Good Times, Uncertain Times: A Time to Prepare

By Yongzheng Yang
AS WE note in our recently released Regional Economic Outlook (REO), the Asia-Pacific region remains the main engine of the global economy, and near-term prospects have improved since our last report, in October 2017.

But there are many risks on the horizon, including a tightening of global financial conditions, a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.
In addition, over the longer run, Asian economies will face major challenges from population aging and slowing productivity growth, as well as the rise of the digital economy, which could yield huge benefits but also bring major disruptions.
Given the many uncertainties, macroeconomic policies should be conservative and aimed at building buffers and increasing resilience, while taking advantage of strong economic conditions to implement structural reforms to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
Regional growth is expected to remain strong at 5.6% in 2018 and 2019 — up by about 0.1% points from our previous forecast — supported by strong global demand and favorable financial conditions. As in other regions, inflation in Asia has largely remained subdued despite the pickup in growth.
We project that inflation will remain at 1.4% on average in advanced economies and 3.3% on average in emerging markets. Among the larger economies, China’s growth for 2018 is projected to ease to 6.6% from 6.9% in 2017, as financial, housing, and fiscal tightening measures take effect.
Growth in Japan has been above potential for eight consecutive quarters and is expected to remain strong this year at 1.2%.
And in India, after temporary disruptions caused by the currency exchange initiative and the rollout of the new Good and Services Tax, growth is expected to recover to 7.4%, making it once again the region’s fastest growing economy.
The Philippines is expected to remain one of Asia’s strongest performers, with growth projected at 6.7% in 2018 and 6.8% in 2019, driven by robust domestic demand and infrastructure investment from the “Build, Build, Build” initiative. Inflation is projected to be contained, reflecting an appropriate tightening in monetary policy in response to recent increases in inflation.
Risks to near-term growth in the region are balanced, but downside risks prevail over the medium term. On the upside, the global recovery could again prove stronger than expected.
The new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement and successful implementation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative — assuming debt sustainability and project quality are maintained — could support trade, investment, and growth. Asia, however, remains vulnerable to a sudden and sharp tightening in global financial conditions, while extended periods of easy financial conditions could risk a buildup of leverage and financial vulnerabilities. More inward-looking policies in major global economies, as highlighted by recent tariff actions and announcements, could disrupt international trade and financial markets and have a substantial impact on Asia, which has benefited so much from economic integration. Finally, geopolitical tensions could have serious financial and economic repercussions.
Over the longer run, growth prospects for Asia will be heavily affected by demographics, slowing productivity growth, and the rise of the digital economy.
Population aging is an important challenge, as many economies face the risk of “growing old before they grow rich,” and the adverse effect of aging on growth and fiscal positions could be substantial.
A second challenge is slowing productivity growth.
Finally, the global economy is becoming increasingly digitalized, and while some recent advances could be truly transformative, they also bring challenges, including those related to the future of work. Asia is embracing the digital revolution, albeit with significant heterogeneity across the region.
The current strong economic outlook provides a valuable opportunity to focus macroeconomic policies on building buffers, increasing resilience, and ensuring sustainability.
In many countries in the region, continued fiscal support is less urgent given strong economic performance, and policy makers should focus on ensuring that debt remains under control. Some countries should also focus on revenue mobilization to create space for infrastructure and social spending and to support structural reforms.
As for monetary policy, the policy stance can remain accommodative in much of the region given that inflation is generally still muted. Nonetheless, central banks should be vigilant; our analysis suggests that much of the undershooting of inflation targets in Asia has been explained by temporary, global factors, such as commodity prices and imported inflation, which could reverse.
Finally, tailored measures are needed to boost productivity and investment; narrow gender gaps in labor force participation; deal with the demographic transition; address climate change; and support those affected by shifts in technology and trade.
And to reap the full benefits of the digital revolution, Asia will need a comprehensive and integrated policy strategy covering information and communications technology, infrastructure, trade, labor markets, and education.
In the Philippines, policies are appropriately geared toward long-term stability and inclusion. Ongoing tax reforms will be crucial to generate the necessary revenues for infrastructure and social spending, such as on health and education. Monetary policy should remain focused on anchoring inflation expectations and protecting the BSP’s credibility through its policy rate decisions.
Furthermore, these policies could be supported by other complementary reforms.
Replacing the current rice import quota system with a tariff-based system would help reduce inflation pressures and support the poor by stabilizing the rice price. The revision of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) charter would give the central bank the necessary tools and mandate to maintain price and financial stability. Digital solutions in the public sector, including for the national retail payment system and tax administration, could also bring significant efficiency benefits to the broader economy and help promote financial inclusion.
 
Yongzheng Yang is the resident Philippine representative of the International Monetary Fund.