Home Blog Page 2910

Sex trafficking plagues Filipino city where typhoon wrought havoc

UNSPLASH

 – Social worker Carmela Bastes had dedicated years of her career to helping catch sex traffickers and supporting their victims in the Filipino city of Tacloban. Then, a decade ago, Typhoon Haiyan struck.

Haiyan, which killed more than 6,000 people and displaced millions in the Philippines, triggered a humanitarian crisis that provided fertile ground for traffickers in the hard-hit Eastern Visayas region.

Besides making more women and girls vulnerable to sexual exploitation, the 2013 typhoon – known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda – wreaked havoc for law enforcement efforts against the traffickers.

“When Yolanda struck, court documents were washed away,” said Bastes, adding that due to the loss of paperwork and court delays it had taken 13 years to secure a conviction in one case she had worked on.

She said the city was still feeling the typhoon’s effects today, despite several initiatives by the local government to tackle sex trafficking.

In the city’s downtown areas, street prostitution has become “rampant”, she said, with traffickers offering women and girls for sex in brochures circulated in chat apps or in Facebook groups.

Even before the typhoon hit, Eastern Visayas was known as a source of trafficked women and children due to high rates of poverty in the region, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said at the time.

Between 2013 and 2015, there were 670 reported cases of trafficking in persons in the regions affected by Typhoon Haiyan, including Tacloban, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

It did not provide figures for the same period before the storm, or for more recent years. Regional police do not compile trafficking statistics and a national police spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

 

FOREIGN AID DRIES UP

Often from poor families in coastal towns, trafficking victims are promised free education, lodging, and jobs – only to be forced to work in brothels in the city or other provinces, such as Manila and Pampanga.

Rica, 18, who was raised by her aunt, was sold by her boyfriend to multiple men for sex through online bookings three years ago in exchange for a few hundred pesos and food.

“There was no more hope left for me,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, sitting alongside other residents at a shelter for women and girls operated by the city government, which last year declared Tacloban an “anti-trafficking city”.

Here, social worker Jerimae Coringcoting and shelter director Maria Madelyn Ebin said admissions were growing, meaning additional expenses for the shelter.

In the aftermath of Haiyan, foreign aid groups gave money to the shelter, but the funding has long since dried up, and Ebin said it was a struggle to meet the residents’ basic needs with the annual budget it receives from the city.

“Some of our clients take medicines for psychological conditions. Those medicines alone deplete our budget,” Mr. Coringcoting said.

A lack of funding has also hit efforts in Tacloban to catch the traffickers.

“As much as we want to solve trafficking, we lack the budget, training and support to sustain our efforts,” said Jeferson Pabunan, chairperson of the Youth in Action Against Trafficking in Tacloban, a civil society group that helps police monitor trafficking cases in poor villages outside the city.

 

GROWING ONLINE THREAT

In Tacloban and elsewhere in the Philippines, the trafficking of children for online sexual exploitation is a growing threat, social workers said.

A study released in September by the International Justice Mission – an anti-trafficking non-governmental organization – found that nearly half a million children, or 1 in every 100 Filipino children, were trafficked to produce new child sexual exploitation materials in 2022 alone.

Bastes said city police receive tips about online sexual abuse from Interpol, but she fears many cases go unreported.

Community-led efforts could help solve this hidden form of trafficking, said Margarita Magsaysay of the Department of Justice’s Inter-agency Council Against Trafficking, who leads the national centre against online sexual abuse of children.

She said the government was working to strengthen referral pathways and reporting mechanisms for victims.

“But that doesn’t even touch the roots of online sexual abuse of children,” she said. “For the perpetrators, it’s easy money … we must remind them that there are penalties under the law.”

Even if victims can be convinced to come forward, bringing traffickers to justice can be difficult, social workers said.

With congested courts and only one hospital authorised in the Eastern Visayas region to conduct medical checks on sexual abuse victims – a requirement in Philippine law, convictions can take years, said Coringcoting.

At the shelter, tucked next to a public school in Tacloban’s busy bayside boulevard, social workers like her have to juggle the legal cases of about 20 victims at a time. Their job includes liaising between police and victims, and appearing alongside them in court.

Despite its budget shortages, the shelter remains a lifeline for the 24 women and girls who live there.

“In the shelter, I learned the term ‘human rights’,” said Ella, 21, a sexual abuse victim who lives in the shelter with her three young sisters.

“That we are not just girls. We are women who should stand up to our abusers,” she said. – Reuters

EU proposal may accelerate pharma innovation decline, industry group says

REUTERS

 – major pharmaceutical rules overhaul, proposed by the European Commission in April, could see Europe’s share in global research and development contract by a third to 21% by 2040 translating to 2 billion euros ($2.15 billion) per year in lost investment, industry group EFPIA said on Monday.

The European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) says the Commission has not conducted a competitiveness impact assessment and if the new rules become law, they would accelerate the negative innovation trend in the EU and hit small and medium-sized enterprises the hardest.

“Any changes to our incentives system would equally affect EU-based and foreign-based companies which bring medicines to the EU and, therefore, it would not put EU firms at a disadvantage,” an EU Commission spokesperson said.

Medication was the single biggest contributor to the EU’s trade surplus, with 235 billion euro ($252.13 billion) worth of exports in 2021.

The EFPIA said small biotech companies have already moved to the United States and China.

The Commission has proposed shortening the time a new medicine remains patented in a bid to reduce the cost of medicines for its citizens with a faster shift to cheaper generics.

The Commission said its proposal would reduce new medicine approval times to 180 days from 400 days. It also includes boosts for small and medium-sized enterprises such a longer period to get data protection in all 27 member states as well as fee reductions or waivers schemes and favorable regulation for rare disease medicines.

Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk NOVOb.CO, said that the reduction would not allow a pharmaceutical company to recoup the investment in development as well as the cost of marketing.

“If you chop off, one or two or three years of exclusivity, it’s the peak sales that you take away. When you launch a product, you have a negative profit contribution because you invest more in marketing, sales…it’s really easy the last few years that you recoup your investment,” Jorgensen said.

Novo Nordisk, a Danish firm, has become the Europe’s most valuable listed company since it launched game-changing weight loss and diabetes drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic. Jorgensen added that Novo Nordisk has already invested more in its Boston presence.

“Everyone, going forward, will start conducting trials in the U.S….In some cases, they (the medicines) are not going to developed in Europe,” Jorgensen said, adding that the U.S. offers a major market after one approval process versus country-by-country in the EU.

Germany, Belgium and France would be the hardest hit by the proposed rules, the EFPIA said citing research by Dolon that it commissioned. – Reuters

Blinken says Palestinian voices key to Gaza future

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Official White House — CAMERON SMITH VIA FLICKR

 – Top US diplomat Antony Blinken said the Palestinian Authority (PA) should play a central role in the future of the Gaza Strip, as he met with Iraqi leaders and toured the region amid spiraling tensions over Israel’s war with Hamas.

Mr. Blinken passed through Israeli checkpoints to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank city of Ramallah, and then traveled on to Iraq. It was his second visit to the region since the Hamas militants who rule Gaza launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,400 people and taking more than 240 others hostage, according to Israel.

Palestinian views, voices and aspirations need to be “at the center” of conversations about the future of Gaza, Mr. Blinken told reporters in Baghdad.

As Israel continued a campaign of air strikes that Gaza health officials say has killed 9,770 Palestinians, Secretary of State Blinken rebuffed calls for a ceasefire from Arab officials on Saturday after appealing, unsuccessfully, to Israel for more limited pauses to the fighting a day earlier.

“This is a process,” Mr. Blinken said about the push for humanitarian pauses, saying Israel has important questions about how they would work, and details are being discussed now.

It is important that any pause advance several issues, including hostage release, he said.

In discussions with the Iraqi government, Mr. Blinken said, “I made very clear that the attacks, the threats coming from militia that are aligned with Iran are totally unacceptable.”

The United States is sending a message to “anyone who might seek to take advantage of the conflict in Gaza to threaten our personnel here or anywhere else in the region: ‘Don’t do it,'” he said.

 

POST CONFLICT PLAN

As well as seeking to ensure the conflict does not spread in the region, Mr. Blinken is trying to kickstart discussions on how Gaza could be governed after the complete destruction of Hamas that Israel says is its aim.

Abbas told Mr. Blinken that Gaza is “an integral part” of the state Palestinians want, according to an account of the meeting from the official Palestinian news agency WAFA, which suggested any PA role in governing Gaza would have to be part of a wider settlement of the decades-old conflict.

“We will fully assume our responsibilities within the framework of a comprehensive political solution that includes all of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip,” Abbas was quoted by WAFA as saying.

The two met for about an hour but did not address the media.

“We need to see the US playing the role of an honest mediator, not adopting the Israeli narrative,” Husam Zomlot, head of the Palestinian Mission to the United Kingdom, told CBS on Sunday.

Mr. Blinken had some “good ideas” about the future he said, but “now is the time to ….stop the murder of civilians”

Abbas told Mr. Blinken there should be an immediate ceasefire and that aid should be allowed into Gaza, according to spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh.

Mr. Blinken said the United States was committed to getting aid into Gaza and restoring essential services there, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on the meeting.

“The secretary also expressed the commitment of the United States to working toward the realization of the Palestinians’ legitimate aspirations for the establishment of a Palestinian state,” Mr. Miller said.

 

TROUBLED AUTHORITY

Mr. Blinken has suggested an “effective and revitalized Palestinian Authority” would make the most sense to ultimately run the strip but admitted that other countries and international agencies would likely play a role in security and governance in the interim.

Abbas’ PA, which exercises limited self-rule in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, has seen its popularity shrivel amid allegations of graft, incompetence and widely hated security cooperation arrangements with Israel. It is unclear who will succeed the aging and ailing Abbas, 87, a staunch opponent of Hamas.

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan said on Saturday after meeting with Blinken that it was premature to talk about the future of Gaza, as they called for an immediate ceasefire to address the humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the strip’s 2.3 million residents.

Mr. Blinken argued that a ceasefire would only allow Hamas to regroup, but is trying to convince Israel to agree to location-specific pauses that would allow much needed aid to be distributed within Gaza.

While Hamas tightly controls besieged Gaza, the West Bank is a complex patchwork of hillside cities, Israeli settlements and army checkpoints that split Palestinian communities.

Violence was already at a more than 15-year high this year but has surged further since the war began, with more than 170 attacks on Palestinians involving Jewish settlers recorded by the United Nations.

Mr. Blinken credited Abbas for tamping down tension in the West Bank and told him he had pressed Israeli officials for accountability, the senior State Department official said. – Reuters

Do you trust AI to write the news? It already is – and not without issues

RAWPIXEL-FREEPIK

Businesses are increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) to generate media content, including news, to engage their customers. Now, we’re even seeing AI used for the “gamification” of news – that is, to create interactivity associated with news content.

For better or worse, AI is changing the nature of news media. And we’ll have to wise up if we want to protect the integrity of this institution.

Imagine you’re reading a tragic article about the death of a young sports coach at a prestigious Sydney school.

In a box to the right is a poll asking you to speculate about the cause of death. The poll is AI-generated. It’s designed to keep you engaged with the story, as this will make you more likely to respond to advertisements provided by the poll’s operator.

This scenario isn’t hypothetical. It was played out in The Guardian’s recent reporting on the death of Lilie James.

Under a licensing agreement, Microsoft republished The Guardian’s story on its news app and website Microsoft Start. The poll was based on the content of the article and displayed alongside it, but The Guardian had no involvement or control over it.

If the article had been about an upcoming sports fixture, a poll on the likely outcome would have been harmless. Yet this example shows how problematic it can be when AI starts to mingle with news pages, a product traditionally curated by experts.

The incident led to reasonable anger. In a letter to Microsoft president Brad Smith, Guardian Media Group chief executive Anna Bateson said it was “an inappropriate use of genAI [generative AI]”, which caused “significant reputational damage” to The Guardian and the journalist who wrote the story.

Naturally, the poll was removed. But it raises the question: why did Microsoft let it happen in the first place?

The first part of the answer is that supplementary news products such as polls and quizzes actually do engage readers, as research by the Center for Media Engagement at the University of Texas has found.

Given how cheap it is to use AI for this purpose, it seems likely news businesses (and businesses displaying others’ news) will continue to do so.

The second part of the answer is there was no “human in the loop”, or limited human involvement, in the Microsoft incident.

The major providers of large language models – the models that underpin various AI programs – have a financial and reputational incentive to make sure their programs don’t cause harm. Open AI with its GPT- models and DAll-E, Google with PaLM 2 (used in Bard), and Meta with its downloadable Llama 2 have all made significant efforts to ensure their models don’t generate harmful content.

They often do this through a process called “reinforcement learning”, where humans curate responses to questions that might lead to harm. But this doesn’t always prevent the models from producing inappropriate content.

It’s likely Microsoft was relying on the low-harm aspects of its AI, rather than considering how to minimise harm that may arise through the actual use of the model. The latter requires common sense – a trait that can’t be programmed into large language models.

Generative AI is becoming accessible and affordable. This makes it attractive to commercial news businesses, which have been reeling from losses of revenue. As such, we’re now seeing AI “write” news stories, saving companies from having to pay journalist salaries.

In June, News Corp executive chair Michael Miller revealed the company had a small team that produced about 3,000 articles a week using AI.

Essentially, the team of four ensures the content makes sense and doesn’t include “hallucinations”: false information made up by a model when it can’t predict a suitable response to an input.

While this news is likely to be accurate, the same tools can be used to generate potentially misleading content parading as news, and nearly indistinguishable from articles written by professional journalists.

Since April, a NewsGuard investigation has found hundreds of websites, written in several languages, that are mostly or entirely generated by AI to mimic real news sites. Some of these included harmful misinformation, such as the claim that US President Joe Biden had died.

It’s thought the sites, which were teeming with ads, were likely generated to get ad revenue.

Generally, many large language models have been limited by their underlying training data. For instance, models trained on data up to 2021 will not provide accurate “news” about the world’s events in 2022.

However, this is changing, as models can now be fine-tuned to respond to particular sources. In recent months, the use of an AI framework called “retrieval augmented generation” has evolved to allow models to use very recent data.

With this method, it would certainly be possible to use licensed content from a small number of news wires to create a news website.

While this may be convenient from a business standpoint, it’s yet one more potential way that AI could push humans out of the loop in the process of news creation and dissemination.

An editorially curated news page is a valuable and well-thought-out product. Leaving AI to do this work could expose us to all kinds of misinformation and bias (especially without human oversight), or result in a lack of important localized coverage.

Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code was designed to “level the playing field” between big tech and media businesses. Since the code came into effect, a secondary change is now flowing in from the use of generative AI.

Putting aside click-worthiness, there’s currently no comparison between the quality of news a journalist can produce and what AI can produce.

While generative AI could help augment the work of journalists, such as by helping them sort through large amounts of content, we have a lot to lose if we start to view it as a replacement. – Reuters

Diokno says to vote to hold rate in next BSP policy meeting

Philippine Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Dioko said on Monday he will vote to keep interest rates steady when the central bank meets to review policy on Nov. 16.

“Given the decline in inflation, there’s no justification for higher interest rates,” Mr. Diokno, a member of the central bank’s policymaking monetary board, told reporters.

The central bank forecasts inflation to have eased to between 5.1% and 5.9% in October, from 6.1% in September.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points in an off-cycle move on Oct 26.

Its next rate-setting meeting will follow release of October inflation data on Nov. 7 and third quarter GDP on Nov. 9.

Mr. Diokno said third-quarter growth was better than second quarter. — Reuters

Aboitiz Football Cup: Fostering communities and nurturing young talent at LIMA Estate

The much-awaited Aboitiz Football Cup kicks off this November at the Aboitiz Pitch in LIMA Estate, Batangas.

The Aboitiz Football Cup, the Philippines’ longest-running grassroots football tournament under the Aboitiz Group, is gearing up for its exciting 23rd season. The action unfolds on the vibrant Aboitiz Pitch, the largest multi-sports artificial turf in Luzon, nestled within the expansive and thriving LIMA Estate.

LIMA Estate, a renowned mixed-use development by Aboitiz InfraCapital Economic Estates, is celebrated for its vast green spaces, inviting climate, and a thriving work environment that fosters a wellness-oriented lifestyle. Central to LIMA Estate is its 30-hectare Business District, intentionally designed to foster community engagement through lush green areas, pet-friendly parks, jogging and biking trails, and cutting-edge sports facilities like the Aboitiz Pitch. These amenities, coupled with pioneering sustainability initiatives, have firmly established LIMA Estate as a leader in smart and sustainable industrial estate development throughout the Philippines.

Located at the heart of Batangas, LIMA Estate has undergone a remarkable transformation. It has evolved from its industrial roots into a vibrant community deeply ingrained in the daily lives of Batangueños, offering an array of activities that underscore LIMA Estate’s commitment to promoting active and healthy lifestyles while simultaneously nurturing community development. This steadfast commitment seamlessly aligns with the BERDE (Building for Ecologically Responsive Design Excellence) Certification, a prestigious recognition shared by both The Outlets at Lipa and LIMA Estate, which proudly hold 5-star ratings, signifying their unwavering dedication to environmental compliance within the region.

The Aboitiz Football Cup: More Than Just a Tournament

The Aboitiz Football Cup serves as a prime example of this remarkable transformation. While it attracts local football enthusiasts, at its core, it caters to people of all ages, offering a valuable opportunity for individuals to connect and enjoy meaningful moments together. This tournament is just one facet of the diverse spectrum of experiences that the estate offers, ranging from outlet shops, numerous restaurants, a pet playground, biking paths, to even a go-kart area, all designed to enhance the enjoyment of its visitors.

This year, AIC Economic Estates has announced the addition of a youth CALABARZON division, expanding the presence of participating football teams from Metro Manila and Region IV-A. The seven-a-side football festival is scheduled to kick off on November 11, 2023, and will run through December 9, 2023.

Organized by RSA1 Sports Group and LIMA Estate, the tournament is dedicated to empowering the next generation of athletes in CALABARZON by providing them with the exposure and opportunities they need through training and competition.

Clifford Academia, Vice President for Operations at LIMA Estate, expressed his enthusiasm for this season. “As LIMA Estate hosts its fourth Aboitiz Football Cup this year, we take pride in being part of a broader mission to enhance communities, improve well-being, and enrich lives through the power of sports. This tournament is more than just a competition; it’s a celebration of community building and youth empowerment,” he said.

The upcoming Aboitiz Football Cup will feature an extensive range of age categories, totaling 13 divisions, from the U7s up to the Open and Veterans category, providing even more opportunities for budding football talents. This year’s edition of the tournament will see an increased participation of younger players from CALABARZON. Matches are set to take place every Saturday.

To further nurture the potential of the players and enhance their skills and capabilities, LIMA Estate has partnered with the Philippine Football Federation and Football Lipa to establish a comprehensive referees coaching and tournament management program. The coaches from the Football Lipa Academy will lead an eight-day football clinic for community kids from Lipa-Malvar, offering them a unique opportunity to develop their football skills through hands-on training and practice sessions. This clinic allows children to play alongside accomplished football players.

In addition to these programs, there will be an introduction to football events management led by seasoned experts such as Edwin Alobin, Tournament Director from the Rizal Football Association, and Rely San Agustin, President of RSA1 Sports Group. This initiative will impart essential knowledge to young athletes and sports educators on how to effectively organize a football event or tournament, adding another dimension to their skill set.

As the Aboitiz Football Cup marks its 23rd season, it extends its mission beyond the game. The tournament’s focus is on empowering the next generation of athletes and creating vibrant, healthy communities that nurture dreams and strengthen community bonds through the power of sports. This holistic approach reinforces LIMA Estate’s position as a multifaceted hub, seamlessly integrating industry, leisure, and community-building into one thriving entity.

 


Spotlight is BusinessWorld’s sponsored section that allows advertisers to amplify their brand and connect with BusinessWorld’s audience by enabling them to publish their stories directly on the BusinessWorld website. For more information, send an email to online@bworldonline.com.

Join us on Viber at https://bit.ly/3hv6bLA to get more updates and subscribe to BusinessWorld’s titles and get exclusive content through www.bworld-x.com.

GDP likely grew 4.9% in Q3 — poll

Commuters ride the Light Rail Transit (LRT) Line 1 in Manila in this photo taken on July 30, 2023. — PHILIPPINE STAR/MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

PHILIPPINE economic growth likely picked up in the third quarter amid a recovery in government spending, although elevated inflation and high interest rates may have dampened household consumption, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 economists and analysts last week yielded a median gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate of 4.9% for the July-September period, a tad faster than the preliminary 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter.

However, this pace would be slower than 7.7% in the July-September period a year ago.

Analysts’ Q3 2023 GDP estimates

If realized, this would bring the nine-month average GDP expansion to 5.2%, still below the government’s 6%-7% full-year target. 

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release third-quarter GDP data on Nov. 9.

Analysts said that a recovery in government spending and steady household consumption likely drove the GDP growth in the July-to-September period. However, the pace of economic expansion may have been tempered by persistent inflation and high borrowing costs.

“A catch-up in government spending should have provided some lift to overall GDP. However, household consumption and private investment likely provided much weight, limiting how much the overall figure can be lifted,” Aris Dacanay, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economist at HSBC Global Research, said in an e-mail.

Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, senior economist at ING Bank N.V. Manila, gave a 4.2% GDP growth forecast for the third quarter due to the expected “modest rebound” in government spending.

“But capital formation could slide deeper into negative territory. Consumption should still be positive but the weight of elevated prices and rising household debt amidst a high interest rate landscape could be a drag on all important household spending,” Mr. Mapa said in an e-mail.

Latest Treasury data showed state spending rose by 4.12% to P3.82 trillion in the nine months to September from P3.67 trillion a year ago.

“However, growth in public construction may be dampened by weaker activities on the private side given the high interest rate environment,” Domini S. Velasquez, chief economist at China Banking Corp.  said in an e-mail.

The slower-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth was partly attributed to the 7.1% contraction in government spending. Household consumption also grew at a weaker pace of 5.5% during the second quarter from 8.5% a year ago.

On the expenditure side, private consumption historically accounts for about three-fourths (75%) of the Philippine economy, while government spending contributes a little over a tenth.

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco estimated that economic growth further slowed to an annual 3.1% in the third quarter as private consumption deteriorated partly due to unfavorable base effects.

“Moreover, total investment probably will shrink for the first time since the coronavirus disease 2019-hit years, albeit only modestly. Net trade should provide more support to growth, however perversely, as it will be flattered by a pullback in imports, which is statistically growth-positive,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Chanco expects government spending to have grown above 2% in the third quarter, reversing the sharp contraction in the previous quarter.

“I expect momentum sequentially, quarter on quarter, to remain fairly weak and subdued, as private consumption continues to struggle with poor balance sheets (inadequate savings, a lot more debt than in recent years),” he said, noting that labor demand is beginning to stagnate, and remittance growth is slowing.

Ms. Velasquez said services likely drove growth on the supply side “with strong gains in transportation, accommodation, food service activities, and arts and recreation.”

“Manufacturing likely saw some increased demand in preparation for the holidays. Meanwhile, we remain pessimistic about agriculture as strong typhoons hit the country in July-August and El Niño continues to pose a risk on production,” she said.

Makoto Tsuchiya, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he expects the economy to have expanded by 4.3% in the July-to-September period due to base effects after a sequential decline in the second quarter.

“We expect a statistical bounce-back, but it won’t be a significant improvement given the surrounding macroeconomic conditions. The external demand continues to suffer, although the end of the IT cycle downturn likely lent some support to the electronics exports,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

HIGH RATES
Meanwhile, economists warned the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) aggressive policy tightening may hurt GDP growth for the rest of the year.

“The lagged impact of past monetary tightening will continue to constrain domestic demand, particularly weighing on business investment. These headwinds are likely to intensify towards the end of the year and into 2024,” Mr. Tsuchiya said.

The BSP resumed monetary tightening in an off-cycle 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike in October, bringing the policy rate to a new 16-year high of 6.5%. Since May 2022, the central bank has hiked rates by a cumulative 450 bps.

This as headline inflation quickened for a second straight month to 6.1% in September. Inflation averaged 6.6% from January to September, still above the BSP’s 5.8% forecast for 2023.

“Clouds are darkening above Philippine’s 2023 outlook. For starters, households will struggle as inflation remains above the BSP’s 2-4% target rate and interest rate stays high through the rest of 2023. That broad weakness in demand will also cap private investment,” Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said in an e-mail.

Ms. Tan said she expects government spending to improve in the last quarter, and net exports to see modest gains. The Philippine economy will likely expand 5.2% in 2023, slower than the 7.6% print in 2022 but “will once again outperform its regional peers this year,” she added.

Ms. Velasquez said increased activities during the holiday season will likely provide support to the economy.

“The fourth quarter and full-year growth will still likely fall short of the government’s 6-7% target. Our full-year growth forecast for 2023 is around 5.2%. We think the economy will fare better in 2024 as inflation and interest rates go down,” she said. — Lourdes O. Pilar

NG gross borrowings slump in Sept.

BW FILE PHOTO

THE NATIONAL Government’s (NG) gross borrowings fell in September, mainly due to a decline in domestic debt, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) reported.

Data from the BTr showed that NG’s gross borrowings plummeted by 76.79% to P103.246 billion in September from P444.874 billion in the same month a year ago.

Month on month, borrowings were also 16.8% lower than P124.056 billion in August.

Domestic debt accounted for the bulk or 89% of total gross borrowings during the month.

Gross domestic borrowings plunged by 78.92% to P92.067 billion in September from P436.709 billion in the same month in 2022.

Broken down, the BTr raised P61.064 billion from fixed-rate Treasury bonds and P31.003 billion from Treasury bills.

Meanwhile, external borrowings jumped by 36.91% year on year to P11.179 billion from P8.165 billion. This consisted entirely of new project loans.

In the first nine months, the NG’s gross borrowings slipped by 2.28% to P1.78 trillion from P1.82 trillion in the same period a year ago.

Domestic borrowings stood at P1.38 trillion, lower by 6.86% from P1.48 trillion in the previous year.  This accounted for 77% of total gross borrowings in the nine months to September.

The BTr raised P965.828 billion from the issuance of fixed-rate Treasury bonds, P283.763 billion from retail Treasury bonds, and P126.845 billion from Treasury bills.

Meanwhile, gross external debt climbed by 17.28% to P405.741 billion in the January-September period from P345.959 billion a year ago.

This was composed of P163.607 billion in global bonds, P145.059 billion in program loans, and P97.075 billion in new project loans.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the decline in gross borrowings was likely due to the narrow budget deficit and maturing government bonds in August and September.

“The narrower budget deficit from January-September fundamentally reduced the need for the National Government to borrow,” he said in a Viber message.

In the first nine months, the NG’s budget deficit narrowed by 2.89% to P983.5 billion from P1.01 trillion a year ago. This was also 11% lower than the P1.106-trillion program for the period.

“Some frontloading of borrowings earlier this year when interest rates were still lower also reduced the latest National Government borrowing data,” Mr. Ricafort added.

Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. President and Chief Economist John Paolo R. Rivera said that high interest rates also reduced the capacity to borrow.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) delivered an off-cycle 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike in October, bringing the benchmark rate to a 16-year high 6.5%. Since May 2022, the central bank has hiked rates by a cumulative 450 bps.

“Data from the previous months have shown underspending for many agencies which prompted them to spend instead of borrow. Other than that, reduced borrowing may indicate that there are funding sources available besides borrowing,” Mr. Rivera added.

For 2023, the National Government set its borrowing program at P2.207 trillion, consisting of P1.654 trillion from domestic sources and P553.5 billion from foreign creditors. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Short selling debuts in PHL after a 27-year wait

BLOOMBERG

AFTER a nearly three-decade wait, traders will finally be able to short-sell stocks in the Philippines.

A total of 52 stocks and one exchange-traded fund, including all the equities on the benchmark gauge, will be available for short selling on Monday after regulators signed off on a proposal first made by the Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. (PSE) in 1996.

“Without short selling or any index futures, we will be a long-only market, so if there’s uncertainty on the economy, the political situation or even in emerging markets, they will all sell,” PSE President Ramon S. Monzon said in an interview. “With short selling, they can stay here and hedge,” he said, referring to foreign investors.

The Philippines is embracing short selling just when regional peers such as China and South Korea are tightening control over it with emerging markets under pressure from higher US rates. Mr. Monzon is seeking to revive interest in a market where average daily stock transactions have slumped by almost 40% in the past decade, and foreign equity investments are set to shrink for a sixth year.

“It’s definitely a step in the right direction and about time,” said Conrado Bate, president at COL Financial Group, Inc., the nation’s biggest online stock brokerage. It will take time for investors and brokers to be familiar with shorting equities, he added.

For the debut, the Philippine Depository and Trust Corp. is the only licensed lending agent that can provide shares that it does not own for short selling. Other brokers can lend out shares that they own to clients or borrow stocks that they do not have from the depository for a fee.

LIQUIDITY FEARS
Brokers will be able to lend out shares that they don’t own to other borrowers once they have their own lending permits. To do that, they need monitoring systems to track the shares. But brokers aren’t in a rush to become lending agents due to the costs required, according to Alex Dauz, president at Maybank Securities’ Philippine unit.

The benchmark has declined nearly 9% in 2023, among the worst performers in Asia. Foreigners have withdrawn nearly $6 billion from the country’s equity markets since 2018.

The ability to short-sell may not be enough to lure back global funds. “Liquidity has been one of the key constraints to foreign investors to build large positions in the Philippines stock market,” said Ernest Chew, portfolio manager for Southeast Asia equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

“Short selling might cause more unfavorable volatility particularly in a market with lower liquidity,” he said. — Bloomberg

PHL on track to hit medium-term targets — Diokno  

Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno — PHILIPPINE STAR/KRIZ JOHN ROSALES

THE PHILIPPINES is on track to achieve its growth and fiscal targets in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) due to the “better-than-expected” revenue and spending performance, Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said.

“Specifically, the debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios are likely to be less than forecasted in the MTFF,” he said in a statement on Sunday.

As of end-June, the government’s debt as a share of GDP stood at 61%, still above the 60% threshold considered by multilateral lenders to be manageable for developing economies. The government targets to end the year with a 61.2% debt-to-GDP ratio and bring it below 60% by 2025.

Meanwhile, the deficit-to-GDP ratio stood at 4.8% as of end-June. The government has set a budget deficit ceiling of P1.499 trillion for 2023, equivalent to 6.1% of the GDP.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said on Friday it “maintains optimism” on reaching its macroeconomic goals this year.

The DBCC held a special meeting on Friday but did not make any changes to its macroeconomic assumptions or growth targets.

The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said that the committee is scheduled to meet within the first week of December for a final review of its macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal program this year.

The DBCC said it expects to exceed its revenue target this year. “The emerging total revenue collection for 2023 is estimated to be P3.84 trillion to P3.9 trillion, which is above the P3.73-trillion approved DBCC level for the year,” it said.

Government revenues rose by 6.79% to P2.84 trillion in the January-to-September period, surpassing by 2.98% its P2.76-trillion revenue program. As of end-September, revenue collections already accounted for 76.1% of the full-year program.

Meanwhile, the DBCC said that government expenditures are expected to improve in the fourth quarter due to agencies’ accelerated spending and implementation of projects.

The National Government disbursement rate rose to 98.9% as of September from 93.4% as of June.

Data from the Treasury showed that state spending increased by an annual 4.12% to P3.82 trillion in the nine-month period. However, it missed its P3.86-trillion target by 1.06%.

In July, agencies have been ordered to draft catch-up plans to address low budget utilization, after a 7.1% contraction in government spending contributed to the weaker-than-expected 4.3% gross domestic product growth in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, analysts said that while current macroeconomic targets are still doable, the government may need to introduce some reforms.

“If the reforms needed to bring inflation back to (2-4%) target and if the public sector spending commitments are delivered, the goals still look viable,” BPI Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. said in a Viber message.

Reforms that will address regulatory bottlenecks and improve ease of doing business may boost private sector confidence, he added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that any downward revisions made would only be slight, especially on economic growth.

Economic managers are currently targeting 6-7% GDP growth for this year.

“If a revision is made, I think full-year 2023 growth at 5.8% has a higher probability than 6%,” Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr., president of a research consultancy and of the Minimal Government Thinkers think tank, said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ricafort said economic growth will be driven by improved labor market figures, overseas Filipino worker remittances, and manufacturing data. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

Greenhouse gas emissions from PHL land transport to quadruple by 2050

The World Bank said that phasing out old public utility vehicles (PUV) may significantly help in reducing emissions in the transport sector. — PHILIPPINE STAR/WALTER BOLLOZOS

GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) emissions from the land-based transport sector in the Philippines are projected to quadruple by 2050, the World Bank said.

“Economic and population growth along with rapid urbanization has led to an increase in the number of vehicles per capita in the Philippines which will grow fivefold between year 2020 and 2025, from 114.7 per 1,000 people to 672.9 vehicles per 1,000 people,” it said in a background paper.

It noted that vehicle ownership, particularly motorcycles and tricycles, will likely increase as public transport systems remain undeveloped in the country.

“If current motorization continues, greenhouse gas emissions from land transport would more than quadruple from 25 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020 to 147 MtCO2e by 2050, growing at an average annual rate of 5.39%,” the World Bank said.

Among land-based transport systems, motorcycles and tricycles will contribute the most to these emissions, with its share increasing to 29.6% in 2050 from 21.2% in 2020.

Light vehicles such as cars, vans, taxis, are expected to contribute 20.9% to these GHG emissions by 2050.

The transport sector accounts for 13% of the Philippines’ greenhouse gas emissions and is the largest source of urban pollution, according to the World Bank.

“Road-based transport contributes the highest share of greenhouse gas emission of about 87.3% of total transport (emissions),” the lender said.

Meanwhile, water-based transport accounted for 8% of emissions, domestic aviation contributed about 5%, and rail for 0.3%.

“The dominance of road-based transportation may well be related to the country’s relatively low levels of other modes of transport including rail and ferry services,” the World Bank said.

In terms of energy consumption, the country’s transport sector accounts for 35% of total consumption, particularly in oil. It also has the second-highest growth rate in final energy consumption.

“The transport sector has been one of the dominant sectors of final energy consumption and is on a fast-growth trajectory. The Philippine transportation sector used 12,735 kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe) in 2019,” it added.

Due to the sector’s energy consumption and expected increase in emissions, the World Bank said there is a need to employ low-carbon strategies and practices.

“Given the relatively low motorization rate and rapid urbanization at the same time, the country has a good window of opportunity to pursue sustainable low carbon transport development,” it said.

The Philippines is targeting to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 75% in 2030 under its Nationally Determined Contribution as part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement.

The World Bank said that it would be “very challenging” for the Philippines to achieve the target.

“To achieve the target of 75% reduction, the greenhouse gas emission from the transport sector will need to follow a different trajectory by reaching an average of 71% reduction per year,” it said.

“To achieve net-zero emission from land transport by 2050, the Philippines needs to completely decarbonize the sector by converting all land transport to electric vehicles (EVs) and utilizing 100% RE (renewable energy) in power generation, or use of biofuels for non-EVs,” it added.

The multilateral lender recommended that the Philippine government encourage more private sector investments in low-carbon transport initiatives by improving the overall environment for public-private partnerships.

Meanwhile, the World Bank noted that phasing out old public utility vehicles (PUV) may significantly help in reducing emissions in the transport sector.

“Currently, plenty of public utility vehicles as old as 20 years and above are still in operation in the country, resulting in a lower overall fuel economy in the sector,” the lender said. “Thus, implementing a vehicle retirement policy together with improving new vehicle standards can have significant benefits towards emissions reduction.”

The World Bank said that ramping up the electrification of mass transit will also substantially reduce emissions by 2050, especially if “all mass transit fleets are using 100% renewable electricity.”

“Another opportunity is the electrification of the vehicle fleet. The full implementation of the government program requiring 5% electrification of government, commercial and public transport fleets will contribute a 2.4% greenhouse gas emission reduction,” it added.

The transition of public utility vehicles to electric variants would also require $1.5 billion subsidies to achieve cost parity.

“On top of this, the bulk of the necessary investment needed to support this transition would come from the construction and installation of charging stations, which is estimated to cost around $100.2 billion, distributed until 2040. While this is such a huge number as of writing, technology developments and demand uptakes in the next few years can significantly reduce the costs,” the multilateral lender said. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

15 years and a P20-million bra

ANTHONY RAMIREZ has been designing for celebrities for 15 years. Among his favorite clients are LGBTQ+ TV host Vice Ganda, actresses Nadine Lustre and Kathryn Bernardo, and beauty queen Celeste Cortesi, he said during a group interview after his Oct. 18 show. For that show, he tapped into a current fantasy: the 1990s-era socialite.

Mr. Ramirez is riding on the Gen Z wave of ‘90s nostalgia as well as old money style, which explains the sleek bobs most of the models sported on the runway. For the clothes, he used a color palette of pastels and neutrals.

The show opened with a glittering bikini top with pants, and a shawl wrapped around a bag, which the designer said he is getting into (he also said that the shoes for the show were his design, and that he’s definitely thinking about going into that field).

The ’90s had a touch of nostalgia for Old Hollywood glam if we’re judging from red carpet looks from that era, so that reference was not lost in a white sheath dress accompanied by a trailing wrap. The designer used velour and velvet, also a ’90s staple, seen on suits and coats on both men and women.

A male model went down the runway in a bronze jumpsuit with tuxedo lapels, its silhouette reflecting loose and easy styles. Another bronze dress felt like one seen in a Marilyn Monroe movie, and more dresses followed ‘90s red carpet styles (a lavender dress reminded one of a dress worn by Uma Thurman). A sky blue number on a woman featured another ‘90s detail, corsetry details (thanks, Madonna). More outfits with these hints were seen on the runway. With fuchsia suits and romantic dresses paired with bare midriffs, it seemed like a ’90s magazine spread come to life.

Still, we saw local details like a capiz (windowpane oyster) body chain and a capiz skirt.

The designer did remark that he was moving on to more elegant directions. We pointed out how some of the outfits could be quite revealing, but Mr. Ramirez said, “That’s the most controlled hubadera (stripper). I can do more!” When his use of trails and trains were pointed out, the designer said: “We just want to add drama.”

We’re not ignoring the elephant in the room here: the P20-million bra. This was made in collaboration with jewelry brand Viera. “I designed a bra, and I asked for the diamonds,” the designer said.

The bra was worn by a model under a white silk shirt and a black ballgown-length skirt. Upon closer inspection backstage, it was made of two small triangles studded with diamonds, joined by several diamond strips forming a network over the model’s bosom. Jo Ann Bitagcol, the Filipina supermodel of the 1990s, also walked the runway while wearing serious jewelry: her dress was held up by a long diamond chain, from the same brand.

The models finished the show while walking to The Verve’s “Bittersweet Symphony.”

This collection reflects many changes in direction for the designer: he recently moved his atelier from one part of Quezon City to Horseshoe Village, moving into a house built in the 1960s. There was a light drizzle on the day of the show, putting a damper on attempts to hold the show in the garden, designed to mimic the set from Meet Joe Black (which featured Claire Forlani as a 1990s socialite).  They eventually did hold the show outdoors, but this reporter stayed inside. Perhaps the little wrinkles of the day were telling of the designer’s method: “I create clothes based on my emotions for that day.” — Joseph L. Garcia