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Pharmally’s P3.4-B unsupported purchases could be basis for tax evasion charge, says expert 

CONTROVERSIAL Pharmally Pharmaceutical Corp. declared P3.4 billion worth of unsupported purchases, according to a tax expert providing assistance to the Senate blue ribbon committee’s probe on alleged procurement anomalies, which may be grounds for tax evasion. 

Raymond A. Abrea, a certified public accountant and Bureau of Internal Revenue consultant, said during Thursday’s hearing that Pharmally declared P7.2 billion worth of purchases in its audited statement last year, but the total amount is not fully supported by documents such as official receipts.   

Mr. Abrea explained that an overstatement of expenses is usually done “to lessen the tax they need to pay.” 

After looking into Pharmally’s financial statements, their summary list of purchases is only P3.2 billion, while their summary list of importation is P600 million, he added. 

“We don’t know where it came from or who supplied the P3.4 billion,” he said in Filipino. — Alyssa Nicole O. Tan 

Mt. Apo town opens all ecotourism, cultural sites 

JRPANER

SANTA CRUZ town in Davao del Sur, which hosts one of the entry points to Mt. Apo, has opened all its tourism sites as the municipality is now under less restrictive alert level 2.   

“All our sites are open since the modified general community quarantine and now that Davao del Sur is at alert level 2,” Santa Cruz tourism officer Julius R. Paner, told Businessworld in a mixed English and Visayan. 

Aside from day-treks or climbs to Mt. Apo, the country’s highest peak at 2,954 meters, the town offers a number of ecotourism and cultural activities in partnership with local communities and the indigenous group Bagobo-Tagabawa.   

Among the newest destinations prepared during the lockdowns are the Bamboo Peak and Tomari Falls.   

Mr. Paner said the Bamboo Peak is a 4.6-kilometer trail that passes through farmlands and tropical rainforest within the ancestral land of the Bagobo-Tagabawa. The trek culminates at a summit 1,106 meters above sea level.   

The Tomari Falls is one of the town’s more attractive waterfalls, with a natural cold pool ideal for bathing. 

Mr. Paner said each visitor will have to pay a registration fee of P50, and hiring of a local guide is mandatory at a rate of P500 per group with a maximum of five persons.   

Other tourist attractions in Sta. Cruz are the Bagobo Cultural Village, Passig Islet, Water Tubing in Sibulan River, Mt. Dinor in Sinoron, Pilan River in Sinoron, Tacub Laya Falls in Sinoron, Mt. Loay, and Saliducon Cave.   

There are also some beach destinations in the coastal town.   

“We remain an ecotourism attraction, showcasing outdoor sites and experiences, which is an appropriate tourism product in the new normal,” Mr. Paner said.  

The town, located about 76 kilometers south of Davao City, does not require a negative coronavirus test result nor proof of vaccination from visitors. — Maya M. Padillo 

Duterte signs law increasing penalties for perjury  

PRESIDENT RODRIGO R. Duterte has signed into law a measure increasing the penalties for perjury.  

Republic Act. No. 11594 increases the minimum jail time for persons who commit false testimony and perjury under oath to at least six years from the current six months. 

The law, signed last Friday, sets a medium period of eight years and one day to 10 years.  

Under the law, public workers and officials found guilty of perjury may be penalized with up to 12 years of imprisonment and a fine not more than P1 million. They may also face absolute disqualification from any government position.    

Perjury is committed by a person who “knowingly” makes untruthful statements under oath or “make an affidavit, upon any material matter before a competent person authorized to administer an oath in cases in which the law so requires.” — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza 

Senatorial candidate calls for lowering of interbank, online transaction fees 

PHILSTAR

SENATORIAL candidate Neri J. Colmenares urged banks and other payment channels to reduce fees for interbank machine and online transactions to help ease the burden of consumers amid the pandemic.  

“The dramatic increase in e-commerce during the pandemic have increased the profits from online charges even as the sheer increase in the magnitude of transactions tend to make the cost per transaction lower,” Mr. Colmenares, Bayan Muna chair and a former congressional representative of the progressive party-list said.   

He said on Thursday that while consumers had to resort more to shopping online due to the pandemic, they have had to pay fees from P15 to as high as P50 per transaction.  

He also cited Philippine Payment and Settlement System data from the central bank for the second quarter of 2021, which shows a 40.98% and 55.38% increase for PESONet and InstaPay transactions, respectively, compared to the same period last year.  

He also called on Congress to approve House Bill 4019 or the ATM Fee Regulation Act, which would impose a standard rate of up to P5 for interbank transactions, including those using online payment channels such as GCash and Paymaya.    

“The same principle should be applied to fees charged by money remittance outfits especially at this time when every peso counts for our people,” Mr. Colmenares said.  

The measure is pending at the House Committee on Banks and Financial Intermediaries. — Russell Louis C. Ku 

DENR campaigns for passage of bill on conservation of tamaraws  

GREG YANN

THE DEPARTMENT of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said it hopes that Congress will prioritize the passage of the Tamaraw Conservation Bill to conserve the critically endangered Mindoro dwarf buffalos.  

“We hope that the House of Representatives and the Senate will keep this bill in mind in choosing priorities to ensure that one of our country’s biodiversity treasures are conserved and protected,” DENR Secretary Roy A. Cimatu said in a news release on Thursday.   

The Tamaraw Conservation Bill or House Bill 8299 authored by Occidental Mindoro Rep. Josephine Ramirez-Sato seeks to create a Tamaraw Conservation Coordinating Council and Technical Advisory Group, Tamaraw Conservation Program Office, and the Tamaraw Conservation and Research Center to take charge of research activities towards the conservation of the dwarf buffalos.   

Mr. Cimatu added that while waiting for the bill to be passed into law, he “thoroughly supports the proposed crafting of a Department Administrative Order for the Tamaraw Conservation Program.”   

The dwarf buffalo, endemic in Mindoro Island, was listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as critically endangered in the year 2000 with only 154 of them left then.   

In 2012, the DENR-Tamaraw Conservation Project, Far Eastern University, and the World Wide Fund for Nature Philippines launched the Western Mindoro Integrated Conservation Program in an effort to increase the population of the dwarf buffalos.  

October is declared National Tamaraw Month. — Bianca Angelica D. Añago  

Fighting poverty: Learning from the ground

ZBYNEK BURIVAL-UNSPLASH

“There are people in the world so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in the form of bread.” — Mahatma Gandhi

Ten years ago, Indonesia struggled with its largest social assistance program. Its Raskin, Rice for the Poor Program, was allocated $1.5 billion a year but was almost always whittled down by bureaucracy and corruption, frustrating the goal of distributing 15 kilos of rice a month to the poorest of the poor.

Indonesia eschewed tougher controls but decided to hook up its researchers with the staff of J-PAL or the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab, a global research center working to reduce poverty by science-based policy through what is now called RCT, randomized controlled trials. J-PAL is based in Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with global networks. J-PAL was founded in 2003 by 2019 Nobel laureates in economics, the husband-and-wife team of Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, both of MIT, and Sendhi Mullainathan, formerly of Harvard.

The collaboration focused on capacity building by raising awareness about the program and its benefits to the recipients themselves. Based on RCT results, these initiatives proved very effective so that Indonesia succeeded in issuing 15 million cards, bundled up with two other cash-transfer programs. There was an immediate escalation to $4 billion support to the very poor.

What made the approach work was surprisingly simple.

The steps employed bridged any potential disconnect between various theories of poverty and the actual situation on the ground. This endeavor requires rigor because evidence should be produced and accessible to Government. Contrary to the reservation by another Nobel laureate, Angus Deaton, that “demonstrating that a treatment works in one situation is exceedingly weak evidence that it will work in the same way elsewhere,” J-PAL economists actually recognize that they also need to get the results validated in other contexts. Most important, “implementation needs to be monitored to bring new reality checks to the policy findings.”

Equally important, J-PAL would not presume that its well-trained lab scientists are superior to the recipients.

There is wisdom in Banerjee and Duflo’s 2011 book, Poor Economics, something many of us would refuse to accept: “The poor are no less rational than anyone else — quite the contrary. Precisely because they have so little, we often find them putting much careful thought into their choices: they have to be sophisticated economists just to survive.”

But the poor continue to suffer. As the authors explained various facets of poverty, it is difficult to understand “why the poor need to borrow in order to save, why they miss out on free life-saving immunizations but pay for drugs that they do not need, why they start many businesses but do not grow any of them, and many other puzzling facts about living with less than 99 cents per day.”

For Banerjee, the way forward “is to abandon the habit of reducing the poor to cartoon characters and take the time to really understand their lives, in all their complexity and richness.” It is refreshing to read that hope is crucial and knowledge is indispensable in fighting poverty on the ground.

To Yanis Varoufakis, former finance minister of Greece and professor of economics at the University of Athens, Banerjee and Duflo’s work may be considered another attempt by economists to defend their profession. Since England’s Queen Elizabeth threw the disarming question of why nobody saw the Global Financial Crisis coming, and how Nobel prize winning economists provided the theoretical underpinnings of structured derivatives that led to “weapons of mass financial destruction,” economists have been bashed for many years. Some opportunistic politicians have “weaponized discontent with mainstream politics and to oppress it into the service of a xenophobic ideology that denies facts and serves the interests of a nativist, global oligarchy.”

The couple’s work is exceptional in the sense that they clarified many issues like migration, trade, inequality, and climate change that bad economics has distorted in public debates, and demolished many of its false assumptions. Varoufakis commended the couple’s humility to accept that economics cannot tell us everything and pride to show economics’ share in our limited understanding. As the couple stressed, “there are no iron laws of economics keeping us from building a more humane world.”

One good example of trying to build a more humane world is what the International Care Ministries (ICM) is doing in the Philippines. Led by its chairman and chief executive officer, David Sutherland, and its team of volunteers and staff, ICM has been on the ground since 1992. True, there is nothing new in seeking the support of those who are financially able to help those with the least ability to chart a brighter future. This is no different from taxing earners to fund, one, infrastructure for the whole population, and, two, economic and social services especially for the poor. This is equitable and should lead to less evil.

What is different is ICM’s intent to help break the vicious cycle of poverty in the Philippines where “roughly a quarter of 109 million (people) live below the poverty line.” It is reported that the ultra-poor families subsist on P25 a day, with no job skills set, no productive assets, and reside in impossibly isolated rural areas.

For instance, ICM implements “Transform,” a four-month weekly capacity-building program that has covered since 2009 nearly 10,000 communities with some 256,000 households and 1.4 million family members. Without probably employing the full RCT, ICM networks with people in the areas and appropriately equips the Ministries with key information about the actual situation on the ground. Impact studies are also done to guide future strategies.

ICM hand-holds parents in many areas of ordinary life. Because words are cheap, ICM also invests in people’s access to livelihood to make them self-reliant and resilient. With doctors and church pastors from Negros to Bohol, from Panay to Palawan, and from Cebu to Mindanao, ICM has also been able to deliver support to better nutrition, safe water, medical care, and even safe pregnancies.

Sending their qualified recipients to school is also being pursued by engaging with some 2,000 public schools in isolated areas with accreditation from the Department of Education. ICM has now over 1,000 local women who have been trained to bring healthcare to over 1,000 local communities, monitoring the health needs of 130,000 residents and completed 500,000 household medical screenings. In short, there is duplication of capabilities, echoing is alive, and virtual discipleship on how to cope with poverty is on high gear. This is how sustainability is built.

The health pandemic of 2020 and 2021 made ICM’s work more challenging. Before the health crisis, many families survived on only P14 a day, 29% had no electricity, while 43% reported illness in the family. Sutherland cited 72% of their recipients saying they were earning much less than before. Those who are more affluent must have heard his dire report and appeal that during their Oct. 28 fundraising campaign — ICM managed to exceed last year’s solicited amount, and in the process raised the bar for next year’s fight against extreme poverty.

ICM’s approach is therefore broadly consistent with Poor Economics’ argument that by paying attention to evidence, one can understand not only the real causes of poverty but also how to end it. This should also help donors assess how to avoid wasting their resources on poverty-reducing initiatives that are mostly based on generalized assumptions about the poor.

Those who believe in social impact, that is, changes in society must be big, have been disappointed all these years especially in the fight against poverty.

Banerjee and Duflo subscribe to its linearity, that small, but sustained adaptations and tweaks drive impact and its returns.

Incrementalism is its other name.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Rush to ‘normalcy’

PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS
WITH THE SHIFT to Alert Level 3 in Metro Manila, parkgoers took the time for a Sunday stroll and bike ride at the Marikina River park on Oct. 17 in Marikina City. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

Enough vehicles are again traversing them to tie up traffic on such major National Capital Region (NCR) thoroughfares as EDSA. All-night drinking sessions are back, and so are visits to this or that tourist destination. Some buses and jeepneys are ferrying passengers at full capacity, and enough commuters are flocking daily to the MRT and LRT stations to get into almost the same kilometric lines that jammed them in pre-pandemic times.

The malls are admitting thousands eager to eat out, do some shopping, or enjoy their air-conditioning and the Christmas carols their music systems are grinding out. The usual “ber”-month hordes in Manila’s Divisoria market are back to the earnest pursuit of bargains in toys, clothes, household and other goods for the country’s month-long gift-giving holidays. And thousands trooped to the so-called Dolomite Beach of Manila Bay to feel the fake “sand” between their toes or to just breathe in the dolomite dust-laden air of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources’ “white beach” folly.

From Alert Level 4, the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases placed the NCR and outlying provinces in Alert Level 3 in Oct. 16 — and even intimated that Alert Level 2 is possible in the region and other areas by the end of November. Government spokespersons were even promising everyone “a better Christmas” as quarantine restrictions are further relaxed by the last weeks of December.

As business and service establishments including movie houses were allowed to reopen and their occupancy rates expanded, and as more workers and other wage earners returned to and from work via public transport, one can’t blame them for thinking that Alert Level 3 had ushered in a return to “normalcy.” More and more people are either throwing caution to the winds on the assumption that the Philippines’ worst public health crisis in a century has passed, or are forced, or happy to ignore, such health protocols as social distancing in crowded public places.

The IATF decision was based on the supposed decline in the number of new COVID-19 infections and the consequent drop in hospital occupancy. But the spectacle of the thousands massed cheek-by-jowl at the Dolomite Folly was enough to alarm some senators, who urged the shutdown of the beach so as to prevent a repeat of Oct. 24’s potentially super-spreader event.

The senators were not alone in their reservations over the early easing of quarantine protocols. Medical doctors and other professionals also raised serious doubts about its timeliness and the reliability of the numbers on which it was based.

Some of the former said in mid-October that hospital emergency rooms and COVID-19 wards were still crammed with patients, although the numbers did drop by the end of the month. But the shortage of nurses is still a major problem because many had either resigned and are in different lines of work, or have left the country for hospitals in foreign countries because of the low wages and practically non-existent benefits they get in the Philippines.

The Duterte regime has raised its policemen’s salaries but not those of nurses. When their associations asked him to increase nurses’ salaries, President Rodrigo Duterte even added insult to injury by dismissing that plea and is on record as blithely telling nurses to “Magpulis na lang kayo” (join the police force instead). Echoing his indifference, one senadora noted for her billions and disdain for the poor even chastised nurses for supposedly putting money above their profession’s care-giving responsibilities to the public.

Among the consequences of the shortage of nurses and other health workers, said one doctor, are that those who are still on the job are being overworked and even more COVID-vulnerable, and that the hospitals’ have to turn away non-COVID patients. The pandemic is still serious enough to so adversely affect the entire health system that it is probably claiming more lives than are reflected in government statistics.

To the same claim that the number of new COVID cases is dropping, the mathematician head of the University of the Philippines Pandemic Response Team agreed that based on data from the Department of Health, both the number of new cases as well as hospital admission and occupancy rates are indeed declining. But he told the news media that it is nevertheless possible that new cases are either being underreported, or that some have not been detected early enough because of the differences in the accuracy of the testing methods hospitals and laboratories use.

He emphasized the need for raising testing rates, as did medical doctors who also observed that the government’s determination to revive the economy has to be accompanied by an increase in the vaccination rate. As it is, however, it is still below 500,000 a day in this country of over 100 million people, and while enough vaccine supplies are finally available, they are not getting fast enough to areas outside the NCR, hence the continuing surge in the number of new cases in those places.

Why then the rush to declare the country in a state close to “normalcy” despite these lingering issues, the most worrisome of which is the apparent disconnect between what doctors are experiencing on the ground and the Duterte regime’s confident narrative that the contagion has been contained?

The answer should be clear enough even to the single-digit IQued. It is to combat the perception, validated by most of the results of the surveys, that the regime response to the pandemic has been so mismanaged that it is preventing the reopening of the economy. The latter’s consequences have been catastrophic to small and medium enterprises, and hence to the four million-plus workers who have lost their means of livelihood. Bloomberg Communications’ assessment that the regime has been egregiously incapable of containing the spread of the disease and reviving the economy only confirms what is already evident to more informed Filipinos.

It is to reverse that view, which could have a bearing on the chances of regime candidates in 2022, that it is doing its all to make it appear that it has succeeded in so addressing the contagion that there are only a few weeks before everything, including the economy, goes back to normal.

There is another election-related reason. Without economic recovery, government revenues via taxes will continue to decline to the disadvantage of the incumbent candidates and their clones and surrogates who, in “normal” times, are able to freely access such funds during electoral campaigns.

Whether the numbers do reflect the real state of the pandemic or not, the crucial question is whether the mass of the electorate —the 87% that decide who will govern this country — can or will see through the subterfuges devised by the ruling clique of dynasts and oligarchs to deceive the public.

But the results of the surveys on voter preferences are far from encouraging. They in effect reveal the Filipino millions’ scant awareness of both history and present circumstances, and their consequent bias in favor of despotic rule, incompetence, mendacity, and corruption. And this is before the usual suspects have released the bulk of the billions at their disposal for media exposure and manipulation, and for vote-buying and voter intimidation.

Will June 30, 2022 usher in a new time of hope? Or will the same horrors spawned by the black lagoon of Philippine politics still be in power then to complete this country’s ruin because the inability to remember the past has made its repetition as inevitable as death?

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Child protection and mental health

ORIGINAL PHOTO BY JORDAN WHITT-UNSPLASH

The 13th annual Ako Para Sa Bata (APSB) Conference had been transformed into a series of webinars. In 2020, the pandemic lockdown made the organizers design a series of weekly webinars from September to November. It was an innovative presentation that allowed thousands of registrants to join. Presented by Child Protection Network and UNICEF, APSB offers workshops and modules with experts in the fields of social work, psychology, law, medicine, and culture.

This year the APSB Conference webinars are currently being held until Nov. 25.

Here are brief quotes from the leaders of the conference.

“We are very happy this year that we have 10,600 registrants. That’s really breaking barriers. It seems that we are bridging the gaps in terms of making this Ako Para Sa Bata more accessible to everyone in the country. We hope that this year’s program will really help you in your work and in your advocacies,” said Dr. Bernadette J. Madrid, Executive Director of the Child Protection Network Foundation and conference president.

“With UNICEF’S support we are able to continue organizing the annual APSB Conference, that provides continuing education for individuals and professionals in the frontline of child protection work. Providing continuing knowledge to professionals and caring and advocating for children is essential, especially during this difficult time when it is even more important that services and advocacy remain unhampered,” said lawyer Katrina Legarda, Director of the National Network of Women and Children Protection Units of the Child Protection Network. “The youth will continue to be a part of the webinars as reactors to certain topics. The webinar of Nov. 25 will be organized by, for and with the youth,” she noted.

Dr. Renee P. Neri, Scientific Committee Co-Chair, pointed out that “APSB is about Breaking Barriers, Bridging Gaps and Moving Forward one year into this challenging pandemic — how we frontliners, child protection specialists and advocates, can help each other and the children to be more resilient and for them to have a better future.”

“Given the challenges presented by our current situation, a shift on our mindset particularly in child protection is necessary. We should ensure that all Filipino children are protected, regardless of gender, social class, geographical area, given capabilities and available resources.” Dr. Riza C. Lorenzana Scientific Co-Chair remarked.

Among the critical topics is Child Abuse, considered a public health crisis. This module consisted of a talk with a slide presentation by Dr. Norieta Calma-Balderama, FPPA, FPSCAP.

The World Health Organization (WHO) revealed that “children exposed to an abusive environment are likely to acquire chronic mental health problem such as bipolar disorder anxiety, borderline personality disorder, depression and grief.”

Dr. Calma-Balderama’s report showed a strong correlation between child abuse and poor performance in school, drug abuse and early sexual intercourse.

The mental health situation before the pandemic showed that 10 to 20% of children and adolescents were affected by mental health disorders and disability. The incidence of prevalence of suicide attempts increased during the pandemic. The statistics are staggering.

Lockdown and isolation have long term effects. There is intensified poverty, disrupted lives and the exacerbated cyber trafficking. There is the strong link between poverty and exploitation. The lockdowns have made children more vulnerable to violence. There has been an alarming increase of 260% in cyber-sex offense, online sexual exploitation and child abuse.

UNICEF reported that 1.8 billion children in 104 countries (including the Philippines) are at risk. This is because of the disruption of violence prevention, mental health services, inadequate response services, and rehabilitation.

There should be preventive, curative rehabilitative care.

The World Health Organization’s Mental Health Action Plan has two parts: 1.) The importance of mental health promotion during the early stages; and, 2.) ASEAN countries should provide mental health education for students to develop coping skills, and teacher training knowledge to support children.

The facts:

There are limited resources to provide medical and psychosocial care to abused women and children in 106 Women and Children Protection Units in 55 provinces.

The country needs more mental health professionals to handle the mental health crisis.

Some of the different modes of treatment are: play therapy, art therapy, pharmacotherapy, Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT), and family therapy.

Dr. Calma-Balderama emphasized the importance of Resilience and Enrichment. Resilience happens when there is an attachment with a stable adult caregiver. This relationship decreases the risk for depressive disorders and reduces the negative impact of abuse and neglect on brain structure. Enrichment in early adolescence lessens the negative effects. Summer camps, sports and arts, exercise, and music training promote positive brain changes via neuroplasticity.

She stressed the basic needs: 1.) child-parent clinical interventions as trauma-informed care and involving parents are essential for (care) continuity and recovery; and, 2.) tele hubs and online consultation (aside from face-to-face consultation) by child psychiatrists, psychologists and social workers.

Multidisciplinary efforts, research, and interventions can help improve the mental health of abused children.

At the workshop “Music therapy during the pandemic,” music therapists Irvin Sayoc Kalugdan from the Fairfax County Public Schools, Virginia, USA, and Danielle Elise Zamar Alcantara, R.N. and professor at Siliman University, Dumaguete offered the benefits of therapy for those affected by crisis or trauma.

They played music videos and explained the benefits of music. It has a significant effect on an individual’s relaxation, respiration rate, pain reduction, and “behaviorally reported anxiety levels.”

The coordinated program of therapy provides positive mood changes, enhanced feelings of control, confidence, and empowerment, and positive physiological changes such as lower blood pressure, reduced heart rate. The exercises include storytelling, song writing, and “the soundtrack of your life” — songs that represent a favorite memory, a victory, a time when you helped make a difference, your best day ever, and composition and lyric analysis.

In “Toning or Grounding Experiential,” participants were encouraged to hum the familiar tune “Lean on Me” by Bill Withers. Here are some of the lyrics:

Verse I

Sometimes in our lives

We all have pain

We all have sorrow

But if we are wise

We know that there’s always tomorrow.

Chorus:

Lean on me

When you’re not strong

And I’ll be your friend

I’ll help you carry on…

For it won’t be long

Till I’m gonna need somebody to lean on.

Bridge:

You just call on me brother

When you need a hand

I might just have a problem

That you’ll understand

We all need somebody to lean on….

Congratulations to the organizers and panelist APSB 2021 and thank you to CPN and UNICEF for bringing hope to all children and women who are adversely affected by this prolonged pandemic.

Ako Para Sa Bata webinars are being held every Thursday, 10-11:30 a.m. until Nov. 25. (For more information, contact the Child Protection Network Foundation, Inc. at akoparasabataconfrence@gmail.com and www.childprotectionnetwork.org). n

 

Maria Victoria Rufino is an artist, writer and businesswoman. She is president and executive producer of Maverick Productions.

mavrufino@gmail.com

Climate change will kill national sovereignty as we know it

REUTERS

AS WE collectively hurtle into the era of climate change, international relations as we’ve known them for almost four centuries will change beyond recognition. This shift is probably inevitable, and possibly even necessary. But it will also cause new conflicts, and therefore war and suffering.

Since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, diplomats have — in peacetime and war alike — for the most part subscribed to the principle of national sovereignty. This is the idea, enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, that foreign countries have no right “to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state.”

The concept was born, along with the entire system of modern states, in the physical and psychological rubble of the Thirty Years War. Starting in 1618, the European powers intervened in one another’s territories almost willy-nilly. Round after round of war left about one in three central Europeans dead. It was in that continental graveyard that statesmen (they were all men) stipulated that it was best if every state henceforth minded only its own business.

Nobody at the Peace of Westphalia was deluded enough to think that this realist notion would end war as such. After all, by acknowledging sovereignty, the system accepted that countries pursue their national interests, which tend to clash. But at least the new consensus offered the chance of preventing another indiscriminate bloodletting.

Even then, the principle of sovereignty was never absolute or uncontroversial. For a long time, the best idealist counterargument was humanitarian — that countries have not just the right but the duty to intervene in other states if, say, those are committing atrocities such as genocide.

Now, however, there’s an even more powerful case against sovereignty, put forth by thinkers such as Stewart Patrick at the Council on Foreign Relations. It’s that in a world where all countries collectively face the planetary emergency of global warming, sovereignty is simply no longer a tenable concept.

That insight has probably also dawned on many delegates to COP26, the United Nations climate summit now underway in Glasgow. What’s at stake in those negotiations is not any country’s “national” interest as such, except insofar as it’s part of the collective interest of our species in preserving the global commons: the atmosphere and biosphere. And although aviation regulators might disagree, the borders around our territorial jurisdictions just don’t extend up into the air.

A carbon dioxide molecule emitted in China, the US, or India will waft who-knows-where and accelerate climate change everywhere. It will flood cities in Germany, burn forests in Australia, starve people in Africa, and submerge islands in the Pacific. All the world’s people, therefore, have a legitimate interest in the greenhouse gases emitted in any given jurisdiction.

An early and tragicomic demonstration of this shift in international relations was the dust-up in 2019 between Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron. Bolsonaro, a populist firebrand, was at that time allowing fires to burn wide swathes of the Amazon rainforest. It happens to be the world’s primary “lung” or “carbon sink,” pulling greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and storing them in trees. Except now the Amazon was belching carbon back into the air.

Speaking for many, the French president accused his Brazilian counterpart of abetting “ecocide.” Sounds like the new genocide, doesn’t it? Bolsonaro shot back that Macron was a neocolonialist and followed up with a sexist jibe aimed at Macron’s wife.

The underlying issue was sovereignty: Is a rainforest located in Brazil the business of Brazil or of the world? Would, in a hypothetical future scenario, an alliance led by France be within its rights to declare war on Brazil to prevent ecocide, and thereby humanity’s suicide? (Fortunately, 100 countries including Brazil this week pledged instead to cooperate in phasing out deforestation).

This opens a new line of thinking about world affairs. Policymakers are already steeped in analyses of the new types of conflict that global warming will cause within and between countries. Those include wars over access to freshwater, the disappearance of arable land or mass migrations.

But the creeping obsolescence of Westphalian sovereignty as the operating system of international relations would cause even more upheaval. And this looks inevitable. Some powers or alliances will in the future contemplate military interventions in other states to end what they will define as ecocide. Others may even go to war if they believe rival countries are taking unilateral measures against climate change that threaten their own interests.

America’s National Intelligence Council, for example, has thought about what would happen if some country were to spray huge quantities of aerosols into the stratosphere. Such geoengineering might reflect sunlight and cool the planet, as ash does after a big volcanic eruption. But it could also change weather patterns and rob other countries of their livelihood. Who in this scenario would be sovereign over what?

The time to think about the demise of sovereignty is now. Maybe we’ll need an ecological equivalent to what the World Trade Organization is to commerce: A new international body that makes the conundrum explicit and attempts to maintain order. Even then, the world is likely to become more unstable and dangerous, not only ecologically but also geopolitically. We all dread environmental Armageddon. But we don’t want another Thirty Years War either. — Bloomberg

Pentagon increases its estimate of Chinese nuclear warheads

CHINESE AND US flags flutter near The Bund in Shanghai, China July 30, 2019. — REUTERS

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon on Wednesday sharply increased its estimate of China’s projected nuclear weapons arsenal over the coming years, saying Beijing could have 700 warheads by 2027 and possibly 1,000 by 2030.

While the numbers would still be significantly smaller than the current US nuclear stockpile, they represent a significant change in the US projection from just last year, when the Pentagon warned the Chinese arsenal would top 400 by the end of the decade.

Washington has repeatedly called on China to join it and Russia in a new arms control treaty.

In its wide-ranging annual report to Congress on China’s military, the Pentagon reiterated concerns about increasing pressure on self-ruled Taiwan, an island China sees as a breakaway province, and China’s chemical and biological programs and technological advancements.

But the report put particular emphasis on China’s growing nuclear arsenal. “Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces,” the report said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

It added that China had started building at least three intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields.

“Whether China follows through with these estimates from the United States will depend in great part on the policies and actions of the United States,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said.

“The potential for China to increase its arsenal to these levels underscores the urgent necessity of pragmatic bilateral or multilateral talks to reduce nuclear risks,” Mr. Kimball added.

China says its arsenal is dwarfed by those of the United States and Russia, and that it is ready for dialogue, but only if Washington reduces its nuclear stockpile to China’s level.

The United States has a stockpile of 3,750 nuclear warheads, of which 1,389 were deployed as of Sept. 1.

TAIWAN RISKS
Beijing has vowed to bring fiercely democratic Taiwan, which it considers its “sacred territory.” Under its rule and has not renounced the use of force.

The Pentagon report renewed concerns about China’s increasingly muscular military and its development of options to take Taiwan, one of several scenarios the US military cautioned Beijing could pursue.

But a senior US defense official, who briefed reporters, declined to speculate about whether that scenario was likely or say if they saw a near or even a medium-term risk of armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei.

On the long list of potential Taiwan scenarios outlined in the briefing, the US official cited the possibility that China could work on options for everything from a joint blockade campaign against Taiwan to a full-scale amphibious invasion.

It could carry out air and missile strikes or cyber attacks. China could also potentially seize offshore islands. The official declined to say which one of these contingencies was most likely or if any were likely at all.

But the Pentagon has voiced concern about China’s pursuit of capabilities that would enable such actions.

“They have a range of different things that they are wanting to be prepared to do,” the official said.

Separately, the top US general said on Wednesday that China was unlikely to try to militarily seize Taiwan in the next couple of years.

“Based on my analysis of China, I don’t think that it is likely in the near future — being defined as, you know, six, 12, maybe 24 months, that kind of window,” General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said when asked if China was preparing to make a move on Taiwan in the near future.

The Pentagon report added a section on China’s biological weapons and potential dual use, but did not look at the origins of COVID-19.

There has been increased focus on China’s chemical and biological capabilities after COVID-19 was first identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.

US intelligence agencies said last week that they may never be able to identify the origins of the pandemic, as they released a detailed version of their review of whether the coronavirus came from animal-to-human transmission or leaked from a lab.

China has consistently denied allegations that the virus was leaked from a specialist laboratory in Wuhan. — Reuters

‘You are not alone’: EU Parliament makes 1st official visit to Taiwan

REUTERS

TAIPEI — The European Parliament’s first official delegation to Taiwan said on Thursday the diplomatically isolated island is not alone and called for bolder actions to strengthen EU-Taiwan ties as Taipei faces rising pressure from Beijing.

Taiwan, which does not have formal diplomatic ties with any European nations except tiny Vatican City, is keen to deepen relations with members of the European Union (EU).

The visit comes at a time when China has ramped up military pressure, including repeated missions by Chinese warplanes near democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own and has not ruled out taking by force.

“We came here with a very simple, very clear message: You are not alone. Europe is standing with you,” Raphael Glucksmann, a French member of the European Parliament, told Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a meeting broadcast live on Facebook.

“Our visit should be considered as an important first step,” said Mr. Glucksmann, who is leading the delegation. “But next we need a very concrete agenda of high-level meetings and high-level concrete steps together to build a much stronger EU-Taiwan partnership.”

The three-day visit, organized by a committee of the European Parliament on foreign interference in democratic processes, will include exchanges with Taiwanese officials on threats such as disinformation and cyber attacks.

Ms. Tsai has warned of increasing Chinese efforts to gain influence in Taiwan, asking security agencies to counter infiltration efforts.

“We hope to establish a democratic alliance against disinformation,” Ms. Tsai told the delegation in the Presidential Office.

“We believe Taiwan and the EU can certainly continue strengthening our partnership in all domains.”

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu made a rare trip to Europe last month that angered Beijing, which warned the host countries against undermining relations with China.

Fearing retaliation from Beijing, most countries are unwilling to host senior Taiwanese ministers or send high-level officials to the island.

Last month, the European Parliament adopted a non-binding resolution to deepen ties with Taiwan, with steps such as looking into an investment agreement. — Reuters

WHO approves Indian-made COVID vaccine for emergency use

BHARATBIOTECH.COM

THE WORLD Health Organization (WHO) granted emergency authorization to a COVID-19 vaccine co-developed by India’s medical-research agency and local manufacturer Bharat Biotech International Ltd., ending a months-long wait that added to controversy around the homegrown shot.

The WHO approved the vaccine’s use in people aged 18 and older on a two-dose schedule with four weeks between shots, according to a statement on Wednesday. Covaxin joins a range of WHO emergency-cleared shots from AstraZeneca Plc, China’s Sinopharm Group Co. and Sinovac Biotech Ltd., Pfizer, Inc., and BioNTech SE , Johnson & Johnson and Moderna, Inc.

The agency’s nod on the eve of Diwali, India’s largest festival, is a welcome endorsement for Covaxin’s manufacturer Bharat Biotech International Ltd., as well as a political boon for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose government had heavily promoted the vaccine.

The Hyderabad-based company has been beset with problems since it partnered with the state-funded Indian Council of Medical Research last year to develop the inoculation. Covaxin has been criticized from the onset. The vaccine won emergency approval from the nation’s drug regulator in January before clearing final-stage clinical tests, fueling hesitancy around the shot and the early stages of India’s immunization drive.

More than 100 million doses have since been administered across India. Bharat Biotech said in July that the vaccine was 77.8% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID, but that Phase 3 data was yet to be peer reviewed. In the course of its analysis, the WHO repeatedly asked the company for further information, delaying its addition to the body’s pre-qualified list.

Bharat Biotech’s joint Managing Director Suchitra Ella said in a statement the WHO nod was a “validation” of the company’s work, while Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, said that “it facilitates travel for many Indian citizens and contributes to vaccine equity.”

The listing is a prerequisite for exports via the WHO-backed Covax vaccine-sharing facility, which was set up to provide Covid shots to the world’s poorest countries. The WHO’s approval may accelerate the resumption of vaccine shipments from India, which halted exports in April to prioritize its own citizens amid a lethal second coronavirus wave.

India will likely restart vaccine exports to Covax by early November, Adar Poonawalla, head of the Serum Institute of India Ltd., told Bloomberg News last month. Serum, the world’s largest vaccine maker, has pumped out hundreds of millions of doses of AstraZeneca’s inoculation and the company was meant to be the main provider of vaccines to Covax before the export halt. — Bloomberg