THE NEW United States tariffs released on April 2 have come as a surprise to Governments around the world. The scope and scale of the tariffs announced are higher than many expected, especially those imposed on some of the smallest and least developed countries. The global average of these new tariffs stands at about 19%, with a minimum “baseline” tariff of 10% on all goods, with several countries in Asia and the Pacific subjected to tariffs of 30% or more. These differential tariffs come on top of existing MFN tariffs, making the new tariff structure complex and its impact difficult to assess.

The accompanying table shows some of the countries in Asia and the Pacific that are most directly affected by this new policy. Countries most exposed are those that, 1.) face higher new US tariffs relative to others; 2.) have significant direct exports to the USA; and/or 3.) are significantly involved in global value chains (GVCs) of goods destined for the US market.

Countries are ranked by the share of their exports going directly to the USA. Based on the first two criteria, Fiji, Cambodia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China are the most exposed. Lao PDR and Myanmar are also subject to additional tariffs of 45% or more, but their direct exports to the US are small (below 4%). Further analysis is required to account for the GVC as well as other relevant criteria, including types of products exported, existing products and extent of market diversification.

While large countries have the capacity to undertake the detailed analyses required to inform policy decisions in a fast-evolving trade policy environment, smaller developing countries often face a critical shortage of human and financial resources. Tools such as the online Trade Intelligence and Negotiation Adviser (TINA) can, however, help address this gap. TINA, which was developed by ESCAP — and now with ECA — to support countries with bilateral trade negotiations, is a readily available tool that countries can use to analyze the impact of the recent tariff hikes on their trade flows.

Using the TINA tariff simulator, we have assessed the exposure of Asia-Pacific economies to the new April 2 US tariffs at the product level (HS6 level). Many of the countries in the table above could lose over 72% — and up to 94% — of their direct exports to the US. Detailed results are available at https://tinyurl.com/2cksvndx.

Users can use the simulator to conduct quick assessments of new tariffs (including retaliatory ones) on trade and identify the most affected sectors.

We are also pilot testing a national TINA in Cambodia and increasingly leveraging AI to make the tool accessible to a wider range of users. Cambodia TINA provides further insights by looking at third-party impacts (i.e., the impact of tariffs on Vietnam) as well as the effects of different trade policy scenarios using input/output tables. This analysis, for example, shows that tariffs imposed by the United States could reduce Cambodia’s output by as much as 13%. Combining this with labor data shows that more than 400,000 Cambodian workers may lose their jobs if the new tariffs are implemented, with more than 70% of them female (the textiles sector being traditionally female dominated, is particularly heavily impacted, with output falling by 45%). Forthcoming analysis using ESCAP’s RIVA (Regional Integration and Value Chain Analyzer) will provide an understanding of the pass-through tariff exposure, where countries are indirectly affected due to regional production networks. Preliminary findings suggest that both advanced and developing countries in the region which are more integrated into global and regional value chains, will experience significant pass-through effects.

As countries consider policy actions to respond to this dynamic trade environment, keeping channels of communication open between countries and with the private sector will remain essential. Pending a more stable trade policy environment, countries may strive to accelerate their trade digitalization efforts, taking advantage of the UN treaty on cross-border paperless trade facilitation in Asia and the Pacific to cut trade costs. They may also focus on expanding trade in services, including travel and digitally delivered services, which have so far been left out of trade tensions. They may consider strategic diversification of their trade baskets and destination markets and enter into new trade and investment agreements which help them mitigate the adverse impacts and leverage new opportunities.

Rupa Chanda is the director of Trade, Investment and Innovation Division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific or ESCAP. Alexey Kravchenko is the ESCAP economic affairs officer; Witada Anukoonwattaka is the economic affairs officer, Trade, Investment and Innovation Division; and Yann Duval is the chief of the Trade Policy and Facilitation Section, Trade, Investment and Innovation Division.