Among the important developments in global energy recently was not the “surging” prices of oil, natural gas, or coal, as there was none.
From end-December 2022 to Jan. 16, 2024, these were the prices of oil, gas, and coal: WTI crude oil, $77/barrel to $72/barrel; US natural gas, $3.54/metric million British thermal unit (MMBtu) to $2.82/MMBtu; Coal (Newcastle) $390/ton to $129/ton. Meanwhile, the solar energy index was $331 to $233, the wind energy index was $299 to $276, and the EU carbon permits were $90/ton to $68/ton.
In contrast, over the same period the price of uranium went from $48.84/pound (lb) to $92.5/lb, and the nuclear energy index rose from $1,462 to $2,148. Almost double in price in less than 13 months.
So, fossil fuel prices are down — good. Financial returns on wind, solar, and the penalization of carbon emissions are down — good too. Meanwhile the prices of nuclear energy are rising. This implies that as countries and companies “transition” away from fossil fuels and “decarbonize,” they do not go towards more wind and solar. Rather, they go towards nuclear energy.
NUCLEAR POWER BY COUNTRIES
I checked the nuclear energy use of countries from 1985 to 2022 and their economic growth during the same period. I grouped them into three: in Group A are the G7 countries (except Italy which has no nuclear energy), in Group B are other European countries, and in Group C are Asian countries.
The G7 countries have either plateaued or decreased their electricity generation from nuclear (which is very high energy density, cheap, stable, and reliable) and they experienced low or declining growth. Most notable are Japan, Germany, and United Kingdom. France remains the most nuclear-intensive country in the world.
Group B countries show a mixed trend, with Russia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary exhibiting a rising trend in their nuclear/total generation ratio. Russia and Hungary have recovered from deep economic contractions in the early 1990s. The other Europeans have either plateaued their nuclear/total generation ratios or have seen it decline like Sweden and Belgium — which are still at high levels of 30% and 46% respectively in 2022.
Group C also exhibited a mixed trend. China, India, and Pakistan are newbies in nuclear energy, and they are just ramping up, which should have helped them keep their high average growth of 4% to 6.6% from 2011-2022. South Korea and Taiwan started using nuclear energy early, but Taiwan “denuclearized” fast as they shifted to more natural gas. South Korea and Taiwan have had slow growth in the past decade (see the table).
I added in the table the hypothetical contribution of the Philippines’ Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) with 620 MW in installed capacity. If the average capacity factor was 85%, then its dependable capacity would have been 527 MW. So, in one day, or 24 hours, it could generate 12,648 megawatt-hours (MWH) of electricity; in one year, 4.62 million MWH or 4.62 TWH. If the BNPP had been allowed to operate in 1985, it could have contributed or added 20% to the total power generation in 1985, and 4% in 2022.
THE 2ND ANNUAL RUPERTO P. ALONZO LECTURE
The UP School of Economics (UPSE) Program in Development Economics Alumni Association (PDEAA) in partnership with the Philippine Center for Economic Development (PCED) will hold the second Ruperto P. Alonzo (RPA) annual lecture on the theme, “The Nuclear Option and Economic Growth” on Feb. 8, 3 p.m. at the UPSE in Diliman, Quezon City.
The main speaker will be Department of Energy (DoE) Undersecretary Sharon S. Garin and the discussants will be Irma Exconde (PDE Batch 37 and DoE Director), yours truly (PDE Batch 33), an anti-nuke group Asian Peoples’ Movement for debt and development, and, possibly, Dr. Caloy Arcilla of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI).
Prof. Ruperto “Ruping” Alonzo was a well-loved faculty member of UPSE for 45 years (1968-2013) and was named Professor Emeritus in 2016. He was the Director for PDE for many years, was UP Vice-President for Development (2005-2009), Director of the Institute for Small Scale Industries (2004-2009) and was Deputy Director-General of National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA, 1998-2001). He passed away in 2017.
The first RPA lecture was held on Feb. 8, 2023 at UPSE on the subject of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) and the speaker was Cynthia Hernandez, Executive Director of the PPP Center and also from PDE Batch 33.
The PDEAA is happy to get the corporate sponsorships of Aboitiz Power (AP), Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), and Robinsons Retail Holdings.
So far only two energy companies have expressed explicit plans to develop nuclear power in the country, AP and Meralco/MGen — great guys. The two companies have both power generation and distribution businesses. For now, they are expanding their renewable energy (RE) generation because the RE law of 2008 (RA 9513) mandates the renewable portfolio standards (RPS). But RE, especially wind-solar, have very low energy density and low-capacity factors and hence have low actual power generation despite high installed capacity.
As the insane “decarbonization” policies continue worldwide, energy companies must develop nuclear power to prevent the country from going down the road of deindustrialization and degrowth brought about by more RE.
Robinsons Retail Holdings is a big energy consumer because of their wide-ranging business units — department stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, DIY and hardware stores, appliance and electronics, toys, etc. Cheap, stable and reliable, no-blackout energy sources, regardless of the weather, will help them provide more convenience and affordable prices for their customers.
Proceeds of the corporate sponsorships will go to the planned PDEAA room at the expanded UPSE building. The 2nd RPA lecture is open to the public and media, with no registration fee, both onsite and online.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.
minimalgovernment@gmail.com
