IN BRIEF:
• Banking risk management is being shaped by interconnected risks driven by innovation, technological change, geopolitical instability, and the expanding role of private capital and non-bank finance. These forces blur the distinction between financial and non-financial risks and heighten vulnerability to shocks.
• As a backdrop to this, regulation is becoming increasingly fragmented and localized, adding to the overall complexity of the risk management landscape. Divergent interpretations of global standards for prudential, digital, AI, and sustainability regulations raise compliance costs, complicate risk measurements and aggregation, and constrain strategic planning.
• To manage risks, banks are shifting from a sole focus on capital strength toward a broader focus on resilience and capability building.
Banking risk management is being shaped by threats that are non-linear, continually accelerated by technology and innovation, intensified by volatility, and tightly interconnected across markets, institutions, and jurisdictions.
The recently published 15th annual EY/IFF Global Bank Risk Management Survey highlights this shift, which is influencing the agenda of chief risk officers (CROs) worldwide. The survey notes that traditional risks are making a comeback and the ways in which they emerge and transmit through banks have changed.
Geopolitical tensions, technology and innovation, and the growth of private capital are also driving opportunities and exposures. At the same time, regulation is becoming more localized, increasing compliance and operational costs for banks. Together, these forces are reshaping the capabilities, resources, and strategies of banks as they navigate this landscape.
This is the third article of the SGV Financial Regulatory Outlook series, which builds on insights from the SGV Knowledge Institute event, “Global Shifts, Local Impact: Navigating the Next Wave of Banking Regulation.”
RE-EMERGING TOP RISKS
With the promise of improved productivity, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being deployed. Digitization has also allowed for better access to financial services, furthering financial inclusion for sectors of the economy that need it most. With this comes heightened concerns about cybersecurity, digital fraud, and financial crime, all reported in the survey as top risks for the world’s CROs.
Additionally, geopolitical instability is seen as a powerful external force shaping risk management strategies. It moves through banks in interconnected chains. It first affects market sentiment, raising uncertainty and leading to changes in investor confidence. It then affects formal economic channels, whether through consequent trade or financial restrictions, or physical disruption. This leads to possible supply chain disruptions, rising levels of sovereign debt, a decline in aggregate demand, and an overall increase in prices that deter growth and trade. These risks then make their way into the balance sheet, affecting credit, liquidity, funding, and market risks — ultimately translating into pressure on capital adequacy. However, their impact extends beyond financial risks, also affecting overall operations and governance.
In the Philippines, the recent geopolitical shock coming from the Middle East is already making waves through supply chain disruptions, placing upward pressure on the price of fuel. As a primary input, higher fuel prices will in turn increase the prices of necessities, leading to a budget squeeze and a fall in overall disposable income. Tighter budgets mean weaker debt-servicing capacity and overall credit demand. Over time, this materializes in the bank’s purview due to implications in asset quality, credit growth, and liquidity conditions.
Credit risk is also making a comeback as a top concern through a combination of traditional financial concerns, rising defaults linked to geopolitical instability and market developments, and the rise of private credit. Private credit or non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) has taken a more prominent role in the industry, raising concerns about the unregulated “shadow banking” system.
In the Philippines, this is especially relevant given the rise of fintechs which, while expanding access beyond traditional financing, also expands the entities covered under non-bank finance to include startups that enable peer-to-peer lending, pool savings, and profit credit. The local environment is made even more complicated given the distinction between NBFIs with quasi-banking licenses (e.g., investment houses and trust companies) and those without (e.g., pawnshops and remittance companies)
REGULATORY FRAGMENTATION AS A RISK MULTIPLIER
Acting as an overlay to these top risks is the fragmented regulatory landscape. Global standards are being localized, leading to differing interpretations and implications. This is not only in prudential regulation, but also in the areas of AI, sustainable finance, digital assets, and payments.
The shifting regulations highlight shifting priorities for localities while increasing complexities for multinational entities. According to the survey, regulatory fragmentation is expected to increase compliance and operational costs, exacerbate challenges in data management reporting, and lead to difficulties in risk aggregation and measurement. Banks will not only deal with the inherent risk of operations but also consider the costs and opportunities of doing business in specific countries or regions owing to diverging regulations. This confluence of changing top risks and regulation is pushing banks beyond balance sheet defense.
SHIFTING STRATEGIES
Today’s top risks are increasingly non-financial while also driving financial risks. Strong capital planning is indeed still necessary, but it is no longer sufficient on its own.
The survey emphasizes increased resilience as a top strategy to manage geopolitical risks and diverging regulations. In the Philippines, the recent BSP Circular 1203 on Operational Resilience espouses a move beyond continuity planning, stressing the identification of critical operations and systems, mapping of dependences, definition of tolerances, scenario testing, and overall recovery capabilities.
Moreover, managing this new complex risk landscape requires an emphasis on skills around new technologies as well as different team structures. According to the survey, top skillsets for risk management include digital acumen, adaptability to a changing risk environment, understanding the enabling role of risk management, having a deeper specialization in at least one domain, and critical soft skills such as leadership, communication, and collaboration.
FROM RISK AWARENESS TO RISK STRATEGIES
The risk landscape is being shaped not by a single shock, but by a convergence of multiple external shocks materializing through new and traditional risks. This is happening against a backdrop of increased regulatory fragmentation. As countries continue to prioritize localization, banks are managing compliance not as a set of global standards, but as a portfolio of specific local and regional regulations.
Managing this complex environment requires a change in mindset. The banks that navigate these risks will not be the ones that control every risk, but those that build capabilities to anticipate change, identify transmission channels, and embed resilience in strategy, operations, and resources.
This time is different. Resilience is not just about stability; it’s about sustained adaptability.
This article is for general information only and is not a substitute for professional advice where the facts and circumstances warrant. The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of SGV & Co.
Samantha Joy U. Cinco is a financial services consulting senior director of SGV & Co.