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Regional Updates (11/19/20)

Police, NBI asked to go after scammers using typhoon victims

A lawmaker on Thursday asked the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) and Philippine National Police (PNP) to go after people organizing bogus donation drives supposedly to assist victims of typhoons that recently pummeled many areas in Luzon. Samar 1st District Rep. Edgar Mary S. Sarmiento, chair of the House transport committee, made the call as he reported that a group claiming to represent his office has been “asking money from friends, supporters and even businessmen from the transport industry purportedly as part of his fund-raising campaign to help the typhoon victims.” He said the names of other politicians, entertainment personalities, and prominent members of the business community have also been used. “While we are appealing for help for tens of thousands of families who lost their homes, properties and the lives of their loved ones, we should make sure that our donations do not end up in the hands of these unscrupulous syndicates who are preying on the misfortunes of other people,” he said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

2,800 Marawi families still in temporary shelters

AROUND 2,800 families displaced by the Marawi siege are still living in temporary housing three years after it ended, according to Senator Risa N. Hontiveros-Baraquel, citing data from the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD). Ms. Hontivero-Baraquel on Thursday sponsored the P5.448 billion budget of the department for 2021. Of this, P415 million will fund DHSUD’s operations and P2 billion for the National Housing Authority (NHA), among other attached agencies. The senator said the DHSUD had targeted to provide a total of 4,800 transitory housing, but was only able to complete 2,800. She noted all those residing in the temporary shelters are provided regular assistance. “The secretary (of DHSUD) says the accomplishment rate, as of today, ay nandun sa mga (is at) 20-30% with the balance scheduled to be completed by December 2021,” she also said. She added the department is working to complete 2,000 permanent housing by Dec. 2020. The five-month conflict in Marawi City that started in May 2017, displaced at least 200,000 individuals, according to a United Nations report. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

PHL recovery to lag Asia Pacific

ASIA-PACIFIC economies will likely lead the global recovery in 2021, with the Philippines viewed as a laggard due to the outsized impact of the coronavirus on the economy, according to Moody’s Analytics.

In a note issued Thursday, Steven Cochrane, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the Philippines and India will have the “deepest holes to climb out of” in the region due to the extent of the damage done to their economies.

“The daily number of cases in the Philippines has come down from its peak in mid-August but has remained stable at a still uncomfortable level over 1,000 per day. So renewed investment into the Philippines likely will be delayed until there is further control and quarantines are eliminated or at least minimized,” Mr. Cochrane said in an e-mail to BusinessWorld.

Earlier this month, Moody’s Analytics revised its growth outlook for the Philippines to 6.2% from 7.8% to reflect a slower recovery due to the smaller-than-expected fiscal response to the crisis. For 2020, it expects gross domestic product to contract by 8.2%.

Better control over the pandemic, a gradual easing of restrictions, and improving trade makes the region’s recovery prospects more attractive than elsewhere, Mr. Cochrane said. However, some economies may not perform up to the regional standard.

“While it is easy to illustrate the region’s ability to contain the pandemic, there are local clusters that illustrate remaining risk within the region,” he said.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in the Philippines totaled 412,097 as of Wednesday, according to the Department of Health. The country has the second most number of cases in Southeast Asia following Indonesia with more than 478,000 cases.

By 2021, emerging markets in the region may benefit from more investment, assuming COVID-19 is better handled, and emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa continue to struggle with the economic consequences of the pandemic, Mr. Cochrane said.

Foreign direct investment into the Philippines rose on a year-on-year basis for a fourth consecutive month in August. Inflows during that month came in at $637 million, up 46.9% from a year earlier, according to the central bank.

However, net inflows dropped 5.6% year on year to $4.432 billion in the eight months to August.

To support growth prospects in 2021, Mr. Cochrane said resuming the infrastructure program will be helpful and will also boost employment in the near-term as long as social distancing measures are put in place.

“Once new cases go from the thousands to perhaps only double digits, work quickly to arrange travel lanes for business travelers and tourists from the largest sources of visitors, such as China, where the pandemic is under control,” Mr. Cochrane said. — Luz Wendy T. Noble

DoF’s Dominguez calls for ‘aggressive’ action to mitigate climate change

PHILSTAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

FINANCE Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III asked the Climate Change Commission (CCC) to be more aggressive in mitigating the impact of climate change, in the wake of consecutive calamities that have set back the economy even further while it is still dealing with the pandemic.

Five typhoons hit the Philippines this quarter, costing the economy P90 billion in lost output, the equivalent of reducing gross domestic product by 0.15 percentage points, according to initial estimates issued by the National Economic and Development Authority.

“Severe weather events inflict human, social, and economic costs on the Filipino people. We lose billions every year in damage to crops and infrastructure. These mounting losses dampen our overall economic progress. These costs will continue to accumulate unless we move fast on mitigation measures,” Mr. Dominguez said in a webinar arranged by the CCC Thursday for Climate Change Consciousness Week.

“I challenge the Climate Change Commission to more aggressively advocate for the protection of our environment. It should advance concrete policy proposals while building public awareness and public support,” he added.

The CCC is the government’s main policy-making body for coordinating, monitoring and aligning government programs with the goal of reducing climate change.

Mr. Dominguez backed “climate justice” within the international community, noting that the Philippines continued to be among those most severely affected by natural disasters intensified by climate change, even though it maintains a small carbon footprint compared to developed countries.

He said advanced economies should lead the global effort to trim carbon emissions.

“Even as we transition to more sustainable economic activities domestically, the Philippines must sustain calls for broader climate justice. President (Rodrigo R.) Duterte has already led the way. We in government must stand firmly behind the President in this fight,” he said.

Mr. Dominguez also stressed the need for better cooperation between national and local agencies to ensure more effective mitigation and disaster risk reduction efforts.

“We can use the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) crisis as an opportunity to tailor our economic recovery programs to mobilize investment in domestic renewable energy, sustainable urban planning, and climate-smart agriculture,” he said.

“Our rule should be simple: projects that are not green and sustainable should not see the light of day,” he added.

The Philippines’ top source of energy is coal, which accounts for 44.5% of power generated, according to 2015 Energy department data. Natural gas had a 22.9% share, and renewables combining for 25.4%.

According to the World Bank, the Philippines’ carbon dioxide emissions totaled 1.2 metric tons per capita in 2016.

The Energy department last month imposed a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants and allowed full foreign ownership of geothermal projects.

Mr. Dominguez has expressed support for a policy shift favoring clean and more sustainable sources of energy on the road to reducing dependence on coal.

The Philippines is among the most disaster-prone nations  in the world, according to the 2020 World Risk Index.

The World Bank estimated the country suffers P177 billion on average in losses to public and private assets due to typhoons and earthquakes each year. — Beatrice M. Laforga

Philippines commits to free-flowing trade in ASEAN essential goods

PHILSTAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

THE PHILIPPINES has signed on to an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) commitment to reduce trade restrictions on essential goods that help combat the pandemic.

The memorandum of understanding signed by Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez at the 19th ASEAN Economic Community Council Meeting on Nov. 10 hopes to reduce non-tariff measures and ensure information-sharing on trade among member states, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said in a statement Thursday.

Non-tariff measures are policy measures other than ordinary tariffs that potentially have an effect on the flow of international trade in goods. They include sanitary and price-control measures as well as border payment procedures.

Intended to ensure the continuous movement of essential goods across borders, the memorandum covers 152 tariff lines of medicine and medical supplies contained in the ASEAN List of Essential Goods.

Member states may still impose restrictions in cases of a public health emergency. Potential restrictions must conform with international trade obligations.

The DTI said that the agreement will help reduce export bans on medical goods in the region. Eighty economies had banned or limited exports of personal protective equipment like face masks during the early months of the pandemic, the World Trade Organization said in April.

The memorandum is part of the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework, a pandemic recovery plan that covers health system improvement, economic integration, and digital transformation.

The member states are also looking into expanding the essential goods list to cover food and agricultural products, DTI said.

“This action is a clear manifestation of ASEAN’s shared commitment in keeping markets open, ensure the unhampered flow of essential goods, and show economic resiliency amid COVID-19. We also see this as a positive development that will help the Philippine business community in trading with the region,” Mr. Lopez said. — Jenina P. Ibañez

Rice supply deemed sufficient despite typhoons — Dar

AGRICULTURE Secretary William D. Dar said the rice inventory is sufficient until the end of the year despite widespread crop damage caused by consecutive typhoons.

In a television interview Thursday, Mr. Dar said at the end of the year, the rice inventory will be good for 82 days’ demand despite the damage sustained by the agriculture sector.

“The current supply will bring us another 82 days’ worth of rice (starting) January 2021. After that, we will have new production that can be harvested by late March and April,” Mr. Dar said in an interview on ANC.

Mr. Dar said combined damage to the agriculture sector due to typhoons Quinta, Rolly, and Ulysses amounted to P12.3 billion.

“The three most affected regions are Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon), and Bicol,” Mr. Dar said.

As a result of the typhoon damage, Mr. Dar said the rice self-sufficiency rate fell to 90%, which means that 10% of rice demand must be sourced overseas in 2021.

“When you are only able to produce 90% of your requirement for rice, you always have to import the rest of that from other countries,” Mr. Dar said.

“That’s a given because we are not able to produce 100% of our rice requirement,” he added.

Asked when farmers can replant after the storm damage, Mr. Dar said replanting can start by the second of week of December, assuming no more typhoons for the rest of the year.

Mr. Dar said the Department of Agriculture (DA) has prepared almost P8 billion worth of agricultural inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and fingerlings for typhoon-affected farmers and fish farms.

He added that P1 billion worth of indemnification is available from the Philippine Crop Insurance Corp., for insured farmers listed in the Registry System for Basic Sectors in Agriculture.

The DA estimates that crop damage due to Typhoon Rolly (international name: Goni) is at P3.84 billion, with rice accounting for about half of the losses at P1.93 billion. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

SB Corp. sees 15,000 more small business loans processed by end-2020

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) plans to process an additional 15,000 loan applications for micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) affected by the pandemic before the end of 2020, falling short of its initial target.

Senators expressed concerns Wednesday about the delays in the release of loan funds during plenary deliberations on the 2021 national budget on Wednesday. Senator Juan Edgardo M. Angara said that only P1.2 billion in loans have been approved out of the P10 billion allocated to the department.

Under the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act (Bayanihan II) or Republic Act No. 11494, the DTI’s Small Business Corp. (SB Corp.) was allocated P10 billion for lending to MSMEs.

“With the improvement in our evaluation and approval system, we are now able to increase our evaluation capacity to around 15,000 in a month,” Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said in a statement Thursday.

“We have facilitated the processing to accommodate more MSMEs affected by the pandemic. We expect to release more loans to help businesses recover, especially as we gradually reopen the economy.”

The DTI said it has so far approved 17,167 loan applications amounting to P1.25 billion.

With the additional 15,000, SB Corp. would still fall short of its original target. SB Corp. in September said that it targeted 50,000 loan approvals over the rest of the year, or a monthly rate of 15,000 to 18,000 borrowers starting in October.  The Department of Budget and Management has released P8 billion of the P10-billion allocation to SB Corp. — Jenina P. Ibañez

US provides assistance for water security project

THE US government is supporting a P869-million project that will provide water security in Palawan, Negros Occidental and Sarangani.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) will provide technical assistance for the Safe Water project in those areas.

“The US government is proud to support the efforts of Palawan, Negros Occidental and Sarangani to achieve water security,” USAID Acting Mission Director Patrick Wesner said in a statement Thursday.

“USAID will work with partners to maximize the use of data and sound analytics to guide informed decision making, identify lasting solutions, and prioritize investments.”

The project hopes to increase access to water and sanitation services, improve water resource management and governance. It will also capacitate local communities in working towards the objective of delivering clean drinking water.

The memorandum of understanding was signed by Mr. Wesner, National Economic and Development Authority Assistant Director General Roderick M. Planta, Palawan Governor Jose Chaves Alvarez, Negros Occidental Governor Eugenio Jose V. Lacson and Sarangani Governor Steve Chiongbian Solon.

The project will also involve USAID’s implementing partner DAI Global LLC as well as the private sector and non-government organizations, such as the Philippine Business for Social Progress, Water.org, Mahintana Foundation, Inc., Conrado and Ladislawa Alcantara Foundation, Inc., and the Foundation for a Sustainable Society, Inc.

USAID last month also provided some P170 million worth of financial aid to various communities to help them deal with natural disasters, such as earthquakes, typhoons and floods. These communities were located in Metro Manila, Northern Samar, and Maguindanao.

The US government has extended more than P1 billion in aid to help address the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. — Charmaine A. Tadalan

Ulysses is another wake-up call

The fourth in the month of November, Typhoon Ulysses was aptly named. Like the hero of Homer’s Odyssey, it meandered through a vast expanse of land and sea. Its broad rain band deluged almost a third of the Philippine archipelago, and as it crossed Luzon its winds destroyed crops and left entire provinces and regions in ruins, while the floods its waters brought cost thousands their homes and belongings and even took the lives of, at the latest count, 73 Filipinos.

Whether flood, earthquake, fire, or volcanic eruption, every disaster swells the ranks of the poor and makes the already needy even more destitute. Typhoon Ulysses was even more devastating than its predecessors in the number of deaths it left behind, its adding to the numbers of the poor in these islands, and making the already desperate straits of thousands even worse.

It left little doubt that the lives of hundreds of thousands have been devastated by its power. But it is not only the destruction it wrought and how this or that government agency claims to be responding to it that should occupy the populace in its aftermath. As the fourth typhoon to smash into the Philippines during this month of uncertainty, Ulysses and its severe weather antecedents are another wake-up call among many others for government to address the urgent need to improve its disaster preparedness beyond rescuing survivors, counting the dead, and enumerating how many are in evacuation centers and receiving food packs.

Even more urgent is cutting the number of casualties and limiting the economic consequences of calamities by proactively making sure that there will be fewer or no deaths the next time, and that the livelihoods and property of the populace are protected enough so fewer survivors add to the already burgeoning legions of Philippine poor.

There have indeed been other reminders of the urgency of that need. There was Typhoon Ondoy in 2009. Last year, six earthquakes and two mega-typhoons cost the Philippines hundreds of deaths and the loss of billions in the agricultural sector and in infrastructure damage. Thousands became poor and poorer from those catastrophes, and added their number to the already huge total of Filipinos — estimated at some 21.9 million — already in dire need.

These catastrophes won’t be the last. It is not only because the Philippines is home to 24 active volcanoes and is in the Pacific Right of Fire, but also because of the increasing frequency of typhoons’ making landfall and their growing intensity that global warming is generating.

In 2017 the government’s own National Anti-Poverty Commission (NAPC) warned that from 50 to 60 million more people could be suddenly impoverished by the loss of employment, the death of a breadwinner, a serious and costly illness, or — as the next months after typhoons Rolly, Siony, Tonyo, and Ulysses will be demonstrating — the vagaries of nature.

Some of these perils can be mitigated by sound public policy. The impact on families of the sudden loss of employment many have experienced because of the COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, could have been eased by government aid, but that supposed policy has been erratically implemented, with thousands complaining that they have not received the promised assistance. In addition to that predicament is the loss of homes and belongings from flooding that has mostly afflicted the poor and disadvantaged.

Sound public policies can help prevent the economic and social catastrophes that further impoverish the poor. But natural disasters cannot be prevented and are a fact of existence in this country. The Philippines is ninth in the world among the countries most at risk from natural disasters. Not only is 70% of its population likely to lose homes, crops, kin and even their own lives to them. It is also among the most likely, as Ulysses and company have proven, to suffer the effects of global warming. But even more powerful typhoons will endanger the population, say climatologists, and parts of the Philippine landmass, if not all of it, can even go underwater as the polar ice caps melt and sea levels rise.

That global warming can be remedied only by the worst polluter countries’ reining in the greed of their corporations, their consumption of fossil fuels and their use of coal does not mean that nothing can be done by countries like the Philippines that do not have the same economic power as China and the US. Their impact on people’s lives and society as a whole can be mitigated by a coherent, well thought-out national disaster mitigation plan.

Such a plan can be crafted only by an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral commission of environmentalists, climatologists, hydrologists, communication specialists, economists, social welfare experts, political scientists, engineers, and other authorities in their respective fields. If it is to succeed, the commission cannot be composed of ineffectual bureaucrats in office solely for their services, closeness to, and collaboration with power. It is equally necessary to provide sufficient funds not only to enable the government to provide disaster victims assistance but also to allow the commission to complete and implement its disaster mitigation strategy.

That strategy could include the construction of the permanent, earthquake- and flood-proof evacuation centers that have long been proposed by climatologists in the country’s most disaster-prone areas such as Eastern Luzon, the Bicol region, Eastern Samar, and Leyte. Levees and dikes could also be erected along the country’s major rivers, those rivers dredged, and a system of offshore water gates to mitigate the impact of storm surges built.

Environmentally destructive activities such as logging and quarrying should be stopped. Government infrastructure projects like dam-building in critical areas must be abandoned, and raising the capacity of existing dams seriously considered. Because information is vital during emergencies — some residents in affected areas complain that they had no access to free TV and radio and were therefore unprepared when Ulysses smashed into their communities — the commission should recommend, and work for, the reorientation of government policy away from its present anti-free expression and press freedom focus to the protection of those rights.

Rather than spend millions on such Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) follies as the crushed dolomite beach project in Manila Bay, as proposed by the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute (UP-MSI), the Bay periphery could be planted to mangrove to rejuvenate its waters and help reduce the impact of the storm surges that usually flood Manila’s, Batangas’, Cavite’s and other areas’ shorelines.

The country can no longer afford the reactive, patchwork, often delayed and limited response of the government. The number and increasing power of the calamities that struck the country this year and their undeniably widespread impact should provide proof enough of both the inadequacy of the P15-billion disaster response budget for 2020, and of the need for a proactive response to the Philippine manifestations of the global warming threat to all of humanity.

In recognition of their all too obvious limitations, the officials of this government can best serve the nation by engaging experts in the tasks of disaster mitigation and in developing a comprehensive national plan to address calamities. They can also funnel to its crafting and implementation the trillions in locally-sourced funds and the billions in foreign aid and loans that every year are dissipated on infrastructure and other projects that are of little benefit to the people. Ulysses’ wake-up call shall have then served its purpose.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Green shoots and mobility: Philippine economic prospects

 

On July 16, we wrote about what many believed to be the three initial signs of business revival after several months of the pandemic. They were the slower decline in external trade, the softer drop in manufacturing output and expansion in capacity utilization, all in May. We called these green shoots, but not quite at the time.

Updates on these backward-looking indicators would point to some promising improvements eight months into the pandemic. But it remains a mixed bag.

Based on their performance in the third quarter against the second quarter this year, there was strong recovery in both total trade and production volume. Year on year, however, both of them continued to decline although at a slower pace.

Capacity utilization was compressed from 84.3% in the first three quarters of 2019 to 75% in the same period this year.

Looking ahead, it’s likely to see some modest recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and next year but for one important issue. The so-called economic scars. Last week, we wrote that the IMF had already documented that the lockdown in the Philippines produced weak results so an early opening was ill-advised. Infections remained widespread. Re-opening took time and as a result, we suffered one of the deepest recessions in the world. The narrative was very simple for the Philippines. While we faced the pandemic with good macroeconomic buffers, our public health system was our Achilles’ heel. Testing, tracing, quarantining and treating took off like a diesel engine of the old variety.

In the recent panel discussion during the opening session of the 58th Annual Meeting and Conference of the Philippine Economic Society, we suggested that these findings for the Philippines establish the sad outcome of the so-called “voluntary social distancing.” Business and entertainment activities remain weak because people continue to be afraid of the virus and what it can inflict on them.

In getting the virus, people anticipate prolonged quarantine and therefore economic lockdown. Chat groups in Viber and Messenger abound with stories of sudden death and millions of pesos in expenses with very little help from the public treasury. One single misstep could be the tipping point to the beyond. A fairly intelligent person would therefore avoid doing what he would normally do including shopping at the malls, eating out, and doing some travels.

Recent mobility data continue to support this change in human behavior.

Google mobility indicators, for instance, appear to be showing some signs of life. Turnaround point was between May and June. However, looking at more granular data, we see that mobility in public transport hubs and workplaces has remained flat. In places of residence, Google indicators show even downward mobility.

Other mobility trend indicators are also showing the same narrative. Apple mobility trends whether for driving, transit or walking are consistent with mileage-based Waze indicators: some slight increase but nowhere close to pre-COVID-19 levels.

These mobility markers would have been excellent leading indicators of the third quarter results of the national income accounts. The lower propensity of people to move around translated into a huge decline in private consumption, gross investment and even net trade. Real GDP further dropped by 11.5% from the second quarter’s decline of 16.9%. For the first nine months of 2020, real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 10% compared to year-ago growth of 5.8%. The early business revival projected in the third quarter did not materialize.

Adjusted for inflation, national output shrank from P14.1 trillion to P12.7 trillion. With the population steadily growing by 1.4%, each Filipino received his share of the total output that is smaller by 11%. What is worse is that unemployment doubled from 5.4% in July 2019 to 10% in July 2020. This means for every 100 people in the labor force, 10 are out of work. This is not surprising because average capacity utilization shrank.

Since these three high frequency mobility indicators already cover part of November 2020, and the picture remains one of limited mobility, we are not therefore too sanguine about the prospects for the last three months of 2020.

While backward-looking, financial data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) provide us with additional forward-looking insights. During this pandemic, people would rather keep their money in the banks rather than engage in bonds, stocks or business. But banks have chosen to be procyclical: they tightened rather than eased their lending standards in this downcycle and lending rates remained elevated despite the accommodative monetary policy stance of the authorities.

As of September, loans outstanding, net of placements in BSP’s overnight instruments, grew by a measly 2.8% versus last year’s 10.5%. Yet, deposit liabilities continued to grow double digit at 10.6%, almost double last year’s 5.4%. With banks absorbing more deposits, they maintained their viability only by turning around and lending at a high interest rate and depositing their excess funds with the BSP or buying government securities, which they all did. Deposit rates, whether savings or time, were half of their levels last year. In effect, savers are penalized and if this is to carry over to future periods, both capital formation and growth may be undermined.

Policy-wise, further monetary accommodation will be good only for signaling purposes but its efficacy is questionable because credit remains weak. The extra liquidity released to the system simply flows back to and at the expense of the BSP itself. The transmission of monetary policy is hamstrung by the pandemic’s debilitating effect on human behavior.

Thus, we cannot agree more with Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez’ statement yesterday that “the government needs to address the stagnant consumer confidence that places a drag on the pace of the nation’s recovery.” He was correct in clarifying that confidence remains a function of our public health capacity. But recent findings in the Philippine Senate are not exactly encouraging. As the press reported “despite having nearly double the minimum required number of contact tracers for COVID-19 cases, the Philippines’ contact tracing campaign remains weak and inefficient.” This is hardly the way to inspire consumer and business confidence.

It will be enormously confidence-boosting if we see both a repurposing of many lump sum items in the 2021 budget to health and education and targeted infrastructure as well as firm fiscal support. While government final consumption was just over 10% of private consumption in 2019, this actually doubled in the first three quarters of 2020. Public construction also contributed significantly to gross capital formation and growth with more than one-on-one multiplier effects. Having strong fiscal response can help pandemic mitigation buoy up public confidence.

The only drawback is absorptive capacity. The pandemic scare, exacerbated by Ulysses, would not allow public works to continue in affected areas, floods restrict movement of people and materials. Crowded spaces are not allowed by health protocols. We cannot just simply spend our way to quick economic recovery as some would suggest.

We are not quite certain about the present trajectories of both the business cycle and the financial cycle. But the challenge for the whole of society is to sustain the improvement in pandemic mitigation with steady monetary and ample fiscal support to avoid a convergence of these two cycles in the downturn. We would not want to discount what the glitter of Christmas lights and decor could do to heal consumer spending and empower business spirit.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former Deputy Governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Grief in the time of the pandemic

One of the well-attended webinar topics in the Ako Para Sa Bata online conference was “How to handle grief.”

The panel had distinguished psychiatrist and UP Professor Emeritus Dr. Cornelio G. Banaag on Grief recovery and Mental First Aid, and Grief and transitions coach-author Catherine Sanchez-Babao. The moderator was pediatrician Dr. Michellaine Taup Tolentino.

Dr. Banaag opened the discussion on grief that will give us “a better understanding of what it is like to have lost someone in the COVID. How we can understand children who have gone through this sad arena of grief. Grief unspoken can leave a very long lasting impact in our lives.” He introduced Ms. Babao, a popular columnist and a lecturer at Ateneo University on the dynamics of grief in the Filipino context.

Grief is defined as “a response to loss that affects our physical, emotional, behavioral, social, financial and spiritual lives… a constellation of feelings and emotions.” It occurs when there is a death or any important loss. Among them: the loss of routine and freedom, employment, income, the ability to freely visit loved ones and friends, the chance to be present when people are dying or grieving.

Grief literacy is the capacity to access, process and use knowledge regarding the experience of loss.

Mourning is the expression “grief gone public.” It is a process required for healing.

We have had what are called “bad deaths” during the pandemic. The bereaved family members have difficulty grieving. They have heightened psychological symptoms because of the inability to say “goodbye” and to be together in the traditional rituals that provide support and solace. We have to be creative and use virtual platforms.

The World Health Organization identified the stressors: “Social isolation, financial problems, health concerns, worries about other family members, death of other friends and family, and anxiety about one’s own mortality.”

The pain of loss is magnified during this time. The accumulation of losses overwhelms the bereaved.

We should increase grief literacy. One should be aware of one’s own experience and understand it. There are many forms of grief and it is unique for each individual. There are no stages in grief.

“It is ok not to be ok.”

The skills needed are:

Compassionate listening. Asking questions in a sensitive manner. Helping the grieving individual find resources.

Connection. We should reach out through letters and cards or send packages when possible. Most people connect via text, phone calls, video chat or social media. Grief cannot be fixed. We can offer our attention and time to reduce the feeling of isolation.

Children need special attention and help. One should listen well. Ask them what they know and feel. Do not assume what they know based on their age. The experts say, “A child old enough to love is old enough to grieve.”

In explaining death, “the goal is to provide an age-appropriate understanding of what happened so that the child can begin to come to terms with the finality and consequences of the death.” One should provide the essential facts about the death and circumstances. Allow the child to ask questions (omit the graphic details). Keep the family routines intact as much as possible. One can plan opportunities for positive experiences, as a family. Meeting friends is not possible during this time.

Let children know that showing their feelings is ok. Show them how you cope. It is good for them to cry and talk with friends. Seek spiritual comfort and remember good things about the person who died. Have conversations with your children. Most important is to have an emotional and physical presence. Hug and talk. Show support to children and teens and adults so that they can cope with their loss.

Children express their feelings by using play and creative activities, drawing, writing. These artworks provide clues. Let them explain their art. Anger is a normal and natural response. Children can have physical activities such as sports or dancing. But they should not express anger by hitting or hurting others.

Hope and resilience are essential to survival in coping with COVID-19 related loss. “We can help families reorient hope…”

There is overwhelming despair. We need energy to rebuild lives; we need to cope in the midst of uncertainty. Studies show that resilience is developed by “focusing to master the possible, accepting that which is beyond control, and coming to terms with what cannot be changed.”

“Practice the art of the possible. Do all you can, with what you have, in the time you have, in the place you are.”

In the Q&A, the lack of sleep and memories were discussed. Dr. Banaag said, “It could be part of a depression. It is the effect of the pandemic weighing heavily on us.”

Prolonged sleep-deprivation can lead to anxiety disorder and depression. There are good sleep-aids and physicians can prescribe sedatives.

Dr. Banaag said, “We have to recognize that a certain age, like very young children, the expression of grief waxes and wanes. When they are with friends, they play. But when they are alone, they feel the sadness. At night, they cry and look at the picture of the parent… We should not be deceived by the fact that they can play.

“There are snippets of memories… A lost parent is carried in the mind. They talk to the parent. This is the richness of the imagination of childhood. They carry the memory and talk to their parent,” he explained. We lose the imagination when we grow older. “The child builds and forms the image of the lost parent in her own memory.” From what others say. “Children are like sponges. We want every child to reserve and carry a good memory of the parent.”

“Most of us in the helping profession are wounded. We have to touch people with compassion.”

“Reinvest into something. Remove the emotional investment in the person who died. We need to do that. We need to reengage in the realities around us.

“Grief is a work of the heart and the mind,” Dr. Banaag stated.

A delegate asked, “When am I healed?”

“Reconcile with your loss and look forward. And reinvest. There is no chronology in grief. Hang on. Keep the hope. Kindness and compassion,” Ms. Babao said.

Dr. Banaag added, “We feel compassion and grief and we don’t talk about that… We work with abused children…

“Grief and depression are similar. One is a normal process that we all go through. There is a difference between sadness expressing grief. Depression is an illness.

“Clinical depression could run parallel to grief. Grief needs to be expressed.”

Dr. Banaag thanked the organizers, Child Protection Network (CPN), for making this discussion possible. “We should be mindful of how we are getting traumatized. I am deeply grateful to them (CPN) and to Cathy for taking this topic and walking us through this painful process …in confronting our own grief. This has given us an opportunity to have practical tips on how to help others and to help one another,” Dr. Banaag remarked.

The webinar on grief had 3,000 attendees on Zoom and FaceBook live. (According to the registration, 48% of the audience has experienced grief in the pandemic.)

Ako Para Sa Bata webinars, presented by Child Protection Network and UNICEF, will run every Tuesday and Thursday from 10 to 11:30 a.m. until Nov. 24.

 

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

Time for the Senate to look into RCEP

The big news is last weekend’s signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. Touted as the world’s biggest free trade agreement, the RCEP is said to promise gazillions for the Philippines.

On paper the RCEP does seem impressive, covering (according to a Joint Leaders statement) “a market of 2.2 billion people, or almost 30% of the world’s population, with a combined GDP of 26.2 trillion US dollars or about 30% of global GDP.”

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez was also reported by BusinessWorld as saying that “the RCEP will further broaden the Philippines’ economic engagements with its trading partners through improved trade and investment, enhanced transparency, integrated regional supply chains, and strengthened economic cooperation.”

And yet, it still needs to be asked: what does RCEP really do for the Philippines? The question is appropriate due to the obtuseness of the proceedings and (until recently) text of the agreement (a copy though can now be seen at the ASEAN website).

India, it should be remembered, pulled out of the RCEP negotiations over concerns the intellectual property provisions unduly restrict its ability to provide cheaper medicines for its citizens. There are also worries of Chinese goods flooding the market, either by way of dumping or an outright import surge.

And for all of RCEP’s vaunted GDP coverage, a free trade agreement however is about trade. And the RCEP on that score merely accounts for “28% of global trade (based on 2019 figures)” of countries at varying degrees of development.

It’s also a fairly intricate, complicated document, covering 20 chapters (not counting the opening and signing section), plus four Annexes of country “Schedules.” It covers the usual (e.g., trade in goods, rules of origin, services, etc.), as well as some relatively new areas (e-commerce and SME’s).

Notably, the RCEP is without the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, which proved so controversial it became one of the reasons the United States pulled out of the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership). The RCEP does not, however, close itself off to the idea: member countries promised to look again into the matter within two years after the agreement enters into force.

The RCEP membership itself is something needing examination. Set aside the fact that our closest security ally, the US, is excluded from the agreement, the Philippines already has free trade agreements with all of the RCEP countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand. What the RCEP brings is that the other FTA’s don’t need further elucidation.

Right there should also raise concerns on what this “noodle bowl” of trade agreements has on our overworked bureaucracy. The depth and complexity of RCEP leads to further questions on Philippine companies’ capacity for utilization of benefits. After all, we’re still trying to attain the rewards promised by AFTA, JPEPA, and others.

Which should lead to an examination on whether there’s still a need for the Philippines to be part of the previous agreements should the RCEP prove beneficial.

Then there’s the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which at least could add for the Philippines new free trading partners like Canada, Peru, Mexico, and Chile.

It’s also doubtful, particularly in these times when the Philippines is struggling at all levels with this COVID-19 pandemic, whether people are actually aware of the RCEP and its implications for the country.

The possible issue, then, confronting RCEP is “adverse selection.” It refers roughly to a situation whereby a possible wrong decision is made due to the absence of information, perhaps asymmetric information, or even wrong information.

The important next step thus is to ensure the Senate looks into the RCEP.

Executive Order No. 459/s.1997 allows the Department of Foreign Affairs to determine whether an agreement is an executive agreement or a treaty. The Supreme Court had occasion to affirm this authority, both when ruling on the country’s accession to the Protocol Relating to the Madrid Agreement Concerning the International Registration of Marks, as well as its ruling on EDCA.

There’s also Section 1609 of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act, by which Congress authorized the president to enter into “trade agreements with foreign governments or instrumentalities thereof” for the purpose of “expanding foreign markets for Philippine products as a means of assisting in the economic development of the country, in overcoming domestic unemployment, in increasing the purchasing power of the Philippine peso, and in establishing and maintaining better relations between the Philippines and other countries.”

Undoubtedly, the foregoing should not override the Constitution’s Article VII.21 provision, requiring treaties to be “concurred in by at least two-thirds of all the Members of the Senate.” Free trade agreements, like the RCEP, are treaties. Note that the Philippine-European Free Trade Association Free Trade Agreement (PH-Efta FTA) needed Senate concurrence.

So, like the present lockdown, even assuming the RCEP does bring benefits, the more important question is: at what cost?

 

Jemy Gatdula is a Senior Fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence.

jemygatdula@yahoo.com

www.jemygatdula. blogspot.com

facebook.com/jemy.gatdula

Twitter @jemygatdula

Top seed Barangay Ginebra shoots for 2-0 semis series lead vs Meralco

By Michael Angelo S. Murillo, Senior Reporter

DREW first blood in their best-of-five PBA Philippine Cup semifinal bid, the Barangay Ginebra San Miguel Kings look to create further distance from the Meralco Bolts in Game Two on Friday at the Angeles University Foundation (AUF) Arena in Pampanga.

The top seeds Kings strolled to a 96-79 victory in the series-opener with a balanced effort, punctuated by six players finishing in double-digit scoring.

It was a close match in the opening quarter before Barangay Ginebra cranked its attack up in the middle quarters to create a comfortable cushion.

Meralco tried to make a last-ditch attempt for a comeback in the final frame, but Barangay Ginebra was not to allow it much headway on the way to securing the win.

Stanley Pringle bannered the Kings’ scoring parade with 19 points to go along with seven rebounds.

Scottie Thompson had a near triple-double of 13 points, nine rebounds and eight assists while rookie Arvin Tolentino also had 13 markers.

LA Tenorio and Aljon Mariano had 11 points each, with Prince Caperal adding 10 for Barangay Ginebra.

For Meralco, it was Allein Maliksi who top-scored with 24 points, followed by Chris Newsome with 13.

Postgame, Kings coach Tim Cone pointed out that the longer rest period afforded them entering the semifinals helped the team to come out with more spring in their game.

“We were able to rest and prepare and it helped us,” said Mr. Cone, whose team was the first through the semifinals after barging in on Friday as opposed to the Bolts who still had to play on Sunday to book their place in the semifinals.

“The players made full use of the time we had and came out with a solid team game,” he added.

The Kings go for the 2-0 series lead in the game set for 3:45 p.m.

OTHER SEMIS
Meanwhile, the TNT Tropang Giga also go for a 2-0 series advantage in their own joust with the Phoenix Super LPG Fuel Masters.

TNT bucked a slow start before riding the late heroics of veteran Jayson Castro to get their semifinal push in the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) All-Filipino tournament on a winning note, 95-92.

It was nip-and-tuck heading into the last two minutes of the contest, with the Tropang Giga ahead by just one point, 87-86.

Mr. Castro then took over the attack of TNT, scoring seven of his team’s last eight points to keep Phoenix at bay en route to the victory.

The seasoned TNT guard finished with a team-high 20 points, paired with six rebounds and six assists.

Ray Parks, Jr. ended up with 17 points while Roger Pogoy had 16.

For Phoenix, it was RJ Jazul who showed the way with 21 markers.

The Fuel Masters played much of the contest without leading scorer Matthew Wright, who hurt his right ankle in the first quarter and did not come back.

He, however, is expected to play in Game Two set for 6:30 p.m.