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Bond traders dust off crisis playbook, fire up best quantitative easing trades

BOND INVESTORS are preparing for another wave of quantitative easing (QE) from the European Central Bank (ECB) by returning to some of their favorite post-crisis trades.

First up: buy the debt of nations such as France that have greater scope for purchases by the ECB. Next, bet on a drop in longer-maturity yields relative to near-term rates. Then go for the region’s higher-returning bonds, like Spain.

Some of the favored ECB QE restart trades already beginning to work

While fund managers are not expecting any immediate move by the ECB, many are factoring in action to stimulate the region’s flagging economy this year. The global trade conflict and record-low inflation expectations have turned money markets to price in rate cuts by 2020. Since the ECB has kept deposit rates negative, policy makers might be more inclined to re-visit QE first.

“I would expect further rate cuts, QE, a further extension of forward guidance,” said Russell Silberston, a fund manager at Investec Asset Management, which oversees $133.7 billion. “At the broadest level we like anything that benefits from lower for longer, so yield curve flatteners for example.”

ECB President Mario Draghi said at the bank’s last policy meeting that there is “considerable headroom on QE.” Other officials have since reinforced the message. Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn, a candidate to replace Draghi this year, tweeted the ECB has “gotta do what’s gotta do, as needed.”

In the last round of QE following the financial crisis, the ECB hovered up €2.6 trillion of debt from 2015 to the time they called it quits at the end of 2018. That insulated markets from risk and led to winning bets for funds buying German, French and Italian debt, which were among the biggest beneficiaries of the program and saw yields fall to historic lows.

The debt of nations with more longer-term securities that the ECB could still buy — such as France — are now outperforming in the latest rally. That’s because, with the ECB only taking bonds yielding more than its minus 0.4% deposit rate, those have become scarcer. It is also pushing long-dated yields down faster.

FLATTENING CURVES
The flattening of yield curves “has much further to run” as the restart of QE was barely factored into markets before the ECB’s last meeting, according to Citigroup’s Jamie Searle in a note entitled “Flatteners, flatteners, flatteners”. He favors trades targeting a fall in Spain’s 30-year yields relative to 10-year bonds.

Investors have been piling into bonds since then, driving yields across the continent to fresh record lows and narrowing premiums over Germany. Danske Bank A/S likes bets on these spreads tightening further as it sees the pressure mounting on the ECB, while Rabobank’s head of rates strategy Richard McGuire recommends traders buy 30-year Belgian bonds versus Germany.

Others favor Italy, which has plenty of debt for the ECB to soak up. While Italian bonds have been weighed down by political risk in the past year, they “would be the clearest long in Europe” if QE were to restart, according to NatWest Market’s Giles Gale. He recommends five-year Italian debt against Germany.

SCARCITY TRADES
A restart of QE is far from set in stone as the ECB may need to see more signs of an economic slowdown in the second half of the year to act. Any easing of trade tensions could scupper trades placed too soon, while a revival of inflation expectations could also curb the market speculation.

“The macro picture is not bad enough yet to prompt more easing, but there has clearly been a shift in focus towards downside risks to growth and Draghi is prepping the market for more stimulus if things do get worse,” said Joubeen Hurren, a money manager at Aviva Investors. “Curves can still flatten.”

Restarting bond buying wouldn’t be without its hurdles either. The ECB is currently only allowed to buy 33% of the total stock of a given nation’s bond and it is already at that level in Germany, and close in the Netherlands, according to Citigroup Inc. By comparison, the bank estimates it has France and Italy at around 20%.

This issue of scarcity is leading some investors to buy bunds versus interest-rate swaps, which the ECB would be unlikely to buy. This trade could also serve as a hedge against turmoil, such as a flare up in Italian political risk, with the bonds outperforming from a flight to safety. Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Sphia Salim favors buying 30-year German bonds against interest-rate swaps.

“We like owning shorter-dated bonds in Germany and also in European swaps,” said Grant Peterkin, a senior managing director at Manulife’s Absolute Return Rates Fund. “We still feel there is value in a world where inflation expectations continue to be muted and some form of stimulus will be needed to reflate the global economy.” — Bloomberg

Tiny bulletproof vests centerpiece of New York art exhibit on school shootings

NEW YORK — Rows of tiny bullet-proof vests hang on clothing racks and “safety defense” lunchboxes adorn the walls. It looks like an apparel store — almost.

But the Back to School Shopping art installation by the artist WhIsBe is a commentary on US mass school shootings, intended to raise the question: How long before life imitates art?

The child-sized bulletproof vests are adorned with cartoon characters Pikachu, Care Bears, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, while the lunch boxes are filled with replica guns, Tasers, and brass knuckles. The exhibit, in warehouse-style space in the heart of Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood, also features a game arcade claw machine filled with brightly colored cap guns.

The artist, whose nom de plume WhIsBe stands for “What is Beauty,” is aiming for a gut-punching reaction to an exhibit that he hopes will spur action to combat school shootings.

“The reactions are full spectrum from shock to upset to being angry, but not angry at what I’m doing, angry at the stark fact that this could be a reality,” the artist, who does not reveal his real name, said in an interview on Monday.

US schools have been rocked by a steady stream of shootings in the nearly two decades since the Columbine High School massacre that killed 13 people in 1999. A growing national campaign by young people to tackle gun violence and toughen laws on firearms sales has turned up the volume of the debate over guns in America, where the right to bear arms is protected under the Second Amendment of the Constitution.

Since 1970, there have been more than 1,300 incidents of gun violence at schools in the United States, according to the K-12 School Shooting Database maintained by the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security.

The art exhibit, located in the Starrett-Lehigh Building in Chelsea, runs through June 30.

“I’m hoping that people are going to experience a different visceral reaction that will maybe change their thoughts about the matter into provoking them into action,” WhIsBe said. — Reuters

Which have (un)favorable trade balances?

Which have (un)favorable trade balances?

CTA upholds dismissal of Hedcor’s tax refund claim

THE Court of Tax Appeals (CTA) affirmed the dismissal of the P10.6-million tax refund claim of Hedcor, Inc. for lack of jurisdiction.

In a 13-page decision dated June 10, the CTA sitting en banc denied the petition of Hedcor, saying it failed to file in time its judicial claim for refund or issuance of tax credit certificate over alleged input value-added tax (VAT) paid and incurred from the domestic purchases of goods and services mostly attributable to zero-rated sales of electricity for the third quarter of 2006.

“In fine, Hedcor’s judicial claim cannot prosper for its failure to comply with the 30-day mandatory and jurisdictional period set forth by law,” the CTA ruled.

The CTA noted that the hydropower generation company filed its administrative claim with the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) on Aug. 20, 2008 and completed submission of documents on Nov. 12, 2008.

Since no action or decision was given by the BIR after 120 days on March 12, 2009, as stated in the Tax Code, Hedcor had 30 days or until April 11, 2009 to file to the CTA.

Hedcor, however, only filed its petition for review to the CTA on Dec. 10, 2015.

Under Section 112(C) of the National Internal Revenue Code of 1997, the commissioner of BIR shall grant or deny a refund or issue a tax credit certificate within 120 days from the submission of complete documents. In case of full or partial denial or inaction from the part of the bureau, a taxpayer has 30 days to file the claim to the CTA.

The CTA also cited various decisions by the Supreme Court which stated that the 120+30 day periods in the Tax Code are “mandatory and jurisdictional.”

The tax court also denied the claim of Hedcor that the 30-day-period for the filing in the CTA started from the date of its receipt of the alleged denial of its claim from the BIR on Nov. 10, 2015.

“Applying the plain meaning of the words in the said resolution-letter, it is clear that there is no express denial of the claim,” the court said.

“In this case, considering that there is no actual denial of the claim, it should be treated as inaction. Hedcor’s allegation that its claim was acted upon and expressly denied precluding the application of the ‘deemed denial’ doctrine, is, therefore, bereft of merit,” it added.

The court also said the contention of Hedcor that the CTA in division erred in applying the provisions of Revenue Memorandum Circular No. 54-2014, which required complete submission of documents for claims at the time the claim was filed, is “bereft of merit” as the circular was not mentioned or discussed.

It also said Hedcor’s allegation on issue of prescription of period to appeal requires full-blown trial is “untenable.”

The CTA First Division on Dec. 22, 2016 granted the motion of the BIR for the early resolution on the issue of jurisdiction and dismissed the petition for lack of jurisdiction. The court in Nov. 2017 denied for lack of merit the motion for reconsideration of Hedcor.

The decision was penned by Associate Justice Juanito C. Castañeda, Jr.

Hedcor is Aboitiz Power Corp.’s run-of-river hydropower arm. — Vann Marlo M. Villegas

Art & Culture (06/19/19)

Sweeney Todd tickets out

LEA SALONGA and Jett Pangan star in Sweeney Todd.

AN UNJUSTLY exiled barber, Sweeney Todd, returns to 19th century London seeking vengeance. His revenge leads him to Mrs. Lovett, a resourceful proprietress of a failing pie shop. Sweeney Todd opens a new barber practice and Mrs. Lovett’s luck sharply shifts. Londoners start lining up for her pies — and the carnage has only just begun. Starring Tony and Olivier-winning actress Lea Salonga as Mrs. Lovett and rock icon Jett Pangan in the titular role, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street will run at the Theater at Solaire, Pasay City from Oct. 11 to 27. This year marks to 40th anniversary of the musical, having first opened on Broadway in 1979. Tickets are now on sale at TicketWorld (891-9999, www.ticketworld.com.ph).

Poklong Anading solo show

1335MABINI presents the next solo exhibit of 1335MABINI-represented artist Poklong Anading called Current. It will run from June 22 to Aug. 3. Anading’s spectrum of work ranges from video, installation, photography, drawing and painting. This exhibit centers around a series he started during his final phase at art school: Line Drawing — a process-oriented project with each iteration starting as a series of horizontal lines drawn onto a surface. While walking and drawing the lines with one hand, the other hand video-tapes the lines being drawn. The camera thus records what is in effect a performance and at the same time functions as a drawing tool just like the pencil. The resulting video becomes not only a video work but also a virtual drawing. The exhibition will be at 1335MABINI, Karrivin Plaza, Chino Roces Ave. Ext., Makati.

Film on artist Manuel Ocampo

DISCOVER the internal workings of the international art scene in the world of the elite as told through the lens of a Filipino artist based in America in Manuel Ocampo: God is My Co-pilot, which is set to be screened on June 21, 3 p.m., at the Multimedia Room of the Museum of Contemporary Art and Design (MCAD) of the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde. Directed by award-winning filmmaker Phillip Rodriguez, the film narrates the career of a 33-year-old painter who was thrust into the global arena during a time when multiculturalism was at the forefront of discussion. The documentary has been in the official selections of the AFI International Film Festival, Hawaii International Film Festival, International Festival of New Latin American Cinema in Havana, the Centre Georges Pompidou Biennale internationale du film sur l’art, the Museum of Contemporary Art Los Angeles, Arco in Madrid, San Francisco International Asian American Film Festival, Los Angeles Asian American Film Festival, and the Chicago Asian American Showcase at the Chicago Art Institute. The Museum of Contemporary Art and Design is located at the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde School of Design and Arts Campus, Dominga Street, Malate, Manila.

Arte Autismo art and photo exhibit

ARTE Autismo Filipino celebrate the strengths of its featured artists in an exhibit which opened on June 3 at The Globe Tower, Basement 1, The Globe Art Gallery in BGC. Among the artists whose works are on view are Julyan Harrison, Nina Bantoto, Vico Cham, Chico Joaquin, Samantha Kaspar, and Daniel Sanchez, all of whom are autistic. Julyan Coffee Spot, a coffee shop in Zambawood luxury resort in San Narciso, Zambales which offers employment to PWDs, is named after Julyan Harrison. Julyan Coffee Spot will be opening three branches in Metro Manila this year: at The Globe Tower BGC (June), Palma Street in Poblacion, Makati (July), and Maysilo Circle, Mandaluyong City.

Exhibits at Kaida

A PAINTING by Taichi Kondo

KAIDA Contemporary presents JAPINOYSME, a solo exhibition by Japanese-Filipino artist Taichi Kondo, and Planescapes, a two-man exhibition by Raymond Carlos and Jose Luis Singson. In his second solo exhibition, Kondo draws inspiration from his heritage as both a Japanese and Filipino. In Planescapes, Carlos and Singson present a series of works that seek to understand how memory, imagination, and reality coexist within the plane of consciousness. The exhibits are on view until July 1. Kaida Contemporary is located at 45 Scout Madriñan St., South Triangle, Quezon City.

Ayala Museum’s doll collection

SOME of the Ayala Museum’s Doll Collection.

AS PART of the Ayala Museum On-The-Go program, a showcase of 28 handcrafted dolls that represent the development of Philippine clothing will be exhibited in different Ayala Malls throughout the metro. The traveling exhibition — The Evolution of Philippine Costume: The Ayala Museum Doll Collection — kicks of at the Market! Market! Mall in Taguig where it is on view until June 29. The Doll Collection is one of the original permanent exhibitions housed in the old Ayala Museum when it opened in 1974. Each doll was laboriously created in the scale of 1:4 to be able to highlight and dramatize the distinctive features of each of these subcultures, as represented by their set of costumes.

Indonesia seen keeping key rate steady but cutting later this year

BANK Indonesia will likely keep its key rate steady. — WIKIPEDIA.ORG/CEPHOTO, UWE ARANAS

JAKARTA — Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at a policy review on Thursday, but it may begin to follow other Asian central banks by cutting later this year, a Reuters poll showed.

All but three of 22 analysts surveyed predicted Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 6.0%, where it has been since November.

The other three forecast a trim by 25 basis points (bps), which would be the first rate cut since September, 2017.

A reduction would put BI on the same path as central banks in India, Malaysia and the Philippines who have loosened monetary conditions following the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn.

Hours before BI’s meeting, the Fed, facing fresh demands by US President Donald Trump to cut interest rates, is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged, but possibly lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year.

“Now, we believe the stars in the global economic atmosphere are aligned for a BI rate cut,” said Satria Sambijantoro, an economist with Bahana Sekuritas, who is among the minority predicting a cut this week.

He cited even stronger dovish signals from the Fed, prospects of lower oil prices, and a credit rating upgrade from Standard & Poor’s last month as reasons why BI would feel comfortable cutting now.

Most other economists, however, think BI will take time to monitor global markets before cutting.

Trimegah Securities said in a note this week a premature rate cut would hurt the rupiah currency. Anchoring the rupiah was among BI’s main goals behind rate increases last year that increased the policy rate by a total 175 basis points.

“We’ll turn bearish on rupiah and bonds if BI delivers a rate cut too early,” its economist Fakhrul Fulvian said.

Governor Perry Warjiyo in an interview with Reuters last month said that BI will take into consideration global market conditions and Indonesia’s external balance when “considering the room for monetary policy to be more accommodative”.

Warjiyo told Reuters 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) expansion is seen at 5.1%, a fraction below last year’s 5.17% and near the bottom end of BI’s 5.0%-5.4% outlook.

On Monday, the governor told a hearing with parliament he expects global uncertainties to subside in the second half of the year.

Indonesian exports have plunged in recent months as global trade slowed and trade tensions between the United States and China escalated.

At its May 16 policy meeting, BI widened its forecast for the current account gap to 2.5%-3% of GDP this year, from an initial estimate of 2.5%.

All eight respondents who gave a view on the year-end benchmark expect at least one rate cut in 2019. Four predicted the rate would end the year 25 bps below its current level, three saw it 50 bps lower, and one saw the rate 75 bps lower. — Reuters

Car sales pick up in May

Car Sales (May)

How PSEi member stocks performed — June 18, 2019

Here’s a quick glance at how PSEi stocks fared on Tuesday, June 18, 2019.

 

Tobacco-growing areas to receive P15.81B from excise

THE government will release P15.81 billion collected from excise taxes on tobacco products using domestically-grown Virginia, Burley and native varieties to local government units (LGUs) to assist farmers in improving their productivity or shifting to other crops, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said in a memorandum order.

Of the P15.81 billion sourced from 2016 excise tax collections, P12.88 billion was generated by from cigarettes, and P2.93 billion by tobacco.

Ilocos Norte generated excise tax from cigarettes of P7.68 billion in 2016, followed by Abra with P1.92 billion; La Union P1.45 billion; and Misamis Oriental P775.4 million.

According to the DBM memorandum signed by officer-in-charge Janet B. Abuel on June 14, the funds will support the promotion of self-reliance by tobacco farmers through cooperative projects; livelihood projects focusing on developing alternative farming systems; post-harvest and secondary processing facilities; and infrastructure projects such as farm-to-market roads.

Under Republic Act 7171, LGUs producing Virginia-type cigarettes are entitled to 15% of the national tax collection.

For non-cigarette tobacco products, Isabela generated P1.426 billion in 2016 excise.

Other provinces generating excise tax in this segment were Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Tarlac, Occidental Mindoro, Misamis Oriental, Maguindanao and North Cotabato.

Under Republic Act 8240, LGUs producing burley and native tobacco are also entitled to a 15% share from the excise generated by these products, with 10% going to provinces and the 90% to cities and municipalities, depending on their share of tobacco production volume.

“The individual shares of the beneficiary LGUs were computed based on their respective volumes of production and trade acceptances, as reflected in the certifications issued by the National Tobacco Administration and endorsed by the Department of Agriculture,” the DBM said in its memorandum.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III has said that the Department of Finance (DoF) will work with the top tobacco producing regions to allot funds for crop diversification. The DoF and the Department of Health aim to reduce if not eliminate the use of cigarettes by increasing the excise tax per pack to P60 from P35.

“We will work with the four tobacco producing provincial local government units (LGUs) who collectively receive about P15 billion annually as their share of the tobacco tax, to allocate funds for crop diversification,” Mr. Dominguez said. — Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio

Japan tapped to help upgrade PHL ship building capability

THE Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA) said it signed an agreement with a Japanese industry association to help build the capacity of Philippine shipbuilders.

The regulator signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Japan Ship Machinery and Equipment Association (JSMEA) Tuesday, formalizing the current cooperation arrangements to support Philippine shipbuilders.

“We truly appreciate the commitment of Japan in engaging with us in the maritime industry such as in education, local shipbuilding and ship repair. With its latest technologies and strategies, Japan has been offering the Philippines sufficient machinery, technical skills and effective solutions to problems in our maritime industry,” MARINA’s officer-in-charge, Vice Admiral Narciso A Vingson, Jr., a former Armed Forces deputy chief of staff, said at the signing ceremony in Pasay City.

“…we are confident that this cooperation agreement will aid us in building a solid shipbuilding and ship repair (industry), which will generate jobs for millions of Filipinos, opportunities for partnership and investment between Filipinos and Japanese and provide readily available quality materials for local shipbuilding,” he added.

The MoU will cover the exchange of information on maritime trade, shipbuilding and ship equipment between the two parties and regular dialogues with member companies of JSMEA.

“After the MoU signing… we will conduct a mutual exchange of (information on) potential opportunities with MARINA every year,” JSMEA Chairman Shinzo Yamada said.

Mr. Vingson said the goal of the agency is to continue growing the shipbuilding industry, with the Philippines the fourth largest ship producer in the world by gross tonnage.

“We have just launched it, a 10-year development plan particularly for shipbuilding. Before, we only build ships of about 500 gross tonnes. But now, we are envisioning to build more than that… 50,000 gross tonnes or more,” he told reporters.

“We are building ships for other countries. It is only situated here, but it is owned by multinational (companies)… We just provide the labor force. But if we can encourage our local shipyard to help their own, facilitated by the government, I think we can build our own shipyard,” Mr. Vingson added.

He said with the cooperation agreement with JSMEA, he expects a boost in the capacity building of local shipbuilding companies. “So once we have to start building our own, it’s investment and job opportunities,” he said. — Denise A. Valdez

Davao water project to hit peak construction phase in late 2019

DAVAO CITY — The construction of the P12-billion bulk water project in the city is set to peak in late 2019 with the joint venture implementing it starting to look for more workers.

“Peak (of construction) would be sometime late this year and early next year with (demand for) up to 1,000 workers,” according to Cirilo C. Almario III, general manager of Apo Agua Infrastructura Inc., a consortium between the Aboitiz Equity Ventures and the JV Angeles Construction Corp., in an e-mail sent to BusinessWorld.

At present, the number of workers is currently about 170, but Mr. Almario said the construction phase has just started.

Mr. Almario said the company is not expected to have difficulty looking for workers because there is adequate manpower in the host communities.

When the project is completed by 2021 as scheduled, he said another set of people will be hired to operate the facility. “Priority will still be those from the host barangays but they would have to be qualified,” he said.

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) has said that the construction sector will become the major growth driver of gross regional domestic project to between 10.5% and 11% from 8.6% last year.

However, Maria Lourdes D. Lim, NEDA regional director, said growth in the sector will depend on how fast the projects, including those funded by government under its “Build, Build, Build” program, can hire quality workers amid a shortage of construction workers.

Ms. Lim said the government and private sector have discussed the need to hone the skills of workers to meet the standards required by the employers. Among the key interventions is to tap the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (TESDA) to come up with a training module for these workers.

Mr. Almario said the company is “positive” it can complete the project on schedule by the first half of 2021, when it is due to start delivering about 300 million liters of potable water a day to the Davao City Water District, the city’s water provider.

“Right now, we are (building) the water treatment facility in the Tamugan River site where we will be putting up the intake facility and in the third or fourth quarter, we will start with the pipe laying all across the city. This is the peak construction phase,” he said. — Carmelito Q. Francisco

Regional energy project backed by USAID, ADB to unlock private investment

THE ASIAN Development Bank (ADB) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) signed Tuesday an agreement to mobilize about $7 billion worth of investment for energy projects in Asia and the Pacific.

USAID Asia Bureau Acting Assistant Administrator Gloria Steele said with the targeted investment, the agencies hope to increase the capacity of deployed energy systems by six gigawatts, and increase regional energy trade by 10% over the next five years.

“What we would like to do is to use the resources to get the private sector to engage in the energy sector in their region. And through their engagement, we want to mobilize investments from the private sector, from businesses,” Ms. Steele said during the news conference Tuesday at the ADB office in Ortigas Center.

Director General of ADB’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Tomoyuki Kimura said the projects to be funded will “focus on clean energy, renewable energy and also energy access for all.”

For the Philippines, among other priority countries in the Indo-Pacific region, this would mean an expansion of renewable energy projects.

Asked if the ADB has found prospective investors here, Yongping Zhai, chief of the Energy Sector Group under the ADB’s Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, replied positively, adding: “We are looking at expanding clean energy and renewable energy in the Philippines.”

Mr. Zhai added that liquefied natural gas remains a viable option for the country to diversify its power mix.

“LNG and gas will be important to make the process clean; otherwise the share of coal will increase,” Mr. Zhai told reporters yesterday.

Mr. Zhai said the financing will be tapped via partnerships with the private sector.

These investments, in turn, will help mobilize other sources of finance. The ADB will focus on providing technical assistance.

“ADB will continue using our resources but with this additional resources from USAID, we will expand and strengthen the design of our projects, institution-side and capacity-side,” Mr. Zhai added.

Mr. Kimura noted that the deal will serve as a “useful instrument” for ADB to achieve its commitment in its Strategy 2030 to mobilize private sector financing, particularly for infrastructure intended for various sectors.

“We have actually a commitment to achieve a leverage range of 2.5, which means whenever we provide $1 of our money, we mobilize $2.5 particularly from the private sector,” Mr. Kimura added.

The initiative was launched yesterday and will be given five years to achieve the objectives under the agreement.

In 2018, ADB made commitments of new loans and grants amounting to $21.6 billion.

For the energy sector, ADB’s annual funding averages around $5 billion, according to Mr. Zhai, noting that half is allocated for clean and renewable energy while the remaining half is for putting up transmission lines and execution systems. — Janina C. Lim