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PSEi rebound seen this year if governance issues resolved

A man is silhouetted in an electronic board in this photo illustration taken in Rome. — REUTERS

By Alexandria Grace C. Magno

THE PHILIPPINE Stock Exchange’s (PSE) main index will most likely consolidate or move sideways this year amid continued uncertainty, according to analysts.

China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said as things stand today, the PSE index (PSEi) could go up to the 6,700 level if governance issues are resolved and gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains above 5%.

“There’s a chance that the market could rise to around 6,600-6,700 if we see decisive action on governance issues as well as a sustained trend of GDP growth above 5%,” he said in a Viber message. “Conversely, there’s a risk of the index revisiting 5,600 or lower if economic growth stalls or fresh governance concerns emerge.”

Economic managers expect 6-7% GDP growth this year, slightly faster than the 5.5-6.5% goal in 2025.

A corruption scandal involving anomalous flood control projects has already shaken investor confidence and slowed economic activity last year.

An independent commission is still investigating the allegations that government officials, lawmakers and contractors received billions of pesos in kickbacks from anomalous projects.

The flood control mess has affected the stock market, which slumped in 2025. The PSEi ended lower on Monday — the final trading day of 2025 — at 6,052.92, down by 7.29% or 475.87 points from its end-2024 finish of 6,528.79.

Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said that if anti-corruption measures and governance reforms are pursued seriously, markets could sustain gains above 6,000.

“Local market sentiment was largely supported recently by the S&P’s latest affirmation on the Philippine credit ratings and positive outlook shows that the country’s economic and credit fundamentals remain intact despite geopolitical risks, the Trump factor, and local political noises recently,” Mr. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

In November, S&P Global Ratings kept the Philippines’ long-term “BBB+” and short-term “A-2” ratings with a “positive” outlook, noting that growth prospects remain solid despite the corruption scandal.

The “BBB+” sovereign rating is a notch below the “A”-level grade targeted by the government, while a positive outlook means the Philippines’ credit rating could be raised within 24 months if improvements are sustained.

AP Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Shawn Ray R. Atienza said the PSEi may get stuck between the 6,000 and 6,400 level as weak manufacturing, slow consumer spending, and tighter infrastructure disbursements could hold back growth.

“Conversely, we anticipate 2025 fourth-quarter earnings of mining stocks to cushion macroeconomic woes and serve as a natural hedge against the weakening equity market and depreciating peso,” he said.

The peso on Monday closed at P58.79 per dollar, depreciating by eight centavos from its P58.71 finish on Friday. Year to date, it weakened by 94.5 centavos or 1.61% from its P57.845 close on Dec. 27, 2024.

In a Viber message, Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said the market could see a “solid recovery, potentially reaching 6,300-6,500” if data show strong fourth-quarter GDP growth and inflation remains stable.

Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said the local economy needs positive catalysts to restore confidence and get economic growth back on track.

“This would include inflation remaining under control, a robust labor market, signs that household consumption growth is re-accelerating, investments in the country are recovering, more progress on the investigation of the Philippines’ corruption issues that would in turn help reignite consumer and investor confidence,” he said.

F. Yap Securities Investment Analyst Marky Carunungan said that investors are weighing political and governance uncertainties, which may temper investment and economic momentum.

“For early 2026, we expect the PSEi to trade in a relatively contained 5,900-6,200 range as the market navigates mixed signals from both macroeconomic and policy fronts. The 5,900 level remains as key support, while heavy resistance around 6,120-6,200 continues to cap upside,” he said in a Viber message.

“Until there’s a clearer visibility on governance clarity, fiscal execution, and sustained foreign inflows, our stance remains wait-and-see, with a more constructive market outlook contingent on a decisive break above 6,200 level,” Mr. Carunungan added.

PSE President and Chief Executive Officer Ramon S. Monzon on Monday said that despite the PSEi’s decline last year, there are reasons to be optimistic this year.

“If our government succeeds in its drive to hold the corrupt accountable and institute real and lasting improvements in transparency and governance, our market should be one of the best-performing markets in the region next year,” he said in a statement on Monday.

IPO ACTION
The Philippine stock market may still face limited initial public offering (IPO) action in 2026, as some analysts forecast pointing to no more than four listings.

“We might have at most four IPOs in 2026. The most likely candidates are REITs and those in defensive sectors,” Mr. Colet said, noting that proposed changes to real estate investment trust (REIT) rules and lower interest rates could motivate some sponsors to move forward with REIT IPOs.

In November, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a draft memorandum circular proposing updates to the REIT rules to broaden the definition of income-generating assets, extend sponsors’ reinvestment deadlines, and strengthen disclosure and governance requirements.

Flexible workspaces may sustain growth in 2026

STOCK PHOTO | Image by Radowan Nakif Rehan from Unsplash

By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES’ flexible workspace market is set to expand further this year as global capability centers (GCC) and multinationals increase their presence in key business districts and regional hubs, analysts said.

“We expect continued growth in the flexible workspace sector, supported by both local and global trends,” Mikko Barranda, director for commercial leasing at Leechiu Property Consultants, said in an e-mailed reply to questions. “Global economic uncertainty and cost optimization requirements will reinforce demand further to look for adaptable solutions.”

GCCs, or in-house service hubs of multinational companies, continue to see the Philippines as a key location for talent and cost efficiency.

“For many of these companies, flexible workspaces provide a low-risk entry point before committing to larger, long-term offices,” Mr. Barranda said.

He added that flexible workspaces — offering hot desks, pods, meeting rooms and lounges — have become a staple in corporate real-estate strategies. These models attract project-based teams and market entrants looking to scale operations amid uncertain global conditions and high leasing costs.

Local coworking operator GreatWork Global Workspaces plans to double its footprint by 2026 to capture rising demand.

“We have a strong pipeline of local and international companies requesting GreatWork locations in areas where they are scaling operations and hiring talent,” Ruth Coyoca, assistant vice-president for sales and business development at GreatWork Global Workspaces, said in a Viber message.

GreatWork is in talks with more than 20 landlords across Metro Manila, Clark, Cebu and select regional business districts. Its offices offer coworking areas, private suites and virtual office services with designs featuring natural light, ergonomic layouts and premium finishes.

In 2025, the company recorded about 90% occupancy in its Quezon City and Mandaluyong branches.

About 60% of its tenants are foreign companies — including business process outsourcing and Fortune 500 companies — while 40% are Filipino-led enterprises and government clients.

“This mix provides resilience across economic cycles and reinforces our positioning as a premium, enterprise-ready coworking operator,” Ms. Coyoca said.

PHL firms told to prepare for rise in AI-driven scams

STOCK PHOTO | Image by DC Studio from Freepik

PHILIPPINE ORGANIZATIONS face a higher risk of scams driven by artificial intelligence (AI) this year and should strengthen intelligence-led cybersecurity and employee awareness to limit exposure, according to Trend Micro.

“In 2026, cybercriminal tactics will increasingly be driven by AI and automation,” Trend Micro Philippines Country Manager Ian V. Felipe said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

Autonomous or agentic AI systems are expected to make fraud campaigns more targeted, persuasive, and scalable, according to the cybersecurity software firm’s 2026 Scam Predictions report. These tools let attackers automate scam creation, social engineering and fraud execution with limited human oversight, Mr. Felipe said.

Trend Micro expects phishing, impersonation scams and payment-related fraud to continue rising, often paired with malware infections or account takeover attempts.

Organizations with digital customer touchpoints such as online payment systems, customer service platforms and cloud-based applications are likely to face the highest exposure.

“While the Philippines shares many of the same risk factors as other Asia-Pacific countries, including reliance on hybrid environments and digital platforms, its growth in digital adoption has made proactive cybersecurity a strategic imperative,” Mr. Felipe said.

The company also warned that Philippine organizations would remain targets of advanced persistent threats this year, particularly those handling sensitive data or connected to national and economic infrastructure.

“Any organization with a significant digital footprint, reliance on cloud or hybrid environments or exposure to regional and global networks should consider itself a potential target and take a proactive, intelligence-driven approach to security,” he added.

Other scam types expected to persist include multi-channel fraud, relationship and investment scams, instant payment fraud and delivery- and billing-related schemes, according to Trend Micro.

Scammers are also expected to time attacks around major events such as natural disasters, layoffs and elections to increase credibility and success rates.

Trend Micro estimates that global losses from scams reached $442 billion in 2024, underscoring the scale of the threat as AI-driven techniques become more accessible and sophisticated.

The firm said organizations that combine technical defenses with employee awareness programs would be better positioned to limit risk as scam tactics continue to evolve. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

SEC warns investors against Adscent International

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THE Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has warned the public against Adscent International, saying it is promoting investment schemes that promise unusually high returns over short periods.

In an advisory, the corporate regulator said Adscent International, using Facebook and agents, is soliciting funds or offering loans with promised returns of 120%, 350% and 300% over seven, 20 and 15 days, depending on the completion of certain tasks. The scheme also offers a 10% bonus for referring others.

“Investors may register through their website… or join Facebook groups managed by team leaders to manage their investments and serve as advisers in future transactions,” the SEC said.

The regulator noted that Adscent International’s social media posts offer three investment plans with different profit margins linked to varying minimum and maximum investment amounts.

The SEC said such arrangements constitute an investment contract, which under the Securities Regulation Code must be registered and authorized by the commission.

The code defines an investment contract as a security where funds are invested in a common enterprise with profits expected primarily from the efforts of others.

Adscent International does not have a license to solicit investments. Its chief executive officer has also not been registered as an associated person, compliance officer, salesman or certified investment solicitor for any broker-dealer, investment house, underwriter, investment adviser or mutual fund distributor, the SEC said.

The company’s website link is unavailable, and no other contact information for Adscent International is publicly listed. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

A show for lawyers

A SCENE from Bar Boys: After School

By Joseph L. Garcia, Senior Reporter

Movie Review
Bar Boys: After School
Directed by Kip Oebanda
Produced by 901 Studios
MTRCB Rating: PG

THE 2017 film Bar Boys is becoming quite the beloved franchise, with a 2024 stage adaptation and now with a second movie. Unfortunately for me, I didn’t ride the 2017 hype of the first movie, about friends navigating life and law school. In other words, I did not see it.

What that meant for this review of its sequel was that I had zero emotional investment in the characters (played by Rocco Nacino, Carlo Aquino, and Enzo Pineda). Kean Cipriano attends law school the way his character in the first film did not. (All the actors play the same roles they played in the first film.)

The “boys” are now shown living their lives after passing the bar 10 years ago. Mr. Aquino’s lawyer works for an NGO. Mr. Nacino’s character is a devoted family man, a handsome lawyer in a law firm (and is used only as the face of his firm, much to his dissatisfaction), and a law professor. Mr. Pineda still plays the conflicted rich boy who just can’t have it all; Mr. Cipriano drops his showbiz act from the first film and does the grunt work in law school.

Meanwhile, their beloved law professor, Justice Hernandez (played by veteran Odette Khan), is dying. The boys take turns caring for her. Now, for her, I felt instant love. The boys are good, but any scene that had Ms. Khan in it, frail as she was in wheelchairs and hospital beds, is immediately dominated by her.

However, even Ms. Khan suffered from clunky dialogue, which was probably why I couldn’t immediately love the characters. They don’t sound like real people, or the actors aren’t comfortable with their lines — we note this especially with the newbies in the cast, led by internet sensation Sassa Gurl. In all fairness to her, she levels up her acting skills in the last bits of the film, when she is no longer required to act out classroom recitations. For the rest of the cast, however, their delivery only sounds like a rough idea of how people think lawyers talk. The few times the dialogue does land right (mostly when it’s just the four of the main cast), I’m reminded only of aspiring lawyers I didn’t like (but maybe that’s just me).   

The movie is not unwatchable, despite my nitpicking. Perhaps due to Mr. Oebanda’s roots in activism, we’re given side stories related to social issues: Mr. Aquino’s character, for example, becomes a victim of violence related to his profession. Economic issues are highlighted by Mr. Nacino’s character’s students: Therese Malvar’s CJ strives to become a lawyer to save her village from a corrupt quarrying company; Will Ashley’s Arvin struggles through juggling law school and actual work. We commend Mr. Ashley’s acting skills in bringing justice to that specific arc (that his young boss is a benevolent “nepo baby” played by a handsome Emilio Daez is a bonus). The story arcs bouncing away from the problems of the main four give the film a little more oomph and longevity. We also give credit where credit is due: despite the clunky, jargon-filled dialogue, the film shows the tedium of paperwork, meetings, and red tape that more glamorous legal dramas won’t show — and still somehow make it interesting.

The movie isn’t for me: I’m not a lawyer. The subplots, I feel, can be developed into standalone movies; but as for the main plot, I imagine mid-career lawyers getting shivers up their spine while watching some scenes. This is their show, and they should treat themselves to it.

Desiderata for the Philippines: Piercing the upper limit

A WOMAN pulls mock chains that bind a cardboard crocodile, with a rainbow seen in the background, during an anti-corruption protest at the People Power Monument in Quezon City on Nov. 30, 2025. — REUTERS/NOEL CELIS

As the nation crossed into 2026, the annual ritual of New Year’s resolutions once again crowded our public discourse. The Philippine Government announces yet another reform agenda, our political leaders issue promises of change, and citizens renew long-held hopes. Yet experience, both personal and collective, instructs us that most resolutions do not endure. Studies show that only a small fraction of these intentions are ever fulfilled. The rest dissolve under the weight of vague goals, weak accountability, and the unwillingness to confront difficult structural constraints. They are more crucified on paper, rather than converted.

What is true of individuals is true of nations.

More than a decade ago, Gay Hendricks, in The Big Leap, described what he called the “upper limit problem”: the self-imposed barriers that prevent people and institutions from realizing their full potential. Progress, he argued, requires first acknowledging these limits and then deliberately transcending them, moving from incompetence, to competence, to excellence, and finally to what he termed the “zone of genius,” where purpose, capability, and responsibility converge.

The Philippines today is trapped below its potential not because of a lack of talent, resources, or opportunity, but because it has failed, repeatedly, to break through its governance upper limit. There is great space for getting its act together.

As we must speak plainly, public policy in the Philippines continues to underperform relative to our neighbors not by accident, but by design. We elect legislators without the competence and preparation required for lawmaking. We reward loyalty over merit in public appointments. We tolerate patronage politics and weak institutions, then wonder why execution fails. In doing so, we normalize mediocrity and excuse injustice. That’s how we designed our political and economic system.

The consequences are now evident. Following the conclusion of the Article IV consultation with the Philippines this month, the International Monetary Fund has warned that the balance of risks to the country’s growth is tilted to the downside, explicitly citing corruption allegations, particularly in flood control projects, alongside climate shocks and global trade uncertainty. The Fund has called for stronger governance, firmer adherence to the rule of law, and decisive action against corruption vulnerabilities.

The World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office have echoed these concerns, pointing to eroding public trust as a drag on growth. Even where credit outlooks remain stable, confidence is increasingly fragile.

This is not merely an economic problem. It is a crisis of institutions, leadership, and moral direction.

It is therefore imperative to ask, not rhetorically but seriously, what do we, as a people and as a polity, truly desire for the Philippines? What are our non-negotiable desiderata?

Our answer draws from some years of civic and political engagement with 1Sambayan, particularly since the 2022 national elections. At its heart, 1Sambayan is not a traditional political organization but a reform coalition grounded in shared values. Its People’s Agenda: Nine Principles of Unity and Commitment opens with a reminder from Pope Francis: “Rivers do not drink their own water; trees do not eat their own fruits; the sun does not shine on itself; nor do flowers spread their fragrance for themselves.” Power exists for service. Leadership exists for others.

This moral clarity is precisely what our politics lacks — and precisely what our country needs.

Thus, our desiderata for the Philippines, addressed directly to policymakers and the Filipino people, are clear.

First, elections must be genuinely free, fair, and honest. The right of suffrage is sacred because it determines who governs and how power is exercised. Electoral integrity is not a procedural issue; it is the foundation of legitimate authority.

Second, the nation must unite against corruption — not selectively, not rhetorically, but decisively. Corruption is not a victimless crime; it steals from the poor, weakens institutions, and robs future generations.

Third, the rule of law must be upheld without exception, and human rights must be respected as a matter of policy and principle. Laws lose meaning when enforcement is arbitrary, and development becomes hollow when dignity is denied.

Fourth, the Philippines must safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity with clarity and resolve. A nation that cannot defend its rights cannot inspire confidence among its citizens or its business partners.

Fifth, public health must be treated as a core investment, not a residual expense. A healthy population is a productive population, and access to healthcare — especially for the marginalized — is both a moral and economic imperative. What happened to the PhilHealth funds should be a cautionary tale.

Sixth, the economy must be comprehensively restructured to achieve inclusive, self-sustaining, and resilient growth. Growth that benefits only a few is not progress; it is instability deferred.

Seventh, education, civic values, and cultural integrity must be strengthened. Nation-building depends not only on skills, but on character, responsibility, and a shared sense of purpose.

Eighth, social justice and peace must be actively pursued, particularly in communities long excluded from opportunity and voice. Peace without justice is temporary; justice without peace is incomplete.

Ninth, communities must be empowered to become resilient, especially in the face of climate change. Citizens must have both the capacity and the agency to influence policies that affect their security and livelihoods.

These principles are not aspirational slogans. They are policy imperatives.

As former congressman Joey Salceda has observed, fiscal space is not the same as progress. The Philippines has not failed because of weak growth or uncontrolled inflation. It has stalled because institutions have not kept pace with economic change, and politics has failed to serve the common good. Our plateau is institutional, not technical.

This is where 1Sambayan’s thrust is most urgent. Making the system work requires placing the right people in the right positions through credible elections. It requires mobilizing civil society and the business community to demand transparency and accountability. It requires recognizing that investors, like citizens, value predictability, justice, and the rule of law more than short-term gains.

Human capital — health, education, and the capacity to adapt to technological change — must be the enduring foundation of innovation-led growth. No country has prospered sustainably by neglecting the well-being and capabilities of its people. Public health and quality education are not social add-ons; they are strategic investments that determine productivity, resilience, and national competitiveness.

At the same time, long-delayed structural reforms can no longer be deferred. As the Foundation for Economic Freedom has time and again advanced, constitutional, legal, and regulatory frameworks must be updated to reflect present realities rather than outdated fears. An economic system that entrenches exclusion, limits opportunity, and privileges a narrow few cannot generate dignity, social cohesion, or peace. Reform is not ideological — it is practical, moral, and urgent.

Our ultimate desideratum is for the Philippines to finally pierce its self-imposed upper limit. That we dismantle an unjust political and economic order that restrains the many for the benefit of the few, and replace it with institutions that are fair, competent, and accountable. This demands courage and integrity from policymakers who must govern not for the next election but for the next generation. It demands vigilance and participation from citizens, who must insist that public office is a public trust.

The choice before us is stark and clear: to continue managing decline through cosmetic reforms, or to make the decisive leap toward a good system that works — for the people, by the people, and in service of the common good. Only by choosing the latter can 2026 mark not another year of abandoned resolutions, but the beginning of a sustained national transformation toward a just, sovereign, and inclusive Philippines.

God bless the Philippines!

 

Diwa C. Guinigundo is the former deputy governor for the Monetary and Economics Sector, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). He served the BSP for 41 years. In 2001-2003, he was alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. He is the senior pastor of the Fullness of Christ International Ministries in Mandaluyong.

Further BSP, Fed policy easing may stabilize market sentiment

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FURTHER RATE CUTS from both the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the US Federal Reserve could put some pressure on the peso in the near term, but may help stabilize markets and investor sentiment, analysts said.

“Both the Fed and the BSP signaling room for another rate cut generally point to a more supportive liquidity backdrop… One more cut from both central banks would likely put more mild pressure on the peso’s depreciation as rate differentials remain, while also increasing demand for government securities in the short term as investors can take advantage of lower policy rates and softer yield expectations,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“In the medium term, further easing could help stabilize financial conditions and partially support risk sentiment.”

The BSP on Dec. 11 delivered a fifth straight 25-basis-point (bp) reduction in benchmark borrowing costs, bringing the policy rate to an over three-year low of 4.5%.

It has lowered benchmark rates by a total of 200 bps since its easing cycle began in August 2024. BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has left the door open to one final 25-bp cut this year to help boost the economy amid a dismal outlook due to a wide-ranging corruption scandal involving government infrastructure projects, which has affected public spending and investor confidence.

The Monetary Board will hold its first meeting for this year on Feb. 19.

Meanwhile, the Fed cut by 25 bps for a third consecutive time at its Dec. 9-10 meeting to bring its target rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. It next meets on Jan. 27-28, with investors currently expecting the central bank to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, Reuters reported.

The Fed agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the US economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session.

Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged “the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged,” given the different risks facing the US economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday.

“Most participants” ultimately supported a cut, with “some” arguing that it was an appropriate forward-looking strategy “that would help stabilize the labor market” after a recent slowdown in job creation.

Others, however, “expressed concern that progress towards the committee’s 2% inflation objective had stalled.”

“One more rate cut from BSP and Fed would likely pull yields lower and keep demand for GS (government securities) strong as investors position for a prolonged easing cycle. For the Philippine peso, additional cuts may cause mild short-term pressure, but this should be manageable if global conditions remain stable and inflows hold,” Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said in a Viber message.

However, further policy accommodation by both central banks may not be enough to boost investor sentiment, he said.

“While rate cuts help liquidity and valuations, they may not be enough to fully offset weak sentiment from slower growth expectations. Monetary easing can cushion markets, but restoring confidence will still depend on improved growth prospects, fiscal execution, and clearer policy signals.”

In 2025, global financial markets were roiled by US President Donald J. Trump’s shifting trade policies that he said are meant to reestablish the world’s largest economy’s dominance, as well as geopolitical concerns.

In the Philippines, the graft scandal linking officials of the Public Works department, lawmakers, and private contractors to corruption in allegedly anomalous flood control projects also weighed on investor sentiment, especially in the second half of the year, causing stocks to hit multi-year troughs and the peso to post fresh record lows. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters

Federal Land focuses on bigger Laguna projects after exit from CCPC  

The Grand Midori Ortigas — FEDERALLAND.PH

FEDERAL LAND, INC. said it would concentrate on bigger developments in Laguna province after the divestment of Crown Central Properties Corp. (CCPC). 

“The master-planned community in Biсan developed by CCPC, our joint venture with Crown Equities, is almost fully sold out and represents a small, legacy portion of our total development portfolio,” Federal Land President Jose Mari H. Banzon said in a Viber message on Monday. 

“We decided to divest from CCPC and focus our resources on our more recent and larger developments in Laguna,” he added. 

In October, Mr. Banzon said the company had completed its 2025 project launches and was preparing several residential developments for 2026, including a 21-hectare horizontal project in Biсan, Laguna, as a continuation of its Meadowcrest community. 

He said the Biсan project is among the company’s bigger developments. 

“It includes the sequel to Hartwood, a village in Meadowcrest. Federal Land still has a significant land bank in Biсan and Sta. Rosa,” he added. 

Last month, Federal Land and unit Horizon Land Property Development Corp. sold their combined 52% stake in Crown Central Properties to Crown Equities, Inc. for P73.48 million. 

Crown Equities acquired 62.5 million common shares from Federal Land valued at P68.12 million, and 5 million shares from Horizon Land worth P5.37 million. The board approved the acquisition on Dec. 16, and the deal remains subject to closing conditions. 

After the transaction, Crown Equities now owns 100% of Crown Central Properties, which develops residential and commercial projects. 

Crown Central was originally established in 1996 as a joint venture between Crown Equities and Solid Share Holdings — now Federal Land — to develop Palma Real Residential Estates in Biсan, Laguna. 

In 2003, it entered a memorandum of agreement with Sta. Lucia Realty and Development, under which Crown Central contributed land and initial improvements while Sta. Lucia completed the subdivision. 

Federal Land is a unit of GT Capital Holdings, Inc., a diversified group with interests in automotive, banking and real estate. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno

Why AI could make human jazz popular again

ORIGINAL PHOTOS FROM FREEPIK

By Jonathan Levin

AS A MUSICIAN and music-lover, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution terrifies me in many ways. AI apps such as Suno have already shown extraordinary potential to generate catchy and professionally produced music in certain genres. So it isn’t hard to imagine a world in which, for example, session musicians, jingle writers and purveyors of educational music for kids could soon lose their livelihoods to machines.

At the same time, I’m fairly optimistic that jazz — one of the most commercially underappreciated of all the musical styles, and the one closest to my heart — will survive and thrive in the new AI ecosystem. A 2024 year-end music report by Luminate ranked jazz 10th out of 11 “selected top genres” in the US, where it was nestled between classical and children’s music and commands less than 1% of total on-demand streams.

AI might be the key to improving on those abysmal numbers by highlighting what I call the “jazz model”: a way of making music that puts live, verifiably human performance at the center. And that model may point to a path of survival for other human artists looking to carve out a niche in our AI future.

To see why, it helps to look at what generative AI actually does well — and what it struggles with. It can mine vast troves of patternistic text, images, audio and video, then turn it into something you might want to consume. That works quite well, for instance, for pop and rock music, in which songs tend to clock in at around 3 to 4 minutes and follow the predictable pattern “verse-chorus-verse-chorus-bridge-chorus-end.”

But great jazz has two things that help set it apart. First, it is often harmonically groundbreaking (Miles Davis’ Kind of Blue, which introduced the world to modal jazz; John Coltrane’s Giant Steps, which cycles through mind-boggling key changes). Second, the genre experiments with novel song forms (Ornette Coleman’s Free Jazz: a Collective Improvisation). More than a century after the birth of jazz, my favorite contemporary players — including the guitarists Julian Lage and Kurt Rosenwinkel — continue to push the boundaries of timbre and harmony.

I’ve tried to test AI’s ability to replicate the depth of the sound and have been disappointed in the output. Suno prompts such as “create an instrumental jazz recording that pushes boundaries of form and harmony; experiment with dissonance and key changes” result in something I might play on my stereo at a polite holiday party with extended family. But there wasn’t anything novel or boundary-pushing about it, nor did it hit me on an emotional level.

Obviously, it’s premature to say that the technology won’t ever be able to create good jazz. Yet even if that happens, it’s likely that we’ll start to distinguish more sharply between craft — polished, repeatable style — and art, which we’ll reserve for creative work that is visibly, even vulnerably, human. A recent Pew Research Center report on how US adults viewed AI found that 53% of people thought the technology would worsen the ability to think creatively, which suggests many will be looking for ways to believe that creativity still exists.

What genre can do that better than jazz? Imagine piling into clubs like the Village Vanguard, where we can sit so close as to watch the performers sweat and where each performance is improvised, unique and imperfect. In that moment, one can marvel at the way human lungs produce expressive trumpet solos and the human fingers sliding up and down the upright bass. Virtuosos will be celebrated, much as great athletes are, as living celebrations of what we can accomplish with hard work, even without machines.

I suspect similar dynamics will extend to other art forms as well. AI will excel at making pastiche — knocking out competent genre fiction, portraits, and decorative sculpture. But the work we prize the most will be the avant-garde, the risky and idiosyncratic, and there will be greater demand for methods to authenticate that it was produced by human hands. Even creators whose art isn’t traditionally performance-based may have to show their process, perhaps by livestreaming from their studios or sharing unedited drafts, precisely so audiences can experience and reward the distinctively human labor behind the finished piece.

Long before I became a markets and Fed columnist (my day job for this publication), my first dream was to become a jazz guitarist. Seeing how hard it was for working players to earn more than a modest middle-class income eventually pushed me toward another career, but I’ve never stopped cheering for the people who stayed in the music.

It’s been nearly a century since jazz dominated popular music and some six decades since the massive hit albums of Davis, Coltrane, Dave Brubeck and others. Yet, as scary as AI is for musicians on the whole, I’d love to believe that the upheaval will finally bring about a renewed appreciation for the jazz performers that I hold so dear — a group of artists that the world has long taken for granted. — Bloomberg Opinion

Buckle up for a volatile year of Trump-Xi, Taiwan and Kim

TAIWAN’s flag is lowered during a daily ceremony as China conducts “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan, in Taipei, Taiwan, Dec. 30, 2025. — REUTERS/ANN WANG

By Karishma Vaswani

THIS is the season when columnists turn to prophecy, and then congratulate themselves a year later for getting some of it right. I’m afraid I’m about to join the club. 

As I predicted at the end of 2024, Asia in 2025 revolved around three main forces: the blossoming bromance between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, rising pressure on Taiwan, and a newly emboldened Kim Jong Un drawing closer to both Moscow and Beijing.

These dynamics will only get more obvious in 2026. The region is heading into an increasingly precarious year, with deepening tensions that will have a cascading effect on all of us.

TRUMP-XI BROMANCE COULD GO SOUR
On the surface, Trump and Xi appear to have found a new warmth — but it’s fragile. Xi was the winner of the trade war in 2025, which means Trump is going into this next year on the back foot. That won’t be lost in Washington, no matter how loud the bluster.

While the rapprochement has been welcomed by markets, a lot could go wrong. They will have the opportunity to meet as many as four times in 2026, providing multiple occasions for relations to head south.

And even if they don’t, they’ll likely remain tense, according to a 2026 forecast for US-China relations from the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. Almost three-quarters of respondents, comprising China experts and observers, see relations deteriorating across the board, from military and trade ties to technology.

That’s despite Trump’s most recent decision to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced chips to China, watering down years of national security safeguards. Washington says Nvidia’s top products will still be restricted, but the move gives Beijing access to semiconductors at least a generation ahead of its best technology.

CHINA-JAPAN RELATIONS
Tokyo has become more vocal about the link between its own security and stability in the Taiwan Strait, a position Beijing views as provocative. The Chinese leader will see how much he can push Trump on Taiwan, the self-governed democratic island Beijing claims as its own. That will make Taipei more vulnerable.

TAIWAN WILL FEEL THE HEAT EVEN MORE
President Lai Ching-te has his work cut out. He’ll need to navigate a politically gridlocked legislature while trying to pass a $40-billion supplementary defense budget aimed at modernizing the military and strengthening deterrence to defend against the rising threat from China. The island has already pledged to lift defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2030, up from over 3%. But more money alone may not be enough. 

US intelligence sources believe that Xi wants the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be capable of an invasion by 2027. However, many military strategists suggest a full-scale invasion then is unlikely, as China’s economy grapples with a slowdown and the PLA reels from corruption probes and purges. They point to quarantine or blockade scenarios instead. 

Beijing, which has vowed to take control of Taiwan through peaceful means but has refused to rule out doing so by using force, has ramped up military and political pressure in recent years to assert its claims.

The PLA conducted a second day of live-fire military drills to Taiwan’s north Tuesday, while China’s gray-zone tactics — warplanes crossing the median line, naval patrols circling the island, cyber and information warfare — are now near-daily events. These will almost certainly continue in 2026. 

KIM GETTING MORE CONFIDENT
North Korea is among the most serious risks on Asia’s security landscape. A 2025 briefing from the US Defense Intelligence Agency notes that Pyongyang has now developed an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental US.

Kim has repeatedly rejected denuclearization negotiations since the most recent talks in 2019 with Trump broke down. The North Korean leader views nuclear weapons as a guarantor of his security and has no intention of renouncing them. He’s also being emboldened by his deepening ties with Russia and steady support from China, which is changing the calculus on the peninsula.

South Korean officials have hinted at the chance of a summit with the North in 2026, something unimaginable over a year ago. This gives Kim leverage he’s been looking for to potentially get sanctions relief, or extract tacit approval from the US that denuclearization has been a failure and that he can go ahead and continue with his nuclear weapons program. Expect more missile launches, diplomatic theater and other attempts to hijack the geopolitical agenda.

Asia in 2026 is not on the brink of war. But the region will be more volatile than it has been in recent memory. Buckle up.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Peso may trade in tight range to open the year amid holiday-thinned liquidity

COLLAGE OF BWORLD PHOTO AND FREEPIK

THE PESO could move within a limited range to open 2026 amid a lack of catalysts, with activity likely to be driven by positioning and entities keen to take advantage of bargains to secure their dollar requirements.

On Dec. 29, the last trading day for 2025, the local unit closed at P58.79 versus the greenback, depreciating by eight centavos from its P58.71 finish on Dec. 26, 2025.

Year on year, the peso depreciated by 94.5 centavos or by 1.61% from its P57.845 close at end-2024.

Philippine financial markets were closed on Dec. 30, Dec. 31, and Jan. 1 for Rizal Day and the New Year holidays.

The peso will likely continue to move sideways when the market reopens on Friday as players seek fresh leads, a trader said in a text message.

“There could still be some accumulated though residual seasonal increase in OFW (overseas Filipino workers) remittances and conversion to pesos to finance Yuletide- and New Year-related holiday spending, though offset by some bargain hunting by some importers and others with requirements for US dollars,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message. He expects the peso to move between P58.65 and P58.95 per dollar on Friday.

Meanwhile, the US dollar advanced on Wednesday, erasing earlier declines after a stronger-than-expected labor market reading, Reuters reported.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.27% to 98.50.

For the year 2025, the dollar was down more than 9%. — AMCS

Analysts weigh impact of stock exchange’s one-share trading rule

REUTERS

By Alexandria Grace C. Magno

THE Philippine Stock Exchange’s (PSE) proposal to adopt a one-share board lot and revise run-off and trading-at-last rules could broaden retail participation, though analysts warn the changes may also lead to fragmented liquidity, execution challenges and higher operating costs for brokers.

“In theory, allowing investors to buy a single share improves accessibility and aligns the PSE with global practices, especially as digital platforms attract younger, smaller-ticket investors,” Toby Allan C. Arce, head of sales trading at Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc., said in a Viber message.

“However, the trade-off is a higher risk of fragmented and choppy trading, as order books may become crowded with very small orders that add noise rather than depth,” he added.

In December, the PSE released proposed changes that would standardize the minimum lot size at one share for all listed securities, regardless of price. The move will effectively abolish the odd-lot market and lower the minimum capital required to buy any stock, as part of the exchange’s broader trading system upgrade.

Mr. Arce said overall participation might rise, but liquidity quality could initially deteriorate, particularly in thinly traded stocks where wider bid-ask spreads and sharper price movements are more likely.

“Much will depend on how brokers implement minimum order value policies and how quickly market participants adapt their order-routing and aggregation strategies,” he added.

Under the proposed amendments, the revised board lot will reduce the minimum investment for any security to its market price.

“The proposed board lot will allow investors to trade a single share of a security and effectively reduce the minimum investment for any security to its market price, making stock market investing more affordable and accessible to retail investors,” the PSE said.

China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said a uniform board lot would also shift all trades to the regular market, removing inefficiencies tied to odd-lot transactions.

“Trading participants are allowed to set a reasonable minimum order value, so the rule change is a win-win for both brokers and small investors,” he said in a Viber message.

By consolidating liquidity into the regular market, the proposal could eliminate price distortions and wide bid-ask spreads that typically characterize odd-lot trades, Mr. Colet said.

To address concerns from trading participants whose business models may not suit a one-share structure, the PSE said brokers could impose minimum order values when accepting client orders. This provision is meant to offset higher processing costs from handling many small-value trades, especially for firms focused on institutional clients.

The exchange said any minimum order value must be implemented without exceeding commission limits under existing laws and regulations.

Mr. Arce noted that while the change could help attract first-time investors and incremental retail activity, it is not a complete solution to boosting market participation.

He noted that if brokers set minimum order values too high, accessibility gains could be diluted, while setting them too low might create operational inefficiencies and weaker per-trade economics.

“Over time, the reform could shift retail behavior toward more frequent but smaller trades, which may boost headline trade counts but not necessarily value turnover,” Mr. Arce said.

BDO Securities also said it does not expect major issues from the proposed changes, particularly in terms of retail participation, noting that removing odd lots could boost transaction volumes without lifting peso turnover value.

“Overall, the Philippine stock market has not been performing well, which has led retail investors to other types of investments outside the PSE,” it said.

It added that institutional clients generally view odd-lot trades as immaterial, but brokers will need to update systems to support the framework. These upgrades “will entail added costs, which will vary from broker to broker.”

The board lot proposal coincides with the PSE’s migration to Nasdaq Eqlipse Trading. The exchange said it completed a detailed gap analysis comparing Nasdaq Eqlipse Trading with PSEtrade XTS across operational, functional and regulatory requirements.

One identified gap involves trading during the run-off or trading-at-last period. Under PSEtrade XTS, incoming orders are rejected if the counterparty order price is more favorable than the established closing price.

The PSE noted that under Nasdaq Eqlipse Trading, orders priced at the closing price will be accepted and matched at that level, even if existing orders are priced more favorably. This lets more trades go through at the close, without disadvantaging investors whose orders are executed at the closing price.

Mr. Arce said the combined impact of broker-level minimum order values and revised run-off trading rules could complicate execution for institutional and end-of-day rebalancing trades.

“In the medium term, the success of these reforms will hinge on calibration — how minimum order values are set, how brokers adapt execution models and how effectively the PSE balances inclusivity with market efficiency as it transitions to a more technologically advanced trading environment,” he said.

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