Analysts warn DA’s rice import halt may stoke inflation, food insecurity

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporters

A PROPOSAL by the Department of Agriculture (DA) to suspend rice imports and restore higher tariffs could stoke inflation and worsen hunger, analysts said on Tuesday, as the Philippines continues to face food insecurity.

Marie Annette Galvez-Dacul, executive director of the University of Asia and the Pacific Center for Food and Agribusiness, said the import ban might benefit local farmers but risk triggering price increases.

“The proposed rice import halt and tariff hike may benefit farmers but could lead to higher rice prices and inflation, affecting low-income households the most,” she said in a Viber message. “It risks short-term food insecurity without immediate support or sufficient local supply.”

The presidential palace on Monday said the agency proposal aims to protect local rice producers from the influx of cheaper foreign rice, while ensuring a balance between farmer support and national food security.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar echoed concerns about the timing of the tariff hike, citing potential inflationary impacts and weather-related supply risks.

“Food inflation needs to be properly managed,” he said via Viber, adding that more extreme weather events are expected in the next three months, which could affect the country’s rice inventory.

He added that while raising tariffs might be justified in the future, the government should consider the timing. “We can start adjusting to a higher tariff on imported rice effective starting the harvest in November.”

Albay Rep. Raymond Adrian E. Salceda said the government could start hiking imported rice tariffs to support local producers after inflation slowed to a nearly six-year low in July.

“Now that inflation has eased, especially in food prices, we can afford to go back to policies that give our local farmers a fighting chance,” he said in a statement.

“The purpose of the lower tariff was to bring prices down,” said Mr. Salceda, who heads the House of Representatives special committee on food security. “Now that prices have dropped, it is only logical to restore tariffs to previous levels to support our rice farmers and maintain local production.”

He said the continued fall in rice prices is unsustainable for local producers, citing high input costs and falling farmgate prices.

The Philippines is the world’s biggest rice importer, and data from the Bureau of Plant and Industry showed the country had brought in 2.44 million metric tons (MT) of rice as of end-July. The Southeast Asian nation last year imported 4.7 million MT and is expected to import even more this year.

Local rice farmers have suffered due to the reduced rice tariffs, Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said.

“Farmgate prices for unmilled rice have plummeted to P6 to P8 per kilo, an unprecedented collapse in recent years,” he said in a Viber message. “From a previous range of P23-24 per kilo, this is a 60-70% drop, pushing many farmers into deeper financial distress.”

“We must shift the focus to protecting our local food producers — especially the farming communities growing palay, and raising pork and chickens,” he added, noting that food security should not depend on “short-term fixes” like tariff cuts to meet food demand.

On the other hand, Mr. Salceda’s recommendation to increase rice import tariffs fails to take into account the potential impact on consumers, who face higher retail prices, said Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
“It will reverse some of the gains that have been made on reducing retail prices, which since August last year have fallen by 18% — the monthly price of regular milled rice,” he said in a Viber message.

In June, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu-Laurel, Jr. told the House of Representatives he had recommended gradually restoring the rice import tariff to its original 35% rate from 15%, which was set under Executive Order No. 62 signed by President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. in June 2024.

The 35% rate, valid until 2028, is subject to review every four months.

Mr. Tiu-Laurel also advised timing tariff adjustments with harvests in Vietnam and Pakistan — major rice exporters to the Philippines — to mitigate market disruptions.

The rice import proposal will be discussed during President Marcos’ state visit to India from Aug. 4 to 8 where he is joined by Mr. Tiu-Laurel and Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto.

The debate comes as Philippine inflation slowed to 0.9% in July, the lowest since October 2019, according to data released on Tuesday by the Philippine Statistics Authority.

Food prices dropped, including a 15.9% year-on-year decrease in rice prices, helping ease overall price pressures.

Despite the decline in inflation, food insecurity remains a major concern. A Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey in April 2025 found that 20% of Filipino families — about 5.6 million households — experienced involuntary hunger at least once in the previous three months.

The rate includes 15.7% who experienced moderate hunger and 4.3% who reported severe hunger, particularly in Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao.

President Marcos had campaigned on a promise to reduce rice prices to P20 per kilo. While subsidized rice has been made available through Kadiwa outlets in some provinces, nationwide rollout remains limited and heavily dependent on government subsidies.

Meanwhile, Foundation for Economic Freedom said higher rice tariffs and an import ban could restrict supply and artificially drive prices up.

The Agriculture department push would neither improve rice output nor ensure long-term price stability, it said in a statement.

The government should not “repeat the mistakes of the past,” it said, noting that the liberalization of the rice sector in 2019 was a landmark reform that “dismantled a failed quota-based regime” that it said had caused price spikes and enabled rent-seeking behavior.

Protectionist policies will shield the sector from need to reform, the group said. “The problem in Philippine agriculture is not over-importation but under-productivity.”

The group said capping rice imports at 1 million MT would result in a supply gap of more than 3 million MT. This could raise Philippine inflation by 1.2 to 1.4 percentage points, it added.

Even if Mr. Marcos adopts the DA’s recommendations, the relief would be temporary, Mr. Tiu-Laurel said, citing the need to amend the Rice Tariffication law to give the National Food Authority (NFA) greater flexibility in releasing its rice stocks and influencing both rough rice and rice prices.

“When its regulatory powers are restored, the NFA could provide the DA with more precise industry data, including consumption patterns and price trends, as well as supply levels per region and province, which are invaluable in crafting more responsive policies,” he added.

He also said allowing the NFA to resume selling stocks bought from local farmers would free up warehouse space and let the agency procure more rough rice. — with Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza