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World falling behind on environment, health and hunger goals — UN report

A PROP depicting a water tap with cascading plastic bottles is displayed by activists near the Shaw Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, April 23, 2024. — REUTERS

SINGAPORE — The world is way off track on most of the sustainable development targets agreed in 2015, such as tackling poverty and hunger, says a United Nations (UN) report which cites funding shortfalls, geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The UN’s annual Sustainable Development Report ranks the performance of its 193 member states in implementing 17 wide-ranging “sustainable development goals” (SDGs), which also include improving access to education and health care, providing clean energy and protecting biodiversity.

It found that none of the 17 goals were on course to be met by 2030, with most targets showing “limited or a reversal of progress.” It urged countries to address chronic funding shortfalls and also revamp the United Nations system itself.

“What this report is showing is that even before the pandemic hit, progress was already too slow,” said Guillaume Lafortune, Vice President at the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and lead author of the report.

“Once the pandemic hit, and other crises — including military conflicts — then it is a story of stagnation.”

The report identified the tackling of hunger, the creation of sustainable cities and the protection of biodiversity on land and water as particular areas of weakness. Political goals like press freedom have also seen a “reversal of progress.”

It said Finland, Sweden and Denmark ranked at the top of the list of countries, and China has also made faster than average progress, but the world’s poorest countries have fallen further behind.

Mr. Lafortune said developing countries needed more access to international finance, adding that institutions like credit rating agencies should be encouraged to take a country’s long-term environmental and economic wellbeing into consideration, rather than just its short-term liquidity.

The report also assessed countries on their willingness to cooperate globally through UN institutions. The United States was ranked in last place.

“A large majority of countries are supportive of collaborating… but there are a number of great powers that do not play by the rules of the game,” said Mr. Lafortune. — Reuters

Global central banks recalibrate as the big policy easing of 2024 fizzles

REUTERS

WASHINGTON — Six months ago the world’s major central banks were primed for a move that anyone with a credit card or hoping to buy a home or run a business would cheer: A global shift to lower interest rates that would make borrowing cheaper and loans more available across the board.

Rate cuts are “a topic of discussion out in the world and also a discussion for us,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference last December, when the mood among investors was giddy over the prospect of looser financial conditions, and organizations like the International Monetary Fund worried that Mr. Powell and company would jump the gun, cut rates too fast, and undermine efforts to tame inflation.

Those fears were misplaced, it turns out.

The joint easing of monetary policy that appeared imminent at the end of 2023 has largely fizzled as major central banks confronted inflation that proved more persistent than expected, and economic and wage growth that proved more resilient.

Some modest steps have been made, including initial cuts this month by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada.

But that was largely to deliver on a promise made when inflation seemed to be falling fast, and the mood in Frankfurt, London, Washington and elsewhere has since shifted from the central bank version of “start your engines” to something more akin to “hold your horses.”

After rapidly raising interest rates in 2022 and 2023 to fight inflation, the initial move to loosen policy will be “consequential,” Mr. Powell said at a press conference last week when new projections from Fed policymakers showed them anticipating only a single quarter-percentage-point rate cut by the end of the year, down from the three projected in December and March.

“When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening and financial market conditions,” Mr. Powell said. “You want to get it right.”

BUMPS ALONG THE WAY
Most economists polled by Reuters now expect only one or two Fed rate cuts this year instead of the four seen in a survey last December, before Mr. Powell surprised markets by suggesting a pivot to lower rates would come relatively soon. But economists have been more consistent in their views than market pricing.

Economists polled by Reuters six months ago expected the Bank of England (BoE) to wait until the third quarter to cut borrowing costs, in line with current nearly-unanimous expectations for a move in August. Market pricing back in December, meanwhile, implied a first cut in May followed by three more over the year.

While headline inflation has tumbled to close to the BoE’s 2% target, it was much higher than expected in the key services sector in April, and 6% annual wage growth in May remained roughly double the level consistent with the target.

Accordingly, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold in its last policy meeting of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s term — meaning that the move towards lower borrowing costs will await Britain’s next government instead.

Economists’ predictions for the ECB’s first move have also held up, correctly forecasting a cut in June. But again, market pricing has shifted dramatically: back in December it implied 140 basis points of cuts in the year ahead, starting in March. Now market prices barely correspond to one further rate cut this year.

ECB policymakers, however, have long warned of “bumps in the road” as they bring inflation back to target and — by indicating early on that the first cut would not come until June — signaled markets might have been getting ahead of themselves.

Those “bumps” may now include how markets have been unnerved by French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold a snap parliamentary election that could in usher in a far-right government in Paris next month.

But for now, ECB President Christine Lagarde and her team remain broadly confident that inflation will still tick down to the 2% target by the end of 2025.

“Central banks are managing the trade-off between inflation and economic growth,” aware that overly restrictive policy could undermine a fragile recovery in the euro zone economy, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno told Reuters in an interview.

“In the end, the difference between now and a few months ago is not so big. The disinflation story is still intact,” the Portuguese central bank governor said.

NO VICTORY DECLARATION
As always, managing expectations is part of the story.

Back in December when the three-cuts-for-2024 outlook first appeared in Fed policymaker projections, Mr. Powell in his post-meeting press conference cautioned that “no one is declaring victory” over inflation. But the general tenor of his remarks — with references to “real” and “great” progress being made on inflation — appear to have cemented views that rate cuts were about to commence.

From one perspective, while the first cut may as Mr. Powell said last week be “consequential,” the symbolic opening of an expected steady decline in borrowing costs, the exact timing may be less so in terms of its macroeconomic effect. 

The current strict language about cuts, from Mr. Powell at least, may even be more about managing expectations than they are about the actual outlook – of keeping the door open for rates to stay where they are longer again still than anticipated.

Data just before and after the Fed’s meeting last week pointed strongly to weakening price pressures, and investors have largely sloughed off Mr. Powell’s comments and Fed policymakers’ new projections to stick with bets that rates will be lowered beginning in September.

Still, the slide has been a big one, with major central banks now allowing “restrictive” monetary policy to weigh on banks, businesses and households for months longer than anticipated. Some worry that may trigger a breaking point.

“Continued restrictive policy risks pushing labor demand down too much and pushing unemployment higher than the current 4%, which the Fed is projecting for the end of the year,” Nick Bunker, the economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in response to last week’s Fed decision. “The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can’t last forever.” — Reuters

Young British royals say ‘We love you, Papa’ in Father’s Day message

X.COM/KENSINGTONROYAL

LONDON — The three young children of British heir-to-the-throne Prince William and his wife Kate released a Father’s Day message and photograph on Sunday, saying “We love you, Papa.”

The photo shows the three children, Prince George, 10, Princess Charlotte, 9, and Prince Louis, 6, hugging William on a beach, with the photograph taken from behind as they all look out to sea.

The caption says the photo was taken by Kate and reads: “We love you, Papa. Happy Father’s Day,” followed by two red hearts and G, C & L.

The photograph was released a day after Kate, Britain’s Princess of Wales, was seen in public for the first time since she revealed she was undergoing treatment for cancer.

Kate, William and the children joined King Charles and other members of the royal family on the balcony of Buckingham Palace after watching a military parade to celebrate the monarch’s official birthday.

The princess, 42, spent two weeks in hospital in January after she underwent major abdominal surgery. Two months later she announced in a video message that tests had revealed the presence of cancer and she was receiving preventative chemotherapy.

She is still undergoing treatment, but she said in a statement on Friday that she was able to attend the “Trooping the Color” event because she was making good progress, although she noted that she was “not out of the woods” yet.

In a separate post on Sunday, the couple shared a photograph of William as a child playing football with his father, Charles. — Reuters

As Thailand moves to pass same-sex marriage law, couple wait to tie the knot

PIXABAY 

BANGKOK — Thai lesbian couple Vorawan “Beaut” Ramwan and Anticha “An” Sangchai are patiently waiting for the passage of their country’s same-sex marriage law so that they can cement their relationship after four years together.

“Once the law comes into effect, we will sign our marriage license,” said Anticha, a university lecturer. “We’ve been waiting for this for a long time.”

The marriage equality bill is expected to pass through its final reading in Thailand’s upper house of parliament on Tuesday, said Wallop Tangkananuruk, chairman of the senate committee for the bill.

It will then be sent to the king for approval and come into force 120 days after being published in the Royal Gazette, making Thailand the third territory in Asia after Taiwan and Nepal to legalise same-sex marriage.

The Southeast Asian nation, known for its vibrant cultural scene and tolerance, has long been a popular destination for LGBTQ+ travellers.

Thousands of LGBTQ+ revellers and activists gathered for a parade through the streets of Bangkok this month, joined by Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who came dressed in a rainbow shirt to celebrate Pride Month.

For Anticha and Vorawan, marriage equality represents more than a ceremony. It is a marker that their relationship is recognized and granted the same legal protections as heterosexual couples, they said.

“The passage of this law is a (social) movement, pushing the boundaries by acknowledging our existence, “ Anticha said.

The law also formalizes their ability to look after one another legally, said Vorawan.

“It would give us a more sense of security for our lives,” said the 32-year-old nurse. “It’s something that we’ve never had before.” — Reuters

China’s factory output disappoints; property sector stuck in doldrums

REUTERS

BEIJING — China’s May industrial output lagged expectations and a slowdown in the property sector showed no signs of easing despite policy support, adding pressure on Beijing to shore up growth.

Apart from retail sales that beat forecasts due to a holiday boost, the flurry of data on Monday was largely downbeat, underscoring a bumpy recovery for the world’s second-largest economy.

May industrial output grew 5.6% from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, slowing from the 6.7% pace in April and below expectations for a 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts.

However, retail sales, a gauge of consumption, in May rose 3.7% on year, accelerating from a 2.3% rise in April and marking the quickest growth since February. Analysts had expected a 3.0% expansion due to a five-day public holiday earlier in the month.

“May activity data and our high-frequency trackers for the first half of June suggest significant cross-sector divergences remain in the economy – strong exports and manufacturing activity, relatively stable consumption, and still-depressed property activity,”Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

Fixed asset investment rose 4.0% in the first five months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 4.2% rise. It grew 4.2% in the January to April period.

Manufacturing investment in the first five months showed robust growth of 9.6%, underpinned by China’s emphasis for “quality growth” through technological breakthroughs and innovation this year.

But economists have warned that rising trade tensions with the West over China’s so-called over-capacity may impose more challenges to Chinese solar and electric vehicle producers.

Private sector investment grew 0.1% in January-May, down from 0.3% in the first four months, pointing to still weak confidence among private businesses. By comparison, investment in the state sector jumped 7.1% in the first five months.

Asian share markets were mostly softer following the mixed data with the Chinese blue chip CSI300 index slipping 0.2%.

EXPORTS-LED RECOVERY
Exports helped bolster the economy, with steel and aluminium output posting sharp jumps in May.

“Exports drove industrial growth and manufacturing investment significantly, but real estate weakness still hit household consumption and investment,” said ZhaoPeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ.

China’s property market slump, high local government debt and deflationary pressure remain heavy drags on economic activity. The latest figures point to an uneven growth that reinforces calls for more fiscal and monetary policy support.

With banks facing narrowing interest margins and a weakening currency remaining key constraints limiting Beijing’s scope to ease monetary policy, China’s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Monday.

“We still see the likelihood of a cut to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) this month, particularly on the 5-year tenor, as this will help banks to retain households’ mortgage loans,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.

But chief China economist at Citi Yu Xiangrong expects a total 20-basis-point policy rate reduction in the second half of this year, but no LPR cut on June 20.

PROPERTY DATA WORSEN
China’s economy grew a faster-than-expected 5.3% in the first quarter, but analysts say the government’s annual growth target of around 5% is ambitious as the property sector remains in the doldrums.

Property investment fell 10.1% year-on-year in January-May, deepening from a decline of 9.8% in January-April. 

New home prices slipped 0.7% in May from April, marking the 11th straight month-on-month decline and steepest drop since October 2014, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data.

The central bank last month announced a relending program for affordable housing to accelerate sales of unsold housing stock.

NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua told a media briefing on Monday that the property market is undergoing adjustment and it will take some time for policy measures to kick in.

The property sector, which accounted for around a quarter of economic output before the downturn, has been hit by a regulatory crackdown as well as demographic and broad economic pressures. The government has launched a slew of measures to help homebuyers, such as easing mortgage rules.

But tepid demand at home has kept a lid on consumer prices as confidence remains low in the face of a protracted property sector crisis. New bank lending rebounded far less than expected in May and some key money gauges hit record lows.

The job market overall was steady. The nationwide survey-based jobless rate hit 5.0% in May, the same as that in April.

Beijing has vowed to create more jobs linked to major projects, promote domestic demand and pledged greater fiscal stimulus to shore up growth. Reuters

AI is not a magic wand – it has built-in problems that are difficult to fix and can be dangerous

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Disclaimer: This asset – including all text, audio and imagery – is provided by The Conversation. Reuters Connect has not verified or endorsed the material, which is being made available to professional media customers to facilitate the free flow of global news and information.

 

by , Associate Professor in Computational Intelligence, Charles Darwin University

 

By now, all of us have heard and read a lot about artificial intelligence (AI). You’ve likely used some of the countless AI tools that are becoming available. For some, AI feels like a magic wand that predicts the future.

But AI is not perfect. A supermarket meal planner in Aotearoa New Zealand gave customers poisonous recipes, a New York City chatbot advised people to break the law, and Google’s AI Overview is telling people to eat rocks.

At its core, an AI tool is a particular system that addresses a particular problem. With any AI system, we should match our expectations to its abilities – and many of those come down to how the AI was built.

Let’s explore some inherent shortcomings of AI systems.

One of the inherent issues for all AI systems is that they are not 100% accurate in real-world settings. For example, a predictive AI system will be trained using data points from the past.

If the AI then comes across something new – not similar to anything in the training data – it most likely won’t be able to make the correct decision.

As a hypothetical example, let’s take a military plane equipped with an AI-powered autopilot system. This system will function thanks to its training “knowledge base”. But an AI really isn’t a magic wand, it’s just mathematical computations. An adversary could create obstacles the plane AI cannot “see” because they are not in the training data, leading to potentially catastrophic consequences.

Unfortunately, there is not much we can do about this problem apart from trying to train the AI for all possible circumstances that we know of. This can sometimes be an insurmountable task.

You may have heard about AI making biased decisions. Usually, bias happens when we have unbalanced data. In simple terms, this means that when training the AI system, we are showing it too many examples of one type of outcome and very few of another type.

Let’s take the example of an AI system trained to predict the likelihood a given individual will commit a crime. If the crime data used for training the system mostly contains people from group A (say, a particular ethnicity) and very few from group B, the system won’t learn about both groups equally.

As a result, its predictions for group A will make it seem these people are more likely to commit crimes compared to people from group B. If the system is used uncritically, the presence of this bias can have severe ethical consequences.

Thankfully, developers can address this issue by “balancing” the data set. This can involve different approaches, including the use of synthetic data – computer-generated, pre-labelled data built for testing and training AI that has checks built into it to protect against bias.

Another issue with AI can arise when it’s been trained “offline” and isn’t up to date with the dynamics of the problem it is meant to work on.

A simple example would be an AI system developed to predict daily temperature in a city. Its training data contain all the past information on temperature data for this location.

After the AI has finished training and is deployed, let’s say a severe climactic event disrupts the usual weather dynamics. Since the AI system making the predictions was trained on data that didn’t include this disruption, its predictions will become increasingly inaccurate.

The way to solve this issue is training the AI “online”, meaning it is regularly shown the latest temperature data while being used to predict temperatures.

This sounds like a great solution, but there are a few risks associated with online training. We can leave the AI system to train itself using the latest data, but it may get out of control.

Fundamentally, this can happen because of chaos theory, which, in simple terms, means most AI systems are sensitive to initial conditions. When we don’t know what data the system will come across, we can’t know how to tune the initial conditions to control potential instabilities in the future.

Sometimes, the training data just isn’t fit for purpose. For example, it may not have the qualities the AI system needs to perform whatever task we are training it to do.

To use an extremely simplified example, imagine an AI tool for identifying “tall” and “short” people. In the training data, should a person who is 170cm be labelled tall or short? If tall, what will the system return when it comes across someone who is 169.5cm? (Perhaps the best solution would be to add a “medium” label.)

The above may seem trivial, but issues with data labelling or poor data sets can have problematic consequences if the AI system is involved in medical diagnosis, for example.

Fixing this problem is not easy, since identifying the relevant pieces of information requires a great deal of knowledge and experience. Bringing on board a subject matter expert in the data collection process can be a great solution, as it can guide the developers on what types of data to even include to begin with.

As (future) users of AI and technology, it is important for all of us to be aware of these issues to broaden our perspective on AI and its prediction outcomes concerning different aspects of our lives. – Reuters

China cbank leaves key policy rate unchanged as expected

A GENERAL VIEW shows Beijing’s skyline on a sunny day in this file photo. — REUTERS

 – China’s central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Monday when rolling over maturing medium-term loans, and drained some funds from the banking system.

 

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

The steady MLF rate comes in line with market expectations, as narrowing interest margins and a weakening currency remain key constraints limiting Beijing’s scope to ease monetary policy to support the world’s second-largest economy.

The MLF rate serves as a guide to the loan prime rates (LPRs) and markets mostly use the MLF rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmarks. The monthly fixing of LPRs is due on Thursday.

 

BY THE NUMBERS

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 182 billion yuan ($25.08 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans CNMLF1YRRP=PBOC to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.50% from the previous operation.

In a Reuters poll of 31 market watchers, 30, or 97%, of all respondents expected the PBOC to leave the interest rate on MLF rate unchanged.

Net interest margin, which measures lenders’ profitability, narrowed to 1.54% in the quarter from 1.69% in the previous three months.

China’s yuan has lost more than 2.1% against a resurgent US dollar so far this year, pressured by its relative low yields versus other economies.

 

CONTEXT

China still has room to lower interest rates, but its ability to adjust monetary policy faces internal and external constraints, the official Financial News said, citing industry experts.

 

KEY QUOTES

“The slow pace of government bond issuance and weak private sector credit demand have led to ample front-end liquidity recently, reducing the urgency for the PBOC to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in the near term,” economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

“We push back our monetary easing forecast by one quarter, and now expect the PBOC to deliver one 25-basis-point RRR cut in Q3 and one 10-basis-point policy rate cut in Q4.” – Reuters

Global audiences suspicious of AI-powered newsrooms, report finds

UPKLYAK-FREEPIK

Global concerns about the use of AI in news production and misinformation are growing, a report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism found, posing fresh challenges to newsrooms already struggling to engage audiences.

The institute’s annual Digital News Report published on Monday, which this year is based on surveys of nearly 100,000 people across 47 countries, offers a picture of the hurdles news media faces in lifting revenue and sustaining business.

Newsrooms globally are working to address a new challenge with generative artificial intelligence, as tech giants and startups like Google and OpenAI build tools that can offer summaries of information and siphon traffic from news websites.

But the report found that consumers are suspicious about the use of AI to create news content, particularly for sensitive subjects such as politics.

According to the survey, 52% of US respondents and 63% of UK respondents said they would be uncomfortable with news produced mostly with AI. The report surveyed 2,000 people in each country, noting that respondents were more comfortable with behind-the-scenes uses of AI to make journalists’ work more efficient.

“It was surprising to see the level of suspicion,” said Nic Newman, senior research associate at the Reuters Institute and lead author of the Digital News Report. “People broadly had fears about what might happen to content reliability and trust.”

Concerns about false news content online rose by three percentage points from last year, with 59% of survey respondents saying they were worried. This figure was higher in South Africa and the U.S. at 81% and 72%, respectively, as both countries hold elections this year, the report said.

Another challenge facing news organizations is the general unwillingness of audiences to pay for news subscriptions. Following some growth during the pandemic, 17% of respondents across 20 countries said they paid for online news, a figure that has been unchanged for the past three years, the report said.

A significant proportion of news subscribers in the U.S. were also likely to be paying discounted rates due to trials or promotions, with 46% paying less than the full price for their subscriptions.

 

TURNING TO ALTERNATIVES

News influencers are playing a bigger role than mainstream media organizations in delivering the news to users of popular online platforms like TikTok.

In a survey of more than 5,600 TikTok users who said they used the app for news, 57% said they mostly paid attention to individual personalities, versus 34% who said they mainly followed journalists or news brands.

The findings show that newsrooms need to build a direct relationship with their audiences while also “strategically using the platforms to connect with people who are trickier to reach, like younger audiences,” Newman said. “We see that these influencers have a bigger role on the platforms.”

Vitus “V” Spehar, a TikTok creator with 3.1 million followers, was one news personality cited by some of the survey respondents. Spehar has become known for their unique style of delivering the top headlines of the day while laying on the floor under their desk, which they previously told Reuters is intended to offer a more gentle perspective on current events and contrast with a traditional news anchor who sits at a desk.

The Digital News Report surveyed people in the US, UK, France, Argentina and Brazil, asking them to name up to three mainstream or alternative accounts they follow for the news.

The top 10 individuals cited by respondents in the U.S. are most known for offering political commentary rather than original newsgathering, the report noted. These personalities included Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News anchor, Joe Rogan, who hosts the top podcast on Spotify and David Pakman, a progressive talk radio host.

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism is funded by the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the philanthropic arm of Thomson Reuters. – Reuters

Chinese outbound travel recovery lags due to costs, visa snags

FREEPIK

 – A recovery in Chinese overseas travel from the COVID-19 pandemic is fading as rising costs and difficulties in securing visas cement a preference for local and short-haul destinations.

The delay in a revival to pre-COVID levels by China’s outbound travelers, the world’s top spenders on international tourism and airlines, is hitting travel-related companies, hotels and retailers globally.

Eighteen months after China dropped strict zero-COVID policies and reopened its borders, the recovery in overseas travel is lagging behind market expectations and the shape of Chinese travel is changing, with a surge in domestic trips.

Pressured by a prolonged property crisis, high unemployment and a gloomy outlook in the world’s second-biggest economy, Chinese consumers have become more frugal since the pandemic, prompting discount wars on everything from travel to cars, coffee and clothes.

Chinese people took 87 million trips abroad last year, down 40% from pre-COVID 2019, and industry observers say the pace has slowed since the Lunar New Year in February. China’s travelers spent 24% less last year than in 2019, while US travelers’ spending was up 14%, according to UN Tourism data.

The Chinese lag is bad news for countries like France, Australia and the US, which were among the top destinations for Chinese travelers before the pandemic.

Liu Simin, vice president of the tourism branch of the China Society for Futures Studies research institute, forecasts China’s international travel might not recover to pre-pandemic levels for another five years.

“The recovery is a lot slower than expected,” Mr. Liu said. “The devaluation of the Chinese yuan combined with inflation in the US and Europe is a double blow.”

The Chinese currency has fallen more than 2% against the dollar since the start of the year, raising costs in yuan terms for Chinese travelers abroad.

Consultancy Oliver Wyman last month pushed its estimates for China’s international travel recovery to late 2025, half a year later than it forecast last year.

“I would actually argue that consumers are even more cost-conscious than last year, and you’ll also see that feed into travel trends,” said Imke Wouters, Hong Kong-based partner at Oliver Wyman.

To be sure, overseas travel is rebounding, with Chinese travelers again the world’s top spenders on international tourism last year after falling behind the United States in 2022, according to UN Tourism data.

This summer 8% of flights at Chinese airports have been international, up from just 1% in 2022, according to aviation data provider OAG.

 

FLIP TO DOMESTIC TRAVEL

That recovery, however, is overshadowed by the surge in domestic trips, which hit a record 295 million during the five-day May Day holiday, up more than 20% from 2019, official data showed.

Domestic airlines seats were up 16% in May from the same month in 2019, while international flights were down 30%, Cirium data shows.

Wouters at Oliver Wyman said 40% of those who travelled abroad in 2023 for the first time since borders reopened had decided not to travel internationally again this year, mainly due to inconvenience and long visa processing times for many European destinations.

Beijing resident Wang Shu, 38, vacationed domestically after cancelling a trip to France because he could not get a visa, despite trying to book a visa appointment months ahead.

“I tried booking the interview in late March, as I planned to attend the French Open tennis in late May, but the earliest date that I could book was June 19,” Mr. Wang said.

Mr. Wang instead vacationed in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province, known for its spicy food.

“The food was great, I watched a concert and spent one-tenth of the money I’d have spent in France,” he said.

Australia’s top source of tourists before COVID, China is now number four, with arrivals down 53% in March from March 2019, said Margy Osmond, chief executive of Tourism & Transport Forum Australia.

Chinese travelers to France, the most visited country in the world, have reached only 28.5% of 2019 levels, according to airport operator ADP.

Capacity on US-China routes remains down more than 80% from 2019 levels, weighed by intensifying bilateral political tensions. The US National Travel and Tourism Office expects Chinese tourism to the US to recover fully only in 2026.

By contrast, countries with visa-free policies have received strong growth in Chinese visitors.

These include Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where flight capacity has also increased.

Switzerland, growing in popularity with high-end travelers on Trip.com, boasts a seven-day visa process, said Jane Sun, CEO of Trip.com Group.

Japan has also received a surge in Chinese travelers this year, boosted by a plunge in the yen’s value.

“We are not just seeing a market re-growing, we are seeing a market re-shaping,” Gary Bowerman, director of tourism intelligence firm Check-In Asia, told an OAG webinar last month. – Reuters

Biden slams Supreme Court at $30 mln fundraiser with Obama, Clooney, Julia Roberts

U.S. President Joe Biden holds a campaign rally ahead of the state’s Democratic presidential primary, in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. Feb. 4, 2024. — REUTERS

 – President Joe Biden slammed the US Supreme Court as “out of kilter” at a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles on Saturday with former President Barack Obama and top Hollywood celebrities that has raised over $30 million.

Late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel began by showing a video montage contrasting Biden’s record with that of his predecessor and current Republican challenger Donald Trump. He drew cheers from the audience at a packed Peacock Theater in downtown Los Angeles, where Hollywood celebrities George Clooney and Julia Roberts were among the guests.

Mr. Biden, a Democrat who has frequently denounced specific decisions but resisted a full-throated attack on the court itself, said on Saturday “the Supreme Court has never been as out of kilter as it is today.”

“The fact of the matter is that there has never been a court that is this far out of step,” Mr. Biden said. He noted that conservative Justice Clarence Thomas had said the court, which overturned the half-century-old federal right to abortion, should reconsider such things as in vitro fertilization and contraception.

Mr. Trump nominated three of the six conservatives who control the nine-member court. He and Mr. Biden are in a tight rematch race for the Nov. 5 election.

If Trump is elected again, Mr. Biden said, he “is likely to have two new Supreme Court nominees.”

“The idea that if he’s reelected he’s going to appoint two more who are flying flags upside down… I think it is one of the scariest parts,” Mr. Biden said.

He was referring to a recent controversy involving Justice Samuel Alito, who allowed flags associated with the movement to reverse Trump’s 2020 loss to Biden – including an upside-down American flag – to fly outside his homes in Virginia and New Jersey.

Democratic lawmakers, citing the flag displays, have said Alito should recuse himself from a case involving Mr. Trump’s claim of presidential immunity from prosecution on federal criminal charges relating to his efforts to overturn the 2020 results.

Since Mr. Biden took office, the court’s conservative majority has also restricted affirmative action, gay rights, gun control and environmental regulation. It has blocked the president’s agenda on immigration, student loans, vaccine mandates and climate change.

Mr. Obama said “the power of the Supreme Court is determined by elections. What we’re seeing now is a byproduct of 2016” when Mr. Trump was elected. “Hopefully we have learned our lesson. Because these elections matter.”

Mr. Obama also invoked Mr. Trump’s felony convictions to applause from the crowd. Trump was convicted by a New York jury on May 30 of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

 

‘LARGEST DEMOCRATIC FUNDRAISER’

The Biden campaign hoped the star-studded event would display strength and momentum despite Biden’s low approval ratings and concerns about the age of the president, who is 81.

“This will be one of the biggest fundraisers we’ve had,” said Ajay Jain Bhutoria, deputy finance chair at the Democratic National Committee. A Biden campaign spokeswoman said “$28 mln heading into President Biden’s LA fundraiser – and counting. This is the largest Democratic fundraiser in history.”

The Biden campaign outraised the $26 million a March fundraiser in New York City generated where comedian and TV host Stephen Colbert hosted Mr. Biden, Mr. Obama and former President Bill Clinton. The top-ticket package for the LA event costs $500,000, campaign officials said.

Other celebrities who took the stage at the Saturday event included Jack Black, Jason Bateman, Kathryn Hahn and Sheryl Lee Ralph.

In recent weeks, Mark Hamill of Star Wars fame made a White House briefing room appearance to praise the president, Robert De Niro showed up in lower Manhattan for a press conference at the Biden campaign’s behest and Steven Spielberg has been helping the Biden campaign with storytelling.

Actor Michael Douglas held a fundraiser for the president and artists Queen Latifah, Lenny Kravitz, Lizzo, James Taylor, Christina Aguilera and Barbra Streisand have all performed to help Biden raise money.

Mr. Biden campaign’s fundraising in April lagged Trump’s for the first time, after the former president ramped up his joint operation with the Republican National Committee and headlined high-dollar fundraisers.

Democrats still maintained an overall cash advantage over Mr. Trump and the Biden campaign continues to have a considerably larger war chest.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are tied in national polls with less than five months to go before the election, while Mr. Trump has the edge in the battleground states that will decide the election, recent polls show. On economic issues like inflation, Mr. Trump scores higher with voters overall than Mr. Biden.

Democrats have long counted on the liberal Los Angeles area as a rich source of financial backing. Republicans often decry Democrats nationwide as funded by Hollywood elites and California liberals.

But the state’s donors bankroll presidential campaigns on both sides of the aisle. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have both raised more in the state for their reelection bids than anywhere else, according to fundraising disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Mr. Biden raised $24 million through April 30 in California, and Mr. Trump $11.7 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

The president was largely unable to host high-dollar Hollywood fundraisers for much of 2023 because of industry strikes. But since they were resolved, Mr. Biden has headlined several fundraisers in the state, including one in December where top tickets approached $1 million. – Reuters

Philex Mining Corp. to hold Annual Stockholders’ Meeting on July 9 at Grand Hyatt Manila

 

 


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Peso weakness ‘temporary’ — BSP

A WORKER counts Philippine peso bills inside a money changer in Manila in this file photo. — REUTERS

By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) sees the recent peso weakness as temporary amid the expected delay in the US Federal Reserve’s policy easing.

“We also have to consider that this depreciation of the peso, we view it as temporary given the monetary policy stance of the US, particularly of delaying the reduction in the policy rate of the US. And we believe this is only temporary,” BSP Senior Assistant Governor Iluminada T. Sicat told a press briefing on Friday.

The peso closed at P58.65 per dollar on Friday, weakening by seven centavos from its P58.58 finish on Thursday.

Week on week, the local unit declined by six centavos from its P58.52 finish on June 7.

The Fed on Wednesday left its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.5% range. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said any rate cuts would wait until the central bank is more confident that inflation is headed toward the Fed’s 2% goal, or sees unexpected deterioration in the labor market, Reuters reported.

Fed officials are now projecting only one rate cut this year compared with previous expectations of three.

Ms. Sicat said that the peso will be impacted by foreign exchange (FX) supply and demand.

“We are anticipating our balance of payments (BoP) for 2024 to be at a surplus of $1.6 billion. Meaning to say there will be more supply of FX. We are anticipating more supply of FX in 2024 than what is being demanded.”

The BSP last week revised its BoP surplus forecast to $1.6 billion or 0.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year, higher than its previous estimate of $700 million.

“Any depreciation of the peso would require more dollars for imports, for instance. In terms of BoP, that would require more dollar outflow,” Ms. Sicat said.

“We believe the current depreciation of the peso is merely sentiment-driven but mainly the direction or path of the FX rate will be determined largely by what (are) the fundamental developments,” she added.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said that the peso’s recent performance is a case of a “strong dollar” amid tensions in the Middle East.

In mid-May, the peso sank to the P58-per-dollar level for the first time in 18 months or since November 2022.

The BSP said it has intervened in “modest” amounts to keep markets orderly and control FX speculation.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee expects the peso to range from P55-P57 a dollar this year.

IMPACT ON LOCAL FIRMS
Meanwhile, Leonardo A. Lanzona, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University noted the impact of the peso weakness on local firms.

“The problem is not the depreciation, but how resilient are the firms in the face of a lower peso value. Indeed, the other currencies are also falling as a result of a stronger dollar. But the larger conglomerates in the Philippines are more exposed to this shock,” he said in an e-mail.

“This group has been among the most active spender and borrower of dollar-linked instruments over the past decade, either by choice (lower cost) or necessity (size of domestic funding sources).”

Mr. Lanzona said that firms in other Southeast Asian countries would be able to “stand up” to the dollar, but Philippine firms may face difficulties and could be “unable to take advantage of the opportunities created by the depreciation.”

“Because of this, as well as the consequent inflation, the demand for the Philippine peso would continue to decline. In effect, greater depreciation would be expected,” he added.

Mr. Lanzona said that the central bank would need to defend the peso through direct monetary intervention or keep interest rates high. “In both cases, growth will be compromised.”

John Paolo R. Rivera, president and chief economist at Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc., said that the BSP has the power to manage any excessive depreciation.

“The BSP has maintained sufficient dollar reserves to do this. It needs to maintain a healthy balance between the export growth and import decline due to currency depreciation,” he said in a Viber message.

Gross international reserves rose by 1.8% to $104.48 billion as of end-May from a quarter ago. This was the highest level of reserves in over two years.