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Yields on gov’t debt drop

By Mark T. Amoguis
Researcher
YIELDS on government securities (GS) went down last week after the release of steady October inflation as well as slower third-quarter economic growth data, which may prompt the central bank to moderate its policy tightening at its meeting this week.
Debt yields, which move opposite to prices, dipped by a week-on-week average of 12.5 basis points (bps), according to the PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates as of Nov. 9 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s Web site.
Carlyn Therese X. Dulay, first vice-president and head of Institutional Sales at Security Bank Corp., said last week’s yield movement followed the release of the October inflation print and the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figure.
“This emboldened market participants and end clients onshore and offshore to take positions,” she said.
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank of the Philippines, agreed: “This week-on-week decline may have seen more stable factors such as the positive sentiment that inflation may have already peaked. Another possible driver is the still respectable, but slower, Q3 GDP growth result.”
He added that other external factors that may have influenced yields last week such as the US midterm elections and the continuing saga of the trade war between the US and China.
For his part, Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank NV-Manila Branch, said: “Risk sentiment for bonds and currencies has improved considerably in November with global developments relatively positive.”
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported last Tuesday that the increase of prices of widely used goods steadied in October amid high food, transport, and utilities costs.
October inflation printed at 6.7%, steady from September and picking up from 3.1% a year ago.
It matched the median of BusinessWorld’s poll of 15 economists and fell within the 6.2-7% forecast range given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, but was faster than the 6.5% estimate of the Department of Finance.
The latest reading brought year-to-date inflation to 5.1%, beyond the BSP’s 2-4% target albeit below the 2018 forecast of 5.2%.
In a separate report last Thursday, the PSA said the economy grew at its slowest pace in three years during the July-September quarter due to dampened household spending brought about by high inflation as well as the agriculture sector’s decline.
GDP grew by 6.1% annually in the third quarter, slower than the 6.2% in the April-June period and the 7.2% posted in the third quarter last year.
This was slower than the 6.3% median estimate in the BusinessWorld’s poll of 15 analysts and the slowest pace since the 6% recorded in the second quarter of 2015.
Economic growth averaged 6.3% in the first nine months, below the government’s revised 6.5-6.9% target range for the year.
GS yields declined across all tenors, except for 91- and 182-day debt, which went up by 7.4 bps and 3.3 bps, respectively, fetching BVAL rates of 5.172% and 5.948% at the close of the market last Friday.
The largest decline was recorded in the seven-year note, which went down by 29.5 bps to 7.553%. It was followed by five-, four-, 10-, 20-, and three-year bonds, which fell by 28.5 bps, 21.6 bps, 20.0 bps, 19.7 bps, and 12.5 bps, respectively, yielding 7.274%, 7.133%, 7.814%, 8.142%, and 6.979%.
Yields on 25-, two-, and one-year notes also declined by 7.5 bps, 4.9 bps, and 4.2 bps, respectively, to 8.37%, 6.77%, and 6.522%.
For this week’s trading, ING’s Mr. Mapa said: “Market will be looking to the BSP meeting for direction.”
Security Bank’s Ms. Dulay expects GS yields’ levels “to stay rangebound until there is clearer direction from the MB (Monetary Board) meeting.”
The policymaking body of the central bank, the Monetary Board (MB), is scheduled to hold its review on Nov. 15, Thursday.
In late October, BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. hinted on a “moderate” policy tightening for this meeting.
Meanwhile, MB Member Felipe M. Medalla has said monetary authorities may “take a pause” should latest month-on-month inflation show signs of easing.
Since May, MB has implemented rate hikes worth 150 bps, bringing the benchmark rates to 4-5% range, to temper rising inflation.

Tilapia markets underdeveloped despite strong Philippine production — BFAR

THE Bureau of Fisheries and Agricultural Resources (BFAR) said that the Philippines has to develop markets for tilapia, a widely-cultivated fish, amid a consumer preference for galunggong, or round scad.
Speaking to reporters, BFAR National Director Eduardo B. Gongona said, “Tilapia growing is well-developed. What we have to develop is the market.”
Mr. Gongona said that among widely-available protein sources the clear leader is galunggong, while many other countries also produce tilapia, which means the export market will be tough to penetrate.
“Producers want to produce more, but the problem is markets. We need to export. There is a lot of competition. The US would rather import from South America because the costs are low, but our tilapia is better-tasting,” Mr. Gongona said.
Mr. Gongona also noted that Philippine is also smaller.
“The genetics should be improved because what we have now is table tilapia. It should be bigger so it could be suitable for value-added activities,” Mr. Gongona said, noting that bigger fish make for a better filleted product.
In an email, the Acting Executive Director of the Department of Science and Technology’s Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST — PCAARRD), Reynaldo V. Ebora, said that the Philippines has quality tilapia strains such as the Freshwater Aquaculture Selected Tilapia (FAST), Genetically Improved Farmed Tilapia (GIFT) and Genetically Enhanced Tilapia.
“To have export-quality tilapia and compete in the international markets, there is no need to change the existing tilapia strains in the country,” Mr. Ebora said.
“Genetic improvement is just one facet in the development of the tilapia aquaculture industry. There is also a need to reduce mortality due to parasites and diseases and provide nutritious and affordable feeds. Increasing the profitability of tilapia farming can be achieved only with improved hatchery techniques, promotion of nursery systems to produce post-fingerlings for stocking, and a more efficient farming system,” Mr. Ebora said.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the Philippine aquaculture industry produced 18,401.64 metric tons (MT) of tilapia in 2017.
Mr. Gongona also said there is a need for more production of male tilapia as the male grows more rapidly, cutting time to market.
In a presentation by Mr. Ebora during the Science Policy and Information Forum 2018: Caring for our Galunggong and Tilapia Fisheries for Food Security, he said that PCAARRD employs phytoandrogens from pine pollen, an environment-friendly natural product used to change functional female tilapia into functional males.
“Increased tilapia production from aquaculture is possible if information on advances in husbandry, genetics, systems, water, nutrition and health management, harvest and post-production are effectively disseminated and adopted by farmers,” Mr. Ebora said.
Mr. Ebora said that PCAARRD started distributing to farmers an updated compilation of latest technologies in the breeding and farming of tilapia. — Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio

Product Review: Kiehl’s Ginger and Hibiscus Firming Mask

GOING ONLINE isn’t the only big news to have come from Kiehl’s as the brand launched last month its newest product meant to beef up its mask line — the Ginger and Hibiscus Firming Mask.
“We currently have a hydrating mask, one for radiance, and if you think about it, it’s only right that we also try to complete the different benefits we can offer through masks,” Joan Hwang, Kiehl’s Philippines product manager, told BusinessWorld during a media preview in October at Okada Manila, Pasay City.
She described facial masks as the “new frontier” now that people are more knowledgeable about skincare and know how to use serums and moisturizers in their routines.
“It could also be because of Korean beauty trends — it became popular that’s why Kiehl’s has to come up with our solution,” she said.
Korean beauty companies commonly promote a frequent masking routine — sometimes, even every day — to ensure healthy, glowing skin.
The Ginger and Hibiscus mask is also the brand’s first sleeping mask and is priced at P3,350 for 100ml.
(Sleeping masks are masks used at the end of a nighttime routine and are only washed off upon waking up.)
The product, which is light mauve in color, has a balm-like texture and is said to “help smoothen and firm skin with hibiscus seed extract and sustainably sourced ginger leaf,” according to the product description on the BeautyMNL site.
The product is also said to make the person wake up to skin that “feels and looks smoother.”
The company said it can be used every day for five days, and you bet that’s what this reporter did when she got a sample from the launch.
For almost a month, I used the mask religiously (you only need a small dollop to cover the entire face) and observed on the first few days that I did get minor breakouts around the chin area but chalked it up to my skin adjusting to a new product in a my extensive routine (I have a seven-step routine that involves two serums and two moisturizers because I have very dry skin).
And then I remembered Ms. Hwang recommended using the mask as a substitute for moisturizer and I cringed because I couldn’t do without a moisturizer — but I removed one of my moisturizers and a serum from my routine and after another week, the breakouts calmed down and I could feel that my skin was a bit firmer and moisturized.
So I took it a notch higher and further simplified my routine to only Kiehl’s products for an entire week — the Calendula Deep Cleansing Foaming Wash (P1,725 for 230ml), Calendula Herbal Extract Alcohol-Free Toner (P2,425 for 250ml), Creamy Eye Treatment with Avocado (P1,725 for 14g), Midnight Recovery Concentrate (P2,825 for 30ml), and, finally, the Ginger mask, in that order.
Was I going too far? Yes, but I like to call it commitment.
And I could say that the combination worked better for me when I used the mask with the brand’s other products — my skin wasn’t dry and there were no breakouts.
Do note that it is important to let all the products you put on your face time to sink in — a minute or two per product is okay — especially when using the mask after the Midnight Recovery Concentrate because in my experience, when put on too early, the mask doesn’t apply well and flakes into little balls, which really isn’t a good look.
The question now is, will I revamp my routine for this mask? No, but I will concede that I will probably do this on weekends to rejuvenate my often tired skin, because if we can’t remove stress from our lives, at least our skin can give the world (and ourselves) the illusion that we are living our best lives. — Zsarlene B. Chua

ABS-CBN’s DTT service now available in Batangas

ABS-CBN Corp. said it has expanded the coverage of its digital terrestrial television (DTT) service to include Batangas.
“Batangas is the 16th signal coverage area of ABS-CBN TVplus, accelerating further the network’s mission to lead the country’s migration from analog to digital before the government mandated deadline for all broadcasting companies to switch to digital broadcast by 2023,” the Lopez-led media giant said in a statement over the weekend.
The country is undergoing a shift to digital television by 2023. The government plans to switch off the analog system under its Digital Terrestrial Television Broadcasting Migration Plan that started last year.
ABS-CBN said it has already sold 6.2 million units of ABS-CBN TVplus since it was launched in 2015. In Manila, the company said 71.6% of non-cabled households have already moved to adopt the DTT product as of August this year from 55% in the same month last year based on an establishment survey from Kantar Media.
It also said DTT penetration in Mega Manila has reached 64.7% of non-cabled households as of August from only 44% last year, and 57% of households in the suburbs this year from only 33% last year.
“ABS-CBN TVplus continuously expands its signal coverage areas that also include Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Rizal, Laguna, Pampanga, Tarlac, Benguet, Cavite, Metro Cebu, Cagayan De Oro, Iloilo, Bacolod, and Davao,” it added.
GMA Network, Inc. also revealed its plans earlier this year to come up with its own DTT product that would convert analog television to digital. The listed firm said it is investing P700 million for the project and is tapping a manufacturer in China for the device. — Denise A. Valdez

Carolina Herrra’s CH handbags launched

FOR THE 35th anniversary of Carolina Herrera, it’s taking the founder’s initials seriously in a campaign called the “Insignia.”
The campaign includes an exhibit shown at the Maybank Performing Arts Theater at BGC during a launch late last month. The exhibit featured celebrities from different fields, such as actresses Heart Evangelista and Lovie Poe, chefs Josh Boutwood and Bruce Ricketts, to designers Kenneth Cobonpue and Ken Samudio.
It also served to launch Carolina Herrera’s line of new handbags, all featuring Ms. Herrera’s CH initials. The bags include the casual insignia bag, the top-handled Victoria bag (the initials are embossed on the leather), and beaded clutches with the clasp displaying the initials. Jewelry in the shape of CH, including bracelets, rings, and earrings, were also shown during the event.
In the Philippines, CH Carolina Herrera is located in Greenbelt 5. According to Obee Ham, Business Development Head for the Trimark group (which brought the brand to the country), “We’re the number one in Asia now,” speaking about the location’s performance a year after opening. — JLG

Ipsos continues expanding in PHL

GLOBAL market research agency Ipsos is focusing on developing talents in emerging markets like the Philippines, as it continues to strengthen its presence in Southeast Asia.
The Paris-based firm announced last week that it has opened its second office in the country at the Bendel Center in Mandaluyong City, alongside the relocation of its main office to Rockwell Business Center Sheridan, Sheridan corner United Streets in Mandaluyong as well.
“This is a milestone for Ipsos in the Philippines. We always strive to deliver excellent service to our clients and to be more efficient in our operations. This expansion will positively impact us in our quest to better understand people, society, and markets,” Ipsos Philippines Managing Director Marie Lee said in a statement.
The company’s services include marketing research, client and employee relationship management, media and advertising research, and opinion and social research, among others.
The establishment of the new offices forms part of the company’s commitment to grow its network worldwide. The company has recently acquired four global divisions of American research firm GfK Custom Research Business, with a footprint in 26 countries including Australia, China, India, Japan, and Singapore.
Ipsos has also negotiated with mystery shopper firm Market Pulse International to acquire its staff, clients, and shopper panelists in Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand.
“Our key priority for the Southeast Asia Market is talent mentorship and development, coupled with laser sharp client focus, and providing innovative solutions,” Ipsos Southeast Asia Chief Executive Officer Suresh Ramalingan said in a statement.
Ipsos has been in the Philippines since 2011. The company also has offices in Cebu and Davao aside from its Manila operations. — Arra B. Francia

Peso seen weakening vs dollar

THE PESO could weaken and go back to the P53-per-dollar level this week as market players expect strong economic data in the United States, although eyes are also on the local central bank’s rate decision due on Thursday.
The local unit closed at P52.96 on Friday, 39 centavos weaker than the P52.57 finish the previous day which was a five-month high. Week on week, the local unit appreciated coming from a P53.535-per-dollar rate logged last Oct. 31 but ended a five-day rally.
Traders sought for comment said the peso could depreciate further in response to a stronger dollar.
A bond trader said the currency will likely see a “correction” following the sudden and substantial drop, and in the absence of big-ticket inflows logged early last week.
She added that players will be watching out for the interest rate decision of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) during their seventh policy meeting later this week.
Eleven analysts tapped for a BusinessWorld poll were split, with six saying that policy makers will hold fire on interest rates this week, while five expect a 25-basis-point (bp) tightening move.
The central bank has raised rates in four consecutive meetings since May worth a total of 150 bps. The key policy rate now stands at 4.5%, the highest since 2009.
Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan, market economist at Land Bank of the Philippines, pointed out that external developments will also shape peso-dollar trading this week.
“The dollar is expected to appreciate this week, supported by likely upbeat US economic data and hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials. The greenback’s recovery might be capped by similar hawkish moves or hints from the BSP,” Mr. Dumalagan said.
Due this week are US data on consumer sentiment and inflation, as well as third-quarter economic growth data from Japan.
During their policy meeting last week, the Fed affirmed that the US economy remains on solid footing. Investors took it as a hawkish stance which bolstered the chances for another 25bp rate hike before the year ends.
The first trader expects the peso to trade within P52.80 to P53.50 this week, while Mr. Dumalagan gave a P52.70-P53.30 range. — Melissa Luz T. Lopez

USDA forecasts 10% rise in food exports to PHL

THE United States is projecting a 10% increase in foodexports to the Philippines to $2.83 billion in 2018.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), consumer-oriented food and beverage products including wine are viewed as having the strongest prospects for future export growth driven by consumer confidence in the quality of US goods.
USDA said that the Philippines has been the largest market for US wines in Southeast Asia by volume since 2009. It forecast US wine exports to the Philippines of 4.3 million liters this year, up 10.3%.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila held promotional events in Makati to increase awareness of the availability, variety and quality of US fine foods and wines.
USDA noted that the Philippines has a strong and growing consumer base, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has surpassed $3,000, while 20% of the population earns an average annual income of $12,510.
The USDA noted high levels of awareness and preference for US food and beverage, growing demand for healthy, organic, gourmet and convenience foods, as well as steady growth in the retail, food service and processing industries in the Philippines.
According to USDA, consumption growth in the coming years will be driven by a robust economy, and a young, fast-growing and highly urbanized population with increasingly sophisticated preferences, as well as growing access to modern supermarkets. — Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio

Davide to speak on farmer-scientist training program

NATIONAL SCIENTIST Romulo G. Davide will be the guest speaker at a scientific conference, “Couldn’t AGRI More: Harvesting S&T Knowledge” on Nov. 23 at the University of the Philippines Open University (UPOU) in Los Baños, Laguna.
“We are honored to have Dr. Davide in this scientific conference where he will talk about the Farmer-Scientist Training Program or FSTP, an initiative that he carried out since 1994 to help farmers gain productive and sustainable yield,” said Alnard Pagulayan, class coordinator or DEVC 263 Class (Scientific and Technical Communication), which is organizing the event in partnership with San Miguel Corp.
The conference will have 20 slots open to the public.
Mr. Davide, a Ramon Magsaysay awardee in 2012, was named “Outstanding Agricultural Scientist” in 1994. He used his award money to launch the FSTP in his hometown of Colawin, Argao, Cebu.
Mr. Davide is the brother of former Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. — Mindanao News Bureau

PSEi may rise on bullish growth, earnings outlook

By Arra B. Francia
Reporter
SHARES MAY move upward in the week ahead as sentiment improves in anticipation of better economic growth figures and earnings results in the last quarter of 2018.
The 30-member Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dropped 0.95% or 66.89 points to close at 6,968.82 on Friday, pulling the main index 2.4% or 171 points lower on a weekly basis. The services and mining and oil counter declined the most, slipping 5.4% and 4.7%, respectively.
Turnover for the week reached P90.17 billion, with a foreign net buying position of P30.78 billion, as foreigners flocked the P39-billion follow-on offering of San Miguel Food and Beverage, Inc.
Eagle Equities, Inc. Research Head Christopher John Mangun said analysts are optimistic that economic data will improve in the coming months, despite the slower gross domestic product (GDP) figures seen in the third quarter at 6.1%. This is lower than the previous quarter’s revised 6.2%.
He noted that inflation seems to have plateaued, oil prices are dropping, while the peso is now getting stronger.
“Coinciding with the index being at a strong support level, there is a strong possibility that investors will start getting back into this market and begin picking up issues that have been heavily battered this year,” Mr. Mangun said in a weekly market report.
Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com explained the same, saying in a market note that while the view might still be hazy, at least the peso has started to strengthen and crude futures have been on a downtrend.
“Markets should eventually let demand and supply work over time,” 2TradeAsia.com said.
Meanwhile, the online brokerage noted that measuring 29 stocks that have reported their nine-month earnings reports, the year-on-year weighted growth is now at 2.9% for the first nine months of the year, and 4.3% for the third quarter alone. This is better than the first half’s 1.43% growth and 2.03% in the second quarter.
The 29 stocks measure account for 57% of the PSEi basket, and 42% to the all-shares index.
“Looking solely on conglomerates, expansion initiatives remain intact despite immediate challenges of higher interest rates. We hold the view of improved 4Q results, which will be aided mainly by hastened investment initiatives,” 2TradeAsia.com said.
The companies set to release their third-quarter performances for the week are LT Group, Inc., San Miguel Corp. and its subsidiaries, Ayala Corp., Alliance Global Group, Inc., GT Capital Holdings, Inc., and Puregold Price Club, Inc., among others.
Together, these firms contribute 14% to the PSEi and 19% to the all-shares index.
Mr. Mangun placed the main index’s resistance at 7,200 to 7,500, while support is at 6,800 to 7,000.

Tory Burch’s Rockwell branch biggest in PHL

TORY BURCH opened its fourth boutique in the Philippines in August, but was only officially launched late last month. The Rockwell branch is the biggest Tory Burch store in the country to date, surpassing its other locations in Greenbelt 5, Rustan’s Makati, and Rustan’s Shangri-La.
The brand was founded in 2004 by society figure Tory Burch and now has over 250 stores worldwide.
The store’s opening also coincided with the brand’s launch of its Fall/Winter 2018 collection. The collection includes a line called Happy Times, inspired by a memoir written by Lee Radziwill. Radziwill, the younger sister of the late US First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, was a shining society figure across continents during her sister’s tenure. She took on many careers, including actress, public relations personality, and even as an interior designer, which would explain the floral wallpaper-like prints of the collection, featured on scarves and dresses. A bag also named after Radziwill is also present in the collection, featuring a ladylike trapezoid shape reminiscent of the socialite’s own bags. — JLG

ISM Communications Corp.

INVESTORS loaded up on Dennis A. Uy-led ISM Communications Corp. last week after the consortium formed by China Telecommunications Corp. and Mr. Uy’s companies Udenna Corp. and Chelsea Logistics Holding Corp. was named as provisional winner in the government’s search for the country’s third major telecommunications service provider.
ISM was the most actively traded stock last week after it logged in P3.985 billion worth of 693.36 million shares on Nov. 5-9, based on data from the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE).
Shares of ISM jumped to P6.80 apiece last Friday, up by 112.5% from its closing price on Oct. 31 of P3.20 apiece. The stock is also up 382.27% year to date.
“Traders jumped on board ISM after Chelsea Logistics Holdings Corp. (CLC) disclosed before market open on November 7, 2018 [Wednesday] that it and its parent, Udenna Corp., partnered with China Telecommunications Corp. to formally bid as a consortium for the New Major Player in the Philippines’ telecommunications market,” said Fiorenzo D. De Jesus, research analyst at RCBC Securities, Inc.
ISM had been the top traded stock in terms of value turnover since then, from Wednesday until Friday last week.
“What added more to the large trading volume of ISM is the disqualification of [Sear Telecommunications consortium] and PT&T (Philippine Telegraph and Telephone Corp.) as well as the last minute decision of Now Corp. and [Converge ICT Solutions, Inc.] to back out. These fueled the stock price of ISM to rocket from [the] P2.30s to P7.88,” Timson Securities, Inc. equity trader Jervin de Celis said.
Since last year, President Rodrigo R. Duterte pushed for the selection of a third telco player to break the duopoly of PLDT, Inc. and Globe Telecom, Inc.
The consortium of China Telecom, Udenna and CLC, under the name of franchise holder Mindanao Islamic Telephone Company, Inc. (Mislatel), emerged as the provisional winner for the third slot as a Philippine telco provider in the bidding last Wednesday.
Disqualified bidders — PT&T and the consortium of Sear, TierOne Communications International, Inc. and LCS Group of Companies — have filed motions for reconsideration with the National Telecommunications Commission.
In August, Mr. Uy acquired 888.73 million unissued common shares of ISM at P1.45 apiece, equivalent to 45.13% of the company’s outstanding total stock. The acquisition was valued at P1.28 billion.
ISM has also disclosed last month that its board has approved the change in the company’s name to Udenna Holdings Corp. as well as an increase in the capital stock to P75 billion from P2.8 billion, making it Mr. Uy’s holding company via backdoor listing.
Meanwhile, telco incumbents Globe and PLDT saw their respective share prices go down by 17.32% and 12.23% on a week-on-week basis.
“PLDT and Globe have dropped sharply since Nov. 7 as investors price in this negative news for the duo since there’s a new market player that will challenge their dominance,” Mr. de Celis said.
When asked about the outlook, analysts were cautious about ISM’s growth prospects.
“I think traders will try to speculate on the price action of ISM’s stock price as they wait for the finalization of the backdoor listing. ISM will also have to bare their plans to challenge the dominance of Globe and PLDT and that may fuel the stock price to swing in the short run,” Mr. de Celis said.
“For the long term, the company will have to shell out a big amount of money to service consumers… but since this venture is capital intensive, ISM might incur more expenses in the first 5 to 10 years before we see them earn a decent amount of revenue,” he added.
Mr. de Celis sees ISM playing P7 in the resistance level while support at P5.80-6.00 levels for this week.
ISM posted a net income attributable to the parent of P991,862 in the third quarter of 2018, after posting no attributable profit in the same period a year ago. Year-to-date, ISM’s net loss attributable to the parent was P13.05 million compared to nothing in last year’s comparable nine months.
In the nine months to September, its net loss after taxes stood at P26.7 million versus last year’s P54.37 million net loss. Gross revenues reached P180,000 so far this year. — Marissa Mae M. Ramos

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