Australian bank CEOs say Trump ‘tariff madness’ may drive up global inflation

March 18, 2025 | 1:03 pm

SYDNEY – A trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs may drive up global inflation, stoke market volatility and slow economic growth, the CEOs of two top Australian banks said on Tuesday, but added Australia was insulated from the disruption.

The heads of No. 1 retail lender Commonwealth Bank of Australia and No. 1 business lender National Australia Bank told a conference the new U.S. administration’s protectionist policies would likely strain the global economy in the medium term with higher costs and lack of certainty.

But Australia’s roughly $15 billion a year in exports to the U.S. was small compared to its overall export trade, so the country was better placed than Canada, which sells 85% of its exports to the U.S., the financial leaders added.

“There’s certainly risk to the downside, around slowing global growth,” CBA CEO Matt Comyn told the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney, adding U.S. tariffs would mean “inefficiencies in trade (and) therefore more inflation”.

CBA had reported a “pronounced uptick” in mortgage applications since the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates last month for the first time since November 2020 to 4.1%, Comyn’s head of retail banking Angus Sullivan told the conference earlier.

NAB CEO Andrew Irvine said the rate cut had been an “exhale of breath” in the economy, but “tariff madness” under Trump may lower the chance of further cuts this year. Currently NAB expects two 25-basis point cuts in 2025.

“We’re not an island,” Irvine told the conference. “If this tariff madness does happen, we could be at the end of (rate) reductions.” — Reuters

Eluvo and Lily of the Valley join forces to transform workplace wellness

March 18, 2025 | 11:00 am

In an era where employee well-being directly impacts business success, award-winning femtech brand Lily of the Valley and all-in-one female healthcare platform Eluvo Health, partner with NEO, and Femtech Association Asia to host a groundbreaking event: “Workplace Wellness Reimagined: Building Bridges to Better Health.” Set for the 18^th of March 2025, this innovative summit will equip business leaders with actionable strategies to create more inclusive, supportive work environments.

“The modern workplace must evolve beyond traditional wellness programs to address the full spectrum of employee health needs,” said Dr. Jaycy Violago-Olivarez, Founder & CEO of Eluvo Health, who will deliver the event’s keynote address. “This isn’t just about improving employee satisfaction — it’s about driving sustainable business performance.”

The Wellness Imperative: A Business Case

Recent research reveals the urgent need for workplace wellness reform:

Companies lose 33% of productivity due to presenteeism – employees physically present but underperforming due to health concerns
45% of women report missing work due to menstrual or menopause symptoms
50% of women experience increased stress levels, resulting in burnout and sleep disruptions
LGBTQIA+ employees in unsupportive environments are three times more likely to experience poor mental health outcomes

These statistics translate to tangible business costs through absenteeism, reduced productivity, and increased turnover.

From Insight to Action

Corporate leaders, HR executives, and wellness professionals will gain valuable insights through a carefully curated program:

Expert-Led Panels: Industry leaders will discuss implementing reproductive health policies, designing inclusive benefits packages, and creating effective stress management initiatives
Interactive Workshops: Hands-on sessions will provide practical tools for immediate workplace implementation
Innovation Showcase: Cutting-edge wellness solutions from leading providers will be demonstrated
Corporate Wellness Pledge: Participating organizations will commit to implementing sustainable wellness initiatives

“At Lily of the Valley, we’ve always believed that empowerment begins with addressing fundamental health needs,” says Camille Escudero, Founder of Lily of the Valley. “This partnership with Eluvo allows us to extend our mission beyond our products and into corporate structures that impact millions of lives daily.”

To learn more about this event, follow Lily of the Valley & Eluvo Health on LinkedIn.

About the Organizers

Lily of the Valley is an award-winning female-led local underwear brand dedicated to comfort, inclusivity, and empowerment. — https://www.mylilyofthevalley.com.

Eluvo Health — all-in-one healthcare provider for women’s health through an integrated digital and physical healthcare system — https://eluvohealth.com.

NEO — the owner, developer, and manager of the Philippines’ top certified green buildings located in the vibrant business and lifestyle district Bonifacio Global City — https://www.neooffice.ph

FemTech Association Asia — the region’s first and largest specialist advisory and industry network for founders, investors, corporates and ecosystem contributors with a core focus on improving women’s health through technology solutions — https://www.femtechassociation.com.

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What is the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 that Trump wants to use in deportations?

March 18, 2025 | 10:43 am

U.S. President Donald Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act in a proclamation made public on Saturday as part of his pledge to deport millions of people who are in the country illegally.

Below is a look at the act and how it has been used in the past.

WHAT IS THE ACT?
The Alien Enemies Act was enacted in 1798 to combat spying and sabotage during tensions with France. It authorizes the president to deport, detain or place restrictions on individuals whose primary allegiance is to a foreign power and who might pose a national security risk in wartime.

The act states it can be invoked “whenever there is a declared war” or “any invasion or predatory incursion” that has been perpetrated, attempted or threatened against the United States by a foreign government.

The act requires the president to publicly proclaim the event that prompted the act to be invoked. The act remains in effect until the president terminates it.

HOW HAS THE ACT BEEN INVOKED?
The law was used in the War of 1812 between the United States and Britain and in both World Wars and was used to detain and deport individuals, as well as restrict their freedom.

President Woodrow Wilson used the act to bar citizens of enemies of the United States from possessing firearms and explosives, residing in certain areas and publishing certain materials, among other restrictions.

President Franklin Roosevelt used the act to justify internment camps for people of Japanese, German and Italian descent during World War Two. President Harry Truman continued to use the act until 1951, after hostilities had ceased in World War Two, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.

HOW DID TRUMP JUSTIFY INVOKING THE ACT
Mr. Trump said the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which the U.S. government has declared is a foreign terrorist organization, was “conducting irregular warfare and undertaking hostile actions against the United States” with the goal of destabilizing the nation.

He said in the proclamation that the group, which has been linked to kidnapping, extortion, organized crime and contract killings, infiltrated Venezuela’s government.

WHAT HAVE COURTS SAID ABOUT USE OF THE ACT?
Individuals have sued to challenge their detention or removal, but most of the cases have turned on questions of the person’s citizenship.

The act has been upheld as constitutional and the Supreme Court has said it can even be used after wartime.

In 1948, the Supreme Court ruled the government could deport Kurt Ludecke, a former Nazi who fell out with the party, escaped a concentration camp and came to the United States, even though the war with Germany was over. The court said it would have been impractical to deport him while the war was going on.

Some Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate reintroduced a bill in January that would repeal the Alien Enemies Act, pointing to its use in the internment of Americans and arguing it violates civil and individual rights.

WHO DECIDES IF THE U.S. HAS BEEN INVADED?
In addition to a declared war, the act can be invoked when there is an “invasion” or “predatory incursion.”

Courts have been asked what constitutes an invasion, although in cases unrelated to the Alien Enemies Act.

California brought a lawsuit against the federal government in the 1990s claiming it was failing to protect the state from an invasion of individuals crossing the southern border illegally.

The court decided that determining what constitutes an invasion was a political question for the other branches of government. The court also said that there was no manageable standard for determining when an influx of individuals rose to the level of an invasion.

Courts have also said an influx of individuals entering the country illegally was likely not considered an invasion based on the writings of the founding fathers, who understood the term to mean armed hostility by another state or foreign country. — Reuters

King Charles praying that visit to see Pope will go ahead

March 18, 2025 | 10:34 am

LONDON – Britain’s King Charles is still hoping to see Pope Francis during a state visit to the Vatican and Italy next month, a Buckingham Palace source said on Tuesday, more than a month after the pontiff went into hospital.

In February, the palace said Charles and his wife Queen Camilla would travel to Rome in April and the couple would meet the 88-year-old pope, but days later Francis was taken to hospital with a severe respiratory infection.

On Sunday, the Vatican released the first image of the pontiff since his February 14 admission, and said Francis was gradually improving, using less mechanical ventilation at night to help with breathing.

The royals’ three-day trip is set to begin on April 7, with the meeting with the pope scheduled for the following day. Royal officials expressed their “hopes and prayers that Pope Francis’ health will enable the visit to go ahead”, sentiments that Charles and Camilla shared, a palace source said.

Charles, 76, who is himself recovering from cancer, meaning his workload needs to be carefully managed, wrote privately to the pope when Francis was taken ill, the source said. The pair met during Charles’ visits to Rome in 2017 and 2019 before he became king.

As British monarch, Charles heads the Church of England which split from the Catholic Church in 1534. A palace spokesperson said his trip would symbolize a significant step forward in relations between the two, as well as marking celebrations for 2025 Catholic Holy Year.

Charles is slated to visit the Papal Basilica of St. Paul’s Outside the Walls, to which English kings had a particular link before the schism from Rome, and the royal couple are also due to visit the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel.

Charles and Camilla’s Italian agenda includes audiences with President Sergio Mattarella and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and an address to the joint houses of parliament, in a first for a British monarch.

The visit coincides with the 20th wedding anniversary of Charles and Camilla, who married on April 9, 2005. Their nuptials took place the day after the funeral of Pope John Paul II, which Charles attended as then heir to the throne. — Reuters

Fire Prevention Month: Protect your home and stay prepared with Palawan ProtekTODO

March 18, 2025 | 10:30 am

March is Fire Prevention Month in the Philippines, officially recognized under Presidential Proclamation No. 115-A. This nationwide initiative aims to raise awareness about fire safety. With fire incidents typically peaking during summer, this annual observance serves as an important reminder of the devastating impact of fires and the need for preventive measures to safeguard lives and property.

According to the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP), fire incidents increased from 16,387 cases in 2023 to 18,217 in 2024 — a whopping 10.6%. This underscores the need for stronger fire readiness efforts. Here are five measures to help you secure your loved ones:

Keep Electrical Systems in Check

Faulty wiring and overloaded outlets are among the leading causes of residential fires. Ensure electrical systems are well-maintained, avoid plugging too many devices into a single outlet, and replace damaged cords immediately.

Practice Safe Cooking Habits

Kitchen fires are among the most common household fire incidents. Never leave cooking unattended, keep flammable materials away from stoves, and ensure gas tanks are properly installed and maintained.

Store Flammable Materials Properly

Households and businesses should store flammable substances, such as gasoline, paint, and chemicals, in well-ventilated areas away from heat sources. Proper storage reduces the risk of accidental ignition and fire outbreaks. Additionally, never place curtains, papers, or clothes near stoves, heaters, or candles — small oversights can lead to major disasters.

Invest in a Fire Extinguisher

Equip your home or business with a fire extinguisher. This will allow you to respond quickly to small fires before they escalate into a full-blown disaster.

Get insurance to reduce the financial impact of a fire incident.

Unfortunately, incidents can still occur, and they can strip your family of your hard-earned assets and savings. This is why getting insured is important. Contrary to popular belief, insurance doesn’t have to be costly — going without it is what can be truly expensive.

Meijhen Maulanin, Brand Manager of Palawan Group of Companies’ microinsurance arm, ProtekTODO, emphasized: “Insurance, in general, is often underrated in our country. While some people recognize its value, many still overlook certain types of coverage. Most individuals tend to focus on health, life, and personal accident insurance, but they may be missing out on the crucial protection that fire cash assistance offers. Although less common, this type of coverage provides invaluable peace of mind in the event of the unexpected. This Fire Prevention Month, we encourage everyone not only to learn how to prevent fires but also to be prepared in case they occur.”

For only P99, Palawan ProtekTODO Fire 99 provides up to P30,000 in fire cash assistance and an accidental death benefit of up to P10,000, offering an affordable and reliable safety net for individuals and families.

Fire prevention starts with awareness, but true preparedness means having a safety net when the unexpected happens. While we take precautions to avoid fires, accidents can still happen — often when we least expect them. Get Palawan ProtekTODO Fire 99 today at any Palawan Pawnshop — Palawan Express Pera Padala branch, via the PalawanPay App, or through the official Palawan ProtekTODO stores on Lazada and Shopee.

ABOUT PALAWAN GROUP OF COMPANIES

The Palawan Group of Companies (PGC ) includes products and services such as Palawan Pawnshop, Palawan Express Pera Padala, Palawan ProtekTODO, Palawan Credit, and PalawanPay. A brand trusted by Filipinos for almost four decades, PGC is one of the fastest-growing financial institutions in the country. With its strength in remittance and pawning services, the company is the market leader in the industry and has over 70,000 branches, Pera Padala outlets, and PalawanPay Money Shops nationwide.

Palawan Group of Companies offers a wide range of services, including pawning, domestic and international remittances, microinsurance, bills payment, electronic mobile phone loading, cash-in and cash-out of e-wallets, money exchange, ATM withdrawal, and cash disbursements. Additionally, the company sells jewelry and gold bars, catering to customers looking to invest in valuable assets.

Palawan Group of Companies introduced PalawanPay, an e-wallet app that allows users to send and receive remittances anytime, anywhere. PalawanPay is the company’s latest digital solution, offering faster, safer, and more convenient transactions. In addition to remittances, the app provides access to other financial services, including bills payments, mobile load top-ups, and scan-to-pay QR Ph codes. The app also features integrated functionality for pawn renewal, purchasing jewelry and gold items, ProtekTODO personal insurance, and claiming international remittances.

Palawan Group of Companies is supervised by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

For more information, go to Palawan Pawnshop and PalawanPay websites.

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Vietnam developer proposes 15-year rescue for bank at heart of giant fraud, documents show

March 18, 2025 | 10:24 am

Vietnam Dong Note-currency — A VIETNAM DONG note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017. — REUTERS

HANOI – The bank at the center of Vietnam’s biggest financial fraud has received a central bank bailout amounting 5% of the nation’s 2024 economic output, which a local white knight hopes to repay in 15 years, documents seen by Reuters show.

The nearly $26 billion pumped into Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank (SCB) since a 2022 run on the bank, triggered by the arrest of the real estate tycoon who effectively controlled SCB, highlights Vietnam’s struggles to oversee its banks and contain potential sectoral risk.

The Southeast Asian nation is scrambling domestically while its export-driven economy faces the risks of a global trade war as President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

SCB remains “completely dependent on special loans” from the State Bank of Vietnam to cover deposit withdrawals, and the central bank’s lending would reach 657 trillion dong ($25.8 billion) in the first year of restructuring, according to the rescue roadmap prepared by Sun Group, the developer mandated by the central bank in November 2023 to help SCB.

The lender, under Sun Group ownership, would start repaying the central bank in the 14th year of the rescue plan, subject to market conditions, under the base scenario of the 222-page plan, which has not been reported previously.

Under this scenario, SCB would fully repay the central bank within 15 years of the approval of the restructuring, which Sun Group hopes to obtain as early as the start of next month.

Reuters could not determine whether Sun Group’s plan, dated February 17, has the support of Vietnam’s government and ruling Communist party or whether it will be approved under the developer’s timeline.

Sun Group, SCB, the central bank and the finance ministry did not respond to email and phone requests for comment.

DEPOSITS PLUNGE, LOSSES SOAR
The scandal broke in October 2022 with the arrest of businesswoman Truong My Lan, who built a real estate empire that prosecutors say was funded for a decade by $44 billion in SCB loans.

The arrest of Lan – who used proxies to control what was one of Vietnam’s largest commercial banks by deposits – triggered a panic among depositors, prompting the central bank to inject $4 billion in the three weeks after the arrest and billions more later to keep the bank from collapsing, according to a document seen by Reuters.

A court upheld Lan’s death sentence in December, rejecting her appeal against a conviction for embezzlement and bribery, state media reported.

SCB’s already dire state at the time of the bank run has only deteriorated, necessitating the proposed multi-year restructuring, the Sun Group report says.

Deposits had plummeted to 19.2 trillion dong at the end of last year from 669 trillion dong at the start of October 2022, according to the document.

Vietnam requires banks with subsidiaries, like SCB, to have capital worth 9% of risk-weighted assets as a buffer against potential losses. SCB’s capital adequacy ratio just before the bank run was minus 100%, worsening to minus 176% at the end of 2024 as losses burgeoned, the Sun Group document says, citing new audited data that have not been reported previously.

PATH TO PROFITS?
In documents produced by Vietnam’s police for Lan’s trial, the latest figures disclosed on SCB’s charter capital are for 2017, when investigators found its capital adequacy was minus 4.2%. That year the bank had reported a positive ratio of about 10% and its auditor, Deloitte, raised no warnings in its annual report.

Deloitte did not reply to a request for comment.

The central bank had lent SCB 652.7 trillion dong ($25.6 billion) as of February 18, according to an internal SCB document, reviewed by Reuters, that provides daily updates on cash injections.

Sun Group’s plan aims to make SCB profitable again, citing the developer’s banking experience as a key shareholder since 2021 in a smaller Vietnamese lender, National Citizen Commercial Joint Stock Bank.

It proposes investing at least 3 trillion dong ($120 million) in SCB’s charter capital – funds injected by owners towards core capital buffers.

The document forecasts SCB generating income from sources including investments in government bonds and infrastructure projects funded with resources recovered from loans.

It would repay about half the central bank’s loans by selling recoverable assets, land rights and properties used as collateral for SCB loans, with the remainder coming from profits from new investments, the roadmap showed.

Recoverable assets, however, are only a small portion of those on the banks’ books, Sun Group’s plan says, as the bulk of the credit SCB extended was to shell companies owned by Lan against collateral with inflated values. — Reuters

Cash remittances up 2.9% in January

March 18, 2025 | 12:33 am

US dollar currency — US dollar bills are seen at a money exchange office. — REUTERS

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

MONEY SENT HOME by migrant Filipinos rose by 2.9% year on year in January, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Monday.

Cash remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) coursed through banks increased by 2.9% to $2.92 billion in January from $2.84 billion in the same month in 2024.

The 2.9% annual growth in January was a tad slower than the 3% expansion seen in December 2024.

Month on month, remittances declined by 13.7% from $3.38 billion in December.

Cash remittances in January were also the lowest level in two months or since $2.81 billion in November.

BSP data showed remittances from land-based workers jumped by 3.4% to $2.33 billion in January from $2.25 billion a year ago.

Sea-based OFWs sent home $587 million during the month, inching up by 0.9% from $582 million in the previous year.

“The growth in cash remittances from Saudi Arabia, the United States, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) mainly contributed to the increase in remittances in January 2025,” the central bank said.

In January, the US remained the top source of remittances, accounting for 41.2% of the total.

This was followed by Singapore (7.5%), Saudi Arabia (6.6%), Japan (5.7%), and the United Kingdom (4.7%).

The UAE (3.5%), Canada (3.1%), Taiwan (2.8%), Qatar (2.8%), and Malaysia (2.4%) were also main sources of cash remittances.

Remittances from the top 10 countries accounted for over 80% of overall remittances during the month.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas said the 13.7% month-on-month drop in cash remittances is “not alarming” as this was a seasonal effect as the bulk of remittance flows is usually seen in the fourth quarter.

“The month-on-month slowdown of remittances is expected as the effects of the holiday season came to a close,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said.

“Typically, remittances grow faster during the latter months of the year as families celebrate the holidays,” he added.

Meanwhile, central bank data showed personal remittances, which contain inflows in kind, increased by 2.9% to $3.24 billion in January from $3.15 billion in the same month in 2024.

“The increase was observed in remittances from both land-based and sea-based workers,” it added.

Remittances from workers with contracts of one year or more rose by 3% to $2.52 billion, while those with contracts less than one year went up by 2.5% to $650 million.

In the coming months, Mr. Erece said risks arising from global economic uncertainty could dampen remittance flows.

“This year, we should monitor the persistent global economic uncertainty caused by trade wars and geopolitical tensions, which may cause a bit of a slowdown in remittances as OFWs cushion the risks of higher living costs abroad,” he said.

Markets are pricing in the potential impact of US President Donald J. Trump’s barrage of tariffs on the rest of the world. Among these proposals is a reciprocal tariff that Mr. Trump has pledged to impose on all of the US’ trading partners.

“We should also monitor the exchange rate, influenced by the Fed and BSP’s respective monetary policies. A cautious Fed can cause a peso depreciation, enticing OFW remittances to take advantage of an elevated peso value of the dollar,” he added.

While the US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, its commentary on the impact of tariff policies on US inflation and growth will also be closely watched, Reuters reported.

Cash remittances rose by an annual 3% to $34.49 billion in 2024. The BSP expects remittances to grow by 3% this year.

Inflation could overshoot 2-4% range in second half — BSP

March 18, 2025 | 12:32 am

Public market — People are seen in Baclaran Market in Parañaque City, March 17, 2025. — PHILIPPINE STAR/RYAN BALDEMOR

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) said inflation could overshoot the 2-4% target range in the second half of this year amid base effects.

In its latest Monetary Policy report, the central bank said annual inflation is likely to settle within the 2-4% target band from this year to 2026 amid declining rice prices.

“However, inflation could exceed the target range in the latter part of 2025, primarily due to base effects from easing commodity price pressures in the corresponding period of 2024,” it said.

“Inflation is then projected to move closer to the midpoint of the target range in 2026, supported by an expected moderation in global commodity prices,” it added.

The BSP’s baseline forecasts for inflation are at 3.5% for 2025 to 2026. Accounting for risks, inflation could reach 3.7% in 2026.

In February, the consumer price index (CPI) sharply slowed to 2.1%, bringing headline inflation to 2.5% in the first two months.

For this year, inflationary pressures could come from “higher global oil and non-oil prices, peso depreciation, and recent above-expectation inflation readings,” the BSP said.

However, inflation could breach the 2-4% target range if crude oil prices rise, it said.

BSP estimates show that if crude oil prices average above $100 per barrel, inflation could hit 4.1% this year and 4.8% next year.

Based on the latest Development Budget Coordination Committee macroeconomic assumptions, Dubai crude oil is seen to range from $60 to $80 per barrel this year.

However, the BSP reiterated that risks to the inflation outlook have remained “broadly balanced.”

“Upside risks include potential increases in electricity rates, transport charges, and pork prices,” it said.

According to the BSP’s risk matrix, there is a high probability for a rise in pork prices and a low probability for elevated transport and electricity costs.

“Conversely, the main downside risk stems from the spillover effects of lower tariffs on imported rice to domestic rice prices.”

Rice inflation further decreased to 4.9% in February from the 2.3% drop in January. This was the lowest rice inflation print since the 5.7% contraction in April 2020.

Rice prices are seen to decline further after the Agriculture department declared a food security emergency on rice, as well as lowered the maximum suggested retail price of 5% broken imported rice.

According to the BSP’s calculations, the likelihood of inflation settling within target this year remains above 50%.

“For 2026, the probability of inflation remaining within the target range has increased to nearly 50%, with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of inflation exceeding the upper limit of the target range.”

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain within the Philippine central bank’s 2-4% target from this year until 2027, according to economists surveyed by the BSP.

Analysts’ average inflation estimates were unchanged at 3.2% for this year and 3.3% for 2026, according to the BSP’s Survey of External Forecasters.

Economists also expect inflation to settle at 3.4% in 2027, still within the target band.

“Forecasters identify several potential upside risks to the inflation outlook. These include the effects of geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions on commodity prices, particularly oil.”

“Other factors cited are base effects, uncertainties in international trade, potential upward adjustments to utility rates and transport charges, and proposed minimum wage increases.”

The analysts surveyed assigned a “high probability” of inflation remaining within target over the forecast horizon.

This year, economists expect an 83.2% probability that inflation will settle within 2-4% versus the 15.4% chance that it will exceed the target band.

“The likelihood of inflation falling within the target range is estimated at 84.4% for 2026 and 76.5% for 2027.”

Meanwhile, the respondents expect further policy easing by the central bank this year.

“Regarding monetary policy expectations, most analysts anticipate a loosening of the BSP’s stance in 2025, with projections ranging from 50 to 100 basis points (bps) of easing.”

After keeping rates steady in February, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said a rate cut is still “on the table” at the Monetary Board’s meeting in April, signaling “a few more” rate cuts for the rest of the year.

The central bank unexpectedly kept rates steady at its February policy review, opting to keep the target reverse repurchase rate (RRP) at 5.75%. The BSP had delivered three straight 25-bp cuts at each of its meetings in August, October and December in 2024.

“Views on the 2026 target RRP rate are more diverse, spanning from a 75-bp reduction to no change. For 2027, a majority of respondents foresee the BSP continuing on an easing path.” — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Below-target growth likely in 1^st half of 2025

March 18, 2025 | 12:31 am

Infra-construction-building — CONSTRUCTION of a building is underway in Quezon City. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

PHILIPPINE economic growth is likely to fall short of the government’s target in the first two quarters, GlobalSource Partners said.

“Our assessments show that GDP (gross domestic product) may be expected to increase within a narrow band over the next two quarters — rising from just above 5.7% in first quarter to approximately 5.9% in second quarter,” GlobalSource country analysts Diwa C. Guinigundo and Wilhelmina C. Mañalac said in a report on March 14.

This would be below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 6-8% target band until 2028.

GlobalSource’s first-quarter growth forecast of 5.7% would be slower than the 5.8% print in the same period in 2024.

For the second quarter, GlobalSource’s 5.9% GDP growth projection would be slower than the 6.4% print in the same period in 2024.

“This modest upward trend is driven by resilient historical GDP performance, growth in the services sector, and short-term USD/PHP exchange rate effects,” GlobalSource said.

However, local and geopolitical risks may affect the growth outlook in the first half.

“If both domestic and geopolitical shocks occur in a big, adverse way, they could unsurprisingly alter the outcome of this initial analysis,” GlobalSource said.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier this month said government growth targets may need to be revisited amid rising global economic uncertainty.

“It’s too early to change at this point but we need to be watchful and be flexible because of this uncertainty,” he said.

A DBCC meeting is scheduled to be held at the end of March.

Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah F. Pangandaman has said that the committee historically keeps its target unchanged during the first and second quarters of the year.

Earlier, Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said that “6-6.5% [growth] is doable for 2025.”

However, GlobalSource said the Philippine economy should grow faster than the DBCC’s 6-8% target.

“The economic scarring of the pandemic actually requires the Philippines to grow by much more than the targeted growth rates of 6-8% through the end of the Marcos administration. Persistent poverty and income inequality are additional imperatives to grow by much more,” it said.

During the MAP Economic Briefing and General Membership Meeting on March 12, Mr. Guinigundo said that Philippine GDP growth of 6-8% annually would bring the economy to around P60 trillion by 2036

“To overcome this setback, growth will have to be between 9% and 9.5% through 2028 to be able to return to the original growth path,” he said.

In 2024, the economy expanded by 5.6%, from the 5.5% print in 2023 amid subdued consumption and lower farm output. It fell short of the government’s revised 6-6.5% target.

“It’s easy to blame the onslaught of typhoons during the latter part of the year, which constrained economic expansion. Such weather disturbances could indeed explain part of the failure, but not the entire dynamics,” GlobalSource said.

The economy grew by 5.2% in the fourth quarter, slower than the 5.5% print in the same period in 2023 after a series of typhoons hurt agricultural output.

“Sufficient stock buffering, mangrove propagation, zonal building along the coasts could have also mitigated the effects of these supply shocks. Yes, food inflation likewise deterred economic growth because private consumption spending was generally restrained,” GlobalSource said.

NEDA Undersecretary for Policy and Planning Group Rosemarie G. Edillon attributed the weaker-than-expected GDP growth in 2024 to “extreme weather events, geopolitical tensions, and subdued global demand.” — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante

Actis invests $600M for 40% stake in MTerra Solar

March 18, 2025 | 12:12 am

MGEN Renewable Energy, Inc. (MGreen), through its subsidiary SP New Energy Corp. (SPNEC), said global investment firm Actis Rubyred (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. has completed a $600-million transaction to acquire a 40% equity stake in MTerra Solar, MGreen’s solar development platform.

“This landmark investment marks a major step forward in our mission to accelerate the clean energy transition in the Philippines. With MTerra Solar, we are reinforcing our commitment to delivering reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective energy solutions,” Emmanuel V. Rubio, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of MGen and SPNEC, said in a media release on Monday.

“This collaboration with Actis and MGreen strengthens our ability to meet the country’s growing energy demand while advancing a greener and more resilient energy future,” he added.

The deal’s closing follows the share subscription agreement signed in September last year between Terra Solar Philippines, Inc. — the project’s developer and an SPNEC subsidiary — and Actis.

MGreen is the renewable energy arm of Meralco PowerGen Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Manila Electric Co. (Meralco). The company holds a controlling stake in SPNEC.

With the signing of the subscription agreement, Actis will officially join the Filipino firms in developing and expanding MTerra Solar, which will include a 3,500-megawatt-peak solar farm and a 4,500-megawatt-hour battery energy storage system once fully commissioned.

“MTerra Solar is a marker of what’s possible in terms of scale and ambition with renewable energy in Southeast Asia. It represents the largest such project in this fast-growing region, and we’re delighted to be partnering with MGreen and MGen to deliver this critical project and accelerate the Philippines’ energy transition,” said Rahul Agrawal, partner and head of energy for Southeast Asia at Actis.

Once completed, the P200-billion MTerra Solar is expected to provide clean energy to approximately 2.4 million households under a 20-year, 850-MW mid-merit power supply agreement with Meralco.

The first phase of the project is scheduled for commercial operations by 2026, with the second phase set for 2027.

A syndicate of the country’s largest banks has committed around P150 billion in project financing.

MTerra Solar is part of MGen’s pipeline of projects aimed at achieving an attributable renewable energy capacity of over 1,500 MW by 2030.

“MTerra Solar began as an ambitious project and is now moving toward making a meaningful contribution to the government’s target of having 35% of the country’s energy sourced from renewables. Our collaboration with Actis is a pathway to achieving clean energy for Filipinos,” said Manuel V. Pangilinan, chairman and CEO of Meralco.

UBS AG Singapore Branch served as financial advisor to SPNEC. Latham & Watkins and Picazo Law acted as international and domestic legal counsel to MGreen and SPNEC. Morgan Stanley served as financial advisor, while Milbank and SyCip Law acted as international and domestic legal counsel, respectively, to Actis.

Sought for comment, Juan Paolo E. Colet, managing director at China Bank Capital Corp., said Actis’ investment “ensures that the necessary equity funding is in place to support the completion of the Terra Solar project.”

“Actis brings well-regarded energy infrastructure expertise that will certainly help Terra Solar execute and manage this massive project,” he said in a Viber message.

Meralco’s controlling stakeholder, Beacon Electric Asset Holdings, Inc., is partly owned by PLDT Inc. Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., has an interest in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera

SMC leads power generation with 22.44% market share — ERC

March 18, 2025 | 12:11 am

THE ENERGY Regulatory Commission (ERC) said San Miguel Corp. (SMC) dominated the power generation sector with a 22.44% market share of the national grid as of end-2024.

SMC overtook Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), the investment arm of the Aboitiz Group that controls Aboitiz Power, as the country’s largest power producer in terms of installed generating capacity and market share, the ERC said in a statement on Monday.

Data from the ERC showed that SMC had the highest installed generating capacity nationwide at 6,079.6 megawatts (MW).

Broken down, the company had an installed capacity of 5,519 MW in Luzon; 180.67 MW in Visayas; and 379.89 MW in Mindanao.

AEV came in next with a total capacity of 5,894.5 MW, accounting for 21.75% share in the national grid.

Lopez-led First Gen Corp., a leading renewable energy producer, cemented its position as the third leading energy player with a market share of 13.22%, translating to 3,583 MW of capacity to the national grid.

Pangilinan-led power distributor Manila Electric Co. inched up as the fourth largest power producer by generating a total capacity of 1,467 MW, representing market dominance at 5.42%.

Lastly, Ayala Corp., a conglomerate which controls renewable energy developer ACEN Corp., accounted for 5.28% share in the generation sector with 1,431.3 MW of capacity to the national grid.

Under Republic Act No. 9136 or the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001, no company or related group can own, operate or control more than 30% of the installed generating capacity per grid and 25% in the national scale.

As the country’s energy regulator, the ERC sets the caps for installed generating capacity and market share limitation annually, and may be adjusted as necessary, based on the maximum capacity of generation facilities.

In a resolution dated March 13, the ERC initially set the maximum installed generating capacity to the national grid at 27,096 MW. This is higher than the 25,567.3 MW set for 2024.

For Luzon, the regulator has capped the installed generating capacity for Luzon at 19,419.6 MW, 3,383.9 MW for Visayas, and 4,292.6 MW for Mindanao.

Power companies cannot exceed a market share of 6,774 MW in the national grid. Generating firms are not allowed to go beyond 5,825.9 MW in Luzon, 1,015.2 MW in the Visayas, and 1,287.8 MW in Mindanao.

The commission noted that there are “certain industry developments” that have not been reflected in the data set. Once ready and available, the commission will update the caps set for the year.

“All individuals and entities subject to the MSL (market share limitation) are reminded to strictly comply with the prescribed limits and promptly report to the ERC within fifteen days of exceeding these limits from the start of occurrence, including the reasons for non-compliance,” the regulator said.

SMC INCOME
In a related development on Monday, SMC announced a net income of P36.7 billion for 2024, compared with P44.7 billion in 2023.

“On a reported basis, net income stood at P36.7 billion, including foreign exchange adjustments,” SMC said in an e-mailed statement on Monday.

Core net income rose 22% to P52.3 billion, while operating income increased 11% to P160.8 billion.

Consolidated revenue grew 9% to P1.6 trillion, driven by higher sales volumes in the power, spirits, and fuel and oil segments, along with contributions from the beer and infrastructure businesses.

“Our strong 2024 performance reflects strategic growth, operational efficiency, and disciplined execution. We remain focused on strengthening and making our businesses more efficient while driving sustainability and long-term growth,” SMC Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ramon S. Ang said.

San Miguel Food and Beverage, Inc. posted a 7% increase in net income to P40.9 billion, with consolidated sales rising 6% to P400.9 billion on higher volumes and market expansion.

San Miguel Foods’ net income surged 33% to P8.4 billion as sales grew 3% to P185 billion, driven by its protein and prepared and packaged food segments.

San Miguel Brewery Inc. saw a 1% increase in net income to P25.6 billion, supported by a 4% rise in sales to P153.4 billion.

Ginebra San Miguel’s net income grew 3% to P7.3 billion, as sales jumped 17% to P62.5 billion on strong consumer demand.

San Miguel Global Power Holdings Corp. recorded a 25% increase in net income to P12.4 billion, with revenue climbing 21% to P205.1 billion.

Petron Corp.’s net income fell 16% to P8.5 billion despite an 8% rise in revenue to P868 billion on higher sales volume.

San Miguel Infrastructure maintained growth, with revenue up 7% to P37.5 billion and operating income improving 12% to P20.3 billion.

The cement segment—comprising Eagle Cement Corp., Northern Cement Corp., and Southern Concrete Industries, Inc. — saw net sales decline 6% to P34.9 billion, while operating income increased 10% to P6.6 billion due to cost-control measures. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera and Revin Mikhael D. Ochave

Telcos to see modest growth, sustain strong credit profile, says CreditSights

March 18, 2025 | 12:10 am

Briefs 6 telco - BW FILE PHOTO — BW FILE PHOTO

PHILIPPINE telecommunications (telco) companies are expected to see modest growth this year while maintaining a strong credit profile, driven by continued data and broadband expansion, according to financial research firm CreditSights.

“Overall, we are comfortable with the resilient credit profiles of both Globe and PLDT, underpinned by their leading mobile and broadband market positions in the Philippines,” CreditSights said.

Pangilinan-led PLDT recorded a 21.4% increase in attributable net income for 2024, reaching P32.31 billion, fueled by all-time-high service revenue growth.

Consolidated revenue rose 2.8% to P216.83 billion from P210.95 billion in 2023, primarily driven by higher service revenues.

Telco core income, which excludes the impact of asset sales and losses from Maya Innovations Holdings, increased by 2.3% to P35.14 billion from P34.34 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, Ayala-led Globe posted a full-year core net income of P21.50 billion for 2024, marking a 13.6% increase from P18.92 billion in 2023.

Its consolidated revenue grew 2% to P165.02 billion from P162.33 billion a year earlier.

PLDT and Globe saw sluggish revenue growth last year, CreditSights said, adding that mobile data remained a key growth driver for both telcos, supported by evolving consumer data consumption habits and rising smartphone adoption.

CreditSights expects Globe and PLDT’s credit metrics to grow modestly by about 0.1x to 0.3x this year.

Revenue and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth for both firms is expected to remain in the low- to mid-single digits, as competition in mobile and broadband intensifies with DITO Telecommunity Corp.’s expansion.

The financial research firm noted that tight competition in mobile and broadband will be mitigated by Globe and PLDT’s data center revenues.

For instance, ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (STT GDC) Philippines’ 33-megawatt (MW) data center is expected to be operational by mid-2025, while PLDT’s VITRO Sta. Rosa was completed in 2024.

PLDT continues to explore options for selling a minority stake in its data center business.

The company previously engaged Japan’s Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) for a potential sale of up to 49% of its data center business, but the deal was eventually dropped.

PLDT also ended negotiations with fund manager CVC Capital Partners for the sale of its data center unit.

To date, PLDT, through its subsidiary ePLDT, Inc., operates 11 data centers, including the 50-megawatt hyperscale data center in Sta. Rosa, Laguna.

At the local bourse on Monday, PLDT shares rose by P3, or 0.22%, to close at P1,363 apiece, while Globe shares declined by P10 to P2,096 per share.

Hastings Holdings, Inc., a unit of PLDT Beneficial Trust Fund subsidiary MediaQuest Holdings, Inc., holds a majority stake in BusinessWorld through the Philippine Star Group, which it controls. — Ashley Erika O. Jose

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