By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza and Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should brace itself for a more aggressive China as it is now under pressure to devise new tactics with a focus on deceptive propaganda amid vigilance from the international community, according to analysts.

The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG), backed by Beijing’s maritime militia and navy vessels, on Friday attempted to block a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) with Philippine authorities recording at least 10 instances of dangerous maneuvers committed by the Chinese.

“We will expect massive swarming of Chinese armada and drones in the West Philippine Sea as they will try to contain our maritime law enforcers,” said Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation founder Chester B. Cabalza.

“China will confront us in terms of their size and quantity of vessels to counter our meek contingent at sea and joint maritime patrols with allied countries,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

The Philippines was able to deliver food and other supplies for troops stationed on a World War II-era ship grounded in the shoal despite China’s new display of aggression.

“At one instance, we saw how a CCGV (vessel) conducted dangerous maneuvers in between our RORE vessel and the escorting PCG (Philippine Coast Guard) vessel, which is a very irresponsible and unprofessional act,” Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Spokesman Medel Aguilar said in a statement.

Four CCG and four maritime militia vessels harassed BRP Cabra and BRP Sindangan, as well as ships contracted by the AFP, “jeopardizing the crew members’ safety,” PCG spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Jay Tarriela said — all of which were shown in PCG video footages made public.

“It can be expected for China to devise new strategies of dual-purpose nature to strengthen its presence in the West Philippine Sea,” said Don Mclain Gill, who teaches foreign relations at the De La Salle University, referring to parts of the South China Sea that are within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

“It (China) has to change its strategy given that it is now once again under the spotlight of international condemnation,” he said via Messenger chat.

Raymond M. Powell, the South China Sea lead at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, reported that aside from two China Coast Guard ships and 10 maritime militia vessels that tried to block the Philippine vessels, a Chinese cargo ship was also present during the Friday mission “for unclear purposes.”

“Previous resupply missions encountered ‘dark’’ China Coast Guard ships (not broadcasting automatic information system, or AIS),” he said in a tweet. “Unclear if dark ships present today, but forward deployment of so many militia ships suggests fewer CCG than before.”

He said Beijing employed bow-crossing, a harassment tactic “in which a ship abruptly maneuvers to cross dangerously across the bow of another in violation of the 1972 International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) and the 2014 Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES).”

“This maneuver is intended to force the other ship to take evasive action to avoid a collision. It may be used to disrupt freedom of navigation operations (FONOPS) or other assertions of international law or national sovereignty,” he said, citing an analysis published by Stanford defense scholar Gaute Friis in July.

Mr. Gill said it is necessary for the Philippine government “to take every action of the CCG and the People’s Liberation Army Navy with a grain of salt given that Beijing has clearly illustrated its unwillingness to engage based on rules.”

The Philippines needs to be alert and expect the worst-case scenario in terms of Chinas behavior, he added.

“China will confront us in terms of their size and quantity of vessels to counter our meek contingent at sea and joint maritime patrols with allied countries,” Mr. Cabalza said, citing the need to upgrade the Philippines’ coast guard force.

China’s harassment on Friday happened just a day after the four-day gathering of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for their 43^rd summit in Indonesia.

LEVERAGING ASEAN TIES
At the 18^th East Asia Summit last Thursday, which was also attended by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. urged his Southeast Asian counterparts to take action over what he described as dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels in the South China Sea.

“We must oppose the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels in the South China Sea,” he said

Mr. Marcos said the Philippines is also concerned “over illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and the militarization of reclaimed features” in the waterway.

“We call on ASEAN and our partners to harness our shared interests and rally us into taking joint action, guided by ASEAN Centrality and universal multilateralism,” he said.

Mr. Marcos had said that while the Philippines does want to be involved in any violent conflict, it would not hesitate to stand up to foreign aggression.

“Let me be clear, we do not seek conflict. But it is our duty as citizens and as leaders, to always rise and meet any challenge to our sovereignty, to our sovereign rights, and our maritime jurisdiction in the South China Sea,” he said at the 43^rd ASEAN Summit Retreat in Jakarta on Tuesday. “No country would expect any less. No country would do any less.”

Security in Southeast Asia and the whole Indo-Pacific region has been a major discussion among ASEAN countries, as they deal with the increasing tension between the US and China, which has ramped up its aggression in Philippine waters through provocative actions that stop short of a war.

AVOID ‘EITHER-OR’ POLICY — ANALYSTS
Analysts said over the weekend that the Philippines should avoid an “either-or” kind of foreign policy in dealing with geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.

Instead, it should advance its diplomatic ties with ASEAN member-states, most of which also have interests in the disputed sea.

“There’s a tendency to see or at least to look at the Philippines as going too close to the United States (US) at the expense of our relationship with China so our situation is becoming a zero-sum game in terms of how we actually deal the great power,” Herman Joseph S. Kraft, a political science professor at University of the Philippines, said in a video interview.

“Relations within the region is increasingly being dominated by the rivalry between China and the United States,” Mr. Kraft said, noting that the rivalry between the two superpowers narrows down ASEAN cooperation.

Victor Andres C. Manhit, president of Stratbase ADR Institute, said the Philippines’ legal victory at United Nations-based arbitration court, The Hague, is widely recognized, signifying the opportunity to advance cooperation with other ASEAN nations.

“As more aggressive activities are reported in the West Philippine Sea, it only fuels more commitment to cooperate in the maritime area among like-minded states,” Mr. Manhit said in a Viber chat.

Mr. Kraft said ASEAN countries should have a “collective voice,” in dealing with the South China Sea dispute.

“The problem is right now ASEAN can’t act collectively on this because even as it tries to strengthen ASEAN centrality, the strategic relationship of ASEAN countries is differentiated in terms of how they deal with both the US and China,” he said.

The situation in the South China Sea was discussed in the 2023 ASEAN Summit last week in Jakarta, Indonesia, in which “concerns were expressed by some ASEAN Member States on the land reclamations, activities, serious incidents in the area, including actions that put the safety of all persons at risk, damage to the marine environment, which have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions, and may undermine peace, security, and stability in the region,” according to the Chairman’s Statement.

“We reaffirmed the need to enhance mutual trust and confidence, exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation,” it also said.

Mr. Manhit noted that the ASEAN and China have yet to finalize a code of conduct for navigating the South China Sea, which was not even mentioned in the ASEAN statement.

Meanwhile, China continues to ignore a 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed arbitration court that voided its claim to more than 80% of the South China Sea.

“Six years has already passed since the ruling, I think it is high time for states to take a more active stance in enforcing international law,” Mr. Manhit said.

The Philippines should advance infrastructure development and free trade agreements with ASEAN countries to strengthen ties, as well as decrease import dependency on China, said Mr. Gill.

“Such partnerships should also focus on economic cooperation as well given that China’s provocations are fueled by its economic advantages over its less powerful neighbors,” the DLSU professor said. “Hence, a comprehensive partnership that focuses on both defense and economics will be crucial for Manila.”