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US Sin City Las Vegas betting reputation as sporting party capital on Super Bowl

PHOENIX — Las Vegas will put its reputation as the world’s party capital on the line next year when the United States’s biggest sporting party comes to Sin City with everyone predicting a Super Bowl supernova.

While Las Vegas is no stranger to hosting big events, the bar has been set super high and National Football League commissioner Roger Goodell is not betting against it being a huge success. “I think I would be making a mistake underestimating anything that happens in Vegas and how big it can be,” said Mr. Goodell during his state of the league address.

Even before the Kansas City Chiefs’ 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday’s Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, plans were already taking shape for next year on the Strip.

Sam Joffray, CEO of the Super Bowl Las Vegas Host Committee told Reuters high expectations come with the territory when you are talking about Las Vegas and because of that they are well aware that they will need to up their game.

The Super Bowl will be held at the $1.9 billion Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders, in 2024.

From the selection of the halftime act to more mundane items such as getting people smoothly in and out of the stadium, Las Vegas will be expected to deliver a glitzy Super Bowl that is bigger and better than any before.

“People have high expectations for Vegas on any given weekend,” said Mr. Joffray. “Vegas has no shortage of experience hosting big events but the Super Bowl — we need to up our game.

“Las Vegas is going to be spectacular.” — Reuters

Qatari investors preparing bid for Manchester United

LONDON — Qatari investors are preparing to make a bid to buy Premier League club Manchester United “in the coming days,” Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the deal.

The report added that the consortium will submit an initial bid for the club by the end of the week, and that officials from the Qatar Investment Authority are helping with preparations for the bid.

Reuters has contacted Manchester United for comment.

Jim Ratcliffe’s company INEOS formally entered the bidding process to buy United last month after the club’s US owners, the Glazer family, said in November they had begun looking at options including new investment or a potential sale.

Earlier this month, the Daily Mail newspaper reported that Qatari investors are planning to make a huge bid to buy Premier League club Manchester United.

The Daily Mail report stated the interested investors are separate from Qatar Sports Investments (QSI), which owns Paris St Germain, and that the money will come from an “individual fund” rather than a sovereign wealth fund.

Manchester United, managed by Erik ten Hag, are third in the league on 46 points after 23 games, two points behind Manchester City and five adrift of leaders Arsenal. — Reuters

‘Major’ moves

Midseason transactions have been tantalizing for many a contender in the National Basketball Association over the years. Those keen on improving their lot are sufficiently enjoined by less-than-stellar showings in the immediate past to push for change — sometimes any change. And then there are those with moist eyes focused on the Larry O-Brien Trophy who believe they’re simply a deal away from making history. It’s why the league has invariably played host to a flurry of activity heading into the trade deadline, catering to both contenders and rebuilders.

That said, not all major moves have worked out well. In fact, longtime habitues of the sport would have to go back to the Rockets’ acquisition of Clyde Drexler from the Blazers in 1995 to find one that led to a championship. The operative word is, of course, “major” — which is to say it involved an incumbent All-Star. The distinction sets aside a handful of other asset swaps subsequently tied to titles at the end of the same season, from where active participants likely get their motivation.

In any case, no eyebrows were raised when the Nets got to field numerous offers for erstwhile foundations Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Theirs is a tale of woe; in three-plus years, they fell prey to a series of unfortunate events that had them exchanging their place alongside the league elite with medium-term mediocrity. In letting go of their marquee names, they actually did well to get a leg up on their reboot. But, bottom line, they remain in search of respect and respectability.

Take the Suns and the Mavericks, whose postseason fates remain to be seen. Even with established star-studded rosters, nothing in the playoffs is etched in stone. More so when there is a question on the length of the adjustment required for things to go smoothly on the court and off. For Durant, there’s the indeterminate amount of time he will remain sidelined due to a medial collateral ligament injury. For Irving, there’s the constant possibility of his mercurial predilections being brought to the fore. The hardware’s in sight, though, so they’re all in — for better or for worse.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and human resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

Biden to name Fed’s Lael Brainard as top economic adviser – source

OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE PHOTO BY ADAM SCHULTZ

US President Joe Biden is expected to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to the White House’s top economic policy position as early as Tuesday, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.

Brainard would replace White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Brian Deese, who has announced his resignation.

In addition, Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the source said.

Rouse has announced plans to depart.

The White House declined to comment.

Bloomberg News first reported the changes.

Markets’ response was muted in Asia hours, with bonds and the dollar steady along with US futures, and analysts said the implications of the appointment weren’t very clear.

“We don’t know what to infer from this,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

“Under normal circumstances, I would have thought that her advice to Biden would be very pro stimulus,” he said.

“(But) the inflation backdrop will probably dampen if not check some of her underlying tendencies…I suspect that a lot of her input may be on the supply side.”

Biden is making over his top economic team as the Fed continues to hike interest rates but the U.S. labor market remains tight, raising the prospect of an unusual recession without significant job losses.

The next NEC director and CEA chair will help shape the Democratic Biden administration’s economic policy, from executive orders to congressional spending bills and raising the debt limit, in the face of a more hostile US House of Representatives, now controlled by Republicans.

Brainard is a Harvard-educated Democrat who has been at the Fed for nearly a decade and served as Treasury’s top international affairs expert under President Barack Obama. She was an economic adviser to then-President Bill Clinton. — Reuters

Storm-battered New Zealand declares national emergency

Building inspectors assess how homes and buildings have fared in recent floods. — Auckland Emergency Management/Facebook

WELLINGTON — New Zealand declared a national state of emergency for only the third time in its history on Tuesday as Cyclone Gabrielle caused widespread flooding, landslides and huge ocean swells, forcing evacuations and stranding people on roof tops.

Canceled flights stranded thousands of people, while hundreds of thousands remained without power.

“The severity and the breadth of the damage that we are seeing has not been experienced in a generation,” Prime Minister Chris Hipkins told a news conference on Tuesday.

Australia and Britain had pledged support, he added.

At 6 p.m. (0500 GMT) Gabrielle had moved southeast of Auckland, near the east coast of the country’s North Island, and was expected to continue moving southeast, roughly parallel to the coast. Weather warnings remained in place for much of the east coast of the North Island and upper South Island.

About 225,000 people were left without electricity, while dozens of supermarkets closed, with Mr. Hipkins urging New Zealanders not to panic-buy supplies.

Architect Lars von Minden, 50, lives in Muriwai, a beach town on the coast west of Auckland.

“I’ve seldom seen anything like it,” he told Reuters by phone. “There are three or four areas where there are just these massive slips, some of them 300 meters (1,000 feet) across, that have come down, taking out houses and roads and everything.”

Kieran McAnulty, minister of emergency management, said that while New Zealand was now through the worst of the storm, more rain and high winds were expected.

The country was suffering from extensive flooding, landslides and damage to roads and infrastructure, he added.

Transmission companies around the country reported damage to substations and power networks.

EVACUATIONS
Authorities have evacuated beach settlements and are urging still more people to leave homes as rivers continue to swell and huge surf inundates beachfront properties.

Roads are closed, mobile phone services down and some towns cut off. Residents in hard-hit areas are being asked to conserve water and food because of fears of shortages. Air New Zealand restarted some flights in and out of Auckland, though many routes remained disrupted.

Helicopter and boat crews were rescuing people trapped by rapidly rising flood water in Hawke’s Bay, southeast of Auckland.

Mr. Hipkins said it was too early to say how many people had been displaced or injured. No deaths have been confirmed.

Media reported one person was missing after a house had slid down a hill in Hawke’s Bay, while the fire and emergency service said a volunteer firefighter was still in a house that had been swept downhill in a landslide.

Local media published photographs and video of people sitting on top of buildings surrounded by flood water, of houses swept to the bottom of hills by landslides and of roads under water.

New Zealand declared national emergencies after an earthquake in 2011 and when the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020. — Reuters

US military says it recovers key sensors from downed Chinese spy balloon

STOCK PHOTO | Image from Pixabay

WASHINGTON — The US military said on Monday it had recovered critical electronics from the suspected Chinese spy balloon downed by a US fighter jet off South Carolina’s coast on Feb. 4, including key sensors presumably used for intelligence gathering.

“Crews have been able to recover significant debris from the site, including all of the priority sensor and electronics pieces identified as well as large sections of the structure,” the US military’s Northern Command said in a statement.

The Chinese balloon, which Beijing denies was a government spy vessel, spent a week flying over the United States and Canada before President Joseph R. Biden ordered it shot down. The episode strained ties between Washington and Beijing, leading America’s top diplomat to postpone a trip to China.

It also led to the US military scouring the skies for other objects that were not being captured by radar, leading to an unprecedented three shootdowns in the three days between Friday and Sunday.

The US military and the Biden administration have acknowledged that much about the most recent, unmanned objects remains unknown, including how they stay aloft, who built them and whether they may have been collecting intelligence.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sought to calm Americans on Monday about the risks posed by the unidentified objects.

“I want to reassure Americans that these objects do not present a military threat to anyone on the ground,” Mr. Austin said, speaking to reporters as he landed in Brussels for a NATO gathering.

“They do, however, present a risk to civil aviation and potentially an intelligence collection threat.”

The US military has said that targeting the latest objects has been more difficult than shooting down the Chinese spy balloon, given the smaller size and the objects’ lack of a traditional radar signature.

In an example of the difficulty, the latest shootdown of an unidentified object on Sunday by an F-16 fighter jet took two sidewinder missiles — after one of them failed to down the target, a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Mr. Austin said the US military has not yet recovered any debris from the three most recent objects shot down, one of which fell off the coast of Alaska in ice and snow. Another shootdown occurred over the Yukon territory in Canada.

US officials have declined to connect the incidents.

But Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that the four aerial objects shot down in recent days were somehow connected, without elaborating.

“Obviously there is some sort of pattern in there, the fact we are seeing this in a significant degree over the past week is a cause for interest and close attention,” Mr. Trudeau told reporters in a news conference in Whitehorse, Yukon’s capital. — Reuters

Argentina announces price controls to bring down cost of popular beef cuts

Dalma Food AB/CC BY 3.0/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

ARGENTINA’s economy ministry announced on Monday a price control program to bring down the cost of popular beef cuts amid ongoing high inflation.

During a press conference, an economy ministry official said some popular cuts of meat would see prices drop around 30%.

In a separate statement, the ministry said the program has been applied to seven different types of meat and will be in effect until March 31, when a smaller price cut of 3.2% will come into play until June 30.

“The average price at which supermarkets were selling the (meat) cuts have been lowered by an average of 35%,” it added.

The announcement comes as the South American nation faces one of the highest inflation rates worldwide, which is expected to rise annually near 100% and to top 6% in January alone.

Drought in the country has also forced beef prices up, the ministry noted. — Reuters

Can we trust corporate climate pledges or is it greenwashing?

PIXABAY

LONDON — Corporate climate pledges are mushrooming as global companies seek to reassure customers and investors about their green credentials by promising net zero emissions and carbon-neutral products.

But multinational companies branding themselves as climate leaders mostly have “inadequate and ambiguous” plans to fulfill their promises, according to a report published on Monday by the NewClimate Institute, a Berlin-based think-tank.

In an analysis of 24 big firms, from retailers to carmakers and airlines, the Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor found their plans only amounted to emissions cuts of just over one-third by the time they have pledged to become net zero.

So how can companies turn their green pledges into significant reductions in planet-heating emissions, and what will it take to protect consumers from greenwashing?

Are companies on track for net zero?

While only analyzing a snapshot of global companies, the report said the firms’ climate strategies “do not add up” to their net zero pledges, and 15 of the 24 were judged to be of low or very low integrity.

It paid particular attention to firms’ plans up to 2030, seen as crucial to meeting the Paris climate goal of keeping global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and ideally to 1.5C (2.7F).

This decade is “make or break” for climate action, said lead author Thomas Day, yet the short- and medium-term targets of these “self-proclaimed climate leaders … (are) woefully inadequate.”

To keep global warming within 1.5C, the report said these companies should cut emissions by at least 43% by 2030, yet their current plans point to cuts of 15% on average.

Maria Mendiluce, chief executive of the We Mean Business Coalition, a nonprofit that works with businesses on climate action, said many firms are committed to fundamental change.

“Companies are trying their best to understand their footprint and to tackle it,” Mendiluce said, calling for increased scrutiny of climate “laggards” – businesses that are doing nothing.

What makes a climate pledge credible?

The leading voluntary environmental disclosure platform CDP said fewer than one in 200 companies that submit climate change-related data have credible climate transition plans, according to the nonprofit’s latest review published last week.

CDP judges a credible plan by 21 key indicators which demonstrate a shift in business model to align with climate targets, such as oversight at the board level and financial planning.

The NewClimate Institute report said pledges often include disclaimers to exclude certain activities – such as “scope 3” emissions that are generated by consumers and suppliers, and which can account for the vast majority of their impact.

Another issue that undermines credibility is the ambiguity of corporations’ plans and the lack of concrete measures to decarbonize, said Silke Mooldijk, a co-author at the institute.

“For instance, the three fashion retailers in our report all claim to source more sustainable materials, but they do not explain what ‘more’ means or what ‘sustainable’ means,” she told an online news conference.

Should carbon offsets count?

Many companies’ net zero pledges use “offsetting”, where they look to invest in projects such as tree planting instead of cuts to emissions they cause directly.

But the report said these schemes are “highly contentious” as they are “neither additional nor likely to result in permanent emissions removals”, such as forestry projects which are scarce and not guaranteed to last.

“If everyone were to follow their example, we would need two to four Planet Earths,” said Mooldijk.

Voluntary standards like the Science Based Targets initiative’s (SBTi) “Net-Zero Standard” require companies to decarbonize 90%-95% of their emissions before offsetting “residual” emissions which may not be possible to cut.

But in response, Mooldijk said offsetting is now “moving behind the guise of alternative terminologies” such as “neutralization” or “insetting” – which usually refers to offsetting within a company’s value chain.

Can people trust green labels?

Many companies in the analysis are using certifications through voluntary standards bodies such as SBTi to demonstrate progress, Day said, using them as “badges to defend insufficient action and even to deflect criticism.”

He said these green certification schemes need to become stricter, such as ejecting companies that are failing to take sufficient action.

“They really need to be careful they’re not creating a platform for greenwashing,” he said.

Mendiluce, who sits on the executive board of SBTi, said the initiative does not give businesses a “free ride” in its validations and is “tough” with them.

She said it will eventually help support governments to create their own standards, such as how businesses helped to create the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Protocol – a widely used accounting method for measuring emissions.

In its recommendations, researchers behind the NewClimate Institute report said governments should do more to protect consumers against misleading advertisements.

Gilles Dufrasne, a policy officer at the nonprofit Carbon Market Watch, which helped to prepare the report, said this means stronger rules, better enforcement of existing regulations, and clear guidelines for companies to adopt and communicate climate ambitions.

“It’s really unrealistic to expect consumers to understand these claims, even though many of these communications are directly targeted at consumers,” he said. — Reuters

Brazil central bank backs electronic receipts to crack down on illegal gold

NATANAELGINTING-FREEPIK

BRASILIA — Brazil’s central bank and other government agencies are studying the adoption of electronic tax receipts for buying and selling gold in order to track whether it was illegally mined, the bank said in documents published on Monday.

The move is aimed at cracking down on illegal gold mining that has led to the invasions of protected lands in the Amazon rainforest and indigenous reservations where wildcat miners have brought malaria, armed violence and malnutrition in a humanitarian tragedy.

The central bank said the goal was to implement “a new inspection system that allows the traceability of the gold extracted, as well as the adoption of electronic invoices,” according to a notice sent to the country’s Supreme Court.

The bank said it could only intervene once the gold enters the financial system as an asset.

Half of the 100 tonnes of gold produced each year by Brazil, or about 52 tonnes, is thought to be illegally mined and laundered by financial brokerages that are regulated by the central bank, which does not currently know if the gold it buys is legal or illegal, mining industry lobby group Ibram said.

The mining lobby has been calling for the adoption of electronic invoices to end the illegal gold trade, Ibram President Raul Jungmann said.

Brazil’s new leftist government last week launched an enforcement operation to remove some 20,000 wildcat miners from the Yanomami reservation on the border with Venezuela after declaring a medical emergency due to deaths from malnutrition.

The miners devastated much of the reservation that is the size of Portugal, polluting rivers with mercury used to extract the gold, terrorizing the Yanomami and reducing the game they hunt.

Jungmann, whose lobby represents multinational and large domestic mining firms operating in Brazil, asked the government to take steps to break a network that launders illegal gold through the financial system for sale to jewelry makers and export to countries like Switzerland and Britain.

Currently, gold is sold with paper receipts based on the “good faith” of the seller, making it impossible to trace the origin of the gold.

Illegal mining surged along with deforestation in the Amazon during the previous far-right government of Jair Bolsonaro.

The new administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has revoked some of Bolsonaro’s policies that eased off environmental protections. It has pledged to stop deforestation in the Amazon, a biome whose health is considered vital in the fight against climate change. — Reuters

Stubborn Philippine inflation fuels higher for longer rate bets

A VENDOR sells eggs in Marikina public market, May 30, 2022. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ WALTER BOLLOZOS

Philippine inflation at a fresh 14-year high has prompted bets that the central bank will extend its monetary tightening and hit a higher-than-initially expected peak policy rate. 

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will raise borrowing costs by another 75 basis points in the coming meetings, according to a median forecast in the latest Bloomberg survey. That compares with a half-point estimate in a January survey.

All nine analysts polled after the January inflation data see the possibility of a higher BSP terminal rate. Of that, seven flagged a longer-than-expected tightening cycle, with some seeing an end to rate increases as late as June.

Policymakers will next set the overnight borrowing rate — currently at 5.5% — on Thursday and analysts are split between a half- and 25-basis-point increase.

Inflation at the highest level since 2008 puts in question BSP Governor Felipe Medalla’s remarks last month that an end to rate increases could come this quarter. Following the latest consumer-price data, Mr. Medalla said he can’t discount further price shocks. 

Analysts raised their forecasts on average price gains this year by full percentage point to 5.4%, with inflation seen staying above 8% in the first quarter, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.

The Philippines’ statistician said price risks have broadened. In India too, inflation flared up in January. In contrast, price gains are on a downtrend in Indonesia and Thailand.

BSP may also take its cue from the Federal Reserve where a possible re-acceleration in consumer price growth boosts bets for a higher rate path. “More comfortable interest-rate differentials” could help stabilize the peso and inflation, said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.’s Michael Ricafort. 

More work is needed to cool prices, according to BSP, which has so far raised the rate by 350 basis points, among the most in the region. “Non-monetary measures are urgently needed,” said China Banking Corp.’s Domini Velaquez, who forecast a BSP terminal rate of 6%.

While full-year Philippine output growth hit its fastest since 1976 in 2022, challenges point to a slower expansion this year. Still, the nation is forecast to remain among Asia’s economic bright spots, giving room for BSP to sustain its most-aggressive monetary tightening in two decades, if needed. — Bloomberg

New Russian offensive underway in Ukraine, says NATO

JERNEJ FURMAN-FLICKER

KYIV — The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was facing heavy artillery fire as the NATO chief backed reports from local officials that a major new Russian offensive had begun, days before the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion.

Ukrainian defenders, who have already held out for months, were defending new ground attacks under heavy shelling, Ukrainian military officials said.

Over the past day, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in one settlement of the Kharkiv region, around five settlements in Luhansk region and six settlements in Donetsk region, including in the Bakhmut area, the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said on Tuesday.

Positions in Bakhmut have been fortified and only people with a military role were being allowed in, while any civilians who still wanted to leave the city would have to brave the incoming fire, a deputy battalion commander said on Monday.

“There is not a single square meter in Bakhmut that is safe or that is not in range of enemy fire or drones,” Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of the Donetsk region, told the Ukrainian national broadcaster late on Monday.

Bakhmut is a prime objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region and a rare victory after months of setbacks.

The Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, now partially occupied by Russia which wants full control.

“We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, saying it was the start of a new offensive.

The Russian assault on Bakhmut has been spearheaded by mercenaries of the Wagner group, who have made small but steady gains. The renewed Russian bombardments made the situation there even more acute.

The Russian defense ministry said its troops had pushed forward a few kilometers along the frontlines, without specifying where.

“Thank you to every one of our soldiers who are preventing the occupiers from encircling Bakhmut… and who are holding our key positions at the front,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his evening address.

Reuters was not able to independently verify the battlefield reports.

NATO TO DISCUSS FURTHER AID
The United Nations’ human rights office said on Monday it had recorded 7,199 civilian deaths and 11,756 wounded since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, mostly from shelling and missile and air strikes. However, it believed the actual figure was far higher.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, in what it calls a “special military operation” to “denazify” the country and protect Russian speakers. Western leaders say it was nothing more than a land grab.

Moldova’s president accused Russia on Monday of planning to use foreign saboteurs to bring down her leadership and use it in the war against Ukraine.

Zelenskiy said last week his country had uncovered a Russian intelligence plan “for the destruction of Moldova.” Days later the government of the country, bordering Ukraine and Romania, resigned.

Russia denied last year wanting to intervene in Moldova after authorities in Transdniestria, a breakaway region that has survived for three decades with support from Moscow, said they had been targeted by a series of attacks.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Monday said reports of the plot had not been independently confirmed but were “deeply concerning” and “certainly not outside the bounds of Russian behavior.”

With Ukraine desperate for more weapons, defense ministers from several NATO countries allied to Kyiv will meet in Germany on Tuesday to discuss possible further military aid.

On the eve of the meeting, Ukraine’s top general and the most senior US Army commander in Europe discussed military aid and training in a telephone conversation. Ukraine says it needs fighter jets and long-range missiles.

Stoltenberg said he expected the issue of aircraft to be discussed, but that Ukraine needed support on the ground now.

A NATO source said it would increase targets for the stockpiling of ammunition as Kyiv was burning through shells much faster than Western countries can produce.

Western capitals will lay out additional pledges of ammunition and air defense equipment for Ukraine on Tuesday, officials told the FT.

Training of Ukrainian forces on the Leopard 2 and other modern battle tanks that are to boost the country’s defense is underway in several European countries, including Poland, Britain and Germany. — Reuters

Japan’s weak Q4 GDP rebound poses challenge for BOJ’s exit path

REUTERS

TOKYO – Japan’s economy averted recession but rebounded much less than expected in the fourth quarter as business investment slumped, a sign of the challenge the central bank faces in phasing out its massive stimulus program.

While private consumption is holding up against headwinds from rising living costs, uncertainties over the global economic outlook will weigh on Japan’s delayed recovery from the scars of the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts say.

The world’s third-largest economy expanded an annualized 0.6% in the final quarter of last year after slumping a revised 1.0% in July-September, government data showed on Tuesday.

The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) was much smaller than a median market forecast for a 2.0% rise, due to a downswing in capital expenditure and inventory.

“From a negative growth in July-September, the rebound isn’t very impressive,” said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities.

“We can expect consumption to pick up as service spending stabilizes. But it’s difficult to project a strong recovery partly due to pressure from rising inflation,” he said.

BOJ POLICY CHALLENGE

The weak data highlights the delicate task at hand for Kazuo Ueda, the government’s nominee to become next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, as he plots a path to normalizing the bank’s ultra-easy policy without derailing a fragile economic recovery.

Policymakers hope a rebound in consumption, driven by savings accumulated during the pandemic, will last long enough for wages to pick up and cushion the blow on households from rising food and fuel costs.

With inflation exceeding the BOJ’s 2% target, the outlook for the economy and wages will be key to how soon the central bank could phase out its massive stimulus program.

“It might be hard for the BOJ to normalize ultra-easy policy this year as overseas economies are slowing,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

“The BOJ may have to wait until fiscal 2024 at the earliest.”

While private consumption rose 0.5% and external demand added 0.3 percentage point to growth, capital expenditure was a drag on the economy, falling a bigger-than-expected 0.5%, the data showed.

Private inventories also shaved 0.5 point off growth as firms saw declining stock of automobile and raw materials.

RECESSION RISKS

For the full year, the economy expanded 1.1% compared with a 2.1% increase in 2021, the data showed.

Japan has seen an increase in the number of overseas visitors since ending in October some of the world’s strictest border controls to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economy minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters the economy was on course for a recovery as the pandemic’s impact fades.

“Rising inflation and the global slowdown are risks,” he said after the data release. “But corporate spending appetite hasn’t cooled … we’re not too pessimistic about the outlook.”

Some analysts, however, warn that global headwinds could weigh on the export-reliant economy and derail a fragile recovery by discouraging manufacturers to hike pay.

“With other advanced economies heading into recessions, we still expect net trade to drag Japan into a recession as well in the first half, especially since business investment is weakening faster than we had expected,” said Darren Tay, Japan economist at Capital Economics. — Reuters