NCR retail price growth hit 2-year high in January

By Pierce Oel A. Montalvo, Researcher

Retail price growth of general goods in the National Capital Region (NCR) grew to its fastest pace in two years in January, fueled by the spike in food prices, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in a report on Friday.

Preliminary data from the PSA showed price growth in Metro Manila, as measured by the general retail price index (GRPI), rose by 2.1% year on year in January, faster than the 1.4% seen in the same period last year.

January’s retail price growth was also higher than December’s 1.5% print, and the fastest since the 2.5% reading in January 2024.

“The GRPI rose amid higher price adjustments of utilities, rents, restaurants, accommodation, healthcare, other products and services, and other contract price adjustments usually done at the start of the year,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

He added that higher US dollar/peso exchange rate and global crude oil prices amid geopolitical risks in January 2026 contributed to the uptick.

Marco Antonio C. Agonia, an economist at the University of Asia and the Pacific, said that the uptick may be attributed to the faster increase in food items, which reflects early 2026 pricing adjustments by food retailers.

“Part of the increase in food prices may also be linked to rising fish prices (which occupies an outsized weight in the food component) recently due to fishing bans implemented early in the year,” Mr. Agonia said in an e-mail.

On Feb. 16, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources lifted a three-month ban for sardines and other small species in the Visayan Sea and in waters off the Zamboanga Peninsula.

Under the food subindex, fish & fish preparation accounted for more than a tenth of the GRPI.

The PSA said that the uptrend in the annual growth rate of the GRPI in January 2026 was primarily brought about by the faster annual increase in the heavily weighted index of food at 3.6% from 1.8% in the previous month.

The food subindex accounted for over a third of the GRPI.

Quicker paces were also seen in the subindices for crude materials, inedible except fuels (2.8% from 2% in December), as well as manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (1.5% from 1.4%)

Meanwhile, the subindex for chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats deflated to 2.1% in January from 2.2% a month earlier.

Likewise, price growth for mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials dipped by 0.4%, reversing its 0.8% growth in December.

Price growth in January was steady in beverages and tobacco (1.4%), miscellaneous manufactured articles (0.8%), and machinery and transport equipment (0.7%).

For the coming months, Mr. Ricafort said year-on-year inflation is expected to moderate initially in 2026 following unfavorable base effects from last year, then potentially rise later in the year, though improved weather conditions could help offset food price pressures.

Philippine inflation quickened to an 11-month high of 2% in January, settling within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2%-4% target.

“Renewed geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions could provide upward pressure for domestic prices. This may work its way towards general retail prices if retailers have to pass on added costs to consumers,” said. Mr. Agonia.

The GRPI is based on 2012 constant prices.

The PSA uses the GRPI as a deflator in the National Accounts, particularly in the retail trade sector, and serves as a basis for forecasting.