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Regional Updates (07/09/20)

Iloilo oil spill clean-up almost done — Coast Guard

CLEAN-UP operations on the oil spill from a power barge off Iloilo City is almost done, according to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Thursday. In a statement in Filipino, the PCG said they are now clearing the last 8,000 liters out of almost 259,000 liters of bunker fuel that spilt at the Iloilo Strait along the coast of Barrio Obrero in Iloilo City. The Iloilo City government, however, reported it will take another five days to clean the Mansaya Creek before displaced residents are allowed to “gradually return home.” A total of 307 families, composed of 1,120 individuals, have been affected and are currently staying in five evacuation centers. The PCG and the Marine Environmental Protection Unit of Western Visayas have been leading the recovery work and installation of spill booms following the July 3 explosion at unit 102 of the power barge owned by AC Energy, Inc. The company has contracted Harbor Star to assist in the cleaning operations. The Ayala-led company has said it is looking into the incident and will be hiring a third-party firm to investigate the cause of the explosion. The PCG is also conducting a probe. It said, “Patuloy ang imbestigasyon ng PCG hinggil sa insidente at kung kakikitaan ng kapabayaan ang may-ari ng power barge, nakahanda ang PCG na magsampa ng kaso laban dito (The investigation is ongoing, and the PCG is ready to file charges if it finds negligence on the part of the barge owner).”

Anti-trafficking team at NAIA temporarily shifts to online operations

THE OFFICES of the task force and inter-agency council against human trafficking at the country’s main gateway in Manila have been temporarily closed after four personnel tested positive for coronavirus. While the facilities undergo disinfection and all personnel are placed on 14-day quarantine, protocols to detect trafficking situations remain in effect, according to Justice Undersecretary Markk L. Perete. “Under these protocols, passengers suspected of being trafficked will still be referred to strict secondary inspection by the BI (Bureau of Immigration),” Mr. Perete told reporters via Viber. He added that the offices will continue to receive reports of trafficking situations through their hotlines and social media. All other units of the Inter-Agency Council Against Trafficking are also operational. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Nationwide round-up

LANDBANK, GSIS offer education-related loans

STATE-RUN Land Bank of the Philippines (LANDBANK) and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), which covers public sector workers, have launched loan programs for educational needs. Under LANDBANK’s P1.5-billion “study now, pay later” program, parents can avail of up to P300,000 to pay for tuition fees. The loans carry an annual fixed interest rate of 5%. The bank, in a statement, said the credit facility is open to incoming students qualified under the admission and retention requirements of a school accredited by the Department of Education (DepEd), Commission on Higher Education, or the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority. Parents or guardians who will apply for the program should have an “established repayment capacity, credit history and good credit standing.”

GSIS
GSIS, on the other hand, is offering an educational and computer loan to members starting August 1. In a briefing on Thursday, Palace Spokesperson Harry L. Roque said there will a P30,000 computer loan and up to P100,000 for tuition fees. Classes for the primary and secondary levels will begin August 24, with the DepEd adopting a “blended learning” system using various mediums to avoid face-to-face school sessions amid the coronavirus outbreak. — Beatrice M. Laforga and Gillian M. Cortez

Bill seeks creation of informal sector database

A MEASURE institutionalizing a national database on the informal sector to ensure they are covered by government assistance during state emergencies has been filed in the Senate. Under Senate Bill No. 1363, the Informal Economy Registration and National Database Act, Senator Juan Edgardo M. Angara proposes to establish a national registry for the informal sector. “The members of the informal economy suffered just as much or even more than their counterparts in the formal economy and yet they missed out on the assistance that was provided by the government,” Mr. Angara said in a statement Thursday. He added the measure is also intended to help government agencies draft a more inclusive policy. The bill defines “informal economy” as all activities by workers and economic units that are not covered or insufficiently covered by laws or formal arrangements. It will cover all enterprises, entrepreneurs and even households. The database will be established by the labor department and the National Economic and Development Authority, in coordination with local government units (LGUs). An informal economy one-stop shop will also be set up by LGUs to process the transactions and business permit applications. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

Getz Healthcare appeals for plasma donors among coronavirus survivors

GETZ HEALTHCARE Philippines is calling on coronavirus infection survivors to donate and participate in the convalescent plasma therapy. Ian Grist, Getz general manager, said survivors should come forward and help save lives. “We’ve seen many discouraged… and equally you see the best of humanity cope through with people stepping up to do what we can,” he told BusinessWorld in an interview. “If somebody has recovered from COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019), then in many ways the least they can do is spend at least an hour of their time to save two people… or encourage people to come forward and help save a life,” he added. “If more of that happens, I think the less fearful people of the Philippines would be about coronavirus.” Getz donated last month two Scinomed Plasma Collection Machines and disposable sets worth P4.3 million to St. Luke’s Medical Center for its Convalescent Plasma Therapy Program, which cuts the time for collection of a donor’s plasma to just 40 minutes from 1.2–1.5 hours. The machines can also collect up to 1,000 milliliters (ml) of convalescent plasma instead of the current 500 ml, allowing treatment for two to three persons in one collection. Getz Healthcare Vice-President for Sales and Marketing Pete D. Miranda, Jr. said five people have already donated plasma using the new machines. He also said that since the machine is specific to plasma collection, it is “more efficient and more comfortable” to both donors and doctors due to the shortened process. Mr. Miranda said they plan to bring in more machines, the first in the country and Southeast Asia. Mr. Grist said that if other hospitals or sectors show interest in the machine, “I’m sure we can come with an arrangement.” Convalescent plasma therapy aims to give COVID-19 patients plasma of survivors that contain the antibodies that would help reduce the viral load of the virus. This treatment was also used in other diseases such as Ebola and Sars, among others. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

1st batch of OFW remains arriving Friday

THE FIRST batch of 44 deceased overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) from Saudi Arabia will arrive Friday, July 10, while another batch of 44 will follow on Monday. Of the first batch, 19 died from the coronavirus disease while the rest from natural causes, according to Palace Spokesperson Harry L. Roque. The government was supposed to bring home the remains of 274 deceased OFWs from Saudi Arabia last week, but faced numerous difficulties including contracting a plane and addressing documentary requirements. In a briefing on Thursday, Labor Secretary Silvestre H. Bello III said they expect 44 more remains to be brought home next week. “We will be doing that until we will bring home all of the OFWs,” he added.— Gillian M. Cortez

Global coronavirus cases rise to more than 12M

GLOBAL coronavirus cases exceeded 12 million on Wednesday, according to a Reuters tally, as evidence mounts of the airborne spread of the disease that has killed more than half a million people in seven months.

The number of cases is triple that of severe influenza illnesses recorded annually, according to the World Health Organization.

Many hard-hit countries are easing lockdowns put in place to slow the spread of the novel virus, while others, such as China and Australia, implement another round of shutdowns in response to a resurgence in infections. Experts say alterations to work and social life could last until a vaccine is available.

The first case was reported in China in early January and it took 149 days to hit 6 million cases. It has taken less than a third of that time — just 39 days — to double to 12 million cases, the tally shows.

There have been more than 546,000 deaths linked to the virus so far, within the same range as the number of yearly influenza deaths reported worldwide. The first death was reported on Jan. 10 in Wuhan, China before infections and fatalities surged in Europe and then later in the United States.

The United States reported a daily global record of 56,818 new COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) infections on July 3 when global cases reached the 11 million mark. The United States recorded a total of 3 million cases on Tuesday, and accounts for more than a quarter of both global cases and global fatalities putting President Donald Trump’s pandemic strategy under scrutiny.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tested positive for coronavirus after downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic. The country has reported between 20,000 and 50,000 new cases daily since July 1. Brazil has more than 1.7 million cases and nearly 68,000 deaths.

The Reuters tally, which is based on government reports, shows the disease is spreading the fastest in Latin America. The Americas account for more than half the world’s infections and almost half its deaths. Brazil and the United States account for around 45% of all new cases since the beginning of July.

India — the country with the third highest number of infections — is battling an outbreak of more than 20,000 new cases each day.

In countries with limited testing capacity, case numbers reflect only a proportion of total infections. Experts caution that official data likely underrepresents both cases and deaths. — Reuters

Japan to pay nightlife establishments to shut

JAPAN has begun requesting some nightlife establishments to suspend their businesses in return for monetary compensation, signaling the nation is stepping up its fight against coronavirus outbreaks amid growing public outcry.

Nighttime businesses such as host clubs that close for at least 10 days will receive 500,000 yen ($4,664) per outlet from the Tokyo government, Asahi newspaper reported Thursday, citing an unidentified official. The city’s Toshima Ward had earlier asked the capital for such financial assistance. In southern Japan, Kagoshima prefecture, where more than 80 infections have been traced to one cabaret club, will pay up to 300,000 yen for night time entertainment establishments to close for two weeks starting Wednesday.

That’s a turnaround from when many such businesses weren’t able to claim subsidies during the state of emergency. Japan has no legal power to force businesses to close, which meant that some of these nighttime establishments stayed open throughout the country’s voluntary shutdown during April and May. With infections now increasing from the network of clubs, pressure is growing for a way to halt the virus’s spread.

In one of the latest cluster outbreaks, Tokyo’s neighboring prefecture of Saitama had 10 workers infected from a single host club, Kyodo News reported. The club’s customers will also be tested, the report said.

“We’d like to use Toshima Ward’s measures as a model case and use the results to create compensation structures for other wards and cities, many of which are also worried about this issue,” Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said Tuesday, national broadcaster NHK reported.

Approaches to mitigating the virus have diverged around the world as countries deal with new flare-ups on a case-by-case basis at a local level. In the US, businesses and social activities are resuming even as states record daily infection numbers in the tens of thousands. In Australia, Melbourne went under stay-at-home orders again this week after recording new daily cases of less than 200 but were a daily record for the state of Victoria.

Japan, which is almost fully reopened for business after a state of emergency in April and May, has refrained from asking for broad shop closures again despite a recent increase in case numbers. The number of new confirmed infections has exceeded 100 in Tokyo for six days in a row, stoking worry that the country may be heading toward another wave of infections. The city broke the streak on Wednesday, with 75 cases being reported.

Officials have maintained that the country can continue to reopen as its medical system is not overwhelmed and most new cases have been traceable. Japan will allow outdoor events of up to 5,000 people to take place from Friday. The government is also slated to begin a travel campaign next month that would give stipends to residents to travel domestically in order to spur regional tourism.

Most of the confirmed infections in recent weeks have been people in their 20s and 30s, who experience lighter symptoms and may not require hospitalization. Many of the new numbers are also from mass testing of night club workers and guests. The initial focus of night club cluster infections was in Shinjuku and its Kabukicho red light district. Since late June, many cases have been traced to host clubs in the bustling Ikebukuro district of Toshima Ward, the Mainichi newspaper reported.

“This is a good development. With the monetary support, many clubs could choose to close,” said Kaori Kohga, the head of the industry association representing hostesses and clubs. “One point of concern is that the money may only go to the business management, not the individual hosts.”

With many of the hosts and hostesses that work at the clubs living paycheck to paycheck, it would be better if initiatives like the Shinjuku Ward — which may give its residents who were infected with the virus 100,000 yen in support funds — and Toshima’s were combined to support the closure of the clubs, Ms. Kohga said. The Shinjuku Ward is yet to decide the eligibility for the funds, according to an official in charge of the support money. — Bloomberg

An economic freefall? Hopefully, not for all

If we go by the statistics, the global economy is in a freefall. For the Philippines, there are obvious cushions.

IMF’s June World Economic Outlook puts this year’s global growth at -4.9%. This time, no regional or country growth drivers could be identified. Advanced economies are contracting by nearly twice at -8.0%. The US economy is declining by 8%. In the Euro Area, negative growth is expected at 10.2%. Emerging markets and developing economies also threaten to pull down global growth. If there is any comfort, emerging and developing Asia is expected to decline by less than 1% at -0.8%.

The IMF chief economist describes the situation as “a crisis like no other.” Global recovery at 5.4% in 2021 is uncertain and poverty reduction stands to suffer the greatest setback since the 1990s.

Equity market crashes, credit tightness, housing slumps, and grim inventory adjustments are becoming familiar. Lay-offs are rampant. The New York Times reports, “a tidal wave of bankruptcies is coming.”

The list of corporate failures is long and getting longer. It includes household names like Hertz, J. Crew, Neiman Marcus, JCPenney, Gold’s Gym, GNC, and Brooks Brothers. From the Us West to East Coast, familiar eating places have been boarded up due to bad business and protest movements.

The virus alone could not have been the cause of this economic malaise.

In a recent The New York Times syndicated column, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argued that in the US, the war against COVID-19 was lost and the economy was devastated when President Trump tweeted liberation.

Trump opposed the lockdowns implemented over Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia. By detesting the pandemic protocols of social distancing and face masks, Americans seem to have surprisingly turned anti-social and anti-science. According to Krugman, US anti-lockdown mass actions were not “spontaneous and grassroots affairs.” Allegations are that these were organized, financed and coordinated by conservative political activists to reopen economies and generate more jobs in time for the November elections. America’s leadership “decided that it was in their political interest to let the virus run wild.”

Where lockdowns have been prematurely lifted, COVID-19 cases have resurged with a vengeance. This is true for the US, Australia, and the United Kingdom. As for Sweden, where lockdowns were not imposed, the New York Times reports a negative outcome of “more death, and nearly equal economic damage.” This suggests that “the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: a failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.”

The Philippines appears likewise to be facing a dark scenario. For 2020, we downgraded the economic growth forecast to negative 2-3.4%. In their latest June assessments, both the IMF and ADB predict a more pessimistic growth outlook at -3.6% and -3.8%, respectively. Forecasts for 2021 see a sharp V recovery. The Government’s 8-9% output growth is way above the IMF’s 6.8% and the ADB’s 6.5%. Only time can tell if this trajectory will be affirmed but we have our doubts; a U-shaped recovery seems to be likelier.

Two credit rating agencies also share these downbeat projections. Moody’s growth forecast for the Philippines is -2.5%. It cites declines in external trade flows and the debilitating impact of travel restrictions on both tourism and exports. S&P has a more pessimistic projection of -3%, owing to the country’s long and tight lockdowns.

Singapore-based DBS Bank expects the Philippines to slump by as much as 4%. DBS points to the sharp deterioration in consumption and investment in the first quarter of 2020.

For this reason, the country’s goal to move up to middle-income status under the World Bank classification is not expected to be achieved this year. Last year, it was the budget delay that stunted growth.

But after a more careful weighing of things that matter, the Philippines is not in a freefall. We have cushions in place.

While we are more likely to suffer from a recession this year, over the last 20 years, we have built strong buffers to soften the blows.

Despite funding issues of the economic recovery program, significant positive outcomes can result from an authorized realignment of the budget to crucial activities. For example, the budget can be realigned more to pandemic mitigation to minimize fear and uncertainty. This will foster more economic activities. We can prioritize social safety nets to cushion the hit on consumption and impoverishment. Focus can be put on business support to MSMEs, to retain jobs and income. The Government has these elements in its recovery plan.

According to the IMF, the Philippine policy response is appropriate.

Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez’s refusal to borrow and finance the supplemental budget suggests clear fiscal responsibility. In doing so, the Constitution is upheld. These decisions strengthen fiscal and debt sustainability. In turn, long-term prospects of economic growth are ensured. Both investors and financial markets who ostensibly define external destiny of economies, will count this decisiveness as additional points to bolster our creditworthiness.

This is not to say we are oblivious to the red flags.

The high unemployment rate of 17.7% in April 2020 is truly a concern. With the lockdown depressing tax collections by 16%, this year, the deficit to GDP ratio is expected to be more than twice higher. But the Philippines has succeeded in securing the support of development partners to finance the regular budget especially for infra and the pandemic response. This should approximately align the budget with its financing in the face of weak revenue efforts.

We also have the complementary support of monetary authorities in our favor. The Bangko Sentral has laid the groundwork for conducive liquidity and credit conditions; a strong transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bank and financial market resiliency; and a more pandemic-friendly and inclusive digital platform of payments and settlements.

At this time, other freefall features obvious during the Global Financial Crisis are not apparent. Then, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz was concerned that expansionary monetary policy inflated equity prices. This is not the case in the Philippines. While the BSP’s recent liquidity injection could have presumably spilled over to stocks, this seems to have been kept back to its term deposit facility. Of course, more excessive infusions of liquidity — with low interest, weak demand for credit, and restrained consumer spending — can only lead to some mispricing of risks and financial stability issues.

Moreover, the bank illiquidity and insolvency which were so common in 2008-09 are yet to be seen. The capital base of Philippine banks continues to be in excess of both the BSP and Bank for International Settlements standards. Non-performing loan ratios remain muted.

We see however, possible system shocks as bank clients deleverage and become even more risk averse. Households and corporates, affected by lack of economic opportunities, will have a hard time with debt servicing. Aggregate demand is bound to shrink. It would be very challenging to export our way to recovery as the global economy remains in the freezer.

No freefall, but we face a conditional proposition.

We recently had the opportunity to speak via Zoom before the UP School of Economics Alumni Association. We affirmed that the Philippines has all it takes to recover and grow. But we cautioned against four handicaps.

First, there is the headwind of inefficient public health management ± among them, lapses and delays in testing, tracing and treating.

Second, there is the danger of uncoordinated public policies that must be consistent and complementary across all agencies and branches of Government. We really must heal as one.

Third, we have a risk of “democracy deficit” when public support is not rallied as government actions may not be believed to be credible or consistent.

Finally, we cannot discount the uncertainties of the times due to the pandemic itself — these are uncertainties best addressed by science, research and medicine.

If we allow these four to run wild, the global freefall might hit us all.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Philippine education in crisis

More than 9 million students in both private and public schools had enrolled online for schoolyear 2020-2021 as the month of June ended. The resumption of K-12 classes is scheduled for Aug. 24 this year, hence the Department of Education’s (DepEd) reserving the entire month of June for registration, and later extending it till July.

The turnout of 9 million surpassed the expectations of Education Secretary Leonor Briones. Presumably because DepEd was aware of the technological, financial, and other differences among the millions of Filipino families with school-age children, Secretary Briones expected many of them to forego their enrollment during the COVID-19 public health emergency. Some 5 million children will most probably not enroll precisely because of those issues.

As Bishop Roberto Mallari, who chairs the Episcopal Commission on Catechesis and Catholic Education of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines pointed out during a May interview with media, many families “are not prepared financially [and] technologically” for online learning. Some can’t afford the computers or even smart phones needed, or to subscribe to Wi-Fi providers and master the use of the technology involved within a short two months. As some news reports have noted, some teachers are similarly unprepared, either because they don’t have the devices needed and can’t afford them, and/or are also as technologically challenged as their students.

There is also the problem of connectivity. Despite the Department of Information and Communication Technology’s (DICT) pledge to make Wi-Fi available throughout the country, the connections are still either too weak or nonexistent not only in those remote localities from where students have had to walk for kilometers and cross rivers to the nearest school during pre-pandemic times, but even in some urban areas.

The economic and class divide of Philippine society has long been a fundamental issue in Philippine education. Students from rich families based in the cities and some highly urbanized municipalities have more access to usually private and expensive schools, while those from poor families are plagued by a lack of classrooms and teachers, and almost inaccessible public schools with limited resources that teachers themselves are often forced to provide.

But it seems that even the former have not really benefited as much as expected from their privileged status. A 2018 study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) tested a representative population of 15-year-old Filipino students and found them last in reading comprehension among 79 countries. The students surveyed, in a country that claims 98% literacy, hardly fared any better in science and mathematics either: they were a poor second to the last at 78th place.

It has been argued that the PISA findings are the results of the fact that those tested mostly came from public schools and therefore do not provide any indication of the alleged superiority of private institutions. But they nevertheless confirm the reality of the perennial crisis of Philippine education evident in the quality of its products. Many Filipinos can’t really read or even do simple arithmetic. Science is alien territory for the superstitious many, and mathematics a much despised subject.

A 2017 study by an international news website also found that Filipinos aged 16 to 64 are the third most ignorant of key public issues among the citizens of 36 countries. That finding is validated by, among other indicators, the epidemic of fact- and logic-challenged posts that appear in social media, and by the popularity rather than issue-based results of Philippine elections.

There is, indeed, an education class divide between poor and rich students in the Philippines. There is also the same divide between poor and rich countries. But even a less developed country can still invest heavily on education if it is its first priority. The 2018 PISA results were dominated by Chinese students from four less affluent regions of China, who bested their counterparts in the Western countries.

The Philippines just doesn’t invest as much on education as its neighbors Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia and even Laos. The biggest share of the annual budget goes to education as mandated by the 1987 Constitution, but the 3.4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) appropriated for it is still much less than the United Nations standard of at least 6%. In 2019, Congress even cut the DepEd’s proposed 2020 budget despite the need for more classrooms and teachers.

It need hardly be said that how much a country spends on education helps decide the quality of school facilities and its teachers, and therefore the quality of its students. Despite the digital age, many public schools still lack not only computers but even books, desks and blackboards. There is also a shortfall in the supply of public school teachers, due in part to their being among the lowest-paid among government employees despite their qualifications and many responsibilities.

It need hardly be said that the dismal showing of Filipino students in reading comprehension, mathematics, and science has to be addressed. The ignorance and contempt for learning evident in many sectors of the population are in conflict with the imperatives of national development and the democratization of Philippine society and politics. Citizens who know little or nothing, or are misinformed about the most pressing issues, cannot intelligently make the decisions on which democratic, honest and effective governance depends.

The sorry state of education helps explain the fragility of what passes for democracy in the Philippines. It is of course possible, although never explicitly stated, that keeping much of the population ignorant best serves the interests of the political oligarchy that rules the country. A dumb constituency is after all the surest guarantee of keeping ineffectual and corrupt governments in power.

This is the already troubled and troubling context in which the COVID-19 pandemic has forced the entire educational system to shift from traditional face-to-face classroom learning to online, “blended,” and “flexible” methods.

As expected, the better-endowed and equipped schools are adopting various ways to address the problems involved. In higher education, the leading universities, such as the University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila University, and De La Salle University are also developing their respective versions of remote learning methods to best serve their students and to train their faculty in them. But at both the K-12 and much of the tertiary level, there are still the differences in capability, resources and training between such institutions and the majority.

To the longstanding problems of Philippine education have thus been added the difficulties posed by the shift to online teaching. These difficulties boil down to the possibility that the schools may not effectively impart the literacy and numeracy skills required at the basic level, and, at the collegiate level, the respect for and commitment to knowledge and the critical outlook that authentic tertiary education is supposed to impart to the citizens of a democracy. As things now stand, the crisis of Philippine education is likely to reach its most acute stage in these extraordinary times because of the public health crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as a less than capable system flounders in the sea of troubles unleashed by the necessary shift to remote learning.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Enough with the lockdown. Time to get our country running again

Perhaps the summer heat is beginning to fry people’s brains. Take a family living in the same house. They drive to a restaurant using the same car. Yet when they arrive are made to sit in different tables.

How could this possibly be backed by science?

The restaurant owners are not to be blamed. They’re acting under penalty of government closure. And yet, for a country heavily reliant on the service industry and supposedly encouraging entrepreneurs, the unnecessarily heavy regulations being placed on our businesses is nothing short of insane.

This amidst an economy facing a possible 2nd quarter GDP shrinkage by 5.7-6.7%. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno was quoted as saying the “negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis is harsher than what was originally thought.”

He’s wrong. COVID-19 didn’t wreck our economy. The government imposed lockdown did.

A lockdown, by the way, whose legal basis no one seems to know (“What is the legal basis of the lockdown?,” July 3).

To date, we’re in the 117th day of “quarantine” (ironically, a term that before this year always referred to isolating the sick and never the healthy). It’s said to be the world’s longest. But to what end and purpose?

To flatten the mythical curve? Prevent our hospitals being overwhelmed? To wait until a vaccine arrives? Until there are no more deaths? Such ambiguous, purely subjective reasons, are simply unhelpful and utterly non-conforming to reality.

Lockdowns don’t work. It’s a placebo that at best delays what needs to be confronted with better governance policies. Even the much admired UP Study (“COVID-19 Forecasts in the Philippines,” May 20) shows that coronavirus cases and deaths were still increasing in the National Capital Region even with an ECQ maintained.

Ignore total positive cases that the media loves to trumpet. The important number is with deaths.

The week June 29 — July 5, for example, saw 42 supposedly coronavirus deaths. Much maligned Cebu City actually had three days (July 1-3) of no recorded deaths. Compare that with our 12,000 total weekly deaths from all causes nationally.

But that’s not all: July 5 data reveals 99.4% of our active cases are either asymptomatic or mild. In the unfortunate circumstance a person is among that small 0.6% of severe or critical coronavirus cases, the likelihood of dying is just 4%.

Recoveries rose by 92% (489) and daily deaths fell by 86% from April 12 to July 5. Our death rate steadily lowers to 2.8%, a drop of nearly 60% from March-April. Our hospital COVID-19 designated beds and ICU occupancy rates maintain a stable 40-42%.

What is the point of all this? The point is that people will always be faced with risks, that risks are ever constant, that the point of growing up and adulthood is being able to make the proper calculations and the use of judgment in deciding how to confront those ever present risks.

And right now, apparently our government’s judgment in the face of all those facts is to lock people up in their own homes and make inconsistent unnecessary rules, such as allowing only 50% seating for hotels and restaurants while imposing a 10% attendance limit for Catholic Masses.

Even dolphins show greater common sense than this.

And now, after months of being continually terrified about the coronavirus (stoked by a fear mongering media), the government suddenly tells the people (through the presidential spokesman) that: “We don’t have an alternative but to really open the economy. If we do not reopen, we may be alive but we will die because we do not have livelihoods.”

But that was true four months ago. So why not then?

What exacerbated this situation was the conduct of a national pandemic discussion based not only on hypothetical models but — worse — meme logic.

An example of which goes like this: “Stay home. The virus does not discriminate.” But it does.

And the fact that our policymakers refuse to recognize this had devastating consequences not only for our economy but also for our youth’s education.

The coronavirus reserves its serious attacks on the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. And our own data bears this out: June 30 reports that while cases are spread out across the ages, nevertheless, 64.5% of all deaths were from those of 60 years old and up; 62% of the deaths were males, with most over 70 years of age.

For those 29 years old and below? Out of the 1,266 deaths, 59 died. And even with the latter, note the Italian national health authority’s findings that more than 99% of those who died from the coronavirus were suffering from previous medical conditions.

And yet our demographic (53% of our population being 0-24 years old, 0-54 is 90%; with a median age of 23.7) could have allowed our economy to keep functioning while allowing our medical resources to focus on that identifiable vulnerable group.

As well as keep our schools open.

But no. For who knows what reason.

 

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

https://www.facebook.com/jigatdula/

Twitter @jemygatdula

School-closing costs are crushing children and parents

By Michael R. Strain

THERE are lots of compelling reasons for schools to reopen in the fall. Children need the educational, social, and psychological benefits that a normal, five-day school week provides. Working parents need relief. Teachers and school staffers need the work. Here’s another: The global economy will suffer along with the future earnings of today’s students if they don’t.

A consensus estimate among economists is that an additional year of schooling increases wages by around 9%. If last spring and this fall should be written off, then keeping the schools closed may lead to a significant reduction in future earnings for today’s students. My back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that represents a loss of over $30,000 per decade in earnings for a typical worker who graduated high school but didn’t attend college. The longer schools are closed, the larger the hit future earnings will take.

Of course, this is a simplification. Virtual learning isn’t the same as no learning, and the rate of return on an additional year of schooling will vary a lot from student to student. But the basic point holds: Keeping kids out of school is likely to take a significant sum of money out of their pockets when they get older and go to work.

And because virtual learning is closer to no learning for many lower-income households — due, for example, to less reliable internet access, home environments less conducive to studying, and parents whose jobs make it harder for them to stay at home and monitor schooling activity throughout the day — keeping schools closed this fall would likely reduce the future earnings of today’s poorer kids the most.

The economic damage from so many young people receiving an inadequate education adds up. A World Bank economics working paper notes that in mid-April, 192 countries had closed all schools and universities, affecting 1.5 billion youths, or 90% of the world’s learners. To estimate the global economic effects of the shutdown, the authors assumed a four-month closure and, conservatively, that only 10% of students suffer learning loss from virtual learning. They found that future global output and incomes will be trillions of dollars lower due to the shutdown, with a loss equivalent to 15% of future GDP. If schools are closed for another four months this fall, the losses will grow much larger.

Parents’ economic outcomes will suffer if schools are closed in the fall, as well. If schools don’t reopen, some parents, including many low-income parents, will have to decide between facilitating home learning for their kids and going to work at all. Parents who can continue to work remotely will effectively be on a part-time schedule. Many employers are going to be less and less forgiving of the need to juggle parenting and work.

To some degree, the negative effects of working from home while looking after kids are cumulative. This spring, many parents were in survival mode, doing what needed to be done — and only that — each day. But if four months of virtual working and virtual learning happening under the same roof turns into 10, a cohort of parents of young kids in their prime working years will increasingly miss out on the opportunity to do longer-term, deeper, creative work. This will hurt their careers. It will hurt the overall economy as well, as around one-quarter of workers have a child under the age of 13.

The US is stumbling through the pandemic. When it comes to reopening schools, the absence of strategic thinking on a nationwide scale is on stark display. The plan is to have an open economy but return to virtual learning? You can’t have the former if you have the latter. This wishful thinking is destructive.

The US should be prioritizing what is most important to society. At the top of the list should be children’s futures and current livelihoods. Socializing in bars should be at the bottom of the list. And yet the decisions of mayors and governors to allow frivolities means that the US will have to cut back where it hurts the most, not the least.

Measures should be taken to protect teachers and students when schools reopen. But even with those measures, open schools would likely increase the transmission rate of the virus, so other steps should be taken to slow the spread. Washington should be providing leadership and guidance to local schools districts on how to reopen, along with funding to help them do so safely.

Whether schools reopen this fall is a test of the US’s seriousness as a nation. This is one test that children are counting on adults to pass.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Bienvenido Marañon grateful for opportunities with Ceres-Negros

Bienvenido Marañon said he is very thankful for the many opportunities presented to him at Ceres-Negros FC. (Ceres-Negros FC website)

A STEADY and notable fixture in the local club football scene in the past half decade, Spanish striker Bienvenido Marañon said he is very thankful for the many opportunities presented to him at Ceres-Negros FC, which unfortunately this week announced that it is talks to sell the franchise and is set to exit the Philippines Football League (PFL).

Joined the “Busmen” in 2015, Mr. Marañon, 34, has been a key contributor for the club since, helping Ceres dominate the PFL where it is the three-time defending league champion.

This is apart from the many memorable performances he had, and victories he was part of, with the team in various international competitions.

For him, his stay with Ceres has been mutually beneficial as it also did a lot in helping him further chart a steady professional career in football.

“I’m very grateful to our boss (Leo Rey Yanson), also to Ceres. I didn’t expect that everybody will know me but after these few years especially to be in Ceres, everything was getting better every single year until right now that everybody know me,” said Mr. Marañon in the recent episode of Tiebreaker Vods’ CPT Crossover podcast, where he and teammate OJ Porteria were guests.

“We play a lot of games and that for me is nice especially when we come from the Philippines. They say that we are the best team in Southeast Asia and I’m lucky to be part of this team,” he added.

Last year was pretty solid for Mr. Marañon and the Busmen that had them winning a double locally, taking the PFL league title and the Copa Paulino Alcantara.

They also played in continental tournaments in 2019, competing in the preliminary stage of the AFC Champions League as well as in the AFC Cup where they reached the ASEAN Zone semifinals.

In 2020, Ceres got off to a strong start, making it all the way to the playoff round of the AFC Champions League. In the AFC Cup it is in good standing with seven points in Group G built on a record of two victories and a draw.

Then came the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which Mr. Marañon said really disrupted everything for them and something he laments.

Making it more regretful for him was the fact that they were angling for another great run for the rest of the year, anchored on what he described as one of the best teams for Ceres.

“You know why I’m very sad at this time? I’m very sad because the team this year that Ceres have for me is one of the best teams that we have ever had. Now this year, we are playing really good, we start really good. I have too much confidence in this team,” he said.

The woes continued for Ceres after it announced on Wednesday that it was in the process of talking to investors who will be taking over the management and ownership of the club in preparation for the PFL and the resumption of the AFC Cup.

It cited as one of the reasons the financial toll that COVID-19 has had on the team, making it really hard to maintain a competitive squad.

Ceres though assured that it is doing everything it can to help in the smooth transition to the new owners even as the Philippine Football Federation said the spot of Ceres in the ongoing AFC Cup will not be affected with the change of ownership.

Moving forward as the football community awaits for activities to resume on a wider scale, Mr. Marañon is hoping that gains in football would be sustained to further the growth of the sport in the country.

Among the things he wants to see, he said, is introducing football to kids so as to develop in them the love for the sport at an early stage.

“We have to start [with] the kids. I’m sure I tell you if we start from the kids, after a few years I’m sure that the football will be the same level like basketball here,” he said. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

It’s not all fun and games for NBA at Disney complex

TORONTO — Disney World’s Magic Kingdom Park is billed as the “The Most Magical Place On Earth,” but National Basketball Association players arriving at the Florida resort on Wednesday to prepare for the restart of their COVID-19 season can expect something more dreary than fun.

Living for months in a quarantined bubble designed to shield them from Florida’s surge in novel coronavirus cases the Disney ESPN Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando will be home for some of the planet’s best-paid athletes.

Twenty-two teams began arriving on Tuesday, with staggered check-ins continuing through Thursday.

Upon arrival players will be quarantined in their hotel rooms for 36–48 hours. They will be limited to room service and must pass two tests 24 hours apart before being allowed to join teammates and begin training for the July 30 restart.

For some it will mark the beginning of a grinding three-month stay should their teams make it all the way to the Finals, which are scheduled to start Sept. 30 and could run as late as Oct. 13.

While spending three months inside Disney World might be a dream come true for millions of children, for many NBA players it will be an endurance challenge of daily testing, dealing with 113 pages of strict health and safety protocols, high-tech monitoring and separation from family and friends.

Players and coaches will all be required to wear face masks, along with a “proximity alarm” that will notify the wearer if they are within six feet of another person for more than five seconds.

The grumbling has already started. The Denver Nuggets’ Troy Daniels took to Instagram on Tuesday to post a picture of his first night meal, which more resembled a tray of airline food than the carefully prepared feast normally served to pampered athletes.

All this is happening as COVID-19 cases spike in Florida, where on Tuesday more than four dozen hospitals across 25 of 67 counties reported their Intensive Care Units had reached full capacity.

More than 130,000 Americans have died from the illness.

Cathal Kelly, sport columnist for Canada’s national newspaper the Globe and Mail, likened the NBA plan of coming together in Florida to “solving your radiation issue by huddling in Chernobyl.”

“This should work,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver told Fortune Brainstorm Health. “But we shall see.

“I’m confident based on the positive cases we are seeing from our players and the general public around the country that it will be safer on this campus than off this campus, in part because we are going to be doing daily testing.”

Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber made the very same “no safer place” remark as his league prepared to resume play on Wednesday, also in Orlando.

Like the NBA, MLS has set up operations at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex. But it has not been without bumps.

FC Dallas was forced out of the tournament on Monday after 10 players tested positive and several matches postponed or rescheduled. — Reuters

UFC 251 on Abu Dhabi ‘Fight Island’ this weekend

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo, Senior Reporter

THE ULTIMATE Fighting Championship returns with another offering amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as it holds “UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal” on Sunday (Manila time) at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

UFC 251 at the “UFC Fight Island” will be headlined by the welterweight title clash between reigning champion Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman and challenger Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal.

It also has the UFC staying resilient after getting back into action following a forced break early this year because of COVID-19.

Since coming back in the swing of things in May, the UFC has staged eight successful events both in Jacksonville, Florida, and in its APEX facility in Las Vegas, something it will try to extend in Abu Dhabi for its next four live events, beginning with UFC 251.

For local combat sports analyst Nissi Icasiano, while UFC events since its resumption have not all been “home runs” still what it is trying to achieve is something to be commended.

“Everyone in the sports industry is on survival mode, and many have been exploring options in an effort to stay afloat. Fortunately for the UFC, they found a way. They capitalized on the lax restrictions on competitive sports in Florida, they worked closely with the Nevada State Athletic Commission for their events last month, and now they found a spot in the Middle East to help accommodate international fighters who were unable to enter the United States due to travel restrictions imposed to combat the pandemic,” said Mr. Icasiano in an online interview with BusinessWorld.

“I can’t say that I am fully satisfied [with all of its events], to be honest. But like what I said in the past, with their main source of income severely truncated, they now face a different battle as they adapt to a new norm. I can’t think of an MMA company with the best resources, the right people, and a more conducive platform to champion the sport during these times other than the UFC. The good thing about it is that it could be a blueprint, so other promotions can finally resume their operations. Of course, the UFC is threading on thin ice with what they are doing. Everyone made a valid point, considering the potential hazards the virus can inflict. But then again, new measures are never perfect in its first try,” added the analyst, who is also a co-host on Tiebreaker Vods’ The Hit List podcast.

For UFC 251, Mr. Masvidal (35-13) is stepping in as a replacement opponent for original challenger Gilbert Burns, who was ruled a no-go after testing positive for COVID-19 last week.

Despite such being the case, Mr. Icasiano said Gamebred’s fight with Mr. Usman (16-1) is hardly a short change for MMA fans.

“It’s the fight that everybody wanted. These two have been going at it on social media and on television for a long time. And even before Gilbert Burns got the title shot, Jorge Masvidal’s name was already at the top of the list. Of course, I pray for Gilbert’s full recovery. But on the flip side, it made a way for Usman and Masvidal to finally settle their score,” said Mr. Icasiano of the headlining fight.

Also part of UFC 251 is the featherweight title clash between champion Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, bantamweight Petr Yan against Jose Aldo, women’s strawweight Jessica Andrade versus Rose Namajunas, and women’s flyweight Amanda Ribas versus Paige VanZant.

UFC 251 will be broadcast on FOX Sports.

Ryder Cup postponed due to coronavirus

TORONTO — This year’s Ryder Cup, which was scheduled to be held in late September in Wisconsin, has been postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, organizers said on Wednesday.

The hotly contested biennial team competition between the United States and Europe, known for its raucous, partisan crowds, was originally scheduled for Sept. 25–27 at Whistling Straits. It will now be held Sept. 24–26, 2021.

The Presidents Cup, which pits a 12-man team from the US against international players from outside Europe, was also postponed a year and will played Sept. 22-25, 2022 at Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina, organizers said.

Organisers said medical experts and public authorities in Wisconsin were not able to provide certainty that conducting an event responsibly with thousands of spectators in September would be possible.

“As disappointing as this is, our mandate to do all we can to safeguard public health is what matters most,” PGA of America Chief Executive Seth Waugh said in a statement.

“The spectators who support both the US and European sides are what make the Ryder Cup such a unique and compelling event and playing without them was not a realistic option.”

The Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup are the latest events on a ravaged golf calendar to be hit by the coronavirus outbreak, which already forced three of the sport’s four majors to be postponed while the British Open was cancelled.

“These two premier international team events are lifted by the spirit of the fans,” said PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan.

“With the uncertainty of the current climate, we fully support the Ryder Cup’s decision to delay a year in order to ensure fans could be a part of the incredible atmosphere in Wisconsin, and the delay of next year’s Presidents Cup was the right decision in order to allow for that option.” — Reuters

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