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Prepare for a bumpy year in coffee, oil and other commodities

COFFEE BEANS, percentage model miniature and US dollar banknote are seen in this illustration taken Dec. 17, 2024. — REUTERS

BEFORE it’s too late, order your espresso. It will be more expensive in 2025, and anyone trading — or observing — energy and commodity markets into the new year will need caffeine to survive.

First, a bit of honesty — 2025 looks awfully foggy. The supply-and-demand balance of key commodities can swing from hugely oversupplied to massively in deficit, depending on unpredictable politics. My crystal ball is about as good as anyone else’s about what Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu and several others will do. More than ever, predicting commodity prices in the new year is about forecasting political choices.

Still, we can anticipate a few themes — and few bits of commodity trivia I will be watching through the new year:

1) The OPEC+ oil cartel is on the ropes.

Having delayed a production increase by already six months, it’s unlikely that the group will be able to hike output in 2025 unless Trump comes to the rescue. Global oil demand growth in the new year is likely to reach around one million barrels a day, lower than the expected output growth from non-OPEC+ countries. The squeeze is the result of several years of high oil prices that have encouraged OPEC+’s rivals to invest in new output capacity.

Trump could alter the equation if he tightly enforces current American oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. For nearly four years, the Biden administration turned a blind eye on rising oil exports from both countries. If the incoming US president hits Tehran and Caracas, Saudi Arabia can use the opportunity to hike production. Otherwise, I don’t see much space for extra Saudi crude.

But Trump can create trouble for OPEC+, too, via two policies. One is his threat of a trade war, not only with Canada and Mexico, but also with the European Union and China, that could derail economic growth. The second is loosening regulations for American drilling. Trump has insisted his top priority is lower energy prices and more US oil and gas production, so, on balance, OPEC+ is likely to struggle. Yet, with Brent trading close to $70 a barrel, oil isn’t the easy short it was when it was close to $100 a barrel.

2) Like OPEC+, British oil major BP Plc is also on the ropes.

The company has been a disaster in the stock market, down more than 20% over the last five years. At current prices, its market value has declined to about $75 billion, a fraction of the $250 billion nearly two decades ago. The company has a key date with its shareholders in early February, when it’s scheduled to update its strategy.

The strategic update may give some investors a reason to stick with the company, but it will put the spotlight on two negatives: BP will effectively issue a profit warning. It previously guided the market to expect earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) as high as $49 billion in 2025. The true number is probably at least $10 billion lower. With that, share buybacks are likely to be lowered too, from a current pace of $1.75 billion a quarter to something far more affordable — say, $1 billion — to protect the balance sheet.

In the oil business, the credit rating comes ahead of the shareholders. Lower earnings and a smaller share repurchase could kill investor appetite for the stock, however, and open the door for a corporate deal. I have argued in the past that the company should seek a merger with a rival and see that as a high chance in 2025. The most obvious one is Shell Plc.

3) Watching OPEC+ and BP will require a steady supply of coffee.

Brace yourself for higher prices. Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s top producers of the Arabica and Robusta bean varieties, face a crop shortfall. This could be the fifth consecutive season where coffee consumption surpasses production, which is unprecedented. In late 2024, the price of Arabica surged to an all-time high, surpassing the nominal peak set in 1977. It may not be enough to keep the market balanced.

Coffee traders believe that if the Brazilian crop doesn’t recover — something unlikely — prices may need to climb from about 350 cents a pound currently to somewhere between 400 cents and 500 cents. Coffee roasters will in turn raise retail prices, particularly for the espresso made from Arabica beans.

While you’re bracing yourself for higher-for-longer coffee, add hot chocolate to your list.  The crops in West Africa, the region that accounts for 70% of the world’s cocoa production, haven’t recovered as much as previously expected, and prices are at record highs.

4) Coal is one of the commodities that receives less attention — despite its still-huge importance to the energy system and the fight against climate change.

For years, many have considered it to be “dead” or “dying.” At the COP26 climate change conference in 2021 in Glasgow, the world agreed to “consign coal to history.” But it’s alive, omnipotent and omnipresent. In 2024, the world consumed a record amount, and 2025 will be a pivotal year to see whether a change of trend occurs.

I’m pessimistic because China has adopted coal as the cornerstone of its energy system, with renewables as a complement. The Asian nation alone consumes 30% more coal that the rest of the world altogether, endangering any progress to stop global warming.

5) Iron ore is, alongside coal, one of those raw materials that is often overlooked.

It isn’t a mainstay of commodity investing in financial markets. But it’s key for the profitability of global mining groups and steelmakers alike. And it’s a great barometer of economic activity in China. Its price has dropped to $100 per metric ton now from more than $200 in 2021.

The new year could mark an inflection point for the commodity: Chinese steel production probably reached a zenith between 2022 and 2024, and at best, it would be able to sustain an elevated plateau in 2025. Because China nowadays produces more than half of the world’s steel, what happens there matters enormously. Crucially, iron-ore supply is going to increase next year too, including from a new source of low-cost production: Guinea in West Africa. Put the two forces together, and the iron-ore market may enter the first of several years of surpluses. Lower prices beckon in 2025.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

DDMP REIT to invest in high-growth properties

DDMP REIT, Inc. plans to invest in the long term in income-generating property assets that will provide competitive returns to investors, the listed company said in a 12-page filing outlining its three-year investment strategy sent to the Philippine Stock Exchange.

“The company will endeavor to acquire properties situated in high-growth areas, whether from the DoubleDragon Group or third parties to cater to economic growth,” the real estate investment trust company of listed property developer DoubleDragon Corp. said.

“DDMP REIT plans to add only mature real estate properties in its portfolio with stable cash flows,” it told the bourse. “It considers adding future properties that yield higher capitalization, preferably higher than the existing properties.”

DDMP REIT’s portfolio consists of three office buildings with six towers at the 4.75-hectare DD Meridian Park mixed-use development in Pasay City.

The buildings in the company’s portfolio include DoubleDragon Plaza that has four office towers, DoubleDragon Center East, and DoubleDragon Center West.

As of Sept. 30, DoubleDragon Plaza had a 70.81% occupancy rate, while DoubleDragon Center West had 94.76% occupancy. DoubleDragon Center East had full occupancy.

DDMP REIT’s net income fell 22.7% to P1.2 billion in the first nine months from a year earlier as revenue declined 18% to P1.53 billion. Rent income dropped 7.2% to P1.34 billion due to expired leases.

Costs and expenses rose 4.1% to P337.4 million due to higher taxes, licenses, and outsourced manpower services. — RMDO

S&P 500’s 2024 rally shocked forecasters expecting it to fizzle

BY THIS time last year, the stock market’s rally had blown past even the most optimistic targets and Wall Street forecasters were convinced it couldn’t keep up the dizzying pace.

So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. As the Federal Reserve shifted to cutting interest rates, Treasuries were seen as ripe to give equities a run for their money.

What followed, instead, delivered another humbling to Wall Street prognosticators who have been caught off guard by the market’s twists and turns ever since the end of the pandemic.

Rather than lose steam, equity prices continued to soar higher. By late January, the S&P 500 had already surpassed the average year-end target from strategists. It went on to hit one record high after another and is heading to a 25% gain in 2024, capping the strongest back-to-back annual runs since the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

“There is an element of miraculousness to it,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, who by mid-year abandoned his call for a slight dip in the S&P 500 and was the first among major strategists to introduce a year-end target of 6,000. “Trends can go on longer and go farther than one could ever imagine.”

The continuation of that trend is a testament to how much the post-pandemic economy has confounded forecasters by steadily expanding even after the Fed pushed interest rates to a more than two-decade high.

As 2023 was drawing to a close — and bonds were rallying strongly on speculation that the central bank would need to start easing policy aggressively — fixed-income strategists were predicting that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield would drift lower to end this year around 3.8%. It has risen to eclipse 4.6% instead.

The economy’s strength has supported the stock market’s rise by trickling down to corporate profits. At the same time, excitement about AI continued to push up the stocks of big tech companies like Alphabet, Inc., Amazon.com, Inc., Apple, Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Nvidia Corp. The rally got another boost from Donald J. Trump’s presidential victory by promising tax cuts and corporate-friendly policies.

The result has largely extinguished bearish sentiment on Wall Street and driven some strategists to capitulate by ditching pessimistic calls.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson — who in 2023 delivered a drumbeat of warnings that equities were poised to slide — by this May turned positive on stocks. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic, who had predicted the S&P 500 would tumble 12% by December, left the bank in mid-2024 after two decades at the firm. In late November, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, who now heads JPMorgan’s market research team, dropped the previously bearish target and predicted the S&P 500 will keep climbing next year.

Mr. Lakos-Bujas said some of the team’s missteps reflected the difficulty of anticipating the surge of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which account for an outsized chunk of the S&P 500’s gains. But he said there’s solid reasons for the optimism from here, citing an easing Fed, the change of power in Washington, and a Chinese government that’s eager to keep its economy humming.

“We have effectively three puts in place,” said Mr. Lakos-Bujas, who expects the S&P 500 to rise to 6,500 next year, a gain of about 9% from Friday’s level. That “shifted our thinking process in terms of risky assets and equities.”

It wasn’t only the pessimists who were caught off guard. Almost every top strategist tracked by Bloomberg boosted their S&P 500 targets at least once this year after the index shot through them.

When the targets were first published in late 2023, even the most bullish forecasters at the time — Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus — expected the S&P 500 to rise only about 9% to 5,200, a level that it surpassed in less than three months.

There were some moments when it looked like the stock market was due for a reversal but they proved short lived. While the S&P 500 slid from mid-July through early August, it soon resumed its march higher as worries about tech earnings faded. A selloff sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone this month also quickly reversed.

The steep climb, of course, has sown some concern that valuations have become too stretched. That’s particularly acute for companies tied to AI, given uncertainty about whether the technology will live up to its promise. And the market’s embrace of Mr. Trump’s victory ignores the risks posed by his tariff and tax-cut plans, which could rekindle inflation and stymie global trade.

But few are calling for the rally to end. In fact, none of the 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg expects the S&P 500 to decline next year. Even the lowest forecast sees the benchmark holding steady; the most optimistic — at 7,100 — implies a 19% rally.

Binky Chadha, chief US equity and global strategist at Deutsche Bank, has been among the bullish cohort on Wall Street for the past three years. His 2025 target of 7,000 points is among the most optimistic, reflecting his expectation for continued economic growth and low unemployment. He said he’s not worried about being caught offsides.

Forecasting markets means taking it “a year at a time,” he said. “In a typical year, equities will pull back by 3% to 5% every two to three months. Does that mean you shouldn’t buy equities? No, you should because they’re going back up.” — Bloomberg

Philippines projected to be the 23rd largest economy in 2039

The Philippines is projected to be the 23rd largest economy by 2039 according to the latest edition of the World Economic League Table published by London-based think tank Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The projection is a significant improvement for the country, jumping 10 places from 33rd rank out of 189 economies in 2024.

Philippines projected to be the 23<sup>rd</sup> largest economy in 2039

Marcos, Duterte second-half trust ratings drop

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and Vice-President (VP) Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio’s trust ratings in the latter half of 2024 dropped after they failed to address critical national issues, according to the latest survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS).

The survey, conducted in partnership with Stratbase Group, revealed that net trust in President Marcos went down to +29 in December from +42 in July.

More than half of respondents, or 54%, said they have “Much Trust” in President Marcos, down from 64% in July. Those who were undecided about their trust in the President rose to 19% in December from 17% in September and 14% in July, while those with “Little Trust” were unchanged at 25% from September.

Regionally, the President’s most significant decline was in Mindanao, where respondents with “Much Trust” plummeted to 33% in December from 50% in July. Conversely, those with “Little Trust” increased to 42% from 33%.

Stratbase President Victor Andres C. Manhit noted the survey results reflect the public’s call for the government to prioritize addressing pressing national issues, particularly inflation and job creation.

“There is a need for the government to continuously implement strategic interventions and bolster awareness about significant government efforts that aim to address key socio-economic concerns, especially among the youth and highly educated groups,” he said in a statement on Monday.

“As inflation and livelihood persist as pressing issues, the administration must focus on delivering clear and impactful solutions that resonate with the daily lives of Filipinos. For Filipinos, economic performance and good governance, remain the most compelling proof points for boosting public trust.”

The survey also found that Vice-President Duterte’s net trust rating suffered, declining to +23 in December from +45 in July, which Mr. Manhit linked to the unexplained spending of confidential and intelligence funds (CIF) by her office and the Department of Education, she previously headed.

Her refusal to answer questions on CIF fund use has “significantly eroded the public’s confidence” in her, he added.

The share of respondents with “Much Trust” in Ms. Duterte went down to 52% from 65% over the same period, while those with “Little Trust” in her rose to 29% in December from 27% in September and 21% in July.

Those who were undecided increased to 17% this month from 16% in September and 13% in July.

Survey results indicated that the sharp decline in Ms. Duterte’s trust ratings was largely concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Balance Luzon.

In NCR, the percentage of respondents with “Much Trust” in her dropped significantly to 41% in December from 62% in July. While those with “Little Trust” increased by 13%, rising to 40% in December from 27%.

Similarly, in Balance Luzon, the number of respondents with “Much Trust” in Ms. Duterte fell by 22% over the six months, while those with “Little Trust” grew by 13%.

Despite these declines, Ms. Duterte’s overall trust rating is being pulled by slower decreases in trust levels in the Visayas and the enduring loyalty of respondents from Mindanao.

In the Visayas, the percentage of respondents with “Much Trust” declined to 57% from 61% over the six-month period, while it climbed to 83% from 82% in July among respondents in Mindanao.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the decline in the two top officials may not yet reflect the leadership preferences of the public.

“We are still very much clientelistic especially when you go down local, and Marcos Jr. is likely to survive further weathering if his government can deliver on basic necessities, actually reverse policy disappointments, and remain consistent on his foreign policy,” he told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“Like it or not, VP Sara has lost the narrative against her, not helped by her camp’s sheer obstinacy and media illiteracy, which is a shock considering how her father exploited it to the hilt during his tenure.”

The survey, conducted from December 12 to 18, involved face-to-face interviews with 2,160 respondents and has a margin of error of ±2%.

Midterm polls, Marcos and Duterte rift cost Filipinos key reforms, analysts say

PHILIPPINE STAR/EDD GUMBAN

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

KEY POLICY reforms in education, health, and labor among other sectors have been “disregarded” as focus shifted to the 2025 midterm elections and the widening rift between two of the country’s most influential political families, analysts said.

Political observers noted that incumbent politicians this year were more concerned with securing reelection and the deepening political feud between President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio instead of the policy agenda.

“Many opportunities for reform and lasting changes were disregarded as they focused more on controlling people through excessive allocations that are translated as favors to some and dole-outs to ordinary people,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Mr. Aguirre said that Filipinos and policymakers alike were “distracted” by the Marcos-Duterte strife this year, resulting in key policies for the “education, health, labor, and energy sectors” taking a backseat.

“We have yet to see long-term and systemic reforms and changes that would really lead to economic growth and development,” he said.

“Most government initiatives and programs, such as Ayuda Para sa Kapos ang Kita Program and other forms of cash assistance given by local government units, are inherently dole-outs,” he added. “Billions of pesos are lost every fiscal year because of this kind of spending that is still endemic in our political institutions and government bureaucracy.”

This year can be described as “an aggravation of oligarchic politics and nationalization of clientelism,” Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, said in a Facebook chat.

Meanwhile, Dennis C. Coronacion, who chairs the University of Sto. Tomas Political Science Department, said that this year’s political events were shaped by a few elites with a stake in the developments.

“Our political landscape has always been dominated by political dynasties. Thus, our political events in 2024 have been shaped and dictated by their interests,” he said in a Facebook chat.

PIVOTAL YEAR
Next year could be a pivotal period for the government of Mr. Marcos as Filipinos are set to elect half of the influential 24-seat Senate, and a new set of party-list and district representatives.

“The Marcos Jr. administration could make 2025 a pivotal year if it could crowd out the Dutertes and reinforce its hold on the presidential bandwagon,” Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo, said in a Facebook chat.

Incumbent presidents risk losing their political clout during midterm elections as voters get a chance to shape the composition of both chambers of Congress, which is currently in favor of Mr. Marcos.

“The midterm elections are always a validation and an assessment of the incumbent administration,” Edmund S. Tayao, president of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, said in a Viber message.

The Marcos administration would need to show “strength” in the months leading up to the election to bolster its perception to Filipino voters, Maria Ela L. Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said in a Viber message.

“The administration has to show its strength as well as provide some level of satisfaction as far as people’s perspectives are concerned. It should not simply rely on patronage and ayuda (aid),” she said. “There is growing discontent on the part of people even in surveys.”

Despite a dip in trust ratings for the country’s top officials in the latter half of 2024, a Social Weather Survey revealed that 54% of respondents still trust Mr. Marcos as president, while 52% of Filipinos trust Ms. Duterte.

The voting preferences of Filipinos won’t likely be affected by issues that hounded 2024, such as the controversial 2025 national budget and the feud between the Marcoses and Dutertes, according to Mr. Borja.

“Unless these issues are pinned on specific candidates or end up into severe crises that can affect a person’s everyday life, then I don’t think it would have much impact on voting preference,” he said.

But it remains likely that Filipino voters would choose candidates offering dole-outs, Mr. Juliano said. “The public remains hostage to clientelism and ‘bring home the bacon politics’ in their voting choices.”

While there could be political shifts after the midterm elections, its outcome remains bleak as political dynasties continue to dominate the ballots, according to Mr. Tayao.

“There may be change but for the worse.”

Congress told to revisit wage-setting system, EPIRA reforms

STOCK PHOTO | Image by wal_172619 from Pixabay

By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter

PHILIPPINE LAWMAKERS should review the country’s wage-setting system and consider amending the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 when Congress resumes session on Jan. 13 to ensure workers’ adequate pay amid rising costs of living and affordable power costs for employers, according to labor analysts.

“Congress should prioritize passing the security of tenure bill, approving a P150 wage increase, and reviewing the process for setting minimum wages to ensure they reflect the cost of living and workers’ rights,” Sentro ng mga Nagkakaisa at Progresibong Manggagawa (SENTRO) Secretary-General Josua T. Mata said in a Viber message.

In February, the Senate passed on the third and final reading a P100 across-the-board increase for private-sector workers. The House of Representatives has yet to pass a counterpart bill.

Labor groups have said the country’s wage-setting system has failed since many workers still live in poverty even after paltry minimum wage increases.

The National Capital Region’s wage board in June approved a hike to the minimum wage by P35 pesos to P645, which took effect on July 17.

“While there are many significant reforms that need attention, focusing on these measures would be a meaningful way for Congress to conclude its sessions and leave a positive legacy.”

He also said that amending or repealing the EPIRA law could pave the way for reliable and affordable power costs for consumers and businesses.

Energy Undersecretary Sharon S. Garin earlier urged senators to amend the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) charter to allow price increases without regulatory approval as long as these fall within a set benchmark or bracket.

This would allow the ERC to do away with the cumbersome approval process that power distributors have complained about, she told a Senate energy committee hearing that is looking at changes to the 23-year-old EPIRA.

Renato B. Magtubo, a former congressman and chairman of Partidong Manggagawa added that stronger protection measures must be implemented to address the plight of contractual workers through a security of tenure law.

“The proliferation of labor contracting practices in which workers employed by labor contractors are supplied to principal employers as agency workers affects workers’ productivity since this circumvents the right to regular employment,” the former lawmaker said in a Viber message.

Mr. Magtubo added that Congress should also legislate measures to grow and expand the local economy by supporting farmers and local manufacturers. He said this could boost agricultural production and make local manufacturers competitive.

OP gets P5B more for ASEAN Summit chairmanship in 2026

THE Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit is being held in Laos. — REVOLI S. CORTEZ/PPA POOL

THE Office of the President (OP) on Monday confirmed that it had gotten a P5-billion increase in the 2025 national budget as the Philippines is set to host the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2026.   

“The NEP (National Expenditure Program) was followed but P5.2 billion was added (OP’s budget) due to ASEAN 2026,” Executive Secretary Lucas P. Bersamin told reporters in mixed English and Filipino on the sidelines of the signing ceremony for the 2025 General Appropriations Act.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique A. Manalo had earlier said the country may raise its South China Sea dispute with China during the Summit.

“Our President agreed to host ASEAN because we could not allow it not to happen,” he said in Filipino. “That’s a very important part of our international relations.”

The Philippine government’s preparations for the ASEAN Summit in 2026 will begin next year, he noted.   

‘’After the submission of the NEP, we asked Congress for a supplemental fund in addition to what we proposed for the OP in the NEP to the tune of P5.2 billion for 2025,’’ Mr. Bersamin said.   

The OP proposed a P10.5-billion budget for 2025, 1.88% lower than its current budget.

After the Senate’s ratification of the 2025 budget bill, Senate Committee on Finance Chairperson Senator Grace L. Poe disclosed that senators had met with Mr. Bersamin to discuss the Philippines’ hosting of ASEAN in 2026.   

Citing him, Ms. Poe said ASEAN hosts usually have to prepare a venue for about 400 meetings, on top of security and housing for the main delegates and their staff. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Magnitude 5.6 quake jolts Luzon

A MAGNITUDE 5.6 earthquake struck Luzon in the Philippines on Monday, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) said.

The quake was at a depth of 10 kilometers (6.2 miles), GFZ said.

Philippine seismology agency Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said the tremor struck the northern town of Bangui in Ilocos province. The agency was not expecting damage, but said aftershocks are likely from the shallow quake.

Phivolcs also reported the earthquake triggered by tectonic plate movement was felt in Sinait and Cabugao, Ilocos Sur at Intensity V, while Intensity IV was felt in Sarrat, Ilocos Norte, Claveria, Cagayan and Tubo in Abra.

It was also felt at Intensity III in Lacub town, also in Abra; Intensity II in Aparri and Lasam towns in Cagayan.

Earthquakes are common in the Philippines, which is in the Pacific Ocean’s “Ring of Fire,” where volcanic activity and earthquakes frequently occur. — Artemio A. Dumlao with Reuters

BuCor frees 1,000 inmates

BUCOR

THE Bureau of Corrections (BuCor) granted a fresh start to 1,000 prisoners released between November and December 2024, bringing the total number of convicts released this year to 7,707.

In a statement on Monday, Director General Gregorio Pio P. Catapang, Jr. said of the newly released inmates,  625 completed their maximum sentences, 190 received parole, 134 were acquitted, 38 were granted probation, 11 through habeas corpus, one granted a motion for release, and another one turned over to jail.

The majority of the convicts came from the Maximum Security Camp of the New Bilibid Prison (199), followed by the Davao Prison and Penal Farm (170) and the Medium Security Camp of the national penitentiary (146).

BuCor had also set a timeline adjustment for the release of prisoners convicted of heinous crimes who are eligible for Good Conduct Time Allowance (GCTA) to early next year due to the effectivity clause of the Revised Implementing Rules and Regulations of the Republic Act 10592.

The GCTA rewards eligible prisoners with sentence reductions for good conduct and exemplary behavior.

In 2021, the Supreme Court ruled that individuals convicted of heinous crimes were excluded from availing of GCTA. However, a recent Supreme Court en banc decision this year overturned this exclusion, allowing such individuals to qualify for GCTA when serving their sentences. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana

Stricter aviation measures sought

RESCUE WORKERS take part in a salvage operation at the site where an aircraft crashed after it went off the runway at Muan International Airport in Muan, South Korea, Dec. 29, 2024. — REUTERS

THE PHILIPPINE government must raise its safety aviation protocols such as monitoring bird migration after a Jeju Air Boeing 737 crashed and killed 179 people in South Korea after a bird strike warning had been issued, according to a Philippine senator.

“Changes in the pattern and volume of migratory birds should be constantly tracked, especially since the Ninoy Aquino International Airport is located a few kilometers away from Freedom Islan, a protected bird sanctuary in Manila Bay,” Senate Majority Floor Leader Francis N. Tolentino said in a statement on Monday.

He said more measures to deter bird strikes on aircraft taking off or landing should be implemented to prevent disastrous air accidents.

The Jeju Air flight, which was coming from the Thai capital Bangkok, belly-landed, skidded off the end of a runway and burst into flames at Muan International Airport, Reuters reported on Monday.

The crash was dubbed the deadliest air accident in South Korea after killing 179 passengers and crew members. Two crew members survived and were being treated for injuries. — John Victor D. Ordoñez

More Filipinos study in Europe

MORE Filipino students are pursuing master’s and doctoral degrees in Europe because of extensive and specialized studies not offered in the Philippines.

“It offers extensive and highly specialized studies from wine tourism to Copernicus space program to law and economics,” Thelma Gecolea, public affairs officer at the European Union (EU) Delegation to the Philippines, told BusinessWorld in an interview.

“As you explore the borderless EU you can also share your expertise. Courses that are not available in countries like the Philippines are available in EU,” she said.

Ms. Gecolea added that although it took some time for Filipinos to be more open to exploring higher education programs in the EU, stories from fellow students sparked more international student admissions.

“Countless testimonials of successful Filipino students including those who have been receiving honors have inspired more youth leaders to go to the EU for their intended programs,” she said.

Vilma P. Del Rosario, an Erasmus program graduate, added that studying abroad expands career options internationally.

“It certainly increases your opportunities to find jobs in other countries because you have already proven that you can easily adapt with a different environment, you can easily work with different cultures,” she said.

Last November, the European Higher Education Fair (EHEF) held its annual fair, connecting universities to participants interested in studying overseas.

“We have a number of European higher education institutions coming back to the fair for the fifth, sixth consecutive year. This meant that the admission following the fair has been very positive,” Ms. Gecolea said.

Financial constraints are one of the challenges of studying abroad, according to Ms. Gecolea.

“Most of the tuition fees are affordable even in our standards,” she said. “The challenges are the living expenses,” she said.

Eramsus+, the EU’s program to support education in Europe with an estimated budget of €26.2 billion, aims to address these challenges by providing around 20% of its annual global budget for Asian countries.

“Erasmus program or other grants enable those from third countries to pursue higher education program in the EU,” Ms. Gecolea said. — Almira Louise S. Martinez

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