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Weight-loss drugs draw Americans back to the doctor

STOCK PHOTO | Image by ennrick from Pixabay

Powerful weight-loss drugs are expanding use of U.S. health care as patients starting prescriptions are diagnosed with obesity-related conditions or take the drugs to become eligible for other services, health records and discussions with doctors show.

An exclusive analysis of hundreds of thousands of electronic patient records by health data firm Truveta found slight, but measurable, increases in first-time diagnoses of sleep apnea, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes within 15 days of an initial prescription for a GLP-1 weight-loss drug between 2020 and 2024.

In addition to obesity-related conditions, some patients are being prescribed the drugs to lose weight and become eligible for services, including organ transplants, fertility treatments or knee replacements, according to interviews with seven doctors and five other health experts.

“This is a population that previously felt stigmatized by health care providers and often didn’t return. But now that they’re actually seeing themselves get healthier, asking clinicians questions and engaging more, I do think we’re seeing new patients,” said Dr. Rekha Kumar, a New York endocrinologist and obesity medicine specialist.

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro have been shown to lead to average weight loss of at least 15%.

Andrew Friedson, director of health economics at the Milken Institute and three other experts said the impact of the drugs on overall healthcare use is not yet clear. The new diagnoses could mean higher initial spending, but early detection could save costs down the line, he said.

Dr. Courtney Younglove, an obesity medicine specialist and founder of Heartland Weight Loss clinic in Overland Park, Kansas, said she has referred obesity patients for long-delayed pap smears and other routine care, including colonoscopies. Many overweight patients avoid doctors and routine tests for years due to the stigma and bias they often encounter, she said. “A lot of people with obesity don’t do a lot of preventive health maintenance.”

 

‘THE COURAGE TO ASK’

Phil, a 43-year-old Chicago technology executive who asked for his full name to be withheld for privacy reasons, generally avoided doctors before receiving a GLP-1 prescription from a telehealth provider in early 2023.

He said he told his regular physician about the medication months later, after he had lost more than 30 lbs, and was taken aback by her supportive response. He decided then to advocate more for himself and ask for help with other conditions, including addiction and mental health.

“It gave me the courage to ask,” he said.

The Truveta analysis found that for every 1,000 patients with a first-time GLP-1 prescription, 42 were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within 15 days in 2024, up from 32 in 2020. Over the same period, the number of sleep apnea diagnoses per 1,000 patients rose to 11 from 8 and the number of cardiovascular disease diagnoses increased to 15 from 13.

The most obese patients were twice as likely as people who were less overweight to receive a type 2 diabetes diagnosis, and three times as likely to be diagnosed with sleep apnea, the Truveta data showed.

The analysis was based on 33,630 first-time GLP-1 prescriptions for overweight or obese patients in 2020 and 224,496 in the first 10 months of 2024.

Lilly declined to directly comment on the data, saying in an emailed statement “it is important that adults living with obesity receive appropriate diagnosis and access to evidence-based care.”

Novo Nordisk also declined to comment directly, noting its aim “to address unmet needs for a wider range of patients.”

 

QUALIFYING FOR SURGERIES

ResMed, which sells sleep apnea devices, had revenue growth of 11% for its fiscal year ending in June – a trend the company attributed in part to the GLP-1 drugs.

The medications are “bringing people into primary care like never before,” ResMed CEO Michael Farrell said at the company’s recent shareholder meeting.

In addition to things like sleep apnea, the weight-loss drugs could lead to more joint replacements, said Sara Mallatt, director of healthcare research at market analysis firm AlphaSense.

“As people’s BMIs come down, they’ll be eligible for surgeries they wouldn’t otherwise,” she said. “No one is saying this is happening in a meaningful way right now, but we think it will.”

University of Chicago Medicine last year launched a weight-loss clinic aimed at helping prospective organ transplant patients lose weight to qualify for surgery, with the GLP-1 drugs playing a key role.

“Before they had a place to send these patients, which is our clinic, the scheduler would just say, ‘hey, what’s your weight, what’s your height, what’s your BMI,’ and if they didn’t fit their criteria, they would just tell them to lose weight on their own,” said Anesia Reticker, the center’s clinical pharmacist specialist.

Retired Indiana steelworker Bensabio Guajardo, 68, was prescribed Ozempic at the clinic in 2023 when he was deemed too obese for a double lung transplant needed to keep him alive after pulmonary fibrosis made breathing increasingly difficult.

“It helped me a lot. It took my cravings away,” Guajardo said. After losing around 90 pounds and stopping the drug ahead of a successful surgery in May, his doctor put him back on it to control high blood sugar.

Reticker said the program has received about 100 referrals over the past year from transplant centers in the Chicago area. – Reuters

VW talks drag into the night as union says outcome is ‘far from clear’

Volkswagen AG's headquarters / Credit: Volkswagen AG

 – Volkswagen management and labor representatives negotiated late into the night on Monday in a last-ditch round of talks on cost cuts before Christmas, with unions saying it remained far from clear whether compromise would be reached.

Talks ended after around 13 hours of negotiation in the early hours on Tuesday without a deal but would resume mid-morning, a spokesperson for IG Metall union said.

The sides were far apart on key points, with unions adamant that any solution must exclude plant closures and the carmaker insisting it cannot rule them out.

“It was far from clear late on Monday evening whether rapprochement or a stalemate were a realistic outcome of the talks on Tuesday,” the IG Metall union said in a statement published to its website.

Unions have threatened unprecedented strike action in the new year if a compromise is not found in this week’s talks, which both sides have said could last several days.

“Workers don’t want to go into Christmas in fear,” she told union members outside the hotel before talks began early on Monday, the fifth round since early September.

Europe’s biggest carmakers are being squeezed by high costs and the arrival of cheaper Chinese competitors which are taking the battle for market share to their home turf.

Unions blame poor decisions by management for Volkswagen’s malaise, from the diesel emissions scandal to not investing earlier in affordable EV technology.

Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, has seen its share price fall by more than a third over the past 12 months, reflecting the sprawling German group’s difficulties in tackling rising rivals and a slowdown in EV demand.

The carmaker, like others across Europe, is struggling with overcapacity in high-cost markets squeezing margins and persistently lower sales. VW has said it does not expect car sales, down by around 2 million in Europe since the pandemic, to fully recover, and it must adapt.

More than 100,000 staff at nine plants across Germany downed tools last week in the largest strikes at the carmaker, protesting against management’s stance that wages must be cut and capacity downsized for the VW brand to stay competitive.

In a sign of the depth of Volkswagen’s problems, its top shareholder Porsche SE on Friday said it may have to write down the value of its 31.9% stake by as much as 20 billion euros ($21 billion).

This is mainly due to the delay in Volkswagen’s annual planning round as a direct consequence of the prolonged talks with unions, Stifel analysts said in a note.

Such a write down would still assume a book value for Volkswagen shares that is more than twice as high as its current market price, they added.

Shares in Porsche SE, which serves as the investment vehicle of the Porsche and Piech families and also holds a 12.5% stake in the namesake carmaker, were down 2.9%. – Reuters

SM brings Christmas joy to 6,000 underprivileged kids

Kids in Cebu received brand new learning toys through SM Store JMall’s Shop&Share a Toy program, in partnership with World Vision Cebu.

SM, through the SM Store’s “Shop and Share a Toy” recently provided Christmas toys to 6,000 underprivileged kids in Metro Manila, Cagayan, Isabela, Batangas, Bicol Region, Cebu, and Zamboanga City to herald the season of giving.

This year’s initiative was a 20% increase from last year’s 5,000 donated toys. The distribution of toys was conducted in partnership with SM Foundation, World Vision, Good Neighbors Philippines, and Rotary International.

From Dec. 1 to 10, 2024, SM Store offered customers the chance to bring joy to a child by donating a toy with a small contribution. For every single-receipt purchase of P3,000, customers were eligible to donate a brand-new toy for only P100.

Through the donations from the campaign, select SPED (Special Education) schools in Zamboanga City were also able to recreate their play area inside the classrooms.

A 2021 study highlighted the vital role of games and toys in children’s lives, contributing significantly to their cognitive, motor, psychosocial, emotional, and linguistic development.

For more information about SM Store’s Shop&Share programs, visit smstore.com/csr.

 


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Almost 800, including 40 Filipinos, arrested over Nigerian crypto-romance scam

REUTERS

LAGOS – Nigeria’s anti-graft agency said it had arrested 792 suspects in a raid on a building believed to be a hub for fraudsters who lured victims with offers of romance, then pressed them to hand over cash for phoney cryptocurrency investments.

The suspects, including 148 Chinese and 40 Filipino nationals, were detained on Dec. 10 at the seven-storey Big Leaf Building in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission spokesperson Wilson Uwujaren said.

The luxury building housed a call centre mostly targeting victims from the Americas and Europe, he added.

Staff there would make contact with people through social media and messaging platforms, including WhatsApp and Instagram, them seduce them online or offer them apparently lucrative investment opportunities, Uwujaren told reporters.

Once victims were hooked, they were pressured to transfer money for fake cryptocurrency schemes and other non-existent projects.

“Nigerian accomplices were recruited by the foreign kingpins to prospect for victims online through phishing, targeting mostly Americans, Canadians, Mexicans and several others from European countries,” Uwujaren said.

“Once the Nigerians are able to win the confidence of would-be victims, the foreigners would take over the actual task of defrauding the victims,” he said.

Uwujaren said the Commission was collaborating with international partners and would look into potential links to organized crime. Its agents seized computers, phones and vehicles in the raid, he added. — Reuters

T-bill yields inch up before Fed, BSP meetings

BW FILE PHOTO

THE GOVERNMENT made a full award of the Treasury bills (T-bills) it offered on Monday even as yields rose slightly as investors’ rate-cut expectations have been fully priced in.

The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) raised P15 billion as planned from the T-bills it auctioned off on Monday as total bids reached P46.74 billion, more than three times as much as the amount on offer. However, this was lower than P56.463 billion in tenders seen the previous week.

Broken down, the Treasury borrowed the programmed P5 billion from the 91-day T-bills as tenders for the tenor reached P15.999 billion. The three-month paper was quoted at an average rate of 5.818%, up by 4.4 basis points (bps) from the 5.774% seen last week, with accepted bids yields ranging from 5.7% to 5.84%.

The government likewise made a full P5-billion award of the 182-day securities, with bids reaching P15.041 billion. The average rate of the six-month T-bill stood at 5.975%, up by 5.3 bps from the 5.922% fetched last week, with accepted rates at 5.9% to 5.99%.

Lastly, the Treasury raised P5 billion as planned via the 364-day debt papers as demand for the tenor totaled P15.7 billion. The average rate of the one-year debt inched up by 0.9 bp to 5.977% from the 5.968% quoted last week, with the tenders accepted having rates ranging from 5.95% to 5.98%.

At the secondary market before the auction, the 91-, 182-, and 364-day T-bills were quoted at 5.8404%, 6.0571%, and 6.0739%, respectively, based on PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service (BVAL) Reference Rates data provided by the Treasury.

The government fully awarded its T-bill offer as the yields fetched were “all lower than the prevailing secondary market rates,” the Treasury said in a statement.

T-bill yields were “relatively higher” than those fetched at the previous auction as the market has already priced in a rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) at this week’s policy meeting, a trader said by phone.

The market also expects the BSP to be hawkish in the first quarter of 2025 amid uncertainties, the trader added, although its easing cycle is still likely to continue next year.

“Treasury bill average auction yields were again mostly slightly higher for the 11th straight week, similar to the slight weekly increase in the comparable short-term PHP BVAL yields, despite the widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut and BSP rate cut, amid some premium on crossing-the-year funds as the accounting yearend draws closer due to some balance sheet management,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Still, T-bill rates have “somewhat normalized” and are now close to comparable BVAL levels, he added.

The Fed will hold its last policy review for the year on Dec. 17-18. Markets widely expect another 25-bp cut at this week’s meeting.

The US central bank started its easing cycle in September with a 50-bp cut and followed it up with a 25-bp reduction at its November review, bringing the fed funds rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range.

Meanwhile, the BSP will meet to discuss policy on Dec. 19 (Thursday). A BusinessWorld poll conducted last week showed that 13 out of 16 analysts expect the Monetary Board to reduce benchmark borrowing costs by 25 bps for a third straight meeting, which would bring the policy rate to 5.75%.

The BSP kicked off its rate-cut cycle in August with a 25-bp reduction. It cut borrowing costs by another 25 bps in October to bring the target reverse repurchase rate to 6%.

Monday’s T-bill auction was the last offering of domestic debt for the year. The government raised P1.97 trillion from the local market this year, below its P2.11-trillion domestic borrowing program.

The government borrows to help fund its budget deficit, which is capped at P1.52 trillion or 5.7% of gross domestic product this year. — A.M.C. Sy

BSP amends guidelines for participants of Peso Real-Time Gross Settlement system

BW FILE PHOTO

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) has amended its guidelines for the Peso Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system to revise the penalties for erring participants.

In a memorandum, the central bank said it is adding supplementary policies on penalties and sanctions under the Peso RTGS rules.

“Depending on the gravity of the offense committed by a participant, the Bangko Sentral may impose penalties and sanctions,” it said.

These may include fines, suspension of the participant’s privilege to avail of the Intraday Settlement Facility, and suspension or termination of the participant’s access to the Peso RTGS payment system.

It added that repeat offenders “shall be meted with stiffer penalties and sanctions.”

The amended rules will be part of the Manual of Regulations for Payment Systems.

The monetary penalties go as high as P100,000 to as low as P200, depending on the type of bank and violation.

For example, one of the violations with the largest penalty is the failure to properly manage liquidity position as manifested by any of the following circumstances: queueing of a transaction for over 15 minutes, rejection of more than three transactions per day due to insufficient balance of settlement account, and cancellation of more than three transactions per day.

This type of violation will merit a penalty of P75,000 per incident for universal banks and Islamic banks.

The monetary penalties for other types of banks for the same violation are P65,000 for commercial banks, P30,000 for digital banks and thrift banks, and P20,000 for rural banks, and nonbanks with quasi-banking functions or nonbank electronic money issuers or other participants maintaining settlement accounts with the BSP.

Failure to establish a resilient, documented and tested business continuity plan and noncompliance with system enhancement requirements will also see universal banks, Islamic banks, and commercial banks getting slapped with the same penalties. Meanwhile, digital banks and thrift banks must pay 20,000, while rural banks will be charged P10,000 for the said violations.

Other violations include noncompliance with settlement timelines set by the BSP and failure to repurchase securities sold to the BSP under an extended Intraday Settlement Facility availment in excess of the allowable limit.

The amended rules also detail the monetary penalties on noncompliance with reporting standards, including delayed, erroneous and unsubmitted reports. Banks can be fined as high as P30,000 for an unsubmitted report, according to the rules.

The BSP could also impose fines ranging from P5,000 to P100,000 for other violations not included in the amended rules, non-compliance with applicable laws, as well as the “combination of violations, or multiple cases of the same violation.”

“Once the Bangko Sentral, through its appropriate department, ascertains that a participant has committed a punishable violation, it shall send a notice of violation with corresponding penalty to the participant,” it said.

“The participant shall justify within 15 calendar days from receipt of notice why it should not be penalized or sanctioned as indicated in the notice. The justification shall be signed by the President (or equivalent) of the concerned participant and sent to the Head of the appropriate Bangko Sentral department.” — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

EastWest Bank partners with GCash

PHILSTAR FILE PHOTO

EASTWEST Bank Corp. has partnered with GCash to integrate the bank’s financial products on the e-wallet platform.

“EastWest is proud to partner with GCash to bring accessible and user-friendly financial solutions to a broader segment of the Filipino population. This collaboration aligns with our commitment to providing an ‘EasyWay to Bank,’ ensuring that our customers have seamless, reliable access to essential resources backed by our expertise and service dedication, whether through innovation or face-to-face support,” EastWest Bank Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jerry G. Ngo said in a statement on Monday.

The partnership aims to make financial resources more accessible to underserved communities.

EastWest Bank will be integrated into the GCash Loans Marketplace, where it will offer financial products, exclusive rates, and a streamlined application process.

“Through this collaboration, more Filipinos can now access EastWest’s tailored products directly on the GCash app. This is in line with our shared mission to further promote financial inclusion in the Philippines,” Fuse Lending, Inc. President and CEO Antonio Santos “Tony” Isidro said.

Fuse Lending is the lending arm of GCash.

EastWest Bank’s attributable net income jumped by 49.1% year on year to P2.32 billion in the third quarter. This brought its nine-month net income to P5.81 billion, up by 19.57% from the previous year.

Its shares went up by 20 centavos or 2.02% to close at P10.10 apiece on Monday. — A.M.C. Sy

Nubank-led $250-M investment round in Tyme Group to boost GoTyme Bank

TYME GROUP has received a $250-million investment from a group of compnies led by Brazil-based digital bank Nubank (Nu), which will help fund its expansion in Asia, including GoTyme Bank.

“Nubank will become a 10% shareholder in Tyme Group. The total amount raised is $250 million, which is actually the largest fintech raise in Southeast Asia this year,” GoTyme Bank President and Chief Executive Officer Nathaniel D. Clarke told BusinessWorld in an interview last week.

“A lot of that funding will help hypercharge our growth here and get us to profitability…  We now have the ammo to fulfill that vision of becoming the largest everyday retail bank here,” Mr. Clarke said.

GoTyme Bank is a partnership between the Gokongwei Group and Singapore-based Tyme Group,  which also operates TymeX in Vietnam and digital bank TymeBank in South Africa.

“Nu’s investment in Tyme Group will benefit GoTyme Bank Philippines and TymeBank South Africa, bringing not only capital to support growth but also expertise in lending solutions and impact product creation,” GoTyme Bank said in a statement.

“We are excited with the partnership with Nubank, a global digital banking leader, as we believe this collaboration will further propel GoTyme Bank in the Philippines as well as accelerate Tyme Group’s growth and expansion across multiple markets,” JG Summit Holdings, Inc. President and Chief Executive Officer Lance Y. Gokongwei said.

The latest investment round brings Tyme Group to unicorn status as it now has a total valuation of $1.5 billion.

“Tyme’s oversubscribed Series D capital raise was led by Nu, which invested $150 million, with M&G’s Catalyst Fund subscribing for $50 million. Existing shareholders, including the Gokongwei Group, Tencent, British international Investment, Norrsken 22, Blue Earth, Lavender Hill, Ethos Fund, and Africa Fig Tree (Founders and Employees), are investing a further $50 million,” GoTyme Bank added.

“Nubank revolutionized financial services, and having them as a shareholder will help accelerate the development of our strategic capabilities, execution, and expansion plans in Southeast Asia, through their investment of financial resources and counsel. This is a moment of great significance for Tyme Group,” Coen Jonker, Tyme Group founder and CEO, said.

David Vélez, Nu founder and CEO, said their investment in Tyme Group is in line with their belief that the future of financial services globally is in digitally native companies.

“We have met dozens of teams across different geographies, and we think that Tyme Group is extremely well-positioned to be one of the digital bank leaders in Africa and Southeast Asia. We are excited to work with Tyme to share many of our learnings of scaling this model to hundreds of millions of customers,” he added,

CREDIT EXPERTISE
The partnership between Tyme and Nu will bring additional resources and expertise to GoTyme Bank that would propel its growth, the digital bank said.

Mr. Clarke said that in particular, Nubank will bring expertise in credit cards.

“That’s actually how they’re different than us. We started on the transactional, deposit, and savings side. They started with credit card and then only got a bank’s license later. So, they were born very credit-led,” he said. “So, they’ll be helping us, advising us, potentially helping on capability on credit.”

“They’re quite excited about our model. They believe that digital banks around the world are going to be the winners in everyday banking. But they have made the decision that they don’t have the operational capability to stretch across the other side of the world. So, they’re going to focus on the Americas organically. But they feel like there’s good investment and synergy to invest in Asia,” Mr. Clarke said.

Nu also brings in focus on long-term and sustainable growth, he added, prioritizing customer acquisition and getting scale.

GoTyme Bank is one of the six digital banks licensed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. The others are Tonik Digital Bank, Inc.; Maya Bank; Overseas Filipino Bank; UNObank; and UnionDigital Bank. — Aaron Michael C. Sy

Remittance growth slows in October

PHILIPPINE STAR/ MIGUEL DE GUZMAN

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

CASH REMITTANCES from overseas Filipino workers (OFW) rose by 2.7% in October, the slowest growth in four months, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Data from the central bank showed that cash remittances increased to $3.08 billion in October from $3 billion in the same month a year ago.

The remittance growth rate was the weakest since the 2.5% logged in June this year. October also marked the first time in four months that growth fell below 3%.

Overseas Filipinos’ Cash Remittances“The expansion was seen in remittances from both land-based and sea-based workers,” the BSP said.

Remittances from land-based workers jumped by 3.2% year on year to $2.48 billion, while money sent by sea-based workers inched up by 0.6% to $602.35 million.

Personal remittances, which include inflows in kind, also rose by 2.7% to $3.42 billion in October from $3.33 billion a year ago.

Remittances from workers with contracts of one year or more increased by 3% to $2.68 billion, while money sent home by workers with contracts of less than a year went up by 1.3% to $670 million.

In the January-October period, cash remittances grew by 3% to $28.3 billion from $27.49 billion a year earlier.

As of end-October, cash remittances from land-based workers jumped by 3.4% to $22.62 billion, while those from sea-based workers inched up by 1.4% to $5.69 billion.

“The growth in cash remittances from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates contributed mainly to the increase in remittances in January-October 2024,” the BSP said.

The US accounted for 41.2% or the biggest share of overall cash remittances in the 10-month period.

This was followed by Singapore (7.1%), Saudi Arabia (6.2%), Japan (4.9%) and the United Kingdom (4.8%).

Other top sources of remittances include the United Arab Emirates (4.3%), Canada (3.5%), Qatar (2.8%), Taiwan (2.8%), and South Korea (2.5%).

Meanwhile, personal remittances rose by 3% to $31.49 billion as of end-October from $30.57 billion in the comparable year ago period.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said that the latest remittance data reflect global uncertainty.

“First is global economic uncertainties. Economic challenges in host countries, such as inflationary pressures or slower economic growth, may have reduced disposable income for OFWs limiting the amount they can remit,” he said.

Geopolitical tensions in top remittance sources such as the Middle East, Europe and the United States also impacted remittance flows, he added.

Mr. Rivera said October typically sees slower remittance growth “as OFWs prepare to send larger amounts closer to the holiday season (e.g., November and December).”

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the weaker peso during the month “would require the sending of less OFW remittances to pay the same amount of expenses in pesos that, in turn, would have led to slower year-on-year growth in OFW remittances.”

The peso depreciated to P58.1 against the greenback at end-October from the P56.03 per dollar at end-September.

For the remainder of the year, remittances are seen to continue to increase, especially during the holiday season.

“In the coming months, growth may accelerate in November and December due to the holiday season. Sustained demand for OFWs in high-income countries and the potential easing of inflation globally could also support a rebound,” Mr. Rivera said.

On the other hand, Mr. Ricafort cited risk factors such as the incoming Trump administration’s strict immigration policies that could dampen remittances next year.

“Possible protectionist policies by US President-elect Donald J. Trump, who will start office on Jan. 20, 2025, that could tighten immigration rules in the US in an effort to create and protect more jobs for US citizens, thereby potentially slow down OFW remittances from the US,” he added.

The central bank expects cash remittances to grow by 3% this year and in 2025.

Pace of easing must be considered very carefully — BSP

Shoppers enter a mall amid the holiday season in Manila. The central bank expects the inflation rate to average 3.1% this year. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ RYAN BALDEMOR

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy path is skewed towards easing, but the pace of cuts should be carefully considered, an official said.

“In the case of the central bank, we’ve actually had two meetings where the Monetary Board has relaxed the policy stance. The messaging is that while the general direction is still for relaxation, the pacing has to be considered very carefully,” BSP Deputy Governor Francisco G. Dakila, Jr. said at the ASEAN+3 Economic Cooperation and Financial Stability Forum.

The Monetary Board is expected to deliver another 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut on Thursday, according to 13 out of 16 analysts in a BusinessWorld poll conducted last week.

If realized, this would be the third straight meeting that the central bank reduced rates.

It would also bring the benchmark rate to 5.75% from the current 6%, for a total of 75 bps worth of cuts by end-2024.

The BSP began its rate-cutting cycle in August with a 25-bp cut and delivered another cut of the same size in October.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said they plan to implement rate cuts in “baby steps.” He also noted that while they are likely to continue further easing next year, it may not necessarily be done every meeting or every quarter.

“When we began the relaxation pace, we were thinking that in 2025, the Fed would be lowering by about 100 bps,” Mr. Dakila said.

“And now… that space has changed considerably because the Fed is now envisioned to move by just 50 bps in 2025,” he added.

Markets are awaiting further signals from the US Federal Reserve’s final meeting for the year. Investors see it as a near-given that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting. However, markets have only priced in an 18% chance of a January cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, Reuters reported.

“Because of the changing inflation dynamics in the United States, it may be that right now, we’re not looking at a scenario where the Fed would be raising rates again,” Mr. Dakila said.

“But the most likely scenario is that they will still be reducing in 2025, but at a slower pace than before. And we have taken that into account into our policy scenarios,” he added.

However, Mr. Dakila said the BSP prefers to take into consideration domestic data in its policy decisions.

“But even so, the main consideration for monetary policy would be domestic inflation and how that relates to the target,” he said.

Headline inflation averaged 3.2% in the 11-month period, still well within the BSP’s 2-4% target range.

“Even when we look at the risk-adjusted forecast, they remain within the target band. So having said that, it’s the case, therefore, that the primary consideration for monetary policy would be domestic inflation, how inflation relates to the target,” Mr. Dakila said.

The central bank expects the inflation rate to average 3.1% this year.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dakila said that the peso’s recent performance has been similar to other currencies in the region. Currency movements are making less of an impact on inflation-targeting, he added.

“Just to note that with inflation targeting, what we’ve seen is that the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the currency has gone down considerably as the public has become more accustomed to seeing greater volatility in the peso.”

“I think that’s a good sign because that means that we can worry less about our ability to meet the inflation target while keeping to a market-determined exchange rate.”

The peso closed at P58.671 per dollar on Monday, weakening by 20.1 centavos from its P58.47 finish on Friday. This was its weakest finish since its P58.71-per-dollar close on Nov. 27.

“Having said that, as the Board has already said, we retain the option to go into the market should there be any conditions that threaten to go into an abrupt change in the exchange rate that can dis-anchor inflationary expectations,” Mr. Dakila added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson

PEZA targeting to approve up to P250-B investments in 2025

THE PHILIPPINE Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) is targeting to approve as much as P250 billion worth of investments in 2025, its top official said on Monday.

PEZA Director-General Tereso O. Panga said the agency is targeting a “9 to 10% increase in investments from (our) 2024 performance,” to be driven by the manufacturing and information technology (IT) sector.

“This will translate to more or less P235 (billion) minimum to P250 billion in investments,” Mr. Panga said at a media briefing.

As of November, PEZA has already approved P201.55 billon worth of investments, surpassing its full-year target of P200 billion.

Mr. Panga said the total investment approvals could reach P215 billion by yearend as the PEZA board still has one more meeting. This would exceed the full-year target by 7.5%.

“We’re now covering December and there’s a board meeting (on Dec. 17). There’s a total of P13.45 billion (up for approval) so we expect P215 billion for 2024,” he added.

If realized, investment approvals this year would be 15.5% higher than the P186.098 billion worth of investments approved in 2023.

“That’s the highest by far in the last seven years or in 2018,” Mr. Panga said.

He noted the PEZA’s game plan was to equal the record level of investments during the Aquino administration.

“The highest they got was P311.9 billion in 2012,” he added.

Recent economic reforms are expected to attract more foreign investors to the Philippines, analysts said.

Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco said in a Viber message that a measure seeking to extend land lease limits for foreign investors to 99 years would entice more foreign investments in PEZA’s economic zones.

The measure, considered a priority by the Marcos administration, aims to liberalize the Philippines’ land lease policies which is currently limited to 75 years for foreigners.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the signing of the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) Act would attract more foreign investments in the Philippines.

“The CREATE MORE, already signed into law on Nov. 11, would help make foreign investors decisive to locate in the country, now with better and greater certainty on foreign investment incentives,” Mr. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The CREATE MORE Act lowers corporate income tax to 20% from 25% for registered business enterprises (RBE). It also offers more attractive incentives for strategic investments.

Meanwhile, Mr. Panga said growth in PEZA’s economic zones will be driven by locators from the manufacturing and IT industries.

“We are predominantly in manufacturing, that’s 32% of our investments. Then, you have IT, that’s another 12-15%. So, these are the traditional winners for PEZA in the ecozones,” he added.

Mr. Panga said that PEZA is also looking to diversify the  investment mix at economic zones.

“We just have to expand our product mix, and especially in electronics… We need to promote assembly testing and packaging, which is really our bread and butter. But we have strong potential in (integrated circuit) design, including electronic manufacturing services,” he added.

He said that PEZA is also looking for locators from the electric vehicle and data center industries. — Adrian H. Halili

Revenue collection to surpass target this year — DoF

A woman files her annual income tax return at the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) office in this file photo. — PHILIPPINE STAR/ EDD GUMBAN

REVENUE COLLECTION is on track to exceed this year’s revised goal, with revenue effort expected to be the highest since 1997, the Department of Finance (DoF) said.

“Total revenue collection for 2024 is expected to increase to P4.42 trillion by the end of the year, surpassing the full-year target,” the DoF said in a statement on Monday.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Dec. 2 raised this year’s revenue collection goal to P4.38 trillion from P4.27 trillion previously.

“As a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) the emerging revenues will climb to 16.7%, the highest in the last 27 years or since 1997,” the DoF said.

The DoF said it was able to generate more revenues to fund the national budget without imposing new taxes.

Instead, the DoF said it privatized public assets, raised the dividend contributions of government-owned and -controlled corporations (GOCCs) and did a “sweep” of unused funds of GOCCs.

In April, the DoF raised the mandatory dividend remittances of GOCCs to the National Government to 75% of their annual net earnings in 2023 from 50% previously.

“The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and the Bureau of Customs (BoC) likewise improved their revenue administration efficiency by ensuring ease of paying taxes and accelerating their respective digitalization programs,” it said.

Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury showed revenue collections jumped by 16.83% to P3.77 trillion in the January-to-October period.

Taxes, which made up 86% of the total revenues, increased by 11.4% to P3.23 trillion as of end-October. BIR collections rose by 13.49% to P2.42 trillion as of end-October, while Customs collections went up by 5.32% to P777.6 billion.

“The rest of the DoF’s revenue reforms are in the advanced stages in Congress, namely the Rationalization of the Fiscal Mining Regime, the Excise Tax on Single-Use Plastic Bags, Package 4 of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program, and the Motor Vehicle Road User’s Tax,” DoF said.

The House version of the rationalization of the fiscal mining regime was approved last year, while its Senate counterpart is still pending at plenary.

The excise tax on single-use plastic bags, comprehensive tax reform program, and the motor vehicle road user’s tax have also been approved by the House of Representatives.

“2024 is a year of triumph for the Filipino people. In the face of unprecedented challenges, we have emerged stronger. I assure you that from here on, things will get better — because you have a government that works very hard to ensure that all Filipinos reap the rewards of strong economic growth through more comfortable lives and more high-quality jobs,” Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto said in a statement.

The DBCC trimmed the GDP growth target for this year to a range of 6-6.5% but widened the target band to 6-8% for 2025 until 2028, due to “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

Despite the revised target, the DBCC “remains optimistic” about achieving the 6-6.5% growth target this year. — A.R.A.Inosante

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