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Port projects awarded in Mindoro, Quezon and Batangas, PPA says

THE Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) said it recently awarded a number of port projects, including the expansion of Puerto Galera Port in Oriental Mindoro and San Andres Port in Quezon and the construction of an operations area at the Port of Calatagan in Batangas.

The Puerto Galera Port Expansion Project was awarded to Great Swiss Metal Builders Corp., according to a PPA notice of award dated Dec. 6, 2021. The project cost is P147.62 million.

The P176.54-million San Andres Port Expansion Project was awarded on Nov. 11 to RCE Global Construction, Inc.

Meanwhile, the construction of the port operations area at the Port of Calatagan was awarded to J. C. Piñon Construction, Inc. on Dec. 14. The project cost is P102.87 million.

The agency also awarded on Dec. 6 the P241.69-million civil works contract for the Port of Marawi in Lanao del Sur to Mamsar Const. & Industrial Corp. On the same day, MRBII Construction Corp. was awarded the P164.8-million Ambulong Port Expansion Project in Magdiwang, Romblon.

Mamsar was also awarded the contract to construct the wharf and port operations area, featuring a roll-on, roll-off ramp, at the Port of Catagbacan in Loon, Bohol. The project cost is P666.99 million.

On Jan. 4, Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade said that the government managed to complete 13 social and tourism port projects in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM. The projects include the construction of the Languyan Port and the Mapun Port.

Inaasahan natin na ang mga ito ay maghahatid ng enhanced maritime connectivity at mobility sa kani-kanilang mga lugar, at magbubukas rin ng mas maraming oportunidad sa ating mga kababayan (We are hoping that these will bring enhanced maritime connectivity and mobility in these areas, opening up opportunities to our countrymen),” he said in a statement.

Ang economic growth and development ay hindi dapat limitado sa malalaking lugar lamang. Ang buhay na kumbinyente at komportable ay dapat na umabot sa lahat. Walang tayong lugar na dapat pabayaan o kalimutan (Growth and development are not the preserve of large cities or towns. A life of convenience and comfort must reach everyone. We will not forget about or leave any parts of the country behind),” the official added. — Arjay L. Balinbin

Customs post-clearance audits for 2021 yield P1.5 billion in revenue

THE Bureau of Customs (BoC) collected over P1.5 billion in additional revenue in 2021 from post-clearance audits on importers.

The bureau in a statement on Friday said collections over the course of the year rose 25%.

Collections were generated from the 349 audit notice letters on tax declaration and payment errors issued to importers last year.

The bureau also plans to collect more revenue from pending post-clearance audits from 2019 to 2021.

BoC has filed 55 demand letters representing about P12.5 billion in revenue.

“These are now being referred to the BoC Legal Service for filing of the necessary collection suit,” the bureau said.

Post-clearance audits help generate revenue for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response, the BoC said.

The bureau collected P645.77 billion in total revenue in 2021, higher than the P630.21 billion posted in the last pre-pandemic year of 2019 as international trade rebounded after the 2020 economic downturn.

Collections last year also rose 20% from the P537 billion logged in 2020 and 4.7% above the bureau’s target for 2021.

The BoC attributed the revenue performance to improved valuation, operations against illegal imports, and improved compliance with customs laws.

Gradually improving import volumes and efforts to improve goods transport during the pandemic also contributed to higher collections, the BoC said. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Ceramic shower bases now subject to quality certification

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said ceramic shower bases will join the list of products required to undergo quality certification.

The DTI said in a statement on Monday that it issued Department Administrative Order (DAO) 21-08 adding the new product category to the certification list. The order took effect on Dec. 22.

Other products that require certification include bidets, lavatories, laboratory sinks, laundry sinks, service sinks, and utility sinks, urinals, and water closets.

These products will be tested for compliance with Philippine National Standard 156:2010, which will entail a structural integrity test. It also prescribes a minimum slope of 1% and maximum slope of 4% to the waste outlet.

“As time passes, the increase in the number of products being subjected (to) mandatory certification reflects the DTI’s continuing effort of upholding Filipinos’ right to safe and high-quality products and its responsibility to guarantee that what consumers utilize inside their homes serve their purpose,” Bureau of Philippine Standards Director Neil P. Catajay said.

The DTI said the shower bases can be certified under either the Philippine Standard (PS) safety certification mark licensing scheme, or the Import Commodity Clearance (ICC) for those imported without a valid PS license.

“To ensure strict compliance for ceramic shower bases, DTI monitoring and enforcement shall be conducted 24 months after the effectivity of DAO 21-08. After which, only ceramic shower bases bearing a valid PS Mark or ICC sticker shall be distributed in the local market,” the DTI said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave 

Compliance with the BIR in closing a business

Just when things were starting to feel normal again, 2022 came, and along with it a significant surge in COVID-19 cases. This pandemic has changed our lives in many ways. Lives were put on hold, some were overturned, and many people were lost. In the new normal, however, we have proven time and time again the Filipino’s resiliency and adaptability — always finding new ways to persevere and thrive despite challenges.

While some are still trying to pick up the pieces, others have found new opportunities in new business models that have thrived during the new normal. Living during the pandemic has made people realize that some types of business are not as profitable during the pandemic as others. This has led people to shift careers, start new businesses, and even close old businesses altogether. Some had to cut their losses by closing old unprofitable businesses and shifting to other more thriving ventures. But before moving on, there is still the necessity of closing out the old business with the government agencies for which the business was registered. There is a myriad of requirements when it comes to closing a business and some of the more burdensome ones are those involving Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) processes.

One common mistake of some taxpayers is thinking that when their businesses stop operating, they are automatically relieved from the obligation to file tax returns. Some taxpayers are unaware that there is a need to formally close their business with the BIR. Until the taxpayer files its business closure with the BIR, even with zero transactions, the taxpayer is still required to file regular tax returns indicated in the Certificate of Registration. Failure to file the tax returns will result in “Open Cases,” which pertain to the list of tax returns in the BIR’s system that are tagged as not filed or not submitted. Resolving these open cases, which would entail payment of penalties, is required before the old business can be formally cleared and closed with the BIR. It is worth noting that these open cases do not prescribe and will continue to accumulate regardless of the years of non-operation, unless the taxpayer properly applies for business closure with the BIR. Under the current rules, the penalty is P1,000 for every unfiled NIL tax return or attachment, provided that the aggregate amount of penalty does not exceed P25,000 during a calendar year. So, if the business stops operating and is not properly closed for a decade or more, the penalty could reach up to P250,000 and more if the taxpayer has tax deficiencies. Business failure is hard enough as it is, but having to deal with surprise onerous penalties is even worse.

Deregistering a business with the BIR requires the filing of a notice of closure or cessation of business to the RDO where it is registered, by accomplishing the prescribed registration updates form and submitting the required documents. Pursuant to Revenue Memorandum Circular No. 57-2020, the streamlined documentary requirements are as follows:

1. BIR Form 1905 (2 originals);

2. Death certificate, in case of death of an individual (1 photocopy);

3. List of ending inventory of goods, supplies, including capital good (1 original);

4. Inventory of unused sales invoices/official receipts (1 original); and

5. Unused sales invoices/official receipts and all other unutilized accounting forms (e.g., vouchers, debit/credit memos, delivery receipts, purchases orders, etc.) including business notices and permits as well as the Certificate of Registration (BIR Form 2303) subject for destruction to be witnessed by BIR personnel and officials (1 original).

And in case the taxpayer is transacting through a representative, the items below are additional requirements:

For Individual

6. Special Power of Attorney together with a valid government-issued ID of the taxpayer and authorized representative

For Non-Individual

7. Board resolution indicating the purpose and the name of the authorized representative or Secretary’s Certificate, together with a government-issued ID of the authorized representative

Upon submission of the documents, the taxpayer will be provided with a routing sheet and will be asked to go around the different sections of the BIR (i.e., Client Support Section, Compliance Section, Collection Section, and Assessment Section) to get clearance from each section. The taxpayer will be subjected to tax audit by the BIR to identify any unsettled open cases and tax liabilities. Getting the clearance could take months or years depending on the number of findings of the BIR upon audit.

During the process, the BIR needs to perform the following procedures to stop generating more open cases:

a. “End date” the tax types of the taxpayer;

b. Destroy/shred in the presence of the taxpayer or his authorized representative, the unutilized SI/ORs and other accounting forms, ensuring that the same will no longer be used as originally intended;

c. Return to the taxpayer the destroyed/shredded SI/ORs and other accounting forms for burning and/or proper disposition; and

d. Issue a Tax Clearance (to be released by the BIR district office) to the taxpayer applying for cancellation of TIN within 10 days from termination of its investigations and/or full settlement of the taxpayer’s liabilities, if applicable.

Although the BIR streamlined the requirements in line with the Ease of Doing Business Act (Republic Act No. 11032), the business closure process is still a long and tedious one for many taxpayers. Imagine having to endure the long lines at the BIR office and exposing yourself to the risk of COVID-19, and the necessity of coming back multiple times, in case of deficiencies, just for the sake of business closure compliance. Does this not sound dreadful and unsafe given our current circumstances?

With the ongoing pandemic, the uncertainty looming over the economy, and the prevalence of online platforms, maybe it’s time for the BIR to consider adopting a virtual business closure process, where taxpayers can submit requirements, similar to eAFS, eFPS and the like, not only reduce the burden on business owners who have had to endure the devastating effects of the pandemic, but also to reduce the risk of transmission of the virus. Another idea is adopting a program similar to the Information Systems used by schools and banks where the status of the user’s transactions/applications can be monitored online and where taxpayers may submit deficiency requirements from the comfort of their own home. Whether we like it or not, it seems the COVID-19 pandemic is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and our filing processes should be in step with the progress our society has made in learning how to live in the new normal.   

Let’s Talk Tax is a weekly newspaper column of P&A Grant Thornton that aims to keep the public informed of various developments in taxation. This article is not intended to be a substitute for competent professional advice.

 

Juvy H. De Jesus is a manager from the Tax Advisory & Compliance division of P&A Grant Thornton, the Philippine member firm of Grant Thornton International Ltd.

pagrantthornton@ph.gt.com

Philippines posts record 33,169 COVID infections

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

PRESIDENT Rodrigo R. Duterte might further tighten the lockdown in the Philippine capital and nearby cities, according to the presidential palace, as the country posted record coronavirus infections of more than 33,000 on Monday.

The Department of Health (DoH) reported 33,169 cases on Monday, probably spurred by the highly mutated Omicron variant, bringing the total to 3 million. The death toll hit 52,293 after 145 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 3,725 to 2.79 million it said in a bulletin.

The agency said 46% of 73,234 samples on Jan. 8 tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), way above the 5% threshold set by the World Health Organization.

There were 157,526 active cases, 4,994 of which did not show symptoms, 147,912 were mild, 2,858 were moderate, 1,461 were severe and 301 were critical.

DoH said 99% of the cases occurred from Dec. 28 to Jan. 10. The top regions with new cases in the past two weeks were Metro Manila with 18,535, Calabarzon with 7,443 and Central Luzon with 3,403 cases. It added that 2% of the deaths occurred in November, 12% in October, 36% in September and 15% in August.

The Health department said 86 duplicates had been removed from the tally, 73 of which were recoveries and two were deaths, adding that 124 recoveries were relisted as deaths. Ten laboratories failed to submit data on Jan. 8.

Also on Monday, the OCTA Research Group said the positivity rate in Metro Manila had exceeded 50%, which could mean that cases in the region were “close to the peak.”

“There is hope that the positivity rate is already stalling or in other words, it might be close to the peak,” OCTA fellow Fredegusto P. David told CNN Philippines.

“If it starts to peak, we may already start to see a downward trend next week,” he said. “But this is all preliminary. It is still early to say if it is already peaking.” Mr. David said the country might record as many 40,000 daily infections this month.

“If we hit 40,000 to 50,000, this would be close to the worst case because after that, we would be losing visibility already,” he said. “We won’t even see 100,000 cases because we’re only testing about 70,000.”

Testing czar Vivencio B. Dizon apologized for the slow turnout of test results, saying more people were getting tested amid the surge.

He also said a number of medical and laboratory technicians have caught the coronavirus. “They need to isolate themselves and they could not report for work,” he said in Filipino. “That’s our biggest challenge right now.”

The country’s pandemic task force has shortened to five days the quarantine period for coronavirus-stricken health workers who are fully vaccinated and do not show symptoms.

Mr. Dizon said the government might shorten the quarantine period for more people. “For now, the policy is only for healthcare workers.”

“Our experts are studying what other countries have been doing, like the United States and Europe, which shortened the isolation especially for vaccinated people,” he said. “That is being studied.”

Meanwhile, the government might raise the coronavirus alert in Metro Manila to Level 4 once its health system reaches the threshold, Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei B. Nograles told the ABS-CBN News Channel.

The government would not hesitate to raise the alert level if healthcare use tops 70%, he said. “We continue to manage the situation so we do not reach the threshold. That means making sure our healthcare is well enough to accommodate those who need to be hospitalized.”

The capital region is under the third of a five-scale alert system until Jan. 15.

Mr. Nograles said an area with high levels of virus growth, average daily attack and healthcare use rates will be placed under Alert Level 4. The metro’s first two metrics are high, while healthcare use was moderate, he added.

On Monday, the Health department said 38% of intensive care units (ICU) in the Philippines were occupied, while 41% of isolation and ward beds had been used. In Metro Manila, 52% of ICUs and 54% of isolation beds were occupied, while 67% of ward beds had been used.

Health advocates have been urging the government to raise the quarantine level in Metro Manila and boost containment measures to contain the surge probably spurred by the highly contagious Omicron variant, which they said could exhaust the country’s health system.

State decisions on quarantine have failed to take into account health workers, who are the pillars of the country’s pandemic response, said Joshua L. San Pedro, co-convenor of the Coalition for People’s Right to Health.

Mr. San Pedro, a doctor, said the government had yet to consider the availability of health workers in setting the alert level for an area.

“With the health system chronically understaffed and far from the ideal health worker-to-population ratio, we are now seeing the effect of that shortage when those who are going on duty are being afflicted by what is likely a very infectious variant,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

He added that instead of addressing the shortage, DoH has “resorted to shortening quarantine and isolation periods, which might put more staff and patients at risk of potential outbreaks in facilities.”

“Two years and two surges later, the gov’t does not seem to have learned anything,” said Gene A. Nisperos, a board member of the Community Medicine Development Foundation, Inc.

“Even the metrics it uses, which was not much helpful in the past two surges, is the same,” he said in a Messenger chat, noting that very little was done when cases were declining about the shortage in health workers.

“The problem of severe understaffing remains unaddressed,” the doctor said.

Roldan Clumia, president of the St. Luke’s Medical Center Employees Association, said in a Messenger chat many health workers had yet to receive their special risk allowances promised by the government.

In a letter dated Jan. 10, the Private Hospital Workers Alliance of the Philippines urged the Health department to cover all health workers for benefits provided by law.

Senators say it’s too late to push changes to 1987 Constitution

PHILIPPINE STAR/ PAOLO ROMERO

A PROPOSAL at the House of Representatives to lift presidential term limits through a constituent assembly is too late, senators said on Monday.

“Parliamentary ethics dictates that I do not question the motive of a fellow legislator, but what I can say is, it’s too late in the day,” Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III said in a Viber message.

“They should try that in the 19th Congress. Good luck,” added the lawmaker, who is running for vice-president next year.

Pampanga Rep. Aurelio D. Gonzales, Jr., a member of the ruling PDP-Laban party on Friday proposed the charter change, noting that the Philippine president should have a term of five years with a chance of one reelection. The 1987 Constitution bars the president, whose term runs for six years, from running for reelection.

“I don’t think there’s still time to tackle any measure that involves charter change,” Senator Panfilo M. Lacson, Sr. said in a Viber message in mixed English and Filipino. “If in the previous years it did not happen, it especially won’t happen now that we have only nine session days left not including the joint session of Congress to convene as the National Canvassing Board for President and vice-president.” 

Mr. Lacson is running for president in tandem with Mr. Sotto. Congressional sessions will resume on Jan. 17 and end on Feb. 4. Filipinos will choose President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s replacement on May 9. Under Mr. Gonzales’s proposal, Mr. Duterte will be banned from running for any post after his term ends this year. 

Senator Franklin M. Drilon said the proposal should be ignored.

The push comes after the ruling party asked the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to reopen the filing of the certificates of candidacy for this year’s elections. It said the printing of ballots should not proceed pending lawsuits involving certain candidates and party-lists. 

Some lawmakers have said this could delay the May elections and unnecessarily extend Mr. Duterte’s term. The election body would soon address the party’s plea, Comelec spokesman James B. Jimenez has said.

PDP-Laban, which is headed by Mr. Duterte, does not have presidential and vice-presidential candidates this year after Senator Ronald M. dela Rosa and his running mate Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go quit the race. 

The party has been split by a dispute between a faction led by Energy Secretary Alfonso G. Cusi and another headed by Senator and boxing champion Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao, Sr., who is running for president.

The boxer will run under the Progressive Movement for the Devolution of Initiatives, along with party-list lawmaker Jose L. Atienza, Jr.

Meanwhile, Mr. Pacquiao promised that health workers would get a minimum wage of P50,000 if he gets elected.

In a statement, he said he would ask Congress to legislate a new salary standardization bill for health workers. He would also order the National Wages and Productivity Commission and Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Boards to revamp the minimum wage for private health professionals and increase their gross monthly pay to at least P50,000.   

This would increase progressively and make their salaries competitive with their overseas counterparts, Mr. Pacquiao said.

“This P50,000 per month minimum wage is still very low if we compare it with the salaries offered by other countries, but it might be enough to convince some of them not to leave their families behind,” he added. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

Several Consular Offices, passport centers to suspend operations due to coronavirus surge among staff

DFA.GOV.PH

PASSPORT processing and other consular services of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) will be affected by the temporary closure of several offices within the period Jan. 10 to 20 due to a rising number of coronavirus cases among personnel.

“During the temporary suspension of operations, no passport or Apostille applications will be processed or released. Operations shall resume on 21 January 2022,” DFA said in a statement on Monday.

The affected Consular Offices are those in Antipolo, Angeles, Baguio, Dasmariñas, Iloilo, La Union, Lucena, Malolos, San Pablo, and the National Capital Region East, North, Central, Northeast, South, and West.

The Office of Consular Affairs in Aseana Business Park will also be closed.

Off-site passport processing centers that will also temporarily halt operations are those in Newport Mall, Robinsons Las Piñas, Robinsons San Pedro Laguna, SM Manila, and Robinsons Novaliches.

A limited manpower will still attend to emails and calls at these offices, DFA said.

Affected applicants will be informed of their new appointment schedule via email.

For validly urgent and emergency cases, the department assured that it will continue to provide assistance within its limited capacity during the temporary closure. 

“So far, DFA has a positivity rate of 22% with many more reporting symptoms. If we add close contacts, that is a large number of people who are advised to isolate,” Assistant Secretary Eduardo Martin R. Meñez said in a WhatsApp message to reporters. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan

Infrastructure damage due to typhoon Odette reaches P17.7B

THE PHILIPPINE Army’s 8th Infantry Division has mobilized more than 30 carpentry teams to help residents in different parts of the Visayas rebuild their houses damaged by typhoon Odette (international name: Rai), which swept through southern and central parts of the country in mid-December. — PHILIPPINE ARMY 8TH ID

DAMAGE to public infrastructure due to typhoon Odette, internationally known as Rai, has reached over P17.71 billion, based on the national disaster management agency’s compiled reports as of Jan. 10. 

Schools and other government buildings and facilities account for more than half of the 667 affected structures recorded since the typhoon struck on Dec. 16. The others are roads, bridges, flood control structures, health facilities, and utility service facilities.

Caraga Region, located in the northeastern part of the southern islands of Mindanao, incurred the biggest damage at more than P12.82 billion.

Caraga covers the island provinces of Dinagat and Siargao as well as Surigao City, three of the hardest hit areas by the strongest typhoon to enter the country last year.

The regions of Mimaropa — composed of Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan — had P2.36 billion in infrastructure damage.

Central Visayas, which includes the provinces of Cebu and Bohol, reported P2.15 billion in damage. 

The reported damage values so far in other regions were: Northern Mindanao, P178.8 million; Eastern Visayas, P173.4 million; and Soccsksargen — South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, and General Santos City — at P20 million.

Affected houses, meanwhile, was more than 1.36 million, with 368,441 totally destroyed and 991,762 partially damaged, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council’s latest situational report. 

Repair and rebuilding works are ongoing, but 341,454 people are still displaced and mostly staying in more than 1,200 evacuation centers. 

The number of deaths has been unchanged in the last two weeks at 407. There are still 66 missing while 1,261 were injured. — MSJ 

Senator pushes for regional agri hubs for farmers, investors 

DAR.GOV.PH

AN INFORMATION hub where farmers can get updates on agriculture-related issues and developments as well as link with private investors should be set up in each region, a senator said in an online forum on Monday. 

“We need one strategic platform, one place that will discuss things like land reform, rice tariffication, agricultural modernization, and fisheries modernization so that our farmers and private sector can understand them,” Senator Richard J. Gordon said in Filipino at the AGRI 2022 forum.

Mr. Gordon, who is running for reelection in May, said the center could also have space for local harvests and serve as an agricultural extension facility where farmers can access advisory services.

“The government should pave the way for the private sector to come into agriculture because the people are looking forward to the farmers’ liberation from poverty,” he said.

He said the farm sector would benefit from direct investments and partnerships with manufacturers, research and development experts, and shipping firms, among others. 

Locating the hubs per region would also facilitate a more active participation from the local governments, he added. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan 

House resolution seeks to make F. Sionil Jose’s works more accessible to poor students 

F. SIONIL JOSE FB

A RESOLUTION was filed in the House of Representatives Friday seeking to honor the late national artist Francisco Sionil Jose and make his works more accessible to poor students and, by extension, their families. 

Speaker Lord Allan Jay Q. Velasco and members of the Arts and Culture and Creative Industries Bloc of the 18th Congress authored House Resolution 2341 following the death of Mr. Jose, who is known for his novels and short stories about colonialism and social injustice.

Pangasinan Rep. Christopher V.P. De Venecia, chair of the Committee on Creative Industry, said it is challenging to make the works of Mr. Jose more accessible and influential in the lives of young Filipinos because there are many new and modern media competing for their attention. 

“We need effective modules and well-trained teachers who can make F. Sionil Jose’s books matter in the lives of both the young and their parents,” he said.

He also noted that books are “considered luxuries in millions of Filipino households whose budgets for books is limited only to the most basic of textbooks.” 

Mr. Jose, who was given the recognition as National Artist for Literature in 2001, died on Jan. 6 at 97. 

His most popular work is a series of novels called The Rosales Saga, which tells the story of five generations of farmers and Spanish-European families in Rosales, Pangasinan — his hometown. His books have been translated in 28 languages. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan

2020 too?

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

Let me start by wishing you all a much better year in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021. Hopefully, this year will be safer, healthier, happier, and more prosperous for everyone. But will it really or will it be 2020 too? Let’s address our risk map.

PANDEMIC RISK
From the looks of it, the Omicron strain is highly infectious. It came just in time for the Christmas holidays with a world feeling liberated from the Delta strain. Omicron’s phenomenal rise took flight in the last two weeks of December. Super-spreader gatherings are causing the surge of infections overseas, such as the USA, Europe, and Xian, a city of 13 million people in China.

Alert Level 3 was just reinstated in the National Capital Region. How the rest of the country goes will depend on Omicron’s behavior. It could mean more restrictive measures that could further impair social interaction and commercial-industrial activity. Detection systems must be firmly in place to spot and quickly arrest mindless persons who break the rules, jump quarantine and cover up their violation of existing safety and security laws.

In 2020, full-year GDP contracted by 9.6%. Despite Delta’s disruptive run, the economy is expected to have rebounded in 2021, ending on a positive growth rate ranging from 4.9% to 5.4%. The pandemic also weakened the country’s fiscal position. Government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 52.7% in 2021 and, possibly, 54.5% in 2022; compared to 34.1% in 2019. But with Omicron’s potential for more disruption, the debt-to-GDP ratio could further deteriorate.

From a family standpoint, restrictions on movement and face-to-face interaction pose psycho-social problems, especially for the young. Parents will have to be more creative in engaging their brood at home and getting them to have enriching online interaction with their friends. While the pandemic provided bonding opportunities for disconnected parents, it pushed our youth, whose parents weren’t able to adjust to the new normal, to retreat into their caves. That’s a big watch out for this year.

POLITICAL RISK
Will this year’s electoral campaign period be virus-free and still be dominated by mass gatherings? Or will the pandemic continue on and force the nature of campaigning to shift online? Mass gatherings are potential super-spreader events, like what happened in the US in 2020. This is a crucial challenge for the candidates and their teams — winning hearts and minds without “pressing-the-flesh” in critical areas to sidestep the danger to their health and the public’s.

Another issue is overcoming unresolved inter-generational problems requiring a transformative team in place with the right values, aptitude, and skills to address those, while working in parallel for their vision of a more secure and developed Philippines. Do we have a field of candidates with boundless potential for good governance and skillful statecraft to choose from? Or do we have more of the same political syndicates, traditional politicians, and self-serving agendas?

Moreover, grizzled observers say that while winning over the voter is one thing, winning the count is another matter altogether. While the energies and money spent for mind-setting surveys, brand management, campaign staff and poll watchers are vital to win the voter, a separate budget is needed to ensure that the votes are counted. Will our political culture change for the better just in time in the next five months? And what about foreign intervention in the shadows to influence the outcome? Will it truly be in our national interest?

GEOPOLITICAL RISK
These past few years, we’ve seen geopolitical alignments firming up in Europe, the Middle East, and in the Indo-Pacific. In Europe, it’s Russia versus a US-led NATO. In the Middle East, it’s Iran-led Islamist countries and radical non-state actors versus a USA-Israel backed coalition of Muslim states. In the Indo-Pacific, it’s China and North Korea versus a “freedom of the seas” coalition involving the QUAD nations and ASEAN nations seeking a defense shield. Will we see this year a calibrated escalation of warrior diplomacy and saber rattling?

The Philippines occupies coveted strategic real estate that extends southward and westwards to Indian and ASEAN resource rich countries; farther west to Persian Gulf oil-rich countries; and eastward to Asia-Pacific markets. Our country is a transshipment point, logistics hub, trading center, and regional security sentinel in the South China Sea. It’s an archipelagic state with the potential of becoming a regional maritime power if only it had the right people in government and society.

The administration deserves credit for recognizing the security-development nexus. Security and development are synergistic; they’re two sides of the same coin. Building the economy requires a parallel investment in security. The AFP’s modernization buildup was backed by the national leadership, such that the Army, Navy, and Air Force were given the resources to address modern threats to national security. The Philippine National Police and Philippine Coast Guard are beneficiaries of the buildup as well.

The brand-new assets we have on the ground, in the air, and out at sea, and those in line for procurement already funded, or ready for delivery, are good indicators of the serious, steady buildup to have the capability of addressing the aftermath of natural disasters, and war fighting if it comes to that. More needs to be done, however, in terms of amending the Procurement Law, finding new sources of funding for acquisition and sustainment, and reviving the Self-Reliance Defense Program. We must be ready to defend ourselves to win the peace we want.

ECONOMIC RISK
If 2022 doesn’t live up to positive expectations, it goes without saying that economic risk could easily slip into crisis mode.

More pandemic-led supply chain disruptions will exacerbate productivity and trading contractions that, in turn, will delay recovery. Failure of whole-of-nation collaboration to reflate the economy and find new trading partners pose additional anxieties for 2022. If the US-China rivalry heats up more, just remember that China, Japan, and the USA are our country’s top three trading partners. What’s Plan B in case RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) gets stalled or RP-China relations deteriorate?

That’s enough mental indigestion for now but, seriously, it’s food for serious thought and appropriate action.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.

 

Rafael “Raffy” M. Alunan III is member of the MAP, chair of Philippine Council for Foreign Relations, vice-chair of Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines, Inc., and sits on the boards of other companies as independent director.

map@map.org.ph

rmalunan@gmail.com

Philippines’ monthly birth and death data show that indefinite lockdown and mass vaccination are wrong

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the updated monthly vital statistics last week, on Jan. 6, and many numbers are interesting or shocking.

One, births are declining and this decline is accelerating. From an average of 139,500 births a month in 2019, it went down to 127,400/month in 2020 and 101,400/month in January-September 2021. So, there were nearly 150,000 fewer births in 2020 compared with 2019, and there will be around 300,000 fewer births in 2021 than 2020.

Two, there were fewer marriages in 2020 due to the strict lockdown. On average there were 40,000 marriages/month in 2019, then there was a drastic decline to only 20,065 in 2020, with the biggest decline in April-May 2020 with only 866 and 4,135 marriages, respectively. Economic and health/psychological stress must have also contributed to fewer babies for young married couples.

Three, there was a big rise in the number of deaths in 2021 when mass vaccination started. From an average of 51,694 deaths per month in 2019, this declined slightly to 51,156/month in 2020, then went up to 55,244/month in the first two months of 2021. By March, when mass vaccination started, the number reached 61,484, the first time in Philippine history that deaths have exceeded the 58,000 mark. From there, it has been rising to nearly 94,000 in August and 103,000 deaths in September 2021.

Four, there was excess mortality of 19,500/month from March to July 2021 over same period in 2020. This went up to 37,000 in August and 49,000 in September, when some 33.7 million vax doses were already given in August (+14.35M over July) and 45.6 M doses in September (see Table 1).

This is not COVID-related excess mortality because the total number of COVID deaths were only 5,559 in August 2021 and 4,846 in September.

The incumbent President of Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph), Dr. Homer Lim, made this good observation: “The Philippine statistics on death and birth rates are quite alarming. Year 2021 was gloomy, excess deaths have topped 49,000 in September alone and we haven’t yet included the last quarter. What factors could have caused this sudden alarming surge in deaths? It is certainly not COVID deaths, so could this be due to people afraid of COVID that they have neglected their other illnesses, or could this be a reflection of vaccine related deaths?”

And the former CDC Ph President Dr. Benigno “Iggy” Agbayani, Jr. offered a good course of action: “These statistics on deaths and births have a huge implication on the longest, most expensive and tyrannical health protocols our country has ever tried. Unbridled lockdowns and experimental vaccinations are the most likely suspects in this sudden high deaths and low birth rates. An investigation by independent and credible experts on this life and death anomaly should be launched as soon as possible.”

Meanwhile, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) released last week the General Appropriations Act (GAA) 2022 as signed by the President in December. I list below the big budget items and some new items there.

One, in the Allocation to local government units (ALGUs), the previous Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) has been renamed National Tax Allotment (NTA) in GAA 2022. The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) block grant is also added.

Two, in the Pension and Gratuity Fund (PGF) in 2022, I included the Miscellaneous Personnel Benefits Fund (MPBF).

In Table 2, note the huge increase in approved vs. proposed budget 2022 for the Departments of Public Works and Highways, Social Welfare and Development, Health, and state universities and colleges. And a huge decline in approved vs. proposed budget for the Department of Education, Pension and Gratuity Fund, Government-owned and -controlled corporations (GOCCs), and Department of Transportation.

Philippine government spending on health is actually huge and more than double the Department of Health’s (DoH) budget. See here in GAA 2022:

1.) DoH budget, P183.89 billion (including DoH hospitals, COVID vaccine booster shots P2.79 billion)

2.) DoH attached corporations, P85.86 billion (including PhilHealth P79.99 billion)

3.) Unprogrammed Appropriations (UA), P120.25 billion, of which:

– Procurement of COVID vaccine booster shots, P45.37 billion,

– Compensation and other benefits for COVID workers in health facilities, P42 billion,

– Operations of DoH Metro Manila and regional hospitals, P12.5 billion,

– COVID laboratory network commodities, P9.80 billion

– Health Facilities Enhancement Program, P4.04 billion

4.) Hospitals by other agencies, at least P10 billion:

– The University of the Philippines’ Philippine General Hospital (PGH), P6.30 billion,

– The Department of National Defense’s Veterans Memorial Medical Center, P2.35 billion,

– Other SUCs hospitals (West Visayas State University Medical Center…)

So P183.89 billion + P85.86 billion + P120.25 billion + P10 billion (at least) = P400 billion. Not included here are health spending by: a.) government gambling corporations (Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp., Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office), b.) by other national agencies as they have their own medical and dental centers, and, c.) by LGUs as many of them have their own provincial hospitals, city hospitals, on top of their LGU health centers.

Now, the number of COVID cases are at an all-time high (28,700 on Jan. 9), the bulk of which are in Metro Manila, and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) Chairman Benjamin Abalos has declared that the vaccination rate in the National Capital Region as of Jan. 4 was already 106% of target population — this is additional proof that vaccines have little function to control infections and protect the public. People have to rely on natural immunity and stronger immune systems to protect them from severe symptoms.

The implicit forced vaccination orders issued by the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases under its Resolution 148, by the MMDA issued last week, and by many LGUs should stop. Not only for being unconstitutional but also for their questionable health impact.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com