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Senior Citizens rep seek detailed plan on elderly care from presidential, VP bets

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MICHAEL VARCAS

THE PARTY-LIST representing senior citizens in Congress is seeking concrete plans from presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the May elections on how to improve the country’s elderly care system. 

“What the Senior Citizen Party-list wants to hear from all the presidential and vice-presidential candidates is their detailed agenda to protect seniors from abuse,” Senior Citizens Rep. Rodolfo M. Ordanes said in a statement on Thursday, referring in particular to pension funds.

He cited that there are pending bills intended to protect retirees from falling victim to “loan sharks and lending firms,” who take advantage of the pension distributed by the Social Service System and the Government Service Insurance System.

Mr. Ordanes also said there should be a bigger allocation for senior citizens in the annual national budget. 

“There are mandated budget shares for the youth and GAD (gender and development), but not the same for seniors,” he said. 

The Department of Social Welfare and Development is given a fund for a P500 monthly social pension for every qualified indigent senior, distributed on a quarterly basis. 

Mr. Ordanes said the pending bill that will double the social pension amount to P1,000, which is supported by both the Senate and the House of Representatives, will likely be passed before the Duterte administration and the current Congress steps down on June 30. — Jaspearl Emerald G. Tan 

Haller scores at both ends as Ajax force 2-2 away draw

LISBON — Prolific striker Sebastien Haller was again among the goals as Ajax Amsterdam forced a 2-2 draw away at Benfica on Wednesday in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie.

Not only did the lanky Haller score to take his tally in this season’s competition to 11 goals in seven games, but he also contributed an own goal in a pulsating clash at the Estadio da Luz.

The Dutch club were ahead after 18 minutes through captain Dusan Tadic, but an unfortunate own goal from Haller saw the scores level seven minutes later.

Ajax, however, did not take long to restore their lead as Haller made amends with a close-in finish in the 29th minute.

A second-half header from substitute Roman Yaremchuk ensured a draw for the hosts and a boost to their hopes in the second leg next month.

The action swung from one end of the pitch to the other in a high-tempo match with Ajax profiting from their pressing game and Benfica always looking dangerous on the counterattack.

It was a squeeze on fullback Gilberto, after a poor kick out from his goalkeeper Odisseas Vlachodimos, that saw Ajax create the first goal as Noussair Mazraoui stole away possession and whipped in a cross that Tadic calmly side-footed home on the half volley.

Former Ajax defender Jan Vertonghen was at the heart of Benfica’s 25th-minute opener. He had two efforts blocked but persisted in chasing the ball in the penalty area, then whipped in a square ball that struck Haller and deflected into the Ajax net.

There was a touch of irony three minutes later as a deflection off Vertonghen was stopped by Vlachodimos but Haller was well placed to snap up the rebound and restore Ajax’s lead.

They should have gone into the break with a bigger lead, but Edson Alvarez hit the bottom of the upright with an angled shot on the stroke of halftime.

Benfica had several second-half breaks as Rafa Silva’s running offered them a way back into the tie. His 60th-minute pass to Darwin Nunez was missed by centimetres but Silva’s creativity set up the 72nd-minute equalizer.

He found Goncalo Ramos on the edge of the area, whose shot on goal was parried up into the air by Ajax goalkeeper Remko Pasveer and Yaremchuk ran through to power home the looping ball with his head.

Ajax host the return match at the Amsterdam Arena on March 15. — Reuters

Liverpool hits Leeds for six to close gap on City

LIVERPOOL, England — Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane scored twice each as Liverpool crushed Leeds United (6-0) on Wednesday to close the gap on Premier League leaders Manchester City to three points.

City’s surprise home loss to Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend ignited hopes of another exhilarating title race if Liverpool won their game in hand against Leeds, and that never looked in doubt.

After taking a 15th-minute lead through Salah’s penalty, the title chasers were unrelenting, as Joel Matip’s first league goal of the season and another Salah spot-kick effectively put the game to bed before the interval.

Salah was again instrumental in the move that led to Mane slotting home the fourth 10 minutes from time, before the Senegalese forward added his second in the 90th minute.

Virgil van Dijk headed home the sixth in stoppage time to complete the perfect evening for Klopp’s men and send a real message of intent to City.

The victory, Liverpool’s ninth in a row in all competitions, moved them on to 60 points from 26 matches, three behind the champions — the closest they have been to them since Christmas Day.

“I think for people outside it is better to have three or six-point gap than to have a 20 or 30-point gap, so it is more exciting,” Klopp told the BBC.

“But we have to win a lot of the games against all the difficult opponents and that will be a tricky task. We will give it a try.”

Leeds slipped further into the relegation battle, remaining 15th and only three points clear of the bottom three.

Coming into the match, Leeds had conceded at least twice in each of their last five away league games, having also shipped four at home to Manchester United on Sunday.

It did not take them long to concede at Anfield under the lights, with Stuart Dallas handling in the penalty area, and Salah slotting home.

PROMISING SITUATIONS
While Liverpool continued to dominate, Leeds did pose a threat on the counter, but their inability to make a few promising situations count proved costly as Salah supplied a perfect pass for Matip to add the second goal.

The hosts threatened to run riot as another sumptuous pass from Salah set Mane free, the Senegal striker was brought down by Luke Ayling in the penalty area, and Salah made no mistake from the spot — the 19th league goal of the season for the division’s top scorer.

Liverpool, who took their Anfield league goal tally to 50 for the season with that second penalty, should have had at least one more before the break, with Fabinho and Salah both missing clear-cut openings.

Salah was in the mood for another Premier league hat trick, but wasted another glorious chance on the hour mark, blazing over from a good position.

The Egyptian had to settle for another wonderful pass in to Jordan Henderson, who squared for Mane to make it four, before Mane thought he had completed the scoring having reacted fasted to the rebound after substitute Divock Origi’s shot had been saved.

Van Dijk, however, got in on the act, as the Premier League’s most porous defense conceded again.

“Two different teams in class,” Leeds midfielder Adam Forshaw said. “It is difficult coming to a place like this, but we are missing big players, we have missed them through the season.

“Tonight feels like the end of the world, but we are still in an okay position; we can’t feel sorry for ourselves.”

Given how close Liverpool and City are, the title could be decided on goal difference and this result will do Klopp’s side a world of good in that regard. — Reuters

Elanga earns Man United late draw at Atletico

MADRID — A late goal from substitute Anthony Elanga rescued a 1-1 draw for Manchester United at Atletico Madrid in their Champions League last-16 first-leg clash on Wednesday.

United, looking disjointed and lacking spark, were cornered from the start by a relentless Atleti, who opened the scoring after seven minutes with a brilliant header by Joao Felix from Renan Lodi’s cross.

Atletico had many opportunities to extend their lead and hit the post twice but were punished by a defensive mistake which gifted the ball to Bruno Fernandes 10 minutes from time.

The Portuguese playmaker found Elanga behind the defensive line and the 19-year-old striker scored with a precise cross shot, one of only two United efforts on target in the whole game.

United faced a hostile atmosphere at Metropolitano stadium as the home fans packed the sold-out venue and cheered loudly as their team make a fast start.

“Looking at the game, the way it was, we have to feel really happy with the result,” United manager Ralf Rangnick told a news conference.

“After the performance in the first half it could only get better. What we played in the first half — I still can’t believe it. We played without conviction and the necessary aggression against the ball. That’s why we were really struggling.”

Atletico suffocated United’s defense with a fierce high pressing game and dominated the ball with almost 70% of possession.

The Premier League side failed to register a shot on target in the first half and the hosts almost extended their lead just before hal time when Sime Vrsaljko’s header struck the crossbar.

With his team failing to break down Atleti’s compact defensive lines, Rangnick made four substitutions, replacing Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford with Alex Telles and Elanga who came up with the equalizer.

Atletico substitute Antoine Griezmann nearly grabbed a late winner for the hosts, but his shot from inside the box hit the post.

“We are not happy because it was not a good display of football from us, but we are strong at home and we believe we can improve in the second leg, win and advance,” Telles told a news conference. — Reuters

MLB vows shortened season if no deal by Monday

MAJOR League Baseball (MLB) reinforced its deadline by saying there will be a shortened season if no deal on a new collective bargaining agreement is reached by Monday.

And with another day of little movement in negotiations in Jupiter, FL, that’s beginning to look like a cold reality.

“A deadline is a deadline. Missed games are missed games. Salary will not be paid for those games,” an MLB spokesperson said in a statement.

MLB set the Feb. 28 deadline to allow the regular season to begin on time, March 31.

MLB and the MLBPA met again on Wednesday for the third straight day. It was the league’s turn to put forth a counteroffer, which it did — offering to increase the minimum salary by $10,000 per year.

That would put the minimum at $640,000 for 2022; the players are asking for $775,000 in 2022 with $30,000 jumps each season afterward.

The sides also remain far apart on the competitive balance tax (CBT), also known as the luxury tax, threshold and bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. The sides are $95 million apart on the bonus pool. Meanwhile, the CBT has not been broached either of the past two days.

Six of the eight members of the union’s executive subcommittee showed up for talks on Wednesday, a group including Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Francisco Lindor.

The sides are set to meet again on Thursday. — Reuters

Decision on expansion to Las Vegas due this spring

A DECISION from MLS on whether to add Las Vegas as the league’s 30th club is expected to be made before the end of April, commissioner Don Garber said on Wednesday.

While Las Vegas is considered the favorite to land an MLS franchise by a wide margin, Garber was not yet ready to announce a done deal, although he gave a hint that a decision in that direction could be on the way.

The bid to make Las Vegas the league’s newest expansion club is being led by Wes Edens, a billionaire private equity investor who is co-owner of the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks.

“It’s not fair to say Vegas is all but done,” Garber said. “Expansion deals are complicated in any market.”

MLS is set to welcome Charlotte FC as an expansion club this season, with St. Louis City SC set to come on board in 2023.

“Going to a place that requires a soccer-specific stadium, you have to be sure that everything is aligned,” Garber said about the potential addition of Las Vegas. “Everything needs to be aligned with the community, fan base and politically.

“We are making a lot of progress. We hope to finalize something in the first third of the year. I could not be more excited about working with Wes.” — Reuters

Detached teammate

CJ McCollum isn’t merely anybody, and the Pelicans knew it when they traded for him at the deadline two weeks ago. It’s why they willingly gave up vital cogs Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to get him, and why they cast moist eyes on the prospect of his explosive pairing with resident superstar Zion Williamson. There’s just one problem, though: the latter doesn’t seem to think so — or worse, doesn’t seem to care.

Heading into the All-Star Weekend, McCollum still hadn’t heard from Williamson. Typically, marquee names get in touch with each other soon after learning they’ll be teammates, and not simply to dispense with the pleasantries. They want to win, and a big part of winning involves hitting the ground running with a partner in progress. The way things had turned out, it was evidently not the case with the Pelicans. As their new acquisition admitted in an interview with TNT’s famed crew of Shaquille O’Neal, Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith, and Ernie Johnson, “I haven’t had conversations with him directly. I’ve spoken with some people close to him, and look forward to sitting down with him sooner than later. I know about as much as you do right now, but I’m gonna get to the bottom of it.”

Interesting choice of words, and certainly not what the Pelicans would have like to hear. Not that McCollum, who also happens to be the president of the players association and, in his words, “a leader all my life,” was taking it hard. And, to be fair, Williamson did reach out to him once word of his comments reached the rehabbing junior.

That said, McCollum’s even-keeled reaction makes revelations of former Pelican JJ Redick regarding Williamson’s predilection to stay disengaged. “There’s a responsibility that you have as an athlete when you play a team sport to be fully invested,” he said on ESPN’s First Take the other day. “You’re fully invested in your body, you’re fully invested in your work, and you’re fully invested in your teammates. That is your responsibility, and we have not seen that from Zion.”

Interestingly, the Pelicans just sent season ticket holders e-mail on renewal plans available for the 2022-23 season, and nowhere in the correspondence was Williamson mentioned. In all likelihood, it was because the front office did not want patrons to be disappointed with his continued absence. What isn’t clear: why it appears he will remain decommissioned for the foreseeable future. Is his nagging foot injury the cause? Will he need a second surgery to address it? Or is he forcing his way out?

Only time will tell how the Pelicans will emerge from all the mystery. If they’re bent on truly contending for the hardware, however, they would need Williamson burning rubber, and, more importantly, shedding himself of his image as “a detached teammate,” per Redick. Else, they’ll be stuck with exactly what their latest public relations material reflects: McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valančiūnas. In other words, they’ll be good but not great — and far from what the fans deserve.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and Human Resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

All over but the counting?

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The Commission on Elections (Comelec) First Division has ruled in favor of Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. on three consolidated disqualification petitions against his candidacy for President. The decision is a major victory against the legal challenges to Marcos’ drive for the country’s highest office.

But more than the decision itself, the manner in which it was arrived at, and the justification for it, have outraged lawyers, former government officials, and those ordinary folk who have some sense of both logic and justice.

All are understandably alarmed, and in various ways have expressed fears for the integrity and fairness of the May 2022 electoral exercise. It is the Comelec that is, after all, charged with that responsibility as mandated by the 1987 Constitution, which gives it a vast range of powers and oversight functions in the conduct of the elections that in this country are held every three years.

To allay citizen fears of Comelec partiality in the coming electoral exercise because of its belittling and excusing Marcos Junior’s failure to pay his taxes, for which he was convicted of tax evasion in 1995, spokesperson James Jimenez rushed to the defense of his colleagues by declaring that they did not say that the failure to file an Income Tax Return (ITR) is not a punishable offense. “It is,” he said.

And yet, what is one to say of the declaration by Aimee Ferolino — and Marlon Casquejo’s agreement with it — that Marcos Junior’s non-filing of his ITR for four consecutive years was a “mere omission,” and, in so many words, that there is no law punishing it?

Every taxpayer — except, it seems, Marcos Junior, Ferolino and Casquejo — knows that not paying taxes can mean a fine from P500,000 to P10 million as well as imprisonment of from six to 10 years. No one in their right minds would pay taxes otherwise.

Former Bureau of Internal Revenue Director Kim Henares also pointed out that the law is clear about the consequences of evading taxes for those in public office: “If you are a government official, you violate any provision of the Tax Code, (and) you get convicted, you are perpetually disqualified (from serving in any government post).”

Other lawyers essentially said the same thing: that Marcos Junior was convicted of not paying taxes from 1982 to 1985, and that the law also mandates disqualification from public office for the offender. But in one more demonstration of the extent of dynastic impunity, like his mother, who was convicted of seven counts of graft in 2018 and sentenced to six to 11 years’ imprisonment for each count, he did not spend a single day in prison despite that conviction.

As if Ferolino and Casquejo’s out-of-this world justification for rejecting the petition to disqualify Marcos Junior was not enough, they also waited until the third member of the Comelec First Division, Commissioner Rowena Guanzon, had retired before releasing their decision, and whose vote they therefore pointedly excluded.

Guanzon was in favor of disqualifying Marcos on the argument that his failure to pay his taxes for four years was not a “mere omission,” and that they “were repeated, persistent and consistent (and) reflective of a conscious design and intent to avoid a positive duty under the law and an intent to evade taxes due.” She also said that “moral turpitude” is “a question of fact and depends on all the surrounding circumstances.” Henares, however, said Marcos’ conviction was “simply a criminal case” for which he should be disqualified from ever running for a public office.

Given these circumstances, no one can be blamed for suspecting that what remained of the membership of the Comelec’s First Division after Guanzon’s retirement was determined, whatever the law says, and despite the evidence, to deny the consolidated petitions to disqualify Marcos Junior from running for President. They therefore concocted one of the lamest excuses ever heard in this neck of the woods to justify their decision, perhaps on the assumption that it would be confusing enough to defy criticism.

But what their decision has done is to awaken fears that the Comelec, rather than being the independent Constitutional body it is supposed to be, is once again, as it has so often been in the past — does anyone still remember the 2005 “hello Garci” scandal, or the 2016 allegations that the then Comelec Chair had received “commissions” from the lawyers of computerized elections technology provider Smartmatic? — being partial to certain candidates, which would make the results of the May elections less than credible.

A decision by the Comelec Second Division on the remaining disqualification case against Marcos Junior is still pending. Filed by a group led by lawyer Christian Monsod, who was one of the drafters of the 1987 Constitution, a denial of that petition based on the same argument or something similarly outrageous and illogical would further stoke those fears.

Not that succeeding events have been reassuring. Hardly had the ink in the First Division decision dried when at least two other controversies involving the Comelec further fanned those fears.

The Comelec’s “Oplan Baklas,” which is supposed to implement its own rules on the size and dimensions of political tarpaulins and posters, has been accused of bias against Vice-President and candidate for President Leni Robredo and her running mate Senator Francisco Pangilinan.

Comelec and police teams are whitewashing and taking down even those Robredo-Pangilinan murals, posters, and streamers on private property. Not only is the participation of policemen a violation of the rule against the political partisanship of government employees, their invasion of the properties of the citizenry also violates Section 2 of the 1987 Constitution’s Bill of Rights (“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers and effects against unreasonable searches and seizures of whatever nature and for any purpose shall be inviolable…”).

That is not all, however. In what appears to be a brazen, in- your-face display of contempt for propriety and public opinion, whoever are in charge of the Comelec offices in Manila have chosen to bathe them in red and green lights — red and green are the colors of the Marcos Junior-Sara Duterte tandem — two months after the passing of the Christmas season.

Elections are among those exercises through which a free people are able to delegate their sovereign powers of self-government to their chosen representatives. Surely the Comelec knows that elections have to be free, honest, and fair to be legitimate expressions of the people’s will. It was precisely to make sure that they are, rather than the means through which the oligarchs can endow themselves with a semblance of legitimacy so they can remain in power, that the Comelec was created in 1940 through an amendment in the 1935 Constitution.

But the Comelec has since then demonstrated that it is about as independent from the powers-that-be and their collaborators as the rest of the government’s civilian and military bureaucracy.

The message these stark demonstrations of the impunity and power of the incumbents and their allies, clones, and surrogates are sending the entire citizenry is to abandon the pretense and the hope that the Philippines is, or will ever be, a democracy.

Together with the above indicators of seeming Comelec partisanship are, after all, such other probabilities as that — as the residents of certain cities in the provinces allege — the ballots have all been filled up, and, despite the official campaign period’s having just begun, the elections are all over but for the counting.

 

Luis V. Teodoro is on Facebook and Twitter (@luisteodoro).

www.luisteodoro.com

Gotong royong: Preparing for the transition

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During our long years with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), we used to prepare briefing folders for every incoming president of the Republic, should some materials about monetary policy, the banking system and the state of the macroeconomy be requested. The leadership of the BSP has always been conscious that the BSP, although a government financial institution, is constitutionally an independent and accountable body corporate. The BSP governor is not part of the cabinet, and his appointment is not confirmed by the Commission on Appointments. Central banking policies are shaped by the collegial decision of the seven-man Monetary Board.

But the monetary authorities have remained engaged with our fiscal authorities because tax policies and public spending exert tremendous impact on domestic demand as well as price and financial stability. In turn, BSP’s periodic adjustments in both interest rates and money supply are key considerations in domestic borrowing by the National Government (NG). This partnership is institutionalized in the cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee where the BSP attends as a resource institution.

We cited our BSP experience to support what was reported in the broadsheets the other day. Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez, the head of this administration’s economic managers, announced that his department is preparing “a transition plan to help the next administration manage the country’s debt.” His plan consists of a combination of improvements to tax administration to plug what he called existing leakages and updated proposals that leverage on previous reforms.

Needless to say, this will be most helpful to the new president’s ability to hit the ground running after the inauguration at Rizal Park on June 30, 2022.

For the new head of state will be taking the first step in statecraft with a huge NG debt of about P12 trillion, or more than 60% of GDP, by the end of the first half of this year, courtesy of the pandemic and everything else. The Duterte government had little option but to borrow a total of $22.55 billion or roughly P1.15 trillion to respond to the health crisis in the last two years. Its last six months will be no different.

The global context of the briefer to the new Philippine political leadership will certainly help bring it up to speed. First, never, never forget what IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called “economic long COVID” in her remarks before the Group of 20 virtual meeting on Feb. 18 in Brussels, Belgium under Indonesia’s chairmanship. Global economic losses were estimated at nearly $14 trillion by end-2024, and durable economic recovery is impossible without the virus being completely neutralized. It is sobering to know that the Fund remains wary of COVID-19 virus because nobody knows how it is going to mutate in the future, even as the viral spread has gone down in many parts of the world.

In this connection, Bill Gates’ recent view should keep us on our toes. Yes, “the risk of catching severe COVID-19 infection has dramatically reduced,” but there could be another pandemic. “It will be a different pathogen next time.”

He cites what Australia did to contain and manage the current pandemic as the way to deal with other pandemics in the future: act quickly and decisively based on good data; collaborate across all government levels including a one-day passage of a $130-billion economic bailout including six-month wage subsidy; build social capital to build trust among the public like providing easy access to diagnostics and healthcare facilities; and open lines of communication to ascertain actual needs on the ground and deliver them fast.

Incompetence and corruption should be purged from the health and economic recovery equation.

In the Philippines, it is not enough for the new president to know that starting 2020 and onwards for the next 10 to 40 years, the pandemic cost to us is going to be a whopping P41.4 trillion, eight times our average annual budget. Its direct hit on private investment and human capital investment was just too severe.

The briefing folders may have to clarify that we need to go beyond the old mold of focusing our strategy towards just more vaccination rollouts. As the Fund reminds the world, and as confirmed by Australia, good access to a comprehensive COVID-19 toolkit that includes both diagnostics and therapies is most effective. This will require more public spending on medical research, disease surveillance, and a health system that would empower us to reach “the last mile.”

Next, Georgieva also called attention to the challenges of a tightening monetary cycle. Obviously, not all countries share the same business and financial cycles. However, because the US and other big economies are about to get themselves wet in the new normal of monetary tightening given their strong output performance and spiraling inflation, it is the spillover risks that should concern emerging markets like the Philippines.

The BSP’s exit strategy may already be unwrapped to provide additional forward guidance to the market, even if conditions are attached. The point is to bolster market confidence that the monetary authorities are prepared to act when the markers start to move.

While the prognosis on price movement in the Philippines is pointing to the north at 3.7% and 3.3% for 2022 and 2023, respectively, it looks like such forecasts may have to be recast. The assumptions on oil and the exchange rate may no longer be consistent with the latest readings. Oil prices are closer to $95 per barrel and the peso is now exchanging at more than P51 to a dollar. Both may stay that way far longer than expected, such that their averages could be higher. True, the BSP can be patient with its stance, but a preemptive move seems wise because monetary policy may take a while before its impact is felt in the real sector. In fact, when our authorities decide it is time to act, we might have already missed the boat.

And finally, the IMF also flagged the imperative of fiscal sustainability. This is what Secretary Dominguez has started to prepare to help the new administration navigate the treacherous waters of fiscal and debt sustainability. Extraordinary stimulus helped cushion the impact of death and joblessness but with tax collection down, heavy indebtedness is almost inevitable.

The numbers could be frightening. Pre-crisis, fiscal deficit aggregated P660 billion or 3.4% of GDP. In the first year of the pandemic, it rose to P1.37 trillion or 7.6% of GDP. As of November 2021, the shortfall exceeded P1.33 trillion or 8.3% of GDP.

These deficits were funded by borrowings, here and abroad. In 2019, NG debt was only at P7.73 trillion or 39.6% of GDP. We had to borrow to cover the gap, bringing the NG debt to P9.79 trillion or 54.6% of GDP in 2020, and P11.73 trillion or 60.5% of GDP in 2021. No matter how one looks at these numbers, they need to be managed.

It was good we had fiscal space when the virus started to dominate our lives. The country benefitted from its investment-grade credit rating to secure funds from abroad to fund our pandemic response. The task would have been easier if we remained firm in realigning the budget to support health and education, rather than counter-insurgency and political intelligence. Avoidance of corruption in the procurement of medical supplies, medicine and vaccines could have provided our budget more mileage. The BSP’s accommodative and low interest rate regime somewhat lessened the public burden from a pandemic-induced borrowing spree.

We can all welcome and pray for the recipient of the briefing folders on what a new head of state ought to know on day one of serving this beloved Republic. A most appropriate Indonesian phrase to capture our pursuit of good governance is gotong royong or “working together to achieve a common goal.” That common goal, without reservation, is first to restore public trust in an honest, competent, righteous, and just government.

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Hypergamy and the rise of childless women

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Once, having drinks, I got into a somewhat animated conversation with a friend over a statement I casually threw out: that, contrary to popular belief, women actually initiate the mating process. They make the first move. Subtly, either by non-verbal actions or gesture or even more subtly by pheromones, a woman signals interest first, leaving it up to the man to make the actual approach. For some reason, it set my friend off, with her going on an extended rant about “social constructs” and the “patriarchy.”

Now this recollection is made because it illustrates today’s problem when talking about social policy issues: the emotional refusal to consider opposing views, even concrete scientific information, for the sake of political correctness and feelings. Take for example discussions surrounding that of female “hypergamy.”

Hypergamy, so says psychologists — including Jordan Peterson — is the inclination of women to “date across or up.” That women prefer dating men that are at least their equal or have more in terms of income, status, or looks.

In evolutionary terms, this makes impeccable sense: a woman will seek a mate that ensures her survival, provides the best possible genes for her offspring, and won’t abandon her while she takes care of her children. Income, status, and education are essentially evidence of intelligence, perseverance, and overall good health, including the psychological ability to commit.

This necessity was more apparent in really primitive days when humans had to hunt to survive, all the way up to a bigger part of the last century when women were not allowed access to education or work.

However, in these quite supposedly egalitarian times, when there are more educated, working, and independent women than at any time in history, hypergamy should not be a thing, right? Wrong. As psychologists and sociologists are finding out, hypergamy is even more deeply embedded in women than ever before.

As per “Whither hypergamy” (Institute for Family Studies, Jan. 29, 2020): “Hypergamy turns out to be a stubborn thing. It seems that the highly credentialed alpha female still prefers a mate above her pay grade. In one of the most widely cited papers on the subject, demographer Yue Qian compared couples in the 1980 Census and in 2012 American Community Survey. She found that during the intervening decades, though wives became more likely to marry down in terms of educational achievement, ‘the tendency for women to marry men with higher incomes than themselves persisted.’ In fact, women with the same or more education than their husbands were more likely to marry up.”

Even in Sweden, whose “commitment to gender egalitarianism is close to a state religion,” the results of a study conducted there “published in the December 2019 issue of The European Sociological Review, confirms Qian’s findings.” Thus, when it comes “to income, hypergamy re-asserted itself. In every union type, including those with a more educated female partner, ‘men are the most likely to be the main earners’.” Which leads to this conclusion: “women appear to have an especially strong preference for men who out-earn them. If the Swedes are any indication, couples are blase’ about gender equality, but not about hypergamy.”

What’s the point of all this? Because hypergamy, despite its obvious significance in understanding human relations, is set aside and completely ignored to appease feminist ideology and political correctness. And yet, years and years of that same feminist, liberal progressive indoctrination in the academe and media, as well as indulgences with online gaming and porn, are clearly taking their toll: more and more men are dropping out of universities and the workforce.

In the US, for example, the number of working men age 25 to 54 dropped from 96% in 1970 to around 88% in 2021, with non-college educated men working even fewer at 84%. Also, “American colleges and universities now enroll roughly six women for every four men. This is the largest female-male gender gap in the history of higher education, and it’s getting wider. Last year, US colleges enrolled 1.5 million fewer students than five years ago, The Wall Street Journal recently reported. Men accounted for more than 70% of the decline.”

Considering female hypergamy, the foregoing obviously does not bode well for the mating prospects of substantially many, if not most, men. The result? Official figures for England and Wales reported a record 50.1% of women being childless by the age of 30. This is the first time ever that there are more childless 30-year-old women than mothers since records were kept in 1920.

Add the fact that social media has given women even greater options, if only illusory, to date “across or up” at the global scale. This, ironically, however permitted a smaller number of men to corner the sexual market, the number of available women enabling such men access to casual sex and irresponsible behavior, depriving a substantial number of women the benefits of a committed relationship, and leaving an even greater number of men feeling sexually inadequate, frustrated, and alone.

The negative consequences for society are quite apparent: more broken families, more dysfunctional relationships, more depressed and mentally unhealthy people, less productivity, less social stability. Some experts, culling data from the United Nations and the Pew Research Center, are predicting a possible “baby bust” or even zero population growth by 2100. Or worse: a population collapse.

The lesson here is that when discussing issues of paramount societal importance, particularly about marriage and the family, including discussions about contraception, divorce, and same sex marriage, it is best to keep a level head and focus on scientific data, logical experience, and reality. A wise man once said: “facts don’t care about your feelings.”

Oh, and by the way, I was right: as Psychology Today puts it (“The Many Subtle Ways Women Signal Romantic Interest,” Oct. 26, 2017), “research shows that it is women who typically signal whether a man can make an approach in the first place — initiating the entire [mating] process.”

 

Jemy Gatdula is a senior fellow of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations and a Philippine Judicial Academy law lecturer for constitutional philosophy and jurisprudence

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Wave of oil from Iran may flood into Asia if nuclear deal is agreed on

PIXABAY

IRAN has millions of barrels of oil stored offshore that could flow into a tight global market if a nuclear deal is agreed, with refiners in South Korea likely to be among the first in line to take cargoes.

The Persian Gulf producer may have 65 to 80 million barrels on stationary tankers, according to data intelligence firm Kpler. About four-fifths is condensate, a super-light oil that’s a by-product of natural gas extraction. The overall Iranian volume is higher if crude that’s already in transit is included.

Oil markets are tracking the possible return of official Iranian flows just as benchmark Brent topped $100 a barrel with the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine. An Iranian deal may just be close: there has been significant progress and the sides are close to a possible agreement if some detailed issues are resolved, according to US State Department spokesman Ned Price. A breakthrough would pave the way for US sanctions on Tehran’s oil to be lifted.

While insurance and finance matters may take time to sort after any nuclear deal is agreed, the Iranian oil held in tankers indicates these barrels can be shipped immediately once sold, according to Anoop Singh, head of East of Suez tanker research at Braemar ACM Shibroking Pte in Singapore.

“We think a lot of that will flow to South Korea,” Singh said. “And that may in future also hit South Korean imports of naphtha and light US crude.”

When US sanctions hit, South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest oil user, turned to alternatives from Qatar, the U.S., Australia and Russia, as well as naphtha after the end of the American waivers that permit processors like SK Innovation Co. and Hyundai Oilbank Co. to buy Iranian oil until 2019, according to traders.

At its peak in 2017, South Korea’s monthly imports of Iranian oil averaged about 12.3 million barrels before US sanctions kicked in, according to Korea National Oil Corp. data. Iran’s current floating volume is at least five times of that monthly figure. Other than South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, China and Japan were among the top takers of South Pars condensate.

Although China has taken significant volumes of Iranian crude despite the sanctions, the world’s biggest oil consumer doesn’t have many so-called splitter units that use condensate as feedstock. With the absence of South Korean buyers, just six condensate cargoes were exported to Venezuela in 2020-2021, said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior commodity analyst at Kpler.

Estimates for the volume of oil held off Iran vary wildly as some tankers have “gone dark,” the act of switching off their transponders to avoid detection. Such activities make it tough for observers to track loadings and offloadings, as well as the vessel’s last port of call.

Kpler, which defines floating storage as ships stationary for at least seven days, sees Iran’s oil holdings in vessels to be over 100 million barrels when counting oil-in-transit. Industry consultant Energy Aspects estimates 70-80 million barrels are in onshore and floating storage, while Citigroup Inc. sees 40 million barrels on land and 45 million on tankers. — Bloomberg

Sanofi, GSK seek approval for jab 100% effective against severe COVID-19

PARIS — French drugmaker Sanofi and its British partner GlaxoSmithKline are seeking regulatory approval for their coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine to be used as a booster, as well as a standalone two-dose shot, after several setbacks.

The companies said on Wednesday they intended to submit data to regulators from a late-stage trial of the vaccine, and another testing it as a booster, with full results for both studies expected to be published “later this year.”

Sanofi, which plans to produce the vaccine in France, Italy and the United Sates, is hoping for a comeback after falling behind in the race for COVID-19 shots, while GSK, the world’s biggest vaccine maker by sales, has not developed its own candidate and is instead contributing its adjuvant technology to developers.

Sanofi-GSK’s shot relies on a conventional protein-based approach, compared with the newer mRNA technology used in established COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech PFE.N, 22UAy.DE and Moderna MRNA.O.

It is similar in technology to one of Sanofi’s seasonal influenza vaccines, and is coupled with GSK’s adjuvant, a substance that increases the effectiveness of a shot. It is also easier to store and transport than some rival shots.

The protein technology, which is also behind the recently approved COVID-19 shot from Novavax, has been in use since the mid-1980s, leading public health experts to hope that some of those who have shunned mRNA shots might opt for a vaccine class with a decades-long safety record.

The companies said final analysis of the booster trial, which included participants previously given shots based on mRNA technology or adenovirus viral vectors, showed it could increase neutralizing antibodies by 18 to 30 times.

“We are confident that this vaccine can play an important role as we continue to address this pandemic and prepare for the post-pandemic period,” said President of GSK Vaccines, Roger Connor.

Early data from the late-stage trial of the vaccine as a standalone two-dose shot showed it was 100% effective against severe COVID-19 and hospitalization, with 75% efficacy against moderate or severe disease.

“No other global Phase 3 efficacy study has been undertaken during this period with so many variants of concern, including Omicron, and these efficacy data are similar to the recent clinical data from authorized vaccines,” said Thomas Triomphe, executive vice president for Sanofi Vaccines.

The companies said they were in discussions for approval of their shot with regulators including the US Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency.

A Sanofi spokesperson added the filing was imminent and would take a few days at most.

He reiterated the French drugmaker’s commitment to supply a total of 75 million doses to the EU and Britain, as well as 100 million to the United States, contingent on regulatory approval.

The planned US deliveries would be governed by a $2.1 billion contract with the US government signed in July 2020, he added.

Discussions with the international vaccine-sharing facility COVAX about shipments to lower-income countries are ongoing.

The head of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Richard Hatchett, said new protein-based vaccines administered with adjuvants could “potentially become the workforce for vaccinations in the future,” when asked about the role of late-comers to the vaccine race. CEPI co-runs COVAX.

Sanofi and GSK surprised investors in December by delaying key results from the vaccine trials to this year, while Sanofi also dropped plans for its own mRNA shot due to the dominance of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. — Reuters