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China Vice Premier calls for action to secure autumn grain harvest

REUTERS

BEIJING — China’s Vice Premier has urged local authorities to minimize agricultural losses, and ensure a robust autumn grain harvest after heavy rains from Typhoon Gaemi lashed its largest wheat-growing Henan province.

Provinces such as central Henan have braced for severe rainstorm and floods recently after Typhoon Gaemi made a landfall in late July, which adversely impacted agricultural production.

During his visit to Henan, Liu Guozhong emphasized the critical need for disaster prevention and mitigation to protect the autumn grain crops and achieve a successful harvest, state news agency Xinhua reported on Thursday.

He also called for enhanced efforts to promote grain and oil crop yields to bolster national food security, according to Xinhua.

Henan, known as China’s “granary,” produces about one-third of the country’s wheat. A reduced wheat harvest could lead China, the world’s largest wheat consumer, to seek additional supplies overseas.

Although the summer wheat harvest in Henan is mostly complete, hot temperatures and rainy weather have raised concerns about the quality of stored wheat, prompting some farmers to sell their supplies.

China’s state grains stockpiler Sinograin said on Wednesday the firm and its subsidiaries will increase the scale of domestic wheat storage to support farmers. — Reuters

PhilHealth’s cash sweep is just the tip of the iceberg

PHILIPPINE STAR/MICHAEL VARCAS

At the recent Senate hearing conducted by the Committee on Health and Demography, Department of Finance (DoF) Secretary Ralph Recto once again justified the transfer of PhilHealth and other Government-Owned or -Controlled Corporation (GOCC) funds as a measure that will enable the Marcos administration to ramp up its revenue and growth targets for the year. He added that the “Unprogrammed Appropriations” is neither a discretionary nor confidential fund, and that the excess GOCC funds will only be used to finance priority programs and projects listed under UA — no more, no less.

The cash sweep of unused GOCC funds to finance the Unprogrammed Appropriations has been explicitly framed by the Marcos administration as fiscal prudence. The end justifies the means. The underlying message is that taxpayers should trust the Marcos administration and its allies in Congress to have the best interest of Filipinos in mind. Let the DoF carry out its mandate. They are, after all, just following a directive of Congress. The planned transfer of the P90-billion PhilHealth funds and other GOCC funds to the National Treasury is legal. The tax-paying public should not bother too much about the technicalities of the Unprogrammed Appropriations.

Much has already been said about PhilHealth’s P90-billion fund transfer. In the last few weeks, health reform advocates have boldly opposed the implementation of DoF Memorandum Circular No. 003-2024. The PhilHealth fund transfer is just the tip of the iceberg in relation to the larger issue of fiscal transparency and accountability under the current administration.

How exactly did the directive to sweep the cash of GOCCs come about? What does it have to do with the Unprogrammed Appropriations? How did the government end up with P731.4 billion in Unprogrammed Appropriations? Who called the shots?

The national budget tells a different story than what the current administration would like us to believe. The Bicameral Conference Committee or Bicam (or what’s come to be known as “the third house”) that finalized the 2024 General Appropriations Act is at the center of this fiscal controversy. While guns are pointed at the DoF for implementing the special provision of the Unprogrammed Appropriations, the Bicam Chairs seem to have gone scot-free, unnamed, and unscathed even as health advocates have filed a case in the Supreme Court. The Bicam is primarily accountable for the authorizing of the sweep of GOCC funds. What was the motivation?

Contrary to DoF’s narrative, the goal is not to maximize the government’s fiscal space nor to accelerate growth via government spending. If that was the case, then the Bicam should have kept a majority of the “unprogrammed” items under the Programmed Appropriations. The national budget consists of three types of appropriations: a.) programmed appropriations which have guaranteed cash cover, b.) unprogrammed appropriations which are stand-by authority to spend, and c.) automatic appropriations for which are provided funds for specific purposes authorized by other laws.

The funding for strategic, big-ticket, and priority programs and projects of government is typically lodged in the Programmed Appropriations precisely because they are factored in the fiscal program. Budget priorities need guaranteed cash cover in order to be implemented. There is no wisdom in putting priority programs and projects under the Unprogrammed Appropriations. By its very nature, Unprogrammed Appropriations are just stand-by appropriations, which can only be tapped if there are new or excess revenues. This is consistent with the constitutional requirement for passing a supplemental budget and has historically been quite difficult to activate. The Bicam, however, found a way to circumvent that by adding unutilized GOCC funds as a source of financing for the bloated Unprogrammed Appropriations.

The bloated “Unprogrammed Appropriations” is a consequence of accommodating pork in the programmed appropriations. Here’s what the Bicam did in the last stretch of budget legislation: The Bicam members deprioritized many programs, activities, and projects by removing them from the programmed appropriations and transferring them into the Unprogrammed Appropriations. These included hundreds of billions of funds for COVID-19 benefits of healthcare workers, the Department of Transportation’s rail program, basic and tertiary education, social protection, military pension, compensation for Marawi siege victims, the prior year’s Local Government Unit (LGU) shares, payment of right-of-way, and many other programs.

So why did the Bicam move priority projects into the Unprogrammed Appropriations? It is to accommodate “pork” in the 2024 national budget and use the Unprogrammed Appropriations as a way to conceal the pork’s magnitude. This is a practice that the Bicam has perfected since the enactment of the 2022 national budget. With hundreds of billions freed up in the programmed appropriations, the Bicam then inserted partisan and pet projects of congressional allies into the programmed appropriations.

The majority of these patronage-driven projects were inserted in the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) budget under two major programs: the Convergence Program which contains local infrastructure projects, and the Flood Control Program. The Flood Control Program grew by a whopping P29 billion, from P215 billion in the proposed version to P245 billion in the enacted version.

With “pork” accommodated in the programmed appropriations, the Bicam had to find a way to finance the Unprogrammed Appropriations, which ballooned from P282 billion to P731 billion. P731 billion worth of Unprogrammed Appropriations would be very difficult to finance from new or excess revenues and/or foreign loans. With elections around the corner, the Bicam knows it could not leave the priority programs and projects of the administration, now placed under the Unprogrammed Appropriations, unfunded.

Thus, it included unutilized GOCC funds as an additional source of financing by way of the special provision of the Unprogrammed Appropriations in the 2024 national budget. This is not the first time the Bicam did this. Rep. Edcel Lagman had already previously alleged that this was a premeditated move by the House Committee on Appropriations Chair Zaldy Co by recommending House Bill No. 915, “An Act Providing Additional Criterion for the Availment of Unprogrammed Appropriations, amending for the Purpose the 2023 General Appropriations Act.” The bill amending the 2023 national budget was railroaded by the House of Representatives in the midst of the deliberations for the 2024 national budget.

Aside from identifying GOCC funds as an additional source of financing, the Bicam inserted a clause in the special provision of the 2024 Unprogrammed Appropriations that reads: “Notwithstanding the foregoing, the order or priority may be MODIFIED to support the funding or urgent or implement-ready projects which are: 1.) based on commitments to international/multilateral organizations or 2.) in furtherance of (i) the Philippine Development Plan, (ii) the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework and (iii) the 8-Point Socio-Economic Agenda and (iv) those that may be identified as key budget priorities.” By expanding the sources of financing to include GOCC funds and its purposes, the “Unprogrammed Appropriations” have morphed into a discretionary fund — like the President’s Contingent Fund.

Secretary Recto’s assertion that the Unprogrammed Appropriations can only fund specific programs and projects listed under it is blatantly wrong and misleading. While there is indeed a list of projects, the special provision does not preclude the Executive branch from using it like a discretionary fund for as long as there is available cash from the GOCCs. The amendments to the Unprogrammed Appropriations ensured that the national budget would favor not only the Speaker and his allies in Congress but also the President.

The whole scheme would probably have gone unnoticed had the Bicam swept less controversial GOCC funds instead of PhilHealth’s initial P20 billion. The public would remain in the dark about the lengths that the Bicam is willing to go to satisfy greed, an act Congress already previously authorized by amending the 2023 national budget.

But no matter how many times Secretary Recto or anyone from the current administration insists that the transfer of GOCC funds is a fiscally prudent measure, remember that this was all a consequence of the excesses of the Bicam. Let us not be deceived. That is not fiscal discipline.

 

Zy-Za Nadine Suzara is an independent public budget analyst and lead convenor of the People’s Budget Coalition. She previously served in the Department of Budget and Management.

The Guest, Batman, and Stormtrooper are Lladró’s newest stars

SPANISH porcelain brand Lladró celebrates both the classic and contemporary in their latest limited-edition figurines — Batman, Stormtrooper, and new renditions of their famed collection, The Guest.

The Valencia-based company is known for its masterfully handcrafted porcelain pieces, each modeled to perfection by their in-house sculptors and artisans. Since their founding in 1953, Lladró’s high-end home decorations and lighting, fashion accessories, and prized statuettes have adorned the homes of many families around the world, even becoming valuable hand-me-downs from one generation to another.

While Lladró is well-loved by vintage connoisseurs for their timeless pieces, they have proved the versatility of their artistry by also taking on more modern designs. The brand has expanded their market to the younger demographic by featuring emblematic figures from pop culture.

All the way from Gotham City and the Galactic Empire, Batman and the Stormtrooper star in Lladró’s latest releases. They follow in the footsteps of countless icons, including Darth Vader, Snoopy, Disney princesses, Mickey and Minnie Mouse, and more.

Meanwhile, The Guest has remained a classic collection since its inception 10 years ago. Considered Lladró’s “most captivating character,” it is among their most famous pieces to date.

THE DARK KNIGHT ARRIVES
Lladró collaborated with Warner Bros. for the first time to honor the 85th anniversary of DC Comics’ caped crusader, Batman. The character debuted in May 1939 in Detective Comics #2, exponentially rising in popularity since. He has starred in countless comic books, novels, films, animated series, and a variety of other media. His latest appearance is in the 2024 game Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League. Lladró’s Batman is the work of Spanish 3D artist Eva Cuerva, who is also behind Lladró’s Star Wars collection.

The sculpture combines matte and glazed tones of black, with a few touches of gold luster to accentuate Batman’s muscular anatomy and the intricacies of his customary superhero uniform. To give justice to his vigilante character, he perches on one of the iconic gargoyles of Gotham City with his cape blowing in the wind.

Like previous pop culture pieces, Batman is a limited-edition Lladró figurine. He is ready to jump into action and into the homes of the lucky 500 who grab this special release.

STORMTROOPER INVASION
Star Wars fans are in for a treat as Lladró introduces their seventh addition to the collection — the Stormtrooper.

Launched in 2019, the Star Wars collection pays tribute to some of the saga’s prominent characters, including Grogu, Princess Leia, Ahsoka Tano, Rey, and Queen Amidala. Darth Vader was a fan favorite, selling out within three months after its release, said Lladró Sales Director Roberto Marco Andreu.

The Stormtrooper is glazed in white porcelain and accented with black and gray tones. It has their signature E-11 Blaster Rifle on hand, crafted with matte black porcelain. The piece also comes with a base featuring an identifying plaque and its edition number.

An army of 1,138 limited-edition Stormtroopers is waiting for their new owners. The number is a nod to Star Wars creator George Lucas’ first feature film, THX 1138.

WELCOMING A NEW GUEST
The Guest is a Lladró classic that has taken on many faces, colors, and interpretations. The figurine is characterized by its bear-like head and a small body wearing what seems to be a pair of sweats.

Designed by Jaime Hayon, its distinct shape is a blank canvas on which many artists have expressed their creativity and personality. Paul Smith, Tim Biskup, Devilrobots, and Gary Baseman were only some who have tried their hand at decorating their own Guest.

“Understanding, appreciating and learning from artisanship has always been a crucial part of my work, which is a mix of tradition and culture. To preserve this source of learning it is necessary to couple it with design, with a view to advancing artisan techniques and to contextualizing their value in the present,” said Hayon.

The Guest is symbolic of Lladró’s commitment to diversity in their craft. The concoction of cultures in the brand’s collections proves their dedication to honoring the classic and embracing modernity.

The new Lladro figurines are found in Rustan’s Makati. — Chelsea Visto

Team BMW finishes southern leg of ‘Philippine Loop’

Posing in Batangas are (from left) Bernard Aboboto and Brennan Ramos of SMC Asia Car Distributors Corp., Brando Rosales of AutoIndustriya, Isaac Atienza of GoFlatOut, Manskee Nascimento of Visor, Toto Villanueva of SMC Asia Car Distributors Corp., and Alex ‘Banawe Boy’ Lim. — PHOTO FROM BMW PHILIPPINES

OVER 13 DAYS, Team BMW — aboard the BMW 318i Touring, BMW X3 xDrive20d Business, and the BMW X5 xDrive30d M Sport — completed the southern leg of its so-called “Philippine Loop” adventure. The participants logged over 3,000 kilometers in 13 days — encountering “breathtaking landscapes” and enjoying the hospitality of Filipinos. Taking ROROs (roll-on, roll-off) whenever needed, the team went through, reported BMW Philippines in a release, “a cultural immersion.” The statement added, “Team BMW’s southern adventure wasn’t just about conquering the distance. They made strategic stops to experience the rich history and food of the region.”

The team drove to Naga City in Bicol, Tacloban City in Leyte, Surigao City in Surigao del Norte, Davao City in Davao del Sur, General Santos City in South Cotabato, Valencia City in Bukidnon, Dapitan City in Zamboanga del Norte, Bacolod City in Negros, and Boracay Island.

“The journey demanded adaptability. Team BMW navigated diverse landscapes, seamlessly transitioning between Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and back… However, the true spirit of adventure lies in embracing the unexpected. While meticulous route planning was a key strategy, Team BMW demonstrated impressive adaptability when faced with unforeseen circumstances. Route changes due to inclement weather, unpaved roads, unpassable bridges and delays in their RORO schedule tested their flexibility,” continued the statement.

Meanwhile, SMC Asia Car Distributors Corp. (BMW Philippines) President Spencer Yu said, “The comfort and fuel efficiency of our BMWs were the pillars of our success. Even with the constant change in terrain and the demands of long-distance travel, our vehicles consistently delivered impressive mileage. Additionally, the comfort of our vehicles ensured everyone on the team stayed refreshed and focused throughout the journey.”

Team BMW’s Philippine Loop adventure continues as they take on the “northern loop” next.

AI governance key for businesses amid rising  ethical, copyright concerns — IBM Philippines

AILEEN JUDAN-JIAO

By Aubrey Rose A. Inosante, Reporter

PHILIPPINE COMPANIES need reliable artificial intelligence (AI) models to address rising copyright and ethical issues, making AI governance essential to ensure tools remain safe and ethical, according to Aileen Judan-Jiao, president and country general manager of IBM Philippines.

“It’s the responsible use of AI. It needs to be trustworthy. If AI gives you insight, you need to know the source,” Ms. Jiao said in an interview with BusinessWorld.

She said this concern was raised because the licensing of open-source AI models often lacks clarity regarding how these models were trained and how the data was cleaned and filtered for hate, abuse, and profanity.

“We have open-sourced our AI models. It’s named Granite. We have published where we trained the model,” Ms. Jiao said.

In May, IBM open-sourced Granite, a family of AI models purpose-built for business. These models can perform text summarization and content generation tasks. Before training the model, it searches for and removes duplication, employs URL blocklists, and filters for “objectionable” content and document quality. It also uses sentence splitting and tokenization techniques. IBM has an AI Ethics Board as well.

Ms. Jiao added that using public data for private and commercial use could violate intellectual property rights and profit off content produced by generative AI.

“This is why we say governance in AI is so important. That’s a core mission of our platform for watsonx. That is the area for AI governance,” she said.

“There are very good possibilities for AI. It does not come without risk, just like any technology, but there are key ways to mitigate those risks,” she said, noting that bias, such as gender bias, may occur in any AI model.

Instead, she advised being aware, doing due diligence on why to trust AI, and refraining from selling AI-generated content with privacy tags. She said if someone is developing AI models for larger businesses, “we say, don’t just be an AI user; be an AI value creator.”

“AI must be solving a problem. Be clear on what problem you want to solve that will really drive value for you so that you don’t run into issues like, ‘it will replace this person.’ Then you’re just automating for the sake of automating,” she added.

Her outlook remains that AI will be part of the upscaling process. “You may not like it today, just like the pandemic, but it will be everywhere. Trust that IBM will be at the forefront. We will continue to upscale, re-skill, and provide new roles for us,” she said.

MORE WOMEN IN TECH
Ms. Jiao was the first homegrown Filipina president and country general manager of IBM, having risen through the ranks from a systems engineer in 1992 at IBM Philippines.

She also said that her first tech job, supporting laser printers for a multinational tech company, came after graduating with a Computer Science degree from Ateneo de Manila University.

“It was quite an unusual role for women in technical positions to rise all the way up because, apparently, you stay and become a developer…,” she said.

Apart from being part of the board of trustees for the Philippines Business for Social Progress and Philippine Business for Education, Ms. Jiao also chairs the Makati Business Club’s Women-in-C-suite committee and is a member of the Filipina Chief Executive Officer circle.

She said, among its goals is to give exposure to those women who don’t have a nurturing environment like IBM, don’t have the policies, and are unaware of how to start.

“Diversity and inclusion are very close to IBM’s heart, and they are for me as well,” she said, noting she became a “testament” to taking unconventional paths where tech and high executive jobs are mostly offered to men.

Heading IBM, an international company where executive-level positions are often presumed to be filled by foreign nationals, earned her the overriding comment from employees that it can be done after her promotion to the top job.

Over 60% of senior leaders in IBM Philippines across different functions are women, she said. However, she noted that IBM does not hire for the sake of diversity metrics, but based on skills and credentials.

She said that while the challenge of work-life balance for women in the technology industry is in the past, the current challenge lies in ensuring that a hybrid work environment achieves the same business outcomes.

IBM facilitates mentorship that is not bound by geography; Ms. Jiao currently mentors an employee in China. It also encourages its workers, as a minimum, to learn about hybrid cloud and AI strategies, regardless of their role.

“You can learn different domains, different industries, different technologies, and different levels. Earn your own certifications if you want to, on your own time. It’s all about your learning,” she said.

Pushing for more inclusion, IBM partnered with various educational institutions, offering free online courses for thousands of learners. In February, the Department of Labor and Employment announced that it signed a partnership with IBM in 2023 to offer beneficiaries the SkillsBuild platform, focusing on customer support, data analysis, and other high-demand skills required in the digital economy.

“It has to be a responsible use of AI, but you need it starting before they graduate and also now post-graduate. I’ve done a lot of this series together with the team and then some of the leaders, and it’s very close to AI, so adult learners,” she said.

BSP’s net loss widens as of February as expenses rise

BANGKO SENTRAL NG PILIPINAS — BLOOMBERG

THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) posted a P2.24-billion net loss as of end-February even as revenue growth outpaced the increase in its expenses in the period, preliminary data showed.

This is 37.4% wider than the P1.63-billion net loss it posted in the same period a year ago, BSP data showed.

Meanwhile, it booked a P3.82-billion net income in January alone.

The central bank’s expenses jumped by 14.2% year on year to P40.14 billion in the January-February period from P35.17 billion a year prior.

Broken down, interest expenses in the period rose by 13.2% to P28.41 billion from P25.1 billion a year prior, while other expenses climbed by 16.5% to P11.73 billion from P10.07 billion.

Meanwhile, the BSP’s revenues grew by 37.4% to P34.15 billion in the first two months of the year from P24.85 billion in the comparable year-ago period.

Interest income increased by 37.5% to P32.84 billion from P23.89 billion in the same period in 2023. Miscellaneous income likewise jumped by 35.1% year on year to P1.31 billion from about P970,000 a year earlier.

Miscellaneous income includes trading gains, fees, penalties and other operating income, among others, according to the BSP.

This brought the central bank’s net loss before foreign exchange (FX) gains, tax, and capital reserves to P5.99 billion in the period, narrower than the P10.31-billion loss it recorded a year prior.

The BSP’s P3.75-billion net gain from FX rate fluctuations in the first two months helped narrow its bottom-line loss. However, this was 56.8% lower year on year from P8.68 billion.

The figure reflects FX gains from the BSP’s foreign currency-denominated transactions.

On the other hand, the central bank’s total assets hit P7.51 trillion as of February, up by 2.2% from P7.35 trillion in the previous year.

Total liabilities also increased by 2.2% to P7.37 trillion from P7.21 trillion.

This brought the BSP’s net worth to P133.78 billion at end-February, down by 4.5% from P140.09 billion a year prior. — L.M.J.C. Jocson

Crickets get crunchy as Singapore approves edible insects in bid to ensure food security

REUTERS

SINGAPORE — At Singapore’s House of Seafood restaurant, the fish-head curry comes with a side of crunchy crickets, the tofu has bugs crawling out of it and the patrons can’t get enough.

The seaside restaurant is the first eatery to put insects on the menu after the city state’s food authority this month approved for human consumption 16 species ranging from crickets to grasshoppers, grubs and mealworms after two years of deliberation.

Crickets and other insects have long been enjoyed as street food in Southeast Asia, but not in the wealthy financial hub, where food imports come with restrictions for safety and hygiene purposes.

Francis Ng, chief executive of House of Seafood, said customers love it when the dishes play up the insects, like that tofu dish he plated to look like bugs were crawling out of it, and a dish of glutinous rice balls studded with silkworms.

“It looks scarier so customers can film for their TikTok,” said Mr. Ng, adding that his phone has been ringing off the hook with customers eager to book a tasting.

The restaurant has drafted a menu with 30 dishes that feature insects, which they can sell to the general public once their importers are approved by the food authority.

For now, Mr. Ng is offering free samples. In 2019, Singapore declared it was aiming to produce 30% of its nutritional needs by 2030 instead of the current model where 90% of food is imports, and food security expert Paul Teng said insects could certainly help move towards this goal — if people got over “the yuck factor.”

“Most insects are almost all protein,” said Mr. Teng, who works at the Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, adding that there needs to be local production to make this alternative protein source affordable.

“Getting people to accept insects in their diet is a challenge. But really, it’s a normal food item. Let’s do something about it to prepare the consumer for it,” he said. “Me personally, I have no problem eating insects.”

The United Nations has deemed bugs a sustainable source of protein to feed a global population estimated to swell to 9.7 billion by 2050 and global food security issues due to extreme weather and conflicts have also increased the interest in the high-quality, economical nutrition that bugs provide.

In Singapore, all insects approved for human consumption must be farmed in a controlled environment and not harvested from the wild, and cannot be fed contaminants like manure or rotten food, according to the food agency.

In tandem, the Food and Agriculture Organization has been promoting farming of insects for human consumption and animal feed, and there has been local interest to import insects, but cost remains a barrier for now: Mr. Ng said insects make up 10% of his costs at the House of Seafood, and they are all imported.

“The price is definitely higher than eggs,” he said.

It’s too early to tell if insects will become a feature of the Singapore diet or whether demand will fizzle out as it has for fake meat products.

But for now, some diners say they are happy to develop a taste for bugs.

“If they have a higher source of protein, why not? I’ll add it to my daily meal and daily food intake,” said Bregria Sim, a 23-year-old logistics executive, adding she would pay around S$40 ($30) for the novelty dishes. — Reuters

Drinking’s cancer link is underrated

TIRACHARDZ-FREEPIK

NOW that the vast majority of Americans don’t smoke, it’s hard to know what we’re supposed to do about the recent news that 40% of cancer cases are preventable. Drinking alcohol is one of the top risk factors — and yet doctors aren’t talking to patients about its connection to cancer.

Alcohol was third behind obesity and smoking among the “modifiable” risk factors according to this new study. You can’t walk into a doctor’s office without being put on a scale, and everyone knows smoking causes cancer, but drinking a glass of wine or two every night? Not long ago, that was considered healthy — due, researchers now say, to a systematic error in several widely publicized earlier studies.

And drinking is a bigger cancer risk factor for women than it is for men. About 300,000 women are diagnosed with breast cancer in the US each year. It’s by far the most common potentially lethal cancer among nonsmoking women.

Alcohol consumption accounts for about 16% of breast cancers, said the lead author of the study, Farhad Islami of the American Cancer Society. Most of the increased risk is attributable to people who exceed the current health guidelines of no more than one drink a day for women. But even a drink a day raises risk — especially if you’re filling up a big wine glass.

Drinkers of both sexes have an increased risk of liver cancer, esophageal cancer, and other malignancies of the digestive tract, but these are not nearly as common as breast cancer.

There are still many critical questions that experts can’t answer until there’s more research: How much is a woman’s lifetime breast cancer risk elevated by heavy or binge drinking in college and early adulthood? How much can a woman reduce her risk by going from moderate drinking to abstaining? Are there women with certain risk factors that make them more prone to cancer induced by alcohol use? How and why does alcohol raise breast cancer risk?

There are a few studies suggesting that alcohol can cause breast cancer by increasing the amount of estrogen circulating in the bloodstream. Should women taking hormone replacement therapy skip the daily glass of wine? It might make sense, but it remains in the realm of things that need more study.

Instead, doctors usually recommend diligent annual screening mammograms if you want to try HRT, but of course, screening doesn’t prevent cancer. In the most optimistic estimates, programs of regular screening mammograms reduce cancer death by 20%, but more recent studies show less benefit along with a serious risk of unnecessary treatment.

In one of the many articles on the limitations of mammography, professor of medicine Russell Harris of the University of North Carolina suggests it’s more important for doctors to council women to stop smoking, maintain a healthy weight, and cut back on drinking.

In June, the New York Times tried to quantify the risk of moderate drinking. One researcher said drinking seven drinks a week only costs you about two and a half months of life. The researcher, Tim Stockwell of the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research, emphasized that was an average — most people may lose nothing, but a few will lose a lot.

It’s hard to isolate the effects of drinking because it’s tied up with other behaviors and conditions, he told me. Take the “sick quitter effect,” he said. People who get serious warnings from their doctors often quit drinking, and so studies can show a correlation between quitting drinking and getting sick — because getting sick caused people to quit. And some people don’t ever drink because they have health problems or are on medications. Missing that link is one reason earlier studies showed — wrongly — that moderate drinking was beneficial.

Some people who don’t drink any alcohol might compensate with other unhealthy behaviors. For example, consumption of sugary soda might explain a high incidence of heart disease and diabetes in Middle Eastern countries where many people never drink alcohol for religious reasons.

With alcohol, risk is associated with lifetime consumption, Stockwell said, and some studies show that a long-term pattern of youthful excess puts you at higher risk of heart disease when you’re older. We need more research to know how lifetime patterns of drinking affect cancer risk — all we know is that if you want to minimize your risk, it’s better not to drink.

But of course, minimizing risk isn’t everything. Drinking is an important part of celebrations and socializing, and we have to weigh those benefits against the health risks. Some people have a highly tuned palate and get enormous pleasure from fine wine, while some of us are just as happy with a fake beer as long as the company is genuine.

It’s also a major quality of life issue to be cancer-free, rather than facing surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy. To estimate the trade-offs, we deserve better information — both from researchers and from our doctors.

BLOOMBERG OPINION

Artefino returns this month

ARTEFINO, one of the highlights of the circuit of artisanal fairs in the city since 2017, returns on Aug. 22 to 25 at The Fifth at Rockwell, Makati.

This year, they’re revamping their “Pamana” (inheritance) theme (launched back in 2018) with “Kapamana.”

“When we briefed our brand partners about Kapamana, it felt like a full circle moment for us,” said Marimel Francisco, Artefino co-founder in a release. “We have always talked about instilling culture and heritage in the next generation. The focus remains the same, but we are turning the spotlight on contemporary expressions that are rooted in our history. It’s essentially heritage, but not in an old-fashioned way.”

Cedie Lopez-Vargas, Artefino co-founder, in an interview with BusinessWorld on Aug. 1 at the fair’s launch at the new SoFA (School of Fashion and the Arts) Design Institute campus in Rockwell, discussed how they make the idea of heritage fresh: “We’re not just talking about craftsmanship and artisanship. We’re taking the conversation to a higher level. What are we leaving behind for the next generation? You’re not just leaving behind crafts and tradition. What kind of world are you leaving?

“When you think about dressing up, you think in terms of ‘what can I upcycle, what can I refresh,’ rather ‘what can I buy that’s new?’”

While showcasing about 100 brands this year, one of their highlights precisely summarizes that thought: HeArteFino (the fair’s CSR arm) will serve as a platform for a limited edition collection by artist Patty Eustaquio for Bayo Atelier. Natural fabrics printed with Ms. Eustaquio’s artwork (in biodegradable ink) were combined with native-woven textiles, with a zero-waste directive. The combination meant avant-garde silhouettes (because of the necessity with working with the fabric’s shape as-is), multiple ways to wear them, and limited numbers.

Artefino is one of the pillars that make Filipino aesthetics cool right now: it began in the 2010s, and now in the 2020s, it’s no longer uncommon to see Filipiniana-inspired clothes in the street, which used to be dominated by Western and East Asian styles. We asked Ms. Lopez-Vargas how Artefino had a hand in this, and said, “We like to think we created more awareness for that movement, by trying to find ways to contemporize how you dress Filipino,” she said.

As we spoke to her, we pointed to her skirt, which resembled the tapis worn with the traditional Traje de Mestiza dress. She corrected us, saying that it was actually an apron — inspired by the tapis, yes, but with more practical pockets. “It’s not costumey, it’s not too contrived.” — Joseph L. Garcia

MG celebrates 100th year with ‘unbeatable deals’

IMAGE FROM SAIC MOTOR PHILIPPINES, INC.

THE MG (Morris Garages) brand marks 100 years since its famous octagon logo was registered as a trademark, and MG Philippines is capitalizing on this milestone with offers for customers.

From July 22 to Dec. 31, 2024, MG customers can get up to 15% discount on parts and labor, and stand a chance to win an MG3 Hybrid+ and other prizes. Preventive maintenance schedule (PMS) work, prepaid PMS, general job repairs, and body repair services worth a minimum of P2,000 (net of discounts) per visit are entitled to a free 36-point safety checkup, up to 15% discount on parts and up to 10% discount on labor, and earn for the customer one raffle coupon per service transaction.

People who purchase any of the participating MG vehicles during the program period will receive two raffle coupons. Participants must fill out the registration form after scanning the QR code located at the dealer’s transaction area to earn their raffle entry.

 

“Year 2024 has been a landmark year for the iconic British brand in the Philippines,” said SAIC Motor Philippines, Inc. in a release. The company made its foray into the hatchback segment with the MG3, and introduced the MG ONE, Cyberster, G50 Plus, and more.

Monthly winners can still join the subsequent draws and the grand raffle. Losing entries from the monthly draws will be included in the succeeding draws, giving participants multiple chances to win. Said MG Philippines President Felix Jiang, “MG has been a part of automotive innovation for 100 years, providing quality vehicles and exceptional service. Our commitment to excellence continues as we celebrate this milestone and look forward to many more years of serving our customers.”

For more info, visit www.mgmotor.ph or any MG dealership.

Here is the raffle schedule, along with the prizes.

ICTSI shares up on new equipment news, Q2 earnings prospects

RAZON-LED International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI) was the most actively traded stock last week, with its share price rising following news of the commissioning of three new cranes and the commencement of its Berth 8 expansion at its Manila terminal.

Data from the Philippine Stock Exchange showed that ICTSI was the most actively traded stock in terms of value turnover, with P2.84 billion worth of 8.04 million shares exchanging hands from July 29 to Aug. 2.

The listed port operator’s shares closed at P350 each on Friday, 1.4% lower than its July 26 close of P355. Year to date, the stock has increased by 41.8%.

Rastine Mackie D. Mercado, research director at China Bank Securities Corp., said that positive global macroeconomic trends, such as expectations of a soft landing for the US economy and the prospects of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, have supported the listed port operator’s price action this week.

Similarly, Jeff Radley C. See, head trader at Mercantile Securities Corp., noted that bullish sentiment has lifted the index, as the US Fed is likely to begin rate cuts in September 2024.

“The [second-quarter] earnings report is what investors are anticipating that the company will be reporting good earnings,” Mr. See said in a Viber message.

Last week, the Enrique K. Razon, Jr.-led company saw developments including the full operation of its three new quay cranes at Manila International Container Terminal (MICT).

In a statement, MICT Chief Executive Officer Christian L. Lozano said that this acquisition is a significant step for MICT’s expansion and modernization. The addition of quay cranes will enable more efficient handling of cargo loads, leading to faster vessel turnaround times and improved operations overall.

ICTSI also stated that the commissioning of these three cranes demonstrates MICT’s commitment to providing the highest levels of port services and enhancing the terminal’s capacity to handle the growing demands of modern container shipping.

MICT is one of the three terminals in the Port of Manila and has the largest quay crane fleet with 18 units. The additional cranes have improved operational efficiencies, allowing the terminal to better manage peak periods and high cargo volumes, ensuring smoother and more predictable operations for all stakeholders, ICTSI also said in its statement.

Additional reports show that the Manila terminal has begun the second phase of its Berth 8 expansion, which will include building a 300-meter wharf and a 10-hectare container yard. Upon completion, the expansion will increase MICT’s capacity by 200,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 3.5 million TEUs.

Berth 8 will be equipped with three quay cranes to efficiently handle ultra-large container vessels with capacities of up to 18,000 TEUs. These new cranes are scheduled to arrive in 2027, ICTSI said.

“The second phase of development for MICT’s Berth 8 will increase the terminal’s throughput capacity by 6%, which should further support ICT’s thrust to expand volumes,” Mr. Mercado said in an e-mail.

He added that the commissioning of three new quay cranes should benefit ICTSI in terms of operational efficiency, increased volume, and potential margin improvements.

In the first quarter, ICTSI reported a 35.7% year-on-year rise in its attributable net income to $209.88 million. Its consolidated revenues also grew by 15.4% to $685.19 million.

Mr. Mercado estimates that core earnings for the full year 2024 will reach $740 million.

Expectations of continued earnings growth, resulting from volume expansion and robust yields per TEU amidst upward tariff adjustments across its global terminals, could entice investors to consider the port operator, Mr. Mercado said.

“Capacity expansion through either organic or M&A (merger and acquisition) opportunities (i.e., Durban terminal in South Africa, MICT), and attractive dividend prospects given expectations of earnings growth” can also be considered by investors.

“We see current support at P349, while resistance is at P370,” Mr. Mercado said.

For Mr. See, technically speaking, “the chart made a bearish divergence as the price continues to rise but RSI (relative strength index) indicator is showing a decrease in strength.”

He pegged support levels at P388 and P315, while resistance levels at P360, and 373, respectively. — Abigail Marie P. Yraola

Yields on gov’t debt rally amid policy easing hopes

YIELDS on government securities (GS) traded in the secondary market went down last week amid heightened expectations of rate cuts by both the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the US Federal Reserve.

Bond yields, which move opposite to prices, fell by an average of 6.29 basis points (bps) week on week, based on PHP Bloomberg Valuation Service Reference Rates data as of Aug. 2 published on the Philippine Dealing System’s website.

At the short end of the curve, rates went up. Yields on the 91-, 182- and 364-day Treasury bills rose by 5.77 bps (to 5.7871%), 2.53 bps (6.0643%) and 0.48 bp (6.1631%), respectively.

Meanwhile, yields on Treasury bonds (T-bonds) went down across all tenors last week.

At the belly of the curve, the two-, three-, four-, five- and seven-year T-bonds declined by 4.52 bps (to 5.9918%), 7.23 bps (6.0170%), 9.69 bps (6.0500%), 11.39 bps (6.0809%), and 13.26 bps (6.1162%), respectively.

Lastly, at the long end of the yield curve, the 10-, 20-, and 25-year debt papers likewise saw their rates fall by 14.31 bps (to 6.1328%), 8.8 bps (6.3139%), and 8.81 bps (6.3132%) respectively.

GS volume traded stood at P31.8 billion on Friday, lower than the P34.19 billion recorded on July 26.

“Optimism on an August rate cut by BSP pushed domestic yields lower, supported by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s statements suggesting a cut in borrowing costs could be on the table,” Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said in a Viber message.

“Local fixed-income markets had a strong rally to end July, mirroring the sharp decrease in US Treasury yields overseas. The long-end tenors were once again the winner for last week’s session as the investors stocked up on duration in anticipation of the expected rate cuts by the BSP in the following months,” Alessandra P. Araullo, chief investment officer at ATRAM Trust Corp., likewise said in a Viber message.

Mr. Powell’s dovish remarks at the close of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 30-31 meeting also caused GS yields to go down, she added.

“Market players were keen on risk-taking as the longer-term bonds were heavily lifted. Bonds with maturities of more than 10 years saw yields decrease by an average of 12 bps,” Ms. Araullo said.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. earlier said the Monetary Board may deliver its first rate cut in over three years at its Aug. 15 review — the only policy meeting scheduled in the third quarter — as they expect inflation to continue easing this semester.

The Monetary Board could reduce borrowing costs by 25 bps in the third quarter and by another 25 bps in the fourth quarter, he said.

The BSP in July kept its policy rate at a 17-year high of 6.5% for a sixth straight meeting after raising interest rates by a cumulative 450 bps from May 2022 to October 2023.

Meanwhile, Mr. Powell said on Wednesday interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the US economy follows its expected path, putting the central bank near the end of a more than two-year battle against inflation but square in the middle of the nation’s presidential election campaign, Reuters reported.

The Fed ended its latest two-day policy meeting with a decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range that was set a year ago, but its statement softened the description of inflation and said the risks to employment were now on a par with those of rising prices — neutral language that opens the door for rates to fall after more than two years of tightening credit.

Mr. Powell pushed the message even further forward in his post-meeting press conference, noting that price pressures were now easing broadly in the economy — what he called “quality” disinflation — and that if coming data evolve as anticipated, support for cutting rates will grow.

Investors saw Mr. Powell’s comments as clearly setting the stage for a reduction in borrowing costs at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Meanwhile, weak US data reaffirmed investor worries last week, fueling a sell-off in global equities and pressuring US Treasury yields to multi-month lows, Reuters reported.

The US Labor department reported last week that the US unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July amid a significant slowdown in hiring.

July US nonfarm payrolls report, which showed job growth slumped to 114,000 new hires in July from 179,000 in June.

The market mood soured after data showed a measure of manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management dropped to an eight-month low in July at 46.8.

The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 18 bps to 3.798%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 28.5 bps to 3.8798%.

For this week, Ms. Araullo said the release of July Philippine inflation data will be a major driver for yields.

“The BSP has estimated the year-on-year figure to fall between 4.0% and 4.8%, which is higher than June’s 3.7%. A further upside surprise may cause investors to take profit and we may finally see some short-term market correction,” she said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release inflation data on Tuesday (Aug. 6).

A BusinessWorld poll of 15 analysts last week yielded a median estimate of 4% for the consumer price index in July. This matches the lower end of the BSP’s forecast.

If realized, July inflation would be faster than 3.7% in June but slower than 4.7% a year earlier. It would also mark the eighth straight month that inflation settled within the BSP’s 2-4% annual target.

“Another event that may affect yield movement is the five-year bond auction. Investors may look to trim some positions in anticipation of the fresh supply,” she added.

On Tuesday, the Treasury will offer P30 billion in reissued seven-year T-bonds with a remaining life of four years and nine months.

For his part, Mr. Ravelas said GS yields could move sideways to lower in the near term ahead of the BSP’s expected monetary easing. — Lourdes O. Pilar with Reuters

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