By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter
DAILY coronavirus infections in Manila, the capital, and nearby areas might increase after the holiday season, a group of researchers said on Sunday, as the country faces more public health challenges brought about by one of the world’s strongest typhoons of the year.
Metro Manila might post 300 coronavirus cases daily in the coming days, OCTA Research Fellow Fredegusto P. David said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Right now we are not seeing it yet, but it is possible.”
The potential uptick in cases in Metro Manila becomes more evident after the infection rate increased recently, he said.
“The holiday uptick seems real because of the increase in positivity rate,” Mr. David said. “The uptick may be due to an increased number of gatherings during the holiday.”
The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who are positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) out of the total number of people tested during a certain period. It measures the spread of the infectious disease in a given area.
A positivity rate below 5% indicates that virus transmission is under control, according to the World Health Organization.
On Friday, Mr. David said the capital region’s positivity rate increased to 0.77 from Dec. 16 to Dec. 22, higher than the 0.62 infection rate from Dec. 12 to Dec. 18.
“The National Capital Region (NCR) remains at very low risk at this time but we will continue to monitor if trends will change,” Mr. David told BusinessWorld on Sunday.
He said hospitals were at low capacity. “The system will be able to absorb a surge at this time up to a certain level.”
In its latest monitoring report, OCTA said the reproduction number in the capital region increased to 0.70 last week from 0.42 in mid-December.
The 0.70 figure is also up from the 0.35 rate recorded from Nov. 29 to Dec. 5.
Still, the figure is well below the critical level of 1.4.
“If we compare this with last year, the reproduction number also spiked before the holidays, followed by a dip during the holidays (and) then an uptick by the first week of Jan. 2021,” Mr. David said in a report released on Sunday.
“The holiday uptick may explain the increasing reproduction number and positivity rate,” he added. “On the other hand, a continued increase in the reproduction number during the holidays would indicate a pattern not observed in Dec. 2020.”
NATIONWIDE
A potential spike in cases nationwide is expected by January, Ranjit S. Rye, another OCTA fellow, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. He did not elaborate.
Meanwhile, Mr. David told BusinessWorld that daily infections in areas affected by typhoon Odette, internationally known as Rai, might also increase.
“This happened last year, there was an uptick in Region 2 and Bicol region because of flooding.”
An estimated 550,000 people have been displaced by the typhoon, including those in evacuation centers or have sought shelter with relatives and friends.
The Department of Health has already warned the public of a possible outbreak of waterborne and food-borne illnesses in Odette-hit areas.
In the island province of Siargao, where the typhoon made its first of nine landfalls, a diarrhea outbreak has already been declared by local authorities.
Health and local authorities must continue ramping up efforts in other health programs “while COVID-19 cases are relatively lower than before and vaccination rollout seems stable,” Joey Francis Hernandez, treasurer of the Philippine Society of Public Health Physicians, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
The national government and local units should mobilize emergency funds and reallocate health staff for infectious disease surveillance and disaster response, he said.
“By this time, we can already safely redistribute resources which have been lowered in the priority list due to COVID-19.”
Mr. Hernandez said arresting a potential outbreak of diarrheal diseases, influenza-like diseases, leptospirosis, and dengue would reduce the burden on the country’s health system, which he said is already strained due to the coronavirus.
“Such refocusing now would prepare us in case another COVID-19 surge happens after the holidays.”
The public health expert, meanwhile, said local government units must ensure that strategies to mitigate the risks of infectious diseases during calamities are integrated in their health plans.
The government aims to fully vaccinate at least 54 million Filipinos by yearend, as it seeks to prevent an outbreak of the highly contagious Omicron variant.
Kezia Lorraine Rosario of the government’s vaccine operations center earlier said the heavily mutated Omicron variant might still spread locally despite the decreasing number of cases in the country.
Health authorities have already shortened the interval for booster shots against the coronavirus.
About 47.12 million Filipinos have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus as of Dec. 25, data from the Health agency showed. The government has already injected 1.37 million booster or additional doses, it added.
COVID TALLY
The Health department reported 433 new coronavirus infections on Sunday, bringing the total to 2.84 million.
The death toll from the coronavirus hit 51,200 after 13 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 283 to 2.78 million, it said in a bulletin.
There were 9,522 active cases, 458 of which did not show symptoms, 3,574 were mild, 3,339 were moderate, 1,777 were severe, and 374 were critical.
The agency said 91% of the reported cases occurred from Dec. 13 to 26. The top regions with cases in the recent two weeks were Metro Manila with 192, Calabarzon with 45, and Central Luzon with 33.
It said 38% of the reported deaths occurred in December, 23% in October, 15% in September, 8% in July, and 15% in March.
The Health department said 17% of intensive care units in the Philippines were occupied. The rate for Metro Manila was also 17%.
The agency said five duplicates were removed from the tally, all logged in as recoveries, while nine recoveries were relisted as deaths.
It said 169 patients had tested negative and were removed from the tally. “These 169 are recoveries.”
Two laboratories did not operate on Dec. 24, while six laboratories did not submit data.
“Based on data in the last 14 days, the 8 non-reporting labs contribute, on average, 0.7% of samples tested and 0.9% of positive individuals.”
