THERE is always at least one person in your chat group that posts, often and lengthily, worst-case scenarios. As if the pandemic is not scary enough, the prophet of doom manages to trigger your worst nightmares. Using old data, fake news, and even prophecies of Nostradamus, his warnings are posted. The vaccine won’t be available until the next decade. There is a new strain of the virus that will make one or both of your eyeballs pop out into your sinigang soup. The mask you’re wearing has been manufactured to spread the virus.
And get this, you complacent optimist, even if you have no symptoms like coughing and loss of a sense of smell (though you can still sniff bull shit) you may already be contaminated and dying, but don’t know it yet. So, there.
Even with the admonition of legal luminaries in the group who lose their temper with Mr. Doom (where did you pick up that fake news again?), the latter is unrepentant in his crusade to make you lose sleep — do you need an affidavit?
Should pessimists ruin our sense of equanimity? Do we need to constantly challenge them and get into verbal tussles just to put doomsayers in their place? Are worst-case scenarios worth worrying about?
Scenario-building has long been a corporate planning tool. The process is derived from movie-making where scenes are laid out in a storyboard to determine the narrative flow. They also detail the logistical requirements such as the budget, sets, costumes, actors needed in the frame, and the location or weather for the best shoot.
Even in these unpredictable times, scenarios are still useful. They determine the way forward. Restaurants decide how long they can last in varying lockdown levels (just take-out) to see how much revenue will be diminished by fewer diners allowed in the same space. What scenario justifies closing the operation?
Worst-case scenarios are the hardest to deal with, even when they are assigned a low probability. In this pandemic, the vaccine seems to be the silver bullet that everyone is waiting for to kill this vampire sucking blood from the economy.
And when do we go back to watching movies on the big screen again? When can we travel freely? Will life really get back to the old normal when the contagion count is no longer a daily bulletin to watch out for at 4 p.m.? Maybe the news will finally go back to trivial pursuits like what politicians and movie stars are up to, not necessarily together.
Still, scenarios are based on what Donald Rumsfeld called the “known knowns,” or already familiar variables. The other category of “totally unexpected” is not considered in a scenario-building exercise. And a virus emanating from a city in China is definitely a “black swan,” a term first used by Nassim Taleb. He cites such an unforeseen event as the 2008 financial crisis, another contagion of sorts, arising from the proliferation of an investment instrument called collateralized debt obligation (CDO).
Containing panic and thus being able to cope with life’s volatility require us to revisit the stoic philosopher and Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius: “You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this and you will find strength.” Stoics are known for their calm reaction to both good fortune and bad.
Controlling our state of mind allows us to function normally and not be paralyzed by fear. No need to be reckless. We still wear a face mask when we have a haircut. Barbers are trained to cut around the ears.
Life is full of risks, even without a pandemic. We can get run over by a motorcycle. A heart attack can take us after a dinner of crabs at a lavish wedding reception, when this was still possible (and will surely be again).
Life is a gift and we take it one day at a time.
As to the irritating Mr. Doom whose posts you shouldn’t bother to read anymore or take the trouble to argue with, should he still make you lose sleep? Anyway, we are already living in a disaster movie. And we know its ending. There is a sunrise, a new beginning, and stirring music as the credits roll.
The best-case scenario is always a possibility… in our mind.
Tony Samson is Chairman and CEO, TOUCH xda
