By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should start looking at how the bloc of emerging economies that seek to reshape the global order could affect its national security in the future, geopolitical analysts said at the weekend.

Expansion was a key point during the recent summit of the BRICS alliance, which is seen countering the West-dominated world order.

The BRICS, which is composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, recently invited six countries to join its fold — Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the world’s biggest oil producers, as well as Egypt, Argentina and Ethiopia.

“Certainly, one of the goals of the BRICS is to weaken the petro-dollar as the world’s currency and perhaps nominate the China-led yuan currency in the near future,” said Chester B. Cabalza, founder of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation.

“The possibility of bandwagoning with the BRICS will all matter with our national interests since the members will be the future economic leaders of the world based on global economic foresights,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

The Philippines should consider its “political and security dynamics” with China, the de facto leader of the BRICS that could act more aggressively in the South China Sea, Mr. Cabalza said.

Tensions between the Philippines and China have worsened after the Chinese Coast Guard fired water cannons to block Manila’s resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal on Aug. 5.

Mr. Cabalza noted that India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and the most populous country in the grouping, recently expressed support for a 2016 arbitral ruling that voided China’s claim to more than 80% of the South China Sea.

Experts have said India, which has improved ties with the United States amid China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, might soon be forced to choose between the West and BRICS.

India and China have competing visions for the BRICS, which is being shaped by China and Russia to become an openly anti-western platform.

“Certain members continue to attempt to make use of their membership to shift the direction of BRICS into a rival bloc,” said Don Mclain Gill, who teaches foreign relations at De La Salle University in Manila.

He was referring to China and Russia, whose tensions with the US and other western countries have escalated after Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year.

Iran, whose hardline religious and military leaders have maintained an anti-western stance, is among the six countries that are poised to join the grouping, with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s political deputy calling the move a “strategic victory for Iran’s foreign policy.”

“But the rest of the BRICS members are neither anti-west, nor interested in challenging the West,” Mr. Gill said, noting that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt are major defense partners of the US and benefit from US security provisions. 

‘HEDGING’
“India, Brazil and South Africa have made it clear that development and expansion of BRICS would always be centered on the interests of the global south,” he said.

In a note, Dutch multinational banking corporation ING Group said the possible membership of Saudi Arabia in BRICS adds “fresh impetus to the de-dollarization debate, which is a potential challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in global trade.”

But it said the grouping’s tense relations with the West “raised doubts about whether Saudi Arabia would formalize political and economic ties with the BRICS.”

The admission of Saudi Arabia to the BRICS grouping will “inevitably focus debate on the use of nondollar currencies in trade,” it said, noting the “ambitions of BRICS to de-dollarize.”

“There certainly will be increased speculation that this latest move could see Saudi Arabia increasingly switching to nondollar-denominated currencies for oil trade.”

The six new candidates are poised to become members on Jan. 1, 2024, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on the last day of a three-day summit in Johannesburg.

BRICS, a consensus-based organization, was formed by Brazil, Russia, China and India in 2009 and included South Africa in its only previous expansion in 2010.

Mr. Gill said the BRICS, which account for a quarter of the global economy, should be looked at more positively by developing countries and middle powers such as the Philippines “given that [it provides] a voice for the global south.”

“However, Manila will have to navigate carefully and selectively given the fact that some members may weaponize such institutions, thus deviating from its intended purpose,” he said.

“At the end of the day, Philippine foreign policy should always reflect the country’s national interest, sovereignty and sovereign rights rather than indulging in any sort of rigid bloc politics.”

Aaron Jed Rabena, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, said the Philippines is increasing engagements with western allies like India and Japan, “and it should do the same with Middle Eastern, Latin American and even African countries.”

“The Philippines should maintain relations with all developed and emerging powers alike as opportunities and risks abound in both,” he said via Messenger chat. “This is part of hedging and of having a balanced and diversified foreign policy.”