Home Blog Page 4477

Lakers woes

The Lakers had a golden opportunity to win their match the other day, and they flubbed it. Up by three with 11.1 ticks remaining in regulation, all they had to do was defend against the three-point shot to seal the outcome. And the clincher is that they could have done it any which way. Coming off a timeout, they could have aimed to double-team Mavericks top dog Luka Doncic and forced him to give up the ball. They could have tapped Russell Westbrook, who had success against him throughout the set-to, to defend him anew. Or they could have employed a sound strategy by fouling in the penalty, potentially giving up just two points from the charity stripe. They did none of those things, and the result was a loss arguably of their own making.

In the aftermath of the double-overtime setback at home, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham owned up to the mistake. Why he had Dennis Schroder (standing a mere six feet) guard Doncic (some seven inches taller) in single coverage, only he knows. What happened next was certainly predictable. Doncic took all of five seconds to dribble to the right spot and take a stepback trey that found nothing but net. It looked like a practice shot, really, with the All-Star once again living up to billing. And even as Troy Brown Jr. appeared to have been mugged while taking a shot from beyond the arc in the next play, their fate was already sealed.

Significantly, the National Basketball Association’s Last Two Minute Report cleared the referees of any wrongdoing in supposedly failing to whistle the Mavericks’ Tim Hardaway Jr. for a foul; “any ‘high-five’ contact,” the review noted, “is considered incidental.” It likewise bears pointing out that the men in gray made seven errant calls in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter and two extra periods, including one that should have put the Lakers’ LeBron James on the line with the score tied and 2.9 seconds left in the first overtime. Still, the stats don’t lie; the purple and gold had 10 more free throws and were called for eight less fouls.

The bottom line is what it is, and can be fairly contended as consistent with pre-contest predictions. Then again, there can be no going around the wasted chance. Perhaps the scores would not have been close had James not played atrociously; he made just nine of 28 field-goal attempts, a certified downer at any time, and especially in a humdinger. Meanwhile, Doncic proved to be as advertised: a big-time player hitting a big-time shot while in the midst of a 35-14-13 triple-double. It’s why the Lakers are two spots out of last place in the West, and why their definition of success is making the play-in tournament for a likely one-and-done appearance.

 

Anthony L. Cuaycong has been writing Courtside since BusinessWorld introduced a Sports section in 1994. He is a consultant on strategic planning, operations and human resources management, corporate communications, and business development.

The 50-year ‘disease’ in Philippine agriculture – Can President BBM put an end to it?

PHILIPPINE STAR/MICAHEL VARCAS

We are all wondering why our agriculture sector has failed us, why we have become more food insecure as years passed. Red onions recently have been more expensive than beef or chicken. According to a news report, the former costs about P550 per kilo, while the latter about P485 a kilo.

High food prices may just be a fluke, as the farming sector goes through the ravages of extreme weather, losing productivity in the process. But this unfavorable situation has been with us through the years. Agriculture growth has gradually tanked in the past half a century, so much so that its record has become an insignificant statistic in the country’s gross domestic product accounting.

Way back in the 1960s and 1970s, the Philippines was grouped with the major food exporters of the world, not just because of our coconut oil, but also because we were relatively successful in fruit exports. With India, we led the green revolution in the 1970s. IRRI, the premier rice research institution of the world, is in Los Baños. But through the years, we have become net food importers, and high food prices appear to be a new normal.

Even without the WTO (World Trade Organization) farm trade liberalization, the Philippines would have to increasingly rely on foreign food supplies. Population growth and food requirements have remained high, but food productivity has plummeted. The government has invested more money into the farming sector to make it more productive and competitive, but somehow those investments did not bear the good fruit that we expected to secure our food requirements.

We made the wrong turn in 1972, when Ferdinand Marcos, Sr., through Presidential Decree No. 27, ordered the purchase of farm lands in excess of seven hectares to be distributed to individual tenants. Before that, earlier leaders had their own brands of land reform. Diosdado Macapagal in 1963 made share tenancy illegal and institutionalized the leasehold system. In 1955, Ramon Magsaysay gave tenants security of tenure. Manuel Roxas ordered a 70-30% sharing arrangement in favor of tenants.

Compulsory acquisition of farm lands to be distributed to tenants had been ordered even before Marcos Sr., but the retention limits were just too high to disturb most of the haciendas of the country then. Magsaysay and Macapagal set their retention limits of farm lands at 200 hectares and 75 hectares, respectively.

Marcos Sr.’s seven-hectare farm land ownership ceiling successfully broke down the large haciendas in Central Luzon, but not in other parts of the country where landed elite and his political allies were numerous. His program distributed only 20% of rice and corn land, and by 1988 only 6% of all agricultural households had received certificates of land transfers.

The government of Corazon Aquino in 1988 passed the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law. Under it, the retention limit was further reduced to 5 hectares. Her government’s more important mistake was that it set an unrealistic goal of redistributing all farm lands, not just rice and corn as in Marcos Sr.’s, which compelled the government to implement the program in phases. That has deprived the farm sector of opportunities for scale economies and private sector investments due to the uncertainty engendered by the program.

It is 50 years now since Marcos Sr. broke down our farm lands to economically inefficient sizes, an idea made worse by Corazon Aquino. Other leaders before him appeared to merely paid lip service to farm land redistribution.

Social injustice in agriculture is recognized to be a serious problem in our society, so much so that our leaders since we became independent after the second world war had tried to solve this problem. Even before that, during the first Philippine Republic, Emilio Aguinaldo intended to seize friar lands to correct the injustice done to Filipino farmers by the Spanish encomienderos. His government did not last long enough to realize that plan.

In the Commonwealth period, Manuel Quezon planned to purchase and lease haciendas to be sold or leased to the tenants. Like Aquinaldo’s, that plan remained unimplemented. After the second world war, the push to break down large haciendas to be given to tenants remained a priority, although before Marcos Sr., one may say his predecessors merely showed off at they were doing something to correct the social injustice.

It was during Marcos Sr.’s administration, followed by Corazon Aquino’s, that fragmentation of farm lands got institutionalized. Reluctant as he was, Macapagal stopped at replacing the share tenancy with the leasehold system, and did not go into farm land redistribution. In his address just before he signed his land reform program into law, he said “The failure of past attempts at land reform was always a failure of determination: they tried to alleviate the pains, the evils, the injustices of the share-tenancy system, rather than resolutely attacking the system itself. The result is that while some of the edges of the problem have been treated with some success, the disease remains as formidable and as threatening as ever.”

Those words have underscored our common quest of correcting the social injustice. But somehow in their respective efforts of finding a solution to this problem, they created another and more serious one — they robbed the agriculture sector of its innate capability to produce. With unrealistic retention limits, private sector investors are not rushing in to make the sector more productive. The farm business has lost its value, so much so that farm lands are rapidly getting converted into non-agricultural uses. Children of farmers do not want to be in the farming business, pushing up the average age of our farmers.

In the literature, share tenancy is just one of many ways that agriculture can be organized. Like Macapagal, we have mistakenly called it a “disease” in the farming sector. It is a rural institution, and, as economists describe it, share tenancy can be a viable contract in light of the constraints of farming. Another view in support of farm land fragmentation is the idea that smaller farms are more productive. That statistical inverse relationship between productivity and farm sizes had been shown to be farcical.

There are other ways of organizing agriculture. We don’t have to return to share tenancy, especially now that we already fragmented the lands. The social injustice that our leaders have worked to correct cannot be righted with just a mere land redistribution. In the various versions of land reform in our country, the farmer beneficiaries were promised government support to make them productive and increase their family incomes. Our farmer beneficiaries have remained poor.

It is about time that private sector investors go into farming. One such model is to organize farmer beneficiaries to contract with private investors and form agricultural venture agreements (AVAs). What is important is we come up with a business model that allows the sector to capture scale economies, to realize an even application of technology, and facilitate access to product and credit markets.

The way to move forward from where we are now is simply to remove the retention limit in the current agrarian reform law. In the House of Representatives, a proposed law on debt condonation in favor of farmer beneficiaries still retains a retention limit, but increases it to 25 hectares. That is a good start. However, the Senate can introduce a better version of this bill by lifting altogether the retention limit.

I have two reasons why I prefer a more liberal version of correcting the “disease” in agriculture. I remember hearing from officials at the Department of Agriculture that a businessman was looking for 2,000 hectares that he could use to start a farming business. Investments like that could not materialize legally if the law has a limit on ownership.

My other reason is that organizing AVAs can be costly. If private investors have to negotiate with farmer beneficiaries to invest in agriculture, the law can facilitate that by lifting any retention limit. I recall former Agrarian Reform Secretary Gil delos Reyes saying that AVAs are difficult to form. If there remains a retention limit of 25 hectares in the proposed law, the provision could push private investors, who find a larger farm size as optimal, out from agriculture.

It is 50 years now since the “disease of fragmentation” was institutionalized by Marcos Sr. Can Marcos Jr. correct this problem?

 

Ramon L. Clarete is a professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics.

10 years since the signing of the sin tax law

On Dec. 6, 2022, the Department of Health (DoH), the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), and the World Health Organization (WHO) published the results of the 2021 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS).

The GATS, conducted every six years, is the global standard for monitoring the use of tobacco, the substance that remains the leading cause of preventable death around the world. The GATS is a nationally representative survey involving men and women aged 15 and older; in the Philippines’ 2021 GATS, the DoH and PSA selected 20,671 households and 18,708 individuals, with a response rate of around 97%.

The results showed an astounding drop in smoking prevalence. The number of current tobacco users dropped from 29.7% of the population, or 17.3 million Filipinos in 2009, to 23.8% or 16.6 million Filipinos in 2015, and finally to 19.5% or 15.1 million Filipinos in 2021. In the last six years, 2.2 million Filipinos’ lives have been saved from the harmful health hazards brought about by smoking.

What explains this reduction in smoking prevalence? In the past decade, despite the deep pockets and vast network of what is dubbed the “strongest tobacco lobby in Asia,” the Philippine government has successfully adopted game-changing tobacco control policies and initiatives, which positioned the Philippines as a forerunner on the global tobacco control stage.

The most decisive factor that contributed to the reduction of smoking prevalence is the series of sin tax reform laws adopted between 2012 and 2020. The increasing tax rates during the last 10 years have made tobacco products less affordable. The WHO has described increasing tobacco tax and prices as “the least used, but most effective, tobacco control measures to help countries address development.”

The Philippine GATS 2021 showed that higher prices (which were brought about by higher taxes) led smokers to quitting: the percentage of current smokers who attempted to quit in the past 12 months because of high cigarette prices rose to 68% in 2021 from 55.5% in 2015. Thanks to the sin tax reforms, the average monthly expenditure for cigarettes among cigarette smokers (in pesos) almost doubled, from P678.4 in 2015, to P1,273.90 in 2021. The average cost of a pack of 20 manufactured cigarettes increased from P57.70 in 2015 to P107.80 in 2021.

According to the Southeast Asian Tobacco Control Alliance (SEATCA)’s 2021 Tobacco Tax Index1, the Philippines has the second-highest tax burden as a percentage of retail price (71.32%) in the ASEAN region, next to Thailand (78.60%).

The release of the 2021 GATS happens to coincide with the 10th anniversary of the ceremonial signing of the Sin Tax Reform Law (Republic Act 10351) of 2012. This transformative law reformed the old tobacco tax regime. The old tobacco tax regime led to inefficiency and gaming, and Philippine cigarette prices were among the lowest in Asia.

Prior to Republic Act (RA) 10351, the excise tax rates on cigarettes were fixed at old rates based on 1996 prices for legacy brands, stifling competition. RA 10351 shifted the complicated, multi-tiered system to a unitary tax for all brands of tobacco products, regardless of net retail price, to simplify tax administration and to discourage price-sensitive smokers from switching to a cheaper brand. It also imposed a significant increase on excise tax rates for tobacco products, earmarked incremental revenues for health programs including universal health care, and earmarked revenues to support the livelihood of tobacco farmers.

The Sin Tax Reform Law was not just a one-off; its success paved the way for another wave of successful tobacco tax policies passed in 2017, 2019, and 2020. Since 2012, sin taxes have raised funds for our health budget and facilitated the enrollment of indigent Filipinos in our National Health Insurance Program. On average, about half of the total Department of Health budget in the past years was sourced from the incremental excise tax revenues on sin products. Earmarked revenues from sin taxes made up 54% of the 2020 budget for DoH-Office of the Secretary/PhilHealth.

While the sin tax law has succeeded in hitting its revenue and health objectives, as long as Filipinos are smoking, the fight for higher prices of tobacco products continues. In accordance with RA11346, excise tax rates have reached P60 this year. In 2024, however, the only increase will be the automatic 5% adjustment to inflation. Given the current high inflation (5.8% in 2022), the rates must be hiked further to prevent the value of the tax rate being eroded.

Further, we face a large fiscal deficit, as the increase in spending and borrowing during the pandemic have narrowed our fiscal space. A downgrade in our credit rating could happen unless we find sustainable and substantial sources of government revenue.

Our health system also hangs in the balance, as we have yet to implement Universal Health Care across the country, with a funding gap of at least P163 billion, according to the DoH’s Medium Term Expenditure Program (MTEP).

Policies like excise taxes could possibly curb the rising trend in the use of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) among the youth. GATS 2021 showed that the highest e-cigarette use is among those in the 15- to 24-year-old age bracket.

Our call is for the Executive to adopt sin taxes as a legislative priority, as it is incumbent on them to protect the health of our people, especially young Filipinos, from harmful products such as tobacco. We laud Representative Joey Salceda for filing House Bill 5532, which raises taxes on e-cigarettes and HTPs and introduces new taxes on vaping devices. We call on our leaders in Congress to support this measure.

The proof of the effectiveness of sin taxes is here for us to witness. The data for smoking prevalence, revenues, and health budget among other things, show that sin taxes are efficient and cost-effective, deter smoking, save lives, and relieve our health system of the burden of tobacco-related diseases.

Thus, we have every reason to celebrate the 10 years of the Sin Tax Law. We thank all the stakeholders, and we specially mention the Department of Finance and the Department of Health, and the Representatives and Senators who sponsored the different RAs to make the successive increases in sin taxes serve society’s health and economy.

 

Pia Rodrigo leads the health policy team of Action for Economic Reforms.

How anti-vaccine misinformation hampers the conversation about genuine vaccine injuries

HAKAN NURAL-UNSPLASH

In the United Kingdom, MP Andrew Bridgen was suspended from the Conservative party on Jan. 11 for persistent misinformation about COVID vaccines, including numerous false claims around their safety. The final straw appears to have been his comments comparing the vaccination program to the Holocaust.

With more than 13 billion doses administered to date, we know COVID vaccines are overwhelmingly safe, effective, and a vital tool that must continue to underpin the pandemic response.

In very rare cases though, vaccines can be linked to serious injuries and even death. Vaccine injuries (also often called adverse events) are a difficult area in which to carry out research or advocacy, partly because anti-vaccine communities persistently muddy the waters with misinformation and abuse. This does a disservice to those who have a genuine vaccine injury.

In the UK, severe adverse events are tracked and documented by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS has reported that up to November 2022, there had been 50 deaths in England where a COVID vaccine was the underlying cause, and one in Wales.

Adverse events seen with the COVID vaccines include myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and thrombosis (blood clots).

Cases of vaccine-associated thrombosis are rare, occurring in around one in 50,000 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine. Some of these thrombosis cases can be serious. The mRNA vaccines, which are based on a different vaccine technology to the AstraZeneca vaccine, are now typically used in the UK, although the AstraZeneca vaccine does continue to be used around the world.

The risk of myocarditis is slightly elevated in young males after the mRNA vaccines (from Pfizer and Moderna). These cases are usually mild and patients recover well.

However, there are significant risks related to both these conditions with a COVID infection. One study of 43 million people concluded that the risk of myocarditis is greater after a COVID infection than after vaccination. Multiple studies have highlighted how the risk of thrombosis is increased even after mild COVID infections.

Vaccine injuries are very unfortunate, and tragic when a life is lost. But evidence shows the benefits of vaccination continue to greatly outweigh the risks.

We repeatedly see the linking of celebrity deaths or injuries to COVID vaccines, without any evidence. A recent example is Damar Hamlin, the American footballer who collapsed on the pitch during a game. There’s no evidence that his injuries (nor those of other young athletes) were caused by a COVID vaccine.

Returning briefly to Bridgen’s Holocaust comparison, this is not a new tactic. Inflammatory rhetoric is common in some anti-vaccine communities. Global health experts have highlighted the racist abuse they receive when providing informed advocacy about the public health benefits of immunization. This can make vaccine advocacy a very difficult and unpleasant place to tread.

Most of us line up for our COVID jabs, or take our children for their routine immunizations, and do so in good faith. Confidence in the immunization programs is vital. Transparency and informed discussions about risk of any vaccine injury is an important part of this.

And yet, because of the presence of misinformation, inflammatory comments and occasionally outright abuse, it’s hard to openly talk about those (small) risks. This is a shame, since vaccine injuries are a hugely important area.

For example, when I was recently giving a public talk on vaccination, a gentleman in the audience reported how he had suffered a severe adverse event soon after his second AstraZeneca jab. From his comments, it sounded very plausible that he may indeed have experienced a vaccine injury.

I intended to follow this up in the Q&A section of my talk. Alas, a few other attendees distracted the discussion with comments promoting various anti-vaccine tropes, and the moment was lost.

Many countries, including the UK, have a compensation scheme for people who sustain an injury that’s likely to be attributable to a vaccination. I asked this gentleman whether he had been able to access the UK compensation program. He suggested he had been pointed towards it, but found it difficult to access and understand.

An article published in the British Medical Journal in June 2022 reported the UK government’s vaccine damage payment scheme had made “a handful” of payments for injuries associated with the COVID vaccine, with cases taking many months to process. This process should be quicker and easier to access.

It’s difficult to quantify to what degree misinformation and anti-vaccine sentiment are impeding the experience of seeking help for people with a vaccine injury. But Rachel Schraer, a BBC reporter covering health and misinformation, points out in relation to the Bridgen case: “It’s something more than one genuinely vaccine-injured person has told me is further hurting their ability to get help.”

It’s estimated that the COVID vaccination program had saved 19.8 million lives globally by December 2021. Continued public health benefit partly relies on confidence in the vaccines.

Compensation programs are important to underpin this confidence, and should be transparent and straightforward. But at the same time, the misinformation and inflammatory rhetoric from the anti-vaccine community is hindering the very people they claim to be advocating for.

 

Michael Head is a Senior Research Fellow in Global Health at the University of Southampton. He has previously received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Department for International Development. He has not received funding from the pharmaceutical sector.

Exxon made shockingly accurate climate forecasts decades ago

EXXON really did know.

The oil company for decades denied the impact that fossil fuels were having on the climate — even as its scientists produced stunningly accurate forecasts of just how much and how quickly carbon emissions were warming the planet. A new study released Thursday examining the company’s climate findings over a 25-year stretch makes that clearer than ever.

Since 2015, when a series of articles first exposed how Exxon Mobil Corp.’s in-house research contradicted its public statements, climate activists started waving signs reading, “Exxon Knew.” The company continues to resist that to this day, telling the New York Times “those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions.”

With the new data we have from researchers at Harvard and the University of Potsdam, it is impossible to draw any other conclusion. There is a chart from the new study, comparing a dozen different Exxon forecasts of fossil fuel-induced global warming with actual temperature change, in red. The foresight is uncanny.

Exxon studied carbon levels intensively at a time when public interest in global warming was just getting started. As Nathaniel Rich wrote in his book Losing Earth, when the political winds shifted against climate action in the early 1980s, Exxon shifted with them. For decades thereafter it denied its products were affecting the climate and cast doubt on models predicting a warming planet. All along, it turns out, its scientists were in perfect harmony with those models.

Exxon wasn’t alone. Other oil companies, coal companies, utilities, and automakers have been studying human-caused climate change for decades and coming to similar conclusions, the new study points out. Few contradicted Exxon publicly.

As my colleague Liam Denning has written, the oil industry’s short-term (in geological time, anyway) success at obscuring the truth about climate change has led to a longer-term, existential backlash. That image crisis has forced the industry to tack with the political winds again, though it still complains the energy transition is moving too rapidly. But the frantic pace wouldn’t have been necessary if the industry had only been honest about the problem earlier.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

China, HK resume high-speed rail link after 3 years of COVID curbs

HONG KONG/BEIJING — China resumed on Sunday high-speed rail services between Hong Kong and the mainland for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as it dismantles travel curbs after Beijing scrapped quarantine for arrivals a week earlier.

The re-opening comes amidst a massive wave of infections nationwide and a day after authorities said nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospital, following last month’s abrupt U-turn on “zero-COVID” policy in the wake of historic protests.

Despite the infections, some passengers voiced excitement and relief about being able to more easily return to their hometowns in time for the approaching Lunar New Year.

“The resumption of the high-speed railway has made it very convenient for us and has brought us closer to home,” said Mang Lee, 33, who was among dozens going through border checks at Hong Kong’s West Kowloon station before boarding trains.

“For the past three years, due to the pandemic, it has not been easy to enter China in any way,” added Meng, originally from the southern city of Guangzhou. “I have not been able to go home for a long time.”

EASIER LUNAR NEW YEAR TRIPS
A surge in travel ahead of the holiday celebrations set to begin on Jan. 21, as hundreds of millions of people return home from cities to small towns and rural areas, has fueled worries about more infections.

Saturday’s updated death toll was a huge increase over previous figures, following global criticism of China’s coronavirus data. The move was welcomed by the World Health Organization, although the body called for more detailed data.

But the figure still falls short of the predictions of international health experts, who have said China could have more than a million COVID-related deaths this year.

Operations at West Kowloon station have been smooth, with a flow of about 1,400 passengers by 10 a.m., said Cheung Chi-keung, head of operator MTR Corp.’s cross-boundary operations.

Tickets for nearly all trains were sold out on Sunday, a display at the station showed, a Reuters witness said.

The re-opening will initially be just for short journeys, MTR chairman Rex Auyeung told reporters at the station.

Hong Kong’s transport secretary, Lam Sai-hung, said he could not confirm when long-haul journeys would resume, but that would be after talks with mainland authorities. — Reuters

Rate rises could add $8.6 trillion to global borrowing costs — S&P

PIXABAY

LONDON — Central bank rate rises could land global borrowers with $8.6 trillion in extra debt servicing costs in coming years, S&P Global estimated on Friday, warning of a slowdown in economic activity as a result.

Major central banks have delivered a record 2,700 basis points of rate hikes in 2022 to stamp out high inflation while concerns have been growing about higher borrowing costs sparking a global recession.

“Higher interest expenses are already straining less-creditworthy governments and corporates, and lower-income households,” S&P Global, a financial intelligence company that includes a debt ratings service, said in a report.

Businesses’ required returns on new projects were rising along with debt costs, S&P Global added, in a trend that would “dampen future business activity volumes”.

“Rising interest rates and slowing economies are making the debt burden heavier,” S&P Global added in the report launched ahead of next week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“To mitigate the risk of a financial crisis, trade-offs between spending and saving may be needed.”

S&P Global based its estimate of an $8.6 trillion extra interest bill by applying a three-percentage point rate increase to $300 trillion worth of global debt. Around 65% of the extra debt service cost would be paid on fixed-rate bonds and loans as they were refinanced “over time,” the report said.

It also projected that the global debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio — a marker of leverage risk in the financial system — could rise in a worst case scenario to 391% by 2030, from 349% in June 2022.

S&P Global is adding its voice to a chorus of warnings from policymakers and multilateral institutions about the impact of higher debt servicing costs on fragile economies and companies, as well as struggling households.

Last month, World Bank President David Malpass said at a Reuters conference that the world’s poorest countries now owed $62 billion in annual debt service costs to official creditors, an increase of 35% over the past year, sparking concerns about a disorderly default trend.

In September, the Vulnerable Group of 20 (V20), a group of 55 economies exposed to the fallout from climate change, forecast their debt interest bill would rise to a point where they would struggle to safeguard their populations from natural disasters. — Reuters

Indonesia deploys warship to track Chinese coast guard vessel

A man is seen behind an Indonesia’s national flag in Jakarta, Indonesia in this file photo dated April 7, 2019. — REUTERS

JAKARTA — Indonesia has deployed a warship to its North Natuna Sea to monitor a Chinese coast guard vessel that has been active in a resource-rich maritime area, the country’s naval chief said on Saturday of an area that both countries claim as their own.

Ship tracking data shows the vessel, CCG 5901, has been sailing in the Natuna Sea, particularly near the Tuna Bloc gas field and the Vietnamese Chim Sao oil and gas field since Dec. 30, the Indonesian Ocean Justice Initiative told Reuters.

A warship, maritime patrol plane and drone had been deployed to monitor the vessel, Laksamana Muhammad Ali, the chief of the Indonesian navy, told Reuters.

“The Chinese vessel has not conducted any suspicious activities,” he said. “However, we need to monitor it as it has been in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for some time.”

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Jakarta was not immediately available for comment.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives vessels navigation rights through an EEZ.

The activity comes after an EEZ agreement between Indonesia and Vietnam, and approval from Indonesia to develop the Tuna gas field in the Natuna Sea, with a total estimated investment of more than $3 billion up to the start of production.

In 2021 vessels from Indonesia and China shadowed each other for months near a submersible oil rig that had been performing well appraisals in the Tuna block.

At the time, China urged Indonesia to stop drilling, saying the activities were happening in its territory.

Southeast Asia’s biggest nation says that under UNCLOS, the southern end of the South China Sea is its exclusive economic zone, and named the area as the North Natuna Sea in 2017.

China rejects this, saying the maritime area is within its expansive territorial claim in the South China Sea marked by a U-shaped “nine-dash line,” a boundary the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague found to have no legal basis in 2016. — Reuters

Biden documents bungle seen as political black eye before 2024 launch

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — This week’s revelations that US President Joseph R. Biden stored classified documents in his Delaware home from his time as vice president has caused a political headache for him and the Democratic party, just as he approaches a difficult re-election bid.

Mr. Biden began 2023 buoyed by unexpectedly strong midterm election results for Democrats. Since then, inflation has fallen, and the opposition Republican Party appeared in such public disarray that it took days to elect a speaker of the House of Representatives.

The president, 80, was poised to ride that wave into an announcement that he will make another run for the White House, perhaps as soon as next month, after the State of the Union address on Feb. 7, sources told Reuters.

But Attorney General Merrick Garland’s naming of a special counsel on Thursday to probe the Biden administration’s document handling has neutralized Democrats’ ability to target former President Donald Trump, Republicans’ top 2024 candidate so far, over classified documents.

“It basically … is a huge gift to Trump,” said David Axelrod, a former political adviser to President Barack Obama. Mr. Axelrod said the latest developments were an “embarrassment” because Mr. Biden criticized his predecessor after the FBI found classified government documents during a court-ordered search of Mr. Trump’s Florida resort.

“He’s been on a huge run here. And he had a lot of momentum going, and this is a bump in the road,” Mr. Axelrod said.

After Mr. Biden aides found classified documents at his residence in Delaware, including some in his garage, and at a Washington think tank he was associated with, Mr. Biden’s counsel said on Saturday that he had found five additional pages with classified markings at the president’s home.

The White House has promised to cooperate with the Department of Justice investigation and says the documents were inadvertently misplaced.

It has declined to elaborate, citing the Justice Department probe.

In September Mr. Biden called Mr. Trump’s handling of classified documents “totally irresponsible.” The former president, responding to the latest developments on his Truth Social platform, questioned when Mr. Biden’s homes would be searched. Mr. Trump announced his own re-election bid last year.

Mr. Biden has pushed infrastructure and climate change legislation through Congress and led democratic nations’ united response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But he faces lackluster approval ratings and concerns about his age as he looks to 2024.

“This is a distraction for the White House right when they were starting to gain some momentum,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former spokesman for Republican President George W. Bush.

“It makes Biden look like a giant hypocrite,” Mr. Conant said. “Clearly Trump’s handling of classified materials was a lingering problem that Republicans had not had a good answer for until this week.”

While legal experts highlighted differences between the two cases — Mr. Trump refused to return documents, and about 100 marked classified were found at his home — a Democratic communications adviser, who declined to be named, said the issue would still pose questions for voters about Mr. Biden’s competence.

Mr. Axelrod said: “My guess is when this thing shakes out that it’s going to be less than it appears today, but right now it’s a huge pain.” — Reuters

Britain to send 14 of its main battle tanks, more weaponry to Ukraine

LONDON — Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office said late on Saturday that Britain would send 14 of its main battle tanks along with additional artillery support to Ukraine, disregarding criticism from the Russian Embassy in London.

A squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks will go into the country in the coming weeks and around 30 self-propelled AS90 guns, operated by five gunners, are expected to follow, the British prime minister’s office said in a statement.

The UK will also begin training Ukrainian forces to use the tanks and guns in the coming days.

“As the people of Ukraine approach their second year living under relentless Russian bombardment, the Prime Minister is dedicated to ensuring Ukraine wins this war,” a spokesperson for the prime minister said in a statement.

“Alongside his closest military advisors, he has analyzed the military picture, looked at the strategic impact of the UK’s support and identified a window where he thinks the UK and its allies can have maximum impact.”

The announcement follows a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier on Saturday during which, Mr. Sunak “outlined the UK’s ambition to intensify our support to Ukraine, including through the provision of Challenger 2 tanks and additional artillery systems.”

Mr. Sunak’s office said earlier this week that Britain would coordinate its support with allies after Germany, France and the United States all indicated last week they would provide armored vehicles to Ukraine.

The office also said that the defense minister would update the British parliament with details of the security support on Monday.

The Russian Embassy in London said the decision to send the tanks would drag out the confrontation, lead to more victims including civilians, and was evidence of “the increasingly obvious involvement of London in the conflict”.

“As for the Challenger 2 tanks, they are unlikely to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn the tide on the battlefield, but they will become a legitimate large target for the Russian artillery,” the embassy said, according to comments cited by the TASS news agency.

The Challenger 2 is a battle tank designed to attack other tanks, and has been in service with the British Army since 1994. It has been deployed in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Iraq, according to the army.

“The prime minister and President Zelensky welcomed other international commitments in this vein, including Poland’s offer to provide a company of Leopard tanks,” Mr. Sunak’s spokesperson said.

Mr. Zelensky, in his nightly video address published before the detailed British announcement, called the expected help “important” for Ukraine’s defense.

“It’s really what is needed,” Mr. Zelensky said. “And I believe that similar decisions will still be made by other partners — those who understand why such evil cannot be given a single chance.” — Reuters

Ayala Corp. seeks legal action against makers of fake app

AYALA Corp. is seeking legal action against the makers of a fake investment application circulating on social media channels.

The fake “Ayala Investment App” uses the Ayala Corp. logo and reposts content from Ayala’s official Facebook page and website, an advisory said.

“We are now working with internal and external partners to take down the app and identify its source, and subject the individuals behind this app to law enforcement and prosecutorial action,” said Catherine R. Bengzon, Ayala Corp. brand and reputation management head, in an e-mail to BusinessWorld.

“In addition, we have published a public notice across our digital channels. We are also sending cease and desist letters to known promoters of the app,” she added.

Ayala Corp. stocks can only be purchased via licensed stockbrokers accredited by the Philippine Stock Exchange.

“‘Investments’ in the Corporation or any of our business units and subsidiaries are not done through third-party apps and websites,” said Ms. Bengzon. — Patricia B. Mirasol

China’s trade tumbles sharply in Dec., clouds 2023 growth outlook

BEIJING — China’s exports shrank sharply in December as global demand cooled, highlighting risks to the country’s economic recovery this year, but a more modest decline in imports reinforced views that domestic demand will slowly recover in coming months.

While imports are expected to ride a wave of pent-up demand after China dropped its tough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) measures in December, its exports are seen weakening well into the new year as the global economy teeters on the brink of recession.

“The weak export growth highlights the importance of boosting domestic demand as the key driver for the economy in 2023,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, adding markets expect Beijing to announce more policies to support consumption.

Exports contracted 9.9% year-on-year in December, extending a 8.7% drop in November, though slightly beating expectations, customs data showed on Friday. The drop was the worst since February 2020.

Reflecting faltering world demand, outbound shipments to the United States shrank 19.5% in December, while those to the EU fell 17.5%, according to Reuters’ calculations based on the official data.

Despite the sharp falloff in shipments in the last few months, China’s total exports rose 7% in 2022 thanks to its strong trade with Southeast Asian nations as well as an export boom of new energy vehicles. Still, growth was a far cry from a 29.6% gain in 2021.

Imports fell 7.5% last month, moderating from a 10.6% decline in November and better than a forecast 9.8% decline.

China’s 2022 trade surplus hit an all-time peak of $877.6 billion, the highest since records started in 1950, compared with $670.4 billion in 2021.

DOMESTIC DEMAND KEY TO 2023 RECOVERY
Boosting domestic consumption will be vital to Beijing’s economic recovery plans, and there is lots of lost ground to recover — imports rose only 1.1% last year, down sharply from 30% growth in 2021.

China’s purchases of coal and copper shrank in December, as industrial activity slowed on a surge in COVID-19 infections.

Policymakers have pledged to increase support for the economy as they are eager to underpin growth and ease disruptions caused by the sudden end to COVID-19 curbs.

Measures to ease a crippling funding crunch in the property sector, in particular, could revive home sales and boost imports of industrial materials from iron ore to copper.

Lloyd Chan, senior economist at Oxford Economics, expects more support for property developers and households, but said net trade is still likely to be a drag on China’s growth this year.

“Any near-term lift is unlikely given weak domestic sentiment and the ongoing COVID surge.”

WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND COULD TEMPER ECONOMIC RECOVERY
China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday that slowing external demand and the rising risks of a global recession are posing the biggest pressures to the country’s trade stabilization, leaving “arduous tasks.”

An official factory activity survey showed a sub-index of new export orders has remained in contraction territory for 20 consecutive months.

But the ministry said major exporting provinces have reported seeing some improvement in getting new orders. After three years, Chinese authorities have finally removed anti-virus curbs that disrupted port logistics and shut down factories in key manufacturing hubs.

REBOUND
Analysts polled by Reuters expect China’s economic growth to rebound to 4.9% in 2023, before steadying in 2024, a Reuters poll showed.

The economy likely grew just 2.8% in 2022 amid widespread lockdowns, well below the official target of around 5.5%. Fourth quarter and 2022 gross domestic product data (GDP) data will be released on Jan. 17.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday she expected China to become a net contributor to the global economy by mid-2023, and urged Beijing to stay the course in reversing its earlier zero-COVID policy.

Analysts at the Bank of America expect China’s consumption to have a “faster and sharper” rebound than that seen in the rest of Asia.

But some manufacturers remain cautious about the outlook.

Jin Chaofeng, whose company in the east coast city of Hangzhou exports outdoor rattan furniture, said he has no market expansion or hiring plans for 2023.

“With the lifting of COVID curbs, domestic demand is expected to improve but not for exports…,” he said.

“With no signs of the ending of the Russia-Ukraine war or crucial improvement in China-US relations, this year’s exports may be worse than 2022,” Jin said, adding his company has been reducing inventories over recent months. — Reuters