ONE Championship stages the second iteration of its “Inside The Matrix” event in Singapore today with Filipino flyweight Ramon Gonzales taking part and looking to make his way back to the winning track.
Bicol native Gonzales, 33, is currently sporting a 3-3 record at ONE since being part of the promotion in 2015 and is vying to improve his record above the .500 mark in his fight against Indonesia’s Eko Roni Saputra.
Mr. Gonzales saw his winning streak stopped at three in November last year when he lost by unanimous decision to China’s Hexigetu.
While the ongoing coronavirus pandemic made it tougher to train, admitted Mr. Gonzales, he did not allow it to get in the way of putting in as much as he can in preparing for the fight with a grappler like Mr. Saputra.
“During the lockdown, I was able to train every day, together with my students, which are the Uchi-deshi. We used the time we couldn’t go out to stay in the gym, focus on our skills, and train,” said the three-time Kyokushin Karate Champion.
He went on to say that he is expecting an exciting fight and vowed to give fans what they want.
“I haven’t met Mr. Saputra personally, but I already watched his fights, and I think he is a great fighter. I’ll make sure that when it’s time to enter the Circle, I am ready. I promise my fans that I will show them the best of me this time.”
ONE: Inside The Matrix II is headlined by the world welterweight title clash between champion Kiamrian Abbasov of Kyrgyzstan and challenger James Nakashima of the United States. It also features the lightweight battle of title contenders Timofey Nastyukhin of Russia and Pieter Buist of The Netherlands.
It will be shown live here over One Sports at 8:30 p.m. with an encore telecast at 11 p.m. on TV5 on Nov. 7. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo
UNITED City Football Club (FC) takes on Stallion-Laguna FC on Friday looking to solidify its hold of the top spot in the ongoing Philippines Football League (PFL) tournament.
League-leading with nine points from an unblemished 3-0-0 record, United City (formerly Ceres-Negros FC) tries to make it four wins in as many matches in its 8 p.m. collision with the Stallions (0-1-1) at the Philippine Football Federation (PFF) National Training Center in Cavite, and move closer to another league crown.
It was dominant in its last game on Tuesday, lording it over Maharlika Manila FC, 10-0.
OJ Porteria and Robert Lopez Mendy each had a hat-trick with Mike Ott adding a brace in their latest win.
Bienvenido Marañon and United City skipper Stephan Schrock accounted for the two other goals in their victory, which pushed them two points clear of second-running Kaya FC-Iloilo (2-1-0).
Mr. Ott opened the scoring spree for United City in their last match, finding the bottom of the net in the 16th minute.
The team doubled its lead at 2-0 a few minutes later, care of Mr. Maranon (19’).
Mr. Schrock joined the scoring parade in the 33rd minute, followed by Mr. Porteria in the 39th minute to make it a 4-0 lead for United City at the break.
The United City juggernaut continued in the second half with Mr. Lopez Mendy connecting three consecutive times in the 49th, 57th, and 63rd minute to make it a commanding 7-0 lead. Messrs. Porteria (71’ and 75’) and Ott (73’) completed the double-digit rout thereafter.
“The best way to show respect to the opponent is giving it our all from 1 to 90, and that’s what we did,” said Mr. Schrock post-match as he talked about the mindset they have as a team in the tournament.
Meanwhile, out to crash United City’s party is Stallion-Laguna, which is coming off a 1-1 draw against Kaya in its last game.
The Stallions turned things around in the second half against Kaya on Tuesday, making up for the goal they gave up early on in the contest through an equalizer by Jhan-Jhan Melliza in the 80th minute.
The team was happy with its improved performance, something it hopes to extend against United City.
Also taking the field on Friday are Kaya versus Mendiola FC 1991 at 9 a.m. and Maharlika against the Azkals Development Team at 4:30 p.m.
The ongoing season of the PFL is being done in a bubble setup for two weeks.
The team on top in the end will be crowned as champion.
The PFF National Training Center is the official game venue while Seda Nuvali in Santa Rosa, Laguna, houses the teams and the league for the duration of the tournament.
During the tournament, all clubs are asked to strictly adhere to health and safety protocols prescribed for the league.
PFL matches can be viewed over the PFL Facebook page. PFL YouTube Channel, 1Play Sports, EXPTV Channel and www.PFLTV.ph. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo
BARCELONA — Barcelona earned a far from convincing 2-1 win at home to a depleted Dynamo Kyiv on Wednesday as Lionel Messi scored a penalty for the third Champions League game in a row with the Spaniards maintaining their winning start to the group stage.
The Argentine, who had also scored spot-kicks in wins over Group G opponents Ferencvaros and Juventus, tucked away a penalty in the fifth minute while Gerard Pique netted in the second half, glancing in a fine cross from Ansu Fati.
Dynamo — who were missing six players due to COVID-19 positives, which also afflicted five members of staff — gave a decent account of themselves and spurned a couple of chances to equalise as well as having a goal from a corner ruled out due to the ball going out of play.
They deservedly pulled a late goal back in the 75th minute when Viktor Tsygankov slid the ball into the net, pouncing on a rebound after Barca keeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen could only parry a shot from Benjamin Verbic.
The victory put Barca on the verge of a place in the knockout stages, leaving them top on nine points after three games, with Juventus second on six and Dynamo and Ferencvaros with a point each.
Barca coach Ronald Koeman was visibly anxious on the sidelines and did not attempt to gloss over the sloppy performance. — Reuters
THE National Basketball Players Association is close to a deal that would start the 2020-21 National Basktetball Association (NBA) season on Dec. 22 with a reduced schedule of 72 games per team, according to ESPN.
The Athletic previously reported the possibility of a 72-game season that would start just before Christmas. According to ESPN, the NBA’s board of governors and the NBPA were holding separate meetings on the matter Thursday with the expectation that the start date would be approved.
The upcoming regular season, if agreed upon, would be 10 games shy of a typical NBA regular-season schedule.
The players association is expected to take a vote among team player representatives at some point Thursday, according to the ESPN report. A salary escrow in the vicinity of 18% was expected to be agreed upon for the next two years.
The NBA draft is scheduled for Nov. 18, with training camps likely to open Dec. 1.
The projected start date would leave the possibility that the regular season would finish before the start of the 2021 Summer Olympics, which are set to begin on July 23 in Tokyo.
There is no indication when or if games in the 2020-21 season would be played in front of fans. The NBA lost $800 million in ticket sales during the just-concluded season because of the ongoing pandemic, ESPN reported on Oct. 28.
The league also reportedly lost $400 million in sponsorship and merchandise plus $200 million in “net negative impact” from China due to fallout from then-Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey expressing support for Hong Kong protestors against the Beijing government.
If agreed upon, the Dec. 22 start date would leave just seven weeks before the opening of the new season. The deal being decided upon would override the original promise from the league to give players an eight-week notice before the start of the season.
The NBA became the first pro league to suspend play amid the COVID-19 pandemic, doing so on March 11. The league moved into a bubble in late July at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex near Orlando to finished out an abbreviated regular season.
The Los Angeles Lakers won the title during the most peculiar of seasons, defeating the Miami Heat in a six-game NBA Finals that was played only in front of the players’ family and close friends.
The Lakers earned their deciding 106-93 victory over the Heat on Oct. 11, just 11 days shy of making it a full year from when they started their regular-season schedule with a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. — Reuters
TOM Brady and Drew Brees could change places yet again as the top two touchdown (TD) passers in NFL history.
The host Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints could change places atop the NFC South standings.
Much will be at stake when the two most prolific active quarterbacks in the NFL lead their respective teams against each other Sunday night in Tampa.
Brady and the Buccaneers (6-2) lead the South by a half-game over Brees and the Saints (5-2), who prevailed 34-23 when these teams met in the season opener.
Both quarterbacks had two touchdown passes last week, leaving Brady with 561 for his career, one more than Brees. The Saints quarterback had leapfrogged Brady on the all-time list last Sunday with a pair of scoring passes at Chicago.
The two future Hall of Famers could trade places multiple times Sunday night and beyond.
“I’d say it’s pretty cool,” Brees said. “I’m just laser-focused on the job that is right in front of me and the opportunity that we have this week. Winning the football game is the most important thing, and however we can get that done.
“We both play on very good teams for very good organizations, with great coaches and great systems, great players around us. (I’m) just grateful for the opportunity to compete, grateful that we’re in the situation where we’re battling to win the division.”
The Saints intercepted Brady twice and sacked him three times in the opener.
“I think we did some things well, we got the turnovers,” New Orleans coach Sean Payton said. “I didn’t think we played very well in some other areas when you watch the tape. They’re playing with confidence.”
New Orleans has won four consecutive games and Tampa Bay has won three in a row. The Saints have won their last four meetings against the Buccaneers.
Since the opener, Brady has completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,950 yards and 18 touchdowns with two interceptions. He has rushed for one touchdown in that span.
The Buccaneers activated wide receiver Antonio Brown from the suspended list earlier in the week. They signed the former Steeler, Raider and Patriot on Oct. 27.
“He’ll have his role,” Bucs coach Bruce Arians said. “It could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays. I wouldn’t anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we’ll just see how it goes.”
Arians said Brown was “full speed” in his first workout with his new team.
“Everybody else was walking, but he was going full speed—that’s him anyway,” Arians said. “Guys were helping him (and) he’s got a really good handle on what we’re trying to get done ‘formationally’ and everything. It was great interaction with all the guys and it was a good start to the week.”
Tampa Bay also has plenty of receivers with Pro Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who was limited in practice Wednesday because of a finger injury, as well as tight end Rob Gronkowski.
“I’ve been taking care of myself off the field,” Brown said. “I pride myself on being the guy who is staying in high condition and being physically fit. I spend a year and a half working out in parks and not being able to get a lot of reward. Just grateful to be in the position where I can work out and get the opportunity to play in the game and get some rewards.”
Saints All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas hasn’t played since the first meeting with Tampa Bay because of ankle and hamstring injuries. He practiced on a limited basis Wednesday.
Running back Alvin Kamara was limited in practice because of a foot injury suffered in a win at Chicago last week, but he said he will play against the Buccaneers. — Reuters
For a while there, it looked increasingly like the next season of the National Basketball Association (NBA) wouldn’t be taking off until after the new year. Considering that 22 teams, particularly those that went deep in the playoffs, endured a long, arduous stay inside a constricting bubble environment, the thought of extending the break beyond the holidays and close to Martin Luther King Day appeared both practical and symbolically significant. Once league officials and franchise owners took a closer look at the numbers, however, the prospect of moving the start prior to Christmas became not just more palatable, but necessary.
Needless to say, money has become the primary concern, and not without cause. The NBA is fresh off a singular campaign in which it lost, by The Athletic’s estimates, close to $700 million in revenues, and it figures to continue hemorrhaging earnings given the likelihood of empty arenas under the continuing threat of the novel coronavirus. Facing pressure to preserve income streams, no less than commissioner Adam Silver has impressed upon players the need to at least fulfill obligations to broadcast partners in this regard. Which, in a nutshell, an additional month’s worth of games, including the traditional quintuple-header on Christmas Day, is slated to provide.
Initially resistant to, and skeptical of, plans to begin the 2020-21 season on Dec. 22, the National Basketball Players Association has, of late, warmed to the prospect. They’ll be formalizing their agreement to the start date in a vote today, but with reluctance, and not merely because of the tight schedule. After the rookie draft, in two weeks will come a truncated training camp. Meanwhile, the free agency window will be small, constricting roster assessments and talent movement. And that’s not even taking into consideration the need for seven new head coaches to put their systems in place.
Put simply, the product that the NBA will be putting out early in its 2020-21 campaign will be far from ideal. Not counting marquee names sitting out due to load management, just about all the players will be working themselves to shape while in competition. They don’t want to do it, but they know they have no choice—not with approximately $500 million on the line, and not when half of the basketball-related income impacts directly on their salaries. The sacrifices remain in any case; they’ll be setting aside around a fifth of their take-home pay for the foreseeable future in order to survive the pandemic and its ill-effects.
There are, to be sure, pluses. Aside from the positive impact on the bottom line, the earlier start to the season will likewise bring about an earlier end. For some players, the development allows them to participate in the 2021 Olympics. For all, it reboots the yearly timetable to the traditionally accepted one. Of course, the assumption is that all will proceed as planned, which is, perhaps, optimistic considering the hurdles the National Football League has needed to overcome week after week. Nonetheless, the show must, and will, go on, and longtime habitués of the sport can’t wait.
Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.
The COVID-19 pandemic has widened the gap between those who benefit from the Internet and those who don’t, according to “New Internet Users in a COVID-19 World,” a study released by Google’s Next Billion Users initiative team on November 5.
The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, with many essential sectors such as healthcare, education, commerce, and government moving their services online. While helpful to those with Internet access, the online migration negatively affects New Internet Users (NIU), a demographic of roughly one billion people who only started using the Internet from 2013 to 2017. Almost half of these people come from developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, including the Philippines.
Many NIUs suffered from job loss or reduced income during the pandemic. With inflating prices of essential goods and less money to work with, they have had to sacrifice secondary basic needs, one of which is data. In Mexico, for instance, only two out of nine participants had consistent Internet access. In Brazil, a majority of the users could only afford data with the help of government aid.
This is problematic for NIUs considering the digital migration of essential sectors. Students need Internet access for remote learning. Poor access to telemedicine is further compounded by low awareness and discovery of online tools and platforms. Government employees may be operating purely online, which is a hurdle for NIUs who are used to calling telephone hotlines or visiting local government offices. Those who do not have Internet access may be intimidated by services such as financial aid applications due to low digital literacy.
This digital gap also affects emotional well-being. Smaller quantities of data lead to minimizing or removing of online entertainment. This could also mean less communication with traditionally in-person support systems, such as churches and neighbors, who can now only be contacted through digital means.
The rampant spread of fake news, scams, and misinformation online often leads to distrust of vital institutions such as governments and hospitals. There is also the stress of coping with the economic and digital changes brought by COVID-19, giving NIUs less room to think about and plan for the future.
In order to address these challenges, governments, businesses, and civil society organizations must work together. “As technology plays a bigger role in our lives and digital economies grow, we can and should make the internet better and more inclusive in the post-COVID world, for the billions online today, the next billion to come, and beyond,” said Caesar Sengupta, Google’s vice president for payments and the Next Billion Users Initiative, in a press statement.
The study was conducted among 200 new Internet users from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Nigeria. Of this number, 70 were frequently contacted as they learned to use their first smartphones. — Mariel Alison L. Aguinaldo
For Filipinos, Christmas is all about giving. Buying gifts for family members and loved ones is a tradition and no matter how different this year’s celebrations may be from what we are used to, the spirit of giving will always be alive in all of us.
Yearly, Globe myBusiness supports SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) with the #GiftLocal campaign that aims to encourage Filipino consumers to purchase their gifts to family and friends from local small businesses.
“We have always rallied the Filipino consumers to patronize local establishments and help Filipino SMEs, especially during the holiday season,” said Globe myBusiness Strategy and Marketing Head Maridol Ylanan. “This year’s Gift Local campaign will serve an even greater purpose, as we feature the products of our SME partners that will delight Filipino customers for their gift giving celebration, while supporting our local SMEs bounce back in these challenging times.”
As a part of the annual Gift Local campaign that promotes buying and gifting local during the holiday season, Globe myBusiness is holding a 3-day E-Bazaar with Lazada, happening from November 27 to 29. This will feature Globe myBusiness clients and partner SMEs such as Bayongciaga, Punta Riviera Resort, Old World Food Enterprise, and Robi & Peach RTW clothing with live selling to be streamed through Laz Live and Globe myBusiness’ Facebook page.
An even grander part of the campaign will happen as more activities and promos featuring SMEs will be rolled out by Globe myBusiness in collaboration with partner malls such as Ayala Malls and SM Premier Malls in the coming weeks. These collaborations with these partner malls are made more exciting through a social media promo that will encourage the public to upload their picture showing how they are keeping themselves safe while shopping and dining.
Globe’s #GiftLocal likewise joins the government’s advocacy,“Ingat Angat Tayong Lahat,” that aims to restart the Philippine economy by building consumer confidence and guiding private corporations and SMEs regarding the best safety practices they can adopt in their operations.
Globe myBusiness’ supports the “Ingat Angat Tayong Lahat” advocacy by encouraging SMEs to adopt digital solutions in their operations to help ensure the safety of their customers and its employees. Services such as GCash for cashless transactions and KonsultaMD for employees’ telehealth service are easily made available to Globe myBusiness’ partner SMEs.
Globe myBusiness is also partnering with Ayala Foundation for its Brigada ng Ayala project, which provides education packs, health and hygiene kits, and connectivity support for teachers and learners in the new normal of education. The partnership with Ayala Foundation also extends to disaster relief initiatives.
Globe is also supportive of the 10 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, such as UNSDG No. 8 on decent work and economic growth.
Follow Globe myBusiness Facebook and Twitter pages to get the latest updates on the upcoming events.
UK’s target of 30 million doses of the vaccine by September had not been achieved, and she estimated that Britain would get 4 million doses by the end of the year instead. Photo via AstraZeneca.
LONDON — The timetable for delivery of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine candidate has slipped and Britain will receive just 4 million doses of the shot this year, the head of the UK’s vaccine procurement program said on Wednesday.
In May, Britain agreed to a deal for 100 million doses of the vaccine, developed by Oxford University and licensed to AstraZeneca, with 30 million doses estimated for delivery by September 2020.
Oxford’s trial chief said earlier he was optimistic that late-stage trial results of its efficacy could be presented before the end of the year, and that doses of the shot are already being made.
UK Vaccine Taskforce Chair Kate Bingham said that the target of 30 million doses of the vaccine by September had not been achieved, and she estimated that Britain would get 4 million doses by the end of the year instead.
“The predictions that were made in good faith at the time were assuming that absolutely everything would work and that there were no hiccups at all,” she told lawmakers.
She said the scale-up in manufacturing usually took years to do but instead was moving at unprecedented speed, adding that the full 100 million doses would be delivered next year.
“We’re starting with low numbers of doses—by which I do mean millions of doses, but not tens of millions of doses initially—and then that will then ramp up so that we will end up with the hundred million doses … in the first half of next year,” she said.
AstraZeneca said in a written statement that it was making rapid progress to begin supplying hundreds of millions of doses on a rolling basis once it receives regulatory approval.
“While we are ready to produce finished products, we must be thoughtful of how much is progressed to the final stages of the process to ensure maximum shelf life. We hold inventory in the drug substance form in order to have the longest possible shelf-life upon regulatory approvals,” it added. — Alistair Smout/Reuters
The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus.
NYC first responders have high COVID-19 rates
Photo via New York City Fire Department / Flickr
Compared to the general public, New York City firefighters and emergency medical workers were 15 times more likely to be infected with the new coronavirus during the first wave of the pandemic, researchers reported on Thursday in ERJ Open Research. They studied nearly 10,800 firefighters and 3,500 emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics. From the beginning of March to the end of May, 36.2% of these front-line workers were either confirmed as having the virus with a positive PCR viral test or suspected as having COVID-19 due to their symptoms. During the same period, the rate was 2.4% in the city’s general population. Compared to the firefighters, the EMTs and paramedics were more likely to contract the virus and to develop severe COVID-19. Everyone in the study had previously undergone tests to assess their lung health, and those with declining lung function before the pandemic had higher risks of severe COVID-19. These first responders “cannot avoid entering homes or having close contact with members of the public and co-workers,” Dr. Anita Simonds, president of the European Respiratory Society, said in a statement. “No matter where we live in the world, we… need to do all we can to protect them.”
Public surfaces might give clues to virus spread
Local public health officials interested in how and where the new coronavirus is spreading might want to monitor the amounts of virus on “high-touch” surfaces in their communities, a new study suggests. From April to June, during a COVID-19 outbreak in one Massachusetts town, researchers swabbed 348 nonporous surfaces that frequently get touched by the public. Twenty-nine swabs, or 8.3%, were positive for the virus, including crosswalk buttons, trash can handles, and door handles at entrances to essential businesses like grocery stores, liquor stores, banks, and gas stations. In a report posted on Sunday on medRxiv ahead of peer review, the researchers note that the amount of virus on the surfaces was minimal and the risk of infection from touching one is extremely low. But the prevalence of the virus on high-touch surfaces in public spaces and essential businesses “reflected, and may even lead, local COVID-19 case numbers by one week,” they said. “Our findings demonstrate the potential for environmental surveillance of high-touch surfaces to inform disease dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
New app aids cancer decision-making during pandemic
A new app may help cancer patients decide how risky it is for them to delay treatment due to fear of contracting COVID-19. Using data from over five million US patients, researchers developed an online tool that quantifies that risk for individuals with 25 different types of cancer. In JAMA Oncology, they give two examples. The first is a 70-year-old New York City woman during the peak of the pandemic’s first wave. She had stage 2 triple-negative breast cancer and also suffered from hypertension and diabetes. Treatment involves surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation. For her, the consequences of catching the coronavirus by going for treatment outweigh a three-month treatment delay due to her risk factors for severe COVID-19. Immediate treatment would reduce her odds of being alive five years later by 8%. By contrast, for an otherwise healthy 40-year-old with the same cancer living in an area less affected by the virus, survival odds with immediate versus delayed treatment would differ by less than 0.1%. Coauthor Dr. Matthew Schipper of the University of Michigan said his team is updating the app to include more recent data on cancer patients’ COVID-19 mortality risk and also working on methods to provide uncertainty estimates, “as the uncertainty can be large, particularly when looking several months in the future.” — Nancy Lapid/Reuters
Beyond jobs lost and economic output curtailed, whoever wins the US presidential election will face a list of long-term headwinds including deepening inequality, rising federal debt, and tattered international trade relations. Photo via Alex Proimos / CC BY 2.0
It’s still not clear yet if the next US president will be incumbent Donald J. Trump or Democratic challenger Joseph R. Biden, but whoever triumphs will face monumental challenges on the economic front.
The recession has been ugly. It has wiped away more than a year of economic output and more than five years of jobs growth.
The workforce is now smaller than it was a year before Mr. Trump first took office.
One bright spot—consumer spending—is stronger than it was right after the pandemic exploded in March, but still only back to where it was last June.
Housing prices are on the rise, which is a great thing for US homeowners but at the same time is worsening the affordability crisis for aspiring home buyers.
Manufacturing activity—a key concern in the Midwestern battleground states—has rebounded, but manufacturing employment is in worse shape than employment overall.
And the coronavirus is still surging across most of the United States. Nearly 6,000 people died last week, and there’s growing concern that the U.S. might need to reinstate lockdowns that happened across Europe in order to get it under control.
But despite signs the economy has begun to slow again amid another viral onslaught, “it is almost certain that the economy will get better over the course of 2021,” says Jason Furman, a key economic advisor to Barack Obama, the last US president elected during a time of economic turmoil.
Late 2021 is still a long ways away, not just in political terms but for those living paycheck to paycheck, or out of work.
Federal Reserve policymaker projections put unemployment at 5.5% by the end of next year— worse than the 4.7% when Mr. Trump was first elected, but an improvement over the current 7.9%.
Beyond jobs lost and economic output curtailed, either Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden will face a list of long-term headwinds including deepening inequality, rising federal debt, and tattered international trade relations.
In the run-up to the election, Mr. Trump consistently polled better than Mr. Biden on his ability to create jobs and manage the economy, if not the virus.
But even with the election outcome uncertain, and likely to remain so for some time amid legal challenges, stock market investors like what they see.
That’s partly because Republicans look likely to keep their hold on the Senate, leaving policy priorities relatively unchanged if it’s Mr. Trump emerging the winner, or as preventive force to a president Mr. Biden from trying to push through any big policy changes should he come out on top in the ballot box.
It’s also because Senate Majority Leader Republican Mitch McConnell signaled Wednesday he was open to a new coronavirus aid bill in the “lame duck” session before the elected members of Senate and US House of Representatives are sworn in.
For the still-weak economy, a lot will depend on the timing, size, and shape of a pandemic relief package, which eluded lawmakers and the White House before the election.
A more modest fiscal package could mean “the growth outlook and corporate profits may not be as vigorous as hoped,” said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING.
A Biden presidency with a majority Republican Senate could offer the worst case for the economy in 2021 because Republicans are likely to oppose a substantial stimulus package, said Matthew Luzzetti, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank.
That would be bad news for the millions of low- and middle-income Americans out of work and struggling to find jobs in sectors such as travel and entertainment that are likely to remain moribund until the pandemic is under better control.
A scenario where Mr. Trump is re-elected and the Senate stays in Republican control could potentially result in more stimulus because Mr. Trump has advocated for more stimulus and could have more sway if he is re-elected, Mr. Luzzetti said.
Whatever the election outcome, any aid package should provide additional assistance for the unemployed, help for small businesses, and assistance for state and local governments, to keep economic momentum going, Mr. Luzzetti said. — Ann Saphir and Jonnelle Marte/Reuters
NEW YORK — Investors who met news of likely gridlock in Washington with a large-scale unwind of bets on a Democratic sweep weighed prospects for big stimulus measures while cheering fading expectations of higher taxes and new regulations.
Regardless of whether Democrat Joseph R. Biden or Republican Donald J. Trump wins the presidency, some investors on Wednesday welcomed the prospect that either candidate would likely face some opposition in Congress that would be a barrier to sweeping legislative changes.
“The market likes the fact that we have a gridlock,” said Gary Bradshaw, senior vice-president at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. “We are not likely to see big tax increases, and not a lot of regulation.”
Despite predictions ahead of the election that not having an early clear result could derail stocks, equities soared as the prospect of gridlock provided some solace and calm.
Markets saw tempering of so-called “reflation” trades that had predicted a strong Democratic score in presidential and US Senate races would lead to a bigger stimulus and higher inflation, as well as some safe-haven buying on caution the election is so close.
“There is no blue wave,” said Robert Sears, chief investment officer at Capital Generation Partners. “The chance of a lot of fiscal spending … that scenario is out of the window now because it looks like Republicans are going to keep the Senate.”
US Treasuries gained and the dollar shuffled between gains and losses as investors discounted chances for a massive stimulus package to help the US economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 230,000 Americans.
A major bet on a Democratic “blue wave” sweep was being unwound, as traders pulled out of bearish bets that long-dated Treasury yields would rise.
Major US stock indexes ended higher, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up nearly 4%, reflecting bets on receding chances of a Democratic takeover of Washington that could usher in higher capital gains taxes or tougher antitrust measures, as well the prospect of lower interest rates.
The election results were more “down the middle,” said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors in Denver, “meaning no clear mandate on either side, so there will have to be a lot of compromise.”
“I think the market sees that as a removal of uncertainty and the market likes that,” Mr. Peron said. Healthcare stocks also surged amid relief that regulatory pressure that could have swept through the sector in a Democratic sweep would not materialize. Sectors seen benefiting from a major stimulus package, such as financials, weakened.
Asian stocks firmed on Thursday, while trading in US stock futures was more subdued as it resumed on Wednesday night, with S&P 500 futures moving modestly higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures outperforming.
BIDEN IN FRONT, TRUMP EYES COURTS
Mr. Biden said he was headed toward a victory after claiming the pivotal Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Mr. Trump opened a multi-pronged attack on vote counts by pursuing lawsuits and a recount.
Reflecting the uncertainty, betting markets swung violently on the presidential vote. As of Wednesday evening, Mr. Biden was holding on to his position as a clear favorite to win the US presidential election in online betting markets, a shift from the previous night.
But Republicans appeared poised to retain control of the US Senate, after Senator Susan Collins won re-election in Maine and other Republican incumbents led Democrats in a handful of undecided races.
Since the 2016 election of Mr. Trump, who ushered in corporate tax cuts that supported equities but also imposed trade tariffs that led to volatility, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has gained over 60% and hit new highs.
Investors remain most worried about the presidential race being too close to call or contested for a prolonged period.
“Markets can live with either candidate,” said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners. “The scenario they don’t want are legal problems over the outcome and significant political unrest.” — David Randall and Lewis Krauskopf/Reuters
