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Jobstreet to study overseas workers demand

JOB search site Jobstreet.com (Jobstreet) has signed an agreement with the Labor department to survey the international market for Filipino workers.

Jobstreet Philippines Country Manager Philip A. Gioca told BusinessWorld said that the collaboration with the labor department will help the Philippines adjust to developments in global demand.

“The problem with the Philippines is that when there is a low demand… people will produce so much. We need to have good calibration to (be in tune with) the world’s supply of talent,” he said.

He added that the Department of Labor and Employment (DoLE) and Jobstreet have collaborated before in research but in the upcoming study, “We will try to project demand and the supply of talent… over periods like the next five years.”

Mr. Gioca said that the study will be released six months from now and will monitor various industries.

The study aims to also answer how to manage occupations where demand and supply have been fluctuating, which he said include nursing. He added that schools have limited their output nurses because of past reports of oversupply.

“There’s high demand and limited supply (for nurses)… Around three to five years ago, we had an oversupply of nurses so the colleges decreased the number of classes. Now, (those decisions) have taken their toll,” Mr. Gioca said. — Gillian M. Cortez

UnionBank launches stablecoin PHX for use on its blockchain platform

UNIONBANK of the Philippines, Inc. launched its own stablecoin to provide rural banks under its blockchain-powered platform easier access to remittance and payments.

In a statement on Thursday, the Aboitiz-led bank said it is issuing PHX, a stablecoin to be used on its i2i network of rural lenders and UnionBank.

UnionBank President and Chief Executive Officer Edwin R. Bautista said PHX is a “tokenized” fiat directly pegged to the Philippine peso and is backed by the blockchain technology.

“(Stablecoins) utilize the technology behind cryptocurrency. Behavior of these mirrors that of fiat because it is always worth the value of the underlying fiat currency, hence, no volatility,” Mr. Bautista said in an e-mailed response.

Successful live transactions were conducted on Wednesday, executed by three rural banks participating in the i2i network, namely Summit Rural Bank, Progressive Bank and Cantilan Bank.

“Each of three rural banks performed buy, transfer and redemption transactions for PHX. The three banks were also able to conduct domestic remittances to one another using PHX,” UnionBank said.

“(PHX) enables transparent and automatic execution of payments,” said Ramon Vicente V. De Vera II, UnionBank senior vice president and head of its fintech business group. “Reconciliation challenges of the past are no longer an issue. Meanwhile, audit and compliance are made easier.”

i2i is a blockchain-based platform that connects rural banks to each other and to UnionBank, providing small lenders access to services which can be coursed through the system. Launched in 2018, i2i is now handled by UBX, UnionBank’s financial technology arm.

Blockchain is a distributed data ledger which involves a large network of entities where data is stored in “blocks.” The storage units are continuously updated and being secured using cryptography, making data management and data-driven processes decentralized, tamper-proof and more transparent.

PHX will be made available to rural banks under the i2i platform. These lenders can buy or sell stablecoins though their UnionBank accounts.

Given its interoperability, PHX can soon be used across various platforms and electronic wallets.

“This has the potential to make transactions, payments and other use cases more accessible, efficient and inclusive,” the bank said.

“In the future, the advantages and value of a token economy will become very apparent in terms of exponential progress in efficiency, productivity, governance and customer service,” UnionBank chairman Justo A. Ortiz said.

On Tuesday, UnionBank piloted its cross-border remittance service for local rural banks through blockchain.

The ninth largest bank in the country in asset terms posted a P2.16-billion net income in the first quarter, down 26% from P2.93 billion recorded in the same period in 2018.

UnionBank shares closed unchanged at P60 apiece on Thursday. — K.A.N. Vidal

Your Weekend Guide (July 26, 2019)

Tertulia de Memoria

PALACIO de Memoria hosts its first heritage weekend lecture series, dubbed “Tertulia de Memoria,” on July 27 and 28. The restored pre-war Roxas Boulevard estate and gardens serve as the backdrop and venue for this two-day event that aims to foster a renewed sense of heritage appreciation. With broadcast journalist Ces Drilon as moderator, the speakers include heritage and cultural advocate Isidra Reyes; architect, author and professor Dr. Gerardo Lico; ABS-CBN Film Restoration head Leo Katigbak; Cultural Heritage Studies Program Head of the Ateneo de Manila University, Dr. Fernando N. Zialcita; playwright and essayist Floy Quintos; and Heritage Conservation Society trustee Conrado Alampay. The forums range from adaptive reuse for buildings, to art and film restoration. There will be special sunset movie screenings of digitally re-mastered and restored Filipino movies: on July 27, 5 p.m., Peque Gallagas’ Oro, Plata, Mata (1982); July 28, 5p.m., National Artist Eddie Romero’s Ganito Kami Noon, Paano Kayo Ngayon (1976). Tickets are available at Palacio de Memoria on 95 Roxas Blvd., Parañaque, at www.ticketworld.com.ph, and at selected TicketWorld outlets. For details visit https://www.facebook.com/thepalaciodememoria/.

Sheena Easton concert

RANDOM Minds presents Grammy-award winning singer-songwriter Sheena Easton in a concert, Sheena Easton Live in Manila, on July 26, 8 p.m., at the Theatre at Solaire. For tickets and schedules, visit TicketWorld (www.ticketworld.com.ph, 891-9999).

Ang Huling El Bimbo

FULL HOUSE Theater Company presents the final run of Ang Huling El Bimbo, a musical featuring the songs of the Eraserheads, with performances until Aug. 15 at the Newport Performing Arts Theater, Resorts World Manila, Pasay City. For tickets and schedules, visit TicketWorld (www.ticketworld.com.ph, 891-9999).

Rak of Aegis

THE hit Pinoy jukebox musical Rak of Aegis returns to the PETA Theater Center, with ongoing performances until Sept. 29. The show features the songs of Aegis. Tickets are available through TicketWorld (www.ticketworld.com.ph, 891-9999).

DTI taps more credit delivery partners for P3 program

THE government is boosting its Pondo sa Pagbabago at Pag-asenso (P3) program with an expanded network of credit delivery partners to help micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) access loans more easily.

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), through government-owned and -controlled corporation Small Business Corp., introduced yesterday 10 new credit delivery partners from rural areas for its P3 program.

These partners — which may be rural banks, cooperatives or market vendor associations — help the P3 program by processing loan applications from MSMEs. They will act as underwriter for loan applications and monitor registered P3 accounts.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said in a program in Pasay City that having a wide network of credit delivery partners is seen to increase the number of MSMEs to benefit from the government lending initiative.

“For this to thrive and for this to have high repayment rates, we have to partner with (financing institutions), cooperatives… because you would have a better understanding of the situation on the grassroots because you’re already there,” he said.

The 10 new credit delivery partners come from Isabela, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Marikina City, Cebu City, Davao City, Surigao del Sur and Quezon Province.

With the new partners, SB Corp. now has a total of 353 credit delivery partners helping lend to almost 90,000 MSMEs across the country. The total loans disbursed to micro- entrepreneurs under the P3 program stood at P2.9 billion as of July 23.

Started in 2017, the P3 program aims to discourage the use of loan sharks, which are known for the “5-6” scheme by offering MSMEs with loans from P5,000 to P200,000 with a 2.5% monthly interest.

“The P3 is supposed to replace about P30 billion — worth of ‘5-6’ (lending),” Mr. Lopez said, noting the government has to “reach out to more (MSMEs).”

One of the long-term plans of the DTI for the program is to have a law signed that will institutionalize P3 with a P4-billion budget allocation.

“We will ask for the President to certify it (P3 bill) urgent, because in the first place, this was started by that brainstorming with (him). The main purpose is really to institutionalize the program. Ibig sabihin kahit wala na kami [Which means even when we’re gone], there will be a P3 program para sa mga micro (for MSMEs),” he said. — Denise A. Valdez

Ryanair Portuguese cabin crew to strike

DUBLIN — Ryanair cabin crew in Portugal are set to strike for five days in August in a dispute over pay and conditions, the SNPVAC union said on Wednesday.

The industrial action comes as Ryanair pilots in Ireland and the United Kingdom are holding ballots on a possible strike action in August. SNPVAC said it had not yet decided which days in August it would strike.

Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, suffered a series of damaging strikes last year.

Management say significant progress has been made since, with collective labor agreements concluded with a number of pilot unions throughout Europe.

But SNPVAC said Ryanair has refused to comply with a protocol signed last November, which it said included holiday pay, 22 days of annual leave per year and full compliance with Portuguese parental law.

“Facing the intransigence from Ryanair and the lack of interest of the Portuguese government on guaranteeing the fundamental labor rights to their citizens that work for Ryanair, the cabin crew had no other choice but to return to the industrial conflict,” SNPVAC said in a statement.

Ryanair did not immediately respond to a request for comment. — Reuters

Fed to cut rates for first time in a decade this month

A QUARTER-POINT Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July is almost a done deal, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who expect another later in the year amid rising economic risks from the ongoing US-China trade war.

Expectations in the July 16-24 poll for the first rate cut in more than a decade have firmed this month after several Fed members have strongly hinted policy easing is coming soon, pushing US stocks to new record highs.

While that lines up with most major central banks, which have turned dovish in recent months, the latest poll shows economists, like financial markets, have settled on a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to 2.00-2.25% rather than a half-point reduction.

Over 95% of 111 economists now predict a 25-basis-point cut at the July 30-31 meeting. Only two economists polled expected a 50 basis point reduction and a further two said the Fed would hold steady.

“The biggest reason for the Fed to cut rates is because it has been priced into the markets for a while now. If they didn’t follow through and cut, it would cause a bit of a shock,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

“I think the recent general message from the Fed seems to be that it’s more about downside risks to growth rather than the economy being already weak.”

Indeed, while some forward-looking indicators on activity in the US economy have dipped, the unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years and Wall Street is at a record high — not normally the environment for a change in the interest rate cycle.

Fed rate expectations have taken a U-turn this year, going to a holding pattern earlier in the year from a steady tightening path expected beforehand to a series of cuts. Indeed, just a month ago, the US central bank was still forecast to keep policy on hold for now and ease next year.

But since then, concerns about the impact from the trade war on already-slowing growth as well as weak inflation pressure have got policy makers increasingly concerned.

“Our reasoning for policy easing — slowing growth against a backdrop of subdued inflation and elevated uncertainty — is consistent with the Fed’s reasoning for insurance cuts,” noted economists at Goldman Sachs.

“By contrast, market-implied odds are consistent with a turn in the cycle, which we do not foresee in the near-term.”

The US economy likely lost momentum last quarter and is now forecast to have expanded at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the April-June period, down from 3.1% reported for the first quarter, according to the poll. Growth is expected to hover around that rate in each quarter through to end-2020.

More than 75% of common contributors from last month either downgraded their growth outlook or kept it unchanged.

The latest consensus points to another rate cut in the final quarter and nearly 40% of respondents predicted a follow-up cut was likely to come as early as September.

But interest rate futures are pricing in three rate cuts this year — in July, September and December.

Beyond this year, the US central bank is forecast to keep policy on hold until 2021, the poll showed.

“We don’t think this is the start of a full-on easing cycle; rather, these cuts are about providing a bit more accommodation to offset trade headwinds,” said Josh Nye, a senior economist at RBC.

“Fifty basis points of easing would fall short of what markets are currently pricing in over the next year, but should be enough to placate investors that are concerned monetary policy has become a bit too restrictive.”

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — the change in the core personal consumption expenditures price index — has remained below the 2% target since the start of 2019 and is not expected shoot significantly higher anytime soon.

With the economy still growing and inflation on an even keel, there was a clear gap between what the economists say the Fed is likely to do and what they recommend.

Asked what the Fed should do at this month’s meeting, nearly two-thirds of over 75 respondents said cut rates by 25 basis points. Five said policy makers should cut by 50, while the remaining — over 25% of economists — said they should do nothing.

“The issues that are affecting the US economy right now and the inflation environment won’t be helped by lower rates,” said Thomas Simons, senior economist at Jefferies.

“What is weakening economic forecasts going forward is trade tensions. Lowering rates 25 or 50 basis points is not going to change that situation. From a fundamental point of view, it doesn’t make sense to us.” — Reuters

SEC warns against investing in Tabale Cacao Farms

THE Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has advised the public against dealing with Tabale Cacao Farms and Togachat Academy Philippines, Inc. for their unauthorized solicitation of investments.

In an advisory posted on its website, the country’s corporate regulator said a certain Japhet Tabale, also known as Sir Japhet, has been inviting people to invest in his cacao business, Tabale Cacao Farms, through social media accounts.

Citing Rule 3.1.17 of the 2015 Implementing Rules and Regulations of the Securities Regulation Code (SRC), the commission noted that such public invitation to invest constitutes the public offering of securities.

“Any solicitation or presentation of securities for sale through any of the following modes shall be presumed to be a public offering:…advertisement or announcement in any radio, telephone, electronic communications, information communication technology or any other forms of communication,” according to the SRC.

The SEC further found that Mr. Tabale promised a guaranteed 100% return of capital and share to prospective investors, despite his lack of permits or licenses to publicly offer or sell securities to the public.

Those who act as salesmen, brokers, dealers, or agents in Mr. Tabale’s business may also be held criminally liable under the SRC, with a maximum fine of P5 million or imprisonment of up to 21 years.

The SEC also noted how Mr. Tabale identified himself to be the former branch manager for General Santos City of alleged investment scam Kapa Community Ministry International, Inc., which has been charged with violations of the SRC.

Meanwhile, the commission also warned the public against Togachat Academy, which has been found to be enticing people to invest a minimum of P5,000 in exchange for high monetary rewards.

“The public is hereby informed that the subject entity registered with the Commission as a corporation, however, it is not authorized to solicit investments from the public, not having secured prior registration and/or license to sell securities or solicit investments as prescribed under Section 8 of the SRC,” the commission said.

Just like those involved in Tabale Cacao Farms, salesmen, brokers, dealers or agents of Togachat Academy may face a fine of up to P5 million, or imprisonment of up to 21 years as per the SRC. —Arra B. Francia

Nissan to slash 9% of workforce after Q1 results

YOKOHAMA — Japanese car maker Nissan Motor Co said it is axing 12,500 jobs and warned a quick turnaround in its performance was not imminent after reporting its quarterly profit was nearly wiped out.

The announcement on Thursday shows how a crisis — brought about by sluggish sales and rising costs — is worsening at Japan’s No. 2 automaker even as it tries to recover from a financial misconduct scandal surrounding ousted Chairman Carlos Ghosn.

Nissan, which said the job cuts will be made globally by 2022, added that it will reduce global production capacity and its product line-up by about 10% by the end of fiscal 2022. The automaker had 138,000 employees globally as of March 2018.

Its first-quarter operating profit plunged 98.5% to 1.6 billion yen ($14.80 million) as it continues to struggle in North America, a key market where it has been stung by mounting costs of vehicle discounts to keep up with rivals.

Years of heavy discounting to grow sales has left Nissan with a cheapened brand image and low vehicle resale values, while the costs to offer high discounts have hit its bottom line.

Nissan had flagged a steep drop in profit on Wednesday.

The dismal quarter will add pressure on Hiroto Saikawa, Nissan’s embattled CEO, who has been tasked with shoring up the company’s performance amid the Ghosn scandal. Ghosn has denied the charges of financial misconduct.

The automaker is widening job cuts initially announced in May as it struggles to improve weak profit margins in the United States, where Ghosn for years had pushed to aggressively grow market share during his time as CEO.

Nissan’s operating profit in the April-June quarter compared with the 109.14 billion yen made in the year-ago period and missed the 39.52 billion yen average of eight analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.

The company maintained its profit forecast of 230 billion yen for the year ending March 2020, a 28% drop from last year and its weakest in more than a decade. — Reuters

Australia’s central bank governor signals low interest rates for longer

SYDNEY — Australia’s top central banker flagged low interest rates for an “extended period” on Thursday, driving bond yields to record lows, in a dovish signal that analysts say marks a major shift in the bank’s approach to guiding market expectations.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced interest rates twice since June to an all-time low 1% to revive growth and inflation. Financial markets are pricing in a real chance of a third cut before Christmas.

In a speech on Thursday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the RBA was prepared to provide additional policy stimulus if needed.

“On current projections, it will be some time before inflation is comfortably back within the target range,” Lowe said in Sydney. “Whether or not further monetary easing is needed, it is reasonable to expect an extended period of low interest rates.”

The RBA is traditionally seen as reluctant to commit to long-term guidance on policy so Lowe’s reference to an “extended period” was seen as a dovish concession to markets.

The more explicit-than-usual comments on rates were also seen as borrowing from the lexicon of other central banks, which use such language to guide market rates.

“This is a form of forward guidance, which the European and the Americans have used in various points of time,” AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver.

“They are saying ‘we won’t even think about raising rates’, which gives you an impression interest rates would be low for a long time.”

In responding to questions after the speech, Lowe said he was not shifting toward forward guidance but was instead being “as transparent as possible”.

The promise of lower for longer rates sent yields on 10-year government bonds to a record low of 1.237%, compared with around 2.5% at the start of the year. The local dollar eased to a two-week trough of $0.6965.

“The important thing for markets was that Lowe was still retaining his easing bias,” said David Bassanese, chief economist at BetaShares and an Economic Advisor to the National Institute for Economic and Industry Research.

“After the July board meeting, there was some debate as to whether they have paused on easing…Based on the RBA’s forecasts they don’t need to cut again but the risk is that their forecasts end up being optimistic. They have tended to be more on the optimistic side than how things have been playing out.”

The RBA in May cut its growth forecast for the country’s A$1.9 trillion economy to under 3% this year from previous projection of “a little above” 3%.

Long-term expectations for inflation were also revised lower such that it is not seen returning to the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target band through to mid-2021.

Inflation has already undershot that range for more than three years now but Lowe sounded confident on Thursday the target was still achievable.

Lowe was speaking on “Inflation Targeting and Economic Welfare” amid speculation in local media and academia over whether the target should be lowered.

Earlier on Thursday, the Australian Financial Review reported Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was reviewing the target and assessing the government’s monetary policy mandate for the central bank, which sets the guidelines for its actions on interest rates.

Lowe made it clear that the target was still appropriate and has “stood the test of time”. In responding to questions after his speech, he said he was confident the target would stay.

“We are not inflation nutters. Rather, we are seeking to deliver low and stable inflation in a way that maximizes the welfare of our society,” Lowe said in the speech. — Reuters

What to see this week

6 films to see on the week of July 26 — August 1, 2019

Yesterday

AFTER a freak bus accident, a struggling musician realizes that the Beatles have never existed in the world he wakes up to. He then starts to introduce the Bealtes’ oeuvre to the world. Directed by Danny Boyle, the film stars Jimesh Patel, Lily James, Joel Fry, and Kate McKinnon. The New Yorker’s Richard Brody writes, “Yesterday is a movie built to gratify critics by praising what they can do: fight against cultural oblivion. The movie crystallizes the feeling that an obscure or forgotten body of work is the most important art in the world, and that it’s one’s personal mission to bring it the attention and the love that it deserves. Those who can’t do, curate.”

MTRCB Rating: PG

Isabelle

A COUPLE moves to New England with the goal of starting a family. However, their plans are shattered when an evil spirit threatens their lives. Directed by Robert Heydon, the film stars Amanda Crew, Adam Brody, and Zoe Belkin. Variety’s Peter Debruge writes, “Movies like Isabelle require a certain amount of explaining, but mostly, they rely on an elaborate system of rules and conventions established by all the films that have come before, providing a kind of shorthand for the real business at hand…” Rotten Tomatoes gives it a 0% rating.

MTRCB Rating: R-13

Midsommar (Midsummer)

AN American couple’s relationship is on the brink of falling apart. After a family tragedy, the mourning woman invites herself to join the festivities of the midsommar festival in a remote Swedish village. But it turns into a nightmare once the villagers reveal their terrifying agenda. Directed by Ari Aster, the film stars Florence Pugh and Jack Reynor. Tomlis Laffly of www.rogerebert.com writes, “The filmmaker fidgets with that peculiar breathlessness once again throughout Midsommar, a terrifically juicy, apocalyptic cinematic sacrament that dances around a fruitless relationship in dizzying circles.”

MTRCB Rating: R-18

Pan de Salawal

AGUY, a homeless young girl, travels around the country to cure the sick with her healing powers. She befriends Sal, a lonely baker suffering from chronic kidney disease which she is unable to heal. When Sal’s condition worsens, Aguy is left to make a heartbreaking sacrifice. Directed by Che Espiritu, the film stars Bodjie Pascua, Miel Espinosa, and Madeleine Nicolas.

MTRCB Rating: PG

Family History

COMMEDIAN Michael V. returns to the big screen with a comedy-drama about the value of family, life, and marriage. The film is directed by and stars Michael V., who shares the big screen with Dawn Zulueta.

MTRCB Rating: PG

Cinderella: The Enchanted Beginning

AFTER HER father’s death, Cinderella Perrault is mistreated by her stepmother and two stepsisters. Everything changes when she meets the handsome Adam Windsor. Her stepmother feels threatened when she finds out that Adam is in love with Cinderella. Directed by Steven Salfado, the film stars Lauren Perez, Maria Gray, and Adrian De Armas.

MTRCB Rating: PG

BCDA woos German investors for New Clark City

THE Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) is wooing German companies to invest in New Clark City, citing the benefits and opportunities for locators.

During the 2019 Asia Pacific Forum held in Nuremberg, Germany, BCDA Vice-President for Investments Promotion and Marketing Joanna Eileen M. Capones positioned Clark as the first “smart, green and sustainable” city in the Philippines.

She noted that the 9,450-hectare New Clark City will only have 3,500 hectares of buildable areas, leaving 6,000 hectares for green and open spaces.

New Clark City’s Phase 1A, the National Government Administrative Center, is 90% complete after starting its construction more than a year ago. This houses the sports facilities, which will be used for the 30th Southeast Asian Games to be held in the Philippines in November, including a 20,000 stadium; 2,000-seater aquatics center; and an Athletes’ Village.

“Firms can explore opportunities in the mixed-use industrial park, on Information and Communications Technology (ICT), Integrated Transport System, Solid Waste Management System, Gas Distribution System, and the operations and maintenance of the New Clark City sports facilities,” Ms. Capones was quoted as saying in a statement.

Aside from its fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, Ms. Capones said Clark is an attractive location given its accessibility to transportation infrastructure projects of the government, which include the new terminal at the Clark International Airport, which will be operational by 2020; the Manila-Clark Railway; and a cargo railway connecting Subic and Clark, which will be both completed by 2022.

Citing data from the 2019 AHK World Business Outlook Survey, the BCDA noted that the Philippine is still an attractive location for German companies, with 70% of the respondents saying that their business in the country has improved than last year. — Vincent Mariel P. Galang

Got to get away

Midsommar
Directed by Ari Aster
Apollo 11
Directed by Todd Douglas Miller

MIDSOMMAR, Ari Aster’s follow up to his terrific (at least for the first three-fourths) Hereditary, improves on the earlier work this much: instead of situating his narrative in Utah he moves his story to an exotic faraway land (well, Sweden) where the notion of a possibly malevolent conspiracy can be more easily established. Yes, xenophobia, though arguably much of horror literature and film sprouts out of a fear of the Other.

Dani Ardor (Florence Pugh) is having a bad day, to put it mildly: her anthropologist boyfriend Christian (Jack Reynor) is thinking of leaving her but doesn’t have the courage to let her know; her bipolar sister is thinking suicidal/homicidal thoughts; Dani herself (if we are to believe her boyfriend and his friends) seems too wound up to enjoy much of life, clings to Christian too tightly to allow him to breathe much less enjoy his life.

Enter Christian’s classmate Pelle (Vilhem Blomgren) who proposes a trip to his home community in the province of Halsingland (Sweden) for the midsummer — a special celebration that happens only once every 90 years. Dani learns about the outing and wants to come along; Christian reluctantly (and to his friends’ dismay) agrees. Do we know where all this is going? You bet.

Arguably the film’s best scenes occur early on, when the American visitors are wide-eyed and slack-jawed, and the community at first blush seems like a wonderful place to live. Mr. Aster drops little details here there and leaves them uncommented, for us to either freak out quietly to ourselves or miss completely: the camera gliding over a series of runes and painted images (at one point we see the drawing of a woman mutilating her genitals — a reference to Ingmar Bergman’s Cries and Whispers?); a bear sits hunched in a wooden cage (you know that’s not going to end happy); allusions to events later in the film (Pelle explains that the stages of human life are like the seasons of the year, with winter ending at the age of 72. Dani asks: what happens at 72? Death). We’re understandably disturbed, but the sunlight is so relentlessly bright and the Swedish landscape so breathtakingly beautiful (actually the film was shot in Hungary) that we can’t quite find ourselves entirely convinced that we’re being threatened.

Or rather sunlight, landscape, and people are so unfailingly smilingly radiant we know where this is all going.

Pugh’s Dani starts out extreme — after film’s first 10 minutes her life has become so horrifying you wonder if anything worse can happen; Mr. Aster’s answer: “yes and no.” Dani is being less victimized than seduced — selected out of an elaborate (if unexplained) vetting process (though one wonders what would happen if she had lost the maypole dance contest — or was it rigged?). Arguably the story isn’t of a woman to whom “bad things have happened and worse is yet to come,” more like “bad things happen and you have nothing left to lose.” And that’s a trajectory for a character, of sorts. Mr. Aster claims he wrote this story while undergoing a breakup, and you can see where he tries to weigh things more fairly — Dani Ardor is a victim not just of circumstances but of her own intense feelings, while Christian (Allegorical name much?) is less than forthcoming with his own sentiments. But there’s this uneasy sense you have watching events unfold that Mr. Aster does blame the woman, or at least sets things up so when push comes to shove, the woman will be fully justified in doing the wrong thing. Christian — or Mr. Aster — ends up enjoying the fruits of masochistic martyrdom, with a bizarre sex scene (that may or may not be intentionally comical — at this point Mr. Aster seems to have lost control of his film’s tone) included, apparently for our gratuitous enjoyment.

Throw in long lingering shots of gore and mutilated flesh (at some point you find yourself noting how the prosthetics might have been developed). Throw in CGI effects, which at times are suitably eerie (especially when they waver in time to Dani’s breathing), at times seem like gilding a perfectly lovely lily. I did say Mr. Aster improves on Hereditary somewhat (though he hasn’t improved on that earlier film’s initial family dynamics), but has yet in my book to create a fully satisfying horror movie.

Critics have noted how much Mr. Aster has been influenced by Robin Hardy’s 1973 The Wicker Man, and while I’m reluctant to use one film to bash another (Oh, who am I kidding? Do it all the time) I do think it’s instructive to compare their dramatic strategies. Our attitude towards Dani and the community develops linearly: we feel sorry for her and sorrier thereafter; the community for its part starts out creepily happy and only gets creepier.

Anthony Shaffer’s script for the earlier film proposes a more complicated protagonist. Police Sergeant Neil Howie (Edward Woodward) is the authority figure that intrudes on the isolated Hebridean island of Summerisle. Howie is investigating a child’s disappearance; all well and good, all very official. Howie’s investigative approach however raises eyebrows: not only does he question the townspeople’s veracity he questions their hedonistic lifestyle. Sex in the open? Casual nudity? Instructing children in phallic symbols and nonchristian rituals? Howie comes off not just as a prude but an arrogant one, dismissing the people as “all raving mad,” and insisting on the existence of “the true God, whose glory, churches, and monasteries have been built on these islands for generations past.” Spoken to audiences in the early 1970s, when the popularity of alternative religions was on the rise, the words are a provocation, and so was the man; you instinctively felt for the islanders and against the unasked-for intruder.

In the end, Howie’s self-centered paranoia — that it’s all about him and his Christian faith — is proven right; that’s the film’s true dramatic arc, not the revelation that the cult harbors sinister intentions (this and Midsommar belong to that particular subgenre of horror after all). Mr. Shafferer — a skilled dramatist whose works include the classic theatrical mystery thriller Sleuth and screenplays for Murder on the Orient Express and (better yet) Hitchcock’s Frenzy — is better at distracting us from the narrative’s hidden intentions, and choosing the perfect moment to reveal. Mr. Aster shows talent for the odd unsettling shot (early on the camera flips over to depict Dani and her friends in a car creeping across the Swedish landscape overhead) but still needs to work more on his screenplays. Nice try, better luck on the next effort.

SHOOT THE MOON
For the 50th anniversary of the moon landing, there was a re-release of Todd Douglas Miller’s Apollo 11 documentary in several theaters (plus Amazon Prime, Hulu, YouTube, Google Play, and Vudu) that includes spectacular never-before-seen 65 mm color footage of the launch, recovery of the capsule, what happened after (mainly activities aboard the USS Hornet).

Mr. Miller tells the story direct cinema style: no narration or interviews staged for the film, only what’s available on archival footage — most notably Walter Cronkite’s voice acting as the nation’s official storyteller, explaining events onscreen.

Verbally flat but visually the film is a blast, especially early on. Where we’re familiar with the murky black-and-white video footage transmitted by broadcast news (back when there were only three channels in the USA), or the later released shots of space and the various vehicles and spacesuits, the 65 mm is a revelation. Arguably the best dramatically staged launch in a narrative feature is Philip Kaufman’s The Right Stuff, where Atlas rockets shuddered off their icy carapace and lifted themselves into the sky, to the strains of Gustav Holt’s The Planets; this footage if anything surpasses Kaufman, the image stretching across the theater wall, crystal clear and in brilliant color. The PA counts relentlessly down, the watching sundrenched audience is caught holding their collective breaths, the Saturn V — one of the most powerful rockets ever developed — vents a titanic roar as 7,600,000 pounds of force thrust against the launch pad, lifting 300 feet of metal into the air.

The rest of the film may feel anticlimactic as more familiar footage (some of it shot by the astronauts themselves, who have earned honorary membership in the American Society of Cinematographers, and reveal a startlingly deft eye for framing) takes over: 16 mm and still photographs of the second and third stages burning, sending the men into lunar trajectory. When Mr. Armstrong lands the lunar module on the planet’s surface Mr. Miller does resort to a device familiar to video game players and 24 viewers: a clock at one corner of the screen, indicating distance to the ground and remaining seconds of fuel. Even if we know the ultimate outcome (though it’s close) you might find yourself clutching your armrest once in a while for a bit of reassurance.

If you want to learn what the astronauts felt — though we do hear some of their words here — you might want to look elsewhere. Maybe not First Man; Damien Chazelle’s drama does make a dramatic attempt to crack open Neil Armstrong’s hermetically sealed persona, but doesn’t quite go far enough for me, or at least doesn’t quite succeed in evoking the man’s alienated nature (the most revealing sequence, a private moment on the moon, is alas a fictional, disappointingly sentimental conceit). I’m thinking more of For All Mankind (available on the Criterion Channel) journalist-filmmaker Al Reinert’s “documentary” of the Apollo program, really a collage of seven missions cut together into a single epic journey.

No, Mr. Armstrong doesn’t reveal much here either; you notice his absence in the list of narrators Mr. Reinert approached (neither is the loquacious Buzz Aldrin — which is odd, considering). But other astronauts do speak up, and their words reveal an eloquence and depth of feeling and occasional surrealism that adds to the imagery (Ken Mattingly, before the launch: “And here was a kind of strange quiet. You look out and you can see the large part of the state and ocean and this, this thing out here. You have a feeling that it’s alive.” John Swigert: “Everything that I know — my family and my possessions, my friends, my country. It’s all down there on that little thing.” Charles Duke, dreaming about driving the rover across the lunar surface: “…we found this vehicle. It looked just like the rover. The two people in it — they looked like me and John — had been there for thousands of years.”).

The collage effect — the fact that the missions use identical vehicles going through identical stages (three-stage ascent; travel interlude with command and lunar modules linking arms in a hundreds-of-thousands mile dance; lunar module’s descent and ascent; return and parachuted landing); the fact that suited up and helmeted the astronauts could be interchangeable, and even with helmets off one middle-aged clean-shaven Caucasian is difficult to distinguish from another (even their voices tend to run into each other) — actually comes to have a point. The Apollo program can be seen as a single mission — to develop the training, equipment, and techniques to reach the moon and explore its surface — and its people are really a single collective consciousness focused not just on achieving its scientific objectives but savoring the glories visible along the way, the meaning of the achievement. In effect we — all mankind — and not just a select few have touched the lunar surface, have realized how small we can be and how much we can do despite our relative stature in the universe.

To Mr. Miller’s credit he cites Mr. Reinert’s film as an inspiration. Mr. Miller’s own work is not nothing — for the 65 mm footage alone the film is more than worth the price of the ticket. By all means, see the 2019 documentary for the mindblowing imagery, then go watch the 1989 film to listen to their voices (and, Oh hell, why not look at Mr. Chazelle’s biopic while you’re at it) — the more Apollo in my book the better.