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TDF yields slip on oil’s drop, global bond issue

BW FILE PHOTO
THE CENTRAL BANK’S term deposits fetched lower yields on Wednesday. — BW FILE PHOTO

YIELDS on the central bank’s term deposits inched down on Wednesday as fuel prices declined and as investors continued to price in the government’s bond issuance last month.

The term deposit facility (TDF) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) fetched bids amounting to P480.045 billion on Wednesday, well above the P410-billion offering but declining from the P538.809 billion seen a week ago.

Broken down, tenders for the seven-day papers reached P189.303 billion, higher than the P170 billion auctioned off by the central bank but failing to beat the P211.867 billion in bids seen the previous week.

Banks asked for yields ranging from 1.85% to 1.99%, wider than the 1.85% to 1.96% band seen a week ago. This caused the average rate of the one-week deposits to decrease by 1.48 basis points (bps) to 1.9177% from 1.9325% previously.

Meanwhile, bids for the 14-day term deposits amounted to P290.742 billion, beyond the P240-billion offering but down from the P326.942 billion in tenders seen on March 31.

Accepted rates for the tenor were from 1.825% to 1.975%, lower than the 1.89% to 2% margin seen a week ago. With this, the average rate for the two-week deposits fell by 3.16 bps to 1.949% from 1.9806% logged in the prior auction.

The BSP bank has not auctioned 28-day term deposits for more than a year to give way to its weekly offerings of securities with the same tenor.

The term deposits and the 28-day bills are used by the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the financial system and to better guide market rates.

Term deposit yields went down as it tracked the downtrend in global oil prices which could partly ease inflation worries, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Both Brent and US crude benchmarks fell by 13% on Friday from their levels a year earlier to log their biggest drop in two years as the US relayed its plans to release oil reserves to ease supply concerns amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Reuters reported.

However, oil futures were mixed during the early Wednesday session amid concerns for falling demand after Shanghai extended its lockdown and as new sanctions on Russia remains on the table.

Brent crude futures were up 11 cents or 0.1%, at $106.75 a barrel as of 0339 GMT. Meanwhile, the US West Texas Intermedia futures declined by 11 cents or 0.1% to $101.85 a barrel.

Philippine headline inflation in March accelerated to a six-month high of 4%, reflecting the impact of the surge in oil prices following Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in late February.

The BSP last month raised its inflation forecast for the year to 4.3%, already above the 2-4% target, amid the rise in oil and commodity prices.

Aside from the drop in global oil prices, Mr. Ricafort said the market continued to price in the government’s latest global bond issuance in their TDF bids.

In March, the government raised $2.25 billion from its first triple tranche dollar-denominated bond offering. — Luz Wendy T. Noble with Reuters

LRMC to suspend LRT-1 operations from April 14 to 17

BW FILE PHOTO

LIGHT RAIL Manila Corp. (LRMC), the private operator of Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1), announced on Wednesday that it will temporarily suspend operations from April 14 to 17 to give way to annual maintenance activities.

“We are doing these annual maintenance activities to allow us to improve capacity and performance across the line, enabling us to serve our LRT-1 passengers with better, more reliable transport system,” LRMC Chief Operating Officer Enrico R. Benipayo said in an e-mailed statement.

“With this, we urge the riding public to plan their trips accordingly and request for their usual understanding,” he added.

The company said LRT-1 will follow normal operating hours from April 11 to 13, having first trips to leave Baclaran and Balintawak by 4:30 in the morning.

The last trips will be at 9:15 p.m. (LRT-1 Baclaran) and 9:30 p.m. (LRT-1 Balintawak).

The maintenance activities will include rail replacement, replacement of wooden sleepers, and testing of all trains prior to the resumption of revenue operations, LRMC said.

Normal operations will resume on April 18, it added.

LRMC is the joint venture of Ayala Corp., Metro Pacific Light Rail Corp. and Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings (Philippines) Pte. Ltd.

Metro Pacific Investments Corp. is one of three Philippine subsidiaries of Hong Kong’s First Pacific Co. Ltd., the others being PLDT, Inc. and Philex Mining Corp. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., maintains interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Arjay L. Balinbin

Green Archers battle Fighting Maroons for solo second

UP MAROONS’ CJ CANSINO — THE UAAP

By John Bryan Ulanday

UNIVERSITY of the Philippines (UP) and La Salle, the two teams installed as the closest challengers to unbeaten Ateneo’s reign, lock horns in a pivotal mano-a-mano for a solo second spot to maintain a hairbreadth distance from the leaderboard of the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 84 at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay City.

Both sporting 4-1 cards, the Fighting Maroons and the Green Archers figure in a fiery opening salvo at 10 a.m. with the winner claiming a reward to stay on the coattails of three-time defending champion Blue Eagles (5-0) approaching the tailend of the first round.

National University (NU) and Santo Tomas, which both fell short in upset bids against Ateneo and La Salle, respectively, follow suit at 1 p.m. before Ateneo shoots for 32nd straight win against winless University of the East at 4 p.m. Adamson and FEU cap off the night at 7 p.m.

UP and La Salle bolstered their squads with a slew of prized recruits in the offseason that was stretched by the pandemic for two years — all for a mission of toppling the Ateneo dynasty.

Both of them though have missed in their first attempts to clip Ateneo so far with UP falling short at 90-81 in the opener and La Salle running out of steam at 74-57 last weekend.

Now, they collide for the next biggest prize in the meantime of sneaking around the Blue Eagles’ nest for a chance to return the favor and snatch the top seed in the second round.

“We cannot go against La Salle with the same defensive intensity we had against Adamson. We need to really work on it to be ready for a team like La Salle,” said UP coach Goldwin Monteverde after his team barely beat struggling Adamson, 73-71, for their fourth straight win.

For the Green Archers following a 75-66 win against Santo Tomas, coach Derrick Pumaren is banking on a continuous balanced attack to stand a chance against UP in a critical duel that will also feature Gilas Pilipinas bigs Carl Tamayo and Justine Baltazar.

Ateneo, on a 31-game win streak, for its part tries to shrug off a serious scare in a 74-64 decision against NU as it seeks to move a step away from a first-round sweep against the winless but hungry UE.

“I think we have a good basketball team. I don’t think we’re a great basketball team so there’s a lot of work for us to do,” said coach Tab Baldwin, who tipped his hat to NU mentor Jeff Napa after a close match that was decided only at the last minute.

Celebrating Easter in the Metro

THE PEN HOLDS EASTER EGG HUNT AGAIN

AFTER sheltering at home these past two years, The Peninsula Manila is inviting guests back to celebrate Easter Sunday on April 17 with a variety of activities and experiences for the whole family that include splashing in the pool or enjoying classic holiday traditions such as Easter Egg Hunts and special meals together as a family. There is the Easter Egg Hunt at The Conservatory where children enjoy activities while filling their Easter baskets with eggs at The Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt. This year, they can choose one of two sessions for the hunt, with a morning session taking place from 10 a.m. to noon, and another in the afternoon from 2 to 4 p.m. The Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt activities include: Felt Eggs decorating; Craft Lollipop decorating; Papier-mâché Bunny, Bear, and Chick painting; the Candy Jenga Corner; the Ice Cream Stacking Corner; a Playground; and the Easter Egg Hunt. Only guests availing the Easter room package or Escolta restaurant’s Easter Sunday Brunch Buffet will enjoy complimentary access to the Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt. Only one accompanying adult per one child 10 years old and below. Throughout the Easter holiday weekend, from April 14 to 16, young guests can try Easter painting kits, playtime in bubble baths and in the hotel’s outdoor swimming pool, breakfast buffets in Escolta, and a fun Easter experience in the Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt on April 17, Easter Sunday, when their parents book the It’s Hip to Hop to The Peninsula this Easter room package. Rates start at P10,000 for a Deluxe Room (exclusive of taxes) and include a breakfast buffet in Escolta for two adults and two children, one Easter painting welcome amenity kit, and one passport to the Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt. Stay dates are April 14, 15, and 16. There is also an Easter Sunday Brunch Buffet in Escolta on April 17, noon to 3 p.m. (P4,300 for adults, and P1,700 for children under 12). The buffet features a spread that includes soups and mixed salads, fresh seafood, a variety of cheeses, pasta creations, a carving station, breakfast specialties, and a dessert buffet. Children under six years old get one passport to the Peninsula Candyland Adventure and Egg Hunt (only one complimentary passport per one adult and one child 10 years old and below availing of Escolta restaurant’s Easter Sunday Brunch). Meanwhile, seafood lovers can gather in Escolta and choose from a varied menu featuring the ocean’s bounty on April 15 and 16, 6:30-10 p.m. (P3,500 for adults; P1,400 for children under 12). This Easter weekend, the hotel will offer afternoon tea at The Upper Lobby. Tuck into macarons and chocolate cake and French pastries, in addition to the usual suspects of smoked Scottish salmon sandwiches and hot scones. There will also be a live station featuring fresh crepes and Filipino merienda specialties such as bibingka and puto bumbong. Afternoon tea will be offered on April 14, 15, 16, and 17, 2:30-5:30 p.m. (P3,000 with one flute of Champagne, P2,400 without). Finally, visit The Peninsula Boutique at the basement arcade where Easter-themed treats will be available from April 5 to 17, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. For inquiries or reservations on The Peninsula Manila’s Easter room packages and culinary experience, call 8887-2888 (ext. 6630 for Rooms Reservations or 6694 for Restaurant Reservations), or e-mail reservationpmn@peninsula.com or diningpmn@peninsula.com.

EDSA SHANGRI-LA CELEBRATES EASTER

JOY, music, and laughter are part of the Easter celebration at Edsa Shangri-La’s La Casita Madrigal. With an interactive mini-musical by Clowning Around plus activities for the family the celebration will be on April 17, 2-5 p.m., at the Isala Grand Ballroom. Registration starts at 1 p.m. with rate set at P2,500 net per person. The price is inclusive of access to all entertainment and activities, snacks, and drinks. For tickets, visit bit.ly/ESLLaCasita or e-mail events.esl@shangri-la.com. In addition, HEAT will offer an “egg-stra” special Easter Lunch buffet that feature international and Asian cuisine. Specialties include its signature 36-hour roasted Angus beef leg, Japanese and Chinese favorites, Indian fare, Mediterranean dishes, and heirloom Filipino recipes. The Easter lunch buffet is P2,950 net, and is available on April 17 from noon to 2:30 p.m. Meanwhile, an Easter Afternoon Tea set is available daily at P1,450 net from 2 to 6 p.m. for the whole month of April. The Bakeshop also offers Easter treats, like its Easter Cake (P1,450 net) and Easter Hamper (P2,800 net) which are available until April 30. Japanese restaurant Senju will have a buffet on April 17 for P2,800 net. For home celebrations, there are the Easter Take-Me-Home sets for P5,500 net (good for five persons). Order a home feast from April 11-17. For takeaway and delivery orders, a 24-hour notice is needed. For inquiries and reservations, call 8633-8888, or e-mail manilaedsa@shangri-la.com. For takeaway and delivery, visit https://bit.ly/eslshangshop.

CELEBRATING EASTER AT RWM

EASTER is being celebrated at Resorts World Manila (RWM) through hotel offers and dining deals. International hotel brands, Marriott Hotel Manila and Sheraton Manila Hotel, offer Easter Room Packages that include an overnight stay in a Deluxe Room with breakfast for two plus additional dining credits. Book the special offer until April 17. At the Holiday Inn Express Manila-Newport City, an overnight stay in a Superior Room with breakfast for two comes with a free Easter Carrot Cake for rates starting at P5,246 net until April 13. Kids can enjoy Marriott Cafe’s Easter Holiday Buffet with Egg Hunt and Dessert Table for P3,188 net on April 16-17. Hilton Manila’s Madison Lounge & Bar’s offers Easter egg kits, carrot cake, and hot cross buns in a special Easter bundle that also includes lamb chops and an 11-Spiced Spring Chicken. Order a set for the family from April 14-17. Feast with the family at Casa Buenas with the Seafood Fiesta for P1,999 net that features octopus and coconut kilawin, gambas al ajilo, wood oven roasted salmon with adlai and mixed vegetables, and garlic baked oyster. The Seafood Fiesta menu is available every Friday until April 30 at Casa Buenas, GF Newport Grand Wing. At the Garden Wing Cafe, a more conventional seafood preparation is the star. The Seafood Binalot is a combination of garlic shrimp, vinegar mussels, and grilled salmon inasal on top of aligue rice wrapped with a banana leaf that is served with atchara and salted egg ensalada. The Seafood Binalot is available for P688 net, every Friday until April 30. The Garden Wing Cafe is open daily from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. at the GF Newport Garden Wing. Newport Grand Wing’s Silk Road and Newport Garden Wing’s Victoria Harbour Cafe (VHC) are offering abalone dishes. VHC offers classic preparations like Abalone Fried Rice for P880 net and Double Boiled Abalone and Chicken Soup for P608 net. Silk Road offers different Asian preparations, like Thai Abalone Salad for P720 net, Biryani Chicken with Abalone for P840, and the Abalone in Curry Sauce with Rice and Egg for P740 net. All these abalone dishes are available daily until April 30. RWM will host an Easter Sunday Mass with Fr. Edsel Nagrampa and the Kammerchor Chorale on April 17, 5:30 p.m., at the 2F Newport Mall. For more information on RWM’s Easter offers, visit www.rwmanila.com and follow @rwmanila on Facebook and Twitter, and @resortsworldmanila Instagram.

Microsoft Philippines offers hub platform for startup founders

TECHNOLOGY company Microsoft announced on Wednesday that Filipino startup founders can take advantage of its Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub Platform, which is aimed at supporting them at every stage of their journey.

“With the launch of Founders Hub, we’re happy to see our services become democratized even further, allowing startups of all sizes to get started in their digital journey,” Microsoft Philippines Chief Marketing and Operating Officer Abid Zaidi said in an e-mailed statement.

According to the company, the Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub Platform “will support founders in Asia at every stage of their startup journey with access to more than $300,000 in benefits including technology and tools from Microsoft and partners.”

They will gain mentorship and skilling opportunities with industry experts and training platform Microsoft Learn.

The Startups Founders Hub Platform, which is designed for early-stage startups, is seen to help entrepreneurs  innovate and grow “by connecting them with mentors who will provide them with industry, business, and technical support to guide them through their next business milestones.”

Founders will be given access to Microsoft Learn and various startup and unicorn programs. The objective is to help them build connections with customers and accelerate their growth, according to the company.

“Asian startups have already played a role in transforming the region’s economy,” said Jesus Martin, strategy chief at Microsoft Asia.

“Asian-born businesses have changed e-commerce, fintech, social media and gaming. They have given us SuperApps, which are changing the way we live.”

“We will continue to work with our partners and regional ecosystem to get technology and resources in the hands of startup founders in Asia to empower them to innovate and ultimately succeed,” he added. — Arjay L. Balinbin

UNO Digital Bank to issue debit cards powered by Mastercard this quarter

UNO Digital Bank will issue virtual and physical debit cards powered by Mastercard, Inc. within this quarter.

“Filipinos are embracing digital payments, and our partnership with Mastercard honors our promise to deliver simple solutions to our customers that offer a better banking experience,” UNO Digital Bank Chief Executive Officer Manish Bhai was quoted as saying in a statement on Wednesday.

He said they are building a payments ecosystem for their prospective clients and its Mastercard partnership is seen to help the lender achieve this.

“Mastercard is honored to work with innovative partners like UNO Digital Bank who are paving the way to financial inclusion in the Philippines. Mastercard debit cards are designed to meet evolving consumer needs, and make everyday payments safe, simple, smart and accessible,” said Simon Calasanz, Mastercard’s country manager for the Philippines.

Physical debit cards that will be issued through the partnership will be equipped with security measures that will mitigate the possibility of fraud incidents and will help users to prevent misuse of the cards, UNO Digital Bank said.

Mr. Bhai earlier said they will focus on consumer lending and personalizing product offerings to ensure banking will be relevant to the underbanked and underserved.

He also believes the national ID initiative will help boost financial inclusion in the country, as the lack of documentary requirements have long prevented Filipinos from opening accounts with financial institutions.

UNO Digital Bank, a unit of the Singapore-headquartered financial technology player DigibankASIA Pte. Ltd., secured an online banking license from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in June last year. — L.W.T. Noble

Synergy Grid takes greater control over NGCP

SYNERGY Grid & Development Phils., Inc. is set to gain 9.241% direct control over the country’s privately owned power transmission operator, National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), apart from its indirect ownership stake.

Synergy Grid is subscribing to 203,630,000 nonvoting preferred shares of NGCP, which will result in an increase in the latter’s capitalization.

At P60.10 per share, the total subscription amounting to about P12.24 billion, will be paid in cash coming from the proceeds of the follow-on offering. The amount will be used for NGCP’s capital expenditure programs and related expenses.

“This amount will be a huge boost to fund NGCP’s capital expenditure, a huge chunk of which is on new transmission projects for the improvement, upgrading, and expansion of the country’s power grid,” said Synergy Grid Chairman Henry T. Sy, Jr., who is also on NGCP’s board.

Through holding companies, Synergy Grid indirectly controls 60% of the outstanding capital stock of NGCP, which is its sole operating asset. It has an effective equity interest of 40.2% consisting of common shares.

It said the parties agreed on the subscription price based on, among other considerations, the fair value of NGCP’s shares. Synergy Grid is to pay around P3.06 billion in cash on the subscription agreement’s execution date.

The remaining 75% or P9.18 billion will be paid within 10 days from the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission of NGCP’s increase in authorized capital stock.

NGCP holds the sole and exclusive concession and franchise for the operation of the country’s power transmission network, which links power generators and distribution utilities to deliver electricity nationwide.

Synergy Grid said NGCP in the next 13 years is committed to invest around P440 billion across 211 projects to support the growing electricity demand in the Philippines.

“Our investors who chose to partner with us at SGP (Synergy Grid’s stock symbol)  are instrumental in ensuring that NGCP’s projects in the pipeline will come into fruition and play a significant part in the country’s economic development,” Robert G. Coyiuto, Jr., Synergy Grid vice-chairman.

Azkals, Filipinas have to deal with host Vietnam in Hanoi group stage

PHILIPPINE FOOTBALL FEDERATION

THE Philippine U23 Azkals and Filipinas both have to deal with defending champion and host Vietnam when they see action in the group stage of the 31st Southeast Asian Games (SEAG) football competitions in early May.

The U23 Azkals campaign in a virtual “Group of Death” after Wednesday’s draw set them up for early battles with holder Vietnam, silver medalist Indonesia and bronze medalist Myanmar in Group A.

Timor-Leste, whom the Pinoy booters played to a 2-2 draw in the AFF U23 Championship last February, completed the five-team bracket. Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore and Laos made up Group B.

Meanwhile, the FIFA Womens’ World Cup-bound Filipinas begin their quest for a breakthrough SEAG gold in Group A versus Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia. Powerhouse Thailand, the silver medalist last time, headlines the other group against Myanmar, Laos and Singapore.

The Filipinas fell short of a podium finish in 2019 in Manila, losing to Myanmar in the bronze medal game, 2-1, but will go into the tournament on a high from their WWC-clinching fourth place in the AFC Women’s Asian Cup last January.

The Vietnamese, who also booked a trip to the world meet after topping the round-robin playoff for the last Asian berth, previously defeated the Pinay booters in the semis of the 2019 SEAG, 2-0, on their way to their sixth gold medal of the conclave.

Initial objective for the Philippine bets will be to finish in the Top 2 of the group to advance to the semifinals.

SEAG football action kicks off on May 6 for the men’s division and May 9 for the women’s side to be held in five venues across five cities. — Olmin Leyba

Cooking along with Chef Tatung

CHEF Myke “Tatung” Sarthou

Celebrity chef shows how to cook Beef Short Ribs Piyanggang

CELEBRITY chef, restaurateur, and international award-winning book author, chef Myke “Tatung” Sarthou had quite an interesting St. Patrick’s Day (March 17). He was marrying European beef with deep Filipino influences, and we wanted nothing else but to reach through our screen during a Zoom “cook-along” with Bord Bia (Bord Bia – the Irish Government Food Board).

For the occasion, Mr. Sarthou prepared a Beef Short Ribs Piyanggang. Piyanggang is related to Southeast Asia’s various coconut-based rendangs and curries, but with a twist. “It’s only in Southern Philippines, where the Tausugs — the warrior tribe —  makes it with burning (the coconut) into complete charcoal,” he said. At his side was a bowl of charred coconut shells and meat, where he told host Issa Litton that the burnt shells were discarded. “It’s not bitter at all!”

He presented this dish at 2017’s edition of the Madrid Fusion food festival, where it was apparently a hit. He did make an observation about European ingredients: “I think if you’ll speak of European products and produce, it’s really their lifestyle… though it’s a product standard if you define it, to the market, it’s really a way of life.”

The camera zoomed in on his plate of short ribs. “Such a beautiful marble on it. Very meaty. And very red!,” he pointed out. “It means that they [the cows] are very healthy, and more flavorful.”

Jack Hogan, Bord Bia Market Specialist, spoke about the virtues of Irish beef during the cook-along’s introduction. “Ireland has a population of five million people, yet we have over seven million cows. We are the largest net exporter of beef in the Northern Hemisphere, with a strong global reputation,” he said. Ireland’s environment has a lot to do with it: over 80% of the land is devoted to agriculture. “We have no large factories, which means we have a clean environment free from pollution,” said Mr. Hogan.

The piyanggang, which would normally braise for three hours, was done in much less time (thanks to TV magic and preparing beforehand). Mr. Sarthou, adding burnt peppercorns to finish the dish, said, “I think the nice thing about European beef is that it is grass-fed. The meat is very flavorful, and it’s very close to the flavor of our local beef. But the local beef tends to be very lean.

“This one really adds flavor.” —  JL Garcia


Beef Short Ribs Piyanggang

(Blackened Beef in Coconut Curry)

Piyanggang with Irish Flag

Ingredients:

Set A

(Boil)

1 kg beef short ribs, bone-in

1-1.5 liter beef stock

4 tbsp salt

1 tbsp whole pepper

1 garlic

1 onion

Set B

(Blend then Sauté)

1 coconut, burnt

4 cloves garlic

1 onion

4 thumb-sized piece of ginger

2 stalks lemongrass

5 red chilies

2 cups coconut milk

Set C (Garnish)

1 tomato, medium

½ a cucumber, medium

1 onion, medium

1 eggplant, medium

1 green mango, medium

Procedure:

1. Boil Set A ingredients until tender.

2. Burn the coconut with shell until the meat inside is charred black. Let it cool.

3. Blend Set B ingredients with the burnt coconut.

4. In the sauté pan, add oil and pour over the blended ingredients. Sauté with short ribs until cooked and the oil from the coconut has rendered.

5. Garnish with Set C ingredients.

Japanese robot is able to peel bananas cleanly, most of the time

TOKYO — Robots in Japan are found on factory floors carrying out simple tasks or delivering food to restaurant patrons but researchers have now unveiled a robot capable of executing the delicate task of peeling a banana without squashing the fruit inside.

While the dual-armed machine is only successful 57% of the time, banana peeling points to a future where machines undertake more subtle operations than moving metal parts or delivering coffee.

Video from researchers at the University of Tokyo showed the robot pick up and peel a banana with both hands in about three minutes.

Researchers Heecheol Kim, Yoshiyuki Ohmura and Yasuo Kuniyoshi trained the robot using a “deep imitation learning” process where they demonstrated the banana-peeling action hundreds of times to produce sufficient data for the robot to learn the actions and replicate it.

In this case, the banana reached its success rate after more than 13 hours of training.

While still undergoing more testing, Mr. Kuniyoshi believes his robot training method can teach robots to do different simple “human” tasks.

He hopes the better-trained robots can alleviate Japan’s labor shortage problems, for example at bento lunch box or food processing factories that are highly dependent on human labor. — Reuters

Stock, credit markets too calm ahead of US central bank’s tightening, funds say

THE SHUDDER seen in US stocks and bonds Tuesday looks set to spread as investors wake up to the likely impact on markets of a quicker-than-expected rundown of the US Federal Reserve’s $9 trillion in debt holdings.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard sent shockwaves through markets when she said the central bank would start balance sheet reduction “at a rapid pace” as soon as next month. Interviews with investors before Ms. Brainard spoke showed many suspected risk assets had yet to account for such a sharp pullback from historically easy money, with equity and credit markets singled out for being unusually calm as quantitative tightening loomed.

Many investors are still under the notion US policy makers will balk at causing a risk-asset sell-off — the so-called Fed put — according to Ron Temple, head of US equities and co-head of multi-asset at Lazard Asset Management in New York.

“If you’re at the Fed and you want to tighten financial conditions, that means lower equity prices, wider credit spreads and higher interest rates,” Mr. Temple said. “So if anyone believes the Fed wouldn’t dare lower equity prices, they’re sadly mistaken.”

LIQUIDITY PULL
Alongside over-aggressive rate hikes, a faster-than-expected rundown of the Fed’s balance sheet is a second policy move with the potential to destabilize global markets, investors say. Not only does it mean a key buyer of Treasuries has disappeared but shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet pulls liquidity from the financial system which can result in higher borrowing costs and spikes in volatility across asset classes.

“Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery,” Ms. Brainard said, adding that the “caps” set to govern the pace of asset roll-off could be “significantly larger” and phased in much faster than last time around.

When the Fed last shrank balance sheet back in 2017, it began with monthly caps of $6-billion Treasuries and $4-billion mortgage-backed securities, rising over the course of a year to $30 billion and $20 billion. But despite the caps, the rolloff still helped fuel a disruptive spike in repo rates, a keystone of short-term funding markets.

The risk is that the Fed might be underestimating how much tightening will result from balance sheet reduction, said Lazard’s Temple. He sees trouble particularly for tech stocks with valuations that are heavily dependent on cash flow projections far into the future and suggested the recent weakness in bank stocks — which are supposed to benefit from rising rates — reflected fears of credit losses in a growth downturn.

“The history of the Fed is that they tend to tighten till something breaks,” said Christopher Alwine, head of credit at Vanguard Fixed Income Group.

SCALE OF IMPACT
The impact of the Fed’s portfolio unwind is hard to quantify. Officials have suggested that the runoff would be roughly equivalent to as little as one rate hike, but others are skeptical. Deutsche Bank said its forecasts of a $1.9-trillion balance sheet run off to the end of 2023 — around the upper end of the spectrum — equated to as many as four quarter-point rate hikes.

Futures markets are already pricing in the equivalent of almost ten 25-basis- point rate hikes from the Fed up until the beginning of February next year.

“It’s hard for me to say that the market has completely priced in QT,” Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said at a briefing Wednesday. “However, I do feel confident in saying that part of the QT has already been reflected in bond prices.”

Hui expects 10-year Treasury yields to gradually creep up toward 3% by the end of the year, with a “manageable” impact on technology and health care stocks — as long as the rise is “orderly.”

VALUATION WORRY
But with equity indexes having largely returned to levels prior to the start of the conflict in February, there’s a higher potential for prices to drop sharply in an environment of reduced liquidity, according to Pilar Gomez-Bravo, an investment officer and director of fixed income at MLS Investment Management in London.

“It would be okay if the starting level of valuations were palatable,” she said. “It’s quite scary in some cases. What that means to me as an investor is that you have a higher risk of highly correlated moves when things correct and therefore gap moves in prices.”

Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting due Wednesday will be closely scrutinized as they are expected to provide more insight into their balance sheet plans.

Brainard’s comments suggests the Fed are going to use quantitative tightening as a tool — a negative for financial assets — said Kevin Muir, a former institutional equity derivative trader who now writes the MacroTourist newsletter. That will cause financial conditions to tighten more quickly, he said.

“An increase in the pace of tightening of QT should mean lower stocks, wider credit spreads and a slight reduction in the need for front-end hikes,” he wrote. “Using the balance sheet as a tightening tool represents a large change in the Fed’s attitude, and IS NOT priced into the market.” — Bloomberg

ADB keeps 2022 Philippine GDP growth forecast at 6%, expects 6.3% in 2023

THE Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its Philippine growth forecast for 2022, as domestic investment and consumption continue to improve amid looser lockdown restrictions, but it warned of risks from the Russia-Ukraine war. Read the full story.

ADB keeps 2022 Philippine GDP growth forecast at 6%, expects 6.3% in 2023