Third-quarter palay production forecast raised 0.2% to 3.5 MMT

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PRODUCTION of palay, or unmilled rice, is estimated at 3.55 million metric tons (MMT) in the third quarter, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), representing a 0.2% upgrade from its previous forecast issued on July 1.

If realized, the palay production estimate would be equivalent to a 16.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a significant increase in harvestable area to 859,600 hectares, up 15.7% from a year earlier.

Yield per hectare for palay is estimated to increase 0.5% year on year to 4.13 MT.

“About 81,202 hectares or 9.5% of the updated standing crop have been harvested,” the PSA said.

The PSA said corn production for the three months to September is projected to increase to 2.82 MMT.


If realized, corn would post a 3.4% increase in output year on year.

The harvest area for corn is expected to rise 5.2% year on year to 919,583 hectares, with yield per hectare falling 1.6% to 3.06 MT.

“About 149,729 hectares or 16.3% of the updated standing crop has been harvested,” the PSA said.

Separately, the PSA said the national rice inventory in August fell 16.3% year on year to 1.79 MMT.

In its rice and corn inventory report, the PSA said August inventory is lower than the year-earlier 2.13 MMT.

In August, rice inventory held by households rose 7.5% year on year to 852.46 thousand MT while inventory in commercial warehouses fell 17.1% to 729.95 thousand MT.

Rice held by the National Food Authority (NFA) also fell 55.8% to 203.85 thousand MT.

The rice inventory in August also fell 15.1% month on month, with rice held by households falling 20.6%, over the same period. Inventory held by commercial warehouses fell 9.7%, while NFA holdings fell 8.4%.

“Of the total rice stocks for this month, 47.7% were in the households, 40.9% were in commercial warehouses, and 11.4% were in NFA depositories,” the PSA said.

The corn inventory in August rose 1.1% year on year to 732.18 thousand MT.

Corn held by households rose 3.5% year on year to 96.52 thousand MT, while inventory stored in commercial warehouses rose 0.8% year on year to 635.66 thousand MT.

NFA had no corn inventory during the period.

Month on month, household corn stocks rose 25.5% while commercial warehouse inventory fell 4.4%.

“About 86.8% of the current stocks were in commercial warehouses and 13.2% were in households,” the PSA said. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave