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PSEi returns to 6,000 level before inflation data

The lobby of the Philippine Stock Exchange in Taguig City, Sept. 30, 2020. — REUTERS

PHILIPPINE SHARES recovered on Monday, buoyed by bargain hunting and expectations that headline inflation slowed last month.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 0.65% or 39.22 points to 6,037.19, while the broader all shares index went up by 0.89% or 32 points to 3,620.12.

“The local market bounced back after two straight days of losses as investors hunted for bargains, backed by optimistic expectations towards the Philippines’ February inflation,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

“Satisfactory fourth quarter and full-year 2024 corporate results also helped in pushing the market higher this Monday. Gains were trimmed in the final minutes, however, as investors maintained a cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties abroad,” he added.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release February inflation data on Wednesday, March 5.

Headline inflation likely slowed in February as prices of rice and other key commodities declined, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 2.6% for the February consumer price index, well within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2.2%-3% forecast for the month.

If realized, February inflation would be slower than the 2.9% in January and the 3.4% clip in the same month in 2023. This would also be the slowest pace in four months or since the 2.3% recorded in October.

“Philippine shares made modest gains following the sentiment of regional markets and with the quarterly MSCI rebalancing concluding last week,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan added in a Viber message.

Majority of sectoral indices closed higher on Monday. Holding firms increased by 2.89% or 143.82 points to 5,105.22; mining and oil went up by 1.14% or 88.75 points to 7,837.28; property rose by 0.92% or 19.95 points to 2,170.47; and financials climbed by 0.29% or 6.79 points to 2,281.46.

Meanwhile, services dropped by 1.38% or 27.04 points to 1,928.50 and industrials went down by 0.74% or 64.18 points to 8,589.18.

“Bloomberry Resorts Corp. was the top index gainer, jumping 5.64% to P3.37. Monde Nissin Corp. was the main index laggard, plunging 7.15% to P7.01,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover went down to P10.45 billion on Monday with 1.62 billion issues traded from the P20.63 billion with 1.11 billion shares exchanged on Friday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 120 versus 75, while 55 names were unchanged.

Net foreign buying stood at P293.79 million on Monday versus the P3.43 billion in net foreign outflows recorded on Friday. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Agri PPI decline accelerates in Q4

BW FILE PHOTO

THE DECLINE in prices for farm products paid by producers accelerated in the fourth quarter to -7.0%, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in a report.

The fourth-quarter reading compares with the third-quarter year-on-year decline of -5.7%.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the PPI for agriculture fell 4.3% in the fourth quarter, the PSA said.

PPI growth for crops was -9.7% in the fourth quarter, decelerating from the -8.0% year-on-year reading a quarter earlier.

“Quarter-on-quarter, the PPI of crops recorded a 6.1% decrease in the fourth quarter of 2024 from a 3.1% increase in the third quarter of 2024,” the PSA said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Peso rises with inflation data in focus

ANGIE REYES-PEXELS

THE PESO appreciated against the dollar on Monday on expectations that Philippine headline inflation slowed in February.

The local unit closed at P57.90 per dollar on Monday, strengthening by 9.5 centavos from its P57.995 finish on Friday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened slightly stronger at P57.98 against the dollar, which was also its worst showing. Its intraday best was at P57.888 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged went down to $1.06 billion from $1.196 billion on Friday.

The peso strengthened as inflation likely eased last month, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 2.6% for the February consumer price index (CPI), within the central bank’s 2.3% to 3% estimate for the month.

If realized, this would be slower than the 2.9% recorded in January and the 3.4% seen in the same month a year ago.

This would also be the lowest print in four months or since the 2.3% recorded in October.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release February CPI data on March 5 (Wednesday).

“The dollar-peso was rangebound amid increased geopolitical risks with the recent meeting between US President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky,” a trader said in a phone interview.

For Tuesday, the trader expects the peso to move between P57.80 and P58.20 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort sees it ranging from P57.80 and P58.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday he believed he could salvage his relationship with US President Donald J. Trump after their explosive meeting in the Oval Office, but that talks needed to continue behind closed doors, Reuters reported.

Mr. Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine would not concede any territory to Russia as part of a peace deal. He said he was still willing to sign a minerals deal with the US and described a discussion on Sunday with European leaders to send a draft peace plan to the US as a key development.

In an extraordinary meeting that was broadcast live on Friday, Mr. Trump accused Mr. Zelensky of being ungrateful for US aid, of showing disrespect to his country and of risking World War III, casting into doubt Washington’s ongoing support for Ukraine in its three-year-long war with Russia.

Mr. Zelensky spoke to reporters at a London airport after a summit with European leaders in London on Sunday. While he seemed in good spirits and thanked European countries for their support, the Ukrainian leader was careful to balance his dismay with the events of Friday’s Oval Office meeting with a clear desire to keep talking with Washington.

Mr. Zelensky said he did not think the US would stop its assistance to Ukraine, because as “leaders of the civilized world” they would not want to help Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But he said he remained prepared for any outcome. — Aaron Michael C. Sy with Reuters

OceanaGold local business tax payments exceed P397M

OCEANAGOLD.COM

OCEANAGOLD Philippines, Inc. said on Monday that it paid P397.7 million in local business tax to three municipalities in 2025.

In a statement, the mining firm said it remitted local taxes worth P198.9 million to Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya.

Local taxes worth P119.3M and P79.6M were also remitted to the municipalities of Nagtipunan and Cabarroguis, Quirino, respectively, it added. 

The company said the towns sealed memoranda of agreement to allocate at least about P5 million from their tax collection to projects supporting environmental management, protection, and conservation. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

NG budget deficit seen falling below 2025 ceiling

FINANCE SECRETARY RALPH G. RECTO — PHOTO FROM DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE FACEBOOK PAGE

THE National Government’s (NG) budget deficit may fall within the ceiling of 5.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, as lower interest rates and improved revenue collection boost fiscal consolidation, officials said.

On Thursday, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) reported a budget deficit of P1.506 trillion in 2024, narrowing by 0.38%.

The 2024 reading overshot the P1.48-trillion deficit ceiling set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), the BTr said.

Asked if the NG could narrow the budget deficit to below the P1.54 trillion ceiling and the 5.3% of GDP target in 2025, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said: “Yes.”

“That’s part of our target macro fiscal framework to ensure macro stability, a prerequisite for a credit rating upgrade, and a seal of good housekeeping and macro stability for businesses to flourish,” he said via Viber over the weekend.

The World Bank has projected that the Philippine deficit-to-GDP ratio will narrow to 5.3% in 2025.

Budget Undersecretary and Principal Economist Joselito R. Basilio also expects the deficit not to breach ceiling in 2025, citing lower interest rates and improved price conditions. He made the remarks to BusinessWorld via Viber.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier signaled an up to 50 basis-point rate cut this year after unexpectedly holding them steady in February.

Mr. Basilio added that other factors include “fiscal discipline characterized by improved revenue performance following tax administration reforms, gains from past and upcoming new tax measures, and increased spending efficiency.”

The BIR started collecting the 1% withholding tax from online sellers in November and will soon impose value-added tax on digital service platforms.

“It should be noted that the 5.7% deficit-to-GDP ratio is in line with the expectations announced by the DBCC during its December meeting,” he said.

Revenue collection rose 15.56% to P4.42 trillion in 2024, surpassing the P4.27-trillion target due to better-than-expected nontax revenue. The 16.72% revenue-to-GDP ratio was the highest since 1997.

However, tax revenue rose to P3.8 trillion, falling short of the full-year target by 0.51%.

The proposed excise tax on single-use plastics has been approved by the House of Representatives but remains stalled in the Senate. The rationalization of the mining fiscal regime is set to move to bicameral conference committee after the election break.

In an e-mail, Ateneo School of Government Dean and Economics Professor Philip Arnold P. Tuaño said the Philippines needs to at least meet the lower end of the government’s 6-8% growth target and continue its program of tax reforms.

The economy expanded 5.6% in 2024, up from 5.5% a year earlier, but missed the revised 6-6.5% target, the Philippine Statistics Authority said.

“We will have our mid-term elections this year, so although there will be some spending bans during the campaign period, we usually expect higher than usual government expenditures during years with elections,” he said.

The DBCC set the government spending target at P6.18 trillion in 2025.

Officials and analysts cited global uncertainty as the primary risk to the Philippine deficit outlook.

“Risks to fiscal policy include external uncertainty not only due to tensions in Ukraine, Russia and Gaza but also due to trade policy frictions among developed economies such as the US, Canada, China and the European Union,” Mr. Basilio said.

Mr. Tuaño said the government will have to anticipate possible rises in inflationary pressure and the effects of global uncertainty, including changes in export and remittance revenue affecting economic growth.

Asked if the DBCC needs to revise its targets in the upcoming March meeting, Mr. Recto said: “So far we’re on track.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Tuaño proposed that economic managers should consider adjusting their fiscal targets, particularly the deficit-to-GDP ratio, to more “attainable levels” considering the economic conditions.

Debt-to-GDP inched up to 60.7% at the end of 2024 from 60.1% a year earlier, the BTr said in a separate report.

The government is aiming to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60.4% in 2025 and eventually within the international threshold of 60%. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Auto parts makers warn industry could die as car companies post rosy outlooks

SWS.CO.JP

AUTO PARTS makers said their dependence on imports and rising costs are keeping them from reaping the benefits of strong car sales in the Philippines.

In a statement over the weekend, the Philippine Parts Makers Association (PPMA) said: “While the robust growth of the automotive sector signals a thriving industry, parts suppliers continue to struggle.”

PPMA President Ferdinand I. Raquelsantos said:

“We welcome the positive outlook in the automotive industry, but we must ask — what about the parts makers? Many of our members are on the brink of closure due to an uneven playing field. If we don’t act now, we may see the death of Philippine auto parts manufacturing.”

The PPMA pushed for stronger policy in favor of domestic manufacturers, including increased local-content requirements, tax incentives, and access to technology.

“Our industry has the capability and expertise to supply quality parts, but without the right policies, we are forced to rely on imports,” Mr. Raquelsantos said.

“The government and automotive companies must work hand in hand with parts makers to ensure that this industry not only survives but thrives,” he added.

The Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. projects industry sales of 500,000 units this year. If realized, this would represent a 7% increase from the 467,252 units sold in 2024.

Car sales in 2024 grew 8.7%. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Isuzu PHL targets 10% sales growth in 2025

ISUZUPHIL.COM

ISUZU Philippines Corp. said it is expecting 10% growth in sales this year, driven by the commercial truck segment.

“We are projecting at least a 10% increase for Isuzu,” Robert D. Carlos, assistant division head for sales at Isuzu, told reporters last week.

If realized, Isuzu will sell around 19,405 units by the end of the year. In 2024, it sold 17,641 units.

Isuzu’s outlook will exceed the industry average projected at 7% forecast by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI), equivalent to 500,000 units.

Isuzu had a 3.78% market share last year, CAMPI and the Truck Manufacturers Association said.

Isuzu was the top-selling brand for trucks last year across three major truck categories: light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty trucks.

In 2024, Isuzu sold 2,812 light-duty trucks, 1,534 medium-duty trucks, and 245 heavy-duty trucks.

“The top three best sellers are the TRAVIZ, D-MAX, and N-Series,” Mr. Carlos said.

Isuzu recently introduced its new heavy-duty truck, the S and E Series, an upgrade of the brand’s C and E Series.

Between Feb. 28 and March 2, it displayed 19 Isuzu trucks and light commercial vehicles at the SMX Convention Center, its biggest truck show ever.

During the show, Isuzu also introduced its new Isuzu NPR85 Class III public utility vehicle (PUV) body and the new Isuzu TRAVIZ Class 1 PUV.

Mr. Carlos said that the company is hoping to end 2025 with 49 dealerships from 48 currently. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

Misamis Oriental farm-to-market road seeks to improve access for coffee, cacao growers

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said it has started work on a P26-million farm-to-market road in Misamis Oriental to improve market access to growers of coffee, cacao, coconut, and banana.”

The DTI said in a statement on Monday that the 1.06-kilometer road in Barangay Bal-ason, Gingoog City, is funded by its Rural Agro-enterprise Partnership for Inclusive Development (RAPID) Growth Project.

RAPID is in turn backed by a value chain-based development program, known as the International Fund for Agricultural Development.

“This project is a significant step toward improving market access for our farmers, allowing them to transport their produce more efficiently, reduce post-harvest losses, and enhance their income opportunities,” Misamis Oriental DTI Provincial Director Jesusa M. Abear said.

“By strengthening the agricultural value chain, we are fostering rural economic growth and ensuring a more sustainable livelihood for smallholder farmers in Gingoog City,” she added.

Aside from the road project, the DTI said it will continue to support farmer-beneficiaries through capacity building, enterprise development, financing support, and matching grants.

Separately, the DTI said that Coco Island, an enterprise specializing in high-quality coconut-based products, is set to complete its P15-million first processing facility by April.

“This initiative is set to enhance production, promote sustainability, drive regional economic growth, and ultimately boost the coconut industry in Region 12,” the DTI said.

The new facility is expected to streamline Coco Island’s processing operations and ensure high-quality eco-friendly production.

“Furthermore, it will create numerous local jobs and offer greater opportunities for micro, small and medium enterprises, coconut farmers, and entrepreneurs,” the DTI said. — Justine Irish D. Tabile

A taxpayer’s right to correct invoicing errors

Opportunities to correct past mistakes can be invaluable, whether in personal or business matters. In taxation, this right is particularly crucial as errors in documentation can lead to significant financial consequences.

Imagine an employee tasked with purchasing office supplies. After selecting the necessary items and making the payment at the store, the employee receives an invoice. Only upon returning to the office is it realized that the invoice lacked key details, such as the taxpayer identification number (TIN) and a separate VAT breakdown. Without this information, the company would be unable to claim input VAT.

To resolve the issue, the employee must return to the store and request a corrected invoice. While this may be a minor inconvenience for a single transaction, the stakes are much higher in large corporate dealings, where millions of pesos in VAT claims rely on proper invoicing. For businesses managing extensive supplier networks and high-value transactions, ensuring proper invoicing is not a trivial task; it is a critical factor in managing tax obligations and financial compliance.

When businesses face compliance issues with invoices, the stakes are significantly higher. Errors in invoicing requirements can lead to the disallowance of input VAT claims, resulting in financial losses and potential tax assessments. Fortunately, as established in the Court of Tax Appeals (CTA) decisions, taxpayers have the right to request corrections from their suppliers to ensure compliance with invoicing requirements. However, this right comes with the responsibility of ensuring that any alterations are validated by the authorized signatory.

In the 2016 case of Coral Bay Nickel Corp. v. CIR, the CTA En Banc ruled against the taxpayer because, although it properly requested invoice corrections from its suppliers, the necessary insertions and alterations were not countersigned by the supplier’s authorized signatory or the countersignatures were unverified. As a result, the court disallowed the taxpayer’s input VAT claims, emphasizing the need for due diligence in ensuring proper documentation.

On the other hand, in the 2023 case of Eurofragance Philippines, Inc. v. CIR, the CTA upheld the taxpayer’s input VAT claims. The court found that the corrections and additions made by suppliers were properly supported by countersignatures matching the authorized signatories appearing on said documents.

Additionally, where discrepancies in signatures existed in some invoices, the suppliers provided notarized certifications confirming three things, namely: (1) specific sales invoices issued by the supplier to the taxpayer with the invoice amount and VAT amount separately shown; (2) the name of the authorized representative who countersigned the corrections; and (3) an attestation that the VAT arising from the listed transactions was paid, declared, and reflected in the Summary List of Sales attached to the supplier’s VAT return.

These cases highlight the importance of proper validation when correcting invoicing errors. Taxpayers who act in good faith to rectify supplier errors should not bear the burden of tax deficiencies. A fair tax system must recognize that mistakes happen, but when corrected properly and transparently, they should not result in undue penalties or financial losses for businesses.

The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) has taken great strides in promoting taxpayer compliance and enhancing efficiency. By continuously refining its processes and digital initiatives, the BIR ensures that taxpayers have clear guidelines on invoicing requirements, helping businesses avoid common errors and maintain compliance with tax regulations. Through these efforts, the BIR has reduced administrative burdens and improved tax efficiency, making compliance more accessible for businesses and individuals alike.

Ultimately, while taxpayers have the right to have invoicing errors corrected, the best approach is to prevent such mistakes from occurring in the first place. Ensuring that invoices comply with the invoicing requirements of the Tax Code from the outset reduces the need for corrections, minimizes administrative burdens, and avoids potential compliance risks.

 

Carlo Angelo T. Negado is a manager of the Tax Advisory & Compliance Practice Area at the Cebu office of P&A Grant Thornton. Tweet us: @GrantThorntonPH, like us on Facebook: P&A Grant Thornton pagrantthornton@ph.gt.com.

www.grantthornton.com.ph

Philippine gov’t crafting contingency plan amid extreme heat, says palace

STUDENTS were sent home after classes were suspended in Marikina City following reports that Metro Manila could experience a “danger level” heat index of up to 46°C. — PHILIPPINE STAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

THE PRESIDENTIAL palace on Monday said it is working with the Department of Health and state weather bureau to craft an action plan for heatwaves that could reach as high as 49°C in the coming days.

“We are still collating other actions plans regarding this,” Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Clarissa A. Castro told a news briefing in Manila. “It’s just starting now (extreme heat). The government will always be prepared for how it will affect our economy.”

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in an advisory said Metro Manila was projected to experience a “danger level” heat index of up to 46°C for two days until Tuesday.

Many local governments in the capital region suspended classes at all levels on Monday due to the expected heatwave.

Last year, a heatwave hit the capital and other regions in April and May, as well as the bigger Southeast Asian region, leading to almost daily suspensions of in-person classes.

Based on data from the Department of Education (DepEd), Metro Manila has more than 2.8 million students.

In December last year, DepEd released an order that included extreme heat and poor air quality as grounds to suspend work and classes.

The United Nations Children’s Fund said in January that extreme weather disrupted classes of about 242 million children in 85 countries last year, including the Philippines.

Extreme heat or heatwaves, which can last for several days, can strain health, emergency, energy and transportation services and eventually lead to food and power shortages, according to the World Health Organization  website.

In a statement, Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian called on schools to ensure learning outcomes are met through online or alternative learning setups despite disruptions to in-person learning due to extreme heat.

“Since weather events are expected to intensify because of our vulnerability to climate-related hazards, the education sector should adapt and bolster resilience,” the lawmaker, who heads the Senate basic education committee, said.

“We should prioritize investments in climate-resilient schools, including better ventilation and cooling systems,” he added.

High heat indexes were also expected at Clark Airport in Pampanga and Muñoz, Nueva Ecija on Tuesday.

The weather bureau said heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely at the danger level, while heat stroke is probable with continued exposure.

Rising heat index signals the imminent arrival of the warm dry season, according to PAGASA, which is expected to officially declare the start of the dry season within the first or second week of March.

The agency earlier said the weather patterns in the coming weeks would be driven by the weakening of the northeast monsoon or amihan and the increasing influence of easterlies or warm and humid winds from the Pacific Ocean.

Global average temperatures briefly surpassed the critical 1.5°C warming threshold last year, according to the United Nations.

Also on Monday, green group Oceana flagged warmer seas that lead to widespread coral bleaching and threaten marine habitat and fisheries.

A Nature Climate Change study released on Monday said human-caused climate change and El Niño conditions combined to create record-breaking marine heatwaves, which contributed to the strengthening of Typhoon Doksuri, which hit China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam and affected more than two million people and killed about 200 people in 2023.

There were nearly 3.5 times the number of marine heatwave days in both 2023 and 2024 compared with any other years on record, it said.

“As a nation dependent on a healthy and productive ocean, especially for poor artisanal fisherfolk and their families in coastal communities for food and livelihood, it is vital that stronger protection measures are in place,” Oceana Acting Vice-President Rose-Liza Eisma-Osorio said in a statement.

“As warmer seas lead to widespread coral bleaching, threatening marine habitat and sustainable fisheries, national and local governments should be held accountable for the safety and survival of the people,” she added.

“The government should effectively implement mitigation and adaptation measures that will result in a resilient marine ecosystem.” 

WORKPLACE INSPECTIONS
Meanwhile, the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP) called for immediate protective measures for workers.

In a statement, the group sought mandatory heat breaks, a buddy system and heat stress orientation sessions to prevent heat-related illnesses and deaths.

“As temperatures continue to spike across Metro Manila and nearby provinces, no worker should suffer from heat exhaustion, collapse from dehydration, or worse, die on the job due to preventable heat stress,” TUCP President and House Deputy Speaker Raymond Democrito C. Mendoza said.

“Protecting workers from extreme heat is not optional but a shared moral and legal obligation of labor, employers, government and all stakeholders,” he added.

As temperatures rise, so do the risks of dehydration and heatstroke, particularly for campaign staff and volunteers engaging in outdoor activities for extended periods, Federation of Free Workers President Jose Sonny G. Matula said in a Viber message.

“With national and local election campaigns in full swing, candidates must also remind their campaign staff and volunteers to take necessary precautions — staying hydrated, wearing protective clothing, taking breaks in shaded areas and adjusting schedules to avoid peak heat hours,” he added.

He called on the government to institutionalize hazard pay for workers exposed to extreme heat and consider incorporating “heat leaves” into the emergency leave provisions of collective bargaining agreements.

While these deals provide leave benefits for calamities such as typhoons, floods, fires and earthquakes, Mr. Matula cited a critical gap when it comes to heat waves.

Mr. Matula also urged the Labor department to conduct workplace inspections to ensure compliance with occupational health and safety standards. — John Victor D. Ordonez, Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza and Chloe Mari A. Hufana

VP remains Pinoy pick for President in 2028

VICE-PRESIDENT SARA DUTERTE-CARPIO — PHILIPINE STAR/ RYAN BALDEMOR

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporters

VICE-PRESIDENT (VP) Sara Duterte-Carpio continues to be the top pick of Filipinos in the 2028 presidential election, according to the latest poll by public opinion research firm WR Numero Research.

In a statement on Monday, the pollster said 29% of Filipinos would vote for Ms. Duterte, whom the House of Representatives impeached on Feb. 5, if the elections were held in February 2025.

Trailing Duterte is Senator Raffy Tulfo with 19%, followed by former Vice-President Leni Robredo at 12%. WR Numero conducted the survey on Feb. 10 to 18.

Senator Grace Poe and senatorial candidate and boxing legend Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao got 4% and 3%, respectively. Other notable names were Senator Maria Imelda “Imee” R. Marcos (3%), Senator Robinhood Ferdinand “Robin” C. Padilla (2%) and Speaker Martin Romualdez and Senator Risa Hontiveros each getting 1%.

“We must wait and see how the impeachment trial will unfold so that we know to what extent her numbers can go up or down,” Jean S. Encinas-Franco, a University of the Philippines political science professor, said in a Viber message.

Ms. Duterte’s domination of news headlines helped elevate her poll numbers, Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “There’s also the persistence of a disinformation network propping her up.”

Mr. Tulfo dropped by almost 5 points from 23.7% in the pollster’s September survey.

“Mr. Tulfo’s novelty might be wearing off, and he might end up being dubbed as a ‘raw candidate,’” Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, said via Messenger.

Meanwhile, the February 2025 noncommissioned survey found that more than one in five Filipinos (23%) were undecided about their presidential pick, while 3% said their preferred candidates were not on the list of potential contenders.

Meanwhile, Ms. Poe emerged as the top bet for Vice-President, with 15.6% of Filipinos saying they would vote for her. Behind her were Ms. Robredo (13.5%), Mr. Pacquiao (9.7%), Mr. Padilla (8.3%), and Ms. Marcos (7%).

About a third of Filipinos were undecided, while 6% said their preferred vice-presidential candidate was not on the list provided by the pollster.

Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (3.3%), Defense Secretary Gilberto Eduardo C. Teodoro (2.8%) and Mr. Romualdez (1.1%) completed WR Numero Research’s vice-presidential survey.

Mr. Romualdez’s poor showing makes him not a viable successor of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. for 2028, Mr. Borja said.

“Mr. Romualdez is suffering the same positional and image issues that Manuel A. Roxas II had under the Aquino administration,” Mr. Juliano said. “The fact that he’s seen as the ‘invisible hand’ of the government continues to hamper his credibility.”

WR Numero interviewed 1,814 Filipinos aged 18 and older for the survey, which had an error margin of ±2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

‘MOST ENGAGING’
Also on Monday, public relations firm Publicus Asia, Inc. said Party-list Rep. Erwin T. Tulfo was the “most engaging” candidate among the administration senatorial bets, with 1.47 million social media engagements. Despite this, he was only fifth in having positive sentiment at 20.5%.

He surpassed Senator Ramon “Bong” B. Revilla, Jr. and presidential sister Senator Maria Imelda Josefa Remedios “Imee” R. Marcos, who got 1.32 million and 1.21 million engagements, respectively.

They were followed by boxer-turned-lawmaker Emmanuel “Manny” D. Pacquiao, Sr. and Senator Francis N. Tolentino, with 902,000 and 724,000 social media engagements, respectively.

Mr. Revilla, a former actor, had the highest positive engagement at 46.1%, followed by Mr. Tolentino with 39.4%, the PR firm said in a statement, citing its social media report covering several platforms including Facebook, X, Instagram, news websites, forums, and Reddit from Jan. 16 to Feb. 15.

Meanwhile, other candidates got neutral sentiment, suggesting limited audience interest in their recent activities, Publicus Asia said.

According to various polls, the top contenders for the 2025 midterm elections included Mr. Tulfo, Mr. Pacquiao, Las Piñas Rep. Camille A. Villar, Senator Manuel M. Lapid, Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano, Makati Mayor Mar-len Abigail S. Binay and former Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III.

Meanwhile, the Duterte-backed Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP) campaign was led by Senator Ronald M. dela Rosa with 1.62 million social media engagements. He was followed by Senator Christopher Lawrence T. Go with 1.37 million.

Mr. Go had the highest number of positive sentiment at 26.6%, while Mr. Dela Rosa had 12.5%.

Self-appointed son of God Apollo C. Quiboloy was third with 921,000 social media engagements; he also got 12.5% positive sentiment.

For independent bets, former Senator Paolo Benigno A. Aquino IV led the pack with 2.84 million social media engagements and the second-highest positive sentiment at 17.4%.

He was followed by former Senator Francis Pancratius N. Pangilinan with 2.25 million engagements and the highest positive sentiment at 18.5%.

Broadcast journalist Bienvenido T. Tulfo trailed at third with 410,000 social media engagements but had one of the lowest positive sentiment at 4.4%.

The campaign period for senatorial and party-list candidates started on Feb. 11, while local bets will start their campaign on March 28.

Up for grabs in the May 12 elections are 317 congressional seats and thousands of local posts. The biggest battle will be for 12 spots in the 24-member Senate, a chamber packed with political heavyweights and wielding outsized influence.

PHL-US defense arrangements to stay intact, says ambassador to Washington

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

EXISTING defense agreements between security allies the Philippines and the US would remain intact under US President Donald J. Trump, Manila’s ambassador to the US said on Monday.

For his part, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. is ready to travel when Mr. Trump has time for a meeting and that could be in the northern spring, Jose Manuel Romualdez told reporters on the sidelines of a forum with foreign media in Manila.

Asked about US security support for the Philippines, including military financing, patrols in the South China Sea and Philippine defense facilities used by US forces under their alliance, Mr. Romualdez said: “All of that will remain.”

The US and former colony the Philippines are staunch defense allies, with US troops rotating in and out of the Southeast Asian nation regularly and dozens of joint military exercises held each year.

The US has also deployed to the Philippines a Typhon multipurpose missile system for training purposes, angering China, which has repeatedly said the move poses a threat to regional stability.

The Philippines was seeking to import liquefied natural gas from the US as part of a “give and take” on trade, Mr. Romualdez said.

His remarks come as some countries in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Thailand, scramble to reduce trade surpluses with the US after Mr. Trump’s order to his government to complete a review of all his country’s trade relationships by April 1.

“Trump’s idea of what the United States wants to do is helping other countries become a real partner,” said Mr. Romualdez, who is a cousin of the Philippine president and was posted in Washington under the previous government.

Political analysts at the weekend said the Philippines should boost its military modernization push and pursue defense ties with other allies to hedge against Mr. Trump’s so-called transactional diplomacy amid increasing tensions with China.

It should cut its dependence on the US to insulate itself from foreign policy shifts of Mr. Trump, whose meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington imploded on Friday after a heated argument, they added.

“Manila should augment its own contingent plan and readiness for self-reliance even if the US still commits to their ironclad promise to the Philippines,” Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Multiple defense partnerships with like-minded countries and continuous military modernization efforts are the best steps that Manila could take now,” he added.

During their meeting, Mr. Trump and the Ukrainian leader clashed in a heated engagement that led to the Ukrainian leader leaving the White House without signing a mineral deal seen by the US as crucial in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, Reuters reported.

Mr. Trump threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine, three years after Russia invaded its smaller neighbor, alarming Europeans who fear a rushed cease-fire could embolden an expansionist Russia.

Mr. Trump has shifted Washington’s policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict since he took over, unravelling three years of US support to Kyiv and leading to the shock of its European allies.

The US, the Philippines’ oldest treaty ally, has been Ukraine’s most important bulwark against attacks by Russia, which invaded the Eastern European nation in February 2022.

“We do not like to hear from the US that one day, just like what Mr. Trump has said to Mr. Zelensky, that without their support, Ukraine can be easily defeated,” Mr. Cabalza said. — Reuters

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