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Peso at new high even as PHL sinks into recession

THE PESO strengthened to a new three-year high versus the greenback on Thursday as investors have already priced in the economy’s contraction in the second quarter.

The local unit ended trading at P49.05 against the dollar on Thursday, gaining 2.50 centavos from its P49.075 close on Wednesday, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines showed.

Thursday’s finish is the peso’s best in more than three years or since its P48.95-per dollar close on Nov. 11, 2016. The peso opened Thursday’s session at P49.06 per dollar. Its weakest was at P49.09 while its intraday best was at P49.01 against the greenback.

Dollars traded decreased to $587.1 million on Thursday from the $699.71 million seen on Wednesday. The local unit’s strength showed investors already expected a deeper contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort.

“The peso closed stronger as the weaker GDP is already priced in [by the market] and they considered older data with month- on-month recovery such as manufacturing and exports.

The economy shrank by 16.5% in the second quarter, worse than the 0.7% drop in the first quarter and a reversal of the 5.4% growth in the same period in 2019, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released Thursday showed. This means the country has already entered a technical recession as it has logged two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The 16.5% contraction is the deepest so far for the country based on available PSA data and is worse than the 10.7% decline in the third quarter of 1984.

Meanwhile, a trader said the market preferred the peso as they await economic data from the United States. “The local currency appreciated on expectations of elevated initial jobless claims report this Thursday,” the trader said in an e-mail.

Reuters reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.434 million in the week ending July 25, data released by the US Labor department showed. For today, Mr. Ricafort sees the peso ranging between P48.95 to P49.15 versus the dollar while the trader expects the local unit to move around the P49.00 to P49.20 band. — L.W.T. Noble with Reuters

A PGA Championship like no other tees off

SAN FRANCISCO — In one of the most anticipated sporting events since the COVID-19 pandemic sent sports into a deep freeze in March, the PGA Championship comes to San Francisco this week with several top players out to make history. Originally scheduled for May, the tournament was pushed back to August, when San Francisco’s thick fog often blankets the city.

Starting on Thursday, it will be the first of three majors this year, with the world’s top players competing to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy and collect a $1.98-million check on Sunday.

Yet the winner will do so without fans in attendance for the first time in the tournament’s 102-year history due to the pandemic, sapping energy and ambiance from TPC Harding Park.

“It’s going to be very different,” said four-time PGA Championship winner Tiger Woods, who in normal times would have a flock of fans at every hole he played.

“But it’s still a major championship. It’s still the best players in the world. We all understand that going into it, so there’s going to be plenty of energy from the competitive side.”

All eyes will be on the 44-year-old Woods, who is looking to win his 16th major title and record-breaking 83rd PGA Tour victory.

Yet he is decidedly an underdog, having only played once since the tour resumed in June. The chilly conditions could also cause his surgically repaired back to tighten up, limiting his movement.

KOEPKA, SPIETH EYE HISTORY

Favorite Brooks Koepka is looking to become the only player to win the tournament three years in a row since it switched from being a matchplay event to a stroke play event in 1958.

Walter Hagen won the tournament four consecutive times between 1924-1927 and five times overall.

Koepka has been in this position before. He won back-to-back US Open titles in 2017 and 2018 but fell short of capturing a third when he was beaten to the trophy by Gary Woodland at Pebble Beach in 2019.

“I’ve already dealt with it at the US Open,” he said when asked about the added pressure.

“I feel like I know how to handle it and I played pretty well. I just got beat,” he said.

“My game feels like it’s in really, really good shape right now.”

A victory this week would give Jordan Spieth a career Grand Slam, something only Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods have achieved in the men’s game.

“It’s probably the number one goal in the game of golf for me right now,” he said.

“I’d love to be able to hold all four trophies, and this is the one that’s in the way.”

Whoever wins will have earned their victory at what Koepka called a “big boy’s golf course.”

Harding Park’s narrow fairways are lined with overhanging Cypress trees and it features a nasty rough that will punish errant tee shots. Power without precision will not get the job done.

The cool coastal fog will also keep the ball from travelling as far as it would in hotter climates, making the 7,251 yard par-70 municipal course play much longer.

“If you can put the ball in the fairway, you’re going to have a great chance,” said ESPN golf analyst Andy North.

“It’s not going to be just a bomber’s paradise.” — Reuters

Maharlika FC signifies intent to join the PFL

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo
Senior Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES Football League (PFL) could add another team in its fold with Maharlika FC signifying its intent to join the four-year-old league.

Led by former Philippine Azkals player and 7s Football League founder Anton del Rosario, Maharlika FC is currently in the process of working on its license to operate as a team and compete in leagues like the PFL.

“We are currently going through the process of getting our license. I think we have a pretty good lineup of players willing to play for the team,” shared Mr. Del Rosario in an online forum with sports media on Thursday.

“But we are more focused on presenting a new side to be able to show that we want to look towards the future and instead of just focusing on winning we want to create something sustainable where we get the supporters and the fans behind our team and push us to be competitive,” he added.

Mr. Del Rosario did not divulge the names of the players of Maharlika FC, reserving the announcement for a later date. But he did say that the team is to be composed of “former Azkals players, ex-pros and a few youth guys.”

The Maharlika FC founder went on to share that they hope through the team they get to continue doing their share in the development of the sport in the country and bringing people in to support the “beautiful game.”

On the part of the PFL, it said the league welcomes Maharlika FC if the latter does push through with its plans to join.

“They (Maharlika) have sent their intent to join and are undergoing licensing process and they have high chances of making it,” said PFL Commissioner Coco Torre in an online interview with BusinessWorld.

Mr. Torre said they like the enthusiasm that Mr. Del Rosario and his group are showing and view them as a good addition to the league if ever.

“They are a very enthusiastic group and I see great potential with them because they have a vision which is aligned with ours. The way they plan to market their club will also help bring awareness and following to the league aside from their competitive attitude,” the PFL commissioner said.

If Maharlika FC successfully makes the cut, it will join Kaya FC-Iloilo, Stallion Laguna FC, Mendiola FC, United City Football Club, and the Azkals Development Team in the roster of teams competing.

The status of another team, Global FC, meanwhile, remains up in the air after it failed to honor its commitment to settle outstanding financial obligations with its players.

Sixers beat Wizards, 107-98, but Simmons hurts knee

JOEL EMBIID scored nine consecutive points in a 13-0 Philadelphia burst that bridged the third and fourth quarters on Wednesday afternoon in the National Basketball Association (NBA) “bubble” near Orlando, and the 76ers posted a 107-98 victory over the Washington Wizards despite losing Ben Simmons to a knee injury.

Embiid finished with game-high totals of 30 points and 11 rebounds for the 76ers (41-27), who won their second straight after beginning their Florida stay with a loss to Indiana.

The win might have been a costly one. Simmons left a tight  contest with 5:46 remaining in the third quarter, favoring his left knee. He had grabbed an offensive rebound four seconds earlier.

Initial reports from the locker room indicated there was no serious damage, but Simmons was not able to return to the game. He finished with eight points in 23 minutes.

Washington lost its fourth straight at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex despite 19-point efforts from Thomas Bryant and Jerome Robinson.

The 76ers led by as many as 10 in the first half, but in the wake of Simmons’ departure, the Wizards went up 74-69 on two free throws by Robinson with 1:38 remaining in the third period.

Furkan Korkmaz countered with one of two free throws for the 76ers before Embiid took over, scoring the final seven points of the quarter, giving Philadelphia a 77-74 lead.

Embiid added a dunk and Tobias Harris a jumper to begin the fourth period, completing the 13-point run and extending the margin to 82-74 with 11:00 remaining.

The Wizards rallied within 92-88 with 4:19 to go on a Troy Brown, Jr. jumper. However, Shake Milton bombed in a 3-pointer and added a short jumper in a personal five-point run that reopened a nine-point advantage.

Embiid connected on 11-of-20 field-goal attempts for the 76ers, who out-shot the Wizards 46.3% to 42.4%.

Harris chipped in with 17 points while Josh Richardson added 15, Milton 14 and Korkmaz 10.

Philadelphia’s Al Horford contributed 10 rebounds and a team-high five assists off the bench.

Bryant completed a double-double with a team-high 10 rebounds for the Wizards. Brown totaled 17 points while Ish Smith had 12 to complement a team-high six assists. — Reuters

Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 discusses plans with stakeholders

Newly recognized professional league Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 has started shoring up its preparations for its new season later this year despite the coronavirus pandemic, recently discussing its plans with stakeholders.

Got the nod from the Games and Amusements Board last week to operate now as a professional league, the people from Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 said they are excited to level up and are doing everything they can to ensure that the conduct of the league will be rightfully and carefully done especially amid the challenges presented by the ongoing situation with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The league is eyeing a September start to its season, which will be held in a bubble at the INSPIRE Academy in Calamba, Laguna.

To help it in its push for a successful staging of its tournament, Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 recently met with team representatives of squads which will see action.

League commissioner Eric Altamirano led the meeting with team representatives who included San Juan-Go for Gold team governor Chris Conwi; Sta. Lucia sports head Buddy Encarnado; Nueva Ecija’s team manager Jai Reyes and official Mike Baldos; Porac-Big Boss Cement’s Ryan Monteclaro; Zamboanga-Family’s Brand Sardines’ Tonette Roque; Mindoro’s Justin Tan and Teytey Teodoro; and Sulu’s Marvin Forniza.

Mr. Altamirano and his team thoroughly discussed how the league would push through — including strict testings, player eligibility, and life inside the bubble.

Dr. Butch Ong of the University of the Philippines Science and Society Program discussed the health protocols while a representative from GET Philippines tackled the contract tracing application the players, staff, and team officials will use.

“We had to be very thorough and detailed during the meeting with the team owners since we can’t leave no stone unturned especially with the pandemic still ongoing,” said Mr. Altamirano.

Team representatives, for their part, came away satisfied with the meeting and vowed to follow what is asked of them.

“We are glad to be part of this organization,” said Mr. Encarnado.

“The players’ safety was greatly emphasized earlier. We can’t wait to get back to work since this is really for them,” Mr.Reyes, meanwhile, said.

The Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 is a first-of-its-kind league founded by Bounty Agro Ventures, Inc. President Ronald Mascariñas last year with the goal of helping the country get enough FIBA 3×3 points to book a spot in the qualifiers for the 2020 Olympic Games, where 3×3 basketball is making its debut.

It succeeded in its immediate goal as the Chooks-to-Go backed squad earned a slot in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament happening in May next year in Austria. The team is hoping to go deeper and make its way to the rescheduled Tokyo Games in the middle of 2021.

Along the way, Chooks-to-Go Pilipinas 3×3 hosted a number of tournaments, something it aims to continue and build on now that it is a professional league. — Michael Angelo S. Murillo

US Open cuts winners’ prize money

NEW YORK — US Open singles winners will receive $850,000 less prize money this year, the United States Tennis Association said on Wednesday, with first-round prize money increasing.

The tennis Grand Slam, which begins on Aug. 31 in New York, will take place without fans and some of the sports’ biggest stars, amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak across the United States.

The $53.4-million total prize pool is down from last year’s $57-million pot, the richest in the tournament’s history, with 2020 first-round prize money jumping 5% to $61,000 from $58,000. Singles winners will receive $3 million, down from $3.85 million in 2019.

Runners-up will receive $1.5 million, down from $1.9 million the year before. Semifinalists and quarterfinalists will also see their winnings dip slightly.

“The prize money distribution for the 2020 US Open is the result of close collaboration between the USTA, WTA and ATP, and represents a commitment to supporting players and their financial well-being during an unprecedented time,” USTA CEO Mike Dowse said in a written statement.

Additionally, USTA said it was donating another $6.6 million in monetary relief for players who have seen their earnings decline after the global viral outbreak upended the professional calendar.

Defending champion Rafa Nadal and women’s world number one Ash Barty are among those who have decided to skip the event, citing concerns about the coronavirus. The United States has more than 4.79 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 157,000 people have died. — Reuters

Ready to contend

When Tiger Woods says he’s ready to contend at the PGA Championship, all and sundry need to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Nobody knows Tiger Woods better than Tiger Woods himself, so when he says he’s ready to contend at the PGA Championship, all and sundry need to give him the benefit of the doubt. After all, he does have 15 major championships on his resume, the 2008 United States Open (which he claimed off a playoff despite competing with a double stress fracture of his left tibia), and the 2019 Masters (which he won at a relatively old, and relatively frail, 43) included. Which is to say he has the tools and the fortitude to prevail regardless of the odds.

That said, Woods has handicapped his chances by choosing to stay away from the sport; he heads into TPC Harding Park in San Francisco having played in a tournament setting just once in the last five months. To be sure, he’s being cautious in line with the demands of his body battered by numerous stints under the knife, not to mention time. On the other hand, his lack of reps will hurt his cause, and especially since the ways in which he has tried to stay sharp — among them teeing off for practice rounds in sunny Florida — don’t jibe with current conditions in California. The colder, damper climate figures to affect his surgically repaired back, and, in this regard, he has already seen fit to ease pressure on it by tweaking the length of his putter.

If conventional wisdom isn’t convinced of Woods’ capacity to contend, it’s partly because of the depth of the field. Defending titleholder Brooks Koepka hopes to translate his recent good form to the first three-peat in close to a century. Newly installed World Number One Justin Thomas aims to build momentum off an emphatic triumph at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. And then there’s beefed-up Bryson DeChambeau, who looks to overwhelm the 7,200-yard course by combining newfound length off the tee with enough accuracy to avoid the myriad Cypress trees and three-and-a-half-inch rough.

Admittedly, though, conventional wisdom doesn’t have to look beyond Woods’ own backyard to justify its absence of confidence in his standing. He does have good memories of Harding Park, where he won every session in the 2009 Presidents Cup and hoisted the 2005 WGC-American Express Championship trophy. On the flipside, his 40th-place finish at the Memorial Tournament three weeks ago proves that past experiences count for squat; despite five previous podium finishes at Muirfield Village, he had an up-and-down output of two strong rounds offset by two poor ones.

In any case, there can be no doubting Woods, per Woods. “This is what I’ve been gearing up for,” he argued in a run-up presser. “I haven’t played that much, he acknowledged, “but [given] the results that I’ve seen at home, [I’m] very enthusiastic about some of the changes I’ve made.” Can he win? “Of course,” he replied matter of factly. Will he win? The answer is much less clear.

 

ANTHONY L. CUAYCONG has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994.

PhilHealth exec quits amid Senate graft probe

A TOP Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) official quit his job on Thursday, even as he vowed to cooperate with lawmakers’ corruption probe of the state-run insurance agency.

Vice-President for Operations Augustus de Villa did not say in his resignation letter why he quit. “Be assured that I will make myself available for the ongoing investigations in aid of legislation in both Houses of Congress,” he added.

Mr. De Villa, a retired military officer, said he had briefed PhilHealth President and Chief Executive Officer Ricardo Morales earlier in the day about his resignation.

Former PhilHealth anti-fraud legal officer Thorsson Keith this week told senators at a hearing the agency’s top officials had pocketed P15 billion through fraudulent programs.

He said the sum came from overpriced equipment the agency had bought, as well as from a program that gave financial aid to health facilities amid a coronavirus pandemic. Mr. Keith called PhilHealth executive committee officers in-house mafia members.

PhilHealth on Thursday denied the allegations. “His malicious claims not substantiated by evidence were obviously made to malign officers that rejected his ambitions for higher offices which he is not qualified for,” it said in a statement.

Mr. Keith told senators he had submitted to Mr. De Villa documents showing that the agency was planning to spend P4.81 million for 15 network switches, even if the market price was less than a million pesos.

Mr. De Villa supposedly tore the papers out of frustration, but he corrected Mr. Keith and told senators he had kept the documents.

Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III noted that despite PhilHealth’s denial, the chamber would wait for the pieces of evidence.

“They can deny all they want, let’s wait for the evidence,” he said in a mobile phone message.

He also said Mr. De Villa must have a “very good reason for resigning in the midst of the controversy.”

Senator Panfilo M. Lacson said the committee had gathered enough evidence to prove PhilHealth had bought overpriced items and favored some beneficiaries.

“Let the documents speak for themselves,” he told the ABS-CBN News Channel. “We have the documents to prove that there was gross overpricing and favoritism in the disbursement of interim reimbursement mechanism funds,” he added.

The mechanism allowed the agency to grant advance payments to health institutions by up to three months during the pandemic, even if only P1 billion had been liquidated.

He also said Mr. Keith was expected to provide at the next hearing a breakdown of the P15 billion allegedly lost to corruption.

The Senate has issued a subpoena for the documents in Mr. De Villa’s possession. It will hold another hearing on Aug. 11.

“Resigned or not, General De Villa is under a legal order to present it to the committee at the next hearing,” Mr. Lacson said.

“I can only hope that he will be part of an advocacy group within PhilHealth and contribute in exposing shenanigans based on his personal knowledge,” he added.

At Tuesday’s Senate hearing, former PhilHealth board member Alejandro L. Cabading said he had repeatedly flagged questionable budgetary items for the IT department, including a P2.1-billion budget proposal without details.

Mr. Morales said the P2.1 billion was meant to improve the agency’s problem with insurance fraud, adding that it had lost P10.2 billion to fraud out of P136 billion in total benefit payments last year.

Meanwhile, President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s anti-corruption commission said its cases against 36 PhilHealth officials linked to fraud were airtight.

The officials could face criminal and administrative complaints at the Office of the Ombudsman, Presidential Anti-Corruption Commissioner Greco Belgica told the ABS-CBN News Channel.

The PACC had submitted a partial report to the Office of the President and was organizing an investigation team per region, he said.

“Mafia is really an abused word,” Mr. Belgica said. “There’s no one big mafia in PhilHealth but rather many groups in the regions.”

He said most PhilHealth transactions happen at the regional level, noting that corruption persists even after Mr. Duterte fired the entire board in August last year.

Mr. Belgica also said PhilHealth’s national office had whitewashed complaints against regional officials.

The state insurance agency had lost at least P154 billion due to overpayments, he said, citing a Commission on Audit report in 2013. It loses part of the P2 billion in monthly payment claims to corruption, he added.

Nerissa R. Santiago, a PhilHealth senior vice-president, had told senators the agency might collapse by 2022 if the COVID-19 pandemic continues and it fails to get more subsidies from the government.

She said PhilHealth would no longer have any reserve funds by 2021, as contributions declined and benefit payouts rose amid the health crisis.

PhilHealth is expected to suffer a net operating loss of P90 billion this year and P147 billion in 2021, she said.
But Senator Ralph G. Recto rejected Ms. Santiago’s claims, noting that contributions are mandatory. He said taxes imposed on various products such as sugar-sweetened beverages and alcohol are earmarked for PhilHealth. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

COVID-19 infections near 120,000, with 2,150 dead — DoH

THE Department of Health (DoH) reported 3,561 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the total to 119,460.

The death toll rose to 2,150 after 28 more patients died, while recoveries increased by 569 to 66,837, it said in a bulletin.

Of the new cases 2,041 were from Metro Manila, 222 from Laguna, 221 from Cebu, 100 from Cavite and 81 from Rizal, DoH said.

There were 50,473 active cases, 91% of which were mild, 7.8% did not show symptoms, and less than 1% each were severe and 0.5% were critical. More than 1.5 million people have been tested for the virus, it added.

DoH said the Philippines had tested more people than its Southeast Asian neighbors. The country had conducted more than 1.6 million tests as of Aug. 4, with a daily testing average of 28,938 in the past seven days, it said in a separate statement.

This was higher than about 908,000 tests conducted by Indonesia, which had a daily testing average of 14,291, it said, citing the Our World in Data website.

“This increased testing capacity is the result of the government’s continuing efforts to expand its capability to identify confirmed COVID-19 cases, in congruence with the other facets of its national five-point response strategy,” DoH said. “Other facets of this national strategy include prevention, isolation, contact tracing and treatment.”

The Health department said its coronavirus death rate was at 1.8% despite the surge in cases, lower than Indonesia’s 4.7% with more than 5,000 deaths and the global rate of 3.7%.

Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned the public and healthcare professionals against buying misbranded face masks.

In an advisory, it flagged Fu Le Bang Disposable Mask, Flag World Face Mask and Mask, which used foreign characters in their labels.

Under the law, a device is misbranded if any word, statement or other information in the label is not prominently placed.

“In view of the above, all concerned establishments are warned not to distribute, advertise, or sell the said violative medical device products, otherwise, regulatory actions and sanctions shall be strictly pursued,” according to a copy of the advisory signed by Director General Rolando Enrique D. Domingo.

FDA regional offices and regulatory enforcement units must coordinate with law enforcement agencies and local governments to ensure the products are not being sold.

“The Bureau of Customs is urged to restrain entry of these misbranded products,” it added. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Top Philippine envoy says China reading too much in drill snub

THE Philippines’ top envoy on Thursday invoked the country’s arbitral award in a sea dispute with China, and said Beijing was “reading too much” into Manila’s refusal to join military exercises in the South China Sea.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin, Jr. said the country had been “consistent and clear” in its stand on the sea dispute.

“You’re reading too much into a simple directive,” Mr. Locsin told China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin.

He issued the remark after Mr. Wang said Beijing welcomed President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s order prohibiting the Philippine Navy from joining the exercises.

“We appreciate President Duterte’s remarks and stand ready to properly resolve maritime disputes with the Philippines through friendly consultations to jointly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea and the entire region,” Mr. Wang was quoted in a China Global Television Network news.

“The Philippine position has been ‘consistent and clear.’ What is ours is ours under the arbitral award and no one else can tell us differently,” Mr. Locsin said.

Also on Thursday, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said 11 Filipino seamen who jumped off a ship after an explosion in Beirut have been found.

“Our Embassy in Beirut has ascertained the conditions of all 13 Filipino seafarers who were injured in the blast that rocked the city,” Foreign Affairs Under Secretary Sarah Lou Y. Arriola said in a statement.

Charge d’affaires Ajeet Panemanglor visited eight of the seafarers, who stayed at their company accommodations. The other five were at the hospital for check-ups.

The embassy said it was still looking for a Filipina housekeeper who also went missing after the blast. “She has not been located,” Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Eduardo Martin R. Meñez said in a mobile phone message.

The explosion occurred at a port warehouse that stored 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate, a substance used for fertilizers and explosives, according to reports.

It killed at least 135 people, including two Filipinos who were both in their employers’ home when the blast occurred.

About 32,000 Filipinos are in Lebanon, down from 33,000 in December after some of them came home amid a global coronavirus pandemic. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

Indonesia bets on $100B state spend to revive growth

Indonesia’s government will spend aggressively in the coming months to support a nascent economic recovery after measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic sent Southeast Asia’s largest economy into its first contraction in more than two decades.

State spending will total about 1,476 trillion rupiah ($101 billion) in the six months through December, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said during a briefing in Jakarta on Wednesday. A ramp up in government spending will sustain the recovery momentum seen with the easing of mobility restrictions, she said.

“We are accelerating spending mostly for social protection and supporting businesses,” Indrawati said. “We’re also pushing ministries and institutions. With all these steps taken, we expect them to stimulate economic activity in the months ahead.”

With the economy sliding 5.32% in the second quarter, the worst performance since 1999, and private consumption and investment remaining sluggish, officials are turning to fiscal measures to reignite growth and prevent a full-year contraction. But a failure to contain the pandemic and with more lockdown measures looming, efforts to resume full economic activities may falter in the world’s fourth-most populous nation. The government has spent less than 25% of the almost $50 billion in fiscal stimulus, official data show.

“Reversing this under-spending will be crucial for reviving growth,” Joseph Incalcaterra, HSBC Holdings Plc’s chief Asean economist, said in a report. “While Indonesia’s GDP may not contract as sharply as other regional economies, the recovery will nonetheless be shallower, and policy support may be needed for a sustained period of time.”

Growth will remain subdued in the third quarter as well, with HSBC expecting the economy to contract 0.9%. While fiscal policy is expected to do the short-term heavy lifting, conventional monetary policy support will continue into 2021 with the central bank expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of first quarter next year, Incalcaterra said.

Retail sales in the consumption-reliant economy have taken a knock amid the pandemic, while manufacturing continues to contract, as the latest purchasing managers index shows. Indonesia’s exports, dominated by commodities such as coal and palm oil, have shown some improvement in recent months.

The government has lowered its growth forecasts several times already and now sees GDP in a range of -0.4% to 1% for the year. The central bank has cut its own estimate to 0.9%-1.9% growth. Indrawati said a second wave of virus cases in various countries and lack of clarity about vaccine availability are adding to the global uncertainties.

Bank Indonesia will continue to strengthen synergies with the government and related authorities through its policy mix to ensure various measures initiated are more effective in strengthening the economic recovery, it said in a statement.

With Indonesia’s capital Jakarta and its suburbs delaying further easing of mobility restrictions due to a surge in virus cases, a revival in private consumption, the bedrock of growth, is going to be gradual in the second half, according to Sung Eun Jung, an economist at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore.

“We forecast a slow recovery path with annual growth still contracting in the second half before returning to positive territory in 2021, amid a lingering virus outbreak and an overstretched healthcare system,” Sung wrote in a report. “Exports, however, should benefit to some degree from the turnaround in Chinese import demand.”

Indonesia didn’t impose a nationwide lockdown like many of its neighbors, and began easing some of the restrictions put in place to contain the pandemic from June. Confirmed cases have almost quadrupled since then with the cumulative tally reaching 116,871 on Wednesday and fatalities totaling 5,452, the highest in Southeast Asia.

Without effective measures to contain the pandemic, a full economic recovery may be elusive, according to Capital Economics Ltd., which expects Indonesia’s GDP to contract 3% this year.

“Fear of catching the virus means people will be reluctant to fully resume their normal lives. Social distancing will need to last for longer,” Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. “Indonesia’s policy response has been underwhelming.” — Bloomberg

Fauci expects tens of millions of coronavirus vaccine doses at start of 2021

WASHINGTON – Drugmakers will likely have tens of millions of doses of coronavirus vaccines in the early part of next year, Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases official, said in a Reuters interview on Wednesday, offering a more conservative view of the ramp up than some Trump administration officials.

Fauci said there could be a billion vaccine doses available by the end of 2021, and that he is hopeful the world could get past the pandemic that has claimed more than 700,000 lives worldwide by then, with the help of a vaccine.

U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said last month the U.S. would have hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by early in 2021.

Those goals are only possible because drugmakers have agreed to manufacture large supplies of their vaccines even before they know whether they work in order to save time.

“The federal government has put more than one egg in the basket,” Fauci said. “We have a pretty comprehensive portfolio that’s going to subsequently be going into clinical trials.”

He said there might be an indication that at least one vaccine works and is safe by year end.

“I’m cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine that’s effective enough to get approved,” he said.

That will not happen because of any pressure to have a vaccine available in time for the Nov. 3 presidential election, he said. Health regulators have promised “they are not going to let political considerations interfere” with the need to deliver a safe COVID-19 vaccine, Fauci said.

Fauci’s interview with Reuters came on the same day Trump said in an interview with Fox News that the virus is “going away. It will go away like things go away.”

Fauci offered a more mixed assessment, saying some parts of the country had done well in containing the spread of the virus, while others were “on fire.”

“I hope, and feel it’s possible, that by the time we get through 2021 and go around for another cycle that we’ll have this under control,” he said.

The United States is committed to spending billions of dollars on vaccines being produced by companies including Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Inc, Pfizer Inc , Novavax Inc and Sanofi SA, employing a variety of technologies.

Fauci said he did not favor one approach over any other.

“All of them look pretty good,” he said. “The proof of the pudding is the randomized placebo controlled trial.” — Reuters