficiency is about 15.5% of GDP today. It is simply not enough to bridge the budget gap, which stood at 8.6% of GDP or P1.67 trillion last year. Mr. Balisacan and the rest of the economic team aspire to gradually reduce the budget deficit to 7.6% in 2022, 6.1% in 2023, 5.1% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said that he is not inclined to impose new taxes. Instead, he would rather increase collection efficiency by automation and by cracking down on tax delinquents, tax evaders and smugglers. One wonders if the family with the biggest tax delinquency, the Marcoses themselves, will be made to settle their P23-billion estate tax obligation. Not to do so will be unfair to the rest of the Filipino people who will surely be pressured by the BIR to pay up.
Fourth is to have the economy grow its way out of its debt. If the economy is able to grow by at least 7% per year until 2025 and 6% until 2028, we will be able to bring down our debt ratios to manageable levels and service debt with ease. Growing by this rate will make the Philippines a half-trillion-dollar economy by 2025.
Mr. Balisacan hit the nail on the head when he said that investment should be channeled to bring about the resurgence of agriculture and manufacturing. These sectors have been in steady decline, such that they now comprise less than 40% of economic output today. It is the reason why we have become import-dependent for the majority of our needs. The situation is so bad that we import basic food products, including rice, sugar and pork, and basic manufactured goods such as textiles and construction materials.
Increasing agriculture and manufacturing output will reduce our import bill, increase export and tax revenue, and reduce our trade deficit.It makes sense to focus time and resources on these sectors. It will also generate jobs to reduce our 5.7% unemployment rate.
We cannot do it alone. We need foreign direct investment not only for the agriculture and manufacturing space but also for infrastructure and technology-driven industries. FDIs are the silver bullet that can solve our budgetary gaps and accelerate our development.
There have been breakthroughs, facilitated by the Duterte administration, which made the Philippines more competitive in attracting FDI. The recent passage of amendments to the Public Service Act, the Foreign Investment Act and the Retail Trade Liberalization Act have opened up more sectors to foreign ownership. The amendments override the prohibitive provision in the 1987 constitution relating to foreign investment. The CREATE Law has made us regionally competitive in terms of taxation.
But these are not enough. The next administration must institute reforms to reduce red tape and unease in doing business. This is true on both the national and local levels. Automation and digitization are key to addressing these. Other areas needing resolution are power security and cost, water security and, most important, the credibility and speed of the justice system.
Striking a balance between aggressive spending and belt-tightening is a challenge. But it can be done. The good thing is that Mr. Balisacan and the rest of the economic team have a well-considered path forward.
Andrew J. Masigan writes the Numbers Don’t Lie column for BusinessWorld. His e-mail address is andrew_rs6@yahoo.com. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan