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Sarasadat Khademalsharieh

In the year 2018 rapid and blitz chess have become more popular than ever before. Even in the Grand Chess Tour there were two legs out of the five total which feature exclusively the quicker time controls.
The Kramnik-Topalov world championship match in 2006, Anand vs Gelfand in 2012 and Carlsen-Karjakin 2016 and Carlsen-Caruana 2018 were all decided in the rapid tiebreaks, the latter match because all of the 12 standard games ended in draws, the first time it ever happened.
The just-concluded World Rapid and Blitz Championships in St. Petersburg saw a huge prize fund and thousands of spectators every day during the competition.
Daniil Dubov won the Rapid World Championship with 11/15 ahead of Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, Hikaru Nakamura, Vladislav Artemiev and Magnus Carlsen with 10.5/15. On tiebreaks Mamedyarov and Nakamura were awarded the silver and bronze, respectively. Magnus Carlsen won the blitz section with 17/21, a half point ahead of Poland’s Jan-Krzysztof Duda who chased him all the way and just fell short. As in the rapid portion Hikaru Nakamura took 3rd place.
Top earner was Magnus Carlsen. His rapid earnings ($36,250) added to his blitz win ($60,000) and the special $20,000 first prize for the best combined performance came out to $116,250 for the five-day tournament, approximately P6.1 million.
In the women’s section reigning Women’s World Champion Ju Wenjun won the Rapid Section with Iran’s Sarasadat Khademalsharieh and Aleksandra Goryachkina trailing one full point behind. Kateryna Lagno (Russia) won the women’s blitz ahead of Khademalsharief and China’s Lei Tingjie.
Top money-earned in the women’s side is IM Sarasadat Khademalsharieh who got $25,000 for tying for 2nd-3rd in the rapid and 30,000 for solo second in the blitz. These two, added to the $14,000 she received as the first combined in the women’s section totaled $69,000, approximately P3.6 million, not bad at all.
Never heard of Khademalsharieh? Well, that is precisely what this article is about.
She is also known as Sara Khadem or, the long version, Sara-sadat Khadem Al-Sharieh. Sara was born March 10, 1997 in Tehran, Iran. I first heard about her at the 2016 Tehran Grand Prix. Since the tournament was held in Tehran the organizers were entitled to nominate one player, and that was Sara. She was only 19 years old and the lowest rated player in the field but her play was a revelation and she came close to overall victory — in fact, Sara entered the final round as co-leader but a loss to Ukraine’s Natalia Zhukova knocked her down to shared second place with Zhao Xue (China). Nevertheless, the second place was quite a terrific accomplishment (Ju Wenjun won the event).
And then there is the famous “hijab controversy” during the 2017 Women’s World Championship held in Tehran. It all started when the American chess champion, Nazi Paikidze (an immigrant from Georgia), said she would boycott the games on grounds that female participants would need to wear the “hijab,” or head scarf, which is mandatory for women in Iran. She started an online petition to “stop women’s oppression” and to challenge the chess federation’s decision.
The media of course ate this up and there was even a movement to remove Tehran as host of the championships.
Sara Khadem was one of Iran’s women players who spoke up that the proposed boycott to “stop women’s oppression” is not what Iran’s players want. Participating in international games, and hosting them, she says, only works to give Iranian women opportunities, which many have had to fight bitterly for. “It’s had such a huge effect on me, to play around the world,” she said. “And it is a great encouragement to Iranian young women to have foreign players come here, their presence is so considerable.”
This whole thing seemed rather stupid to me. Aren’t guests supposed to show respect to the host by observing their cultural traditions? In the same way a woman should take off her shoes before entering a Hindu temple or remove her hat in a Christian church, what’s wrong with asking women to wear a hijab, which is just a light scarf? The male chauvinist pig in me also notes that many women actually look very good in hijabs. Any female visitor to Iran is asked to wear a hijab, so what’s the big deal? If Nazi doesn’t agree with it, then a personal boycott is ok. Why call for everybody else to boycott? Sheesh.
The good news is that the women’s world chess championship pushed through in Tehran and the Chinese GM Tan Zhongyi (a recent Philippine visitor who took part in the Asian Continental Chess Championship last December) won.
OK, now that we know a little bit more of Sarasadat let us look at her chess.

Khademalsharieh, Sarasadat (2470) — Arabidze, Meri (2387) [D25]
FIDE Wch Rapid w St. Petersburg (8.10), 27.12.2018

1.d4 d5 2.c4 dxc4 3.e3 Nf6 4.Nf3 Bg4 5.Bxc4 e6 6.Nc3 Nbd7 7.h3 Bh5 8.g4
IM Sara-sadat Khadem Al-Sharieh has a very sweet smile and pleasant countenance but don’t let that fool you — over the board she is a very active player geared to the attack. There are many ways to proceed for White in this position but she goes for the most aggressive setup: castle queenside and then a kingside pawn-storm. Before that though she has to get rid of Black’s light-squared bishop as after queenside castling an enemy bishop on g6 will be very inconvenient.
8…Bg6 9.Nh4 c6 10.Nxg6 hxg6 11.Bd2
The Russian-Israeli IM Ilya Tsesarsky played 11.Qf3! to facilitate queenside castling. Then after 11…Be7 12.Bd2 a6 13.Bb3 Nd5 14.e4 Nc7 (maybe she should have just taken the c3–knight) 15.0–0–0 Bg5 16.Qg3! Bxd2+ 17.Rxd2 Qb8!? 18.f4 White’s offensive is already looking very scary. I want you to see how this game ended: 18…Nb5 19.e5!? c5 (White was going to follow-up with Ne4, so Black gets in this move at once) 20.d5 exd5 21.Bxd5 Nb6 22.e6 Nxd5 23.Nxd5 fxe6 24.Re1 Nd4 25.Rxd4! cxd4 26.Rxe6+ Kf8 27.Qa3+ Kg8 28.Ne7+ Kf7 29.Qb3 Qe8 30.Re5+ Kf8 31.Qe6 1–0. Tsesarsky,I (2458)-Zifroni,D (2531) Ramat Aviv 2000.
11…Nb6 12.Bb3 a5 13.a3 Be7 14.Kf1 Kf8 15.Kg2 c5 16.Qf3 a4
“Winning” the d4 pawn won’t work: 16…cxd4 17.exd4 Qxd4? 18.Be3 is very awkward for Black. If you want we can carry the analysis for a few more moves: 18…Qd6 19.Rhd1 Nfd5 (19…Qc7 20.Rac1) 20.Nxd5 Nxd5 21.Rac1 with Bc5 coming up, Black is in a bind.
17.Ba2 Kg8 18.Rad1 cxd4 19.Bc1 d3 20.Qxb7 Rb8 21.Qa6 Qc7 22.Qxd3 Qc6+ 23.e4 Nfd7 24.Bf4 Rb7 25.Qb5 Qc8
Exchanging queens 25…Qxb5 26.Nxb5 leaves White in the driver’s seat with no counterplay in sight.
26.Qe2 Qc6 27.Rd2 Kh7 28.Rhd1 Bf6 29.Rd6 Qc5 <D>
POSITION AFTER 29…QC5
30.e5! Nxe5?
The alternative is 30…Be7 even though it still leads to a miserable game after 31.Ne4! Qc7 32.Ng5+ Bxg5 (32…Kg8? 33.Nxe6!) 33.Bxg5.
31.Ne4 Qa5 32.Bd2 Qa8 33.Bc3
Threatening Bxe5, Bxe5, Ng5+
33…Ned7 34.Qf3 Bxc3 35.Ng5+ Kh6
[35…Kg8 36.Qxf7#]
36.Nxf7+ Kh7 37.Nxh8 Be5 38.Rxd7 Rxd7 39.Qxa8 Rxd1 40.Qe4 1–0
It is a complete rout.

Khademalsharieh, Sarasadat (2470) — Galliamova, Alisa (2444) [D30]
FIDE Wch Blitz w St. Petersburg (13.5), 30.12.2018

1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6 3.Nf3 Nf6 4.e3 e6 5.b3
The problem with rapid and blitz tournaments is that there is hardly any time to study your opponents’ opening repertoire and prepare your plan of attack based on that. IM Sara has had this opening formation six times previously. she won five and drew one. In most games she put one bishop on d3, another bishop on b2, castled kingside, then Qe2 after which, depending on Black’s formation, White plays e3–e4 or Nf3–e5 and f2–f4 and then goes for a kingside attack. Simple but very effective.
5…Nbd7
Here is what might happen if Black just develops pieces without a general plan to counter White’s initiative. 5…Be7 6.Bd3 b6 7.0–0 Bb7 8.Bb2 Nbd7 9.Nc3 0–0 10.Qe2 c5 11.Rad1 cxd4 12.exd4 Rc8 13.Ne5 dxc4 14.bxc4 Qc7 15.Nb5 Qb8 16.d5 Nc5 (16…exd5 17.Nxd7) 17.d6 Bd8 18.Bb1 a6 19.d7 Ncxd7 20.Nxd7 Nxd7 21.Rxd7 axb5 22.Qh5 h6 23.Bxg7! 1–0 (23) Khademalsharieh,S (2423)-Sedaghati,M (2337) Teheran 2016 (23.Bxg7 Kxg7 24.Qg6+ Kh8 25.Qh7#)
6.Bd3 Bb4+ 7.Nbd2 Ne4 8.0–0 Nxd2 9.Bxd2 Bd6 10.e4 dxe4 11.Bxe4 h6
A pointless move. The Greek Gift Sacrifice 11…0–0 12.Bxh7+ Kxh7 13.Ng5+ Kg8 14.Qh5 does not work because Black has 14…Nf6. However, you see this move a lot in blitz games because you don’t want to waste time calculating Bxh7+
12.Bc3 0–0 13.Re1 Nf6 14.Bc2 c5 15.Qd3
Take a long look at White’s attacking formation. This is deadly and almost winning already. There is a mating threat on h7 which is prevented by the Nf6, so White can either attack it by d4–d5 followed by Bxf6 or Nf3–e5–g4. However, at present Black has ways to defend against these maneuvers so you have to prepare it. IM Sara’s execution is most efficient.
15…cxd4 16.Bxd4 Be7
16…Bc7 is better so as to be able to chop off the White knight when it lands on e5.
17.Rad1
I do not see a defense for Black anymore.
17…b6 18.Ne5 Bb7 19.Ng4 g6
[19…Re8 20.Rxe6! fxe6 21.Nxh6+ gxh6 22.Qg6+ it’s game over — mate follows]
20.Nxh6+ Kg7 21.Nxf7 Rxf7 22.Qxg6+ Kf8 23.Bxf6 Qc7 24.Qh6+ Ke8 25.Qh8+ Bf8 26.Rxe6+ 1–0
Nothing much you can say about that, she’s really got the goods. Enough, I daresay, to become woman’s world chess champion in a few years.
 
Bobby Ang is a founding member of the National Chess Federation of the Philippines (NCFP) and its first Executive Director. A Certified Public Accountant (CPA), he taught accounting in the University of Santo Tomas (UST) for 25 years and is currently Chief Audit Executive of the Equicom Group of Companies.
bobby@cpamd.net

Off the court tussle

The Warriors and Cavaliers are going at it again, but this time off the court. The subject of their conflict: Patrick McCaw, who, in two full seasons with the defending champions, averaged a whopping four, one, and one in 16 minutes of exposure. Including even more anemic numbers in the playoffs, he proved as crucial to their title runs as just about any other player riding the pine for them. Still, they wanted him back, and offered him a two-year contract worth $5.2 million that he subsequently declined because the second year wasn’t guaranteed. Enter the 2018 runners-up, with whom he signed a deal that his previous employers couldn’t match, and for whom he then wound up playing only three games.
Given the circumstances, the Warriors are crying foul, and have asked the Commissioner’s Office to investigate the manner in which McCaw wound up first with the Cavaliers, and then on waivers after a single week. No doubt, the 38th overall pick in the 2016 draft was miffed that negotiations on his salary dragged on to December, especially coming after an injury that had him missing most of the 2018 playoffs. Even as he understood that the blue and yellow were angling to avoid a huge luxury tax bill in retaining him, he felt that he needed security, and, in light of his contributions to the cause, deserved the cap hit. And though it may well have been what led him and agent Bill Duffy to the doorstep of the wine and gold, the fact that he seemed to hitch his future on non-guaranteed terms (as opposed to partially guaranteed ones) and then promptly secured unrestricted free agency was unacceptable to the titleholders.
True, McCaw was well within his rights to do as he did. And, true, the Cavaliers were well within their rights to get him and then, after seeing him in limited action, to let him go right before his contract would have been guaranteed. Considering how things played out, however, the Warriors evidently believe they conspired to ensure the development from the outset, and they have thus triggered a review of the proceedings. And, yes, the National Basketball Association has broad powers to do so, and can act accordingly. The flipside, of course, is that, even if collusion did occur, its very nature makes it extremely difficult to prove. Moreover, it appears to be counterbalanced by the $300,000 they had to shell out for his short stint.
Interestingly, the Cavaliers have expressed willingness to sign McCaw anew, but to a lower salary in exchange for a longer guaranteed period. Meanwhile, the Warriors are resolved to push their complaint, never mind his meager role in their aspirations for the hardware; broken down to brass tacks, their bid for a threepeat will not be impacted either way by his presence or absence. Clearly, they’re bent on making a point, with their motivations buoyed by the familiar sight of their rivals on the other side. Whether or not the NBA will ultimately enable them to make it, though, is another matter altogether.
 
Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994.

Gov’t sells $1.5 billion in global bonds

THE PHILIPPINES sold $1.5 billion in 10-year offshore dollar bonds — priced 110 basis points (bps) above benchmark US treasuries and tighter than an initial 130 bps guidance — in an exercise which Finance officials said reflected investor confidence in the country.
“The Republic of the Philippines (ROP) successfully returned to the international capital markets with its offering of $1.5 billion of 10-year global bonds. The newly issued global bonds were priced at US Treasury spreads of T+110 bps after an initial pricing guidance of T+130 bps area,” the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said in a statement e-mailed to journalists on Tuesday.
About 37% of the bonds were allocated to Asia, 35% to Europe, and 28% to the United States, according to the BTr.
Bulk of the ROP bonds, or 52%; went to asset managers; 22% went to banks; 14% to sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and insurance; as well as 12% to private banks and other type of investors.
The debt notes are rated a notch above minimum investment grade at “BBB” by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings, and “Baa2” by Moody’s Investors Service.
The notes will be settled on January 14.
Funds raised will be used for “general purposes, including budgetary support.”
The government said that it timed the issuance to gain favorable terms, being the first emerging market economy to offer offshore dollar bonds.
“Capitalizing on the recent positive markets trading tone post the strong US employment data release on Friday, the Republic opportunistically announced the issuance on Monday, Jan. 7, 2019. The issuance marks the first EM sovereign USD bond issuance in 2019 and demonstrates the Republic’s ability to respond tactically to conducive market conditions to capture a favorable issuance window,” the BTr said.
INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
The offering attracted $4 billion in demand and signals investor confidence in the Philippines, National Treasurer Rosalia V. de Leon told Reuters.
Finance Assistant Secretary Antonio Joselito G. Lambino II said the tenders were more than double the offer size. “The Bureau of the Treasury priced the Philippines’ $1.5 billion, 10-year USD Global bond at 110 bps over US Treasuries, and an all-in yield of 3.75%. The issue garnered strong demand as the order book peaked at $4 billion,” Mr. Lambino said in a mobile phone message.
Finance officials said the positive result of the country’s first debt sale to foreign investors this year comes amid increased volatility in global markets.
“This transaction further illustrates deepening investor confidence in the Philippines’ growth story and the Duterte administration’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline while spending big on infrastructure modernization, human capital development and social protection for the poor,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said in a statement.
The same press release quoted Ms. De Leon as noting: “We have garnered strong support from the global fixed-income investor community despite recently heightened volatilities in the global markets.”
“This demonstrates strong conviction from the global investor community on the Republic’s economic fundamentals as well as the depth of the Republic’s investor outreach.”
Bank of China, J.P. Morgan, and Standard Chartered Bank acted as Joint Global Coordinators for the transaction, while Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., and UBS acted as joint bookrunners for the transaction.
The government plans to borrow up to P1.19 trillion this year, with a 75-25 borrowing mix in favor of local creditors.
The administration of President Rodrigo R. Duterte seeks to spend P8-9 trillion throughout its six-year term ending in mid-2022 to boost economic growth to 7-8% annually by then from a 6.3% average in the six years of its predecessor.
The Finance department has said that it also plans to return to other offshore bond markets through renminbi-denominated “Panda” bonds and yen-denominated “Samurai” bonds 12-18 months after their previous issuance in March and August 2018, respectively. It is also exploring to tap bond markets in Europe. — Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan

Meralco bills lower this month

MANILA ELECTRIC CO. (Meralco) started the year with a reduction in the overall electricity rate to P9.835 per kilowatt-hour (/kWh) for January bills, down P0.3418/kWh from last month.
For typical households using 200 kWh, their monthly power bill will go down by around P68, the power distributor said in a statement on Tuesday.
Households using 300 kWh, 400 kWh and 500 kWh can expect their bills to decrease by P102.54, P136.72 and P170.90, respectively.
Meralco said the reduction, from P10.1803/kWh in December, was mainly due to the lower cost of power from its power supply agreements (PSA).
“[L]ower PSA charges were brought about by a reduction in capacity fees as a result of the annual reconciliation of outage allowances done at the end of each year under the PSAs approved by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC),” Meralco Public Information Office Head Joe R. Zaldarriaga said in a statement.
The generation charge for January went down to P4.9119/kWh, a P0.4184/kWh reduction from December’s P5.3303/kWh.
The decrease is largely the result of a P1.2293/kWh reduction in cost of power from Meralco’s PSAs, which provided 40% of the utility’s requirement for the December supply month whose charges appear in January bills.
Mr. Zaldarriaga said early completion of annual capacity payment for the Sual power plant’s unit 1, as well as Ilijan, Pagbilao’s unit 1 and Panay Energy Development Corp. “resulted in savings immediately passed on to consumers by way of lower electricity rates.”
“The capacity fees of PSAs will return to normal levels in January that will impact on February bills after the downward adjustment in December,” he added.
Meanwhile, charges from the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) dropped by P0.0165 per kWh because of the improvement in the Luzon power situation. Meralco said demand for power in the Luzon grid went down by 101 megawatts.
The cost of power from the independent power producers (IPP) rose by P0.0847/kWh due to peso’s weakness. The utility said about 92% of IPP charges are dollar-denominated.
WESM and IPPs accounted for 18% and 42%, respectively, of Meralco’s supply.
The transmission charge of residential customers increased by P0.1210/kWh in January due to higher ancillary service charges from the system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP).
Taxes and other charges slipped by P0.0444/kWh.
Meralco said in its statement that its distribution, supply and metering charges have been unchanged for 42 months, after these were reduced in July 2015.
It reiterated that it does not earn from the pass-through charges, since payments for the generation charge go to power suppliers while payments for the transmission charge go to NGCP. — V. V. Saulon

Fitch Solutions sees fiscal deficit falling below ceiling programmed for this year

THE PHILIPPINES will likely fall short of its budget deficit ceiling for 2019, Fitch Solutions said, explaining that it expects the government “to underspend” this year.
“We forecast the Philippines’ budget deficit as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) to come in at 2.9% in 2019, unchanged from our 2018 estimate. The shortfall would mark a share increase from 2.2% of GDP in 2017,” Fitch Solutions said in a report published on Tuesday.
The 2019 national budget assumes a wider fiscal gap at P624.4 billion equivalent to 3.2% of GDP, with authorities expecting a sustained rise in government spending as the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure drive is expected to accelerate further.
The fiscal gap stood at P477.2 billion as of end-November, shy of the P523.7-billion ceiling programmed for 2018. State revenues were up by 16% year-on-year at P2.618 trillion, versus a 24% surge in disbursements worth P3.095 trillion, according to the Bureau of the Treasury.
The Department of Budget and Management has put together a P3.575-trillion spending plan for the year, but this awaits ratification by Congress. Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno warned in November that failure to pass the budget on time will mean a delay in the rollout of new projects, as operating on a re-enacted budget will leave them unfunded.
“The government is likely to underspend its budget in 2019 but slower-than-expected revenue growth means that the deficit will still come in at close to three percent,” the research unit of the Fitch Group said in the report.
The economic think tank believes that the fiscal gap will steady due to “slower-than-expected” revenue growth.
Succeeding tax reform packages remain pending in the legislative mill, even as most of them are projected to be revenue-neutral, compared to Republic Act No. 10963 or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act that took effect in January 2018 and is expected to bring in additional revenues.
Fitch Solutions also flagged “rising” risks, saying: “We believe that there is no imminent threat to macroeconomic stability from the government’s wider fiscal shortfall in the near-term, but note that the Philippine economy appears to be overheating and downside risks are increasing.”
Sister firm Fitch Ratings raised concern in December last year that the Philippine economy has been showing signs of overheating, as reflected by double-digit rates of increase in bank lending as well as a ballooning external trade gap. Still, the credit rater kept the Philippines at “BBB” — notch above minimum investment grade status — with a stable outlook.
The government is setting sights on 7-8% growth GDP this year, following a downward-revised 6.5-6.9% projection for 2018. A sustained pickup in infrastructure investment is expected to fuel growth, at a time when consumer spending is softening as prices are on the rise. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

Money supply picks up in November even as loan growth eases

MORE MONEY circulated in the economy in November last year, even as loan growth continued to ease in the wake of a fifth increase in benchmark interest rates by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) that month.
Domestic liquidity or M3 — the broadest measure of money in an economy — increased by 8.4% that month, slightly up from 8.3% in October. This translates to P11.251 trillion, according to latest data the central bank released on Tuesday.
Month-on-month, liquidity edged up by 0.5%.
Strong credit demand fueled the sustained increase in liquidity at the fastest pace in two months.
Domestic claims saw a softer rise of 14.6% in November, versus the preceding month’s 15.2% increase.
Meanwhile, net claims on the national government went up by a faster 12.1% compared to October’s 11.2%.
Net foreign assets in peso terms contracted anew in November, with a 3.2% year-on-year decline compared a five percent reduction previously.
Foreign assets maintained by the BSP grew in November as dollar reserves increased at a time of a stronger peso. However, those held by banks posted a slower increase due to a softer pickup in loans and investments in debt papers, the central bank added.
Easing liquidity growth came after the BSP fired off a 25 basis point (bp) increase in policy rates at its Nov. 15 meeting, which followed back-to-back rate increases worth 50 bp each in August and September to rein in inflation expectations as consumer prices rose the fastest in nearly a decade.
Some market players have said that money supply had been “tight” late last year, as global and local yields have been on the rise.
Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila, said the latest liquidity data boost chances of a cut in banks’ required reserves.
“In line with this development and given that inflation slowed in December 2018 and is now forecasted to slide back within target as early as 1Q 2019, the probability that the BSP unloads its much-anticipated 2019 reserve requirement ratio cut by 1Q has increased…” Mr. Mapa said, referring to BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr.’s plan to eventually bring minimum reserves down to single-digit levels from 18% currently.
A one percentage point cut in bank reserves unlocks roughly P100 billion in cash which banks can deploy for loans and investments.
LOAN GROWTH SOFTENS
Credit extended by banks increased by the slowest rate in over two years given slowdown in both business and consumer segments, the central bank said.
Outstanding loans grew by 16.8% in November, slipping from October’s 18.1% climb and marking the mildest hike since April 2016. Month on month, loans rose by 0.3%.
Computed to include reverse repurchase agreements, bank lending growth eased to 15.4% from 17.9%.
Loans for production continued to account for the bulk of credit, up 17.2% in November from 18.7% the preceding month. Loans for construction posted the biggest rise at 38.1%, followed by financial and insurance activities (29.4%); wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (19.7%); manufacturing (16%); and real estate (12.5%), among other sectors, the BSP reported.
Consumer loan growth decelerated to 13.8% from October’s 14.6%. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

What could go wrong in 2019? Eurasia Group outlines the risks

HONG KONG — The global geopolitical environment is at its most dangerous in decades, according to Eurasia Group, the consultancy founded by Ian Bremmer.
Here is a look at Eurasia’s top predictions for risks that could impact the world in 2019.
BAD SEEDS
Global decision-makers are so consumed with addressing — or failing to address — the daily crises that arise from a world without leadership that they’re allowing a broad array of future risks to germinate, with serious consequences. The outlook for institutions like the European Union (EU) and the World Trade Organization, as well as the US-China relationship and that between Russia and its neighbors, is negative.
US-CHINA RIVALRY
There’s been a long-held view in Washington and Beijing that the best way to manage their rivalry was to try to keep the relationship as amicable as possible, for as long as possible. That’s changed, especially in the United States, which is embracing an openly confrontational approach under President Donald Trump amid a months-long trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Expect more discord in the arenas of technology, economics and security.
CYBER GLOVES OFF
This year is likely to be a turning point in cyber competition. For the first time, the United States will be undertaking a serious effort to establish real deterrence by projecting its cyber power in much more assertive ways. This show of strength is not only unlikely to create an effective system of global deterrence, but it could well backfire.
EUROPEAN POPULISM
When the EU holds parliamentary elections in May, euro-skeptics from both the left and right will win more seats that ever before. In the past, fringe parties gained support by blaming Brussels for domestic problems. Now they’re winning by promising to ignore EU rules. The unprecedented influence of these new parties will undermine Europe’s ability to function.
US HOME FRONT
This will be a chaotic year for US domestic politics. While the odds of Mr. Trump being impeached and removed from office remain low, political volatility will be exceptionally high.
INNOVATION’S WINTER
Eurasia predicts a reduction in the financial and human capital available to drive technological development. It blames three factors: security concerns leading states to reduce their exposure to foreign suppliers; privacy concerns causing governments to more tightly regulate how their citizens’ data can be used; and economic concerns leading countries to put up barriers protecting their emerging tech champions.
COALITION OF THE UNWILLING
Mr. Trump’s election was a blow to the decades-long commitment by Washington to protect a US-led global order. Since then, Mr. Trump has collected some fellow travelers — a coalition of world leaders unwilling to uphold the those principles, with some even bent on bringing the system down. These leaders will have an increasingly disruptive effect on the international order.
MEXICO
The country’s new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), begins his term with a degree of power and control over the political system not seen in Mexico since the early 1990s. For AMLO, making Mexico great again means taking it back to the 1960s and 1970s — with more spending, more interventionist and lower quality policies. Until now, Mexico had been in a different political and economic cycle than the rest of Latin America, with a lower category of political risk. This year, it will look much more like its southern neighbors.
UKRAINE
President Vladimir Putin sees Ukraine as vital to Russia’s sphere of influence. Their shared historic, political and cultural links have undergirded Russia’s actions since long before the Ukraine’s 2013-2014 Maidan revolution. Mr. Putin believes Russia should have a big say in Kiev’s future. But that will pose a problem in the March presidential elections and ensuing parliamentary ballot, in which Russian interference — whether to support or undermine particular candidates — is a certainty.
NIGERIA
Nigeria faces its most fiercely contested election since the country’s transition to democracy in 1999. One candidate is President Muhammadu Buhari, an elderly and infirm leader who lacks the energy, creativity, or political savvy to significantly move the needle on Nigeria’s most intractable problems. The other is former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, long dogged by allegations of corruption, which he’s denied.
BREXIT
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has almost no chance of passing her unpopular withdrawal agreement when she puts it to a vote later this month. That promises a very messy 2019 in Europe. For Eurasia Group, Brexit was an asterisk because three years after the vote, almost any Brexit outcome remains possible. — Bloomberg

Aboitiz unit hopes to start operating two airports by end-2019

THE infrastructure unit of Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (AEV) hopes to start operating two regional airports by the end of 2019, including the P42.7-billion Laguindingan Airport in Misamis Oriental.
Aboitiz InfraCapital, Inc. (AIC) said in a statement on Tuesday that it has clarified some of the Department of Transportation (DoTr)’s questions on its original unsolicited proposal for the upgrade, operations, maintenance, and expansion of the Laguindingan Airport last December.
“It is not a revised offer but a response to DoTr’s requests [for additional info],” AIC Chief Operating Officer Cosette V. Canilao was quoted as saying in a statement.
The company also said it has identified engineering firm Arup as consultant for the technical studies and master plan for the Laguindingan proposal. Arup has experience in designing international airports, including Terminal 5 at John F. Kennedy Airport in New York and the Beijing Capital International Airport Terminal 3.
AIC is also upbeat on its proposal for upgrade, operations, maintenance, and expansion of the Bohol-Panglao International Airport. The company was granted original proponent status (OPS) for the project last September.
After getting OPS, the proposal will now go through the National Economic Development Authority for evaluation. It will then be subjected to a Swiss challenge where other firms submit competing bids that the original proponent AIC will have the right to match.
“We are hopeful that the government will allow us to operate these two regional gateways this year,” said Ms. Canilao, who was the head of the government’s Public-Private Partnership Center for five years until March 2016.
Both airports are part of AIC’s bundled proposal worth P148 billion in April last year to modernize four regional airports, the other two being the Iloilo International Airport and Bacolod-Silay Airport. The company envisioned to transform the facilities into world-class airports that “every Filipino deserves and can be proud of.”
The bundled proposal, however, was rejected, as the DoTr favored the submission of separate proposals for each project. The Aboitiz-led firm’s bullish stance on regional airport projects is in line with the government’s infrastructure program, as well as its decision to align its priority projects with that of the requirements of the country, namely water and transport projects.
AIC is also part of the group of seven conglomerates forming the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) consortium, which proposed to rehabilitate, operate, and expand the country’s premier gateway.
The consortium was granted OPS by the Manila International Airport Authority last September.
“We are hopeful that the government will grant the consortium the notice to proceed this 2019 so that we can commence the expansion of NAIA to accommodate 65 million passengers per year,” NAIA Consortium Spokesperson Jose Emmanuel P. Reverente earlier said in a statement. — Arra B. Francia

PAL eyes deal with strategic investor within 1st half

By Arra B. Francia, Reporter
PHILIPPINE Airlines, Inc. (PAL) looks to complete a deal with a strategic investor within the first half of the year, which could help boost its operations as the flag carrier adds new routes to both Asian and North American destinations.
PAL President and Chief Operating Officer Jaime J. Bautista said the airline is hopeful the deal will be closed soon, without disclosing further details on how the investor will enter the firm.
“We’re targeting first half of this year… Up to 40% stake, that’s the maximum that we can offer. As per the law, foreigners can own only up to 40%,” Mr. Bautista told reporters after a press conference announcing the airline’s new routes in Manila on Tuesday.
PAL unveiled on Tuesday new non-stop routes from Manila to Hanoi in Vietnam, Phnom Penh in Cambodia, and New Delhi in India within the first half of the year, in a bid to increase its passenger volume to 19 million in 2019. This is about 12% higher than the 17 million passengers the airline said it ferried in 2018.
The direct flight to Hanoi will start on March 31, operating four times weekly using the 156-seater Airbus A320.
The route between Manila and Phnom Penh will commence on April 1, utilizing the Airbus 321 Classic five times a week with a capacity of up to 199 seats.
PAL will also revive its direct flights to New Delhi, India, after the route was canceled in 2011 due to the small market at the time. The company is still talking with Indian authorities regarding its final slot and operational clearances, but targets to begin the service by April.
Manila-New Delhi flights will use the 168-seater Airbus A321neo, offering full-flat business class seats with Wi-Fi connectivity.
“Our goal is to strengthen PAL’s network and establish the Philippines as a true gateway hub to Southeast Asia and South Asia for the North American market,” Mr. Bautista said during the press conference for the new routes.
Mr. Bautista said the Philippines’ strategic location between the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent makes it the logical gateway for Americans and Canadians who want to visit India and other Asian capitals.
PAL is planning to launch two more new routes from secondary hubs such as Clark and Cebu to Northeast Asian destinations. At the same time, the company is also ramping up flights to several destinations, including routes from Cebu to Nagoya that will now service daily flights instead of four times a week.
Nonstop flights from Manila to Osaka will now increase to 11 from seven; and Manila to Bangkok will have 25 from 21 flights.
There will be now 11 weekly flights from Manila to Kuala Lumpur, from seven flights at present. Manila to Jakarta flights will increase to 10 a week from seven, while Manila to Los Angeles will now have 17 weekly flights from 14. With the expanded flight frequencies, PAL said it will now have 31 weekly flights to California alone, and daily flights to New York and Toronto.
PAL’s Manila-New York nonstop flight is the longest commercial route operated by any airline to New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport.
To support the increased number of flights, PAL expects to receive six more aircraft within the year, including two Airbus 350s, two Airbus A321neos, and two next generation Q400 Turboprops.
Mr. Bautista said they are also working with the Israeli government to launch a direct flight to the country.

Toyota Motor PHL orders recall of 31 Lexus LS 500 units

TOYOTA Motor Philippines Corp. (TMP) said Lexus Manila, Inc., one of its local dealers, ordered a recall of certain units of LS 500 models due to an improper programming of their start-stop systems.
In a letter to the Department of Trade and Industry’s (DTI) Consumer Protection Group Undersecretary Ruth B. Castelo, TMP First Vice-President Lawyer Rommel R. Gutierrez said some 31 units of the luxury sedan produced from Dec. 19, 2017 to June 28, 2018 will be reprogrammed.
The LS 500, which was introduced into the Philippine market in August 2017, cost as much as P9.268 million.
The vehicle is equipped with a 3.5-liter V6 twin-turbo engine and a start-stop system that automatically stops and restarts the system when the vehicle is stationary so as to cut fuel use and emissions.
“Due to improper programming of the engine control computer, there is a possibility that when the engine restarts within a specific time range after the engine stops, an incorrect intake air volume could be calculated, potentially causing the engine to stall during acceleration from the stationary position,” Mr. Gutierrez said in the letter posted on the DTI’s website.
The re-programming will be done at no cost to affected customers.
TMP said it will notify customers through a letter to invite them to bring the subject units to the company’s Lexus dealer based in Taguig City for the service. — JCL

Where is art headed in 2019?

BUSINESSWORLD asked some of the country’s artists, and art champions about their outlook for Philippine culture and arts for this year (and beyond). The answers were as varied as their practices.
“I look forward that we continue to grow and become diverse and to focus more on our cultural identity and how to cultivate its content and history. We should not only focus on form and physical beauty of an artwork and its commercial value.” — Jojo Austria, a visual artist based in the USA
“The direction of art is more collective, collaborative, and communal. This direction is more sustainable, developmental, and progressive.” — Renato Habulan, artist, curator, and educator
“Naniniwala ako na ang artist ay mayroong malaking responsibilidad sa kanyang kapaligiran, maging ito ay sa politikal, ekonomiya o mga social problems. Bukod sa pagbibigay ng aliw, gaya ng isang pinta o disenyo ng mga bagay at inspirasyon, ang mga artists ay dapat maging kritikal at sensitibo sa bawat bagay at malasakit upang buhayin ang diwa ng mamayan para sa pagsusulong ng bawat bansa sa pamamagitan ng sining. Bagamat sa panahon ngayon ng kalakaran sa art scene sa Pilipinas nakikita natin na maganda ang responde ng mga kolektor maging ang appreciation [nang] mga tao sa mga art exhibit, lalo na sa mga art fairs, malaki man o maliit, pero sana wag laging itrato na ang art ay for investment. Ang 2019 ay napakahalagang taon upang tayo ay magbuklod magkaisa at magtulungan upang baguhin ang sistema sa pamamagitan ng pagpapahayag ng ating saloobin lalo na sa politika at pagpapahalaga sa likas yaman ng bansa. (I believe that the artist has a big responsibility to his surroundings, be it political, economic, or social problems. Aside from giving comfort, like a painting or design of an object, and inspiration, artists should be critical and sensitive to each thing and be compassionate in order to raise the spirit of the people for the promotion of every country through art. Although today’s trend in the Philippine art scene we can see that the collectors respond well and even appreciation [of] people in art exhibits, especially in art fairs, big or small, but hopefully they will not always treat art as for investment. 2019 is a very important year for us to unite and work together to change the system by expressing our attitude especially in politics and appreciation of the country’s natural resources.)” — Thomas Daquioag, artist and art educator
“Philippine Art will evolve and expand all over the world no matter what the political situation is. Actually, it has been [at] a time of great repression that the artist has worked freely without having to think of the commercial benefit as an allure. We have particularly gone all over Southeast Asia and some artists even venture in Europe, America and Australia. Our artists have been asked to exhibit in Biennales and other major exhibitions. At present, the Internet plays such a huge part in the exchange of dialogue and the dissemination of information and with that, I believe that Philippine Art will progress in the years to come.” — Silvana Diaz, art enthusiast, collector, and gallery owner
“[Tanghalang Pilipino] will forever be committed to doing Theater, in the form of productions and training programs, that highlight the immense artistry, historical and contemporary sociocultural and educational value of the diverse Philippine Theater genres, even as we continue to acknowledge the timeless value of world theater arts… TP is not digressing from its original vision-mission of using theater as an instrument for developing a humanistic Philippine arts and culture program by proudly promoting the artistic excellence of our Filipino artists-playwrights, directors, actors, designer, musicians, dancers; using theater for cultural education and promoting the richness of our cultural heritage and therefore enhancing our sense of national identity; promoting the viability of theater as a creative industry; and promoting theater arts as a cultural form that has a universal humanistic value.” — Fernando “Tata Nanding” Josef, Tanghalang Pilipino artistic director
“For 2019, we are expecting an avalanche of creative expressions from the seven fields of art. In theater, there will be the newbie one-time producer, indie groups, school-based, to the tried and tested companies with many decades of experiences all vying for an audience for their own brand of genre which would supposedly transpose into sales. Revenues generated by various theater groups are not made available to the general public — that is why no one really knows if they a profit or simply lose [money] and vanish. Be it a straight play or a musical aimed for children and adults, there is an array of choices for the picking — but this will really all boil down with a theater buff’s pocket if it can hold till the next paycheck and the next and the next. In a month, like come February, there is an expected 10-12 productions that will open. Economics will rationalize one’s decision if he could and can opt to spend his extra pesos on a theater treat. But for how many can it translate to affordability if more equally exciting shows are due to be unveiled in March, April, and up until December?”
“Theater has to survive. With funds, of course. The art of selling a specific production always pose as a challenge for the marketing and sales team… It’s a dog-eat-dog world out there because financial resources are simply fewer in terms of corporate support. It’s the least of their priorities. The unnamed philanthropists will or should come in and help the industry to keep going…”
“In dance, with it’s very restricted audience, the challenges are even much harder to cope [with] relative to budget. Productions have been cut — from the usual average of six and reduced to three at the very least.”
“For the visual arts community, the scope is much larger… because of the various modes of expression each artist churns [out] for their buyer or a collector… Over the past decade, many new artists came to fore and a new generation of buyers also made the scenario buzz as to who would be the best to invest their money with [an eye to] future payback. That’s commercialism vs. art.”
“In film, there is a renaissance of more thought-out and well-crafted genres that either spell millions in ticket sales or the other side of the pendulum.”
“For sociopolitical reasons in the seven fields of art — specially with this year’s elections — there will be bolder, [more] up front, in-your-face satires, parodies, or socio-realism that will bring added color to the norm. Expect this to happen from the artists who painstakingly translate their ideals into their work of art: theater, dance, song or poetry, literature, visual or sculpture, film or photography. Philippine arts and culture this year is going to be so alive, noisy, empowering, and conscious of the specific market they shall serve. And here’s hoping that corporations can extend at least financial support to the artists whose love, passion and dedication is unquestionably the best. Yes, it’s going to be an entertainment, but it will spell relevance.” — Joselito “Toots” Tolentino, art enthusiast and publicist
“Maki-Improv, Huwag Matakot! is just a small and young group, and we are not yet that influential in the scene, so I don’t know if we can talk on behalf of the improv community. But Maki is committed to creating art that is fun but at the same time has politically charged commentary. Many artists right now are becoming more political, and that has always been the role of artists. It is a very important role, especially with the upcoming elections. When we speak our truth, we will inevitably encourage others to voice out theirs, and that chorus of voices can become a game changer, [especially] in the [upcoming] elections. At the Manila Improv Festival on March 27 to 31, Maki is one of the many improv groups from all over the world who will perform at the PETA Theater Center. Our show’s theme is ‘elections.’…. We hope our show sparks discussion, and we hope that it will inspire people to go out and vote.” — Jasmine Cruz, president and co-founder of Maki-Improv

Honestbee provides injury policy for workers

HONESTBEE, an online concierge and delivery service provider, said it now provides personal injury insurance coverage for its employees while they are fulfilling or delivering orders.
In a statement, Honestbee said its has enrolled thousands of its shoppers and delivery personnel in a group personal injury policy.
“The policy covers a range of situations while on the job, such as medical expenses, hospitalization, temporary incapacity, permanent disablement and even death. The policy is effective immediately,” the company said.
The Singapore-based company said the policy is being implemented in the 16 cities in eight countries where it operates, namely the Philippines, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Hong Kong. In the Philippines, Honestbee is available in Metro Manila and some parts of Cebu.
Crystal Gonzalez, managing director of Honestbee Philippines, said the company believes in providing safety and security to its employees.
“We currently have hundreds out on the field who continue to work hard in giving convenience and high quality service for our customers,” she was quoted as saying in a statement.
In Asia, Honestbee works with 10,900 stores and restaurants. It has been operating in Philippines since 2017, partnering with small and medium-sized restaurants, supermarkets, and businesses such as Robinsons Supermarket, Robinsons Selections, and Ministop.
Customers can shop for groceries or order food from restaurants on the Honestbee app or website, and have it delivered.

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