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Mbappé winner as France beats Spain in Nations League final

MILAN — World champions France won the Nations League final with goals from Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappé earning them a 2-1 win over Spain at the San Siro stadium on Sunday.

Didier Deschamps side had struggled to get a foothold in the game during a first half dominated by Spain, but after going a goal down, following Mikel Oyarzabal’s strike, they came alive.

With Paul Pogba excellent in midfield, Mbappé’s speed and movement stretching Spain and Benzema a constant threat, the French were good value for their victory.

“We showed our character against a very strong team. We never gave up,” said Benzema.

“It shows what great teams do — never panic, be patient and wait for the right time.”

Luis Enrique’s young Spain side, who had beaten European champions Italy in the semifinals, had played their trademark possession football with patience and precision, but in the end could not compensate for the absence of a genuine striker.

“It was a difficult defeat,” said Spain’s France-born defender Aymeric Laporte.

“We have proven to be a great team despite our youth, we have shown better football than them, but what counts is the result.”

The first half was a relatively subdued affair with Spain moving the ball well, but without dangerous penetration while France were disrupted by the loss to injury of center-half Raphaël Varane.

But both sides were awoken after the break when France full-back Theo Hernández thundered a shot against the underside of the bar after a swift break.

Spain responded to that warning in clinical fashion, taking the lead when Oyarzabal latched on to a long pass from Sergio Busquets, held off Dayot Upamecano and fired into the bottom corner.

The French response was swift, however, with Mbappé finding Benzema who cut inside before unleashing a brilliant curling shot into the far corner to make it 1-1.

Mbappé then grabbed the winner, 10 minutes from the end, racing on to a through ball from Hernandez and keeping his cool to slot past Unai Simón.

Spain protested that Mbappé was offside when he received the ball, but the video assistant referee (VAR) check found a slight touch from defender Eric García had played the France striker onside.

France had keeper Hugo Lloris to thank for two late saves as Deschamps’s side held on for the victory against intense Spanish pressure.

Lloris got down well to keep out a low shot from Oyarzabal in the 89th minute and then in stoppage time he reacted superbly to parry a strike from substitute Yeremi Pino.

Nations League, in just its second edition, remains clearly Union of European Football Associations’ (UEFA) secondary tournament for national sides, as the Italian fans singing of their team’s Euro 2020 triumph reminded, but that didn’t dampen France’s celebrations.

“We did not get off to a good start; we were dominated and waited until the first goal to react,” said Pogba, who was crucial to France’s response.

“We know we have to do better. But if it’s the way we have to win, so be it. Winning a trophy is always good. We’re always hungry for those,” he added.

Earlier on Sunday, Italy had claimed third-place in the Final Four tournament by beating Belgium 2-1 in Turin. — Reuters

Messi scores unusual goal as Argentina beats Uruguay 3-0

BUENOS AIRES — Two goals in the minutes before half time, one of them an unusually fortunate counter from Lionel Messi, helped Argentina on their way to a comfortable 3-0 win over Uruguay in a World Cup qualifier on Sunday.

Eight minutes before the break, Messi floated a 35-meter pass into the area, but it was missed by both advancing striker Nicolás González and goalkeeper Fernando Muslera and somehow sneaked into the net.

Six minutes later, Lautaro Martínez swung and missed at a chance on the edge of the box, but the loose ball fell into the path of Rodrigo De Paul who made no mistake.

Martinez made up for the miss when he converted a low cross from De Paul 17 minutes into the second half.

“We played a great game,” said Messi. “Everything worked out perfectly.”

“Uruguay waits for you and they generate danger. Once we got the first goal, we started to find space and the goals appeared.”

The win, combined with Brazil’s 0-0 draw at Colombia earlier in the day, narrows the gap between leaders Brazil and second-placed Argentina to six points at the top of the 10-team South American qualifying group.

The top four teams qualify automatically for Qatar and the fifth-placed side go into an inter-regional playoff.

Uruguay, who ended the day fourth in the 10-team table, were unbeaten in eight matches coming into Sunday’s match.

They took the game to their rivals, with Luis Suarez coming close on three occasions in the first half hour, including one thunderous shot that came back off the post.

Argentina grew as the game went on, though, and Giovani Lo Celso missed a golden chance to open the scoring when he rounded the goalkeeper, but delayed before striking a shot that hit the underside of the bar and the goal line before rolling to safety.

After the home side drew first blood, they never looked like losing an unbeaten run that now stands at 24 games.

Edinson Cavani came on in the second half for Uruguay, but it was Argentina who had the better chances in an entertaining game that featured only 15 fouls and no cautions.

Messi came close to getting his second and substitute Ángel Di María could have made it four on two occasions only to twice see Muslera parry his goalbound shots.

Elsewhere, Chile won for the first time in eight qualifying matches to keep their slender hopes of qualifying for Qatar alive.

Ben Brereton and Mauricio Isla scored in the 68th and 72nd minutes to lift the Chileans, who missed out on Russia in 2018, on to 11 points, just five behind fifth-placed Colombia.

Charles Aránguiz was sent off two minutes later for the home side, but Paraguay could not make their late advantage count and they had their own player sent off in the final minute when Omar Alderete saw red. — Reuters

Red-hot Jin Young Ko makes history with Founders Cup win

JIN Young Ko of South Korea wrote her name in the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) Tour record book not once, but twice on Sunday as she authored a wire-to-wire victory at the Cognizant Founders Cup in West Caldwell, NJ.

Ko’s 5-under 66 lifted her to 18 under for a four-shot victory over Germany’s Caroline Masson. It was Ko’s 14th straight round in the 60s, tying Annika Sorenstam’s LPGA record.

What’s more, Ko went 114 straight holes without making a bogey or worse until she bogeyed No. 17  on Sunday. It’s the longest such streak on record for either the LPGA or Professional Golfers’ Association (PGA) Tour, breaking Tiger Woods’ mark of 110 bogey-free holes.

Ko said a bogey-free round was her goal on Sunday morning, but she wasn’t necessarily thinking about the records in play and the names attached to them.

“I just focus, despite the others like Tiger Woods or Annika Sorenstam,” Ko said. “I just play by myself… I don’t know what happened to me. I don’t know. I just have fun. I’m just trying to have fun on the course with my caddie and the other players.”

Ko, 26, defended her title at the Founders Cup, which she won in 2019 at Wildfire Golf Club in Phoenix. The World No. 2 has won three tournaments in her last seven starts.

It marked Ko’s 10th career win on tour, making her the fifth Korean player to post double-digit victories.

Masson posted the low round of the day, a spotless 64 with seven birdies, to move into second.

“I can’t tell you how big this is,” Masson said. “It’s been a little bit rough this summer. Honestly, like mentally it was really, really tough stretch, probably the toughest in my career.

“So to come back out and have a good week last week and feel like I’m getting really close — you know, I know I’m pretty far away from winning this week score-wise, but it was pretty close. Pretty amazing. Just got to thank everybody on my team for being there for me.”

Elizabeth Szokol (69) overcame a double bogey-bogey stretch on the fourth and fifth holes to secure third place at 11 under. Jeongeun Lee6 of South Korea (67) and Yuka Saso of the Philippines (70) tied for fourth at 10 under. — Reuters

Bottas wins in Turkey; title advantage to Verstappen

ISTANBUL — Valtteri Bottas ended his year-long drought with a dominant victory in Turkey on Sunday while unhappy Mercedes teammate Lewis Hamilton finished fifth and lost the Formula One championship lead to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.

Verstappen, 24, was runner-up and 14.584 seconds behind the Finn at a wet Istanbul Park to overturn a two-point deficit to Hamilton and go six points clear with six races remaining.

Red Bull teammate Sergio Pérez finished third with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc fourth and ahead of seven-times world champion Hamilton, who had started 11th due to an engine penalty.

“It’s been a while, but feels good. I think from my side, probably one of the best races I’ve had ever,” said Bottas, who started on pole position and took a bonus point for fastest lap.

“Apart from that one little slide, everything was under control.”

The victory, sealed by overtaking Leclerc 11 laps from the end after the Ferrari driver had taken the lead by staying out while others pitted, was the Finn’s first since Russia in September last year and 10th of his career.

Verstappen, who started on the front row, had a quiet race and said it had all been about tire management.

“I’m happy to be on the podium. I think it’s been close the whole year and I’m pretty sure in Austin it will be a good battle with Mercedes, so we just have to keep pushing, keep trying,” he said.

The US Grand Prix in Texas is the next race on Oct. 24.

HEATED HAMILTON
Hamilton might have been on the podium, but Mercedes called him in for a late stop from third place for a fresh set of intermediate tires with the track drying.

“Why did we give up that place? We shouldn’t have come in, man. Massive (tire) graining. I told you,” said the angry Briton in heated radio exchanges as he realized he had lost two places in the pits.

He noted afterwards that Alpine driver Esteban Ocon, who finished 10th, had made his one set of tires last the entire race.

Had he stayed out and kept third, Hamilton would be only a point behind Verstappen.

“We thought we could finish third without stopping or, if a dry line emerged, maybe going to a soft tire,” said Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff.

“Then we saw Leclerc dropping off and Lewis was dropping off and it was clear we wouldn’t make it to the end.”

Pirelli boss Mario Isola said the tires would have been absolutely on the limit had Hamilton tried to last the entire race on them.

Spaniard Carlos Sainz was voted driver of the day for going from the back of the grid, due to power unit penalties, to eighth for Ferrari.

AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly was sixth with Lando Norris seventh for McLaren and Lance Stroll ninth for Aston Martin.

ALONSO PENALTY
The start was clean, but Gasly dropped from fourth to fifth after contact with Alpine’s Fernando Alonso, who spun.

The Frenchman was handed a five-second time penalty, but Alonso also collected a similar sanction for a later clash with Haas’s Mick Schumacher.

Bottas was 1.6 seconds clear after three laps with Verstappen complaining soon after that he had problems with the gear shift.

Hamilton meanwhile worked his way through the field, 10th after the opening lap before passing AlphaTauri’s stubbornly defensive Japanese rookie Yuki Tsunoda for eighth place on lap eight.

He passed Stroll a lap later, with Norris and Gasly taken in quick succession.

A worrying moment came at the halfway mark when he was lapping Haas rookie Nikita Mazepin only for the Russian to move across the track, the two cars avoiding contact, but Hamilton losing time in his chase of Perez.

Hamilton and Perez went wheel-to-wheel through four corners as they fought for fourth, with the Mexican forced to run the wrong side of a bollard marking the pitlane entry as he held position and his team applauded.

With Ferrari finally recognizing Leclerc had run out of tires after Bottas passed him, the Monegasque pitted and was overtaken by Perez. — Reuters

Smart leads in 5G network rollout and experience, expects to deliver triple-digit growth in 5G users

PLDT wireless arm Smart Communications, Inc. (Smart) is expecting to deliver a triple-digit increase in 5G users in the next few years as it continues to lead in the 5G space by providing the fastest 5G speeds and the widest 5G network coverage in the Philippines.

This outlook is based on the rapid growth of Smart 5G users, which have now reached around 800,000 – a 200 percent increase from the number of Smart 5G users in December 2020. Smart has also delivered a three-fold increase in 5G data traffic in the first quarter and second quarter of 2021.

This contributed to Smart’s 39.5 million mobile data users as of end-June, the highest in the country, resulting in a double-digit increase in mobile data revenues in the first half of 2021 compared to the same period last year.

“When it comes to 5G, speed and coverage are the most important considerations. This is why since we pioneered the Philippines’ first 5G commercial service last year, our focus has been to lead in both 5G speeds and 5G coverage so as to empower Filipinos with world-class customer experience,” said Alfredo S. Panlilio, PLDT Inc. and Smart Communications President and CEO.

Putting PH on the 5G world map

Ookla, the global leader in internet testing and analysis, has recognized Smart as the fastest and most reliable 5G mobile network in the Philippines for Q1-Q2 2021, with median download and upload speeds that are twice faster than its closest rival.

Recently, Smart is also the only Philippine telco services provider included in Opensignal’s 5G Global Leaders for Video Experience, ranked alongside other 5G leaders such as South Korea’s SK Telecom, KT, and LG U+, Thailand’s AIS, and other operators from Croatia, Finland, Hong Kong, Germany, Netherlands, Taiwan, and United Kingdom.

Philippines’ widest 5G footprint

To date, Smart has also deployed over 4,400 5G sites in more than 4,000 locations – the widest 5G network coverage in the country.

Early this month, Smart also put the Philippines on the 5G world map as it fired up the first batch of its commercial 5G Standalone (SA) sites in Makati City, one of the first 5G SA networks in the world.

5G SA technology paves the way for new industrial applications as it provides super-fast response times and faster access to higher data rates that are critical in advancing Internet of Things solutions for businesses, health care, and smart cities.

Pioneering 5G services to drive adoption

“By having both the fastest and widest 5G network in the country today, Smart is in the best position to drive 5G adoption among Filipinos so that they can experience its game-changing benefits when it comes to productivity, business, and entertainment,” said Panlilio.

Aside from ramping up its 5G network rollout, Smart has also introduced pioneering 5G services to entice and migrate more data users to 5G. Early this month, Smart unveiled Signature Plans+, the first postpaid line-up in the country featuring Unlimited 5G. Smart also introduced the country’s first Unli 5G data offers for prepaid subscribers in April.

Smart is also gearing up to make available more 5G devices, such as the much-anticipated iPhone 13. Powered by Smart 5G, these 5G devices enable subscribers to experience next-level speeds for their online activities, from sending heavy work or school files in seconds, making crystal-clear video calls and virtual meetings, streaming ultra-HD movies seamlessly, to playing high-bandwidth mobile games without lag.

Smart’s 5G network leadership also enables it to bring more content to customers through relevant services, such as the new GigaPlay app, where Smart subscribers can access well-curated live and on-demand entertainment and sports content that Filipinos love, such as the NBA and PBA, as well as international and local concerts.

With Mobile Number Portability, which allows mobile users to switch to Smart without changing their number, Smart is also keen on attracting more mobile data users to experience its fastest and widest 5G network. Switchers can simply visit x.smart/switch or head to the nearest Smart Store.

In its Mobility Report released in June, Information and Communication Technology provider Ericsson estimates close to 580 million 5G subscriptions around the world by the end of 2021. It also sees 5G subscription uptake to be faster than that of 4G.

 


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Tax reform in progress

(2nd of 2 parts)

Why is our tax system inefficient? The simple answer is that we have a very narrow taxpayer and tax base. According to UN data, the current population of the Philippines as of Oct. 3, 2021 is 111,404,546, meanwhile there are 24,015,416 total registered individual taxpayers as of Dec. 31, 2020 per the 2020 Annual Report of the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) — so only 21.56% of the total population are taxpayers, of which 20 million are compensation-income earners or employees who are mostly minimum wage earners or tax-exempt under the TRAIN Law.

While there are developments and tax administrative reforms implemented by the BIR, the tax effort ratio pre-COVID-19 peaked at 14.49% which is the highest in 22 years as reported by the Department of Finance. According to the World Bank, tax revenues above 15% of a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) are a key ingredient for economic growth and, ultimately, poverty reduction.

The tax gap seems to be getting wider despite some tax reform measures enacted in the last five years. Before, tax evasion and smuggling appeared to be the major sources of tax leakages, but recent events have shown new forms and ways, like online transactions in the digital economy, investments in cryptocurrency, and an increasing number of offshore accounts in known tax haven countries, among others.

MANDATORY TIN
Mandating assignment of a Tax Identification Number (TIN) to every citizen seems to be the fast and easy solution to broaden the taxpayer base. This will allow the BIR to monitor who are minors or students, unemployed, gainfully employed, self-employed or professionals, incorporators or directors of corporations, and OFWs.

The lifting of the Bank Secrecy Law will make it easier for the tax administration to prosecute tax evaders, but as long as a TIN will be required in opening bank accounts, acquiring real properties or luxury goods including online transactions, any undeclared income or ill-gotten wealth can be traced.

This may require legislation, not just to make TIN mandatory but also as a pre-requisite before making any transactions. Thus, making TIN a depository account of all income received and expenses incurred by any individual or corporate taxpayers without having to check source documents.

MANDATORY REGISTRATION
Mandating registration of all sellers, influencers, or content creators before they can create an account or transact using any digital platforms will close the tax gap caused by the fast-growing digital economy.

This, however, is just the first step in on-boarding all new players or earners in this new economy. The government must legislate digital taxation which will fully define all entities, transactions, and platforms, recognizing their distinct and peculiar nature. Other than imposing taxes, the law must also incentivize those who will engage in online transactions to encourage registration and compliance.

Further, a budget appropriation is necessary to fund expertise and infrastructure to equip the tax administration in dealing with digital assets, cryptocurrency, and the like. Unfortunately, these are not included in the proposed Digital Economy Taxation Act of 2020 (HB 6765).

EASE OF PAYING TAXES
Congress has just approved House Bill 8942 or the Ease of Paying Taxes Bill which aims to further simplify tax compliance and modernize tax administration. Some of its salient features include removal of the P500 annual registration fee, removal of authority to print (ATP), requirement for receipts or invoices, and implementation of risk-based assessment among others.

While this complements the administrative reforms to improve ease of paying taxes initiated by the BIR and recommended by the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Task Force, it lacks budget appropriation to fund the digital transformation and full automation of our tax administration including audit and assessment.

Also, further streamlining of tax compliance must result in the removal of the manual Books of Accounts and other supporting documents which are already reported in the Summary List of Sales and Purchases (SLSP). Scanned copies of receipts or invoices must also be accepted in lieu of the actual documents.

In summary, ease of paying taxes means a more streamlined paperless tax compliance which can be accomplished online without unnecessary printed documents to support transactions and substantiate deductible expense claimed, if applicable.

MANDATORY AUDIT
The BIR has successfully implemented and made use of third-party information in enhancing its tax audit and investigation. With full automation, where all transactions can be captured in each TIN account, and implementation of electronic invoicing pursuant to the TRAIN Law, computerized risk-based audit may also be adopted to avoid compromises between the assigned examiner and taxpayer being audited.

Mandatory audit must also be conducted for the following:

a. Political candidates and their campaign donors after every election;

b. Government officials vis-à-vis their filed SALN; and,

c. Government contractors and suppliers.

This will help rebuild the trust of the taxpaying public to know that public funds do not inure to the benefit of traditional politicians while collecting tax dues from any undeclared income or ill-gotten wealth.

Although annual audit is indispensable in the mandate of the BIR to assess and collect taxes, a computerized risk-based audit will help prioritize taxpayers with low or non-compliance, instead of “randomly” auditing the same companies every year. Mandatory audit may be conducted every three years to make sure all taxpayers are compliant, unless there’s prima facie evidence of violation or non-compliance.

FLAT TAX FOR SMALL BUSINESSES
High compliance costs and high tax rates are two of the reasons why non-compliance is prevalent among small businesses. A 10% flat tax based on gross income will eliminate the unnecessary compliance costs and regular audit since deductible expenses will no longer be claimed.

This is owing to the fact that most companies are paying an effective tax rate of 5% despite the higher income and businesses taxes imposed. Unfortunately, the CREATE Law created undue tax advantage for non-individual or corporate taxpayers with the reduced 20% or 25% corporate income tax versus the highest personal income tax at 35% for “ultra rich” taxpayers or those earning above P8 million (See the Table).

Here’s a brief discussion of the proposal:

1. A fixed tax from P1,000 to P5,000 may be imposed on marginal income earners based on location, target market, and years in operations to encourage all sari-sari stores, online sellers, and those in the underground economy to register. Currently, marginal income earners are those earning not more than P100,000 in annual sales. This can be increased to P500,000 – P1,000,000 to support livelihood initiatives;

2. Provide tax exemption for startups for their first two years or P1 million in income, whichever comes first. Startups must promote innovation and agriculture but must not be affiliated to any existing corporations or conglomerates to avoid abuse and unnecessary tax benefit to those who can afford to pay taxes;

3. Standardize the definition of small business whether registered as a sole proprietor or corporation. Use sales as threshold instead of asset value, e.g., P100 million and impose a flat 10% tax in lieu of all taxes to encourage registration and compliance;

4. Expand further the withholding tax system to cover all income payments of large and top taxpayers, including digital transactions. Allow optional final tax for certain income, e.g., commission of brokers, agents and influencers, to ensure tax collection without the burden of compliance costs;

5. Implement a general tax amnesty with a provision on lifting the Bank Secrecy Law for tax fraud cases so the BIR can focus on high-risk, big-time tax evaders.

Our tax system remains inefficient due to a narrow taxpayer base, high compliance cost, and high tax rates. In order to achieve a simpler, fairer, and more efficient tax system, the comprehensive tax reform program must include mandating TIN assignment and use in all transactions, mandatory registration, ease of paying taxes, and a flat tax for small businesses.

This will hopefully broaden the taxpayer base, lower compliance costs, and further reduce tax rates to encourage voluntary compliance. The next administration must continue the comprehensive tax reform program and consider the above-mentioned proposals to uphold honesty and integrity in paying taxes while running after tax evaders including corrupt politicians.

This article reflects the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the official stand of the Management Association of the Philippines or MAP.

 

Raymond “Mon” A. Abrea is a member of the MAP Ease of Doing Business Committee, founding chair and senior tax advisor of the Asian Consulting Group, and co-chair of the Paying Taxes — EODB Task Force. He is a trustee of the Center for Strategic Reforms of the Philippines — the advocacy partner of the BIR, Department of Trade and Industry, and Anti-Red Tape Authority on ease of doing business and tax reform.

map@map.org.phmon@acg.ph

Political polls are misused

PEXELS-ELEMENT DIGITAL

The Social Weather Station and Pulse Asia have become potent political entities as their voter preference surveys have become significant factors in Philippine politics. They have unduly influenced the outcome of national elections. High ranking in the polls instead of substantive experience in public service or private enterprise has become an important, if not the top, consideration of political parties and alliances in their choice of nominees for national elective offices.

In August, Senator Panfilo Lacson proposed to Vice-President Leni Robredo that all opposition candidates for president should agree to withdraw from the race at a certain point and throw their support behind the one among them who leads in the surveys. He said that is the practical way of unifying the opposition forces against President Rodrigo Duterte’s anointed successor and thus prevent the extension of the Rodrigo Duterte brand of government beyond June 2022.

To Senator Lacson, the unifying factor of the opposition is the opposition candidate leading in the polls, not the sameness of what the candidates are opposed to and what they stand for and advocate.

But rankings in political polls are temporary. They reflect the sentiments of the voters at the time the survey was conducted. The question pollsters ask the voter is: “If elections were held today, who would you vote for?” not “Who would you vote for on Election Day?” A lot of things can happen between the time the survey is conducted and Election Day — May 9 in 2022. Not only can a lot of things happen, those with stakes in the elections will make things happen, either to boost their candidate’s political stock or to erode his opponent’s standing.

For almost a year, Vice-President Jejomar Binay ranked No.1 among those known to have plans to run for president in the 2016 elections. When certain Liberal Party leaders hinted that they were considering Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB) Chair Grace Poe as their presidential candidate, Poe surged ahead of Binay in the survey rankings. But not long after, the Binay camp raised the citizenship and residency issues against Poe. Poe fell behind Binay in the next polls.

Then came the Senate investigation into the alleged overpricing of the Makati City Hall Parking Building II. Binay’s survey ratings dipped, with Poe emerging as the leading candidate. But soon after, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte joined the presidential derby. Promising to bring change in the governance of the country by making fearless decisions and fast action like he did as mayor of Davao City, in contrast to the laid-back style of then incumbent President Noynoy Aquino, Duterte became the frontrunner in the polls.

It has been like that in all post martial law election periods. In 1992, Miriam Santiago was the leader in the polls for much of the campaign period. In the end, Fidel Ramos emerged the winner. In 2010, Manny Villar topped the polls from January to March. But the results of the surveys done in April showed Noynoy Aquino as the preferred candidate.

That is why Lacson’s proposal, contrary to his assertion, is not practical. The survey ratings change. They are influenced to a large extent by the events preceding the conduct of the surveys. It would very hard to get the opposition forces to agree on when the opposition candidates should withdraw in favor of the one leading in the surveys.

The endorsements of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) are clear examples of the misuse of the poll results. The religious sect’s endorsements do not influence the winnability of candidates for public office as is the belief of traditional politicians, it is the winnability of the candidates that influence the sect’s endorsements.

Last week, former senator JV Ejercito confirmed this practice of the INC. In the Oct. 5 episode of the TV talk show Headstart, he said he was not endorsed by the sect in 2019 because he was not among the senatorial candidates in the top 12 in the polls. He is running again for senator in next year’s elections. He said he has been told by the INC that he will be endorsed because in the last surveys before the 2019 elections, he was among the 12 in the winning circle. He was not endorsed back then because by the time the survey results were released, the sect had already finalized its senatorial slate.

The INC endorses only those candidates that the polls show to be likely winners. That has been shown to be true in past electoral exercises. In 1998, it endorsed Joseph Estrada for president months before the elections. This in spite of the fact that Estrada’s private life is the antithesis to the teachings of the religious sect. Adulterous relationships, gambling of any kind, and excessive drinking are prohibited by the sect. Members found guilty of transgression of those rules are either suspended or expelled.

Estrada is known to have sired children with several women. He frequented the casinos. His drinking sprees with his close friends were said to be nocturnal occurrences. But the sect endorsed Estrada just the same because the Social Weather Stations (Pulse Asia was not yet in existence then) consistently projected Estrada as the overwhelming preference of the voters.

In 2004, it delayed its endorsement of Gloria Arroyo until the last week of the campaign period when she emerged as being ahead of Fernando Poe, Jr., the rumored preference of the sect. In 2010, it switched from Senator Manuel Villar to Senator Noynoy Aquino five days before Election Day, when Aquino had dislodged Villar from the top rank of the polls as Election Day neared.

After a long wait for its endorsement, it announced close to Election Day of 2019 which 12 senatorial candidates it was endorsing. All were among those who occupied the top 12 spots in the surveys conducted by Pulse Asia that year, as corroborated by JV Ejercito.

That is how the INC chooses the candidate it will ask its faithful to vote for. It chooses a candidate not on the basis of any moral or political standard, but on who the polls show to be the most likely winner. It has given the less discerning traditional politicians the impression that INC’s bloc vote is the deciding factor in the success of a candidate’s quest for an elective post.

The sect’s endorsement as the deciding factor in a candidate’s success is a myth. The candidates it endorsed in recent elections would have won just the same with or without its endorsement as they are really the people’s choice as the surveys indicated. Koko Pimentel was re-elected senator even without the vaunted INC endorsement. Jinggoy Estrada was among the 12 senatorial candidates it endorsed but he lost.

That is why I say political surveys have become dysfunctional. In pre-martial law days, national conventions of party members decided who the party’s candidates for president and vice-president would be. Only in 1959 was political polling introduced in the country when Gallup Poll’s affiliate in the Philippines, Robot Statistics, conducted a survey on the probable winners in the mayoralty race in Manila.

Robot Statistics released the results of the survey to the public after the voting booths had been closed. That is how it should be — to prevent the creation of a bandwagon effect. The results showed Arsenio Lacson of the Nacionalista Party and Antonio Villegas of the Liberal Party as the winning mayoralty and vice-mayoralty candidates, respectively. The actual vote counts jibed with the pollster’s projections, leading to the acceptance of political polling here.

It is folly to expect the survey companies to stop their practice of releasing to the public the results of their election surveys. Their election forecasts promote their wares and their organizations, thus generating revenue for them.

Surveys should be used to determine campaign strategies, not to determine who to put up as candidate. What we have is that candidates are chosen on the basis of their ranking in the polls. That is why we have so many celebrities in elective posts for which they are not qualified.

 

Oscar P. Lagman, Jr. is a retired corporate executive, business consultant, and management professor. He has been a politicized citizen since his college days in the late 1950s.

Navigating the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiation process: Insight into ASEAN’s options

TERRITORIAL CLAIMS in the South China Sea — WIKIPEDIA/ VOICE OF AMERICA

ASEAN and China have failed to make progress in finalizing the Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea (SCS). Two decades of negotiations since the Declaration on the CoC was signed in 2002, have not yielded an agreement to effect a dispute settlement mechanism aligned with the United Nations (UN) Charter and a well-defined geographic scope to which the 2016 UN arbitral ruling will apply.

Partial gains from forging a multilateral code of conduct in the SCS in the context of power asymmetry and weak ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) centrality can be bridged when we shift our sight less on the final output of the negotiations and towards cultivating ways in which ASEAN member states operationalize and reinforce parts of the whole. This is to say that as optimism in concluding a regional code of conduct in 2021 wanes, ASEAN leaders should compartmentalize the objectives of idealism and pragmatism in their approach.

The first is to take the pragmatic route, which requires littoral and other states to invest in measures that strengthen various existing formats of cooperation in the already evolving regional maritime security community. The second approach is to couple practical maritime cooperation with diplomacy in the arbitral ruling. Both of these approaches enable the creation of spaces for centralizing power within the ASEAN as a precondition for dealing with hegemonic powers, for integrating collective and individual interests, and for diversifying and pluralizing strategic partnerships.

PRACTICAL COOPERATION IN MARITIME DOMAIN AWARENESS
Strengthening practical cooperation should begin within the ASEAN member states themselves. Practical cooperation based on continuous and institutionalized, not one-time, action reinforces ASEAN centrality that is key to dealing with China. Member states taking concrete steps to realize the provision on states’ “duty to cooperate” and to “enter into arrangements of a practical nature” found in the Single Draft Negotiating Text (2019) of the proposed CoC concretely align the latter to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In addition, functional cooperation creates a platform for establishing a range of rules and institutions that tests the ability of states to enforce and/or be bound by them.

Among the critical junctures in the maritime domain is for ASEAN governments with existing mini-lateral agreements to regularize practices and activities in maritime domain awareness (MDA), which, according to the International Maritime Organization, impacts on the safety, environment, security, and economy of the maritime realms. MDA is an “enabler” of maritime security — for instance, reducing insecurity against piracy requires MDA based on intelligence and technology- aided tracking of pirate vessels.

The Trilateral Maritime Patrol arrangement that the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia launched in 2016 to arrest Abu Sayyaf’s kidnappings for ransom in the Sulu Sulawesi waters is a relatively weak maritime security arrangement that must overcome multiple coordination problems in intelligence gathering and coordinated patrols. Enhancing enabling structures to launch operationalized and coordinated maritime patrols can generate spaces on “joint” structures, such as joint commands or joint patrols, that effectively bridge the domestic and intergovernmental governance gap. Operationalization further equips states to participate more effectively in other multilateral MDA-based arrangements such as the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) agreement-based Information Sharing Center and the Information Fusion Center, which are big data intelligence sharing, fusion and training centers respectively in the fields of anti-piracy and transnational (in) security.

The prevention and management of incidents at sea, which is one of the proposed basic undertakings of states in the latest Single Draft Negotiating Text (2019), is also a convergence point of maritime security community building among ASEAN states. This can be harnessed towards building the groundwork for rules-based conflict management in the South China Sea where geopolitical conflicts and fishing rights competition intersect.

Practices in preventive diplomacy which are aimed at managing unplanned encounters, disasters, and crises at sea also include search and rescue and the establishment of hotlines between agencies. In 2014 at the Western Pacific Naval Symposium, 21 states, including ASEAN claimant states, the US, and China,  adopted a norm that underpins specific communication and maneuvering protocols in the high seas based on the Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) — thereby widening the scope of the emergent security community in crisis management that ASEAN-China and ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) defined in terms of resolutions, statements, guidelines, declarations, and training exercises.

DIPLOMACY ANCHORED ON THE ARBITRAL RULING
The other approach, based on international law, will require ASEAN claimant states in particular to publicly invoke the arbitral ruling. Indonesia has been specific in invoking the 2016 arbitral ruling in a recent submission to the United Nations, to reply to China’s response to Malaysia’s application to the UN to define the limits of its extended continental shelf in 2019. So has the Philippines belatedly invoked the arbitral ruling in its note verbale to the UN. Vietnam has instead made reference to the UNCLOS. Diplomacy anchored in the arbitral ruling will help define the geographical scope of the CoC as much as it internationalizes the SCS dispute through moral suasion from within and from external states.

Evidently there are limits to both approaches. Practical cooperation recursively requires a united ASEAN political front, strong leadership at home, and resources. Compared to functional cooperation, diplomacy anchored on the arbitral ruling is politically sensitive and divisive to ASEAN centrality in terms of various dichotomies based on claimant versus non-claimant states, pro- and anti-Chinese, aligned (pro-US) or non-aligned foreign policies, among others. Both routes must be underpinned by a pluralistic approach to strategic partnerships with extra-regional states.

 

Alma Maria O. Salvador, PhD, is a full-time member of the Political Science Department of the Ateneo de Manila University.

Lockdown, declining births, growth contraction, and vax discrimination

The Philippines’ lockdown is turning 19 months long this week. The “two weeks only” lockdown imposed on March 16, 2020 became two months, and is now approaching two years. One more proof that once government restrictions are created, they will hardly go away.

RISING DEATHS, DECLINING BIRTHS
The mandatory social distancing, restriction on mobility, and prohibition of big parties have greatly affected the people’s health and social events like weddings. I checked the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) deaths and births data and the numbers are somewhat surprising.

One, there was no excess mortality in 2020 over 2019. There were, in fact, 6,314 less deaths in 2020 compared to 2019.

Two, excess mortality showed big time in the first half of 2021. There were more deaths in January to June 2021 than the same months in 2020 and 2019 — 72,218 more than 2020 and 52,489 more than 2019. March to May 2021 saw 61,000 to 69,000 deaths per month.

Three, there was a big drop in the number of births in 2020. The average number of births from 2017 to 2019 was 1.68 million per year. In 2020 this declined to only 1.52 million, a decrease of nearly 165,000 births.

Four, there was an even bigger decline in births in January-March 2021 over same months in 2020 and 2019. From 4,300+ births per day in 2019 to less than 4,000 per day in 2020 and less than 3,000 per day in 2021 (see Table 1).

This is not yet a “depopulation” situation but it can lead there over the long term if the trend continues.

ECONOMIC DAMAGE
Reviewing again the economic destruction caused by the strict indefinite lockdown in the Philippines, here are some numbers:

One, the GDP (gross domestic product) contraction in 2020 of -9.6% led to a GDP level of only P17.53 trillion (at constant 2018 prices). This is lower than 2019’s P19.38 trillion and 2018’s P18.26 trillion, and nearly touched 2017’s P17.18 trillion. Nearly three years of economic achievements and output were erased.

Two, the prevailing GDP growth projections for 2021 is 4.3% to 4.5%. At 4.4%, the country’s GDP level in 2021 would then be P18.30 trillion, equivalent to the level in 2018, again three years of economic achievements have evaporated.

Three, rising outstanding public debt. From P8.22 trillion in 2019 to P10.25 trillion in 2020 and P11.64 trillion as of August 2021. It is projected to reach P12.3 trillion by end-2021. Government debt has been rising by P2 trillion per year since last year and will be a heavy burden for taxpayers in the coming years.

More government spending does not lead to more growth.

Until now there are still many economists and observers who argue that the solution to growth contraction is more government spending and borrowing. Far out. The cases of Italy, Spain, France, and the UK show that as they expanded borrowings in 2020, their GDP contraction worsened. Same trend follows for the Philippines and Thailand.

In contrast, some countries that limited their borrowings had either lower contractions or experienced growth in 2020. Examples are the US, China, Vietnam, and Indonesia (see Table 2).

The government-imposed strict lockdown is the culprit, opening the economy with a minimum of health protocols is the solution.

VACCINE DISCRIMINATION
Implicit mandatory vaccination via discrimination against those who do not have a vax card is now happening in some malls, enclosed restaurants and shops in Metro Manila and other big cities. This is a slippery slope, from an implicit vax mandate working slowly towards an explicit vax mandate via legislation someday.

There are two reasons why this move is wrong, anti-democratic, and anti-freedom.

One, this quote from a retired nurse in the US:

“Why do the ‘Protected’ need to be protected from the ‘Unprotected’ by forcing the Unprotected to use the protection that didn’t protect the Protected in the first place?”

Or this can be restated as: If the Protected really believe in their protection, they should not be scared and insecure of the Unprotected and coerce the Unprotected to take their protection that didn’t give them confidence and security in the first place.

Two, a government that imposes the discrimination by penalizing restaurants and shops that do not follow orders, does not discriminate in collecting taxes from the people. There is double talk by government, national or local, in this case. Similar to arguing that healthcare is a basic human right then saying that the unvaccinated should be denied healthcare.

FAREWELL, CHITO GASCON
About three months ago, I and some members of the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC PH) met face to face with then Chairman of the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) Chito Gascon, and other Commissioners and officials of the CHR. While he supported mass vaccination, he recognized that it is a human right, an individual right, to choose not to be vaccinated for health, philosophical, and other reasons.

Chito was a friend since the 1980s in UP Diliman. He led a virtuous political life, from being a Chairman of the UP Student Council, to becoming a member of the Constitutional Commission of 1986, until his appointment as CHR Chairman in 2015.

Peaceful journey, Chito. You lived a good, productive life.

 

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers.

minimalgovernment@gmail.com

China has won AI battle with US, Pentagon’s ex-software chief says

REUTERS

LONDON — China has won the artificial intelligence (AI) battle with the United States and is heading towards global dominance because of its technological advances, the Pentagon’s former software chief told the Financial Times.

China, the world’s second largest economy, is likely to dominate many of the key emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and genetics within a decade or so, according to Western intelligence assessments.

Nicolas Chaillan, the Pentagon’s first chief software officer who resigned in protest against the slow pace of technological transformation in the US military, said the failure to respond was putting the United States at risk.

“We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion,” he told the newspaper. “Whether it takes a war or not is kind of anecdotal.”

China was set to dominate the future of the world, controlling everything from media narratives to geopolitics, he said.

Mr. Chaillan blamed sluggish innovation, the reluctance of US companies such as Google to work with the state on AI and extensive ethical debates over the technology.

Google was not immediately available for comment outside business hours.

Chinese companies, Mr. Chaillan said, were obliged to work with their government and were making “massive investment” in AI without regard to ethics.

He said US cyber defenses in some government departments were at “kindergarten level.”

Mr. Chaillan announced his resignation at the beginning of September, saying military officials were repeatedly put in charge of cyber initiatives for which they lacked experience.

A spokesperson for the Department of the Air Force said Frank Kendall, secretary of the US Air Force, had discussed with Mr. Chaillan his recommendations for the department’s future software development following his resignation and thanked him for his contributions, the FT said. — Reuters

AstraZeneca antibody drug effective at treating mild coronavirus in trial

REUTERS

ASTRAZENECA PLC’s antibody cocktail was effective at preventing people with mild or moderate COVID-19 infection from worsening in a study.

The cocktail halved the risk of developing severe illness or death compared with a placebo in a primary analysis of 822 patients who weren’t hospitalized, Astra said in a statement Monday. The trial took place in countries including the UK, Brazil, the US and Germany.

The results are another boon for the product after it was also found to be highly effective at preventing symptomatic COVID in high-risk people. The outcomes are a relief for Astra after an initial trial testing whether the cocktail could prevent symptomatic disease in people explicitly exposed to the virus failed in June. The company said last week it had applied for emergency-use authorization in the US.

Antibody treatments are a key tool in the fight against COVID-19 as they can be used to supplement vaccines for people who haven’t mounted a strong response to the shots or to protect those who couldn’t be immunized. Those who may be eligible for such cocktails include cancer patients or those with weakened immune systems.

“With continued cases of serious COVID-19 infections across the globe, there is a significant need for new therapies like AZD7442 that can be used to protect vulnerable populations,” said Hugh Montgomery, the principal investigator on the trial and professor of intensive care medicine at University College London.

In a separate analysis of patients who received treatment within five days of getting symptoms, the cocktail reduced the risk of the disease worsening by 67%. The majority of patients — 90% — were from populations at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19, including those with co-morbidities. — Bloomberg

Stock market’s CO2 footprint is bigger than previously estimated, report says

REUTERS
A man stands in front of an electric board showing Nikkei and other countries stock index in Tokyo, Japan, Jan. 4, 2021. — REUTERS/KIM KYUNG-HOON

PUBLICLY traded companies are responsible for roughly twice as much carbon dioxide (CO2) as previously estimated, underscoring the need for shareholder activism in the fight against global warming, according to a study by Generation Investment Management LLP.

The firm, co-founded by former Vice President Al Gore, estimates that listed companies are responsible for 40% of all climate-warming emissions. It reached that conclusion by looking beyond a corporation’s own carbon footprint, known as Scope 1, and including customer emissions, known as Scope 3.   

The research, which was published Monday, “highlights the importance of capital allocation choices and meaningful portfolio engagement if we are to be successful in delivering a net-zero world by 2050,” said Miguel Nogales, co-chief investment officer at Generation Investment Management. “If the world needs to get to net zero by 2050, the ambition for public companies overall should be 2040 at the latest — and they must focus on de-carbonization in the near term.”

Corporations and their investors are under mounting pressure to reduce their carbon footprint as scientists warn the planet is overheating at a far more dangerous pace than previously feared. The urgent need for more ambitious climate policies will be addressed by world leaders at the upcoming COP26 summit in Glasgow, Scotland, where the goal will be to agree on measurable targets to prevent a catastrophic rise in temperatures.

Generation Investment Management’s response to the climate crisis has been to blacklist all fossil-fuel stocks, which it’s done for over a decade. Co-founder and former Goldman Sachs Asset Management executive David Blood said in a recent interview that global capital markets only have about five years left to deliver meaningful action in the fight against climate change, before it’s too late.

Mr. Nogales said the firm’s analysis “suggests that the collective importance of over 10,000 listed companies globally has been underplayed.” He also said that done properly, climate-friendly investor activism can “unleash untold potential for innovation and collaboration.”

Claire Elsdon, joint global director of capital markets at CDP, a nonprofit dedicated to getting companies to improve their climate-related disclosures, said the Generation Investment Management report shows that “investor engagement is critical” in steering companies toward net-zero emissions.

She said that now, “more than ever,” companies need to provide transparent data. That means following standards set by the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, and adhering to science-based targets, she said.

“The tide is turning against companies not taking note of investor demands,” Ms. Elsdon said. — Bloomberg