SEOUL – South Korea reported 7,850 new coronavirus cases for Tuesday, its highest daily total, as breakthrough infections among those already vaccinated continue to spike, with the number of patients in serious condition also reaching a fresh high at 964.
Daily tallies of infections shot past 7,000 for the first time last week, just days after passing the 5,000 mark, putting ever greater strains on the country’s medical capacity.
Total infections in the pandemic so far have risen to 536,495, including 128 cases of the Omicron variant, with 4,456 deaths, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum warned on Wednesday that the government is considering reimposing strict distancing curbs including a ban on gatherings and a curfew on dining in eating establishments. An official announcement is expected on Friday.
South Korea has fully vaccinated more than 94% of its adults so far, and is accelerating its ongoing campaign promoting booster shots by shortening intervals for all ages.
But the number of new cases has been spiralling since authorities eased distancing rules last month as part of a ‘living with COVID–19‘ policy. – REUTERS
The vaccine made by Sinovac Biotech Ltd., one of the most widely used in the world, does not provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize the omicron variant, said Hong Kong researchers in initial lab findings that may have sweeping consequences for the millions of people relying on the Chinese shot to protect them against COVID-19.
Among a group of 25 people fully vaccinated with Sinovac’s shot, which is called Coronavac, none showed sufficient antibodies in their blood serum to neutralize the omicron variant, said a statement from a team of researchers at the University of Hong Kong released late Tuesday night.
In a separate group of 25 fully vaccinated with the messenger RNA shot developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, five of them had neutralizing ability against the new variant, the scientists said. That’s in line with findings released last week by the companies, who said a third shot would be sufficient to protect against omicron.
Led by Kwok-Yung Yuen, the highly respected professor in infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, the study of 50 people has been accepted for publication in the medical journal Clinical Infectious Diseases and is available online as a pre-print.
While much is still unknown about how Sinovac’s shot reacts to omicron — including how T cells, the immune system’s weapon against virus-infected cells, will respond — the findings are a blow to those who have received the 2.3 billion doses of Coronavac shipped out, mostly in China and the developing world. With omicron seen to be at least four times as transmissible as the delta variant in a Japan study, the prospect of having to re-vaccinate against the new strain will set back the world’s efforts to exit the pandemic.
If Sinovac is found in more conclusive studies to be ineffective against omicron, China, which has managed to insulate the vast majority of its people from COVID-19 with closed borders and strict containment measures, faces the biggest threat from the new variant, said experts. The government has given out 2.6 billion homegrown shots — many of them Coronavac — to its population of 1.4 billion people, but now faces the prospect of having to develop new vaccines and rolling them out again before it can shift away from its current isolationist stance.
Among other countries using Coronavac, previous infection waves would have conferred some natural immunity that will help ensure “no major impact” from omicron, said Benjamin Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong.
But the populations in mainland China and Hong Kong have experienced no large-scale infection before, leaving them vulnerable.
“The Chinese authorities have worked hard to have a high vaccination rate across the country but the mutability of the virus means that the impact of those efforts has been significantly reduced,” said Nicholas Thomas, an associate professor at the City University of Hong Kong who has edited several books on foreign policy and public health.
“The two-fold challenge now facing China is how to ensure that their population is again protected from omicron and any future mutations, plus managing the flows of goods and people over their borders when the rest of the world is moving to live with the virus,” he said.
The country has detected two omicron cases so far in returning travelers, with one of them being discovered over two weeks after he entered China.
The Hong Kong research team has exported the isolated omicron virus to China’s government and vaccine manufacturers for development of the vaccines targeting the new variant, they said. Sinovac said last week that it was studying how its vaccine holds up against omicron but gave no timeline for releasing results. The Beijing-based company did not immediately reply to requests for comment on the Hong Kong University findings.
The scientists also advised members of the public to get a third vaccine dose as soon as possible, while awaiting the next generation of shots. But whether a third dose of the present Sinovac vaccine will improve the neutralizing antibody response against the omicron variant remains to be determined, they said.
Antibodies, which the researchers studied, are one important arm of the immune response that protect people from infection. The other arm of the immune response is cell mediated immunity — known as T-cell response — which can protect people from serious illness and death. — Bloomberg
PHNOM PENH – Cambodia has detected the country’s first case of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus in a local woman who had travelled from Ghana, the ministry of health said.
The 23-year old woman had returned from Ghana via Dubai and Bangkok, the ministry said in a statement issued on Tuesday.
The woman, who was 15 weeks pregnant, had been admitted to hospital for treatment, it said.
The Southeast Asian nation reopened its borders last month to vaccinated tourists after achieving one of Asia’s highest COVID-19 vaccination rates, with more than 88% of its 16 million people now inoculated. – REUTERS
SAN FRANCISCO – The U.S. agency charged with defending the country against hacking said on Tuesday the majority of attacks it has seen using a recently disclosed flaw in widely used open-source software were minor, with many of them seeking to hijack computing power to mine cryptocurrency.
Officials at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said they had not confirmed reports by multiple security companies of ransomware installations or attempts by other governments to steal secrets.
“We are not seeing widespread, highly sophisticated intrusion campaigns,” Eric Goldstein, executive assistant director for cybersecurity at CISA, said in a call with reporters.
But he warned the threat would continue to evolve and the agency was still working to assemble reliable information on what types of software were subject to the attacks.
He said it was possible widespread consumer devices such as routers were vulnerable and his unit within the Department of Homeland Security was working with vendors to have them deploy fixes where needed.
The flaw was found in a common logging tool, known as Log4j, and it is carried forward by at least hundreds of other programs that rely on the tool. Goldstein said the flaw is easy to exploit.
Although a patch in the tool has been available since Dec. 6, many of those other programs also have to implement the patch to ensure an attacker cannot get deep network access.
Under recently granted powers, CISA has directed all federal agencies to install patches as they become available.
Goldstein said there have been no reports of intrusions using the vulnerability in the government, but CISA expects “all manner of adversaries” to seek to exploit the flaw.
The logging function allows users to submit live code referring to an outside repository, which the program will then seek out and install. Hackers can use that to take control of the servers, which may have access to other machines with more valuable data or network powers.
Though the flaw has existed in the free Log4j program for years, it was recently discovered by a researcher at Chinese tech company Alibaba and reported to the group of volunteers who maintain the program. Open discussion within the Chinese security company was detected and some exploitation of the flaw began before the Apache Software Foundation could issue the patch.
Goldstein said it was “concerning” any time a flaw is exploited before a patch is out. Under recent Chinese regulations, some security professionals must report their findings to the government quickly, often before patches are ready.- REUTERS
Economic activity is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as mobility curbs are further eased. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
By Jenina P. Ibañez, Senior Reporter
ECONOMIC MANAGERS raised the gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 5-5.5% for this year, citing the continued easing of lockdowns and the uptick in business activity.
The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) at a press briefing on Tuesday said it had raised the GDP growth target from the downgraded 4-5% goal given in August.
“As we continuously relax restrictions and increase mobility, economic performance is expected to accelerate further in the last quarter of the year,” the economic team said after a special meeting on Tuesday.
The DBCC expressed optimism that the country’s GDP would “return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022.”
The medium-term growth targets were kept at 7-9% for 2022, and 6-7% for 2023 and 2024.
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the government is still waiting for health experts’ conclusions on the effects of the Omicron variant.
“So far, what is important is that we control our borders so that we allow the core majority to continue a safe living within the borders,” he said at the news briefing.
“The (COVID-19) cases have been falling significantly. Severe and critical cases are very low.”
The Health department reported 235 coronavirus cases on Tuesday, bringing the total active cases to 10,526.
DBCC said the 2021 inflation would hit 4.3%-4.5% from the previous 2-4% estimate, while the 2-4% forecast was kept for 2022 to 2024.
The foreign exchange rate was revised to P49-50 a dollar from P48-53.
The DBCC also raised the growth target for exported goods to 16% this year from the 10% it projected at the July meeting, and kept the 6% annual growth forecasts for 2022-2024.
Imported goods are expected to grow by 30% this year, higher than the 12% seen previously.
The price of Dubai crude oil per barrel is now projected at $68-70 this year from the previous projection of $50-70 per barrel from 2021 to 2024.
“The assumption for the price of Dubai crude oil per barrel was revised upwards to $60 to $80 per barrel for 2022 to 2024. This is mainly due to the optimistic demand outlook for oil as the global economy gradually rebounds in the medium term,” the economic team said.
The DBCC increased its revenue outlook to P3.027 trillion this year, higher than the programmed P2.881 trillion, due to increased economic activity and improved digitalization by revenue agencies.
Revenue projections for the next three years were raised to P3.3 trillion (from P3.29 trillion) in 2022, P3.62 trillion (from 3.59 trillion) in 2023, and P4.049 trillion (from P4 trillion) in 2024.
The DBCC kept its spending projection of P4.95 trillion for 2022, and slightly raised spending to P5.06 trillion (from P5.02 trillion) in 2023 and P5.35 trillion (from P5.3 trillion) in 2024.
Budget Undersecretary Tina Rose Marie L. Canda said the combination of higher-than-expected revenues and lower-than-expected disbursements had affected spending this year.
“Some of our disbursement patterns — for instance for travel, for training — have been put on hold as a result of this pandemic and we haven’t anticipated that. That’s why disbursements are not as high as we expected them to be,” she said.
The 2021 disbursement would be 9.6% higher year on year, the economic team said.
“This is mainly attributed to the accelerated spending performance seen in infrastructure and other capital outlays, personnel services, transfers to local government units (LGUs), and equity and interest payments,” DBCC said.
The deficit ceiling was set at8.2% of GDP this year, lower than the 9.5% ratio previously adopted.
Meanwhile, the DBCC raised the deficit threshold to 7.7% of GDP in 2022, 6.1% in 2023, and 5.1% in 2024. The deficit ceiling was previously pinned at 7.5% of GDP in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 4.9% in 2024.
“While the threat of new COVID-19 variants may persist in the short term, we are now in a much stronger position to manage possible spikes in cases and safely reopen the economy to Alert Level 1 in January 2022,” economic managers said.
The Cabinet-level DBCC is composed of heads of the Department of Budget and Management, National Economic and Development Authority, Department of Finance, as well as the Executive Secretary. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas also sits as the committee’s resource institution.
Customers look for cheap clothes at a market in Taytay, Rizal. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
Shoppers look for bargains at a market in Taytay, Rizal amid the holiday season. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS
THE ASIAN Development Bank (ADB) raised its Philippine growth forecast for this year and 2022, amid a heightened coronavirus vaccination drive and a plunge in new cases.
In the supplement to the Asian Development Outlook 2021, the multilateral lender said it now expects the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.1% this year, from 4.5% given in September. It exceeds the government’s downgraded 4-5% target this year.
For 2022, GDP is expected to rise by 6%, from the previous projection of 5.5%. This is below the government’s 7-9% goal.
“The Philippine economy has shown impressive resilience,” ADB Philippines Country Director Kelly Bird said in a statement on Tuesday.
“Growth momentum has clearly picked up on the back of the government’s vigorous drive to vaccinate Filipinos against the COVID-19 virus. Public spending on infrastructure and continued vaccination of the population will help the country further accelerate its recovery in 2022.”
A 5.1% GDP growth this year would reverse the record 9.6% contraction in 2020, but is still lower than the pre-pandemic 6.1% expansion in 2019.
The multilateral bank said the country’s economic performance in the third quarter was a surprise as it expanded by 7.1% year on year.
Third-quarter growth was lower than 12% in the preceding quarter after lockdowns were reimposed to contain a Delta-driven surge in COVID-19 cases.
“Vaccination has allowed the economy to slowly reopen, boosting consumer and business confidence,” ADB said.
The government has accelerated its vaccine rollout and allowed people to move more freely. Daily COVID-19 infections have also dropped from the peak in September.
About 36.59% of Filipinos have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the Johns Hopkins University tracker showed.
Meanwhile, the ADB raised the inflation outlook for the Philippines to 4.4% for 2021 and 3.7% for next year due to soaring oil prices. These are higher than the September forecast of 4.1% and 3.5% for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Inflation in November eased to a four-month low of 4.2%, but remained higher than the central bank’s 3.3%-4.1% forecast for the month.
The ADB’s projection is higher than the central bank’s 2-4% target for the year.
THREAT FROM OMICRON The ADB reduced its growth forecast for developing Asia to 7% (from 7.1%) this year and to 5.3% (from 5.4%) in 2022, amid uncertainty brought by the emergence of the Omicron variant.
“The main risk to the outlook remains a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Recent developments in Europe show that extensive virus outbreaks can occur even in highly vaccinated countries and force governments to retighten mobility restrictions. The emergence of the highly mutated Omicron variant brings additional uncertainty,” the ADB said.
“As it appears to be significantly more transmissible than earlier variants, its economic impact could be substantial.”
In developing Asia, the bank noted new COVID-19 cases daily averaged 50,000 as of Nov. 30, 71% lower than the peak in August. Globally, new cases are on the rise, fueled by the new wave of infections in Europe.
For Southeast Asia, the ADB trimmed its outlook to 3% from 3.1% this year, but hiked its projection for next year to 5.1% from 5%.
“Subregional growth slowed modestly in Q3 2021 as mobility restrictions tightened in the quarter to curb the spread of the highly transmissible Delta coronavirus variant,” it said.
Moody’s Analytics said the global outlook is now “less exuberant” as the Omicron variant increases uncertainty in the near term, although the recovery momentum was unlikely to be derailed.
“The Omicron variant has driven (business) sentiment lower, as have supply-chain disruptions eating into inventories and hurting capacity to meet increased demand. While the economic recovery has yielded improved sales and employment intentions, caution has increased,” Moody’s Analytics Senior APAC Economist Katina Ell said in an analysis.
“Expectations into next year are mixed as uncertainty remains high.” — Jenina P. Ibañez
THE NATIONAL Government (NG) will borrow less from the domestic market next year to make way for private sector lending, the Bureau of the Treasury said.
National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon on Tuesday said the government would get 77% of its borrowing program from domestic lenders in 2022.
“We are borrowing less and reducing domestic (borrowings) at 77% instead of 81% to make room for the private sector with renewed lending following the opening of the economy,” she said in a Viber message to reporters.
Going into 2022, Ms. De Leon said the market would be looking at signals from the US Federal Reserve on a possible early rate liftoff and tapering of bond purchases.
The market would also watch the December inflation and the results of the Monetary Board meeting on Thursday, she said.
“Plus of course any update on the Omicron variant and the efficacy of vaccines against it,” Ms. De Leon said.
The US Federal Reserve would probably quicken the tapering of its bond-buying program, Reuters reported on Monday.
Philippine inflation in November eased to a four-month low of 4.2%, but remained higher than the central bank’s 3.3%-4.1% forecast for the month.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged at its last policy-setting meeting on Thursday.
Gross borrowings by the National Government had reached P2.75 trillion as of end-October, preliminary data from the Treasury bureau showed.
Year to date, the government’s debt accounted for 91% of the P3-trillion borrowing plan for the entire year.
For the first 10 months of the year, gross domestic borrowings stood at P2.29 trillion, while gross external borrowings reached P518.71 billion.
The government borrows from local and foreign creditors to finance a budget deficit that has widened since last year after a coronavirus pandemic stalled the economy and pulled down tax collections.
This year’s budget deficit is expected to reach 9.3% of gross domestic product. — Jenina P. Ibañez
A silhouette of a mobile device user is seen next to a screen projection of binary code in this picture illustration taken on March 28, 2018. — REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/FILE PHOTO
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has created a task force to investigate the alleged online banking fraud involving two local banks.
“We are forming a task force composed of cyber- and anti-money laundering specialists and legal officers to determine the root causes and possible control lapses involving the incident,” BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said at a briefing on Monday evening.
The task force was ordered to submit recommendations to Mr. Diokno within 30 days.
“Guided by relevant laws and regulations, penalties and/or sanctions may be imposed depending on the results of the examination,” he said.
The BSP will look into the banks’ vulnerabilities and possible noncompliance in managing cyber- and anti-money laundering risks.
Some customers of BDO Unibank, Inc. took to social media over the weekend to complain about unauthorized fund transfers from their accounts. The funds were then allegedly transferred to fictitious accounts at UnionBank of the Philippines.
UnionBank Chief Technology and Operations Officer Henry Rhoel R. Aguda said the bank had frozen nearly P5 million in the accounts involved in the incident.
“Right now, the bank has already frozen close to about P5 million in funds that would have been involved in the recent issue over the weekend and we’re making sure that those funds are safe,” Mr. Aguda said in a BusinessWorld Live interview.
BDO said it was processing the reimbursement claims of about 700 clients whose accounts were affected.
“We have requested our clients to go to their branch of account and submit documentation to get the refund. The bank will shoulder the losses perpetuated by this cyber-crime incident,” the lender said.
Meanwhile, National Privacy Commission head Raymund E. Liboro said they were in touch with data protection officers from BDO.
While cyber-hygiene and account protection should be promoted, Mr. Liboro said customers should not be solely blamed for these incidents. He said banks should invest more to beef up online security and prevent data breaches.
“The big responsibility to take care of the deposits is really shouldered by the banks,” he told ABS-CBN News Teleradyo. — Luz Wendy T. Noble
A BILL that would extend the validity of the 2021 budget would skip the bicameral conference committee after the House of Representatives adopted the Senate version on Tuesday.
The House adopted the Senate amendments to House Bill 10373, allowing for the measure to be transmitted to Malacañang for President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s signature.
Under the measure, appropriations under the 2021 General Appropriations Act, budgetary support to government-owned and -controlled corporations and financial assistance to local government units (LGUs), will be available for release and obligation until Dec. 31, 2022.
However, funds for personnel services will be made available for release, obligation, and disbursement until the end of next year.
Appropriations for the statutory share of LGUs will be available until funds are fully utilized and disbursed.
The construction of infrastructure projects, the delivery of goods and services, inspection, and payment must also be settled before the end of December next year.
After the end of the validity period, all unreleased appropriations and unobligated allotments will expire and revert to the unappropriated surplus of the general fund.
Except for LGUs, all balances of fund transfers between government agencies, instrumentalities, and departments not utilized, expended, or disbursed will also revert to the general fund.
The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said it had released 98.6% or P4.441 trillion of this year’s P4.5-trillion budget as of the end of November.
Congress leaders are still meeting in a bicameral conference committee to reconcile disagreeing provisions of the P5.024-trillion national budget for next year.
They hope to finalize the bicameral report and have it ratified by this week before they adjourn for the holidays.
President Rodrigo R. Duterte has approved similar legislation that extended the validity of the 2019 and 2020 national budgets. — Russell Louis C. Ku
FINANCE Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III is urging local government units (LGUs) to digitalize their tax processes as their share of National Government revenues surge in 2022.
Local governments will have to improve revenue collection as they become more accountable in providing constituents with basic services, he said in a statement on Tuesday.
A Supreme Court ruling expands the local governments’ share in national taxes starting next year, which the Finance department said would dampen spending efficiency because the National Government usually spends at double the pace.
President Rodrigo R. Duterte in June signed Executive Order (EO) 138 which transfers a number of basic services to LGUs by 2024. With this, the government is shifting programs and projects, worth an estimated P234.4 billion, to LGUs.
Mr. Dominguez said LGUs will have to develop electronic business registration and renewal as well as local tax and fee assessment and collection.
“The local governments must keep pace with this digital transition — starting with local government finance. The new economy will be highly digitized. All future processes will occur mainly online,” he said.
More government processes are being transitioned online as mobility restrictions during the pandemic prevented face-to-face transactions.
Mr. Dominguez said the National Government and LGUs should improve revenue generation to make the country’s fiscal resources last during the pandemic.
“Even as we stretch resources to stimulate the economy, we must continuously build up our fiscal resilience,” he said.
The DoF has identified debt management as a key issue as it transitions to the next administration in 2022.
Outstanding government debt ballooned to P10.2 trillion last year from P8.2 trillion in 2019 as the state ran big deficits to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. — Jenina P. Ibañez
THE PUBLIC should remain vigilant against scams related to the selling and donating of blood, according to the Department of Health (DoH) and National Voluntary Blood Services Program (NVBSP).
While the DoH has no data on the number of blood donation scams that were reported during the pandemic, the issue is alarming enough to merit informing the public, said Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario S. Vergeire.
“The DoH and NVBSP became aware of the national news aired [in September] regarding a family that was scammed by a ‘blood donor.’ Both the DoH and NVBSP condemn such acts,” she said to BusinessWorld in an e-mail. The health agency has come out with print advertisements to warn the public of these scams.
The aforementioned news report described a critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient with a rare blood type (AB+) in need of a blood transfusion. The patient’s family was scammed out of P5,000 by a stranger on Facebook who indicated willingness to donate blood, but first needed an upfront amount to pay for the fare to the hospital.
‘BLACK MARKET’ Blood donation scams are caused by patients in need of blood or blood products who are compelled to look for such outside authorized institutions, if or when the blood stocks in the hospital where the patient is admitted are not sufficient.
“I heard from one patient, a National Center for Mental Health employee, that there is a black market for blood,” said Dr. Manuel R. Velasco, Jr., a hematology fellow at the Makati Medical Center (MMC), in a Viber message to BusinessWorld. “This is difficult to do because blood transfer and networking can only be done between blood banks. There is a required cold chain for some of the blood, and time is an important factor.”
Dr. Velasco’s patient, however, insisted that a group exists that can get blood to anyone, anytime.
SAFE SOURCE The safest source of blood and blood products are from regular and unpaid volunteer blood donors, Dr. Vergeire said, as the prevalence of transfusion transmissible infections is lowest among this population. The DoH is encouraging volunteers to donate blood to provide a safe and sufficient supply.
According to the World Health Organization, 79 countries collect over 90% of their blood supply from voluntary unpaid blood donors. Fifty-six countries, on the other hand, collect more than half of their blood supply from family or paid donors.
The MMC blood bank has no control over paid donors and discourages direct blood donors because there is a tendency to lie in the screening process, said Dr. Velasco. “Although it does not affect the safety of the blood, and testing is standard, it may affect the safety of the donor,” he added. — with Brontë H. Lacsamana
To report blood scammers, contact the Department of Health and the National Voluntary Blood Services Program at (02) 89953846 or nvbsp1@doh.gov.ph.
The Omicron variant of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is now spreading rapidly. Early reports suggest Omicron causes less severe disease than other variants but it still poses a risk to the most vulnerable, with patients starting to arrive in hospitals.
Omicron also appears to have some ability to get around existing immunity, whether from vaccination or infection. However, it seems less able to do this when people are boosted with a third vaccine dose.
Because of this, booster programs are being accelerated. Here’s which vaccines are being used and what effect boosters are likely to have.
Unless there are strong reasons not to use them (such as having had a severe allergic reaction or other side-effect previously), Pfizer or Moderna are the preferred options.
These are the mRNA vaccines, which appear to be more effective as a booster dose compared to other COVID-19 vaccines, such as AstraZeneca. The recent Cov-Boost study, which investigated which vaccine type performed best when given as a third dose, found the mRNA vaccines gave the highest uplift in antibodies.
And if your first two vaccines don’t end up being the same as your booster, this is OK. Various studies (some awaiting review) have found that mixing doses is safe and leads to a strong immune response — even if you initially had the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Even before the arrival of Omicron, it was becoming clear that boosters were needed — data was showing vaccine protection declining after 90 days.
Indeed, a preprint (a piece of research still to be reviewed) suggests that 20 weeks after their second jab, people over 65 were only 37% protected against symptomatic COVID if they had been given the AstraZeneca vaccine. If they had been given Pfizer, this figure was 55% (though the corresponding estimates for protection against hospitalization were 76% and 91% respectively).
There’s little hard data yet on Omicron, but protection is likely to be lower still because of its mutations. Another preprint has tested antibodies in the blood of vaccinated people against the variant and found that they’re much less able to neutralize the virus.
Early real-world data produced by the UK’s Health Security Agency seems to confirm that protection is lower. It suggests that vaccine effectiveness against Omicron more than 25 weeks after a second vaccine dose was negligible for AstraZeneca and only about 35% with Pfizer. But after a booster, effectiveness was around 75%.
This is against symptomatic disease. The risk of severe disease after an Omicron infection is still not known, and neither is the effectiveness of a booster dose against severe disease.
However, given that vaccines and boosters have shown greater effectiveness against severe disease than against infection with other variants, we should expect protection against severe illness to be much greater than 75%.
Also, while Omicron is heavily mutated, it doesn’t have so many mutations in areas targeted by specific immune cells called cytotoxic T cells, which are thought to be important in reducing disease severity. This is another reason why it’s not unrealistic to expect much greater protection against severe disease. But it will be a while before this is confirmed.
Instead of aiming to vaccinate everyone by the end of January, the new target is to offer every adult in England a third dose by the end of the year. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are also all speeding up their rollouts.
Everyone in the UK over 18 — and everyone over 16 who is at risk, which includes those working in health and social care — is eligible. You just need to have had your second dose three months ago or more.
However, some may have to wait depending on where they live. All over-18s in England can come forward for a booster, but in Scotland and Northern Ireland only over-30s are able to get one right now, though this is expected to change shortly. People in Wales need to wait to be called.
Note that these booster doses are different from the third doses being offered to people with weakened immune systems, who may not have responded fully to their first two doses. People in this group only need to wait eight weeks from their second dose to book a third — and they’ll be eligible for an additional booster three months after this.
People in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland can book online for a booster. They can also go to a walk-in clinic. However, there may be queues — and there’s always the chance that stocks on the day may run out.
But with the recently announced new targets, it’s likely new vaccination centers will be opened — so check local news to see what’s available.
After you’ve had the booster, it takes a few days before the additional protection kicks in. A study in Israel found that protection starts to appear about seven days after the booster shot and then continues to increase for another week.
So after your booster, you shouldn’t assume you have any increased protection for at least another week to 10 days. You can still enjoy Christmas, but continue to be cautious — especially if you are, or have contact with, a vulnerable person. — The Conversation
Paul Hunter is professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England.
